#DFG: Canceling the Noise

Is there any level of suspension that you would advise Tom to accept?


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Tito's Pullover

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Jettisoned said:
 
I don't know about other Pats fans but I'm basically just watching because of Brady and Belichick at this point.  After all this petty bullshit I'm probably done with the NFL after they both retire.
Same here, and I'm not even fully a Pats fan - half Patriots and half Packers.  I'm a fan of smart football, and so I'd watch BB coach a Pop Warner game. The problem for me is that I love football, but the top leagues (NFL and NCAA) are run by repulsive organizations. I wish there was an alternative - CFL? Arena? Anything but these clowns.
 
The best case scenario for me right now is that Brady and the Patriots get a fine.  If that happens, I'll keep watching until they both hang 'em up. If Brady is suspended, even if the suspension is successfully appealed, then I think I'm in soxhop's "consider not watching" boat.  If Brady is made to serve even one game of a suspension, then I'm definitely not watching anything other than super bowls, unless we get another 2007 undefeated fuck you blowout streak or BB starts doing crazy spiteful shit like fake punts on first and 10 from the Pats' 20.
 
It's not because I think I can somehow make the NFL "pay" for their idiocy. I know I'm nothing to them. I just don't need to waste 3 hours every Sunday knowing that there's a good chance the rug is eventually going to be pulled out from under the team I'm supporting.  Because if something this silly is worth a suspension of even a single play, never mind 6, 8, or 16 games, what's next? Maybe towards the end of next year it'll be revealed there's some obscure rule about drainage systems that the Gillette Stadium crew accidentally violates, and Brady can't prove he didn't know about it so he's banned for the playoffs.
 

86spike

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TheoShmeo said:
 
The Report contains nothing on Tom asking for balls to be below the limit, he has denied doing that and I have no reason to believe that he would back away from that.
 
So perhaps the better approach is to say the Report did not allege that Brady asked for deflation below 12.5 and reiterate that he did not in fact do so.
 
And if you're going that direction you (as advisor per the subject of this thread) need to know for sure that there is not skeleton in the closet, no matter how hidden, that might contradict those claims, right?  
 
I think we'll get some interesting insight into whether or not Team Brady is 100% sure he never asked for or was involved with ball tampering post-ref-inspection once the punishment is handed down.  The wording used for whatever reaction they have will be telling, IMO.
 

DJnVa

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86spike said:
 
 
No, I'm referring to this part of that strategy idea:
 
"yet Wells believes that one person took 12 footballs out of a duffel bag, deflated all 12 and put them back in the duffle bag all in 100 seconds in a bathroom stall"
 

But that was dependent on the other part not being finished in time.
 
The point is, if one guy can handle 12 balls in 2 minutes, 5 guys handle 24 in 10 minutes.
 

Return of the Dewey

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djbayko said:
I'll disagree slightly with the others. Yes, it's frustrating to have people constantly badger you about the Patriots, especially with misinformation. However, it's more than that to me. As a fan, it does matter to me that they are respected as the great team that they are. You don't have to love them (you're not supposed to) but you should recognize their accomplishments, just as I recognize the great Bulls, Cowboys and (gulp) Yankees, Lakers teams.
 
It just seems to me that you're letting the "haters" ruin your fun and enjoyment, which is exactly what the haters want to happen.  I know that nothing infuriated me more in the late '90s than the fact that all the hatred that I had against the NYY only made NYY fans laugh at me.
 

DJnVa

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Return of the Dewey said:
 
It just seems to me that you're letting the "haters" ruin your fun and enjoyment, which is exactly what the haters want to happen.
 
Yes. But now I can't talk sports with the guy in the office down the hall because all he says is "Cheaters! Liars!" and that sucks, because prior to this we were able to talk about football. Now that's gone and it sucks.
 
And next year, going to the sports bar and watching all the games? Yeah, okay. I don't want to spend hours dealing with the meatheads. Previously it was "Brady's a pretty boy!" stuff or generic "Pats suck!" but now? It's going to be nonstop shit. Fuck that. And that sucks too.
 

soxhop411

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Tito's Pullover said:
Same here, and I'm not even fully a Pats fan - half Patriots and half Packers.  I'm a fan of smart football, and so I'd watch BB coach a Pop Warner game. The problem for me is that I love football, but the top leagues (NFL and NCAA) are run by repulsive organizations. I wish there was an alternative - CFL? Arena? Anything but these clowns.
 
The best case scenario for me right now is that Brady and the Patriots get a fine.  If that happens, I'll keep watching until they both hang 'em up. If Brady is suspended, even if the suspension is successfully appealed, then I think I'm in soxhop's "consider not watching" boat.  If Brady is made to serve even one game of a suspension, then I'm definitely not watching anything other than super bowls, unless we get another 2007 undefeated fuck you blowout streak or BB starts doing crazy spiteful shit like fake punts on first and 10 from the Pats' 20.
 
It's not because I think I can somehow make the NFL "pay" for their idiocy. I know I'm nothing to them. I just don't need to waste 3 hours every Sunday knowing that there's a good chance the rug is eventually going to be pulled out from under the team I'm supporting.  Because if something this silly is worth a suspension of even a single play, never mind 6, 8, or 16 games, what's next? Maybe towards the end of next year it'll be revealed there's some obscure rule about drainage systems that the Gillette Stadium crew accidentally violates, and Brady can't prove he didn't know about it so he's banned for the playoffs.
yup
 

djbayko

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Return of the Dewey said:
 
It just seems to me that you're letting the "haters" ruin your fun and enjoyment, which is exactly what the haters want to happen.  I know that nothing infuriated me more in the late '90s than the fact that all the hatred that I had against the NYY only made NYY fans laugh at me.
This is all part of the package of sports. Yes, I get riled up when there is a controversy involving my team, and I'd bet you do too. Judging by the length of this thread, we're not alone. It's not hurting my enjoyment. I'll still be watching the games next year, rooting for Tom Brady...probably even harder than before. This will only serve to strengthen our group identity as Patriots and as fans.
 

Marciano490

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Prodigal Sox said:
Pontius Goodell should just publicly wash his hands at 345 park Avenue and ask the crowd to decide on the punishment.  I'm sure the NFL could get the major networks and the industry leader to get into a bidding war for the rights.  There is a long stretch in the calender bewteen now and the beginning of training camps.
 
Give us Hardy!  We want Hardy!
 

86spike

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DrewDawg said:
 
But that was dependent on the other part not being finished in time.
 
The point is, if one guy can handle 12 balls in 2 minutes, 5 guys handle 24 in 10 minutes.
 
McNally only had to get his needle into each ball and hiss out a few seconds of air and he was (allegedly) racing to do it.
 
The ref team inspecting the balls at halftime had to gauge each ball (twice, right?  Didn't they use 2 different gauges per the report?), mark down the reading, then inflate the balls back to the correct pressure.  I expect that were not racing to do this and instead were methodical in their pace.  That seems like it would take a lot more time to do that what McNally was supposedly up to in that bathroom.
 
I really don't think there's some kind of bombshell revelation in comparing these two things.  I don't think Team Brady would win over any skeptics with this one, so what even put it out there to invite scrutiny?
 

ALiveH

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you guys with 120+ IQs are dissecting the validity of the sound bite.  my overall point is it's a potentially convincing sounding sound bite that can play nationally.  Remember, if the median IQ is 100, then 50% of Americans have an IQ less than 100.  you need a sound bite takes 5 seconds or less to say and will convince someone with an IQ of 90.
 
Or, come up with a better sound bite.  That's what my advice to Yee & Brady would be.
 

Ralphwiggum

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djbayko said:
I'll disagree slightly with the others. Yes, it's frustrating to have people constantly badger you about the Patriots, especially with misinformation. However, it's more than that to me. As a fan, it does matter to me that they are respected as the great team that they are. You don't have to love them (you're not supposed to) but you should recognize their accomplishments, just as I recognize the great Bulls, Cowboys and (gulp) Yankees, Lakers teams.

This isn't intended as an insult to you, but as a Jets fan you don't have to really even consider this. You'd just be happy with a championship, and would be greatful if your team cheated to reach that goal. The Patriots have reached that goal several times, and they've done so with great players, coaches, and ownership.

There is a reason why the first Giants Super Bowl was so devastating to Pats fans. It wasn't just a championship. It was immortality. If we fans didn't care what others thought about our team at all, then it would have just been another trophy.
 
The first Giants Super Bowl was Spygate year so people were going to discredit that even if they won. Yes the entire season was played after the Pats were "caught" and stopped breaking the rule, but facts and logic have no place in a discussion about the Pats being cheaters.
 
I don't give a shit what other fans think.  I wanted them to win that year because I wanted them to be the only team to go 19-0, and because I wanted Brady, Belichick and a few others who were on that team to win their fourth ring together, not because I care what other fans think.  Other fans mostly hate the Pats and will find any way within their power to discredit or minimize their accomplishments.  I don't know anyone personally who thinks this whole thing reflects negatively on Tom Brady or the Pats, but if I did that would be a good signal to me that I'm probably wasting my time caring about their opinion on sports related matters anyway. 
 

Filet-O-Fisk

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I think the Wells report is incorrect regarding standard deviation, as discussed on p. 115. They say that the Patriots balls exhibited more variability because the SD was 0.41 and 0.40 based on the measurements at halftime, while the Colts balls had SDs of 0.16 and 0.14.   I think these numbers are wrong. I have SDs of 0.41 and 0.40 for the Pats balls (Prioleau and Blakeman, respectively) but I have 0.12 and 0.35 for the two readings of the Colts balls.  
What am I missing?  Where do the 0.16 and 0.14 SD values come from?  
Here are the Colts balls:
Blakeman: 12.7, 12.75, 12.5, 12.55
Prioleau: 12.35, 12.3, 12.95, 12.15
 
I get SDs of 0.12 and 0.35, respectively.   
 

Rosey Ruzicka

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SeanBerry said:
The Jets stuff is wildly creative. Very 1918...good stuff. 
 
But if many of you folks in the small section of people that think Brady is innocent can't even agree how he's innocent... that just doesn't lend a ton of substance towards that point.
 
It doesn't matter how many people in this thread or in overall public perception agree, data and the laws of science do not bend based on opinion polls and internet threads.  Anyone smart enough, who unbiasedly looks at the raw data on time, temperatures, and PSI readings can show that the PSI differences are plausibly explainable by temperature changes and  imprecision of gauge measurement.  While this data can in no way prove the Patriots did not cheat, it also cannot even suggest at a high probability that a human being did let extra air out.  
 
For example:  Exponent excludes any scenario where the balls did not warm up for at least 4,5 minutes indoors for consideration.  If they had considered these scenarios (and they agree with this in the fine print) then temperature would have explained the PSI difference and their claims would be invalid.  Their reasoning for using these assumptions? The NFL told them to only consider those scenarios in their report.
 
There is a reason they hired a firm specializing in building analyses like this instead of an independent academic institution.  No university ever published analyses proving that second hand smoke did not cause cancer, or asbestos doesn't cause cancer, or oil spills in drinking water do not cause cancer.....Exponent has done all of these things for major corporations in the past, which is why they were selected as the right people for this job.
 

nighthob

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djbayko said:
Are you referring to the texts being on AT&T or Verizon servers? How does that help Wells' investigation?
Because the team turned over the full records of all team phones to the investigators.
 

86spike

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ALiveH said:
you guys with 120+ IQs are dissecting the validity of the sound bite.  my overall point is it's a potentially convincing sounding sound bite that can play nationally.  Remember, if the median IQ is 100, then 50% of Americans have an IQ less than 100.  you need a sound bite takes 5 seconds or less to say and will convince someone with an IQ of 90.
 
Or, come up with a better sound bite.  That's what my advice to Yee & Brady would be.
 
This is what's so hard about modern crisis management.  You might have what you think is a great soundbite only to find out that with a few hours you have 45 basement dwellers on youtube who put together "watch me deflate 12 balls in 100 seconds and then watch how long it takes to measure, log and refill 12 balls" videos that prove your soundbite isn't foolproof.
 
If I were advising Brady, I would be steering clear of trying to play the soundbite game.
 
It leaves you wide open more often than not.
 

redsahx

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Given that Brady liked the balls inflated to 12.5 psi and that most games are played in temperatures below 72 degrees it's likely that many of the Patriot's ball acquired by an opposing team via turnover would probably test below 12.5 psi.  You can look at the resumes of the leagues GMs.  Not many Mensa candidates in that bunch.  I'm relatively certain they were not aware of the Gas Law and assumed that the Patriots were under inflating the balls.  In addition, the thought would never have come to them to test their own balls as a control.
This brings up another absurdity in all of this: Are officials now going to bring in each teams balls at halftime during really cold games to ensure they get reset to the 12.5-13.5 PSI range for the second half? Can't have teams using any footballs below 12.5 right? When the officials checked the balls at halftime during the AFCCG, why did they insist on re-inflating the Patriots balls to 13.0, but leaving the Colts balls flirting with the 12.5 mark? Didn't they realize the Colts balls were likely to drop below 12.5 in the 2nd half? I'm not sure they did.

It seems like there was and perhaps still is a misconception among many that a ball being below 12.5 PSI during a game is something that's not supposed to happen.
 
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Filet-O-Fisk said:
I think the Wells report is incorrect regarding standard deviation, as discussed on p. 115. They say that the Patriots balls exhibited more variability because the SD was 0.41 and 0.40 based on the measurements at halftime, while the Colts balls had SDs of 0.16 and 0.14.   I think these numbers are wrong. I have SDs of 0.41 and 0.40 for the Pats balls (Prioleau and Blakeman, respectively) but I have 0.12 and 0.35 for the two readings of the Colts balls.  
What am I missing?  Where do the 0.16 and 0.14 SD values come from?  
Here are the Colts balls:
Blakeman: 12.7, 12.75, 12.5, 12.55
Prioleau: 12.35, 12.3, 12.95, 12.15
 
I get SDs of 0.12 and 0.35, respectively.   
 
 
Are they using the sample SD formula for the Colts balls (since they don't have all of them) and the population SD for the Pats balls? I forget how the formula differs but it is a little different IIRC.
 

nighthob

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DrewDawg said:
Yes. But now I can't talk sports with the guy in the office down the hall because all he says is "Cheaters! Liars!" and that sucks, because prior to this we were able to talk about football. Now that's gone and it sucks.
 
And next year, going to the sports bar and watching all the games? Yeah, okay. I don't want to spend hours dealing with the meatheads. Previously it was "Brady's a pretty boy!" stuff or generic "Pats suck!" but now? It's going to be nonstop shit. Fuck that. And that sucks too.
This is why god invented this website.
 

joe dokes

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natpastime162 said:
Similar to cargo seals, why doesn't the league just put a small serialized sticker or something small and innocuous after the approval process to provide clear evidence of tampering?
 
Or put a bung in the hole. (That's wine talk you perverts!!!!)
 

Ralphwiggum

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What would be the goal of this PR campaign?  Because beyond making Patriot fans feel better about this whole thing (and/or making himself feel better) I'm not sure it is possible to accomplish much anything in the court of public opinion.  I say this as a complete Tom Brady fanboy, but one who really doesn't care even if Tom ordered the equipment manager to deflate the balls below the legal limit.
 

Harry Hooper

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djbayko said:
This is all part of the package of sports. Yes, I get riled up when there is a controversy involving my team, and I'd bet you do too. Judging by the length of this thread, we're not alone. It's not hurting my enjoyment. I'll still be watching the games next year, rooting for Tom Brady...probably even harder than before. This will only serve to strengthen our group identity as Patriots and as fans.
 
 
You're a big fan of the California Penal League?
 

( . ) ( . ) and (_!_)

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ALiveH said:
you guys with 120+ IQs are dissecting the validity of the sound bite.  my overall point is it's a potentially convincing sounding sound bite that can play nationally.  Remember, if the median IQ is 100, then 50% of Americans have an IQ less than 100.  you need a sound bite takes 5 seconds or less to say and will convince someone with an IQ of 90.
 
Or, come up with a better sound bite.  That's what my advice to Yee & Brady would be.
 
 
This is a big part of this that hasn't really been discussed.  The report is fairly easily disproved by looking at the "science" with a critical eye.  However, that would take a lot of explaining about math, science, how to conduct a test, etc...  The population of the United States on average reads at the 7th grade level  (actually higher then I thought it would be).  
 
The NFL has to find the Patriots/Tom guilty.  The only other alternative is explaining a nuanced and complicated equation to the masses of people out there that would either immediately tune it out or not understand it to begin with and then assume the league is covering for Kraft, Tom and the Pats..  I'm sorry if this sounds elitist or if this comes off as me saying "We smart, everyone else stupid", but expecting the masses to understand why the temperature is a viable and likely explanation for the whole thing is just not a reasonable or possible option.
 
The NFL can't leave this open ended and they have no means of actually explaining the truth.  They took the only option they have on the table.  I have no idea how Tom fights to make America understand science.
 

crystalline

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ALiveH said:
you guys with 120+ IQs are dissecting the validity of the sound bite.  my overall point is it's a potentially convincing sounding sound bite that can play nationally.  Remember, if the median IQ is 100, then 50% of Americans have an IQ less than 100.  you need a sound bite takes 5 seconds or less to say and will convince someone with an IQ of 90.
 
Or, come up with a better sound bite.  That's what my advice to Yee & Brady would be.
Framegate.
 

DavidTai

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Given the circumstances, wouldn't they pull the same trick they did with Adrian Peterson and basically drag out the suspension review till the end of the season?
 

joe dokes

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DrewDawg said:
 
Yes. But now I can't talk sports with the guy in the office down the hall because all he says is "Cheaters! Liars!" and that sucks, because prior to this we were able to talk about football. Now that's gone and it sucks.
 
And next year, going to the sports bar and watching all the games? Yeah, okay. I don't want to spend hours dealing with the meatheads. Previously it was "Brady's a pretty boy!" stuff or generic "Pats suck!" but now? It's going to be nonstop shit. Fuck that. And that sucks too.
 
 
Ok, that does suck.  But if the guy down the hall acts like that, he has probably already peed in the office coffee pot or taken pictures from under the bathroom stall door. Dumbassery like that isn't limited to sports.  He's doing you a favor.
 

Ralphwiggum

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( . ) ( . ) and (_!_) said:
 
 
This is a big part of this that hasn't really been discussed.  The report is fairly easily disproved by looking at the "science" with a critical eye.  However, that would take a lot of explaining about math, science, how to conduct a test, etc...  The population of the United States on average reads at the 7th grade level  (actually higher then I thought it would be).  
 
The NFL has to find the Patriots/Tom guilty.  The only other alternative is explaining a nuanced and complicated equation to the masses of people out there that would either immediately tune it out or not understand it to begin with and then assume the league is covering for Kraft, Tom and the Pats..  I'm sorry if this sounds elitist or if this comes off as me saying "We smart, everyone else stupid", but expecting the masses to understand why the temperature is a viable and likely explanation for the whole thing is just not a reasonable or possible option.
 
The NFL can't leave this open ended and they have no means of actually explaining the truth.  They took the only option they have on the table.  I have no idea how Tom fights to make America understand science.
 
Seriously?  You believe that the NFL had to find the Pats/Tom "guilty' because the alternative would be to try to explain some really hard science stuff to stupid Americans?
 

nighthob

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DavidTai said:
Given the circumstances, wouldn't they pull the same trick they did with Adrian Peterson and basically drag out the suspension review till the end of the season?
The NFLPA would conduct a scorched earth war if they tried. You can't really defend a child abuser in America in 2015. Someone that may have been vaguely aware of a picayune rule violation that other active QBs have bragged about committing (and some that have broken it unawares, like Luck and his preference for balls that have been broken in in game conditions)? Well, you can go to war for guys like that.
 

Filet-O-Fisk

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MuppetAsteriskTalk said:
 
 
Are they using the sample SD formula for the Colts balls (since they don't have all of them) and the population SD for the Pats balls? I forget how the formula differs but it is a little different IIRC.
I think sample SD would be larger because you divide by N-1 as opposed to N.
The language in this report is so convoluted, and the locations of methodological descriptions are so vague it's hard to figure out what they did. It doesn't help that there is wide variability in where things are explained, sometimes in footnotes, sometimes in text, sometimes in a figure or table legend.
 
Interesting that there is no conflict of interest statement anywhere in this report.  I don't know if the investigators were biased in favor of not embarrassing the NFL, but it really should be stated plainly for everyone to see that this report was paid for by the NFL   
 
Feb 19, 2015
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( . ) ( . ) and (_!_) said:
 
 
This is a big part of this that hasn't really been discussed.  The report is fairly easily disproved by looking at the "science" with a critical eye.  However, that would take a lot of explaining about math, science, how to conduct a test, etc...  The population of the United States on average reads at the 7th grade level  (actually higher then I thought it would be).  
 
The NFL has to find the Patriots/Tom guilty.  The only other alternative is explaining a nuanced and complicated equation to the masses of people out there that would either immediately tune it out or not understand it to begin with and then assume the league is covering for Kraft, Tom and the Pats..  I'm sorry if this sounds elitist or if this comes off as me saying "We smart, everyone else stupid", but expecting the masses to understand why the temperature is a viable and likely explanation for the whole thing is just not a reasonable or possible option.
 
The NFL can't leave this open ended and they have no means of actually explaining the truth.  They took the only option they have on the table.  I have no idea how Tom fights to make America understand science.
 
I post on another site that has a lot of math/stats guys and it doesn't matter. If they are Pats fans they accept the problems with the report, and if they are not Pats fans (included self-described unbiased people) they hand waive the data away. For the most part. 
 

nighthob

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DrewDawg said:
Yeah, I've seen it. But a back and forth about cheating isn't the ideal way to spend the time.
Nah, just email them the link to their favourite team. Or suck the fun out of their day by agreeing that cheaters should be punished and feigning outrage over the one time their team got caught and was allowed to skate...
 

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Ralphwiggum said:
 
Seriously?  You believe that the NFL had to find the Pats/Tom "guilty' because the alternative would be to try to explain some really hard science stuff to stupid Americans?
 
I think it certainly factored into the decision.  It's not hard to imagine what the fallout or comments would be if they had used science to conclude that there was a high probability that temperature explains the whole thing.  Many people would conclude that the NFL was sweeping it under the rug because Kraft and Goodell are close.  No matter how good the science is, it would never be 100% obvious that nothing dubious happened or people would just tune it out..  I don't think that point is really up for debate.  
 
The NFL when weighing their options surely considered that and what the PR effect would be if people think they are "covering" for one franchise.  I don't think this is a controversial stance.  
 

Marbleheader

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Tom's post-football career plans may be taking a significant hit. He may just want to fade into the sunset, but if he has an ambitious career planned, he's going to have to fight this with vigor.
 

dcmissle

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DrewDawg said:
 
Yes. But now I can't talk sports with the guy in the office down the hall because all he says is "Cheaters! Liars!" and that sucks, because prior to this we were able to talk about football. Now that's gone and it sucks.
 
And next year, going to the sports bar and watching all the games? Yeah, okay. I don't want to spend hours dealing with the meatheads. Previously it was "Brady's a pretty boy!" stuff or generic "Pats suck!" but now? It's going to be nonstop shit. Fuck that. And that sucks too.
My advice some months ago was to channel your inner Raider fan. It's high reward being a Pats fan; it's also high maintenance.

First, you can't get upset about whatever anyone else says -- don't even notice it, except to the extent that it fuels a determination to pillage the League on the field.

Second, resign yourself to the fact that there is always something. Always. If there is any significant discipline of TB, accept that it is going to drag well into the summer, and in fact well into training camp before it's resolved. And it may not be resolved then.

Life is always going to be messy as long as TB or BB are around. There is never going to be any sustained period of tranquility. It is what it is.

Which is a good thing on balance, cause it means they are winning.
 

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86spike said:
 
And if you're going that direction you (as advisor per the subject of this thread) need to know for sure that there is not skeleton in the closet, no matter how hidden, that might contradict those claims, right?  
 
I think we'll get some interesting insight into whether or not Team Brady is 100% sure he never asked for or was involved with ball tampering post-ref-inspection once the punishment is handed down.  The wording used for whatever reaction they have will be telling, IMO.
I believe that Tom never told anyone to get the balls below 12.5.  But of course, if I was advising Tom, I would ask him to confirm that and if there was anything out there that could bite him in the ass.  When I wrote my post above, I was assuming the answer to that is "Confirmed and Nothing to Bite Me in the Ass."
 
 
I don't think you will get the clarity you are suggesting by reading the Tom tea leaves.  PR is an art, not a science, and that Tom's team advises that he do X instead of Y will be based on a number of reasons, many of which will not be apparent to us, making your "AHA!" moment rather unreliable.    
 

notfar

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This makes me hate about 90% of the people in the world.
 

Ralphwiggum

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( . ) ( . ) and (_!_) said:
 
I think it certainly factored into the decision.  It's not hard to imagine what the fallout or comments would be if they had used science to conclude that there was a high probability that temperature explains the whole thing.  Many people would conclude that the NFL was sweeping it under the rug because Kraft and Goodell are close.  No matter how good the science is, it would never be 100% obvious that nothing dubious happened or people would just tune it out..  I don't think that point is really up for debate.  
 
The NFL when weighing their options surely considered that and what the PR effect would be if people think they are "covering" for one franchise.  I don't think this is a controversial stance.  
 
I completely agree that the NFL was probably motivated by factors other than getting at the truth when commissioning the Wells report, and avoiding the perception that they are "covering" for the Pats was probably something they thought about.   But it is a leap from there to say that because nobody would have understood the science they were left with no choice but to nail the Pats.
 
It isn't that nobody understands the science, it is that nobody gives a shit about it. That's why they can get away with a report that relies on shitty science.
 
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Filet-O-Fisk said:
I think sample SD would be larger because you divide by N-1 as opposed to N.
The language in this report is so convoluted, and the locations of methodological descriptions are so vague it's hard to figure out what they did. It doesn't help that there is wide variability in where things are explained, sometimes in footnotes, sometimes in text, sometimes in a figure or table legend.
 
Interesting that there is no conflict of interest statement anywhere in this report.  I don't know if the investigators were biased in favor of not embarrassing the NFL, but it really should be stated plainly for everyone to see that this report was paid for by the NFL   
 
Yes, that's correct and makes sense since as the sample SD is estimating the population it shouldn't be smaller.
 

Ralphwiggum

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soxhop411 said:
 
ProFootballTalk ‏@ProFootballTalk  51s51 seconds ago
My guess on Brady suspension: Four games for the violation, plus something more for the refusal to fully cooperate with the investigation.
 
 
Violation of what?  The rule against being generally aware that the equipment guys were deflating footballs.
 
Although I voted no suspension, of course I wouldn't put it past Goodell to try to suspend him.  I just don't see what he's going to hang his hat on to do so.
 

J.McG

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Former Patriot and current Jets supporter, Damien Woody, apparently spent his day in Bristol selling the quarterback and coach that helped him win 2 Super Bowl rings down the river:
https://twitter.com/ProFootballTalk/status/596772760061353984  https://twitter.com/ESPNNFL/status/596736526257627136
 

TheoShmeo

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J.McG said:
Former Patriot and current Jets supporter, Damien Woody, apparently spent his day in Bristol selling the quarterback and coach that help him win 2 Super Bowl rings down the river:
https://twitter.com/ProFootballTalk/status/596772760061353984  https://twitter.com/ESPNNFL/status/596736526257627136
 
 
notfar said:
This makes me hate about 90% of the people in the world.
Ditto.
 
And Woody is squarely in my 90%. 
 
(Though I might inject the word "sports" before "world," by why quibble?)
 
I would love to be a fly on the wall the next time Tom comes across this piece of shit.