Joel Sherman on just what we've been talking about:
http://nypost.com/2014/05/05/benching-jeter-get-ready-for-girardis-major-conundrum/
http://nypost.com/2014/05/05/benching-jeter-get-ready-for-girardis-major-conundrum/
Derek Jeter: Countdown to Retirement
- Thread starter jon abbey
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terrynever said:
The steaks in Omaha aren't any better than the steaks they ship out to NYC, Chicago, or other cities with top-notch steakhouses. If you're going to travel for a steak, for God's sake, don't go to fucking Omaha. That's like flying to industrial China to buy a cell phone.
Jeterism can turn even a reasonably intelligent person into a lump of intellectual mush. They'll do studies on it and write books about it one day. But for now, those who are afflicted with the disease are providing endless entertainment while being forced to watch Jeter limp to the finish line.
I had a Jeterian discussion with a guy sitting next to me at my local bar this past weekend. I pointed out using stats and analysis how terrible Jeter has been and probably will be this year. His retort: "Yeah... but the intangibles". Shoot me.glennhoffmania said:
I really wanted Beltran to PH for Jeter with the bases loaded last night. I didn't even feel guilty for wishing it.
From Newsday's baseball blog (posted 5/8). Mostly covering what's been said here but adding that there appears to be a 2014 update to the book on Jeter:
Since that post, he's gone 1 for 9 in two games with another single, so the XBH stats haven't changed.
Since that post, he's gone 1 for 9 in two games with another single, so the XBH stats haven't changed.
I just tried to read that blog post and it asked me to subscribe. So I went to the subscription page out of curiosity. A print and unlimited digital access subscription is $2.49 per week. A digital only subscription is $3.49 per week. I don't understand their pricing model.
Print subscription numbers driving ad rates? Isnt that a major reason so many mags will give you subs at 99c/year, esp if you fit a key demo or have a desirable zip code.glennhoffmania said:
Either way I'm not paying to read a Newsday blog. Another question is, would they generate more ad revenue via more clicks if they weren't charging people to use their web site?
I found that link via Google and don't have a subscription, so this morning it was visible.
There was not much else past what I quoted other than listing his diminished ISO and contact rates, his swinging K-rate (18+ percent), and the other players in the top 5 who have seen more fastballs than any other AL'ers (that list included Aoki and Pedroia).
This NoMaas post riffed on Jeter's fastball diet so far in 2014 as well.
There was not much else past what I quoted other than listing his diminished ISO and contact rates, his swinging K-rate (18+ percent), and the other players in the top 5 who have seen more fastballs than any other AL'ers (that list included Aoki and Pedroia).
This NoMaas post riffed on Jeter's fastball diet so far in 2014 as well.
Thanks for the link.
Back to Jeter's quest, he's currently at 3,345. He's on pace to play in 134 games and he's averaging exactly one hit per game. At this pace he'll finish with 3,450.
To reach 3,500:
-NY has 126 games left.
-Jeter averages 4.45 PAs per game played.
-His BB rate is 7.8%.
-Therefore he'd have another 517 ABs.
-To reach 3,500 he needs 155 more hits, or a BA of almost exactly .300 (.2998) while playing in every remaining game.
-If he only plays in 82.7% of NY's games (his current pace), he'd have to hit .362 the rest of the way.
Back to Jeter's quest, he's currently at 3,345. He's on pace to play in 134 games and he's averaging exactly one hit per game. At this pace he'll finish with 3,450.
To reach 3,500:
-NY has 126 games left.
-Jeter averages 4.45 PAs per game played.
-His BB rate is 7.8%.
-Therefore he'd have another 517 ABs.
-To reach 3,500 he needs 155 more hits, or a BA of almost exactly .300 (.2998) while playing in every remaining game.
-If he only plays in 82.7% of NY's games (his current pace), he'd have to hit .362 the rest of the way.
The thread title doesn't say anything about confining Jeter's hit total to regular season. The guy has exactly 200 hits in the postseason. Those hits didn't happen in a vacuum. You lose, Glenn.
The thread title isn't referencing my bet. The bet was that he'd reach 3,500 career hits. Playoff hits don't count toward career totals. I'm making reservations at Del Frisco's.
3500 is obviously an incredible number, one that only 5 people in history have gotten to before (Rose, Cobb, Aaron, Musial, Speaker). A similarly important one (for a shortstop) is 3421, which would put him ahead of Honus Wagner. Again, I've never really been a Jeter fanboy, but I hope he at least gets the latter one.
HriniakPosterChild said:
If you want to do it that way, he's well ahead of Honus Wagner already. I can't find full splits by year, but Honus Wagner didn't play SS until 1901. He had 654 of his 3420 hits before then, so at most 2766 could've come in games he was playing as a SS (and in reality it'd be many fewer, as he had another 400 or so games as a non-SS over his career).
SumnerH said:
B-Ref link to games by position and year.
That said, wasn't Wagner basically swinging at rocks somebody dug out of a quarry earlier that day?
That's where I got my numbers from, but it doesn't give hits by position.Reverend said:
EDIT: So in a year like 1901, we know he had 61 games at SS and 79 at other positions, and we know he had 194 hits. But we can't exactly apportion those as SS hits or non-SS hits. We can safely say that all the pre-1901 hits are non-SS, though.
He hasn't hit the ball in the air in more than a week:
http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=826&position=SS&type=4&gds=&gde=&season=2014
http://www.fangraphs.com/statsd.aspx?playerid=826&position=SS&type=4&gds=&gde=&season=2014
It's amazing how big a deal the media is making over the double switch last night. He might be the worst hitter in the lineup yet when Girardi takes him out in the 8th inning to try to win a game it's national news. When I read a game recap last night it was the second sentence. Not Whitley, deGrom, Betances or Robertson. Jeter getting replaced was the top story line.
Yup. You have a 1-0 lead in the late innings and you have a 40 year old shortstop with no range whatsoever and a backup who's an excellent defender.tims4wins said:
Giardi would have been managing by sentiment and not to win if he hadn't made that switch.
That is a step in the right direction though - 10 years ago when they acquired A-Rod, he obviously should have been their SS (at least for a few years).
Cody Derespina (Newsday statwonk) has been tweeting the "how bad is it" numbers in bunches during the recent NYY/Mets series.
His .308 slugging % is 164th out of the 179 players with enough AB's to qualify for the batting title.
His .308 slugging % is 164th out of the 179 players with enough AB's to qualify for the batting title.
Babe Ruth will still have the Yankee record for runs scored by a few hundred, but Jeter is very close to passing Gehrig for second (1888) for NY and 11th overall. He scored #1886 today.
After that, A-Rod is in 10th at 1919, I guess there is a non-zero chance he never adds to that again. Musial is in 9th at 1949, theoretically still in reach. Realistically, it looks like 11th will be where he ends up, right ahead of Gehrig/Speaker/Ott.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/R_career.shtml
After that, A-Rod is in 10th at 1919, I guess there is a non-zero chance he never adds to that again. Musial is in 9th at 1949, theoretically still in reach. Realistically, it looks like 11th will be where he ends up, right ahead of Gehrig/Speaker/Ott.
http://www.baseball-reference.com/leaders/R_career.shtml
Lamest farewell season by a Hall of Famer? There are a lot of bad ones because too many great players do not know when to quit. Jeter is heading to Willie Mays territory, mostly because he still plays a key defensive position and hurts his team at least twice per game. His offense is soft, too. Can't see this getting anything but worse as the games and wear/tear accumulate.
terrynever said:
Did something happen last night that prompted your comment? I didn't see the game.
HriniakPosterChild said:
Yeah this is a joke. Jeter's 12th in the AL by WAR so far this season and 10th by OPS.
What are the qualifications for the all-star team? I thought being someone the fans want to see in the game was pretty high on the list, and that being in the known last season of a 20+ year HOF career was a pretty good resume line for this job. See, eg, Yaz, Cal Ripken.glennhoffmania said:
Yeah, but Ripken hit a HR and was All Star Game MVP as a 40 year old in his last appearance - that's a hard act to follow....
I'd love to know if non-Yankee fans give a shit about seeing Jeter start another ASG.WayBackVazquez said:
glennhoffmania said:
Of course they do, dude got a standing O in St. Louis the other night for just walking to the plate, and who do you think is casting all those votes? AL East fans (including many Yankee fans) are the only ones seemingly sick of him.
That's bullshit, Jon. I haven't met one person, fan of any team other than NY, who isn't sick of him. People will show respect like they did in St. Louis and in every other city he visits this season, as they should. But I really don't think people outside of NY are dying to see Jeter start at SS for the AL. The only people who are defending him and are enjoying his farewell tour are Yankee fans.
My point was, the millions of NYers are voting him for because too many of them have an unnatural obsession with him, while people like Ramirez who aren't household names are going to get overlooked while most other people make homer picks.
If there were millions of NY voters filling ballots out for Jeter, Yankees would win the vote in just about every position on the diamond. Maybe that is happening, but I doubt it.
I really don't understand what we're debating. I don't know millions of Yankee fans but I know a lot. All of them either love, really like, or deeply respect Jeter and want to honor him during his farewell tour. These same people may not necessarily vote for Brian Roberts as the starting 2B, but they sure as hell will vote for Jeter over Ramirez. I'm not even saying I blame them. People can vote for whoever they want. My only point to Jon was that there isn't some nationwide longing to see Jeter start the ASG, but the vast majority of NYers would want to see it for one reason or another.
SumnerH said:
But Jeter hasn't been qualified to play at that position for years!
(Rim shot. Veal. Waitresses. Here All Week, Folks.)
This shit has been going on for years. Jeter isn't the first fading star who kept getting voted in. Plus, it's not like the AL is loaded with dynamic shortstops anymore. Alexi Ramirez's mother actually voted for Jeter. She's his age.
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