Creating a Closer

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

First..., I apologize for vagueness and a lack of supporting information. I'm sitting in my truck waiting for a building inspection to show up (8:30-11:30) so I've been catching up on SoSH via iPhone.
Anyhow, the point I'm hoping to start here to get you smarter folks out there to explore and discuss is regarding "Closers". More specifically- where they come from, their development and how to create them for cost savings.
It seems to me that Henry Owens should have been converted to a BP arm in the minors about 2 years ago and to refine him as a one inning, 2 pitch guy. So where do dominant guys start out? I feel like the Sox- and us- are all too impatient with developing bullpen arms. I'm still very bullish on Barnes and think he could turn into, maybe not Kimbrel, but at least a next tier down. Then to continue to develop other types like him that become tradeable assets or step into the closers role after the current one walks into FA....
I'm betting that most of the dominant 9th inning arms out there struggled for many seasons before putting it all together.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Actually, taking a quick look at the top 15 or so saves leaders from 2017, only a few of them seem to fit your description. Most of them came out of the minor leagues as full-blown dominant relievers, though many of them had to do a couple of years' apprenticeship before getting the closer role.

 

[Drek717]

Just real quick, the top 10 relievers in baseball last year (by WAR, from Fangraphs):

1. Kenley Jensen - career reliever.
2. Craig Kimbrel - career reliever.
3. Roberto Osuna - bought by Toronto from a Mexican League team where he threw 19.5 innings over 13 appearances (so likely relief work) he primarily started in the minors, but skipped AA and AAA on his way to the big league bullpen. He's 22, so not a "failed" starter by any means.
4. Corey Knebel - career reliever.
5. Pat Neshek - 37 year old career reliever.
6. Chad Green - 26 with only 45 years of big league SP innings (that with a big HR/FB ratio skewing results from xFIP), but the closest fit to your description.
7. Andrew Miller - as any Sox fan should be familiar with, a failed starter conversion, first real clear one of the list.
8. Anthony Swarzak - his first really good year, but looks like a failed starter.
9. Mike Minor - Primarily failed as a starter due to injury, not performance. Had a great season when he was healthy in 2013.
10. Tommy Khanle - another career reliever.

Half of the top 10 are straight up career relievers. The rest includes a 22 year old and 26 year old who weren't even given time to fail as starters due to their bullpen potential. One of the other three has health circumstances attached with his transition.

Great relievers come from all over but most reliably the come from the draft. That used to be after the top 5 rounds. Now a lot of teams are grabbing relievers in the sandwich first and getting them to the majors by their second season's close. The Sox haven't had success in trying that in the past, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it tried quite soon as we're picking late first this year and a hard throwing relief type would be Dombrowski's best bet to impact the current talent window he's building towards.

 

[HangingW/ScottCooper]

Just real quick, the top 10 relievers in baseball last year (by WAR, from Fangraphs):

1. Kenley Jensen - career reliever.
2. Craig Kimbrel - career reliever.
3. Roberto Osuna - bought by Toronto from a Mexican League team where he threw 19.5 innings over 13 appearances (so likely relief work) he primarily started in the minors, but skipped AA and AAA on his way to the big league bullpen. He's 22, so not a "failed" starter by any means.
4. Corey Knebel - career reliever.
5. Pat Neshek - 37 year old career reliever.
6. Chad Green - 26 with only 45 years of big league SP innings (that with a big HR/FB ratio skewing results from xFIP), but the closest fit to your description.
7. Andrew Miller - as any Sox fan should be familiar with, a failed starter conversion, first real clear one of the list.
8. Anthony Swarzak - his first really good year, but looks like a failed starter.
9. Mike Minor - Primarily failed as a starter due to injury, not performance. Had a great season when he was healthy in 2013.
10. Tommy Khanle - another career reliever.

Half of the top 10 are straight up career relievers. The rest includes a 22 year old and 26 year old who weren't even given time to fail as starters due to their bullpen potential. One of the other three has health circumstances attached with his transition.

Great relievers come from all over but most reliably the come from the draft. That used to be after the top 5 rounds. Now a lot of teams are grabbing relievers in the sandwich first and getting them to the majors by their second season's close. The Sox haven't had success in trying that in the past, but I wouldn't be surprised to see it tried quite soon as we're picking late first this year and a hard throwing relief type would be Dombrowski's best bet to impact the current talent window he's building towards.

Thanks for putting this together. I'd argue though that the lack of consistency in the names on this list relative to previous years would tell us that we'd have to look at a lot more than last year.

 

[Sampo Gida]

Most are converted starters IMO. Chapman, Papelbon, Miller, Davis, Osuna, Britton, Mariano Rivera, Green, Barnes. Not necessarily failed starters although some are that. Conversion made either in minors or after a few MLB starts. There are of course some like Kimbrel and Holland who was a reliever from day 1 in the minors, or essentially so from early on

 

[Sampo Gida]

Found this

http://www.espn.com/mlb/story/_/id/21435779/who-why-your-team-next-closer-probably-total-surprise-even-him

."......every pitcher who has saved at least 30 games in a season in the 2010s. There are 66 of them, ranging from elite, Hall of Fame-bound closers (Kimbrel, seven times) to forgettable, one-year successes (Shawn Tolleson).

Sixteen of those 66 -- 24 percent -- never made a single minor league start. Some 40 percent made 20 or fewer minor league starts, and just about half never started at any level higher than high-A. (In the lowest minors, there's often little distinction between starters and relievers.) Two-thirds have never made a major league start, and 80 percent have made 10 or fewer starts in the majors. And of the converted starters, a notable handful -- Neftali Feliz, Trevor Rosenthal, Aroldis Chapman and Osuna -- were moved to the bullpen before they had failed as starters."

Edit-of those who began minor league career as reliever I suspect most were starters in college or high school who were moved to pen due to concerns over mechanics. No data though

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Most are converted starters IMO. Chapman, Papelbon, Miller, Davis, Osuna, Britton, Mariano Rivera, Green, Barnes. Not necessarily failed starters although some are that. Conversion made either in minors or after a few MLB starts. There are of course some like Kimbrel and Holland who was a reliever from day 1 in the minors, or essentially so from early on

Certainly I would agree that most top relievers are converted starters if you go back far enough. But these days the conversion is most often complete by the time the pitcher reaches the majors, and sometimes well before that. Chapman, for instance, has never started a game in the majors. Nor have Jansen, Kimbrel, Osuna, Giles, Allen, Robertson, Reed, Rosenthal, or Melancon. That's ten of the top 15 relievers by fWAR for the past three years. Of the other three, Betances and Familia each started only one game in the majors, in their rookie year. The only guys in that top 15 list with substantial major league starting experience are Miller, Britton and Davis.

 

[Sampo Gida]

Certainly I would agree that most top relievers are converted starters if you go back far enough. But these days the conversion is most often complete by the time the pitcher reaches the majors, and sometimes well before that. Chapman, for instance, has never started a game in the majors. Nor have Jansen, Kimbrel, Osuna, Giles, Allen, Robertson, Reed, Rosenthal, or Melancon. That's ten of the top 15 relievers by fWAR for the past three years. Of the other three, Betances and Familia each started only one game in the majors, in their rookie year. The only guys in that top 15 list with substantial major league starting experience are Miller, Britton and Davis.

Yeah, the link I provided above shows 2/3 never started a game in MLB. I guess I was more or less responding to a comment above that said most relievers are coming from the draft, implying they were relievers in HS or college , which I can find no evidence for. Just like the most talented position players in amateur baseball tend to be SS and for pitching the most talent is among starters. You can move these players to lesser roles and most of them do end up at other positions. Only the best of the best stay at SS or starting pitching

 

[Vermonter At Large]

Well, I think they are all converted starters at some point - nearly all pitchers who go beyond H.S. were stud starters in H.S. Some guys get converted in college, others enter pro ball as teenagers and get converted at some point in the minors. I think the prerequisites for success are more related to their skill set than anything - plus FB's are a must, and often a lack of either stamina or quality secondary pitches are a deciding factor. Control, consistency and approach are usually developed once the conversion is made. Nowadays, I think organizations cultivate their relievers much better than they used to.

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

I'm still wondering about who in the mL should be considered bullpen material and who to push as a starter. For about 3 years now I've been wanting Owens to be converted to a RP but alas.... I think he could have been dominant in that role.
What I'm really thinking about though is the value in developing a closer rather than trading or FA signing. We've had success with Papelbon (started what? 2 ML games?) and that's it.

 

[charlieoscar]

Certainly I would agree that most top relievers are converted starters if you go back far enough.

How far are you going back? It was pretty typical for starters to also be relievers in the earlier days. For example, Dizzy Dean, whose career essentially ran from 1932-41, appeared in 315 games during that period, 228 of which were starts. Even in more modern times, 1948-56, more than 17% of Mel Parnell's games were in relief. In 1961, which was the year before Dick Radatz ruled the BoSox bullpen, they had pitchers like Tracy Stallard (43 GP/14 GS), Billy Muffett (38 GP/11 GS), Galen Cisco (17 GP/8 GS).

You wanted outs, you put the best pitch who was available in the game and he was the starter. As time went on, the number of starters who also relieved dwindled until today we only see (generally) that in cases of emergency or very long games. Now you see relief pitchers making emergency starts. (And before Radatz, there was Hugh Casey of the Brooklyn Dodgers).

 

[Vermonter At Large]

How far are you going back? It was pretty typical for starters to also be relievers in the earlier days. For example, Dizzy Dean, whose career essentially ran from 1932-41, appeared in 315 games during that period, 228 of which were starts. Even in more modern times, 1948-56, more than 17% of Mel Parnell's games were in relief.

Did you use Dean and Parnell as deliberate examples here? Both had their careers shortened because their arms essentially fell off.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

How far are you going back? It was pretty typical for starters to also be relievers in the earlier days. For example, Dizzy Dean, whose career essentially ran from 1932-41, appeared in 315 games during that period, 228 of which were starts. Even in more modern times, 1948-56, more than 17% of Mel Parnell's games were in relief. In 1961, which was the year before Dick Radatz ruled the BoSox bullpen, they had pitchers like Tracy Stallard (43 GP/14 GS), Billy Muffett (38 GP/11 GS), Galen Cisco (17 GP/8 GS).

I meant "if you go back far enough in the individual pitcher's career," i.e., the same point VAL made about HS/college pitchers. The history of pitcher usage is a Pandora's box of a different color.

 

[charlieoscar]

Did you use Dean and Parnell as deliberate examples here? Both had their careers shortened because their arms essentially fell off.

Same with Radatz...but no, I was just trying to move the time frame.

Ellis Kinder was another Red Sox pitcher who started a number of games but also made a number of relief appearances in the same seasons before they converted him to relief full-time.

 

[charlieoscar]

I meant "if you go back far enough in the individual pitcher's career," i.e., the same point VAL made about HS/college pitchers. The history of pitcher usage is a Pandora's box of a different color.

OK, I missed (obviously) the point about going back in individual careers.But didn't VAL's point come after your post?