Seeing as every football game ever played below 40 degrees has been played with footballs under the rule book psi range, no, it isn't a big deal.veritas said:
#DFG: Canceling the Noise
- Thread starter nattysez
- Start date
https://twitter.com/nytsports/status/560293136170516482singaporesoxfan said:
link to tweet
Just one.
Full story up now:
NYT Sports @NYTSportshttps://twitter.com/NYTSports · 29m29 minutes ago
N.F.L. investigators tried to consult Columbia physicists on Deflategate, according to records obtained by @nytimes. http://nyti.ms/1zWhXU8
NYT Sports @NYTSportshttps://twitter.com/NYTSports · 29m29 minutes ago
N.F.L. investigators tried to consult Columbia physicists on Deflategate, according to records obtained by @nytimes. http://nyti.ms/1zWhXU8
I did trial 2 much more quickly. The reality is that the pressure drop happens pretty fast so it didn't seem necessary to keep the ball at 39 for a full hour. Also, not leaving the gauge in made the difference.
So, to repeat, starting pressure at 13.0 in about 71 degree conditions. I deflated the football and filled it with a hand pump to 13.0, and tested it after 10 minutes and after 20 minutes in the same room to make sure it was holding steady at 13.0 and it was. Straight into 39 degrees for 35 minutes. Time zero was when I brought it back to 71 degrees.
Time zero: 11.0 p.s.i
+ 1 minute: 11.3 psi
+ 2 minutes: 11.6 psi
+ 4 minutes: 11.95-12.0 psi
+ 7 minutes 12.4 psi
+ 9 minutes 12.6 psi
+ 12 minutes: 12.75 psi
+ 15 minutes 12.95 psi
So, to repeat, starting pressure at 13.0 in about 71 degree conditions. I deflated the football and filled it with a hand pump to 13.0, and tested it after 10 minutes and after 20 minutes in the same room to make sure it was holding steady at 13.0 and it was. Straight into 39 degrees for 35 minutes. Time zero was when I brought it back to 71 degrees.
Time zero: 11.0 p.s.i
+ 1 minute: 11.3 psi
+ 2 minutes: 11.6 psi
+ 4 minutes: 11.95-12.0 psi
+ 7 minutes 12.4 psi
+ 9 minutes 12.6 psi
+ 12 minutes: 12.75 psi
+ 15 minutes 12.95 psi
Hmmm. Every physicist mentioned in that article seems to think the physics are against BB.E5 Yaz said:
Edit: And yet DDB's tests show consistent 2psi changes under conditions similar to the game....
Edit 2: Although it does appear that the quotes come from a cosmologist and a guy who decided not to try to answer the question with any evidence other than his gut feel.
E5 Yaz said:
They tried, but after their first call went to voicemail, they gave up. #rayricetape
After tonight, and my little experiment, I feel pretty comfortable saying that if balls are measured indoors around 70 degrees at 13 psi and are being used in 39 degree weather, they are being played at a psi that is substantially below the 12.5 to 13.5 range. Whether my measurement of 11.0 is exactly what the formula would predict, I'm not sure. Nor do I know if this means the Patriots did or did not tamper with footballs.
But 39 degrees isn't even that cold for football. I feel pretty confident in saying that footballs are pervasively and consistently being used in NFL games that are significantly outside the 12.5 to 13.5 range, making the whole thing absurd.
But 39 degrees isn't even that cold for football. I feel pretty confident in saying that footballs are pervasively and consistently being used in NFL games that are significantly outside the 12.5 to 13.5 range, making the whole thing absurd.
This is a joke right ? Lets break down how "bad" this is going to be once the mouth breathers who are convinced they are guilty reads this article. It's almost too perfect right ?E5 Yaz said:
Lorin L. Reisner, a partner in the litigation department of the law firm Paul, Weiss, Rifkind, Wharton and Garrison, called the physics department on Monday, according to notes taken by an administrative manager.
“He would like to consult with a physicist on matters relating to gas physics,” the notes said
I mean what serious lawyer allows a leak with his name explicitly on it to the goddamn NY TImes via administrative notes on the countries latest who dun it ?
Then another non performing name grabbing nerd speculating in legal terms for some excellent yellow journalism
William Zajc, another Columbia physicist who was aware of the request by Reisner, said that he was tempted to field the questions because of all the flawed physics discussions he had seen in news media reports.
“I’m amused,” Zajc said of the query. But in the end, he said, “I didn’t do it.”
Zajc said he believed there was little chance that atmospheric effects alone could account for the discrepancies in the football pressure.
“I think it’s more likely than not that they were manipulated,” Zajc said.
And then just for good measure
The records obtained by The Times show that Reisner followed his phone call with an email to the physics department.
“Just to confirm our call, we represent the N.F.L. in connection with the investigation into the footballs used during the A.F.C. championship game and would like to discuss engaging a professor of physics to consult on matters relating to gas physics and environmental impacts on inflated footballs,” Reisner said. “Please let me know whether there is a Columbia professor who may be interested in and appropriate for this assignment.”
If I'm Kraft I see Roger the Dodger is now trying to assemble a pliant group of "experts" to win over his public mob. I also see his attorneys are complete headline sharks and seem determined to keep this going through to the Super Bowl.
I'm livid if i'm Kraft but what's the next move ?This whole scandal has been ginned up and perpetrated by very little actual information. I also can't fathom how the league can just continue to sit in NY while clearly operating publicly through the press like an overeager DA.
kartvelo said:
I'm worried. Not that the science is going to prove BB wrong - because the overwhelming scientific evidence seems to be on his side - but that they're going to leave it up to dumb luck that they end up picking a physicist who is ethically beyond reproach.
I mean, they're not exactly conducting an exhaustive search for the right guy. It seems like they called up one school and said "hey, got anyone that knows anything about this sciencey stuff? kthxbai."
Tomorrow night I'll add some moisture to see if affects psi more or less significantly and also to see if it affects the rate at which thenpsi rises or drops.
Tito's Pullover said:
They don't even need to be ethically dubious: if they had called NDT a few days ago he would have said, "Oh yeah, that's bullshit."
Takeaways from the day:
We have officially reached the information overload phase. Unless something completely new breaks, people will be zoning out on rehash.
Minds are made up. It will take something definitive to change someone's mind about how "guilty" they think the Patriots are in this.
Being "technically correct" is a fool's errand. Being right isn't going to change minds. There's magic way of presenting the facts that will sway significant numbers of public opinion. This involves science; most people following this story will skip the science, read intros and conclusions and see which agree with how they feel.
Talking heads are starting to be sick of this. Prominent anti-Patriots yakkers such as Wilbon have pulled back their fangs and discussion has moved toward the game itself.
We have officially reached the information overload phase. Unless something completely new breaks, people will be zoning out on rehash.
Minds are made up. It will take something definitive to change someone's mind about how "guilty" they think the Patriots are in this.
Being "technically correct" is a fool's errand. Being right isn't going to change minds. There's magic way of presenting the facts that will sway significant numbers of public opinion. This involves science; most people following this story will skip the science, read intros and conclusions and see which agree with how they feel.
Talking heads are starting to be sick of this. Prominent anti-Patriots yakkers such as Wilbon have pulled back their fangs and discussion has moved toward the game itself.
It's amazing that not one well-known or professional "sciencey guy" has responded by saying, "l'll run a test and let you know the results." NDT does the math wrong. Nye makes jokes about it. Zjac from Columbia says he didn't actually look into it, but "thinks" it's likely there was tampering...
It's no wonder the nation is scientifically illiterate, when scientists themselves don't even bother acting like scientists.
It's no wonder the nation is scientifically illiterate, when scientists themselves don't even bother acting like scientists.
I agree with you, Yaz, though had one last thought. No wonder Aaron Rodgers likes the balls "overinflated". In November and December, even assuming the officials are doing their jobs right, he's playing his home games with balls that are probably barely at 10 psi.
I'm guessing that most of these scientific experts are saying stuff like "little chance that atmospheric effects alone could account for the discrepancies in the football pressure" because reporters are presenting them with that 2 psi figure and asking if going from 70F to 50F could bring it about.
djbayko said:
That's so they can write up "Contrary to the Patriots' assertions, this investigation was unable to locate a single scientist who indicated a a drop of 1-2 PSI in the footballs was possible from pressure-temperature effects."
DennyDoyle'sBoil said:
Quite possible, though I think the real nub of the matter is your observation about what (doesn't) happen to the belly of the ball as its PSI drops. Yesterday I mentioned pitchers like Josh Beckett wearing those necklaces since they believe they boost performance. Any concern among QBs about a football's PSI (as opposed to feel/tackiness as BB noted) over a sizable range is similarly just mental.
So this is where i have a ton of questions:kartvelo said:
Did they ask Zjac to sign a non disclosure agreement?
If not, did they disclose the delta pressures to him? Or just verbally ballpark them?
How do we even know that the pressure the legal team was disclosing to people is even accurate?
Did they have control charts and environmental conditions of football pressures pre/post?
Do they have the sworn depositions of the referees who measured them
(the kicker here is this is a giant fucking trap if the lawyers fucked up the physics but already had sworn depositions with impossible pressure deltas).
Does Wells have a pressure recording for any other NFL game played?
I hope that Robert Kraft does not back down.
The way this case has been handeled makes me think that RK does not even need an alliance of owners at this point..
Robert Kraft owns a 2.5 billion dollar franchise that is being slandered and devalued by the direct actions of the NFL front office.
Were i him, i would be sharpening my teeth for immediately after the super bowl.
If he does this right, and i bet he will, the Patriots brand could come to stand for people that do not take shit from anyone, especially weasel rat fucks who
work though cowardly channels like leaks and misinformation marathons of epic proportions.
mauidano said:
And this is it. The Patriots are cheaters and always will be to many people regardless of the facts. There is nothing else to say and New England fans can debate it all they want but this is the trump card that ever non-Patriots fan carries in their back-pocket. Its time we make peace with this concept and move on. And if I am rooting for a bunch of cheaters, so be it. They simply cheat better than everyone else...
soxfanSJCA said:
The Pats could end up with no punishment, but the weasels at NFL HQ will tell their media servants and other teams around the league that the Pats got off on a technicality. The Krafts' franchise, BB, and TB are damaged no matter what happens. Ten Nobel Prize winners testifying for the Pats wouldn't even matter.
soxfanSJCA said:
Yeah this is the scary part. If the report takes that 2 psi figure as the delta, every scientist they ask is going to say that the atmospheric conditions alone can't explain it, because it's true. If Walt Anderson is lying about testing all the balls at 12.5 before the game to save his own ass, and a bunch of the balls were actually below that, then the Pats are well and truly fucked here.
Peak Oil Can Boyd said:
Yes, but the scientists who are saying this shit seem to be basing their conclusions on the inexact information that has been leaked through the media. Hopefully, once they are officially engaged in the investigation, they will have access to complete data - whatever exists anyways.
If I'm understanding DDB's experiment and the physics involved as I've read in this thread, it seems like under-inflated balls in cold weather games must be much more of a rule than an exception. If that's true there will be plenty of opportunities to prove that out next season. The Pats should be very attentive to the inflation level of opponent's balls in cold weather games next year...
DeJesus Built My Hotrod said:
QFT
I've been struck this past 10 days or so by the twin talking points that "Of course the Patriots cheated," but "They would have won anyway. And "Belichick continually crosses the line" with "He's the best coach in the NFL." There's probably some psycho mumbo jumbo explaining why this exists ... this addictive need to praise and punish in the same breath ... but, honestly, who the fuck cares.
Apologies if this has been brought up before, but I keep seeing references to 50 degrees outdoor temp. I recall that being the gametme temp, but on a rainy January day, it seems like that would have gone down easily to 40 or less in the dusk by halftime. has it been confirmed what the halftime temp was ?
According to this site, it hovered around the low 50's throughout the game.BimblemansLight said:
http://www.wunderground.com/history/airport/KOWD/2015/1/18/DailyHistory.html?req_city=Foxboro&req_state=MA&req_statename=Massachusetts
Remember that the game balls were wet (and probably not just wet, but somewhat waterlogged as well). Wet leather expands. Expansion drops pressure.
I'd rather see engineers assessing the football's reactions than physicists. You know, real world scientists.
Add Ben Maller of Fox Sports radio to the white list. He just did a long segment that sounded like he was reading right out of this thread. He said that those people whose whole argument is that the Colts balls were regulation at the half while the Patriots were light "should be careful not to embarrass themselves", and cited "basic math". He is the first media member I've heard point out that no one knows the initial psi of the Colt's balls. Said Spygate was bullshit. I couldn't believe my ears.
And evaporation is a cooling event. And water is a heat sink. And water couples the leather to the air bladder thermally. And water changes the speed at which heat is conducted. And water changes the ball's thermal mass. And, etc .speedracer said:
BB did the game day ball prep walk through experiment. He shared the numbers. I get that we all feel the need to know how the psi changed (How many of us forgot that the psi we toss around is relative? I feel better since someone up thread reminded me.)
Coach gave us the numbers. He said "try it yourself" and in ways we all are, even just as thought experiments. But, it turns out psi is complicated, so given time management and my limited brain capacity
I want to spend the rest of my week thinking about football rather than footballs.
I really hope I can. Time for some football central. How are we stopping that run?
The Columbia prof should be a little more careful with his statements. Columbia Trustee Emeritus Robert Kraft may have some issue with them. And if they took the gig and did the tests, to simulate football conditions would they have done them at Columbia's Robert K. Kraft Field at Wein Stadium?kartvelo said:
It took me all of 90 seconds to learn all of this (I knew Kraft was a Columbia grad, wanted to see what other connections there were). Maybe they could work a bit harder to find an "expert" not really connected to anyone.
Not in the first half. It really didn't start to rain hard until half time.speedracer said:
Another possible variable in regards to the time to warm the balls to ambient for measurement. The 12 (potentially wet) balls would have been in the closed ball bag for the trip from sideline to refs locker room. So the time to equillabrate may have been slowed by the insulation from ambient that the ball bag may have provided.
I'll go with the $2 million cost estimate if they have partners making cold calls to find expert witnesses, at $800/hr+.E5 Yaz said:
Also, it's kind of egg on the face of PW that this is in the press. They should handle this more discretely.
I'm a grad of the Columbia Engineering school and they probably would have taken this on. All the labs are there to easily complete this gig. It wasn't named this when I attended but I wanted to point out that it's now the Fu School of Engineering. How great would that Belichick press conference. "The experts at the F-U school said...."Was (Not Wasdin) said:
NortheasternPJ said:
The footballs were scuffed up though, so they would hold more water than footballs out of the box (which is what the Head Smart guys used).
Maybe they should ask Fordham University's engineering department for help?Pesky Pole said:
BroodsSexton said:
"We are tired of all the leaking, except for stories coming directly from us."
kartvelo said:
Looks like Prof. Zjac is an experimental particle physicist, which is not particularly helpful. Probably better than a theoretical particle physicist though.
Wouldn't be surprised if whatever scientific consultant the NFL employs turns out like that Simpsons episode with Stephen Jay Gould.
speedracer said:
I'm super curious to see DDB's results on this tonight. The air bladder is urethane and shouldn't expand any more once it's full. But it's possible that the leather cover is actually constricting it in which case there would be some change. Isolating that change from temperature-induced differences due to wetness could be difficult, though.