50%. I think the question is more like, Where will Scherzer choose to go?
rather than Which team will acquire him?
That’s hard to guess at. I can imagine Scherzer the person (and his fairly outspoken wife) preferring a city like Boston over Tampa for cultural reasons, with a better chance to build his legacy and very strong HoF case. Hopefully that’s true of Houston too. It’s hard to rule out the Dodgers with these sorts of things, but I’m not sure they can extend Scherzer and re-sign Kershaw or Seager while not exceeding the tax a third year (pending new CBT). [Edit: Moot if this west coast stuff is true.]
There’s a good chance Scherzer costs less
in prospects than frontline guys like Márquez, Castillo and Alcantara because of his age and salary, and because he’s able to influence where he goes. It seems logical that he’d only approve a trade somewhere if he can envision signing an extension there.
Getting a short-window ace in hand for 2-3 years at the cost of mostly money
helps our offseason considerably. We won’t have to wait on the Klubers or Odorizzis or Mortons or Gausmans to sign before we can proceed with our roster-building, and it frees up more of our prospects for trades.
I voted no chance because it doesn't look like Bloom and ownership are ready to go over the limit this year. It might be more appropriate to go over the limit for 2-3 seasons in a row when we've opened up a contending window. I'm still not sure whether we're getting a lot of over performance (Hernandez, entire bullpen) which won't be repeated next year or whether what we have is legit and therefore we're in a contending window right now (if yes, go over the limit).
I don’t get this. There was a lot of stuff said to temper expectations last winter but our contending window is now. Our four best position players have contracts guaranteed through this season (JDM), two through next season (Bogaerts and Hernandez) and 2023 (Devers). Our best pitchers (Rodríguez and Eovaldi) are under contracts expiring this season and next, and our notional ace (Sale) is a shaky bet to remain an ace as he nears 35. There’s a flood of prospects on the way, but they’re no lock to be immediately good, and we’ll lose some if we don’t consolidate.
Meanwhile, the Yankees suck. I think we’re underestimating the crisis they’re in. Their farm system, ranked #20 or so at the start of the year, is headed by a Rookie League outfielder with a 2025 ETA and a 5’ 9” starter who took a major step back this year. The Rays will be good if financially constrained and the Jays’ sour luck might’ve blown their chance this year.