#DFG: Canceling the Noise

Is there any level of suspension that you would advise Tom to accept?


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Apr 7, 2006
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Given that the patriots talked to McNally about the "deflate...jkt" text - since they have the explanation in the rebuttal - it only follows that McNally told them something to the effect of, "Well, see, I saw JJ on TV holding that jacket and..." If that's the case then doesn't it also follow that the patriots KNOW that TV footage exists and couldn't they have synched it up, as well? That didn't dawn on anyone in the NE braintrust?

Or are we really buying the "waiting to bring the hammer down" moment? Because I'm not sure I am buying that. If this is even a little exculpatory, why not include it in their rebuttal?

Edit: typos
 

Tito's Pullover

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Seriously who the fuck writes "jkt" for jacket? It's not like that was a giant message and he needed to save characters.
 
Shoulda written "D-FL8" while he was at it.
 

notfar

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This never had a chance to a neutral arbiter because this whole thing is a cover up for the initial mistake of thinking the balls were underinflated nefariously, when they weren't. They have double downed on that every chance they have had, they can't change it now. Goodell's next plan is to reduce Brady's suspension to two games or one game and hope he doesn't sue. Part of that deal will be Brady has to shut up about this forever. Brady will take the deal because it is the best thing for the team, and that is what he cares about.
 

Ed Hillel

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Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt said:
Given that the patriots talked to McNally about the "deflate...jkt" text - since they have the explanation in the rebuttal - it only follows that McNally told them something to the effect of, "Well, see, I saw JJ on TV holding that jacket and..." If that's the case then doesn't it also follow that the patriots KNOW that TV footage exists and couldn't they have synched it up, as well? That didn't dawn on anyone in the NE braintrust?

Or are we really buying the "waiting to bring the hammer down" moment? Because I'm not sure I am buying that. If this is even a little exculpatory, why not include it in their rebuttal?

Edit: typos
I mean, that's what the text syncs up to, so you're going to have to draw your own conclusions.
 
Apr 7, 2006
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Brady is an idiot if he takes that deal. It isn't about the four games, it's about his legacy. "It's about honor! It's about respect!" Someone said that once...

Edit: spoke too soon
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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I'm sure this has been said somewhere in all these pages, so apologies for repeating, but I still find the whole bathroom thing mind blowing. If there was all these extra eyes that prevented McNally from doing his usually thing, why duck into the bathroom and try to rush through it? It was raining out - the balls are constantly being covered by or wiped down with towels. It would have been much easier to do on the sideline in this situation, more accurate and less suspicious. If he's that good at doing it so quickly, he'd have no trouble doing it under a towel.
 

kartvelo

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riboflav said:
 
What deal?
 
notfar said:
This never had a chance to a neutral arbiter because this whole thing is a cover up for the initial mistake of thinking the balls were underinflated nefariously, when they weren't. They have double downed on that every chance they have had, they can't change it now. Goodell's next plan is to reduce Brady's suspension to two games or one game and hope he doesn't sue. Part of that deal will be Brady has to shut up about this forever. Brady will take the deal because it is the best thing for the team, and that is what he cares about.
 

86spike

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Papelbon's Poutine said:
I'm sure this has been said somewhere in all these pages, so apologies for repeating, but I still find the whole bathroom thing mind blowing. If there was all these extra eyes that prevented McNally from doing his usually thing, why duck into the bathroom and try to rush through it? It was raining out - the balls are constantly being covered by or wiped down with towels. It would have been much easier to do on the sideline in this situation, more accurate and less suspicious. If he's that good at doing it so quickly, he'd have no trouble doing it under a towel.
He's not supposed to touch balls during the game. He would need to enlist others.
 
Apr 7, 2006
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notfar said:
Goodell's next plan is to reduce Brady's suspension to two games or one game and hope he doesn't sue. Part of that deal will be Brady has to shut up about this forever. Brady will take the deal because it is the best thing for the team, and that is what he cares about.
This is the deal brady would be an idiot to take.
 

Ed Hillel

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Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt said:
This is the deal brady would be an idiot to take.
Are you his legal counsel now? They may think he has a very strong chance for 0 games in court.
 

MiracleOfO2704

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CaptainLaddie said:
Rich Hill just tweeted this:
 
Rich Hill @PP_Rich_Hill
The current song-and-dance with appeals is NFLPA appeals, Goodell listens, NFLPA appeals again to the court system, courts overturn NFL.
 
Rich Hill @PP_Rich_Hill
This process has to be followed because it's in the CBA, but the NFL Bylaws give a straight shot to circumvent Goodell.
 
 
Well, no offense, but when you have a system where Rog can be judge, jury, executioner, and appellate all in one gingerific body, players need to be given a straight shot to circumvent the man.
 

RG33

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Brady is taking nothing except for Roger Goodell and the NFL to court. He and the Patriots are all in, and will accept nothing aside from complete exoneration. And that is because, as they have said all along from moment one, they have done nothing wrong here.

I am not confident that they will necessarily win and get anything retracted, but I'm supremely confident that they are not going to accept any sort of deal that isn't "We apologize to Mr. Brady for incorrectly concluding he in any way was responsible for anything against league rules" - and that ain't happening.
 

Harry Hooper

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Super Nomario said:
When you use colorful language like "no justification" and "they had to bully him," which aren't supported, you undermine your argument considerably. It's written as "Although Anderson's best recollection is that he used the Logo Gauge, he said that it is certainly possible that he used the Non-Logo Gauge." The Exponent report concludes that it is more likely the Non-Logo Gauge was used because it is truer to actual pressure and therefore was more likely to match the Colts' and Patriots' gauges (since their balls came in as expected), but they ran the results with both sets of data just to be sure and concluded that they couldn't explain the discrepancies either way. I think there are some holes to be poked in some of the assumptions, and all of this is resting on a pretty shaky foundation, statistically speaking, but I don't think they ran most of it using Non-Logo because of bias or in defiance of Anderson's statements.
 
 
Fair enough, but as just one counter-example, Anderson's recollection about never losing the ball bag in 19 years (doubtful on its face) could have readily been questioned, if Wells/NFL had wanted to.
 

Three10toLeft

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Ferm Sheller said:
So, JM wrote deflate and deflator on two separate occasions in his texts to JJ and in completely different contexts (losing weight and letting the air out of a jacket). If that's true, that's some real buzzard luck. I must have a million texts on my phone and I bet I haven't used deflate or deflator once.
 
The one thing that now comes to mind, that didn't when I first heard about "deflator" being used as a term to "lose weight"...
 
A buddy in my group of friends was using steroids and really bulked up over a short period of time. As soon as he stopped roiding it up, we noticed a pretty sharp falloff from appearance. Some of my friends joked, saying it looked like someone deflated a balloon once said steroid friend got off the juice.
 
Maybe in the "locker room" that type of talk is prevalent and whatnot. Not saying McNally was a steroid guy losing muscle, but a self deprecating term because he was such a fat ass.
 
Could be why McNally was calling himself a deflator, and makes a lot more sense given the context of seeing Jas looking 'inflated' much like McNally's own fat ass, and that he needed to lose weight and give that jacket to someone else.
Just a small anecdote.
 

OCST

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MiracleOfO2704 said:
 
Well, no offense, but when you have a system where Rog can be judge, jury, executioner, and appellate all in one gingerific body, players need to be given a straight shot to circumvent the man.
And I remember vividly from the Rice debacle that hanging on to this bit of power was the most important thing to Rog- he wants to be THE DISCIPLINE GUY

What a power tripping asshole.
 

86spike

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RGREELEY33 said:
Brady is taking nothing except for Roger Goodell and the NFL to court. He and the Patriots are all in, and will accept nothing aside from complete exoneration. And that is because, as they have said all along from moment one, they have done nothing wrong here.
I am not confident that they will necessarily win and get anything retracted, but I'm supremely confident that they are not going to accept any sort of deal that isn't "We apologize to Mr. Brady for incorrectly concluding he in any way was responsible for anything against league rules" - and that ain't happening.
And if that is not 100% true and there was a little something shady going on here or there, does Brady still sue?
 

Bergs

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FredCDobbs said:
 
What 86 Spike said.  Look man, I'm a Pats fan.  You think I want to believe or acknowledge there was ANYTHING, not matter how small, amiss here?   The case is weak as shit, the entire sting is compromised and should never have happened in the first place, and the NFL's response continues to make my jaw drop.  But when you're accused of deflating footballs, and an equipment guy refers to himself as the Deflator, that's just too much smoke for most people.  And no, I'm not going to read the whole freaking Wells report; and neither are 99% of football fans.  That doesn't mean they have no opinion on the matter.
So your basic premise is that intellectual laziness should rule the day. Perfect.
 

Ferm Sheller

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86spike said:
Jastremski? He also doesn't touch balls during gameplay.
Well OK, but they must know the ball boys. Just have them do it when they're fumbling around for balls in bag.
 

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RGREELEY33 said:
Brady is taking nothing except for Roger Goodell and the NFL to court. He and the Patriots are all in, and will accept nothing aside from complete exoneration. And that is because, as they have said all along from moment one, they have done nothing wrong here.

I am not confident that they will necessarily win and get anything retracted, but I'm supremely confident that they are not going to accept any sort of deal that isn't "We apologize to Mr. Brady for incorrectly concluding he in any way was responsible for anything against league rules" - and that ain't happening.
Favre got a $50,000 fine for non-cooperation in the sexting investigation.  I think Brady would settle for a small fine.
 
Zero games would be the hill I'd die on, though.  I want Brady under center for all 19 wins in the upcoming historic season.
 

86spike

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Ferm Sheller said:
Well OK, but they must know the ball boys. Just have them do it when they're fumbling around for balls in bag.
That brings more people into the conspiracy. The risk of discovery ratchets up big time.
 

Morgan's Magic Snowplow

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86spike said:
And if that is not 100% true and there was a little something shady going on here or there, does Brady still sue?
 
That's the million dollar question.  I guess we'll find out soon.
 
I've thought him likely innocent all along (and JJ/McNally likely up to something he didn't know about) but if he does sue my confidence in his innocence will go up significantly.
 

JeffLedbetter

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This thing has so many angles, but I can't help but think that Goodell so quickly installing himself as arbitrator of Brady's hearing on the same day the Patriots' rebuttal came out is small thinking on his part. This has turned into a chess game and he's playing checkers.
 

Doctor G

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Ed Hillel said:
The jacket is huge, it appears he's busting his balls. No idea what deflate means in that context, but it's probably something that makes no sense to anyone but them.
Lose some weight and buy a jacket that fits dorito dick.
 

kartvelo

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Ed Hillel said:
Then why would McNally be texting him to deflate them during the game?
Well, he wouldn't, would he? Which utterly destroys the "He said deflate!! GUILTY!!!" argument.
 

crystalline

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Super Nomario said:
Did you read the report? Exponent tested vigorous rubbing (page 33), subjecting the football to stresses in an attempt to simulate game action (page 32), and wetness (page 40-44).
In the rebuttal it is pointed out that Exponent did all these experiments with brand new footballs.

We don't know exactly how the Patriots prep their game balls, but we know from NFL videos that teams use brushes and rotary sanders to break in the leather. Maybe they use solvents. It may well be that game prepped balls do lose pressure when a 350 pound man falls on them.

Exponent also did not account for wet and dry bulb temperature differences (distinct from wetness effects on pressure), as far as I remember, but I could be wrong on this. In this case wetness could well explain the differences.


I agree with your overall point that none of this proves the Patriots did not tamper. But in numerical or science work, no negative can ever be proved. The only question is whether the null hypothesis can be rejected (does pressure prove the Pats tampered). The only alternative is where we are at: there is no evidence the Pats tampered. Finis.
 

Ferm Sheller

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86spike said:
That brings more people into the conspiracy. The risk of discovery ratchets up big time.
Yeah, a pimply faced 22 year old big time Pats fan. It's not like they suspected anyone was looking out for this. Taking balls into the bathroom when you're not supposed to possess them outside the ref's view is more suspicious than is having the ball boy do it while he's in "legal" possession of the balls
 
Apr 7, 2006
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Ed Hillel said:
Are you his legal counsel now? They may think he has a very strong chance for 0 games in court.
Ed, I think you misunderstood my post, where I was responding to someone positing a deal offered by Goodell. You and I are both on the same page. I don't want Brady to take whatever deal RG offers - because I agree that Brady could wind up getting the suspension thrown out on court.
 

kartvelo

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Ferm Sheller said:
Yeah, a pimply faced 22 year old big time Pats fan. It's not like they suspected anyone was looking out for this. Taking balls into the bathroom when you're not supposed to possess them outside the ref's view is more suspicious than is having the ball boy do it while he's in "legal" possession of the balls
And we still have no evidence that anything untoward happened to the balls, no evidence that TB wanted the balls below 12.5, no evidence that JJ or JM ever thought he did (let alone acted on any such belief), and on and on and on.
 

jasail

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I think the answer here is obvious. It's been apparent since the moment Brady lawyered up and was obvious today that Brady and the Pats are not stepping down from this and are fully intent on either going to courts or at least making it look that way. Roger/NFL holds all the cards. They have the report, they have the penalties, they have the power of the CBA and they have public opinion in their favor. He holds the high ground and he's not going to cede an inch to the Patriots until he has to. Like it or not, Brady/Pats are the ones that need to gain ground. It would be stupid for Roger to play it any other way and he likely has the support of the owners in this. Both camps are in for the long-haul. 
 

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Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt said:
This is the deal brady would be an idiot to take.
Exactly. Two games without Brady, vs a chance that Brady and thus the team is exonerated in court and can tell all the haters that Goodell is biased and concocted both this BS AND CamerapositioningGate. No way Brady takes a two game deal.

I think Jimmy G is going to be a bust sadly, but this team won with Cassell and started last season 2-2 with the only wins over cupcakes.

The fine doesn't matter. Kraft has already spent about $1M on lawyers and PR fighting this.

The only penalties that really matter are the first round pick and the massive PR hit to the Pats reputation.
 

DannyDarwinism

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86spike said:
Maybe the League isn't afraid of a court case because they firmly believe Jastremski and McNally are lying and want to get the under oath. 
 
As much as I'd like to believe the NFL is basing their strategy off of a fourth grader's understanding of the power of sworn testimony, absent other evidence that JJ and JM are guilty (which would've presumably been in the Wells Report to begin with) I can't imagine they'd take such a gamble. 
 

kartvelo

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DannyDarwinism said:
 
As much as I'd like to believe the NFL is basing their strategy off of a fourth grader's understanding of the power of sworn testimony, absent other evidence that JJ and JM are guilty (which would've presumably been in the Wells Report to begin with) I can't imagine they'd take such a gamble. 
True, what reason would they have had for not putting real evidence in the Wells report, when they really had none otherwise and were forced to pile dubious inferences one on top of the other?
 

Bergs

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I honestly believe TB12 will end his career over this shit before he accepts any penalty for something he hasn't done. He doesn't need the money, the fame, or the accolades, and if he goes into politics, it's all to his advantage. The Ginger Hammer could not have found a player less suited to his particular brand of bullying.

Edit: can you imagine the full page ad in the Globe if this came to pass?
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Bergs said:
I honestly believe TB12 will end his career over this shit before he accepts any penalty for something he hasn't done. He doesn't need the money, the fame, or the accolades, and if he goes into politics, it's all to his advantage. The Ginger Hammer could not have found a player less suited to his particular brand of bullying.
He's way too competitive. There's no way he retires before he's basically told to or loses his starting job. He's already said he wants to play well into his forties and that's going to be hard enough to manage.
 

Bergs

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Papelbon's Poutine said:
He's way too competitive. There's no way he retires before he's basically told to or loses his starting job. He's already said he wants to play well into his forties and that's going to be hard enough to manage.
I know, but these are exceptional circumstances. If he really is innocent (not a huge logical leap), I would think nothing is out of bounds.
 

RG33

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86spike said:
And if that is not 100% true and there was a little something shady going on here or there, does Brady still sue?
No. Which is why he is going to sue.

I mean, I know you're playing devil's advocate to everyone's posts about Brady's innocence, but Brady stated before his presser that he did nothing wrong. He stated in his presser that he did nothing wrong. He told the league he did nothing wrong. He told Wells and his investigators that he did nothing wrong. He came out after the discipline was handed down and had his agent tell the world that he did nothing wrong. If there was the least bit of "shady" going on, I honestly don't think he would have done all of this. That, coupled with the horseshit "evidence" that is the Wells Report allows me to state emphatically that I believe he is completely innocent and will fight to his last resort to prove so. I may be wrong, but I think that is highly doubtful.