#DFG: Canceling the Noise

Is there any level of suspension that you would advise Tom to accept?


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E5 Yaz

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ifmanis5 said:
The 'tainted' balls resulted in a first half score of 17-7. The 'correct' balls of the second half resulted in a score of 28-0. WHAT. ARE. WE. EVEN. TALKING. ABOUT.
 
You realize that's not the point, right? If you rob a 7-11 in the morning and get away with a couple grand, then win the lottery at night and win a million ... you still robbed the store.
 
The only thing left to prove is whether the Pats robbed the store or the couple grand disappeared through a natural process.
 

Leather

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E5 Yaz said:
 
You realize that's not the point, right? If you rob a 7-11 in the morning and get away with a couple grand, then win the lottery at night and win a million ... you still robbed the bank.
 
The only thing left to prove is whether the Pats robbed the bank or the couple grand disappeared through a natural process.
Or if the bank teller only eyeballed his drawer at the end of the day instead of laboriously counting it out.
 

E5 Yaz

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drleather2001 said:
Or if the bank teller only eyeballed his drawer at the end of the day instead of laboriously counting it out.
 
Exactly
 

P'tucket rhymes with...

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E5 Yaz said:
 
You realize that's not the point, right? If you rob a 7-11 in the morning and get away with a couple grand, then win the lottery at night and win a million ... you still robbed the store.
 
The only thing left to prove is whether the Pats robbed the store or the couple grand disappeared through a natural process.
Keeping in mind that the values of mortgage-backed securities are equally as likely as footballs to expand in heated environments.
 

E5 Yaz

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P'tucket said:
Keeping in mind that the values of mortgage-backed securities are equally as likely as footballs to expand in heated environments.
 
I think we know now why Mark Brunell gets so emotional about this
 

staz

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Kull said:
 
Absolutely. Pretending for a moment that the NFL is competent enough to run an actual sting operation, they also would have pressure tested all the balls at the start of the game. Since the league statement is weasel worded on the pre-game test ("inspect the footballs") but clear on the half-time activity ("footballs were properly inflated") and even the end game test ("confirmed at the conclusion of the game to have remained properly inflated"), this looks more and more like a mid-game Colts "gotcha operation".
What I don't get is why the weasel words re: pregame check? If Volin's "NFL source with direct knowledge of the situation" is correct, that all 48 balls were checked with a pressure gauge before the game started, what's the motivation not to say exactly that?

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/01/23/patriots-footballs-were-inspected-approved-before-afc-title-game/FxnyFsD2KjSEWETZKLTqeL/story.html
 

SumnerH

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snowmanny said:
Absent a smoking gun (e.g. an equipment guy flips), in order to impose a penalty I would think they would need actual psi numbers from initial inspection and halftime for the Pats balls and the Colts balls that someone in Cambridge verifies could not be explained by atmospheric conditions or measurement error.
 
That still doesn't demonstrate that the Pats are responsible.  The Colts were jonesing for this pre-game and alerted the league about it.  Some actual evidence of wrongdoing on the part of the Patriots would be nice before imposing penalties on them.
 

SumnerH

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ifmanis5 said:
She could do a lot worse. Most sources of information on this topic are abysmal to shameful.
 
The 'tainted' balls resulted in a first half score of 17-7. The 'correct' balls of the second half resulted in a score of 28-0. WHAT. ARE. WE. EVEN. TALKING. ABOUT.
 
A rules violation.  Whether it affected the outcome or not is a red herring--you're not allowed to break the rules, some of which are pretty arbitrary.  If you do, you get punished.  That's how sports work.
 

bankshot1

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ifmanis5 said:
Assuming she lives long enough, I'd love to read Doris Kearns Goodwin's bestseller on this topic:
 
Sour Grapes and Bullshit: How One Of The Greatest Runs In NFL History Was Deflated By Exaggerated Scandals And Incompetence: The NFL 2006-2015, A Time Of Cretinous Hysteria And Resentment.
Or Dan Brown's account
 
A dozen flattened footballs are found on the fields of Foxboro. Who could have conspired to corrupt the sanctity of the America's holy game?
A secret organization, tightly controlled by elderly powerful billionaires, who followed rules only of their own design, and led by a powerful monarch would not stop until the truth was found, or concealed forever if it was too damning.
 
De Flated Balls
 

E5 Yaz

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SumnerH said:
 
A rules violation.  Whether it affected the outcome or not is a red herring--you're not allowed to break the rules, some of which are pretty arbitrary.  If you do, you get punished.  That's how sports work.
 
So, we're looking for a MacGuffin?
 

dcmissle

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staz said:
What I don't get is why the weasel words re: pregame check? If Volin's "NFL source with direct knowledge of the situation" is correct, that all 48 balls were checked with a pressure gauge before the game started, what's the motivation not to say exactly that?

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/01/23/patriots-footballs-were-inspected-approved-before-afc-title-game/FxnyFsD2KjSEWETZKLTqeL/story.html
First, I would credit Volin with little or nothing.

Second, I can think of only two reasons to camouflage this. First, to avoid inflaming public opinion so that pre-game discipline is not demanded. That is spurious -- the gauge checking fact is not a game changer on this front.

Second, to hide your cards from future interviewees to conform them with this fact cold. Problem is -- 40 interviews , 40 !, have already taken place, drying which time Volin soilled the beans on this supposed fact.

Make no mistake about it: even in the hands of these people, were this a sting, all balls would have been gauge checked, the pressures for each ball would have been scrupulously recorded, and the whole goddamn process would have been videotaped.
 

mauidano

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E5 Yaz said:
 
This has been said before, but if Mark Brunell was such an expert on character, he wouldn't have gone bankrupt
Brunell will be driving his 1990 Toyota back to his substitute 4th grade teaching job by this time next week. And Aikman? He can take his wanna be 4 day growth hipster beard and be that guy that has his hands in his pockets, head down kicking the dirt, mumbling his apology next time he crosses paths with Tom Brady. Brady should just pull an Ayers and walk away without a word.
 

E5 Yaz

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 New England Patriots players union representative Matthew Slater said Saturday that the NFLPA has advised players not to speak on the NFL's ongoing investigation regarding underinflated footballs.
"We've been instructed by our union, as players, to reserve comment on this situation," Slater said when asked what the NFL could do to avoid a similar situation in the future. "It's an ongoing investigation, and in order to protect our players, we're going to go ahead and not talk about it."
 
 
http://espn.go.com/boston/nfl/story/_/id/12221287/nflpa-advises-players-not-comment-deflategate-investigation-matthew-slater-new-england-patriots-says
 

MainerInExile

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The heated ball theory could be true without B & B knowing about it. I doubt ball boys are inert gas law experts. They might just think putting the balls in the dryer softens the leather.

I can picture the NFL interrogation: "Did you or did you not pass high school chemistry?"
 

SweetLeftyStroke

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jose melendez said:
Anyone have any comments on the why the Patriots don't fumble stats?
 
Seems to me that the big issues are: a) why do we assume fumbles are normally distributed?  b) correlation is not causation.
 
Long-time lurker, so please excuse any formatting issues with my first post...
 
A friend tried to use this article as ammunition, so I actually looked into it. The biggest problem is that I don't believe it includes playoff games. According to my count, from 2010-11 through 2014-15 the Patriots have played eight home playoff games, run 572 plays in those games and fumbled 13 times. Which is a very pedestrian rate of 44.0 plays per fumble. If you add those numbers into this article's five-year stats, the Pats drop to 69.4 plays per fumble over that span. A good number for sure, but not historic or statistically impossible as the headline claims.
 
So basically, if you don't count all the games where the Patriots have fumbled, their fumble rate is pretty good!
 

Kull

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Not news per se, but posted as an easy-to-find reference to the actual NFL rules governing football specs (and the specific responsibilities of the referees):
 
http://static.nfl.com/static/content/public/image/rulebook/pdfs/5_2013_Ball.pdf
 
Rule 2 The Ball
Section 1
BALL DIMENSIONS
The Ball must be a “Wilson,” hand selected, bearing the signature of the Commissioner of the League, Roger Goodell.
The ball shall be made up of an inflated (12 1/2 to 13 1/2 pounds) urethane bladder enclosed in a pebble grained, leather case
(natural tan color) without corrugations of any kind. It shall have the form of a prolate spheroid and the size and weight
shall be: long axis, 11 to 11 1/4 inches; long circumference, 28 to 28 1/2 inches; short circumference, 21 to 21 1/4 inches;
weight, 14 to 15 ounces.
The Referee shall be the sole judge as to whether all balls offered for play comply with these specifications. A pump is to be
furnished by the home club, and the balls shall remain under the supervision of the Referee until they are delivered to the
ball attendant just prior to the start of the game.
Section 2
BALL SUPPLY
Each team will make 12 primary balls available for testing by the Referee two hours and 15 minutes prior to the starting time of
the game to meet League requirements. The home team will also make 12 backup balls available for testing in all
stadiums. In addition, the visitors, at their discretion, may bring 12 backup balls to be tested by the Referee for games
held in outdoor stadiums. For all games, eight new footballs, sealed in a special box and shipped by the manufacturer to
the Referee, will be opened in the officials’ locker room two hours and 15 minutes prior to the starting time of the game.
These balls are to be specially marked by the Referee and used exclusively for the kicking game.
In the event a home team ball does not conform to specifications, or its supply is exhausted, the Referee shall secure a proper
ball from the visitors and, failing that, use the best available ball. Any such circumstances must be reported to the
Commissioner.
In case of rain or a wet, muddy, or slippery field, a playable ball shall be used at the request of the offensive team’s center.
The Game Clock shall not stop for such action (unless undue delay occurs).
Note: It is the responsibility of the home team to furnish playable balls at all times by attendants from either side of the playing
field.
 

Ed Hillel

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GQ has a feature article coming out about Goodell painting he and Kraft as besties and quoting a GM calling Kraft Assistant Commissioner. Excellent.
 

epraz

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Ed Hillel said:
GQ has a feature article coming out about Goodell painting he and Kraft as besties and quoting a GM calling Kraft Assistant Commissioner. Excellent.
 
Interesting take, considering Kraft is essentially a part owner of the NFL.
 

speedracer

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SweetLeftyStroke said:
 
Long-time lurker, so please excuse any formatting issues with my first post...
 
A friend tried to use this article as ammunition, so I actually looked into it. The biggest problem is that I don't believe it includes playoff games. According to my count, from 2010-11 through 2014-15 the Patriots have played eight home playoff games, run 572 plays in those games and fumbled 13 times. Which is a very pedestrian rate of 44.0 plays per fumble. If you add those numbers into this article's five-year stats, the Pats drop to 69.4 plays per fumble over that span. A good number for sure, but not historic or statistically impossible as the headline claims.
 
So basically, if you don't count all the games where the Patriots have fumbled, their fumble rate is pretty good!
 
The other huge problem is that the difference between 1% and 2% doesn't look huge, but the difference between 100 and 50 does.
 

njnesportsfan

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Well after all the dust settles, I think I am gonna write a movie script and would like some recommendations on who play the villains (Aikman, Brunell, etc.) My preference is not to have the villains to play the role of themselves, unless they are really desperate for money. 
 

mt8thsw9th

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SweetLeftyStroke said:
 
Long-time lurker, so please excuse any formatting issues with my first post...
 
A friend tried to use this article as ammunition, so I actually looked into it. The biggest problem is that I don't believe it includes playoff games. According to my count, from 2010-11 through 2014-15 the Patriots have played eight home playoff games, run 572 plays in those games and fumbled 13 times. Which is a very pedestrian rate of 44.0 plays per fumble. If you add those numbers into this article's five-year stats, the Pats drop to 69.4 plays per fumble over that span. A good number for sure, but not historic or statistically impossible as the headline claims.
 
So basically, if you don't count all the games where the Patriots have fumbled, their fumble rate is pretty good!
Get that logic shit out of here.
 

gryoung

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ifmanis5 said:
Assuming she lives long enough, I'd love to read Doris Kearns Goodwin's bestseller on this topic:
 
Sour Grapes and Bullshit: How One Of The Greatest Runs In NFL History Was Deflated By Exaggerated Scandals And Incompetence: The NFL 2006-2015, A Time Of Cretinous Hysteria And Resentment.
 
NYT review - " A brilliant read - all 790 pages!"
 

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SweetLeftyStroke said:
 
Long-time lurker, so please excuse any formatting issues with my first post...
 
A friend tried to use this article as ammunition, so I actually looked into it. The biggest problem is that I don't believe it includes playoff games. According to my count, from 2010-11 through 2014-15 the Patriots have played eight home playoff games, run 572 plays in those games and fumbled 13 times. Which is a very pedestrian rate of 44.0 plays per fumble. If you add those numbers into this article's five-year stats, the Pats drop to 69.4 plays per fumble over that span. A good number for sure, but not historic or statistically impossible as the headline claims.
 
So basically, if you don't count all the games where the Patriots have fumbled, their fumble rate is pretty good!
 
I mean, for two of those years they had BenJarvus Green-Ellis who famously never fumbled, and basically continued his sure-handedness in Cincinatti.
 
Also:
 

I spoke with a data scientist who I know from work on the NFLproject.com website, and sent him the data.  He said:
 

Based on the assumption that fumbles per play follow a normal distribution, you’d expect to see, according to random fluctuation, the results that the Patriots have gotten over this period, once in 16,233.77 instances”.
Which in layman’s terms means that this result only being a coincidence, is like winning a raffle where you have a 0.0000616 probability to win. Which in other words, it’s very unlikely that it’s a coincidence.
 
If this guy has to call an expert to figure out a normal distribution for a given mean and variance, then he doesn't know what he's doing.  We're talking Probability 101 level stuff here.  This dude is a clown.
 

dcdrew10

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The thing that gives me some hope is there is no way the Ginger Hammer would miss the chance to look tough in front of the cameras or at the very least there's no way the NFL wouldn't control the spin if it's a serious punishment.

But I could see the Pats running the presser if it's to say "The NFL has informed us that it found no evidence of wrongdoing..." Just to save the League some face and not expose Goodell or other executives to the "scrutiny" of the press.
 

Ed Hillel

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It's video of Harbaugh with a fake moustache sneaking into the stadium 3 hours before the game.
 

Jettisoned

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Wet dream: Pats know they did nothing wrong, announce boycott of the Super Bowl unless the NFL publicly admits that there is no evidence of ball tampering and that the pressure differential would have caused no competitive advantage. The NFL must publicly apologize to the NEP as a whole, and Roger Goodell must issue a public, personal apology to TB, BB and Robert Kraft before resigning for gross incompetence.
 

Leather

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I really hope this isn't a "I'm stepping aside until this is resolved" bit