That was my takeaway too. We could have been listening to any one of the young core. He sounds like JB/JT/MS already. That grasp of the game applies at both ends and will help him grow.
C's pick Aaron Nesmith #14 overall
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
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It's a ways back now, but I was completely fooled by that Klay swap up above. Completely. I thought it sounded maybe a touch optimistic on his offensive game and a touch pessimistic on his defensive capability but man...
If this was true he'd have gone #1/2 overall.
So, obviously, as with every draftee, his floor is..... not an NBA player.
If we talk reasonable floor and ceiling though.....
I think his reasonable floor is probably... Danuel House? Josh Hart? Damion Lee? That type of player.
His reasonable Ceiling is probably.... Joe Harris? prime Danny Green?
If we talk reasonable floor and ceiling though.....
I think his reasonable floor is probably... Danuel House? Josh Hart? Damion Lee? That type of player.
His reasonable Ceiling is probably.... Joe Harris? prime Danny Green?
I don't think there's much reason to hope he can approach Danny Green defensively, but he can be better offensively.
I think there's a fair amount of reason to think he can be good defensively. His raw tools and work ethic are strong, and the Celtics have just been killing it with developing wings defensively. Particularly relevant to Nesmith is how much Grant improved moving laterally with guards last year (he mentioned it as a point of emphasis).
Robinson would shoot about .300 from the three if he were anything more than the other guy on the floor. Nesmith is perfectly capable of being the other guy on the floor.
I hope that is so; however, he's currently quite far from Danny Green level, who made all-defensive team and been consistently an upper-tier defender by analytics as well. But hey--if we're talking upside scenarios I guess we can dream on it.
Disclaimers in upside conversations are boring as hell, so let’s all assume going forward that everyone knows those caveats.
My point was mainly that I think, for whatever reason, his defensive potential was significantly underrated during the draft process, particularly given that he will be with the Celtics.
When I say prime Danny Green as his reasonable ceiling, I mean in terms of value/type. He probably would be a bit worse than Danny defensively but a better shooter. Same type though. If everything goes right for Nesmith, you're likely looking at a long good defender who is a knockdown 3pt shooter, but not much of a driver, mediocre rebounding and passing. That's Danny Green, the balance of shooting/defense might vary some, but that's around your reasonable best case scenario for type and quality.
And that's a really good outcome, especially if you get his age 24-30 years at a decent cost.
Yeah, this is what I pointed out in the Bey/Nesmith comparison after, Nesmith's shooting with averagish D is really valuable. Even with the averagish D he'd be an elite 3&D guy with that shot. (And as for the Klay comparisons, I do grant that it's his 1% outcome, but I have my doubts he could shoot like that as the secondary scoring option, luckily playing with Kemba and the Jay-Crew he ain't gonna be the second scoring option.)
What are the odds that Nesmith ever shoots 45% from three on 8 attempts per game? If that is his floor then that would be like what, the 90% outcome?
I find it ludicrous to think that his floor is what Duncan Robinson did this year. The dude wasn't sitting in the corner waiting for open threes. He has one of the quickest releases in the league and makes some ridulously difficult catch and shoot threes off of screens.
One thing that I find encouraging from the highlights is that he can comfortably dribble off his spot and find a new one when defenders are closing out. He's not going to be a slash and kick guy pressuring the defense, but he also doesn't view the basketball as an object that's not allowed to hit the floor. That's what makes him have a little bit better upside than a guy like Danny Green, who is flummoxed whenever he has to improvise outside of a catch and shoot three.
The defense I'm not worried about. Every perimeter player who has come into the Celtics system has played the best D of their career (caveat Kyrie). It seems like effort won't be an issue with the kid and that's really the only ingredient Brad needs.
I love the theory behind the pick and think that finding complementary two-way players around JT and JB should be the focus right now. Nesmith definitely fits the bill.
The defense I'm not worried about. Every perimeter player who has come into the Celtics system has played the best D of their career (caveat Kyrie). It seems like effort won't be an issue with the kid and that's really the only ingredient Brad needs.
I love the theory behind the pick and think that finding complementary two-way players around JT and JB should be the focus right now. Nesmith definitely fits the bill.
Duncan Robinson is also 26 years old. Maybe Nesmith won't shoot 45%, but if he shoots 42% or 40% with better defense than Robinson, you're looking at close to an equivalent player. Let's not forget that against tougher competition in the playoffs, Robinson was averaging 11.7 PPG on sub 40% threes while offering little else to the team. I get that he can warp the floor of a basketball game and that's the most important thing in the modern NBA, but I think he's kind of getting overrated. He's a nice piece for spurts of the game but not a starter.
Based solely on what I saw in the playoffs, any system that has Robinson #1 probably needs some tweaking. Maybe DPRM isn't calibrated for zones.
I don't disagree. However, him shooting 42% or 40% with better defense is not his floor
He was moving to daylight and shooting open threes. Which is what happens when you have three teammates that command all the defensive attention. That's Nesmith's role here. I don't think either player could ever do what Klay Thompson did before injuries wrecked him. If Nesmith is ever a good secondary scorer then Ainge basically won the lottery. But as the guy whose job is to take 6-8 FGA/game, all treys? He can do that.
Robinson shot eight threes a game, yes. But literally that's all he did. Let's not pretend that he was a primary, secondary, or even tertiary scorer. He was the other guy on the floor charged with getting open behind the line to be available for kickout threes. He wasn't some Steph Curry type firing that up in the face of defensive pressure with the burden of carrying the offense. If Robinson had to use 20 offensive possessions a game shooting, he ain't getting close to 45%. I mean unless we're discussing eFG%. That might get to 45%.
I will say that he needs to tighten up his footwork on slide step threes. In all the game tape I watched when he took that shot he was a touch slow getting to his new spot. Shooting off screens, catch & shoot, and pull-ups were all strengths. Luckily he'll be spending scrimmage time trying to guard Jayson and should pick up a few pointers on the slide step move.
One benefit to the crazy league timeline is we are not going to have to wait long to find out if our first round picks can hang with the big boys.
I think Nesmith is going to show he belongs from the jump, especially since he only has to do one thing on offense, catch and fire away.
I think Nesmith is going to show he belongs from the jump, especially since he only has to do one thing on offense, catch and fire away.
Nesmith's shot looked clean, and I liked that he had a few ways to get to it besides just spotting up statically.
On defense, you can see the gears churning: he's having to think really hard and is a half second behind all the time. Going to be a work in progress, but the Cs defensive development record for guys of his body type is probably the best in the league.
On defense, you can see the gears churning: he's having to think really hard and is a half second behind all the time. Going to be a work in progress, but the Cs defensive development record for guys of his body type is probably the best in the league.
Another encouraging debut. The defense was always going to lag the offense but at some point it’s going to “click”. I have much more confidence in Nesmith getting the defense side of things than I do of Langford fixing his broken shot. One of those guys needs to emerge for this team to take the next step.
He hit the offensive boards hard, which I wasn’t expecting from the scouting reports, and had a nice putback off one opportunity there. Defense was definitely a work in progress, but the length looks as advertised, one time he got beat but recovered for an impressive block, the length gives a little more leeway in terms of being able to make some plays while figuring out his positioning and such.
He reminds me of young Tatum in that there are some lateral issues to work on, and you can see why he wasn't heralded on that end, but the length really adds defensive upside. Of course that's contingent on his being able to stay in front of guys a lot better than now.
I am not saying he'll end up nearly as good as Tatum defensively; just that comparison. But even 2019-20 Romeo levels of D while shooting 3s would be an immediate rotation player.
if he's hitting 40% of 3s (on high volume) and playing Romeo's defense (RL looks a little bulkier?) that's a 6th man of the year candidate.
I liked his recovery after getting beat by Maxey. Good body control while using his wingspan. I'm interested in seeing AN's help defense and seeing if rotations/switching comes naturally to him (as they do for Tatum but not for JB)
Agreed, I was overall quite pleased with that game. The defense isn't all there but he showed some offensive handle I hadn't seen advertised and his length on defense was evident as well.
He's a rookie, and we don't know what this year will bring, but I was happy wtih the pick on draft night and just slightly happier after one game even with some warts
He's a rookie, and we don't know what this year will bring, but I was happy wtih the pick on draft night and just slightly happier after one game even with some warts
I think we have to be realistic that the defensive learning that is necessary for these rookies in the NBA is huge. They are also being thrown into it without summer league, a longer training camp, etc. They will struggle a lot - but that's okay. As long as the Celtics qualify for the playoffs, the regular season doesn't matter.
Luckily it works both ways and other teams will have the same problem. So while Nesmith might be worse on defense, his offense is probably benefiting from it.
Also, if Nesmith is hitting 40% of his 3s at high volume and playing Romeo level D, not only is he the 6th man of the year, he's probably ROY. Romeo looked competent on D last year, and that's with the injuries and missed play time. Of course there's a chance Nesmith would be inserted into the starting lineup if he's performing that way so 6th man might not be a possibility. That's a really good player though... like the 3rd young piece the team is missing to pair with Jaylen and Jayson good.
I also liked his post up and all the cuts/screens...
Stackhouse probably taught him not to stand on the 3pt line like a statue waiting for someone to feed him an open 3 (which won't happen in the NBA).
If he's as good as we all HOPE (not suggesting he will). Aaron may get more off. usage from the bench especially when Kemba returns...but it would be a great problem to have.
I'd be ecstatic if Nesmith averaged like 8 points a game shooting mostly 3s at a 38% clip and below average defense for like 20 minutes a night. That's a decent rookie year.
I guess it all depends on what people mean by high volume and how people rank Langford defensively. I thought he was average (I think he has the potential to be more than that).
If Nesmith ia playing 30 minutes a game, scoring 15-16 points on high volume 3s at 40%+ and playing average D in his rookie season with no summer league and a weird offseason... That's a guy who just hit his 20% outcome and is well on his way to becoming Klay Thompson.
I guess it all depends on what people mean by high volume and how people rank Langford defensively. I thought he was average (I think he has the potential to be more than that).
If Nesmith ia playing 30 minutes a game, scoring 15-16 points on high volume 3s at 40%+ and playing average D in his rookie season with no summer league and a weird offseason... That's a guy who just hit his 20% outcome and is well on his way to becoming Klay Thompson.
Yeah--gimme 7-10 points, with good shooting, defense that doesn't get him played off the court so he can play at crunch time in certain situations, and a few games where he's on fire and he hits for 20+ and I'll be happy.
I think I said something similar about Tatum--maybe a little bump on the points, but same idea.
I think I said something similar about Tatum--maybe a little bump on the points, but same idea.
I liked that he seemed comfortable crashing the rim and generally going to and hanging around the bucket. Confidence doesn't seem to be a problem. SSS of course.
His shot looks good. If his defense even gets in the ballpark of average, he'll earn minutes.
His shot looks good. If his defense even gets in the ballpark of average, he'll earn minutes.
Here are the rookie stats for the last guy we drafted #14 overall (the one who got a full offseason, training camp, and preseason): 2.5 ppg / 1.3 rpg / .4 apg
I'll do it for you. https://www.basketball-reference.com/players/l/langfro01.html
2.5 points on .350/.185/.720 shooting, 1.3 rebounds, 0.4 assists, 0.3 steals, 0.3 blocks in 11.6 minutes. He was also constantly injured and is still 9 days younger than Nesmith. Apples and oranges. I get it though. That's why I said I'd be ecstatic with those results. I think expecting more is expecting absolute best possible outcome.
I'd be ecstatic too considering the last Celtics rookie drafted outside the top 3 picks to score 8pts per game as a rookie was Ron Mercer in 1997-98, the last outside the top 10 was Eric Williams in 1995-96.
The last Celtics rookie drafted outside the top 3 to even make 4 pts per game was Marcus in 2014-15, last outside the top 10 was Sullinger in 12-13.
Thanks for the assist. I was trying to embed the table without success.
I just think we need to temper expectations a bit. The guy is coming off of a foot injury, apparently hasn't seen game action since January, was drafted less than a month ago, and hasn't had anything approaching the usual offseason / summer league / training camp / preseason . . . the kind that our rookies typically get before going on to make no impact in their first year. Yet reporters are asking Stevens if Nesmith is a rotation player and posters here are bandying his name around for a starter's role. I was pleased that he was more multidimensional than I feared, not only hitting a three but blocking a shot and crashing the glass. But he looked completely lost on defense, and hitting one three-pointer doesn't help if you give back two on the other end. He has enough length, intelligence, and effort to get better there, and Langford showed it is possible to do so as a rookie, so I'm not ruling out Nesmith. But, like last year, I think we're more likely to get an early contribution out of the older college player that we drafted in the twenties.
That's great but those kind of comparisons don't really do it for me.
For one, Nesmith's results will have zero to do with Langford also being picked 14th. That's like saying if the #3 pick one season (say a guy named Taysom Jatum), ends up being better than the guy drafted first (named, for a wild example, Farkelle Multz) then we should always want to pick 3rd, not first. Secondly, Nesmith is going to get a lot more run than Romeo did. If he gets that PT, I don't think him scoring 7 or 8 points is a stretch.
If I can sidetrack a bit, in the Pritchard thread, folks wondered why we seemed more hyped about Pritchard. Now, well, here we are.
That has to be bad luck. They've had so many picks. Then again, it could be that they've been competing despite the picks, so rookies haven't played.
I don't think we disagree and are really just arguing semantics on the word ecstatic. If Nesmith averages 2.5 ppg / 1.3 rpg / .4 apg in 11.6 minutes, I will not be ecstatic. It's probably the most likely outcome.
I do think there is a chance rookies get more burn this year due to the injuries and condensed schedule.
No, it’s like saying that it’s rare for a player selected where Nesmith was drafted to make that kind of a rookie impact.
You state that Nesmith is going to get a lot more run than Romeo did, but that is far from certain.
I don’t think it’s bad luck, although I think Olynyk belongs in there somewhere. It’s just an indication of the rarity of getting that kind of contribution from a developmental player selected at the end of the lottery.
I don’t think we disagree at all. I’d also be ecstatic with the numbers you mentioned earlier. I just think we need to be clear that the most likely outcome falls well short of there.
Sure, but what proportion of the minutes played in the NBA this season will be from rookies? I'd be surprised if its even 5%.
Last year, 21 rookies scored over 8 points a game. You can argue 3 don't qualify due to playing time. In 2018, 16 did.
2019: 21 (18)
2018: 16
2017: 20 (16)
2016: 13 (10)
2015: 9
2014: 11 (9)
2013: 7
2012: 11
2011: 12
2010: 8
It's not that rare.
Good catch, Olynyk in fact is the top guy on the list (8.7), I missed him because I was going off a "Celtics picks" list and Kelly was technically picked by Dallas then traded to us.
It’s been rare as a C’s fan. How many of those players and situations do you think are comparable to Nesmith and the C’s? The only one I see is Herro on the Heat.
On a quick search, I couldn’t determine whether we traded for the pick and then selected Olynyk or Dallas technically drafted him and shipped him to Boston.
It's rare in terms of players not drafted high and going to playoff teams I will say, looking at Nesmith's odds:
17 drafted rookies last year scored 8 PPG, only 5 of them drafted 14 or later, only 2 of the 5 on playoff teams.
I could check previous years, but my guess is that it's similar. Guys drafted outside the top 13 usually don't get major roles except on bad teams.