#DFG: Canceling the Noise

Is there any level of suspension that you would advise Tom to accept?


  • Total voters
    208

Eddie Jurak

canderson-lite
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2002
44,475
Melrose, MA
So WTF was NFLPA thinking not bringing in a hired gun for this? Sounds like they just handed Brady a 4 game unpaid vacation.
 

dcmissle

Deflatigator
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 4, 2005
28,269
Apologies, because I know this has likely been answered already, but when do we expect to see a decision on this? Is there a scheduled date or do the judges have as much time as they want?
No deadline. They probably will be mindful of the need to get something out reasonably promptly as the offseason progresses.

If they affirm, they could issue something unpublished quite soon. If they reverse, they will probably take longer.

Timing will depend on the disposition and whether the panel chooses to issue a published decision or an unpublished order. The former would take longer, several months at least.
 

Punchado

Nippy McRaisins
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 11, 2002
2,717
Los Angeleees
So when it's done here (either way) it's done?

Like, can we hope to hear an interview with Brady after this? I assume he won't say anything if he wins, but if he loses….
 

dcmissle

Deflatigator
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 4, 2005
28,269
So when it's done here (either way) it's done?

Like, can we hope to hear an interview with Brady after this? I assume he won't say anything if he wins, but if he loses….
There is no chance the Second Circuit would rehear the appeal after the panel decision issues.

I think there is very little chance this panel would remand to Berman. Bury where you wish -- but this horse really needs to be shot for everyone's sake, and I think they know that.

I would put the odds on Supreme Court review as microscopic.

So yeah, we're probably done soon enough. Mercifully. It's time to move on one way or another.
 

bankshot1

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 12, 2003
24,651
where I was last at
How the fuck does Judge Chin come up with the compelling/overwhelming evidence of tampering bullshit?

Apologies in advance but did Brady get the only Chinese guy who sucked in math?
 

Sportsbstn

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 8, 2004
8,794
How the fuck does Judge Chin come up with the compelling/overwhelming evidence of tampering bullshit?

Apologies in advance but did Brady get the only Chinese guy who sucked in math?
He doesn't care about the math. Brady did it, his mind was made up a long time ago
 

nolasoxfan

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 11, 2004
6,930
Displaced
No, they will just let the owners take more $$ from the pool. This is exactly what the owners want - the players now have to negotiate something they never should have had to, in exchange for $$. It is sickening, frankly. Just another reason why a lot of people are likely done with the NFL in the not so distant future.
Raises hand. I’m 100% over and done with the sport once Brady retires. Done.
 

CantKeepmedown

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
2,580
Portland, ME
My son had ESPN on when I got home (I have long since stopped watching) and I got to hear Sal Pal, almost gleefully, repeating the Chin comment about there being overwhelming evidence of tampering.

I really hope, if the worst case scenario comes true, that Brady/Kraft/someone from the NEP organization unloads. What's left to lose?
 

Ed Hillel

Wants to be startin somethin
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2007
43,559
Here
Was Sal Pal reporting from the parking lot again?

Chin's comments are unfortunate on a number of different levels, though maybe he was role-playing. I'm more concerned for humanity when someone with such credentials can't accept elementary science.
 

Eddie Jurak

canderson-lite
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2002
44,475
Melrose, MA
I really hope, if the worst case scenario comes true, that Brady/Kraft/someone from the NEP organization unloads. What's left to lose?
No one is unloading. Kraft wants to keep his place in this disgusting league, so he will remain meekly silent until the next time the league concocts an excuse to punish his team severely, which he will again meekly accept. Brady has nothing to gain by going ballistic.

It was good that they won in 2015, because at this point who the fuck knows.
 

TheoShmeo

Skrub's sympathy case
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
12,890
Boston, NY
My son had ESPN on when I got home (I have long since stopped watching) and I got to hear Sal Pal, almost gleefully, repeating the Chin comment about there being overwhelming evidence of tampering.

I really hope, if the worst case scenario comes true, that Brady/Kraft/someone from the NEP organization unloads. What's left to lose?
We might get something strong from Tom or the NFLPA if Tom loses. But I don't think we'll get the level of fire and brimstone that will satisfy most fans. Even in defeat, Tom will likely want to be gracious and minimize rather than fan the fire. At this point, the most I could see Kraft doing is issuing a statement or making one that reiterates his support for Tom and belief that the result is completely unjust.

And, sadly, it's not as if an impassioned speech by anyone will have any meaningful affect on the NFL, the other owners, fans of other teams or the positively gleeful media. Pats fans will love it but that's about it.
 

Steve Dillard

wishes drew noticed him instead of sweet & sour
SoSH Member
Oct 7, 2003
5,932
Sunday afternoon at 3:30 pm quarterbacking. Brady wins if one believes the evidence of tampering was bullshit. He loses if the issue was close enough for the arbitrator to find it.

Kessler purshed that point factually to Berman, when invited to do so in the very first question, so Berman's heart and mind was sold, and he molded his decision around skepticism of everything Goodell did.

On appeal, Kessler dropped almost all discussion showing the tampering point was bs. A strategic decision, designed to insulate himself from a claim that Berman "re-judged" the facts.

In hindsight (I thought I thought this at the time, but a quick search around Dec. 7th didn't show any posts by me, so maybe a false memory), Kessler's brief was too dry and legalistic.
Even the amicus brief thought this was curious, and I was happy that the points were finally raised. However, Chin's comment that the evidence of tampering was overwhelming suggests the basic failure by Kessler to convince the panel that this was the right thing to do.

I am sure Kessler had his reasons for doing this. (Not quite second guessing Belichik for kicking overtime, as Kessler as an appellate lawyer is more an Andy Reid.) That said, the Panel's seeming skepticism about notice was about the argument that the equipment violation covered the ball tampering. There is still a chance they are unhappy about the "generally aware" charge morphing into the "involved" standard, which Clement did not really answer all that well, and could construct a decision around that.
 

Stitch01

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
18,155
Boston
Welp, sounds like our legal system is as much of a clownshow these days as our political system.

Whatever, hopefully this at least goes past when they make the schedule so the Pats don't get some sort of Pittsburgh, Denver, Arizona, Seattle opening month.
 

canderson

Mr. Brightside
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
39,430
Harrisburg, Pa.
I'm so over the NFL that if these clowns reverse the decision I'm pretty sure I'll complete give up and stop paying attention.

Great job Roger.
 

Harry Hooper

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 4, 2002
34,368
No one is unloading. Kraft wants to keep his place in this disgusting league, so he will remain meekly silent until the next time the league concocts an excuse to punish his team severely, which he will again meekly accept. Brady has nothing to gain by going ballistic.

It was good that they won in 2015, because at this point who the fuck knows.
"Severely" is an understatement. With the Pats established now as serial violators, the next penalty will involve a quantum leap in discipline.
 

Marbleheader

Moderator
Moderator
SoSH Member
Sep 27, 2004
11,726
Does that serial violators tag expire when Brady retires? Belichick retires? Kraft dies? Never?
 

Harry Hooper

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 4, 2002
34,368
Does that serial violators tag expire when Brady retires? Belichick retires? Kraft dies? Never?
Never, or at least until the team stinks long enough for the haters to stop caring, which is why (for the sake of Jonathan) Bob Kraft needed to go atomic porcupine on the NFL for this fiasco.
 
Dec 21, 2015
1,410
Welp, sounds like our legal system is as much of a clownshow these days as our political system.
Gee, seeing as we don't even have the transcript of the oral argument yet, that's not an overreaction at all. Do you have to handle your takes with oven mitts when they're this hot?
 

Hoya81

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 3, 2010
8,457
So when it's done here (either way) it's done?

Like, can we hope to hear an interview with Brady after this? I assume he won't say anything if he wins, but if he loses….
I'm not sure we'll ever hear Brady speak at length about DFG, no matter the outcome. He's already testified under oath about all the relevant parts.
 

DourDoerr

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 15, 2004
2,937
Berkeley, CA
Chin's comments are unfortunate on a number of different levels, though maybe he was role-playing. I'm more concerned for humanity when someone with such credentials can't accept elementary science.
I was surprised at first too, but then remembered a recently departed Supreme Court Justice's reported scorn for science.
 
Last edited:

allstonite

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 27, 2010
2,472
Gee, seeing as we don't even have the transcript of the oral argument yet, that's not an overreaction at all. Do you have to handle your takes with oven mitts when they're this hot?
He was referring to Chin's quote about the overwhelming evidence of tampering which has been quoted by multiple media members in the room.
 

Ed Hillel

Wants to be startin somethin
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2007
43,559
Here
Agreed, but Chin is a liberal appointee. When they're ignoring science for TMZ headlines, we're really in trouble.
 

Eddie Jurak

canderson-lite
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2002
44,475
Melrose, MA
Ok. Today's winner of the small burrowing rodent award is John Tomase, for his article "Let's stop pretending Tom Brady is completely innocent", which I am not going to read.
 

Eddie Jurak

canderson-lite
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2002
44,475
Melrose, MA
BTW, color me stunned by Kessler's comment that RR and dcmissile are currently discussing in the legal thread. While Kessler must have been frustrated with the way yesterday's arguments went... JFC! Have a goddamn filter. Remarks like that make Kessler look like he was out of his depth.
 

dhappy42

Straw Man
Oct 27, 2013
15,725
Michigan
BTW, color me stunned by Kessler's comment that RR and dcmissile are currently discussing in the legal thread. While Kessler must have been frustrated with the way yesterday's arguments went... JFC! Have a goddamn filter. Remarks like that make Kessler look like he was out of his depth.
Yes, but the remarks and questions from the judges, Parker and Chin, were pretty stunning too. They read like something you'd expect from Jets fans on an ESPN comments board.

Parker: "Anybody within 100 yards of this proceeding would have known that the cell phone issue raised the stakes to this thing. It turned it from air in a football to comprising the integrity of a proceeding that the commissioner had convened."

Kessler: "... [Wells] never asked for the phone."

Parker harping on the phone issue is mystifying. Did he even read Berman's decision or the briefs?

Chin was worse: “evidence of ball-tampering is compelling if not overwhelming.”

Compelling? Seriously? There's zero evidence of ball-tampering and every reputable, i.e. non-Exponent, scientific examination has found that the pressure drops are entirely explained by cold weather.

None of the judges even addressed the issue of fraud perpetrated by the NFL or challenged Clement when he repeated Goodell's lie about Brady's testimony.

This looks bad, very bad. I can understand, if not excuse, Kessler's frustration.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
37,055
Hingham, MA
What I especially don't understand is the following: during the Berman appeal, the NFL kept on saying that the facts of the case couldn't be argued - that the appeal was based on players' rights as related to the CBA. And yet yesterday, it seemed like the majority of discussion was related to facts. Shouldn't it have been based on process?
 

dhappy42

Straw Man
Oct 27, 2013
15,725
Michigan
Right, but remember that even circumstantial evidence can be compelling. You can convict someone of murder without direct evidence.
Okay. I'll bite. Considering that the Ideal Gas Law entirely explains the balls' psi levels, what compelling circumstantial evidence is there of tampering?

Seems to me there's much more compelling evidence of NFL bias -- disregarding Walt Anderson's memory of which gauge he used -- and even fraud -- leaking false psi numbers to the media and Exponent's photographic trickery with the needles. Not to mention Goodell lying about Brady's testimony and Clement repeating it to the court.
 

Eddie Jurak

canderson-lite
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2002
44,475
Melrose, MA
The point is not that Kessler didn't have good reason to be pissed. Only that he had nothing to gain by snarkily calling the judges out. Maybe he feels better now, having said that, but it was still a moronic thing to say.
 

PayrodsFirstClutchHit

Bob Kraft's Season Ticket Robin Hoodie
SoSH Member
Jun 29, 2006
8,319
Winterport, ME
Okay. I'll bite. Considering that the Ideal Gas Law entirely explains the balls' psi levels, what compelling circumstantial evidence is there of tampering?

Seems to me there's much more compelling evidence of NFL bias -- disregarding Walt Anderson's memory of which gauge he used -- and even fraud -- leaking false psi numbers to the media and Exponent's photographic trickery with the needles. Not to mention Goodell lying about Brady's testimony and Clement repeating it to the court.
Brady destroyed his phone! We will never know the truth!
 

lexrageorge

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2007
18,096
I have a couple of non-legal theories to some of the questions raised here (and they have to be non-legal, as IANAL):

After reading the legal thread (btw, I must once again commend the posters taking the time to explain some of the concepts around appeals, etc.), a couple things become more clear. First is that the judges are not beholden to restrict questioning to matters of law only. It appears that they are given wide latitude to ask whatever they want, and they are under no obligation to explain why. It could be (rank speculation warning) that Chin truly believes Brady is guilty as charged, and nothing will sway him. Based on that, he wants to understand the legal reason why Kessler thinks Berman's ruling should be upheld, beyond what is already in the briefs. And Chin's question may very well have been asked in context of a legal argument. We still don't have a full transcript.

As to why Chin finds the evidence compelling if not overwhelming. Go back earlier in this thread and you have nearly every attorney ballwashing Paul Weiss when it was announced that his firm would be running the NFL's investigation and would produce a report. And everyone thought Exponent was a well regarded firm when it came to performing scientific analysis of complex data. On this forum, both reputations have since been shattered utterly and completely. But this forum does not represent the legal community at large, and the fact that Exponent "did science" is more than enough for scientifically incompetent judges to be swayed.
 

dhappy42

Straw Man
Oct 27, 2013
15,725
Michigan
I wonder what Judge Berman thinks about all this.

It's one thing to have your decision overturned on a point of law. It'd be quite another to have it overturned because two appellate judges apparently don't comprehend the basic facts of the case. That said, the oral arguments may have just been noise.
 

dhappy42

Straw Man
Oct 27, 2013
15,725
Michigan
As to why Chin finds the evidence compelling if not overwhelming. Go back earlier in this thread and you have nearly every attorney ballwashing Paul Weiss when it was announced that his firm would be running the NFL's investigation and would produce a report. And everyone thought Exponent was a well regarded firm when it came to performing scientific analysis of complex data. On this forum, both reputations have since been shattered utterly and completely. But this forum does not represent the legal community at large, and the fact that Exponent "did science" is more than enough for scientifically incompetent judges to be swayed.
That's depressing. Basically, you're saying that the United States Court of Appeals for the Second Circuit is like junior high. Paul Weiss and his buddies are the "cool kids" and "doing science" is simply someone using big words like "statistical variance" and writing numbers and funny symbols on paper.
 

WayBackVazquez

white knight against high school nookie
SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2006
8,294
Los Angeles
The audio of the argument is now available, and has been picked up by a few members of the media, including Dan Hausle and Daniel Wallach. (Also Dan Mansle. Dans are very interested in this case. EDIT: Nevermind, Mansle appears to be a court clerk misreading Hausle's handwriting.)
 

dhappy42

Straw Man
Oct 27, 2013
15,725
Michigan
I respect judges, but they are human. I find it completely plausible that one of them, after a full year of constant media bombardment about the Patriots and deflategate (in NYC, no less), has kind of just made up his mind (as 95% of the US population has). You live in an echo chamber with that stuff, and since the matter won't be decided on whether or not the balls were actually deflated, Chin has no motivation to dig into it. I mean, judges read the papers and yak around the water cooler, too, but that's not the stuff that this case is being decided on.
Sure, but they all live in NY, read The New York Times and like to at least pretend to be smart. Joe Nocera's takedown of the NFL was hard to miss and pretty convincing.

True Scandal of Deflategate Lies in the N.F.L.’s Behavior
http://www.nytimes.com/2016/01/23/sports/football/nfl-ignores-ball-deflation-science-at-new-england-patriots-expense.html?_r=0

Not saying judges should rely on newspapers for their facts, but it's impossible to read that and then say "the evidence of tampering is compelling."
 

joe dokes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
30,238
Any opinion not based on a complete reading of he transcript is useless; and even then, its still only slightly more than a crapshoot. (I know some of the lawyers here have a different view).

Judges ask questions for all sorts of reasons. Sometimes they're solid reasons directly linked to the legal issues at hand that need to be answered; but sometimes they are based on misreadings of the record of a case that they might not be assigned to write, perhaps due to not diving in deep enough. In the hierarchy of "things to get done," sometimes argument takes a back seat to getting opinions out, so argument prep isn't the same for the judges as it is the lawyers. The arguments are going to happen whether the judge asks questions or not, but the law clerks working on opinions from November and December wont be there forever. It is also unlikely that the questions will unearth anything the briefs haven't. Sometimes they are trying to ask a question to persuade another judge that *his* view is wrong. Maybe its not Chin who thinks its compelling, but he thinks another judge might. He can't say, "Hey Jeff, Katzmann thinks Brady's guilty as shit, whaddya say to that nonsense?"

Whatever Chin, for example, thinks, it is likely that he hasn't shared his views on the science with the other judges before argument or had his view challenged. (By "his" I also include whatever clerk or clerks were involved). Before the day was out, one of the other judges could have tried to set him straight.
Or to the extent he said "guilt evidence is compelling" he was also thinking, "but that really doesn't matter." All of this is to say that there are so many variables that go into a judge's comments from the bench that reading into them is tough.


Going back to first principles -- the deference due arbitrators -- this is inevitably a close case. We tend to overestimate the level of smackdown by the district court because its only one judge in a zero sum game. There might be clues in the appellate transcript, and I look forward to seeing what people think, but I think the error bars are pretty wide.
 

troparra

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 3, 2007
1,921
Michigan
I know a guy who used to be a clerk magistrate (now retired) and he told me that much of the time he knew nothing of the case until he was handed the file just before it started. He wasn't a judge, of course, but he said that was typical of judges as well. Now, this guy is like 85 now, so we're talking many years ago. And I don't know what kind of judges he was talking about. It made sense to me, though, as it jibed with how Judge Judy acts on TV.

So my question is whether judges at this level come into a case knowing only a little bit, then asking questions to get more information, and then when they do have to issue a ruling, start dealing with the details. In other words, they are procrastinators like the rest of us. Is that possible?
 

dcmissle

Deflatigator
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 4, 2005
28,269
Going back to Stich's "whelp" post -- anyone know when the schedules are finalized?

I'm not jumping the gun, but resigning myself to 4 games of Jimmy G. And my hope is the League doesn't brutalize us right out of the chute.

Pretty soon, they have to decide who travels when and where, right?
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
55,298
deep inside Guido territory
Going back to Stich's "whelp" post -- anyone know when the schedules are finalized?

I'm not jumping the gun, but resigning myself to 4 games of Jimmy G. And my hope is the League doesn't brutalize us right out of the chute.

Pretty soon, they have to decide who travels when and where, right?
The schedule will usually come out in early to mid-April.
 

dcmissle

Deflatigator
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 4, 2005
28,269
There's a good chance we won't get a ruling in the next 6 weeks, especially if it's a reversal.

It's certainly not likely, but poetic justice would be Jimmy lighting it up in four games and the Pats dealing him for a first at the end of next season.
 

WayBackVazquez

white knight against high school nookie
SoSH Member
Aug 23, 2006
8,294
Los Angeles
There's a good chance we won't get a ruling in the next 6 weeks, especially if it's a reversal.
I think you said some time ago that you've had a few expedited appeals in the Second. What's your experience on decision timing in those cases versus a typical schedule?