Divisional Round Weekend

doc

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
4,516
A friend of mine was at the game and said there was a sound in the stadium after Bass missed the field goal that he had never heard at a sporting event before. It was something like a collective sigh groan after an entire stadium who knew the game was over but still secretly held out a small hope
as if millions of voices suddenly cried out in terror and were suddenly silenced.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

Throw Momma From the Train
Moderator
SoSH Member
May 20, 2003
36,235
Deep inside Muppet Labs
Hard for me to understand someone who lived through 2003 and everything that led up to it taking delight in the suffering of another fan base.

A friend of mine was at the game and said there was a sound in the stadium after Bass missed the field goal that he had never heard at a sporting event before. It was something like a collective sigh groan after an entire stadium who knew the game was over but still secretly held out a small hope for a miracle watched the ball slice wide right. Nobody was even that upset. Mostly just numb. Bills fans aren't entitled; you clearly have never met one. We are whatever the word for that noise that day was. Sports are stupid and I hate that I care so much about something that doesn't matter. I'm rooting for Detroit's fans the rest of the way.
It's Bills fans that made death threats against Bass after the missed kick.

I have met Bills fans, and like all fanbases there are good ones and bad ones. My antipathy is mostly for Coach Hardo, but I've seen a lot of entitlement from Bills fans as well assuming that because they have suffered greatly over the last 20 years that it's their turn and birthright to win now, with Brady gone and the Pats on the nadir. The 47-17 game was their Super Bowl and they talked a ton of shit afterwards (no punts!), which of course is their right.

I'm rooting for the Lions too.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

Throw Momma From the Train
Moderator
SoSH Member
May 20, 2003
36,235
Deep inside Muppet Labs
IMO there's a less than 1% chance they fire him. The Pegulas seem very content with just "not sucking" with the Bills, and McDermott gives them that. He's a good coach, IMO, but they really should've canned him after 13 seconds. And once he got to stay after that, I'd be shocked if he gets let go this offseason. They need a fresh mind/voice in that locker room. I'd love an offensive minded coach, but I just don't see it happening.
I thought more about this after my question to you and have to agree. While there is precedent for firing a coach who can't get a team over the hump (Tony Dungy and John Fox come to mind), I can't see the Bills doing so, even though like you I think Hardo should be canned.

I will say that while I found his firing of Ken Dorsey kind of gross, I think it worked in that Allen was free to scramble a lot more after the OC change and they won more games. But that strategy will last only as long as Allen remains healthy.
 

Justthetippett

New Member
Aug 9, 2015
2,867
I thought more about this after my question to you and have to agree. While there is precedent for firing a coach who can't get a team over the hump (Tony Dungy and John Fox come to mind), I can't see the Bills doing so, even though like you I think Hardo should be canned.

I will say that while I found his firing of Ken Dorsey kind of gross, I think it worked in that Allen was free to scramble a lot more after the OC change and they won more games. But that strategy will last only as long as Allen remains healthy.
Brady emphasized the running game with Cook, but I think Allen's increase was more about Allen himself saving those hits for when they really mattered. Earlier in the year he was throwing the ball away more out of self-preservation. When it became crunch time, he put his body on the line in those spots to get the tough yards.

He's an amazing player, but I think he will have a Cam Newton type cliff if he can't develop his other skills more and run less.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

Throw Momma From the Train
Moderator
SoSH Member
May 20, 2003
36,235
Deep inside Muppet Labs
Brady emphasized the running game with Cook, but I think Allen's increase was more about Allen himself saving those hits for when they really mattered. Earlier in the year he was throwing the ball away more out of self-preservation. When it became crunch time, he put his body on the line in those spots to get the tough yards.

He's an amazing player, but I think he will have a Cam Newton type cliff if he can't develop his other skills more and run less.
I just wonder about his judgment at times. He doesn't slide to avoid contact as much as he could. I know he's a huge guy but at some point those hits will add up.

My recollection was that Dorsey was calling many more plays that kept Allen in the pocket, and once the change was made Allen was free to do a lot more running. In the first game against the Pats I was surprised to see him not scrambling much; in the second he ran a lot more.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
54,629
Hard for me to understand someone who lived through 2003 and everything that led up to it taking delight in the suffering of another fan base.

A friend of mine was at the game and said there was a sound in the stadium after Bass missed the field goal that he had never heard at a sporting event before. It was something like a collective sigh groan after an entire stadium who knew the game was over but still secretly held out a small hope for a miracle watched the ball slice wide right. Nobody was even that upset. Mostly just numb. Bills fans aren't entitled; you clearly have never met one. We are whatever the word for that noise that day was. Sports are stupid and I hate that I care so much about something that doesn't matter. I'm rooting for Detroit's fans the rest of the way.
The death threats are coming from inside the building.
 

Van Everyman

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2009
27,738
Newton
We probably also shouldn’t cast stones here. We have had some asshole/dangerous fans of our own.
I thought more about this after my question to you and have to agree. While there is precedent for firing a coach who can't get a team over the hump (Tony Dungy and John Fox come to mind), I can't see the Bills doing so, even though like you I think Hardo should be canned.

I will say that while I found his firing of Ken Dorsey kind of gross, I think it worked in that Allen was free to scramble a lot more after the OC change and they won more games. But that strategy will last only as long as Allen remains healthy.
Worth noting that as much of a Hardo as Hardo is (my non-SoSH Pats fan friend has called him Hardo for years BTW), every time the team has faced adversity the last few years and it looks like the wheels are about to come flying off, Hardo has gotten them to turn it around.

The Dorsey thing this year but also a team that was coming apart at the seams in 2021 after the wind game. Hamlin last year was maybe the exception but that was clearly a pretty emotional thing for all involved and it seemed more like that while they did rally in the wake they kind of ran out of gas.

Point being, while McDermott may be responsible for getting his teams into problems in the first place, he has proven an ability to get through to them when it counts. Not in the playoffs but in most cases I wonder if that’s just random variance. It’s not like his teams are laying eggs in the postseason.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

Throw Momma From the Train
Moderator
SoSH Member
May 20, 2003
36,235
Deep inside Muppet Labs
We probably also shouldn’t cast stones here. We have had some asshole/dangerous fans of our own.

Worth noting that as much of a Hardo as Hardo is (my non-SoSH Pats fan friend has called him Hardo for years BTW), every time the team has faced adversity the last few years and it looks like the wheels are about to come flying off, Hardo has gotten them to turn it around.

The Dorsey thing this year but also a team that was coming apart at the seams in 2021 after the wind game. Hamlin last year was maybe the exception but that was clearly a pretty emotional thing for all involved and it seemed more like that while they did rally in the wake they kind of ran out of gas.

Point being, while McDermott may be responsible for getting his teams into problems in the first place, he has proven an ability to get through to them when it counts. Not in the playoffs but in most cases I wonder if that’s just random variance. It’s not like his teams are laying eggs in the postseason.
But they kinda are, aren't they?

13 seconds.

Got blown out at home by the Bengals a week after barely beating Miami who had their 3rd string QB playing.

The did make it to the AFCCG in 2020 and lost to a great KC team, but again, there's the hump they couldn't overcome.

And then the year before that they lost the WC card at home to Houston,

Hardo seems to take them just so far. Maybe he can get them through adversity but very often the adversity is of his own making.
 

trekfan55

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 29, 2004
11,750
Panama
But they kinda are, aren't they?

13 seconds.

Got blown out at home by the Bengals a week after barely beating Miami who had their 3rd string QB playing.

The did make it to the AFCCG in 2020 and lost to a great KC team, but again, there's the hump they couldn't overcome.

And then the year before that they lost the WC card at home to Houston,

Hardo seems to take them just so far. Maybe he can get them through adversity but very often the adversity is of his own making.
We may never know why Allen decided to go for a TD right after the 2 minute warning twice (when at least once he had a man open underneath). This after playing it perfectly up until such 2 minute warning. Was this be design from the sidelines or not?
Tying the game with a minute and some left was not ideal either with Mahomes taking the ball next.
 

Auger34

used to be tbb
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
11,338
LOL. “Bowles is a moron so there was no risk”
None of you directly answered my post but thank you all for confirming what I have feared (and really known deep down).

Bowles is terrible. As a Bucs fan, it's a fucking shame that they performed well enough to be forced to have him bcak. I would love for Mike Vrabel to be the coach
 

loshjott

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 30, 2004
15,170
Silver Spring, MD
It's Bills fans that made death threats against Bass after the missed kick.

I have met Bills fans, and like all fanbases there are good ones and bad ones. My antipathy is mostly for Coach Hardo, but I've seen a lot of entitlement from Bills fans as well assuming that because they have suffered greatly over the last 20 years that it's their turn and birthright to win now, with Brady gone and the Pats on the nadir. The 47-17 game was their Super Bowl and they talked a ton of shit afterwards (no punts!), which of course is their right.

I'm rooting for the Lions too.
If you're as old as me it's hard to believe Wide Right I was 33 years ago.
 

cshea

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 15, 2006
36,905
306, row 14
We may never know why Allen decided to go for a TD right after the 2 minute warning twice (when at least once he had a man open underneath). This after playing it perfectly up until such 2 minute warning. Was this be design from the sidelines or not?
Tying the game with a minute and some left was not ideal either with Mahomes taking the ball next.
Not sure if it's Hardo, Brady or Allen but they needed to run the ball on 2nd and 9 coming out of the 2:00 warning. It gets the clock moving and they probably gain a few yards and either burn 40 seconds off the game clock before a 3rd and 6 or whatever or force KC into using a timeout. Either of those outcomes helps. Instead they went incomplete, incomplete and even if Bass made the FG, Mahomes had 1:40 and 2 timeouts. It was over.
 

janicks

New Member
Jul 18, 2005
14
In there are good people in the world news, a lot of people came out in support of Bass by donating to his charity of choice.

https://www.upi.com/Sports_News/NFL/2024/01/23/Bills-kicker-support-fans-cat-charity-Tyler-Bass/6351706017945/

Hundreds of donations continued to flow into the nonprofit's Venmo account Monday and Tuesday, including some from Chiefs fans. Many donated $22, a reference to Bass' jersey number (2).
The shelter told WIVB 4 Buffalo that it received more than $25,000 in donations on Monday.
 

Al Zarilla

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 8, 2005
60,299
San Andreas Fault
In there are good people in the world news, a lot of people came out in support of Bass by donating to his charity of choice.

https://www.upi.com/Sports_News/NFL/2024/01/23/Bills-kicker-support-fans-cat-charity-Tyler-Bass/6351706017945/

Hundreds of donations continued to flow into the nonprofit's Venmo account Monday and Tuesday, including some from Chiefs fans. Many donated $22, a reference to Bass' jersey number (2).
The shelter told WIVB 4 Buffalo that it received more than $25,000 in donations on Monday.
That article was all sympathetic for Bass and informative about his fund to save cats, but it did get in a “wide right” mention.
 

Marciano490

Urological Expert
SoSH Member
Nov 4, 2007
62,976
A dog guy would’ve hit that kick, knowing no matter what his pup would love him when he got home. Having a fickle cat probably caused him to miss.
 

johnmd20

mad dog
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 30, 2003
62,390
New York City
A dog guy would’ve hit that kick, knowing no matter what his pup would love him when he got home. Having a fickle cat probably caused him to miss.
This is good content.

Just picturing Bass thinking about his cat before the kick, rattled, nervous, worried. And then whoosh, a slice with the wind for the ages.
 

AB in DC

OG Football Writing
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2002
14,499
Springfield, VA
Has anyone seen an estimate of what the win probability would have been if Bass had made the FG? I'm guessing at most 25%, given the likelihood of either a Mahomes game-winning drive, or OT being 50-50 at best (and probably less than that given how much KC dominated on a per-play basis)
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
38,900
Hingham, MA
Has anyone seen an estimate of what the win probability would have been if Bass had made the FG? I'm guessing at most 25%, given the likelihood of either a Mahomes game-winning drive, or OT being 50-50 at best (and probably less than that given how much KC dominated on a per-play basis)
The ESPN gamecast has the Chiefs at 68.5% prior to the field goal attempt (or the Bills at 31.5%). Obviously that bakes in a chance of the missed field goal. So assuming a make, it probably would have been about 65/35?
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
54,629
Has anyone seen an estimate of what the win probability would have been if Bass had made the FG? I'm guessing at most 25%, given the likelihood of either a Mahomes game-winning drive, or OT being 50-50 at best (and probably less than that given how much KC dominated on a per-play basis)
The win probability isn't based on the fact that the Chiefs would have had Mahomes. It's based on historical percentages.

Based on this calculator: Win Probability Calculator | Pro-Football-Reference.com assuming a touchback, I have it at 57% for KC, so @tims4wins is pretty close.
 

TFisNEXT

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 21, 2005
12,615
The ESPN gamecast has the Chiefs at 68.5% prior to the field goal attempt (or the Bills at 31.5%). Obviously that bakes in a chance of the missed field goal. So assuming a make, it probably would have been about 65/35?
The win probability isn't based on the fact that the Chiefs would have had Mahomes. It's based on historical percentages.

Based on this calculator: Win Probability Calculator | Pro-Football-Reference.com assuming a touchback, I have it at 57% for KC, so @tims4wins is pretty close.
It shows how devastating it was for Buffalo not to continue to move the chains....I'm guessing BUF would have actually turned into the favorite to win the game if they got another first down since they could run it down to almost nothing if they had to settle for a FG and of course, if they score a TD, they're defending a 4 point lead with not much time left. A tall task even for Mahomes.

Allen missed a wide open Diggs underneath for an almost-certain first down on 2nd and 9....at the very least it's 3rd and short.
 

tims4wins

PN23's replacement
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
38,900
Hingham, MA
It shows how devastating it was for Buffalo not to continue to move the chains....I'm guessing BUF would have actually turned into the favorite to win the game if they got another first down since they could run it down to almost nothing if they had to settle for a FG and of course, if they score a TD, they're defending a 4 point lead with not much time left. A tall task even for Mahomes.

Allen missed a wide open Diggs underneath for an almost-certain first down on 2nd and 9....at the very least it's 3rd and short.
It nearly happened. After Buffalo completed the 3rd and 4 from the 34 to get to the KC 27, they were up to 48.5%. So, yes, agreed, another first down and they would have crossed 50%.

If you go here, it has the win probability for every play in the game. It's a cool feature.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/game/_/gameId/401547758
 

TFisNEXT

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 21, 2005
12,615
It nearly happened. After Buffalo completed the 3rd and 4 from the 34 to get to the KC 27, they were up to 48.5%. So, yes, agreed, another first down and they would have crossed 50%.

If you go here, it has the win probability for every play in the game. It's a cool feature.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/game/_/gameId/401547758
Nice....yeah that's brutal. So many "narratives" are decided by one or two plays from that game. If Buffalo wins, it changes the entire offseason narrative for each team, and it really doesn't have anything to do with how inherently talented each QB is.