#DFG: Canceling the Noise

[ivanvamp]

It would be weird if they DID text all the time...

"Hey guys, don't forget to deflate the balls this week. I know we've been doing it for 8 years but just a reminder."

"Guys, it's tom. Giselle is inviting her friends over the house this week...talking hotty central. Swing by - left a set of keys in the mailbox"

 
Nobody is saying they would text ALL THE TIME.  But zero communication for six months?  I find that hard to believe unless they had this down to a science by then. Which is possible.

 

[Average Reds]

It's also fair to infer that (a) there was no reason to talk much in advance because the equipment guys knew what Tom wanted and (b) that the volume of conversations after the story broke makes it look like Tom was trying to cover his tracks.
 
I am pro-Patriots and think Peter King is a severe douche bag, but I can't kill him for that observation.  Yes, there are other ways to look at this and what you wrote above is far, but King's comment here is fair, as well.

Do you really not understand the difference between Brady's ongoing in-person discussions with J about how he wanted the balls (which info was then conveyed to M by J) and his sudden interest in talking directly to M, who'd actually been doing the deflating, via phone and text when the allegations surfaced?

The excuse-making on here for Brady is mind-blowing.

 
 
I have not made any real comments since the report came out, but I feel compelled to respond to these posts.
 
The fact that investigators could find no evidence of Brady communicating with Jastremski (by text or in person, if I read that correctly) is NOT evidence that Brady had any knowledge of the events in question.  As a matter of logic, it's the very opposite.
 
The fact that he would suddenly begin communicating after the allegations surface does not "look bad" unless you have already arrived at a conclusion about Brady's involvement.  In and of itself, for Brady to reach out after the allegations is a logical response no matter the underlying truth. 

 

[ngruz25]

Brady didn't get suddenly interested in Jastremski, as has been alleged in this thread. Jastremski reached out to Brady the morning the story broke (which was, as you will recall, a nutty time).

I do think the talk of a needle and receiving cash for it, or else the ball is a "rugby", is a very bad look. For McNally/Jastremski.

 

[( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)]

 
If you start with the premise that the Patriots are cheaters, then yeah, this stuff is easily read in a nefarious way.  But if you start with the premise that there are all kinds of natural explanations for this, then everything Wells brought up - including this point - are pretty easily explainable.

 
Exactly.  Almost everything in this report requires you to add context or make a mental leap to arrive at a conclusion.  I do not believe that this is an accident.  
 
I think the NFL is pleased with these shades of gray, they are backed into a corner because of the size and scope of the story.  They have two choices now:
1. Give the mob what they want - Brady and the Patriots on a stake
2. Explain science and math to a country that on average reads at the 7th grade level and expect that same general public to understand nuance and not make emotional decisions.
 
I've maintained through this whole thing that it's been about PR, image and driving news stories.  This report doesn't get at truth and I think that's what the NFL wants.  This has always been about driving news stories, PR and image for the league.  Common sense left the building a long time ago

 

[twibnotes]

 
Nobody is saying they would text ALL THE TIME.  But zero communication for six months?  I find that hard to believe unless they had this down to a science by then. Which is possible.

It's not that complicated: I want the balls at 12.5. Get it done


Not much to text about thereafter. It's not Brady's job to devise a scheme to make it happen.

 

[RedOctober3829]

The premise that Brady has no contact with JJ is laughable. Equipment guys see the players all day every day. The memorabilia angle is laughable too. As an intern I got signed footballs, shoes, money, and apparel from players. It's standard.

 

[twibnotes]

The premise that Brady has no contact with JJ is laughable. Equipment guys see the players all day every day. The memorabilia angle is laughable too. As an intern I got signed footballs, shoes, money, and apparel from players. It's standard.

So you are saying you helped athletes cheat?

Do tell.

 

[dcmissle]

I agree with Theo that this looks bad.

Beyond that, once we get to a place where there is an appeal on discipline (if there is), people need to understand one thing: if there is a set of facts that supports two inferences, one innocent the other not, the person hearing the appeal will draw the inference that supports culpability. That's just the way these things work. You do not get to re-try the whole matter; it's called an appeal for a reason.

However, insofar as TB is concerned, I am not sure that what is laid out in that report gets Goodell to where he probably is going, a suspension. Wells stopped short of accusing TB of ordering what the two meatheads did. He also stopped short of accusing TB of a cover-up. And while Wells said that TB did not aid the investigation in refusing to turn over his phone, a player (unlike the team) is not obligated to do that.

It's going to be very interesting if there is a suspension. I think there will be, and I do not believe Goodell is much concerned about it being overturned by an arbitrator.

 

[Myt1]

It's also fair to infer that (a) there was no reason to talk much in advance because the equipment guys knew what Tom wanted and (b) that the volume of conversations after the story broke makes it look like Tom was trying to cover his tracks.
 
I am pro-Patriots and think Peter King is a severe douche bag, but I can't kill him for that observation.  Yes, there are other ways to look at this and what you wrote above is far, but King's comment here is fair, as well.

Sure. But this gets to my point above. Wells isn't a court reviewing an appeal for sufficiency of the evidence. He doesn't have to view the evidence in a light most favorable to and draw all inferences (including those about credibility) in favor of the "prosecution" if you will.

It's very "inference piled upon inference." And while we can and often do convict on circumstantial evidence, there are other protections in place.

I think a reasonable juror could draw the conclusions Wells did. I think a reasonable one could draw different ones.

 

[McBride11]

Because it was a gigantic news story, and anyone's natural reaction would be to go talk with the guy who handles the balls, particularly when it was Brady who was the subject of the nation's ire. Everybody in that situation would have been like "Dude, what's going on here?" Or they could have been like "Dude, keep your mouth shut." Either makes complete sense.

 
Ya it's probably the 'uh hey what's going on here, is there something I need to know."
 
Or I guess these Tom and his super sneaky buddy Jas have been secretly for months and years deflating footballs and then when something comes up break all protocol and talk and text about the super secret ball deflating.

 

[ivanvamp]

 
Exactly.  Almost everything in this report requires you to add context or make a mental leap to arrive at a conclusion.  I do not believe that this is an accident.  
 
I think the NFL is pleased with these shades of gray, they are backed into a corner because of the size and scope of the story.  They have two choices now:
1. Give the mob what they want - Brady and the Patriots on a stake
2. Explain science and math to a country that on average reads at the 7th grade level and expect that same general public to understand nuance and not make emotional decisions.
 
I've maintained through this whole thing that it's been about PR, image and driving news stories.  This report doesn't get at truth and I think that's what the NFL wants.  This has always been about driving news stories, PR and image for the league.  Common sense left the building a long time ago

 
There's so much in this that could make the NFL look really, REALLY bad that was ignored or glossed over in this report.  Clearly, Wells isn't some objective reporter of facts.  He was hired by the NFL (Goodell), and his number one responsibility is to his client.  That much is so evident in all this.

 

[Bongorific]

 
This part is what should absolutely be getting more play here.  Interesting article here (http://www.breitbart.com/sports/2015/05/06/probably-doesnt-cut-it-wells-report-damns-investigators-more-than-patriots/).  The relevant portion:
 
"Wells relies on evidence suggesting the opposite of what he believes probablyhappened as a way to prove his case. Biased investigators embrace this methodology because it enables them to prove anything. Jim McNally suggesting to blow up the ball to look like a rugby ball, a watermelon, and a balloon might have proved to be a smoking gun if Wells charged the equipment guys of overinflating balls. Its surely relevant in indicating Bradys frustration with overinflated balls. But when McNally and Jastremski point to referees pressurizing balls to 16 psi2.5 psi over the limitthe evidence just as easily points to Brady looking for a ball deflated to regulation than to one deflated below it. It may be the case that Brady sought an edge on the rules. But this evidence presented mostly undermines rather than buttresses that thesis.
 
Buried deep past the executive summary, Wells concedes that the air pressure of all of the game balls tested at halftime decreased from the levels measured prior to the game. In other words, Wells affirmed Bill Belichicks point, ridiculed by Bill Nye the Science Guy and others, that the weather naturally deflates balls.
All of the ballsPatriots balls and Colts ballslost pressure by halftime. Significantly, the 11 Patriot balls showed greater decreases than the four Colt balls tested. More significantly, judging by what the scientists employed by Wells told him, eight of the 11 balls tested at halftime fell within the expected range of pressure drop based on the measurements of at least one of the two NFL officials who gauged the pigskins. This, more than anything else, invalidates the conclusions of the Wells Report. Though Ted Wells theorizes a conspiracy to depressurize balls, measurements by NFL referees on themajority of the Patriots balls read precisely where the scientific firm employed by the investigators said a ball inflated to 12.5 psithe NFL minimumwould fall to (between 11.52 and 11.32) as a result of game-time conditions.
Since the psi measurements of the two referees varied somewhat, the oppositethat a majority of the balls failed to meet the expected levelis also true. Remarkably, the report chooses to interpret the data exclusively in a manner that suggests malfeasance. Most of the individual Patriots measurements recorded at halftime, however, were lower than the range predicted by the Ideal Gas Law, the report reads. But the fact that by at least one or the other referees measurement, the air pressure of eight of eleven balls fell to expected levels undermines the verdict of probable guilt."
 
All of the talk of deflating the footballs - my goodness, how is that 16 psi piece not HUGELY important?  Brady likes the footballs on the softer end of the scale.  Ok, that's his preference, just like Aaron Rodgers likes them on the upper end of the scale.  And when the refs check the balls at the beginning of a particular game and they come to 16 psi, a few things follow from that:
 
(1) The refs *DO NOT CARE ABOUT THE PSI IN THE FOOTBALLS*.  How could they be doing their job if psi is SOOOO critical to the game, and yet they admit footballs into the game that are 3.5 psi outside the range?  Either they (a) didn't check all the footballs, or (b) they did check but didn't give a rat's ass about what the psi were.  In either case, they didn't care AT ALL what the psi were.  The psi only became a big factor when the Colts decided to make this an issue.  
 
(2) The process itself is hardly something CSI worthy.  The procedures are very loose.  When Walt Anderson says he was distraught at the "missing" footballs taken by McNally, I guarantee that the only reason he was distraught was because in THIS PARTICULAR GAME they were keeping a specific eye on that.  I guarantee you he never thought twice about the chain of custody before in all his years as an NFL referee.  Some mid-season game between two last-place teams, there is zero chance he worried about what happened to the footballs once he approved them.  Moreover, I bet his method of approval was basically this:  test one or two balls in a batch, if they check out, great, if not, pump them up (or deflate them a little) then squeeze-test the rest.  Like NFL quarterbacks, he wouldn't be able to tell the difference between 0.5 psi, so of COURSE it's possible that in the course of a normal NFL game the refs submit themselves game balls outside the allowable psi range.  Why?  BECAUSE NOBODY FRIGGING CARES, that's why.
 
(3) It is *entirely plausible* that the entire premise of deflating footballs for Brady stems from the 16 psi number.  They know Brady likes his footballs softer.  Maybe nobody can tell the difference of 0.5 psi, but Brady sure could tell the difference of 3.5 psi!  And so they took those balls and deflated them after getting them back, noticing, yikes, they're really hard, and deflating them themselves.  So for the AFCCG, here's an ENTIRELY PLAUSIBLE sequence of events.  They submit the footballs at 12.5 psi or a little under.  Anderson pumps them up just to make sure they're ok, and some of them he pumps up higher than 12.5 - maybe up to 13.5.  Who knows.  McNally gets the balls and a quick feel knows that the ones at 13.5 are a little too hard for what Brady likes, so he quickly lets air out of some of them (maybe not all of them, maybe just some of them).  Doing this quickly, he doesn't use a gaugejust a feel test.  Which is why the balls aren't uniformly pressurized when measured at halftime.
 
So yeah, should he have done that?  No, not according to the rules.  But it stems from a previous situation where a referee handed him footballs that were at *16 psi*, well above the limit, and so his procedure from that point on has been to make adjustments himself, knowing what Brady likes.
 
So could Brady have been "generally aware" that McNally did such things?  Sure.  Like if McNally told him after that 16 psi game, you wouldn't believe what they handed me, and here's what I did, and Brady said, yeah great, thanks, I appreciate thatyou know how I like 'em.  
 
None of that - NONE OF THAT - implicates Brady or McNally as some sort of shady character.  It is COMPLETELY plausible.  It fits the facts (as far as I know them), and it makes the NFL look stupid for (1) how they handle the footballs, and (2) making a mountain out of a molehill.  Not to mention the stupid "sting operation" nature of this entire situation.  

This was a good post.

My biggest take away from the report is that I am less and less impressed by Big Law every time I've had a case with them or read their work.

 

[Shelterdog]

Because it was a gigantic news story, and anyone's natural reaction would be to go talk with the guy who handles the balls, particularly when it was Brady who was the subject of the nation's ire. Everybody in that situation would have been like "Dude, what's going on here?" Or they could have been like "Dude, keep your mouth shut." Either makes complete sense.

 
Precisely.  
 
Couple of other interesting things.
 
* I don't see the name of any of the exponent experts that worked on this.
* I would love to know when they decided to use the whole more likely than not standard.  It's not in the Martin or Ray Rice reports.  I'll bet it was fairly late in the investigation when PW was like "look, we don't fucking know what happened for sure" so rather than right a report saying maybe, maybe not, can draw conclusions, no hard evidence they went with a soft preponderance standard.
* The fact that it took months for exponent to get its report together is sketchy. PW and Exponent were likely going back and forth on the assumptions for weeks until Exponent.
* The timing of the exponent "you can deflate 13 balls in a minute" letter is interesting--it's listed as May 6. That's fairly late in the game to buttress the claim that McNally totally did it in the bathroom.  [EDIT: I'm an idiot, they obviously had exponent issue the final letter right before the report was issued even if it had been completed months before.]
*The term "deflator" comes up 16 times in the report.  They are beating that and the lack of cooperation into the ground.  

 

[RedOctober3829]

So you are saying you helped athletes cheat?

Do tell.

No I didn't help anybody cheat. I'm saying that players give and sign items all the time.

 

[dcmissle]

Please don't wet your pants if this turns out to be wrong -- and who the hell knows ?-- but a friend with NFL connections is hearing 3 games.  And that the Pats will not take that without a fight.
 
I have no stake in this being right and indeed hope that it is flat wrong.  So take it FWIW or don't take it or take a nap.

Thanks again. And it's not the Pats, really ... it's TB's and the union's fight, and that's a good thing.

And yes, they are absolutely using Schefter to float this trial balloon.

 

[TheoShmeo]

 
 
I have not made any real comments since the report came out, but I feel compelled to respond to these posts.
 
The fact that investigators could find no evidence of Brady communicating with Jastremski (by text or in person, if I read that correctly) is NOT evidence that Brady had any knowledge of the events in question.  As a matter of logic, it's the very opposite.
 
The fact that he would suddenly begin communicating after the allegations surface does not "look bad" unless you have already arrived at a conclusion about Brady's involvement.  In and of itself, for Brady to reach out after the allegations is a logical response no matter the underlying truth. 

That simply isn't true.  I came into this wanting to believe Tom, believing Tom, and being as pro-Pats as one could be.  I had not arrived at a conclusion of any sort about Tom's involvement.
 
But to me, the flurry looks what it looks like. 
 
As a related point, I received this very cogent e-mail from a friend that I thought I would share:

 
Good point on Tom wanting them to manipulate the balls but not saying go below the level. Look were the balls tampered with... yes. A few years ago a lot of QBS including Brady went to the league and asked for the ability to be able to manipulate the balls to their liking before games as they weren't happy with their feel. The league agreed (to create more offense) and is why we have the policy now. It enables the QBS to tamper with the balls. Otherwise the refs would control the game balls the whole time and both teams would use the same NFL issued and regulated game balls. The NFLs dirty little secret. Turn the other way. They were forced to act as the whiny little Colts went to the media with this and forced the NFL to publicly  investigate. My point is this was rolling through a stop sign.... technically again the rules and we got a ticket. but because it was the Pats and Brady it becomes the story. Brady's big mistake was the press conference where he totally denied everything. He should not have said anything or come out and told the dirty secret like Aaron Rodgers said (he likes his over inflated).... yes I did ask to have the balls manipulated like all QBS do within the rules and parameters and never asked the levels to get below the legal limit. Show me evidence that I asked it to go below legal limits. The non cooperation and cover up is going to hurt Brady as much as the "probable" crime.
 

 

[PaulinMyrBch]

The premise that Brady has no contact with JJ is laughable. Equipment guys see the players all day every day. The memorabilia angle is laughable too. As an intern I got signed footballs, shoes, money, and apparel from players. It's standard.

Am I right in assuming he knows JJ very well, since he's a daily employee, but that McNally is someone that only works gameday, so 10 days a year counting the preseason? So Tom likely would not see him very often if at all.

 

[twibnotes]

No I didn't help anybody cheat. I'm saying that players give and sign items all the time.

I was joking...one of the silliest things about the report is the implication that bc Brady signed balls, it had to be a tit for tat.

If Brady didn't sign balls, he'd be considered a jerk since everyone else does it.

 

[MuppetAsteriskTalk]

 
There's so much in this that could make the NFL look really, REALLY bad that was ignored or glossed over in this report.  Clearly, Wells isn't some objective reporter of facts.  He was hired by the NFL (Goodell), and his number one responsibility is to his client.  That much is so evident in all this.

 
Well there is a reason why so many people think all/most lawyers are "more likely than not" generally opportunistic scumbags. 

 

[dcmissle]

People do not acquire nicknames for things they do not do. The "deflator" makes no sense unless one assumes there was some screwing around with balls.

If you were defending this case to a jury, you would never escape that finding. And you would insult the jury's intelligence if you tried, and might end up worse off. That's why, as Shelter notes, the report hits that term again and again.

 

[amarshal2]

 
No, you're not missing something.  And it's a fundamental point.  Here are the psi readings of the footballs when measured at halftime:
 
Pats (Blakeman - Prioleau - Average)
11.50 - 11.80 - 11.65
10.85 - 11.20 - 11.03
11.15 - 11.50 - 11.33
10.70 - 11.00 - 10.85
11.10 - 11.45 - 11.28
11.60 - 11.95 - 11.78
11.85 - 12.30 - 12.08
11.10 - 11.55 - 11.33
10.50 - 10.90 - 10.70
10.90 - 11.35 - 11.13
11.11 - 11.49 - 11.30 (average)
 
Colts (Blakeman - Prioleau - Average)
12.70 - 12.35 - 12.53
12.75 - 12.30 - 12.53
12.50 - 12.95 - 12.73
12.55 - 12.15 - 12.35
12.63 - 12.44 - 12.54 (average)
 
Let's ignore the inconsistency between the measurements - namely, that Blakeman's measurements of the Patriots' balls were routinely higher than Prioleau's, but the situation was just reversed when measuring the Colts' footballs.  That doesn't  make any statistical or scientific sense if each man used his own instrument to measure both sets of footballs.
 
Regardless, the Patriots' footballs measured at halftime an average of 1.24 below the average Colt football.  If we start with the assumption that the Patriots' footballs were measured at or around 12.50 when Anderson cleared them before the game, and the Colts' footballs were measured at or around 13.50, both at the legal ends of the spectrum, then it's pretty obvious that we should have *roughly* a 1.00 difference between the Patriots' footballs and the Colts' footballs when they were measured at halftime, after having spent all that time in cold weather.
 
So what we are talking about here is the possibility of just a 0.24 psi discrepancy between what we'd expect and what was measured at halftime.  0.24 psi.  And could that have been accounted for in this way:  when they got the footballs at halftime, they immediately measured the Patriots' footballs, and sure enough, that's what they got.  But they did the four Colts' footballs (why only four?) after the Patriots' measurements were made.  And how long of a time period was there in-between?  WHO KNOWS!  Let's say they carefully measured the Patriots' footballs, both men.  Then they took a few minutes to compare notes.  And asked some questions of what's going on here.  And then they measured the Colts' footballs.  Could those possible 5-10 minutes in between have been enough to account for the 0.24 psi discrepancy?
 
If you start with the premise that the Patriots are cheaters, then yeah, this stuff is easily read in a nefarious way.  But if you start with the premise that there are all kinds of natural explanations for this, then everything Wells brought up - including this point - are pretty easily explainable.

For what reason should we assume the Colts balls were at 13.5 instead of 13.1? That's the crux of the issue.

 

[ivanvamp]

For what reason should we assume the Colts balls were at 13.5 instead of 13.1? That's the crux of the issue.

 
I'm not saying we should.  The point is that looking at the halftime measurements doesn't really help us *unless we know what the actual measurements were before the game*.  Everyone keeps saying, why did the Pats' footballs deflate but the Colts' didn't!?  Hmmmmmmmmmm?????
 
Which MAY be a good point and it MAY point to manipulation.  Or it MAY NOT.  It almost certainly is explainable naturally IF the Colts' footballs started off at the high end of the legal range while the Patriots' started off at the low end of the legal range.
 
The point - which would be hammered home time and time again in a real courtroom or under cross-examination - is that WE DO NOT KNOW THE STARTING POINT because they were never recorded.  So how can we REALLY know what the halftime measurements mean, other than that yes, most of the footballs - INCLUDING THE COLTS' FOOTBALLS - were measured below 12.5.  I mean, looking at Blakeman's measurements, the Colts were playing the first half of the AFCCG with improperly inflated footballs too.  If you just use the halftime measurements with no regard to context.

 

[Shelterdog]

People do not acquire nicknames for things they do not do. The "deflator" makes no sense unless one assumes there was some screwing around with balls.

If you were defending this case to a jury, you would never escape that finding. And you would insult the jury's intelligence if you tried, and might end up worse off. That's why, as Shelter notes, the report hits that term again and again.

 
Accept that Wells isn't supposed to be an advocate, he's purporting to be a neutral factfinder.

 

[( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)]

People do not acquire nicknames for things they do not do. The "deflator" makes no sense unless one assumes there was some screwing around with balls.

If you were defending this case to a jury, you would never escape that finding. And you would insult the jury's intelligence if you tried, and might end up worse off. That's why, as Shelter notes, the report hits that term again and again.

 
Again this is assigning context to something without the backstory.  
 
He could just as easily be calling himself the Deflator because Brady got on his ass about the balls being handed to him pre-game being too firm.  Brady could have made a stink about not wanting to even touch a ball until it's down to 12.5. 
 
Easily explainable and perfectly innocent context could just as easily be added to that nickname and text.  Most people are having an emotional response and are choosing to add different context.

 

[dcmissle]

 
Accept that Wells isn't supposed to be an advocate, he's purporting to be a neutral factfinder.

I understand that. And kudos to you for saying from the beginning that he was going to shade things.

 

[CantKeepmedown]

Some guy from the Miami Herald just called D&C (did not appear to be a planned interview, but just a caller).  He said he has connections into the NFL disciplinary committee, and was pretty close to the Wells investigation of the Dolphins.  He said his connection said that the ceiling for a penalty on Brady is a one year suspension.  His source would not talk about the low end.  He said the committee is taking into account everything, not just the report.  How this would affect the league, TV deals, and all that.  He seemed reasonable, and Gerry, Kirk, and Glen seemed to believe him.  

 

[McBride11]

People do not acquire nicknames for things they do not do. The "deflator" makes no sense unless one assumes there was some screwing around with balls.

If you were defending this case to a jury, you would never escape that finding. And you would insult the jury's intelligence if you tried, and might end up worse off. That's why, as Shelter notes, the report hits that term again and again.

 
Because guys with nicknames of "Tiny" are generally some short guy not the big towering guy right?
 
Or maybe he deflated from the 16 that pissed Brady off to the normal 12.5-13. 

 

[BroodsSexton]

My 9 year old son had the best take on this when he opened the newspaper this morning.  I asked him what he thought.  He said "I think it's crazy that they wrote a 200 page paper on this.  I had no idea that they were doing that.  I really don't care.  It's over."

 

[amarshal2]

 
I'm not saying we should.  The point is that looking at the halftime measurements doesn't really help us *unless we know what the actual measurements were before the game*.  Everyone keeps saying, why did the Pats' footballs deflate but the Colts' didn't!?  Hmmmmmmmmmm?????
 
Which MAY be a good point and it MAY point to manipulation.  Or it MAY NOT.  It almost certainly is explainable naturally IF the Colts' footballs started off at the high end of the legal range while the Patriots' started off at the low end of the legal range.
 
The point - which would be hammered home time and time again in a real courtroom or under cross-examination - is that WE DO NOT KNOW THE STARTING POINT because they were never recorded.  So how can we REALLY know what the halftime measurements mean, other than that yes, most of the footballs - INCLUDING THE COLTS' FOOTBALLS - were measured below 12.5.  I mean, looking at Blakeman's measurements, the Colts were playing the first half of the AFCCG with improperly inflated footballs too.  If you just use the halftime measurements with no regard to context.

It's not a courtroom and Anderson his minimal motivation to lie.

 

[Valek123]

My biggest take away from the report is that I am less and less impressed by Big Law every time I've had a case with them or read their work.

 
This is my biggest take away, we know little to nothing more except for a wave of texts than we knew 4 months ago.  It's unfortunate but I think the NFL's only solution at this point is to come down heavy because "integrity of the game" and 1 psi matters more than any other issue the NFL is dealing with right now.  Ole Rog has backed himself into a corner with no escape short of hammering Brady, going to arbitration, fighting the players union and fining the pats for their employees "likely and probable" role in this fiasco.
 
I still can't believe this became this large an issue in the same season that two teams clearly heated footballs on the sidelines and received a haha, knock it off boys warning.  The bottom line as always in today's society, stories only matter if they are picked up by mainstream media and have people important enough to transcend the sports involved, otherwise it doesn't involve the "integrity of the game" and is swept under the rug.
 
I hope football survives Rogers incompetence, can you imagine this sport with a strong commissioner that actively involves the players union in ways to find solutions and doesn't make unilateral decisions based on how many twitter hits the story has and which groups are offended?
 
In the end there will be a ring ceremony, Pats fans will defend the entire event and others will carry the Br*dy storylines forever and that sucks but we've carried that BS since 2007 so who cares now?  Nothing has really changed, and if anything the "you hate us cause you ain't us" vendors just got even more popular(which to me is one of the other most annoying parts of this storyline).

 

[Shelterdog]

I understand that. And kudos to you for saying from the beginning that he was going to shade things.

 
Thanks but it's not a big secret-the guys at the top of the white collar totem poll don't get their business by going off the rails and printing independent reports that aren't aligned with the playing clients' interests.

 

[DJnVa]

"More probable than not" .... "Brady was at least generally aware of the inappropriate activities".

 
 

 

[dcmissle]

Some guy from the Miami Herald just called D&C (did not appear to be a planned interview, but just a caller).  He said he has connections into the NFL disciplinary committee, and was pretty close to the Wells investigation of the Dolphins.  He said his connection said that the ceiling for a penalty on Brady is a one year suspension.  His source would not talk about the low end.  He said the committee is taking into account everything, not just the report.  How this would affect the league, TV deals, and all that.  He seemed reasonable, and Gerry, Kirk, and Glen seemed to believe him.  

Everyone's looking for his 15 minutes. Here's hoping that the Deflator and his buddy do not.

 

[Reardon's Beard]

I absolutely think they try to suspend Brady but are going to have a challenge of getting him more than a single game. I could see them going for two, but considering the complete lack of evidence, I'm not sure even one goes through. My guess is they try for two, settle on one, and Tom has to sit out the opener which is punishment enough after winning the big one.
 
There will clearly be a fine regardless.
 
I'm also not convinced this will be as bad as it seems. He gets an extra game of rest and gets motivated to bury the haters, and he'll have the whole offseason to stay mad about it; starting now. If that's as bad as it gets we shall overcome.
 
And we need Patriots NWO shirts made for next year. This is going to be wild and I want to embrace being the heels. I mean is there any doubt that Brady, Edelman, and Gronk can be the NFL's Hogan, Hall, and Nash for 2015-2016?

 

[ivanvamp]

Some guy from the Miami Herald just called D&C (did not appear to be a planned interview, but just a caller).  He said he has connections into the NFL disciplinary committee, and was pretty close to the Wells investigation of the Dolphins.  He said his connection said that the ceiling for a penalty on Brady is a one year suspension.  His source would not talk about the low end.  He said the committee is taking into account everything, not just the report.  How this would affect the league, TV deals, and all that.  He seemed reasonable, and Gerry, Kirk, and Glen seemed to believe him.  

There is no chance in hell Brady gets anything anywhere near that one year suspension. None. Frankly, from the evidence, he should get no suspension. But this being Goodell, he'll
Probably get one and fight it on appeal. Let's see how the NFLPA supports him, as they should. And how Kraft supports him and fights for him.

 

[Devizier]

- The sampling of e-mails I have received thus far tells me that I will simply not discuss -- other than in a business setting when I essentially have no choice -- DeflateGate with non-Pats fans.  It is clear to me that it will be more difficult to ferret out the Opportunists from people who want to discuss the situation with any degree of objectivity, and it simply isn't worth it.

 
It's funny because I know a lot of anti-Patriots fans -- I got plenty of ribbing back in '07 -- but after the initial "outrage" not a word from anybody. The Patriots did just win the championship after all.

 

[Silverdude2167]

Some guy from the Miami Herald just called D&C (did not appear to be a planned interview, but just a caller).  He said he has connections into the NFL disciplinary committee, and was pretty close to the Wells investigation of the Dolphins.  He said his connection said that the ceiling for a penalty on Brady is a one year suspension.  His source would not talk about the low end.  He said the committee is taking into account everything, not just the report.  How this would affect the league, TV deals, and all that.  He seemed reasonable, and Gerry, Kirk, and Glen seemed to believe him.  

Ha a year, right. This is nothing and the NFL knows its nothing. A year would be insane.

 

[ivanvamp]

It's not a courtroom and Anderson his minimal motivation to lie.

Who said Anderson is lying? I'm sure he told the truth that the balls were all within regulations even he took pre-game measurements. It's just that we don't know where on the scale the Colts' footballs were. And that fact matters a great deal in terms of understanding halftime measurements.

 

[Ed Hillel]

Some guy from the Miami Herald just called D&C (did not appear to be a planned interview, but just a caller).  He said he has connections into the NFL disciplinary committee, and was pretty close to the Wells investigation of the Dolphins.  He said his connection said that the ceiling for a penalty on Brady is a one year suspension.  His source would not talk about the low end.  He said the committee is taking into account everything, not just the report.  How this would affect the league, TV deals, and all that.  He seemed reasonable, and Gerry, Kirk, and Glen seemed to believe him.  

Is this the same guy who said Brady and Belichick won't make the HoF? Not exactly reasonable.

 

[dcmissle]

More good work by Florio:

http://profootballtalk.nbcsports.com/2015/05/07/nfl-initially-gave-patriots-bad-information-about-psi-readings/

 

[jsinger121]

I absolutely think they try to suspend Brady but are going to have a challenge of getting him more than a single game. I could see them going for two, but considering the complete lack of evidence, I'm not sure even one goes through. My guess is they try for two, settle on one, and Tom has to sit out the opener which is punishment enough after winning the big one.
 
There will clearly be a fine regardless.
 
I'm also not convinced this will be as bad as it seems. He gets an extra game of rest and gets motivated to bury the haters, and he'll have the whole offseason to stay mad about it; starting now. If that's as bad as it gets we shall overcome.
 
And we need Patriots NWO shirts made for next year. This is going to be wild and I want to embrace being the heels. I mean is there any doubt that Brady, Edelman, and Gronk can be the NFL's Hogan, Hall, and Nash for 2015-2016?

 
I don't think TB12 settles for a suspension. The NFLPA will drag this one out plus NBC isn't going to be too happy that the main attraction for their opener is suspended. NFL is all about ratings. Give him the game. NFLPA wins. All TB12 pays is a fine end of story.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Am I right in assuming he knows JJ very well, since he's a daily employee, but that McNally is someone that only works gameday, so 10 days a year counting the preseason? So Tom likely would not see him very often if at all.

Yes you are.

 

[Hoya81]

Ha a year, right. This is nothing and the NFL knows its nothing. A year would be insane.

A year is beyond insane. Ray Lewis plead guilty obstruction of justice in a MURDER investigation and got a 250k fine and was suspended no games.

 

[bankshot1]

The real punishment has already been served: reputational, the haters got a new toy to play with for a long time. I heard the bullshit last night at my local bar.
 
The other punishments that would hurt would be the loss of a high draft choice to weaken them in future seasons, and perhaps a multi-game suspension for Brady that levels the '15 playing field. A dollar fine is mostly meaningless. (ie. $100k for WQoody and his tampering-please!)
 
IMO given the miserable year RG had he comes down hard on the Pats.
 
Whether the PA can reduce a 2-4 game suspension remains to be seen.

 

[Gorton Fisherman]

I can't get past the thought that Brady would want anyone messing with the balls post-inspection. I can see him wanting the locker room attendants to be his advocates with the refs - "make sure they know I like the balls soft, don't let them do the 16 psi thing again, show them the rule, here's a copy" - but I can't imagine him being OK with anyone then tampering with the balls in an uncontrolled environment.

 
Agreed.  This is an important point that is getting lost in the noise.  Messing with balls pre-inspection: perfectly OK, other QBs apparently admit to doing it (see: Rodgers, Aaron), not a rules violation.  Messing with balls post-inspection: clearly not OK, definitely against the rules.
 
I've yet to see a single scintilla of evidence indicating was Brady was involved in the latter.  Or was even "generally aware" of this kind of thing allegedly happening.  If anyone has seen any such evidence, please enlighten me.

 

[jsinger121]

The real punishment has already been served: reputational, the haters got a new toy to play with for a long time. I heard the bullshit last night at my local bar.
 
The other punishments that would hurt would be the loss of a high draft choice to weaken them in future seasons, and perhaps a multi-game suspension for Brady that levels the '15 playing field. A dollar fine is mostly meaningless. (ie. $100k for WQoody and his tampering-please!)
 
IMO given the miserable year RG had he comes down hard on the Pats.
 
Whether the PA can reduce a 2-4 game suspension remains to be seen.

 
If the NFLPA can get Jonathan Vilma's 1 year suspension overturned to nothing then I am pretty confident they can get TB12 to nothing.

 

[Ed Hillel]

Gulp?

https://mobile.twitter.com/pp_rich_hill/status/596301675800965120

 

[LuckyBen]

 
Nobody is saying they would text ALL THE TIME.  But zero communication for six months?  I find that hard to believe unless they had this down to a science by then. Which is possible.

Did they look into Brady's daily schedule for his appointment with this guy? Does Brady completely stay assay from Gillette? Did Brady call BB or Kraft?

 

[DJnVa]

Or we could just watch the ESPN sports science thing that ESPN buried

 
I may be wrong here, but doesn't that just show that there's no negligible effect for deflating? That doesn't mean that someone didn't break the rules.
 
Speeding gets you no real benefit (arriving 7 seconds faster!!!) but you're still going to get in trouble if you get caught.
 

 

[dcmissle]

At what point, if any, does Vegas take everything Pats related off the board until we get at least an initial ruling from the NFL?