#DFG: Canceling the Noise

Is there any level of suspension that you would advise Tom to accept?


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wiffleballhero

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In the simulacrum
Bob420 said:
Whether or not they checked them before the game doesn't seem to matter for the argument that weather and conditions changed the pressure. If the Colts footballs were at 13 pounds and Pats were over 2 lbs lighter, the weather didn't change it. Unless one believes the Colts would over inflate to 15+ lbs in prep for a cold/rainy game.
If Luck is like Rodgers then this is actually what we could believe. And if the Colts practice with Luck's rocks they might feel the Pats balls are a little soft -- or know that their own balls will never come up soft because of Luck's preferences -- and thus, with the sour grapes about getting killed out there, complain.
 

Bob420

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Yes. Only two scenarios. Balls were severely under weight going in or they were doctored. No need to discuss weather impact or other factors.
 

genoasalami

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Please - no more posts about weather changing the pressure. The change in pressure of the footballs has nothing to do with weather. As someone with a degree in meteorology, I can tell you that with 100% assurance. The ONLY logical explanation is that SOMEONE let the air out of the balls or simply inflated them to a certain pressure - more than likely to suit Tom Brady's preference.
 

bsan34

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H78 said:
Sumner - do you know how rapidly the PSI can drop? Can a football really lose 2.0 pounds of pressure in less than about three and a half hours (the time between when the balls were supposed to be checked before the game started, and half time when the decreased pressure was noticed)?
 
That's the other thing to consider, isn't it? I think we all agree that a difference in PSI can occur with temperature variances. But how rapidly can it happen when the temperature goes from about 50 degrees to 30 degrees over the course of 3.5 hours?
 
It basically changes instantaneously in response to temperature. Every high school chemistry or physics class does a lab (or two) monitoring the relationship between pressure, volume, and temperature of gases. 
 

Devizier

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Hoya81 said:
Surprising from Deadspin, they and KSK are always looking to tweak the nose of Pats fans. 
 
Deadspin likes to play both sides on pretty much anything. Easiest way to generate a shit-ton of traffic.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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BigSoxFan said:
Anybody in PR? Is the Pats' silence a smart play or does it really matter? I presume they're waiting for all the facts to come out before issuing some kind of measured response but curious to know if that's typical in these situations.
 
Stacy James has already made the expected "We will fully cooperate with the league's investigation" comments.
 

SumnerH

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H78 said:
Sumner - do you know how rapidly the PSI can drop? Can a football really lose 2.0 pounds of pressure in less than about three and a half hours (the time between when the balls were supposed to be checked before the game started, and half time when the decreased pressure was noticed)?
 
That's the other thing to consider, isn't it? I think we all agree that a difference in PSI can occur with temperature variances. But how rapidly can it happen when the temperature goes from about 50 degrees to 30 degrees over the course of 3.5 hours?
 
2.0 seems beyond what could happen just from temperature, given the game conditions.  The change happens as quickly as the ball adjusts to the outside temperature (IOW, the answer is the same as "how long does it take for a ball that was indoors at 70F to become 40F all the way through when you take it outside into 40F temperatures); I dunno specifically, but it seems like 90 minutes outside would at least get you most of the way there.
 
What was the temperature at halftime (I've only seen references to the kickoff temp)?  If it was 50F, then about 1-1.1 PSI drop is attributable to temperature.  If it was 40F, that goes to 1.6 PSI.  
 
Either way there's still some 'splainin to do if the difference is 2 PSI.  Perhaps that explanation lies in pressure gauges that are only accurate to .5 PSI; perhaps it lies in air leakage over time or Gronk spikes and game wear (the fact that the Colts' balls didn't see the same drop and that the balls seem evenly worn makes the game wear/air leakage explanations pretty unlikely to me).   Or perhaps the balls turned into the refs were below spec, or the balls were tampered with post-measurement.
 

Section30

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BigSoxFan said:
Anybody in PR? Is the Pats' silence a smart play or does it really matter? I presume they're waiting for all the facts to come out before issuing some kind of measured response but curious to know if that's typical in these situations.
Perhaps the the league instructed them to withhold comments on an ongoing investigation?
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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genoasalami said:
Please - no more posts about weather changing the pressure. The change in pressure of the footballs has nothing to do with weather. As someone with a degree in meteorology, I can tell you that with 100% assurance. The ONLY logical explanation is that SOMEONE let the air out of the balls or simply inflated them to a certain pressure - more than likely to suit Tom Brady's preference.
Right. If Anderson is telling the league he measured all balls before the game and they were all in compliance or borought to compliance, but at halftime, the Patriots' balls were 2 lbs. out of compliance and the Colts' balls were not, weather is just wishful thinking. I am bracing myself for this being exactly what Anderson said, but holding some hope that they didn't actually do a psi check.
 

Hendu for Kutch

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H78

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genoasalami said:
Please - no more posts about weather changing the pressure. The change in pressure of the footballs has nothing to do with weather. As someone with a degree in meteorology, I can tell you that with 100% assurance. The ONLY logical explanation is that SOMEONE let the air out of the balls or simply inflated them to a certain pressure - more than likely to suit Tom Brady's preference.
 
Yeah, I agree, and this is sort of what I'm getting at. It doesn't seem likely that a football is going to lose 2.0 PSI in about three and a half hours because of a 20 degree temperature change. I think that's a Hail Mary (sorry for the pun) explanation if I've ever heard one. I think people are trying to come up with "plausible" but not "conclusive" explanations because they want to find a reason to give the Patriots a pass (sorry again for the pun) here.
 
If this was intentional, while it is STUPID that we all have to deal with it as fans, it's even stupider that the Patriots actually tried bending the rules again in such a big spot. I mean, you're the Patriots. The vast majority of sports fans are looking for any and every reason to bury you and the people who support your club...don't make it so freakin' easy.
 

Corsi

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mulluysavage said:
Where did Rodgers admit to over-inflating balls? I see him saying he likes them that way, and wishes there were a minimum but no max. I don't see him saying he and his team pump them up over any limit.
 
“(Rodgers) said something [that] was unique,” Simms revealed. “[Rodgers said] ‘I like to push the limit to how much air we can put in the football, even go over what they allow you to do and see if the officials take air out of it.’ Because he thinks it’s easier for him to grip. He likes them tight.”
 
http://profootballzone.com/nfc/aaron-rodgers-likes-overinflate-footballs/
 

SumnerH

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genoasalami said:
Please - no more posts about weather changing the pressure. The change in pressure of the footballs has nothing to do with weather. As someone with a degree in meteorology, I can tell you that with 100% assurance. The ONLY logical explanation is that SOMEONE let the air out of the balls or simply inflated them to a certain pressure - more than likely to suit Tom Brady's preference.
 
This is simply wrong, as anyone with an elementary understanding of physics knows.
 

DJnVa

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So, I know it was 50 and rainy at start of game--what was it as it approached the half?
 
If the Pats had balls at the exact lowest allowed when refs checked and they dropped AT ALL in next 4 hours, it's going to be below the limit. If the Colts had their balls at the higher end of the range, any loss in pressure would still keep them legal.
 

Leather

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Smiling Joe Hesketh said:
 
Stacy James has already made the expected "We will fully cooperate with the league's investigation" comments.
 
 
The last thing they want to do is say anything that can be refuted later.
 
Assuming the team has no direct knowledge, that's the right thing to do.   Right now, the only thing they probably can say is "We don't know exactly what the fuck happened."
 

fairlee76

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H78 said:
 
Yeah, I agree, and this is sort of what I'm getting at. It doesn't seem likely that a football is going to lose 2.0 PSI in about three and a half hours because of a 20 degree temperature change. I think that's a Hail Mary (sorry for the pun) explanation if I've ever heard one. I think people are trying to come up with "plausible" but not "conclusive" explanations because they want to find a reason to give the Patriots a pass (sorry again for the pun) here.
 
If this was intentional, while it is STUPID that we all have to deal with it as fans, it's even stupider that the Patriots actually tried bending the rules again in such a big spot. I mean, you're the Patriots. The vast majority of sports fans are looking for any and every reason to bury you and the people who support your club...don't make it so freakin' easy.
How about 11 footballs?
 

KiltedFool

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More likely the Patriots are familiar with how many cases there have been where a statement released early in a crisis is contradicted by later information being released and makes the early statement look far worse.  The classic "coverup is worse than the crime" scenario.  Recall how James O'Keefe's sting operations he would release one or two videos, wait for the huge denunciations of isolated incident and similar, then release more of what he had?  The Patriots aren't going to put themselves in a position where that sort of thing can happen, effectively hanging themselves with their own words.
 

djbayko

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Bob420 said:
Yes. Only two scenarios. Balls were severely under weight going in or they were doctored. No need to discuss weather impact or other factors.
What? You clearly aren't listening to others in this thread.
 

H78

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SumnerH said:
 
2.0 seems beyond what could happen just from temperature, given the game conditions.  The change happens as quickly as the ball adjusts to the outside temperature (IOW, the answer is the same as "how long does it take for a ball that was indoors at 70F to become 40F all the way through when you take it outside into 40F temperatures); I dunno specifically, but it seems like 90 minutes outside would at least get you most of the way there.
 
What was the temperature at halftime (I've only seen references to the kickoff temp)?  If it was 50F, then about 1-1.1 PSI drop is attributable to temperature.  If it was 40F, that goes to 1.6 PSI.  
 
Either way there's still some 'splainin to do if the difference is 2 PSI.  Perhaps that explanation lies in pressure gauges that are only accurate to .5 PSI; perhaps it lies in air leakage over time or Gronk spikes and game wear (the fact that the Colts' balls didn't see the same drop and that the balls seem evenly worn makes the game wear/air leakage explanations pretty unlikely to me).   Or perhaps the balls turned into the refs were below spec, or the balls were tampered with post-measurement.
 
Thanks - this is interesting regardless of whether it had an effect on the footballs or not.
 

djbayko

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genoasalami said:
Please - no more posts about weather changing the pressure. The change in pressure of the footballs has nothing to do with weather. As someone with a degree in meteorology, I can tell you that with 100% assurance. The ONLY logical explanation is that SOMEONE let the air out of the balls or simply inflated them to a certain pressure - more than likely to suit Tom Brady's preference.
As someone with a degree in engineering, I will say you are absolutely wrong.
 

bluefenderstrat

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H78 said:
 
Yeah, I agree, and this is sort of what I'm getting at. It doesn't seem likely that a football is going to lose 2.0 PSI in about three and a half hours because of a 20 degree temperature change. I think that's a Hail Mary (sorry for the pun) explanation if I've ever heard one. I think people are trying to come up with "plausible" but not "conclusive" explanations because they want to find a reason to give the Patriots a pass (sorry again for the pun) here.
 
If this was intentional, while it is STUPID that we all have to deal with it as fans, it's even stupider that the Patriots actually tried bending the rules again in such a big spot. I mean, you're the Patriots. The vast majority of sports fans are looking for any and every reason to bury you and the people who support your club...don't make it so freakin' easy.
 
This is a tempest in a teapot.   The league has done EVERYTHING in its power to increase scoring over the years-- they should just do away with the PSI requirement in the off-season and acknowledge the fact that QB's deserve to throw balls at whatever level of softness/hardness they and their receivers prefer.  You know, since this is entertainment and all.
 

TomRicardo

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SumnerH said:
 
2.0 seems beyond what could happen just from temperature, given the game conditions.  The change happens as quickly as the ball adjusts to the outside temperature (IOW, the answer is the same as "how long does it take for a ball that was indoors at 70F to become 40F all the way through when you take it outside into 40F temperatures); I dunno specifically, but it seems like 90 minutes outside would at least get you most of the way there.
 
What was the temperature at halftime (I've only seen references to the kickoff temp)?  If it was 50F, then about 1-1.1 PSI drop is attributable to temperature.  If it was 40F, that goes to 1.6 PSI.  
 
Either way there's still some 'splainin to do if the difference is 2 PSI.  Perhaps that explanation lies in pressure gauges that are only accurate to .5 PSI; perhaps it lies in air leakage over time or Gronk spikes and game wear (the fact that the Colts' balls didn't see the same drop and that the balls seem evenly worn makes the game wear/air leakage explanations pretty unlikely to me).   Or perhaps the balls turned into the refs were below spec, or the balls were tampered with post-measurement.
 
It was a rainy day.  The barometric pressure outdoors is going to be greater than indoors.  The ball will deflate because of that as well.
 
Edit - Not 2.0 PSI
 

Boston Brawler

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DrewDawg said:
So, I know it was 50 and rainy at start of game--what was it as it approached the half?
 
If the Pats had balls at the exact lowest allowed when refs checked and they dropped AT ALL in next 4 hours, it's going to be below the limit. If the Colts had their balls at the higher end of the range, any loss in pressure would still keep them legal.
Searched for history at Foxborough, gives you Norwood...
 
http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KOWD/2015/1/18/DailyHistory.html
 

wilked

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For those still not sure if temperature affects a gas pressure, a simple experiment
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OXpBeTp4N5g
 

SumnerH

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fairlee76 said:
How about 11 footballs?
 
They should all be affected pretty much identically by the temperature (it's not highly variable), unless one was at the end near a heater or something.  But the Colts' balls should be affected exactly the same.  Even if the Colts like theirs at 13.5 and the Pats like theirs at 12.5 then there's something going on beyond the temperature if the leaked info so far is accurate.
 

mulluysavage

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The more context that emerges, the more it feels like messing with footballs is akin to pitchers doctoring baseballs: everybody does it, and nobody looks too closely until an opponent publicly complains. Aaron Rodgers says he likes his balls overinflated. Brad Johnson says that before the Super Bowl, he paid "some guys" $7,500 to illegally rough up 100 game balls. Quarterbacks are understandably particular about the feel of their footballs, and teams seem to have an unspoken agreement to respect each other's freedom to squeeze and scuff and shine their own balls to their preference, as long as it stays within the bounds of decency. Either the Patriots went beyond those bounds, or the Colts were extra-salty and felt they had nothing to lose.
 
This reminds me of steroids in baseball. Money takes over the game, stakes go through the roof. Rules have grey areas, pockets and crannys, winks and nods. Without a fully sound system, players and teams take advantage where they can, or else they will be taken advantage of. As the dirt gets exposed, media and fans use it to defame players and teams along team-fandom lines. The bigger issue is that the system is dysfunctional and has been perverted. The deflated footballs are like hanging chads in the 2000 election- when we get a chance to take a look at the machinations of the system, it doesn't look so pretty.
 

GregHarris

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The science stuff is fine, but I'd like to here reasons why the Colts balls were apparently all inflated properly under the same conditions.  Would this assume that they overinflate their balls, and then the pressure drops into the nominal range?
 

genoasalami

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SumnerH said:
 
This is simply wrong, as anyone with an elementary understanding of physics knows.
 
 
No it is not ...game temperature was 51 degrees ...not nearly cold enough to change the pressure of a football by 2 PSI. Not even close. Would the change  be measurable?? Maybe...with highly detailed instrumentation...and most likely by a trained scientist..not some guy sticking a pressure gauge into a football and rounding to the nearest 1/4 pound of pressure.
 

djbayko

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bsan34 said:
 
It basically changes instantaneously in response to temperature. Every high school chemistry or physics class does a lab (or two) monitoring the relationship between pressure, volume, and temperature of gases. 
No, I think H78 is referring to the time required for the air inside the ball to reach equilibrium with the outside temp. This is not instantaneous, but intuition tells me it's much less than 3 hours. I'm on my phone now, but it can be calculated using Newton's law of cooling.
 

Bob420

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djbayko said:
What? You clearly aren't listening to others in this thread.
I am listening and the fact that all the Colts footballs came in at 13 lbs means what? They over inflated by the exact amount needed to drop during weather conditions they can't control to hit 13 lbs?
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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SumnerH said:
This is simply wrong, as anyone with an elementary understanding of physics knows.
Any physics explanation for weather dropping the pressure in 11 ball but not 12? Gulp.

And the underlying premise here seems to be the balls were measured outdoors at halftime. How long should it take for the air inside a football to change? If I bring a football that has been in 45 degree air for two hours into a 70 degree room, how long does it take for the air in the ball to get up to 70 degrees?
 

jasail

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wilked said:
For those still not sure if temperature affects a gas pressure, a simple experiment
 
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OXpBeTp4N5g
 
Or you know, car tires. 
 
p1v1/t1 = p2v2/t2 - welcome back to freshman chemistry and now solve for p2.
 

Drocca

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To the PR question: the Pats don't need to do anything because the NFL has more riding on a quick outcome to the investigation. They will not allow their marquee game to be overshadowed by a cheating story. Pats just have to wait to find out if NFL decides it was deliberate (lose a 3rd rounder) or the onus is placed on the Refs.
 

genoasalami

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djbayko said:
As someone with a degree in engineering, I will say you are absolutely wrong.
 
If you think that a football being moved from a 70 degree room into a 51 degree room is going to lose 2 PSI than you are crazy. It is not.
 

Devizier

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DennyDoyle'sBoil said:
Any physics explanation for weather dropping the pressure in 11 ball but not 12? Gulp.
 
All the science-y posts have indicated that there's no way the weather change accounted for the discrepancy in pressure.
 

amarshal2

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Drocca said:
To the PR question: the Pats don't need to do anything because the NFL has more riding on a quick outcome to the investigation. They will not allow their marquee game to be overshadowed by a cheating story. Pats just have to wait to find out if NFL decides it was deliberate (lose a 3rd rounder) or the onus is placed on the Refs.
I don't know how you have such faith in the NFL.
 

fairlee76

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SumnerH said:
 
They should all be affected pretty much identically by the temperature (it's not highly variable), unless one was at the end near a heater or something.  But the Colts' balls should be affected exactly the same.  Even if the Colts like theirs at 13.5 and the Pats like theirs at 12.5 then there's something going on beyond the temperature if the leaked info so far is accurate.
Right.  As you and others with far more knowledge than I of physics and meteorology have stated, if these 11 balls really dropped by 2 PSI from the refs pre-game check to halftime, that is no accident.
 
Bah, I'd rather be reading everyone's takes on the match-up with the Seahawks than fixating on ball-gate.  But here I am.
 

Hendu for Kutch

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Is it established that the -2 PSI is off the low end of the range (12.5) or off the established target PSI (13).  Basically, are we talking about 10.5 or 11?
 
Has it also been established that this -2 is constant among the 11 balls, or is it rather an average, or a high or low end example?  Is it 11 balls "at least -2 PSI", "up to -2 PSI", or "at an average of -2 PSI".  These are all very different scenarios and I haven't seen an explanation of which scenario is the correct one beyond assumptions.
 

SumnerH

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genoasalami said:
 
 
No it is not ...game temperature was 51 degrees ...not nearly cold enough to change the pressure of a football by 2 PSI. Not even close. Would the change  be measurable?? Maybe...with highly detailed instrumentation...and most likely by a trained scientist..not some guy sticking a pressure gauge into a football and rounding to the nearest 1/4 pound of pressure.
 
It'd be about 1 PSI of change from 70F to 51F.  Which is less than 2 PSI, but not the "no effect" you were claiming before.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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Hendu for Kutch said:
Is it established that the -2 PSI is off the low end of the range (12.5) or off the established target PSI (13).  Basically, are we talking about 10.5 or 11?
 
Has it also been established that this -2 is constant among the 11 balls, or is it rather an average, or a high or low end example?  Is it 11 balls "at least -2 PSI", "up to -2 PSI", or "at an average of -2 PSI".  These are all very different scenarios and I haven't seen an explanation of which scenario is the correct one beyond assumptions.
It actually would make me feel better if all 11 balls were measured to be the same at halftime. This at least takes the poking a needle explanation out of the equation. It requires a ball boy to be in a room with a needle, pump, and guage for more than a few minutes.
 

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Bob420 said:
I am listening and the fact that all the Colts footballs came in at 13 lbs means what? They over inflated by the exact amount needed to drop during weather conditions they can't control to hit 13 lbs?
 
If the Colts had the their balls at the high end of the spectrum and the Patriots had theirs at the low end of the spectrum that would make sense.
 
Edit - Between having no running game and Luck I would imagine the Colts would want their balls as inflated as possible.
 

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Hendu for Kutch said:
Is it established that the -2 PSI is off the low end of the range (12.5) or off the established target PSI (13).  Basically, are we talking about 10.5 or 11?
 
 
There was some debate as to his sources, but Gerry Austin had indicated it was -2 PSI from the established target.  So 11 PSI.  It's also unclear how many balls were that far under.
 

djbayko

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DennyDoyle'sBoil said:
Any physics explanation for weather dropping the pressure in 11 ball but not 12? Gulp.
The report only said that one ball wasn't *as much as* 2 psi outside of acceptable range. That 12th ball could have started with a slightly higher internal pressure.