#DFG: Canceling the Noise

Is there any level of suspension that you would advise Tom to accept?


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Byrdbrain

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EpsteinsGorillaSuit said:
This thread is a horrorshow of speculation and rationalization and I'm not going back to see if anyone has thrown out any actual math in it.
 
I'm a chemist. The effect of temperature on the pressure of a football is easy to figure out assuming the ideal gas law, which should be accurate enough for this problem. PV = nRT, where P is pressure, V is volume, n is the number of gas molecules (should not change in absence of deflation), R is the ideal gas constant, and T is temperature (in Kelvin, not Fahrenheit).
 
This equation shows that a ball inflated/tested at 70 degrees F (294 K) and then tested again after coming to temperature at 40 degrees (278 K, colder than game temp) would measure 94% (278/294) of the original pressure. An unadultered ball inflated to 13 PSI at 70 degrees would read 12.2 PSI at 40 degrees or 12.5 PSI at 50 degrees. 
 
You would have to cool the ball down to -10 F for it to reach 11 PSI, two pounds below its original pressure.
You are making the same mistake Geno made in using gage pressure instead of absolute pressure. Using absolute pressure you lose around 1 psi, not enough to explain this situation but bad math is still bad.
 

SumnerH

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EpsteinsGorillaSuit said:
This thread is a horrorshow of speculation and rationalization and I'm not going back to see if anyone has thrown out any actual math in it.
 
I'm a chemist. The effect of temperature on the pressure of a football is easy to figure out assuming the ideal gas law, which should be accurate enough for this problem. PV = nRT, where P is pressure, V is volume, n is the number of gas molecules (should not change in absence of deflation), R is the ideal gas constant, and T is temperature (in Kelvin, not Fahrenheit).
 
This equation shows that a ball inflated/tested at 70 degrees F (294 K) and then tested again after coming to temperature at 40 degrees (278 K, colder than game temp) would measure 94% (278/294) of the original pressure. An unadultered ball inflated to 13 PSI at 70 degrees would read 12.2 PSI at 40 degrees or 12.5 PSI at 50 degrees. 
 
You would have to cool the ball down to -10 F for it to reach 11 PSI, two pounds below its original pressure.
 
You need absolute pressure, not gauge pressure.  The 13 PSI ball is at 27.7 PSI absolute pressure, down to 26.038 PSI (94%) when it cools, which is 11.3 PSI gauge pressure.
 

Marciano490

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pedroia'sboys said:
And if that happened what would winning the Super Bowl mean? It would mean jack shit, and we lose an icon. I'm so annoyed at all this bullshit, if the NFL doesn't come out with something today it's an epic failure. If BB turns into Pete Rose because of this and retires, I don't give a crap about the Super Bowl
 
That's why I'm worried about reffing during the SB if this isn't resolved beforehand.  Isn't the cleanest outcome for the NFL having the Seahawks win?
 
vadertime said:
So 11/12 Pats balls were found to be under inflated.  Thing is, won't the game action itself have lowered the ball pressure?  Between throwing it, dropping it, spiking it, and the drop in temperature I would expect at least 6-7 to be under inflated just based on those things by the end of the game.  For a true test, shouldn't the Colts balls have been taken too?  If the all the Colts balls came back OK, then you have a problem.  If 7-8 of the Colts balls came back under inflated then its something else...
 
Do we know whether they rotate between all 11 or 12 balls during game action?  Seems like a large amount of turnover, but obviously I'd have no idea.
 

Bob420

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fairlee76 said:
I'm going based on Gerry Austin's statement that it was his "understanding" that at least one ball was more than 2 PSI lower at half than at the pre-game check.  But, again, who knows how accurate this is?  And I thought the pre-game check involved an actual pressure check rather than weighing?
Gerry Austin said all 12 came in under 13 and 11 of the 12 over 2 lbs light. Not one but all 11.
 

DJnVa

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EpsteinsGorillaSuit said:
This thread is a horrorshow of speculation and rationalization and I'm not going back to see if anyone has thrown out any actual math in it.
 
 

It does. You should read the thread.
 

PaulinMyrBch

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MYRTLE BEACH!!!!
Found this on a 49rs blog searching for related stuff.
 
Sounds like ball shenanigans were common place before the current rule was in place. Fact is the NFL wants points and they want QB's to have a ball they can perform with.  
 
 
 
Back then, however, the opposing team handled all footballs used in games. And they would send in, perhaps strategically, balls straight out of the box that still had a sheen of waterproofing that made them hard and extremely slick. The following offseason, a group of veteran quarterbacks led by Peyton Manningand Tom Brady petitioned the league to allow both teams to supply balls that had been scuffed up, worn in and had a better grip.

Read more here: http://blogs.sacbee.com/49ers/archives/2013/08/small-hands-smith-how-a-myth-is-born-and-never-dies.html#storylink=cpy
 

djbayko

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EpsteinsGorillaSuit said:
This thread is a horrorshow of speculation and rationalization and I'm not going back to see if anyone has thrown out any actual math in it.
 
I'm a chemist. The effect of temperature on the pressure of a football is easy to figure out assuming the ideal gas law, which should be accurate enough for this problem. PV = nRT, where P is pressure, V is volume, n is the number of gas molecules (should not change in absence of deflation), R is the ideal gas constant, and T is temperature (in Kelvin, not Fahrenheit).
 
This equation shows that a ball inflated/tested at 70 degrees F (294 K) and then tested again after coming to temperature at 40 degrees (278 K, colder than game temp) would measure 94% (278/294) of the original pressure. An unadultered ball inflated to 13 PSI at 70 degrees would read 12.2 PSI at 40 degrees or 12.5 PSI at 50 degrees. 
 
You would have to cool the ball down to -10 F for it to reach 11 PSI, two pounds below its original pressure.
Oh dear. And a chemist. Let's read the thread folks...at least the last 1 or 2 pages.
 

SumnerH

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pappymojo said:
 
This assumes that the Colts balls were not overinflated to start (which is exactly what has been attributed to Aaron Rodgers).  Further this assumes that the game play and usage of the balls does not impact the loss of pressure (as the Patriots ran more plays and their balls saw more usage than the Colts balls).  
 
Both of those are "something else going on", too.  I'm suspicious of the wear and tear argument--if it's true, the balls should have pretty different PSIs at the end rather than being mostly uniform.  Which might be the case, but we need the report.
 

brandonchristensen

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SumnerH said:
You don't _need_ it, but it would be very useful.  Because if it turns out that normal loss over time, plus loss from game play (players landing on the ball, spiking, etc) plus the temperature differential, plus the loss of air from needle testing at least 3 times, plus a lapse between the game time and testing would naturally result in 2 PSI of difference, then you'd expect to see that in the Colts' balls as well.  If theirs are within spec then the idea that it was natural forces rather than someone letting out air isn't plausible.
 
Testing the Colts' balls is an easy way to shoot that theory down quickly.  They're as close a thing as exists to a perfect control group of balls that went through the same kind of conditions and were definitely not tampered with by the Pats.
The pats got to spike their ball a lot more than the colts. They barely touched their balls so they were likely pristine.
 

pappymojo

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bluefenderstrat said:
I want the Pats to all come out wearing "Belichick 1" jerseys for the SB intro.  
 
I want the Patriots to win the game and then to collectively walk off the field together as a team bypassing all the post-game ceremonies.  Would be a nice end cap to the way they came on to the field as a team to start their Championship run in the Belichick/Brady era.
 

DaughtersofDougMirabelli

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This story keeps bringing me back in. I hit a point where I really care and I think about legacy and all the bullshit we'll have to deal with.
 
And then I remember the Pats are in the Super Bowl. Don't give a shit anymore. The Pats just murdered the Colts.
 
Beat the Seahawks and Brady has ring #4. 
 

Auger34

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I have read every page of this thread and I am SHOCKED that no one has pointed out/brought up this particular conspiracy theory...I think this is a lot like Spygate with John Harbaugh playing the part of Eric Mangini.
We know that Harbaugh was pissed off about the 4 lineman trick, something that I think he thinks that while within the rules violates the "unwritten rules" among coaches if you will.
We also know that Pagano and Harbaugh are friends and they talked during the week. La Cranford tweeted that Ravens felt the balls were under inflated during their game.
I think it is entirely possible that Harbaugh told Pagano this and told him to check the PSI as a little tweak or gamesmanship back towards the Pats and the whole "read the rule book" thing. However, I don't think anybody expected it to get leaked to Kravitz and cause this whole shitstorm.
Again, a conspiracy theory but I figure it's somethig else to talk about other than, as thrilling as it may be, PSI and how weather changes inflation
 

Doctor G

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Oil Can Dan said:
From my experience they're 22 or so year old kids that are intern types.
Wasn't this Belichick's first job in pro football for Ted Marchibroda.
 

Tito's Pullover

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Reposting Sumner's ACCURATE math for those that can't be bothered to look past one page:
 
SumnerH said:
 
By my calculations*:
70F to 40F you'd go from 13 PSI to 11.43 PSI (27.7 to 26.13 PSI real pressure), or about 1.5 PSI lost.
70F to 50F you'd go from 13 PSI to 11.94 PSI (27.7 to 26.64 PSI real pressure), or about 1 PSI lost.
 
Note that the nominal pressure of a ball is really shorthand for "X PSI above the normal atmospheric pressure".    Normal atmospheric pressure is about 14.7 PSI; a ball that was measured at "13 PSI" was really at 27.7 PSI of total pressure**.  If it lost 2 PSI of pressure, then it went from 27.7 PSI to 25.7 PSI of total pressure: about a 7% loss.
 
For everyone doing the calculation, that difference is crucial.   If you throw 13 PSI into a Combined Gas Law Calculator for the pressure and then vary the temperature, you'll underestimate the effect of temperature significantly and come to the conclusion that the ball only loses about 0.4 PSI from the 70 to 50F change rather than something more like 1 full PSI.
 
*http://www.calculatoredge.com/chemical/combined%20gas%20law.htm double checked at http://www.1728.org/combined.htm
**If it were actually 13 PSI, it'd be lower pressure than the surrounding air--when you opened the valve, it'd suck in air rather than spewing air out.
 

NortheasternPJ

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tbb345 said:
I have read every page of this thread and I am SHOCKED that no one has pointed out/brought up this particular conspiracy theory...I think this is a lot like Spygate with John Harbaugh playing the part of Eric Mangini.
We know that Harbaugh was pissed off about the 4 lineman trick, something that I think he thinks that while within the rules violates the "unwritten rules" among coaches if you will.
We also know that Pagano and Harbaugh are friends and they talked during the week. La Cranford tweeted that Ravens felt the balls were under inflated during their game.
I think it is entirely possible that Harbaugh told Pagano this and told him to check the PSI as a little tweak or gamesmanship back towards the Pats and the whole "read the rule book" thing. However, I don't think anybody expected it to get leaked to Kravitz and cause this whole shitstorm.
Again, a conspiracy theory but I figure it's somethig else to talk about other than, as thrilling as it may be, PSI and how weather changes inflation
That's because the colts raised the issue in the regular season. It's a dumb conspiracy.
 

kartvelo

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Of course, should the Pats lose the SB, it will be obvious to all that it's because they couldn't cheat this way any more.
 

Ed Hillel

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Anyone know anything about the bylaws? Vikings and Bears got a memo for the same type of thing earlier in the season. If/when Goodell blows up and calls for first round picks/suspensions, will the Pats be able to appeal?
 

Caspir

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Marciano490 said:
 
That's why I'm worried about reffing during the SB if this isn't resolved beforehand.  Isn't the cleanest outcome for the NFL having the Seahawks win?
 
 
It's really the only part of this that has me thinking at all. I can't imagine that the Commissioner wants to stand on stage and hand coach cheater-pants the Lombardi. With that said, the idea of Belichick up there with that smug fucking grin of his taking the trophy from Goodell after winning the SB is an amazing visual. Hopefully the Pats come out strong and it's not a close game, otherwise I'll convince myself there's a conspiracy right around the two minute warning.
 

DaughtersofDougMirabelli

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NortheasternPJ said:
That's because the colts raised the issue in the regular season. It's a dumb conspiracy.
 
No one actually knows that. This is how news works now. One person says something on twitter and everyone takes it as fact. 
 
First it was the D'Qwell Jackson who thought the ball felt flat when he picked it off. Then it was a Colts assistant. Then it was the Colts noticed this last time they played and were looking out for it. 
 
Who knows where this actually started?
 

Leather

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jsinger121 said:
 
IF WHAT IS TRUE?!
 
Report:  "Something bad happened."
 
Rooney: "If that's true, someone will be disciplined."
 

Leather

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Again, is King hearing that there will be discipline, or if there is discipline, it will be deferred?
 
Jesus fucking Christ, sports reporters are the worst.  They couldn't pass 10th grade english.
 
If the Patriots are disciplined during the Superbowl  ("BB is suspended for the SB"), I'm fucking done with the NFL.  I'll fucking give my kids' Pats jerseys to Goodwill. 
 

Marciano490

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Corsi said:
 
Peter King ‏@SI_PeterKing  22s23 seconds ago
Three things about the deflated football issue: 1 It’s likely, but not certain, that discipline will be deferred till after Super Bowl.
Peter King ‏@SI_PeterKing  11s12 seconds ago
2 Some info about what NFL knows could come out later today or tmrw. 3 Very impt element felt by NFL: 31 other teams watching intently.
 
 
Yeah, watching intently because they all do it, too.  Glad to know it's 31 other teams watching, and not, say, 27.
 

Auger34

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NortheasternPJ said:
That's because the colts raised the issue in the regular season. It's a dumb conspiracy.
They actually didn't. This is some revisionist history that Schefter brought up once in a TV appearance. I have not read or heard it anywhere else than there
 

Silverdude2167

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Corsi said:
 
Peter King ‏@SI_PeterKing  22s23 seconds ago
Three things about the deflated football issue: 1 It’s likely, but not certain, that discipline will be deferred till after Super Bowl.
Peter King ‏@SI_PeterKing  11s12 seconds ago
2 Some info about what NFL knows could come out later today or tmrw. 3 Very impt element felt by NFL: 31 other teams watching intently.
 
2. I am going to get a leak soon.
3. Other teams care about what happens to other teams when it comes to breaking the rules.
 

OnWisc

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I have read every page of this thread and I am SHOCKED that no one has pointed out/brought up this particular conspiracy theory...I think this is a lot like Spygate with John Harbaugh playing the part of Eric Mangini.
We know that Harbaugh was pissed off about the 4 lineman trick, something that I think he thinks that while within the rules violates the "unwritten rules" among coaches if you will.
We also know that Pagano and Harbaugh are friends and they talked during the week. La Cranford tweeted that Ravens felt the balls were under inflated during their game.
I think it is entirely possible that Harbaugh told Pagano this and told him to check the PSI as a little tweak or gamesmanship back towards the Pats and the whole "read the rule book" thing. However, I don't think anybody expected it to get leaked to Kravitz and cause this whole shitstorm.
Again, a conspiracy theory but I figure it's somethig else to talk about other than, as thrilling as it may be, PSI and how weather changes inflation
If you're going conspiracy theory, go bigger. Like Belichick intentionally under-inflated the balls knowing they'd be confiscated and secured at NFL headquarters. Which is why he also placed miniature cameras in each of the suspect balls. Now the Patriots organization has the advantage of knowing what is being discussed by senior NFL execs behind closed doors. Hell, Belichick may just be a patsy for the some government agency looking to get video evidence of Goodelll admitting he saw the Rice tape.
 

Filet-O-Fisk

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tbb345 said:
We know that Harbaugh was pissed off about the 4 lineman trick, something that I think he thinks that while within the rules violates the "unwritten rules" among coaches if you will.
We also know that Pagano and Harbaugh are friends and they talked during the week. La Cranford tweeted that Ravens felt the balls were under inflated during their game.
I think it is entirely possible that Harbaugh told Pagano this and told him to check the PSI as a little tweak or gamesmanship back towards the Pats and the whole "read the rule book" thing. However, I don't think anybody expected it to get leaked to Kravitz and cause this whole shitstorm.
Again, a conspiracy theory but I figure it's somethig else to talk about other than, as thrilling as it may be, PSI and how weather changes inflation
Belichick is in everyone's head. We know he has a 4 bedroom condo in Rex Ryan's head. But we also saw John Harbaugh blow up and get flagged because he suspected Belichick was cheating.  And we know Pagano spent some amount of time during the freaking AFC championship game dealing with supposed underinflated balls instead of things that, you know, would have helped him win the game.  
While perhaps it's an advantage to have balls slightly underinflated, it's probably a bigger advantage for the opposing teams to be paranoid about all your shady, super villain antics.    
 

Ed Hillel

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Silverdude2167 said:
2. I am going to get a leak soon.
3. Other teams care about what happens to other teams when it comes to breaking the rules.
I take it as Pats are fucked with punishment. We'll see in his article I guess.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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They're debating this thing on the fucking View.  Anyone saying that the NFL isn't enjoying the fuck out of the attention it's getting during the dead week of Super Bowl lead up is lying to themselves.
 
Edit to add: by dead week, I mean the one without the all out media hype at the Super Bowl location.  No one gives a shit about the Pro Bowl.
 

Koufax

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tbb345 said:
They actually didn't. This is some revisionist history that Schefter brought up once in a TV appearance. I have not read or heard it anywhere else than there
 
Kravitz said it on WEEI this morning.
 

loshjott

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Caspir said:
 
It's really the only part of this that has me thinking at all. I can't imagine that the Commissioner wants to stand on stage and hand coach cheater-pants the Lombardi. With that said, the idea of Belichick up there with that smug fucking grin of his taking the trophy from Goodell after winning the SB is an amazing visual. Hopefully the Pats come out strong and it's not a close game, otherwise I'll convince myself there's a conspiracy right around the two minute warning.
 
 

Byrdbrain

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So just for giggles I played with some numbers to see what temperature the gas in the ball would have had to have been if it was measured before the game so that it would pass the test then but 10.5 psig when measured at halftime.
The magic number is 312k or about 102F.
 
So the Pats could have warmed up the balls to the temperature and/or put gas of that temperature in and it would explain everything.
 
Disclaimer:This is for entertainment purposes only I do not think this is what happened.
 

JimD

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Marciano490 said:
 
Because he only gets 140 characters, he decided to add an adverb rather than make clear that "NFL feels it's very impt".
 
Because it was be so much more work to send three tweets instead of two.
 

ObstructedView

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By next week, when the real SB coverage/hype begins in earnest, everyone will be laughing about this (some already are). This is the first time I've been thankful for the extra week.
 

lexrageorge

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Ed Hillel said:
Particularly one decided by 38 points and favored the winning team 28-0 after the balls were switched.

I wonder what would happen here if Brady takes the fall. I actually think Goodell goes over the top, though, given his prior track record and how this season has played out. Maybe two first rounders and a significant suspension for Belichick. Decent chance this is Belichick's last game I think, as he'd probably retire.
As much as I hate to jump in on the penalty speculation given that we still have precious little information on what may have happened, I'd say such a punishment would be way over the top.
 
This is not a player safety issue (which Bounty-gate was), nor is it a personal conduct issue (no laws were broken).  Nor is it as serious as Belichick's blatantly ignoring Goodell's memo on videotaping.  If the Pats follow through on their vow to "fully cooperate with the investigation" (which the Saints did not, btw), then the most I can see is a series of fines and potentially the loss of mid-round draft pick, which is a fairly serious penalty in its own right.  If there were indeed ball shenanigans on the sideline maybe that becomes a second round pick. 
 

XNOUGHT

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Ed Hillel is at Defcon 1 here.
 
The rules state what the infraction will be. 25k. The Patriots will fight it as hard as they can to make sure the punishment follows the rulebook. Once the media runs out of gas on this story, then we'll get to a more normal state of affairs.
 
The only X factor is Godell, and it's a shitty one.
 

Leather

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XNOUGHT said:
Ed Hillel is at Defcon 1 here.
 
The rules state what the infraction will be. 25k. The Patriots will fight it as hard as they can to make sure the punishment follows the rulebook. Once the media runs out of gas on this story, then we'll get to a more normal state of affairs.
 
The only X factor is Godell, and it's a shitty one.
 
No, it doesn't.  It says that the penalty could be as little as $25 K.
 
For that to be advantageous, you make the argument that the rules, as construed, presuppose that this is a minor violation.  Why? Because it is.
 
Then Goodell says "Well, you've embarrassed the league, and I demand that the league be cleansed of this shame!" and he ups it to $250,000 and a 2nd round pick, and a 4 game suspension of BB next season.
 

kartvelo

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If there were not "ball shenanigans on the sidelines," there should be no penalty whatsoever, because that's the only thing the Pats organization could have done here that would be against the rules.
 

ObstructedView

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lexrageorge said:
As much as I hate to jump in on the penalty speculation that we still know precious little on what may have happened, I'd say such a punishment would be way over the top.
 
This is not a player safety issue (which Bounty-gate was), nor is it a personal conduct issue (no laws were broken).  Nor is it as serious as Belichick's blatantly ignoring Goodell's memo on videotaping.  If the Pats follow through on their vow to "fully cooperate with the investigation" (which the Saints did not, btw), then the most I can see is a series of fines and potentially the loss of mid-round draft pick, which is a fairly serious penalty in its own right.  If there were indeed ball shenanigans on the sideline maybe that becomes a second round pick. 
And will the league also punish the officials who handled the balls throughout the game and failed to notice the apparently huge difference in pressure? Somewhat rhetorical, but part of what's being highlighted through all of this is how there are apparently gaping holes in this supposedly air-tight (sorry for the 11 millionth horrible pun of this thread) protocol around ball management.
 

jimbobim

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Over/ under on pages this thread hits ? 
 
I'd say conservatively over 90 unless it is locked before...