Dave Dombrowski knows more than you do

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
12,325
Yea of all of the guys traded, the only really regrettable loss is Shaw. Margot is basically JBJ but less power and faster, which is definitely a valuable player for the Padres in that stadium. He still has the most potential and is still young. I just pulled Lorenzo Cain's stats to compare his career trajectory, and man what a strange career that guy has had. Medicore first few years then legitimate star.

All of our big prospects were cashed in for players that made a big difference on the team, and we still have Benintendi and Devers. Really great job by Dombrowski building this team, hopefully we can get lucky on some of the guys we have in the minors and keep this window open through the early twenties.
Why mention Margot and not mention Moncada?

I just read the other guys write up and that's pretty harsh. Moncada has had just as much success as Margot and far more potential.
 

JohntheBaptist

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 13, 2005
11,390
Yoknapatawpha County
Haha, so Kinsler was a help for two games?

He was a steady glove, that certainly helped down the stretch. And outside my vitriol for him over the big error, it wasn’t hard to tell his bat was toast. I’ve gotten over it (since he helped us win) at least enough that I no longer wish he would die in a fire, but he had a 64 OPS+ and outside one good game against MFY he was even worse in playoffs.
He had a big 2B and RBI in a game won by one run in Game 4 of the LDS against NY, the clinching game.
He was 2-4 with a 2B and a run scored in the clinching game five against HOU.
He went 1-3 with an RBI in a 4-2 win in Game 2 of the WS.

All while playing excellent defense.
 

aminahyaquin

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 21, 2005
238
West Virginia
Well , you know, Big D hired Alex Cora. And I have decided that soon when I buy a really nice customized Red Sox top of the line jersey it is going to be number 20. As far as I am concerned, this was the year of a brilliant manager who developed a team that never quit , cohered as a relentless unit, and made us all proud. Cora has the best of Old School and New School B-Ball savvy and coaching brilliance, and I think Dave landed him. SO , a thrilling season and hopefully many more. We have the chance to be contenders and repeat champions over the next decade if we keep Captin Eo and the backbone of this squad stays healthy and hungry.
 

sean1562

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 17, 2011
2,832
Why mention Margot and not mention Moncada?

I just read the other guys write up and that's pretty harsh. Moncada has had just as much success as Margot and far more potential.
Fair enough, IDK why I have this Moncada "bust" label in my mind. I guess Margot's floor is lower since he can play a good CF. Moncada could very well take a step forward and be a Baez type player. Just really needs to improve defensively.
 

DanoooME

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 16, 2008
16,467
Richmond, VA
Well , you know, Big D hired Alex Cora. And I have decided that soon when I buy a really nice customized Red Sox top of the line jersey it is going to be number 20. As far as I am concerned, this was the year of a brilliant manager who developed a team that never quit , cohered as a relentless unit, and made us all proud. Cora has the best of Old School and New School B-Ball savvy and coaching brilliance, and I think Dave landed him. SO , a thrilling season and hopefully many more. We have the chance to be contenders and repeat champions over the next decade if we keep Captin Eo and the backbone of this squad stays healthy and hungry.
Come on, we all know the real reason is it's for Kevin Youkilis.
 

oumbi

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 15, 2006
2,841
Fair enough, IDK why I have this Moncada "bust" label in my mind. I guess Margot's floor is lower since he can play a good CF. Moncada could very well take a step forward and be a Baez type player. Just really needs to improve defensively.
Yes, with 21 errors Moncada lead the league for second baseman. He also lead the league for everyone in strikeouts with 217. He has ability and potential, but he also has a few hurdles to clear.
 

aminahyaquin

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 21, 2005
238
West Virginia
He had a big 2B and RBI in a game won by one run in Game 4 of the LDS against NY, the clinching game.
He was 2-4 with a 2B and a run scored in the clinching game five against HOU.
He went 1-3 with an RBI in a 4-2 win in Game 2 of the WS.

All while playing excellent defense.
Yes he diid and I agree with you, he was clutch at multiple pivotal moments in key games ~ it was great and hope his slump is a memory now
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
1,914
I'm sure most of this board has seen this report on Moncada potentially changing positions in 2019. Making room for Nick Madrigal is the primary reason, but it'd be a pretty substantial hit to his overall value. If he moves any further and ends up playing a corner outfield spot by his arb years (which is not being discussed at the moment), that's a much different prospect than we talked about at the time.

Between Moncada moving two rungs down the defensive spectrum and Kopech losing a year and a half to injury (which is obviously unfortunate and I don't mean to make light of it), the Sale trade has moved from being a slight-but-necessary overpay on DD's part to a pretty solid "win" — to me, anyway.

Espinoza, Moncada, Kopech and Margot were all Top 20 prospects, and have all disappointed somewhat. A lot of luck has gone into that outcome, but some scouting too. I wonder if Dave has been almost too good.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
12,325
I'm not sure it's that simple because the move didn't hurt Mookie Betts. A move from SS to 3b would benefit Manny Machado. If Moncada is a good RF and a bad 2b, the move is a positive. I think both Margot and Moncada will be above average players.

Also, TINSTAPP. Logan Allen might be the best pitcher we traded away and he was just a throw in.
 

Adrian's Dome

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 6, 2010
4,424
I'm sure most of this board has seen this report on Moncada potentially changing positions in 2019. Making room for Nick Madrigal is the primary reason, but it'd be a pretty substantial hit to his overall value. If he moves any further and ends up playing a corner outfield spot by his arb years (which is not being discussed at the moment), that's a much different prospect than we talked about at the time.

Between Moncada moving two rungs down the defensive spectrum and Kopech losing a year and a half to injury (which is obviously unfortunate and I don't mean to make light of it), the Sale trade has moved from being a slight-but-necessary overpay on DD's part to a pretty solid "win" — to me, anyway.

Espinoza, Moncada, Kopech and Margot were all Top 20 prospects, and have all disappointed somewhat. A lot of luck has gone into that outcome, but some scouting too. I wonder if Dave has been almost too good.
I don't think it's "luck" at all that DD traded away the blocked or incomplete/flawed prospects and kept Benintendi, Betts, and Devers. Moncada has always been iffy defensively and had contact issues, his prospect status was more from his potential than the actual results. Espinoza was way too damn young and undeveloped to project in any way, and Margot was a fringe (maybe average or slightly above, if you want to squabble) ML talent completely blocked by JBJ. You may be able to make an argument on Kopech, but given the volatility of pitchers and it being Chris freaking Sale, you still make that move ten times out of ten.
 

staz

Intangible
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 2, 2004
14,311
The cradle of the game.
Agree that all the right moves has DD's signature at the bottom of each page, but I suspect Tony La Russa gets a big time assist here - advising the coaches, mentoring Cora, even if he's just another sound baseball mind in the FO, I have to believe he's been a positive influence. In well-run organizations, good executives surround themselves with skilled people and value their input. In well-run organizations, good decision are rarely the work of one.
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
1,914
I don't think it's "luck" at all that DD traded away the blocked or incomplete/flawed prospects and kept Benintendi, Betts, and Devers. Moncada has always been iffy defensively and had contact issues, his prospect status was more from his potential than the actual results. Espinoza was way too damn young and undeveloped to project in any way, and Margot was a fringe (maybe average or slightly above, if you want to squabble) ML talent completely blocked by JBJ. You may be able to make an argument on Kopech, but given the volatility of pitchers and it being Chris freaking Sale, you still make that move ten times out of ten.
It is bad luck for Kopech and Espinoza that they needed TJS. Relevantly, it is good luck that Sale has not needed surgery of any kind.
 

simplicio

lurker
Apr 11, 2012
1,384
Yes, with 21 errors Moncada lead the league for second baseman. He also lead the league for everyone in strikeouts with 217. He has ability and potential, but he also has a few hurdles to clear.
Can you imagine how different this year would have been with Moncada and Devers playing the same infield in a fierce competition for most errors (and also no Sale)? Yikes. Thank you DD!
 

richgedman'sghost

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
May 13, 2006
1,463
ct
Lars Anderson was traded for Steven Wright who in retrospect despite his injuries has proven to be a pretty good pick up.
 

richgedman'sghost

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
May 13, 2006
1,463
ct
Yeah I was responding to a post that said that Cherington was a prospect hoarder who wasted the value of Lars Anderson by not trading him sooner. I thought I had quoted the post.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
12,244
Maine
Yeah I was responding to a post that said that Cherington was a prospect hoarder who wasted the value of Lars Anderson by not trading him sooner. I thought I had quoted the post.
Fair enough. Though I think the blame for "wasting" Anderson's value really falls to Theo more than Cherington. The Anderson/Wright trade was at the deadline in 2012, Cherington's first year at the helm. He got what he could for him, which as you point out turned into more than nothing. But Anderson's value cratered way before Cherington was in charge, considering he'd already been passed over by Rizzo as the jewel of the Gonzalez trade package back in December 2010.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
12,325
Fair enough. Though I think the blame for "wasting" Anderson's value really falls to Theo more than Cherington. The Anderson/Wright trade was at the deadline in 2012, Cherington's first year at the helm. He got what he could for him, which as you point out turned into more than nothing. But Anderson's value cratered way before Cherington was in charge, considering he'd already been passed over by Rizzo as the jewel of the Gonzalez trade package back in December 2010.
It also made sense to hold on to Lars Anderson after his 2007 and 2008 seasons. He looked special. Too bad his value cratered really fast in 2009. He went from a top 20 prospect to barely a top 100 prospect.
 

Saints Rest

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
It also made sense to hold on to Lars Anderson after his 2007 and 2008 seasons. He looked special. Too bad his value cratered really fast in 2009. He went from a top 20 prospect to barely a top 100 prospect.
I wonder how often this happens, especially when you move past the top 3-5. Prospects seem like stock options: If you can cash them in at the right time, you can make out big; but if you wait too long, you can get left with nothing.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
12,325
I wonder how often this happens, especially when you move past the top 3-5. Prospects seem like stock options: If you can cash them in at the right time, you can make out big; but if you wait too long, you can get left with nothing.
Generally speaking, hitters are more successful than pitchers and about 40-45% of prospects in the top 10 have successful careers and about 35-40% of prospects ranked 11-20 do. At least depending on what you read.

Here is a list of Sox prospects who cracked Baseball America's top 20 list since 1990. Pitchers in Italics. Keep in mind these list were made in preseason.
1991: Mo Vaughn 10th, Jeff McNeely 20th
1992: Frankie Rodriguez 9th
1994: Trot Nixon 13th
1997: Nomar Garciaparra 10th, Carl Pavano 17th
2003: Hanley Ramirez 19th
2005: Hanley Ramirez 10th
2006: Andy Marte 6th
2008: Clay Buchholz 4th, Jacoby Ellsbury 13th
2009: Lars Anderson 19th
2013: Xander Bogaerts 8th
2014: Xander Bogaerts 2nd
2015: Blake Swihart 17th
2016: Yoan Moncada 3, Andrew Benintendi 15, Rafael Devers 18, Anderson Espinoza 19th
2017: Benintendi 1, Moncada 2, Devers 18

Betts was top 10 in many unofficial midseason lists but was never top 50 in any official lists due to timing. Kopech and Margot were traded away before making the top 20. Devers made some top 10 lists from other publications too.

So the Sox success rate on top 10 hitting prospects is 5/6 and for top 20 is 10/14. This assumes Moncada, Devers are successful and Siwhart isn't.

A list of other players who were in the top 30 (31):
Rusney Castillo 21
Jackie Bradley Jr 31
Casey Kelly 24
Ryan Westmoreland 21 :(
Lester 22
Stenson 22 :(
Sadler 28
 
Last edited:

dhappy42

Straw Man
Oct 27, 2013
10,767
Michigan
I wonder how often this happens, especially when you move past the top 3-5. Prospects seem like stock options: If you can cash them in at the right time, you can make out big; but if you wait too long, you can get left with nothing.
And why this happens. By *this* I mean a top prospect falling off a cliff ability-wise with no injury. Seems to happen regularly in baseball, but hardly ever in football or basketball. Sure, tons of football and basketball prospects (say, top 100) don’t become stars, but do many of them totally wash out for non-injury or bad-behavior reasons?
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
12,325
And why this happens. By *this* I mean a top prospect falling off a cliff ability-wise with no injury. Seems to happen regularly in baseball, but hardly ever in football or basketball. Sure, tons of football and basketball prospects (say, top 100) don’t become stars, but do many of them totally wash out for non-injury or bad-behavior reasons?
In basketball, yes. But in basketball, there probably aren't 100 prospects anyway. The draft is only 2 rounds as is.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

Homeland Security
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2005
19,104
Portsmouth, NH
I think that list would be a huge point in favor of keeping Lars Anderson.
If you limit it to purely Sox prospects sure. Are the %’s you’re citing across the whole league? That seems high to me. There’s obviously a 20/20 hindsight to the whole thing but frankly I feel Theo missed the boat on Lars, considering roster composition at the time.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
12,325
If you limit it to purely Sox prospects sure. Are the %’s you’re citing across the whole league? That seems high to me. There’s obviously a 20/20 hindsight to the whole thing but frankly I feel Theo missed the boat on Lars, considering roster composition at the time.
They are across the whole league. There are a lot of guys on the list 2-3 times too though.

edit: what one considers a success plays a part into the percentages too.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
12,244
Maine
If you limit it to purely Sox prospects sure. Are the %’s you’re citing across the whole league? That seems high to me. There’s obviously a 20/20 hindsight to the whole thing but frankly I feel Theo missed the boat on Lars, considering roster composition at the time.
Just curious when you thought Theo should have pulled the trigger? Not a specific deal, but a time-frame. I only ask because Ortiz's wrist injury in 2008 and then his slow starts in 2009 and 2010 may have played a role in Theo wanting to hang on Anderson. Even with the poor year he had in 2009, Anderson and his potential probably still represented the best plan B if Ortiz never recovered (fortunately he did).
 

Papelbon's Poutine

Homeland Security
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2005
19,104
Portsmouth, NH
Just curious when you thought Theo should have pulled the trigger? Not a specific deal, but a time-frame. I only ask because Ortiz's wrist injury in 2008 and then his slow starts in 2009 and 2010 may have played a role in Theo wanting to hang on Anderson. Even with the poor year he had in 2009, Anderson and his potential probably still represented the best plan B if Ortiz never recovered (fortunately he did).
Good question and I guess I’d have to say I may be biased because I don’t think you save a chip like that to bring up as a DH or hold as a contingency for Youk.
 

theapportioner

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 9, 2006
4,884
Just curious when you thought Theo should have pulled the trigger? Not a specific deal, but a time-frame. I only ask because Ortiz's wrist injury in 2008 and then his slow starts in 2009 and 2010 may have played a role in Theo wanting to hang on Anderson. Even with the poor year he had in 2009, Anderson and his potential probably still represented the best plan B if Ortiz never recovered (fortunately he did).
Thought experiment also depends on who they could have traded for at peak Lars value, and if you want to stretch it further, any subsequent moves and non moves would have made a difference between the 2007 and 2013 championships. I suppose if they traded Anderson between 2008-9 and got the right pieces back they could have made another WS push in 09. After that, Sox were not doing so well and it probably wouldn't have made a difference at least from a WS win standpoint, at least IMO.
 

Minneapolis Millers

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
2,169
Twin Cities
Well... ok.

DD correctly targeted and then successfully waited out JDM, but the fit was pretty obvious, ownership gave him the necessary resources, and he benefitted from an unusually stingy market with few competitors. He reupped Moreland and Nunez on relatively team-friendly deals, although more than a few here griped that he gave Mitch 2 years with so many 1B available.

In season, he cut bait rather decisively with Hanley, which took guts but also the fiscal wherewithal. It's not like he snookered some team into trading for Hanley and then used the freed up money for a replacement. And the plan wasn't to just go with in-house replacements, the only option that would have existed for many teams. No, DD accepted the sunk cost knowing he would take on even more salary.

Nevertheless, IMO, his best work was in who he targeted and got for mid-season upgrades. Moving quickly to get Pearce proved particularly astute. Getting Eo as the only pitching upgrade, when many if not most people were screaming for BP help, was advanced GMing. Both guys were great fits and inexpensive in prospect and payroll costs.

Is that all enough to win GM of the year? I guess, along with the ending, of course. But we have to acknowledge that DD was playing with far greater available resources and flexibility than just about all other GMs this season. Makes it kind of an apples-to-oranges competition.
 

SydneySox

A dash of cool to add the heat
SoSH Member
Sep 19, 2005
15,547
The Eastern Suburbs
Well... ok.

DD correctly targeted and then successfully waited out JDM, but the fit was pretty obvious, ownership gave him the necessary resources, and he benefitted from an unusually stingy market with few competitors.
Your post contains a lot of 'buts' that incorrectly, I believe, insinuate DD himself had no influence in those areas. For instance, it was Dombrowski who read the market and negotiated the resources from ownership, and he's the one who waited out JDM.
 

chrisfont9

Member
SoSH Member
Well... ok.

DD correctly targeted and then successfully waited out JDM, but the fit was pretty obvious, ownership gave him the necessary resources, and he benefitted from an unusually stingy market with few competitors. He reupped Moreland and Nunez on relatively team-friendly deals, although more than a few here griped that he gave Mitch 2 years with so many 1B available.

In season, he cut bait rather decisively with Hanley, which took guts but also the fiscal wherewithal. It's not like he snookered some team into trading for Hanley and then used the freed up money for a replacement. And the plan wasn't to just go with in-house replacements, the only option that would have existed for many teams. No, DD accepted the sunk cost knowing he would take on even more salary.

Nevertheless, IMO, his best work was in who he targeted and got for mid-season upgrades. Moving quickly to get Pearce proved particularly astute. Getting Eo as the only pitching upgrade, when many if not most people were screaming for BP help, was advanced GMing. Both guys were great fits and inexpensive in prospect and payroll costs.

Is that all enough to win GM of the year? I guess, along with the ending, of course. But we have to acknowledge that DD was playing with far greater available resources and flexibility than just about all other GMs this season. Makes it kind of an apples-to-oranges competition.
The relievers thing is interesting. I can't find anything too definitive but Dombrowski was hinting back in July that they looked into plenty of possibilities, and obviously any decent GM kicks lots of tires. My suspicion is that they probably did try to trade for some relievers and were rebuffed or outbid. Who knows. But I doubt Dombro went in with a plan of nabbing Eovaldi and calling it good, assuming that the existing guys would get hot in October.

That said, he clearly had enough confidence to go with the guys he had and not make any panic deals. And they do appear to have targeted Eovaldi, albeit as a swingman (or so they said at the time), so for that alone plus his offseason stuff he deserves plenty of credit. Plus the Pearce signing. Dombrowski got very lucky along the way, but clearly knew what he was doing too. Chapeau to him.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

Homeland Security
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2005
19,104
Portsmouth, NH
Well... ok.

DD correctly targeted and then successfully waited out JDM, but the fit was pretty obvious, ownership gave him the necessary resources, and he benefitted from an unusually stingy market with few competitors. He reupped Moreland and Nunez on relatively team-friendly deals, although more than a few here griped that he gave Mitch 2 years with so many 1B available.

In season, he cut bait rather decisively with Hanley, which took guts but also the fiscal wherewithal. It's not like he snookered some team into trading for Hanley and then used the freed up money for a replacement. And the plan wasn't to just go with in-house replacements, the only option that would have existed for many teams. No, DD accepted the sunk cost knowing he would take on even more salary.

Nevertheless, IMO, his best work was in who he targeted and got for mid-season upgrades. Moving quickly to get Pearce proved particularly astute. Getting Eo as the only pitching upgrade, when many if not most people were screaming for BP help, was advanced GMing. Both guys were great fits and inexpensive in prospect and payroll costs.

Is that all enough to win GM of the year? I guess, along with the ending, of course. But we have to acknowledge that DD was playing with far greater available resources and flexibility than just about all other GMs this season. Makes it kind of an apples-to-oranges competition.
Ha, what flexibility did he have? He wasn’t handed a blank checkbook and a loaded farm system to go out and reload. They allowed him to cross the barrier but that doesn’t mean they said he could go as far as he wanted and he didn’t have the chips to do so anyway. Jesus man, you’re really going to try to de strays the job he did? Theo, Friedman, Cashman, etc were otherwise not able to play on his field. Come on dude.
 

riboflav

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 20, 2006
7,780
NOVA
Hindsight is 20/20 but he appears to have handcuffed the team for the next several years with bad contracts for Sale and Eovaldi in addition to hurting the farm system with trades.
Given they won the WS 10 months ago, which ones has DD screwed up? I'm not saying DD is perfect and he has lost on some trades like all GMs but at least be specific.
 

nattysez

Well-Known Member
Silver Supporter
SoSH Member
Sep 30, 2010
4,566
Dombrowski was hired in August 2015. Per Baseball Ref, here are the trades the Sox have completed since then:

Traded Alejandro De Aza to the San Francisco Giants. Received Luis Ysla (minors).
Traded Logan Allen, Carlos Asuaje, Javy Guerra and Manuel Margot to the San Diego Padres. Received Craig Kimbrel.
Traded Jonathan Aro and Wade Miley to the Seattle Mariners. Received Roenis Elias and Carson Smith.
Traded Wendell Rijo (minors) and Aaron Wilkerson to the Milwaukee Brewers. Received Aaron Hill and cash.
Traded Jose Almonte (minors) and Luis Alejandro Basabe (minors) to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Received Brad Ziegler.
Traded Anderson Espinoza (minors) to the San Diego Padres. Received Drew Pomeranz.
Traded Pat Light to the Minnesota Twins. Received Fernando Abad.
Traded Luis Alexander Basabe (minors), Victor Diaz (minors), Michael Kopech and Yoan Moncada to the Chicago White Sox. Received Chris Sale.
Traded Yeison Coca (minors), Josh Pennington (minors), Mauricio Dubon and Travis Shaw to the Milwaukee Brewers. Received Tyler Thornburg.
Traded Clay Buchholz to the Philadelphia Phillies. Received Josh Tobias (minors).
Traded Gregory Santos (minors) and Shaun Anderson to the San Francisco Giants. Received Eduardo Nunez.
Traded Gerson Bautista, Jamie Callahan and Stephen Nogosek to the New York Mets. Received Addison Reed.
Traded Deven Marrero to the Arizona Diamondbacks for Josh Taylor
Traded Roenis Elias to the Seattle Mariners for cash
Traded Santiago Espinal (minors) to the Toronto Blue Jays. Received Steve Pearce and cash.
Traded Jalen Beeks to the Tampa Bay Rays. Received Nathan Eovaldi.
Traded Ty Buttrey and Williams Jerez to the Los Angeles Angels. Received Ian Kinsler and cash.
Traded Esteban Quiroz (minors) to the San Diego Padres. Received Colten Brewer.
Traded Blake Swihart and international bonus slot money to the Arizona Diamondbacks. Received Marcus Wilson (minors).
Traded Elio Prado (minors) and Noelberth Romero (minors) to the Baltimore Orioles. Received Andrew Cashner and cash.

Other than the Thornburg disaster and trading Elias for cash to Seattle, I'm not sure you can look at any of those trades and say that DD ever has traded guys that amounted to something (or are close to doing so) for guys who did not.

To me, the failing this list points out is that DD has given away too many bullpen arms. Ty Buttrey, Williams Jerez, Jalen Beeks, Shaun Anderson, and Roenis Elias all might be in the Sox pen right now if they hadn't been traded. However, I'm not sure any of those guys are so good that you'd sacrifice the WS for them, and other than Elias, those arms netted Kinsler, Eovaldi and Nunez -- guys who were big contributors last year. Further, bullpen arms should (in theory) be the easiest thing to replace via free agency, so those are the arms you can most afford to trade.
 

dano7594

lurker
Jul 15, 2005
87
The Eovaldi extension is questionable because of injury history. But come on the Bogaerts extension was beyond brilliant, because of Boras no one saw that coming. Had Xander not signed he could have been looking at $250 million minimum this off season.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
24,215
Hingham, MA
The Eovaldi extension is questionable because of injury history. But come on the Bogaerts extension was beyond brilliant, because of Boras no one saw that coming. Had Xander not signed he could have been looking at $250 million minimum this off season.
Correct. The Sale extension is worthy of its own thread though, because that is looking like an unmitigated disaster.
 

dano7594

lurker
Jul 15, 2005
87
Agreed. The Sale extension is probably its own discussion. At the time I was good with it. I think at this point Sale may need to reinvent himself. Being what he is now, what do you think he would have commanded this offseason on the open market?
 

BaseballJones

goalpost mover
SoSH Member
Oct 1, 2015
8,757
Correct. The Sale extension is worthy of its own thread though, because that is looking like an unmitigated disaster.
It was odd at the time, and many people commented on it. He had had some red - or at least yellow - flags and the team, perhaps thinking it was temporary and represented a great opportunity to lock him up at a "reasonable" price, extended him. But the price wasn't really that reasonable. It was market value for a *free agent* starter in his prime. Now we are looking at a $30 million a year pitcher locked in for four more years who frankly, isn't very good. I mean this year, he just hasn't been very good. Not just un-Sale-like, but simply not very good.
 

Monbonthbump

lurker
Nov 6, 2005
175
Lincoln,NE
OK, just an idea which will hopefully never come to pass. If Sale continues along his present course as a starter and we are stuck with him for another four years because of the contract, does anyone think he could be become a reliever like Andrew Miller was in his prime? It could redeem some of the value of a contract which is beginning to seem like an albatross at this point.
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2007
18,781
The wrong side of the bridge....
It was odd at the time, and many people commented on it. He had had some red - or at least yellow - flags and the team, perhaps thinking it was temporary and represented a great opportunity to lock him up at a "reasonable" price, extended him. But the price wasn't really that reasonable. It was market value for a *free agent* starter in his prime. Now we are looking at a $30 million a year pitcher locked in for four more years who frankly, isn't very good. I mean this year, he just hasn't been very good. Not just un-Sale-like, but simply not very good.
I want to quibble with the "market value for a free agent starter in his prime" part. 5/$150M would be market value, these days, for a #2 or at most #1.5 FA pitcher in his prime -- it's very close to the deal Patrick Corbin signed last winter, for example. It's certainly nowhere the deal it would have been reasonable for Sale to expect if he weren't under suspicion of being damaged goods. I think some of us (raises hand) commented favorably on the deal at the time, not so much because we thought it was a good idea to extend him at all, but because it seemed inevitable the Sox were going to extend him and this seemed like a much less onerous commitment than we feared. But it still looks pretty onerous now.
 

donutogre

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 20, 2005
2,062
Philadelphia
I 100 percent understand the concern about Sale and questioning the extension going forward, I truly do. @BaseballJones puts it well -- we paid him like he was on the open market, even though we had him under contract still. (EDIT: Though @Savin Hillbilly note that the contract still isn't like it would have been paying him on the open market in all likelihood even though his 2018 season had some concerns.)

That said, baseball history is littered with guys who've had some pretty shitty full calendar years who've come back from it and been productive. Despite Sale's pedestrian ERA+ of 103, he's still leading MLB in K/9, which tells me he still has some serious stuff. His WHIP is up, but it's still only 1.14 and his FIP is a much better looking 3.55. Point being, he's having a real bad stretch here, but he's not like pulling a Porcello or anything.

Reminds me a bit of Verlander's 2014 season, with its 85 ERA+ -- and a much uglier WIHP of 1.4. And he clearly came back from that. I also seem to remember the vibe around Greinke being that he was done after 2016, or Lester after 2012, or Sabbathia after his multiple injury-plagued seasons a few years back.

This is all to say that I think it's a little too soon to think that Sale is going to be so bad for the remainder of the contract that it was a definite mistake, or that he's going to only be useful as a bullpen piece. He clearly has some work ahead of him as a lot of pitchers have when they hit their 30s and need to reinvent themselves to some extent. But given the guy's track record, I'm not ready to bet against him.