Dion Lewis Draws Trade Interest

SoxinSeattle

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BaseballJones

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Moves that could be made...

Trade Lewis for defensive help.
Sign Foster off the practice squad.
Trade a 7th round pick to Buffalo for Anquan Boldin. (I'm sure the Bills don't want to help the Patriots out, but right now Boldin, by virtue of being retired, is giving them absolutely nothing, obviously.)

RBs take a little hit, but there's lots of quality there. Defense (hopefully) will be improved with the acquisition from the Lewis deal. Foster can play RB and even a little WR. And then Boldin is a really solid veteran, a big body who can catch in traffic. Obviously not a long-term solution, but maybe enough left in the tank to get the Pats through this year. Don't do it if Buffalo holds out for a king's ransom, but the price should be minimal.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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BB has shocked me far more but what could Lewis possibly bring?

As posted above, definitely not an impact player. I'd rather have him pull off one of those patented late-rounder for Hicks/Ayers/Van Noy type deals rather than letting Lewis go. Especially with Foster now elsewhere.
 

Stitch01

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Lewis is the third string early down back, the second or third string passing down back, the kick returner, and is a UDFA who will be on a different team next year. He's a useful cog on this years team, but if someone offers this years version of Ayers or Van Noy for Lewis, the Pats should take it.
 

Super Nomario

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Lewis is the third string early down back, the second or third string passing down back, the kick returner, and is a UDFA who will be on a different team next year. He's a useful cog on this years team, but if someone offers this years version of Ayers or Van Noy for Lewis, the Pats should take it.
Both Ayers and Van Noy costs sixth-round picks (with a seventh coming back). I'd rather trade that than Lewis, who has value as a KR and as depth. Gillislee and Burkhead are pretty unproven, too - it's not a stretch to think Lewis might be playing a more significant role down the stretch or in the playoffs.
 

Stitch01

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Whatever the slightly better version of those two players are then. If they find a front seven guy they like and think can play in the rotation and the other team wants Lewis as the return, they should do it. Yeah, he might have a bit of the Amendola of running back role where they dont think he can play full time during the season but he could play more in the playoffs (although if White's healthy his role is likely capped) but its not a luxury that's worth front seven help IMO. White is a long-term core player and they're paying two other running backs who grade out well metric wise fairly big running back money.
 

SeoulSoxFan

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Both Ayers and Van Noy costs sixth-round picks (with a seventh coming back). I'd rather trade that than Lewis, who has value as a KR and as depth. Gillislee and Burkhead are pretty unproven, too - it's not a stretch to think Lewis might be playing a more significant role down the stretch or in the playoffs.
Agree here.

With Edelman and Amendola hurt, Gronk status being a bit mysterious, I'd think Lewis -- with his experience in the NE system -- keeps stability intact, especially with Gillislee, Cooks, and Burkhead being new.

Even if Lewis is a 3rd-stringer, not sure if this team can afford to lose depth on the RB spot given the sudden lack of depth on the WR side.

P.S. As a side note, wish they had picked up Kerley to fill out the WR and KR spot. He's back with the Jets now.
 

Stitch01

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I dont really see Lewis helping with the lack of WR depth. Dorsett outsnapped him 18-6 and he'd been on the roster for like an hour. Yeah, if two guys ahead of Lewis on the depth chart get hurt he has value to the offense if he's not actually made of glass and doesnt get hurt in three games again. He has a special teams role so he'll be on the gameday roster. He's a useful 35th-40th man on the roster or w/e. Meanwhile, depth is a much bigger issue on the front 7 right now. If Hightower cant go Sunday Cassius Marsh is setting up to get about 50 snaps unless they break glass and activate Grissom. If Hightower can go he's probably going to play out of position because the DE is so thin.

Yeah, Id value Lewis more than a 7th round pick, but if someone is offering a DE that BB likes and that can play 30 snaps a game or possibly linebacker help and wants Lewis, then it makes total sense to move Lewis. Whether the right player is out there, who knows, but shifting some value from 4th string running back to the front 7 seems like a pretty clear net positive to me if the right move is out there.

If I had to bet, Id bet Kerley is either hurt or toast. He got a three year extension in March, still got cut in August (and the Niners WR depth chart is really bad), and was a healthy scratch in NY week 1
 

Super Nomario

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Whatever the slightly better version of those two players are then. If they find a front seven guy they like and think can play in the rotation and the other team wants Lewis as the return, they should do it. Yeah, he might have a bit of the Amendola of running back role where they dont think he can play full time during the season but he could play more in the playoffs (although if White's healthy his role is likely capped) but its not a luxury that's worth front seven help IMO. White is a long-term core player and they're paying two other running backs who grade out well metric wise fairly big running back money.
I don't disagree with the premise - I'd rather have a front seven contributor than Lewis, too - but I'm skeptical that he has trade value to bring back more than the kind of player the Pats could get for a late-round pick, and at that price point Lewis has more value to NE than the draft pick. The Pats got Gillislee for a mediumish contract and a fifth; I don't see Lewis fetching a third or fourth or the player equivalent.
 

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If I've learned one thing from Belichick's approach, it's that the players who get discussed around the league as possibly being traded, never get traded. It's the guys we haven't been talking about who are actually being shopped.

Let's not discount the fact that after a full training camp, at this point every player on the Pats roster is 6 weeks ahead of anyone else they might acquire in knowing the Pats system and being effective within it. The talent hurdle to clear in order to justify an acquisition is pretty high, at least to impact perceived holes in the 2017 roster as opposed to future value.
 

Stitch01

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In this case he went out and signed two running backs last offseason, played the two running backs he signed more than Lewis in game one, and gave a long term extension to the player in Lewis most likely NFL role. We never know I guess, but I dont think we're going to be surprised by which running back is traded if one is traded.

Hurdle might be high, but based on the Pats track record over the last five years it seems pretty likely they'll be looking to bring in some help to fill in perceived holes on this years roster. More likely in week 7 or w/e than week 2, and the match isnt always there, but using the early part of the season to feel out weaknesses and then looking to fill those weaknesses has been a staple of the team in recent years.
 

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...I'm skeptical that he has trade value to bring back more than the kind of player the Pats could get for a late-round pick...
Seems to me this could be the key. Sure, BB can trade Lewis for the reasons Stitch has articulated. But for the same reasons (injuries, UDFA next year, etc.) the value could be quite, quite low and a late-rounder could bring better talent.
 

Super Nomario

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In this case he went out and signed two running backs last offseason, played the two running backs he signed more than Lewis in game one, and gave a long term extension to the player in Lewis most likely NFL role. We never know I guess, but I dont think we're going to be surprised by which running back is traded if one is traded.
Based on game one, we have Gillislee in the Blount / early-down role (bulk of carries, short-yardage work, minimal role in passing game) and White in the Faulk / passing down role (plays on third down or passing situations dictated by score / situation). I don't think we can draw any conclusions about how large a role there is for a third way, a blend of the two, week to week - which is what Lewis and Burkhead provide. On Thursday, they split 16 snaps (10 for Burkhead, 6 for Lewis). Belichick has talked about how he sees Lewis as different from White. We only have to go back to the divisional round game against Houston in last year's playoffs to see a game plan decision to make Lewis, not White (or Blount) the featured player - he got 13 carries, 7 targets, and 33 offensive snaps vs the Texans (vs 8 / 0 / 27 for Blount and 0 / 1 / 12 for White). We might see playing time for these backs fluctuate based on matchup and game situation.
 

Stitch01

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Sure. He just has the smallest, least important role of the four RBs and is the most logical trade candidate of the four running backs. I dont disagree, the stars would have to align to move Lewis and there's a reasonably small subset of teams that probably have interest in Lewis over a draft pick, but I wouldnt let a counterparty asking for Lewis instead of a 6th rounder or w/e deter me if a defensive player who could make the rotation was available.

I agree with your point about splitting RB work, but I think Burkhead is clearly ahead of Lewis in terms of a blend of the two. I would be surprised if Lewis every outsnaps Burkhead this barring injury (I sort of hope Im wrong because, even though I like Burkhead, I think 2015 Lewis was like the best back the Pats have had in like a decade for the five games he was healthy so Id love to see him actually win back a bigger role in the offense. I just dont think that guys exists based on the Pats moves this offseason)

I also dont think White is locked into passing situations as much as last year or that Gillislee is locked into a non passing game role. BB talked during the offseason about how he wanted to get away from having backs that were were segmented as much as Blount/White were last year. White ran the ball 10 times Thursday, a career high, and on a decently high percentage of snaps until the Pats went behind in the game. They arent going to jam him between the tackles 20 times a game or anything, and obviously some of that was probably KC defensive strategy, but I think some of those "blend of the two" snaps you are talking about are just gonna go to White.
 

reggiecleveland

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I always assumed BB shared the RB position because they always get hurt, and he is hedging bets, saving wear and tear. Sure he rides the hot horse like Jonas Gray for a game, but he usually spreads it around.
 

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This isn't a time to be trading away offensive threats. With Edelman out and Amendola's situation very rocky, the number of trusted Brady targets isn't many. Here's hoping that Lewis gets a bigger role this week.
 

Stitch01

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YMMV, but unless Brady falls off the age cliff I feel pretty good about the offense being really good regardless of the identity of the 4th string running back. I feel much less confident that the front 7 is going to be good. There probably isnt going to be the right fit, trades are hard, but this seems like exactly the right time to be trading away a fringe player on the offense for defensive help if the right player is available.
 

soxfan121

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Sure. He just has the smallest, least important role of the four RBs and is the most logical trade candidate of the four running backs.
I don't think anyone other than McDaniels can say he has the smallest or least important role. In this offense, there may be 10 games where Lewis is the "main" option due to matchups/health/weaknesses in the opposition. Or it might be 2.

I agree with your point about splitting RB work, but I think Burkhead is clearly ahead of Lewis in terms of a blend of the two. I would be surprised if Lewis every outsnaps Burkhead this barring injury (I sort of hope Im wrong because, even though I like Burkhead, I think 2015 Lewis was like the best back the Pats have had in like a decade for the five games he was healthy so Id love to see him actually win back a bigger role in the offense. I just dont think that guys exists based on the Pats moves this offseason)
Burkhead is ahead of Lewis because of the injury risk to Lewis?

While I share your optimism about Burkhead, it is plausible he becomes a Core 4 ST player, replaces Bolden on the depth chart in terms of offensive usage, and they use Bolden's roster spot on a rotation linebacker or a defensive end. The presence of Bademosi, Other Flowers, King, Marsh, Jones... if Slater returns, Bolden is expendable. Or he's Patrick Pass 3.7, or whatever iteration we're onto now.

I also dont think White is locked into passing situations as much as last year or that Gillislee is locked into a non passing game role. BB talked during the offseason about how he wanted to get away from having backs that were were segmented as much as Blount/White were last year. White ran the ball 10 times Thursday, a career high, and on a decently high percentage of snaps until the Pats went behind in the game. They arent going to jam him between the tackles 20 times a game or anything, and obviously some of that was probably KC defensive strategy, but I think some of those "blend of the two" snaps you are talking about are just gonna go to White.
Excellent point. I wonder how many two back sets they will run with White and another back.
 

Stitch01

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I think Burkhead is ahead of Lewis because Burkhead played more than Lewis in week 1, played something that looked more like starters minutes in the preseason than Lewis, and because Burkhead is on the roster for the contract he's on the roster for (not that contract guarantees playing time or role, but rather that the Pats had Lewis on the roster and 1) signed Burkhead. I dont think he gets that contract or signs with NE if they weren't looking for/offering a role on offense that sort of crowds Lewis out 2) havent used Lewis and Burkhead in any way that indicates that has changed).

Yeah, its possible Burkhead becomes a ST guy (I dont think this is plan A based on his contract and usage) or someone gets hurt and Lewis ends up expanding his offensive role. I think its somewhat unlikely and sort of a luxury not worth passing up help on defense for if the stars align and the right role player is available.
 

Super Nomario

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I think Burkhead is ahead of Lewis because Burkhead played more than Lewis in week 1, played something that looked more like starters minutes in the preseason than Lewis, and because Burkhead is on the roster for the contract he's on the roster for (not that contract guarantees playing time or role, but rather that the Pats had Lewis on the roster and 1) signed Burkhead. I dont think he gets that contract or signs with NE if they weren't looking for/offering a role on offense that sort of crowds Lewis out 2) havent used Lewis and Burkhead in any way that indicates that has changed).

Yeah, its possible Burkhead becomes a ST guy (I dont think this is plan A based on his contract and usage) or someone gets hurt and Lewis ends up expanding his offensive role. I think its somewhat unlikely and sort of a luxury not worth passing up help on defense for if the stars align and the right role player is available.
I don't think you're wrong that Burkhead playing a significant role is plan A (though we didn't see that Week 1, with only 10 offensive snaps), but I think you way undersell the possibility that we need to go to plan B, C, D, etc. The Patriots basically kept their running backs healthy in 2016, but that's pretty unusual. In 2015 both Blount and Lewis wound up on IR and they turned to White and the barely-warm corpse of Steven Jackson, with contributions from guys like Bolden and Joey Iosefa at points. In 2014, Ridley ended on IR and they turned to Jonas Gray and Blount, picked up off the scrap heap. In 2013, Vereen got hurt Week 1 and Bolden played a major role. No one should be surprised if one of the Patriots' RB gets hurt.

I think you're underselling the performance uncertainty, too. Gillislee had 15 carries Thursday; he's only had more than that once in his career. His season-high is only 101 carries. Burkhead has 90 for his career, Lewis has only 151, and for that matter, White only has 80. Hell, the RB in the stable with the most career carries is Brandon Bolden. This is not a very established group, and it seems to me that it was assembled in part with the knowledge that it could play out in a variety of different ways. They may try running White more, they may try passing to Burkhead a lot, they may ride Gillislee hard, but we don't know how those players are going to respond to bigger workloads, in terms of endurance, durability, performance, or exposed weakness.

And at the end of the day, Burkhead's contract only means so much. Jonathan Cooper was making $2 MM and was also part of the return on the Jones trade; he never even dressed last year before he was cut. They paid Shea McClellin $3 MM / year and he couldn't earn starter snaps even after the Jamie Collins trade; they traded a bag of balls for Kyle Van Noy midseason and almost immediately elevated him over McClellin. They famously cut Leigh Bodden with a bunch of money left. They are paying David Harris basically what they are Burkhead; he played two snaps Thursday and I don't think anyone will be surprised if he's not on the team a month from now. Burkhead's deal says something about what the Patriots thought on him the day they signed him, but his performance - and injuries, gameplan, etc. - will dictate how that plays out going forward - and the error bars are pretty big.
 

streeter88

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Great game by both Lewis and Burkhead this week - 196 total yards team rushing, and many big plays. Shoutout by Brady on a windy day: "It's so important really; we've had a lot of nice weather this year, I wouldn't say today was great passing weather, with the wind conditions, and it was colder than it's been and pretty windy, but when you can hand the ball off and make big chunks of yards, it alleviates a lot."

Edit: how to change the thread title so people don't get annoyed? Was mostly commenting that I am glad he wasn't traded!