Denver Nuggets (2) vs Minnesota Timberwolves (3) - 2024 WC Second Round

[InstaFace]

Our first confirmed second-round matchup.

NBA.com series preview here.

Schedule (will try to edit with network / time when known):

Game 1: Wolves vs. Nuggets, Saturday, May 4 (7 p.m., TNT)
Game 2: Wolves vs. Nuggets, Monday, May 6 (10 p.m., TNT)
Game 3: Nuggets vs. Wolves, Friday, May 10 (9:30 p.m., ESPN)
Game 4: Nuggets vs. Wolves, Sunday, May 12 (8 p.m., TNT)
Game 5: Wolves vs. Nuggets, Tuesday, May 14 (TBD, TNT) *
Game 6: Nuggets vs. Wolves, Thursday, May 16 (8:30 p.m., ESPN) *
Game 7: Wolves vs. Nuggets, Sunday, May 19 (TBD, TBD) *

Series outcome odds (BetMGM): Nuggets -225, Timberwolves +180 (implied: Nuggets 66%)


Preview - Inside the NBA (6'):

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=Aw6uSXlYHUI



Preview - Minnesota fan podcast / show (23'):

View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=aU_Oyb8BZYc


edit: added times / broadcaster for first 4 games

 

[InstaFace]

MIN coach Chris Finch tore his patellar tendon in the final moments of Game 4 vs the Suns in a collision with Mike Conley, will get surgery tomorrow (Wednesday), and is expected to at least travel with the team on Friday and might make it onto the bench depending on how things go.

https://www.espn.com/nba/story/_/id/40056029/sources-wolves-chris-finch-surgery-collision

(h/t @tims4wins )

 

[j-man]

nuggets in 7 unlees minn keeps playing d like they did in game 3

 

[Senator Donut]

I'm extremely susceptible to being prisoner of the moment, but this feels like the West Finals. The Nuggets and Wolves definitely had the best opening series of any team, while the Clippers and Mavs seem to have huge question marks. OKC took care of business against compromised competition, so they are harder to evaluate at this time (and could easily make me look like an idiot). I'm excited to watch this as a neutral.

 

[nattysez]

It's crazy that this is a second-round matchup. I don't love the chances of the team coming out of this series in the WCF given how brutal this series is going to be. The teams have split their season series the past two years, so everything points to this being really close.

I think it's worth noting that Denver didn't exactly crush the Lakers -- they were only a couple of shots away from that being a real series.

Murray's health may be the key to this series, because the Nuggets really need his scoring and have almost no bench.

 

[lovegtm]

I'm pumped and jacked for this series. Been getting more and more bullish on Minny as Ant takes a leap, KAT figures out more how to contribute to winning on both ends, and McDaniels is just a total wrecking ball on D.

I'm picking Minnesota in 6--they close it out at home.

 

[dhellers]

I'm extremely susceptible to being prisoner of the moment, but this feels like the West Finals. The Nuggets and Wolves definitely had the best opening series of any team, while the Clippers and Mavs seem to have huge question marks. OKC took care of business against compromised competition, so they are harder to evaluate at this time (and could easily make me look like an idiot). I'm excited to watch this as a neutral.

I do wonder if OKC may be undervalued, simply due to health and the road forward.
Whoever comes out of Dallas/LAC ... are they really to be feared?
And Minny/Denver is going to be a battle, with Denver not necessarily the faves (how long can Murray manage his injuries?)

 

[lovegtm]

Does the fact that Minny/Denver will be a "battle" really make the road forward for either sooo much harder? They're not going out of their way to injure each other, and Murray would have to play against any of Min/OKC/LAC/Dallas for Denver to have any chance. He can't rest and have Denver still make it through.

 

[BaseballJones]

This should be a phenomenal series. Minnesota has two legit bigs that can at least kinda sorta make life miserable for Jokic. Should be awesome stuff.

 

[tims4wins]

Mon-Fri gap is DUMB

 

[j-man]

Mon-Fri gap is DUMB

facts

 

[PedroKsBambino]

I'm pumped and jacked for this series. Been getting more and more bullish on Minny as Ant takes a leap, KAT figures out more how to contribute to winning on both ends, and McDaniels is just a total wrecking ball on D.

I'm picking Minnesota in 6--they close it out at home.

If I were a Denver fan this is the West matchup I'd least want, for reasons you describe. And that they have the right combo (widebody PF plus rangy C) to defend Jokic best.

 

[lovegtm]

If I were a Denver fan this is the West matchup I'd least want, for reasons you describe. And that they have the right combo (widebody PF plus rangy C) to defend Jokic best.

Also for Murray. He's going to be in McDaniels hell.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

Does the fact that Minny/Denver will be a "battle" really make the road forward for either sooo much harder? They're not going out of their way to injure each other, and Murray would have to play against any of Min/OKC/LAC/Dallas for Denver to have any chance. He can't rest and have Denver still make it through.

It could. JT mentioned in the bubble that the TOR series was so grueling - particularly mentally - that he was really drained for the MIA series.

 

[lovegtm]

It could. JT mentioned in the bubble that the TOR series was so grueling - particularly mentally - that he was really drained for the MIA series.

Fair point, this one is going to require sustained, intense focus from both teams.

 

[brendan f]

Yeah, Jokic actually looked human last night, maybe just an off-night but with Murray hobbled and a relatively weak bench, he may have to be transformative to get them back to the finals. Some people forget how easy a road they had last year, basically facing this same Lakers team in the conference finals and little else. This year will be a much stiffer test at each step. Wouldn't be shocked to see them lose to the Wolves or the Thunder.

 

[m0ckduck]

This feels like a series where we come away feeling Minn should have won, but where they make a few dumb mistakes and lose in 7. It's close enough that I would pick T-Wolves if they had HCA.

 

[benhogan]

Yeah, Jokic actually looked human last night, maybe just an off-night but with Murray hobbled and a relatively weak bench, he may have to be transformative to get them back to the finals. Some people forget how easy a road they had last year, basically facing this same Lakers team in the conference finals and little else. This year will be a much stiffer test at each step. Wouldn't be shocked to see them lose to the Wolves or the Thunder.

Yea 3 Play-In teams + the Suns last season for the Nuggets, when they had a healthier Murray and deeper bench (Bruce Brown/Jeff Green). Agree, that the Lakers were their sternest test last year.

The Wolves defense, depth & size match up well with Denver. Then either OKC or the Mavs will be waiting. Whoever survives the WC should be beaten to hell.

Note: Denver & Minn squared off 3X in March with Denver winning twice. Jokic destroyed them in all 3 games (41, 35, 32)

 

[The Raccoon]

The Wolves defense, depth & size match up well with Denver. Then either OKC or the Mavs will be waiting. Whoever survives the WC should be beaten to hell.

 

[wade boggs chicken dinner]

This feels like a series where we come away feeling Minn should have won, but where they make a few dumb mistakes and lose in 7. It's close enough that I would pick T-Wolves if they had HCA.

Seems like a series where we can take all of the posts about BOS's crunch-time offense, scratch out "BOS" and replace it with "MIN".

Of course that assumes that Murray is healthy. If he isn't healthy, I'd bet on MIN.

 

[the moops]

Note: Denver & Minn squared off 3X in March with Denver winning twice. Jokic destroyed them in all 3 games (41, 35, 32)

Just a note on this. KAT didn't play in any of those games and Gobert didn't play in one. Not that KAT can provide any defense on Jokic though

 

[Curtis Pride]

There can be only one.

 

[benhogan]

View attachment 81883

My post was @ElUno20 approved
(trust me I'd love to see Kyrie & Luka get bounced, while the "Crypt" still hosted playoff basketball)

 

[Kliq]

I think the Wolves sweeping the hapless Suns have made them a tad overrated, I'd be surprised if this series goes seven.

Denver's ability to execute great offense in crunch time is what makes them so special, as we saw in the Laker series, the Lakers were in every game...and then they lost as Denver routinely got great shots off down the stretch. The gap between Minnesota and Denver is huge in that regard, Minnesota's offense during the regular season was pretty mediocre and I'm not sure how effective they will be in a close game against Denver. Minnesota will need a lot of things to go right to win this series, I think Denver should be strongly favored.

 

[snowmanny]

Mon-Fri gap is DUMB

This series is starting before the other second round series and they have to drag it out.

 

[tims4wins]

This series is starting before the other second round series and they have to drag it out.

You can do that with 2 day gaps

 

[Ale Xander]

"Should" be Mon-Thu-Sat unless the venue is being used for something else on Thu.

 

[snowmanny]

To which 3 games are you referring? If it’s 2,3,4 then you have a gap from Saturday to Tuesday for Game 5. I guess that’s slightly better.

 

[InstaFace]

This feels like a series where we come away feeling Minn should have won, but where they make a few dumb mistakes and lose in 7. It's close enough that I would pick T-Wolves if they had HCA.

MIN +180 strikes me as good value. I'm not saying they should be favored, but I don't think they're twice as likely to lose as they are to win, I think it's maybe 55-45 DEN.

 

[lovegtm]

MIN +180 strikes me as good value. I'm not saying they should be favored, but I don't think they're twice as likely to lose as they are to win, I think it's maybe 55-45 DEN.

I'm trying to think of the right way to put this: if Minnesota wins in 5, it's going to feel really obvious in hindsight. I'm not saying they will win, or should be favored, but rather that people are having too hard a time imagining what Minnesota dominance would look like, even though it's very possible.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

You can do that with 2 day gaps

Then you’d have to move one of the other games that are scheduled unless you want them overlapping which obv the networks don’t want to do.

 

[HomeRunBaker]

MIN +180 strikes me as good value. I'm not saying they should be favored, but I don't think they're twice as likely to lose as they are to win, I think it's maybe 55-45 DEN.

Espeically with Murray being one misstep away from being out for the series/season.

 

[lovegtm]

Espeically with Murray being one misstep away from being out for the series/season.

This is the whole issue with Denver: he's on the edge of health, and they are completely cooked if he has to miss even a few games, at any point.

That's sort of true for all contenders, but we're seeing Milwaukee take a couple games without 1-2 top guys, and Boston be fine without KP. Minnesota could probably survive some without Towns, OKC without SGA or JDub (for a bit).

Denver is just so, so dependent on Murray.

 

[InstaFace]

Bump. Game 1 at 7:00pm tonight. Something to do if you're pacing around nervously with the Bruins on your brain.

 

[ifmanis5]

Good start for Minny.

 

[tims4wins]

Wow

 

[Mystic Merlin]

Ant is eating up Murray.

 

[ifmanis5]

Ant is him.

 

[bankshot1]

Minn v Denver

Brings up thoughts of the Frozen Four and not two NBA title contenders.

I guess I should recalibrate

 

[tims4wins]

It’s been said plenty round these parts but I have not understood the crowning of Denver.

 

[bankshot1]

It’s been said plenty round these parts but I have not understood the crowning of Denver.

Superb goaltending

 

[Euclis20]

It’s been said plenty round these parts but I have not understood the crowning of Denver.

I'll keep saying it too: Denver hasn't won a playoff series against a team with more than 47 regular season wins since the bubble (Minnesota won 56 games this year). They've got the best player and the best crunch time offense in the league, and the lazy analysis is that that is all you need to be the best team. They're gonna get tested in this series in a way that no one has done so during this run of theirs, I don't think they can keep going down big against a defense like the Wolves'.

 

[tims4wins]

I'll keep saying it too: Denver hasn't won a playoff series against a team with more than 47 regular season wins since the bubble (Minnesota won 56 games this year). They've got the best player and the best crunch time offense in the league, and the lazy analysis is that that is all you need to be the best team. They're gonna get tested in this series in a way that no one has done so during this run of theirs, I don't think they can keep going down big against a defense like the Wolves'.

Like.

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

I wonder how good Jokic would be if he liked basketball.

 

[OnWisc]

I wonder how good Jokic would be if he liked basketball.

Edwards, too.

 

[dhellers]

I'll keep saying it too: Denver hasn't won a playoff series against a team with more than 47 regular season wins since the bubble (Minnesota won 56 games this year). They've got the best player and the best crunch time offense in the league, and the lazy analysis is that that is all you need to be the best team. They're gonna get tested in this series in a way that no one has done so during this run of theirs, I don't think they can keep going down big against a defense like the Wolves'.

True, but they took care of business quite well (and tied for best record in the west this year is nothing to sneeze at).


Denver could get away with 12 minutes or so of engaged bball against the thin and aging Lakers.
That will NOT be enough against the TWolves.
And the last several minutes (13-0 run!) suggest that when they turn it on they can play with Minn.

Thus: can Denver play like this for 24-36 minutes? Do they have the depth, and can Murray take the wear and tear?

 

[Imbricus]

Boy, the Wolves looked invincible the first few minutes, then fell apart.

 

[DeJesus Built My Hotrod]

Reggie Jackson is destroying the Minnesota Timberwolves

 

[OnWisc]

Reggie Jackson is destroying the Minnesota Timberwolves

Mr. May

 

[DennyDoyle'sBoil]

That stretch of Minny turnovers where they just gave the ball to Denver over and over kind of hurt.