Dobson to IR
- Thread starter jsinger121
- Start date
well, no need to waive anyobody to activate Chandler (either this week or next) so that's good. Of course if Edleman is limited they might need a body at WR
steveluck7 said:
Chandler was not on short term IR. He was already on the active roster. This opens room for Silga or another receiver (Boyce?)
jsinger121 said:
Well, he was a bit of a reach (most had him 3-5th round), so I think it's more a case of him just not working out. I think the bust label comes with a bit of hype not being fulfilled. A couple people here were questioning at the time why Keenan Allen and Markus Wheaton weren't targeted...and that was a pretty good question.
LaFell has two more years on his deal. As long as he is here and healthy he will be more then adequate as the WR that can work outside the numbers for the rest of Brady's 'usefulness' to this team. I question how much higher Dobson's ceiling actually is/was vs. what LaFell now provides. I guess it would be good to have better depth behind LaFell but second round picks don't work out most of the time anyway.
Dobson was the 59th player drafted in 2013, Terrance Williams was the next WR drafted at # 74, Keenan Allen was next at #76. Dobson's career 40 rec for 557 yards, Williams 74 for 1218, and Allen 143 for 1808. Yikes, he looked OK before the foot injury last year.
Allen is really good and obviously would have been a better pick than Dobson. But I don't think Williams would start over LaFell either. Markus Wheaton, mentioned upthread, has just 10 more receiving yards for his career than Dobson, and is having a year similar to Dobson's 2013. Other high picks like Austin, Patterson, and Justin Hunter haven't panned out so far, and Robert Woods looks pretty mediocre. So far the only WR in the class who look like keepers are Allen and Nuke Hopkins, and maybe Kenny Stills. Drafting WR is hard.ShaneTrot said:
It is hard, and harder for the Pats than many others. Lots of dry holes. This not an area of organizational strength relatively speaking.
Too bad because he showed some early flashes. Add injury and that gets you on the rocket sled out of here. Maybe one last chance here for him?
Too bad because he showed some early flashes. Add injury and that gets you on the rocket sled out of here. Maybe one last chance here for him?
This is a bummer for Dobson, I felt this was his year to make an impact to stay on the roster and injuries have destroyed that opportunity when his clear path presented itself.
I've always wondered if the Patriots placed too much value on route running when reviewing college game tapes. With the exception of Thompkins(who I'll admit to thinking was going to be really good) my recollection is that most the receivers drafted by the Patriots were known for their precise route running. I'll try to dig out draft reports on WR's drafted(and edit/supplement this post) to see if my memory is correct on this or if it is as correct as my evaluation of Thompkins becoming a serious down field threat for the next decade. It's always been striking to me the amount of receivers we've missed on and curiosity has led me to a personal belief that BB's evaluation of defensive players for their ability to "do their job" and stay in proper technique/position leads him on the WR side(and DB frankly) too possibly over-emphasize the importance of route precision/technique over raw skills.
Interesting Read - Patriots WR Case Study (2012)
2014 - Jeremy Gallon
2013 – Aaron Dobson & Josh Boyce
2012(rd7) – Jeremy Ebert
2010 – Taylor Price
2009 – Brandon Tate & Julian Edelman(rd7 home-run)
2008 – Matt Slater
2006 – Chad Jackson
2004 – P.K. Sam
2003 – Bethel Johnson
2002 – Deion Branch, David Givens
After - Edit, some hits to my theory mostly smoke, I'll bottle that one up and put it back on the shelf.
I've always wondered if the Patriots placed too much value on route running when reviewing college game tapes. With the exception of Thompkins(who I'll admit to thinking was going to be really good) my recollection is that most the receivers drafted by the Patriots were known for their precise route running. I'll try to dig out draft reports on WR's drafted(and edit/supplement this post) to see if my memory is correct on this or if it is as correct as my evaluation of Thompkins becoming a serious down field threat for the next decade. It's always been striking to me the amount of receivers we've missed on and curiosity has led me to a personal belief that BB's evaluation of defensive players for their ability to "do their job" and stay in proper technique/position leads him on the WR side(and DB frankly) too possibly over-emphasize the importance of route precision/technique over raw skills.
Interesting Read - Patriots WR Case Study (2012)
2014 - Jeremy Gallon
2013 – Aaron Dobson & Josh Boyce
2012(rd7) – Jeremy Ebert
2010 – Taylor Price
2009 – Brandon Tate & Julian Edelman(rd7 home-run)
2008 – Matt Slater
2006 – Chad Jackson
2004 – P.K. Sam
2003 – Bethel Johnson
2002 – Deion Branch, David Givens
After - Edit, some hits to my theory mostly smoke, I'll bottle that one up and put it back on the shelf.
Yeah I think its still to early to write him off. Major disappointment this year obviously, with LaFell cushioning that blow. He wasn't really going to have a role on this years team as it played out so IRng him was sort of obvious. Amendola is probably not on the team next year, so there's a role for him to fight for if he's healthy. Next camp is make or break for him, but his odds are still higher than some of the other recent Pats in that third year spot (Bequette, Dowling)
This is disappointing but I don't think he's a bust. He had a good rookie season - the best rookie WR season under BB - and only failed after the foot injury. He needs to get healthy and have a strong offseason, but there's still a chance.
I remember him being a small reach but I don't remember him being a 5th round type. IIRC most sites had him as a third rounder.
How do you figure that?
Maybe Stills? Yeah OK buddy.
mt8thsw9th said:
I remember him being a small reach but I don't remember him being a 5th round type. IIRC most sites had him as a third rounder.
H78 said:
How do you figure that?
Super Nomario said:
Maybe Stills? Yeah OK buddy.
Part of it is a lack of investment - they're the only team in the NFL that hasn't used a first on a WR since 2000.dcmissle said:
I think the opposite, actually. The Patriots have tended to draft guys with great raw skills who weren't necessarily technicians. Boyce, Taylor Price, Brandon Tate, and Bethel Johnson were all speedsters with unrefined receiving skills. Dobson has size and decent speed but wasn't a super-productive college player. Chad Jackson was a good blend of production and measurables but played in more of a gimmicky offense. I'd say of the earlyish picks only Deion Branch (aka by far the best receiver the Pats have drafted) fits your description.Valek123 said:
Here's a start from Reiss, written > two years ago:
http://espn.go.com/boston/nfl/story/_/id/7613327/nfl-draft-why-do-new-england-patriots-miss-drafting-wide-receivers
Do I have to document the FAs brought in here who obviously had no clue?
I think it's generally hard, as the article above notes. And it seems to me that the Pats have a relatively worse time of it, though as noted above they have not committed first rounder picks to the position.
http://espn.go.com/boston/nfl/story/_/id/7613327/nfl-draft-why-do-new-england-patriots-miss-drafting-wide-receivers
Do I have to document the FAs brought in here who obviously had no clue?
I think it's generally hard, as the article above notes. And it seems to me that the Pats have a relatively worse time of it, though as noted above they have not committed first rounder picks to the position.
I certinaly think they will stick with him to see what he can become i'm hoping (for his sake) that the injury isn't serous and the IR is just a matter of timing, etc. The foot injury last year cost him, essentially, the entire offseason so if this is something substantial with his hamstring and he misses significant offseason program time, he may just find himself too far behind others to really contribute.dcmissle said:
Super Nomario said:
A while back I pulled the data from football reference and according to them Carolina hasnt either.
The lack of a 1st round pick also needs some context because there are also 14 teams that have only invested in just 1 1st round receiver going back to 2000. This is kind of similar to the Draft Resources thread I started a while back where I thought we should have used more resources on lineman but at the end of the day we needed use 1 more pick in the first 3 rounds to get to the 'league average' in Oline draft resources.
On the WR draft resource issue for the past 14 years:
- 1st Round: League as a whole has selected 55 WRs which represents 12% of the 1st round picks Bill has used 0% of his picks on 1st round WRs.
- 2nd round: League as a whole has selected 60 WRs [SIZE=13.63636302948px]which represents [/SIZE]13% of all 2nd round picks Bill has selected 4 2nd round WRs out of 20 2nd round picks which represents 20% of his resources.
- Combining 1st & 2nd Round: 115 WRs represents ~13% of draft resources Bill used 4 of his 33 picks which represents 12% of his resources
[tablegrid= WR ]
Now if we want to drill down even further, we can look at where these WRs are drafted in the 1st round and 28 are taken before pick #18 while Bill has had only made 4 picks below 18 over the last 14 years which kind of adds some context.
[tablegrid= WR Draft Position ]
Dobson was hurt all offseason, missed minicamp, and was clearly behind starting the preseason. Last season, he was starting to put together some nice games when he got hurt. Dobson doesn't really cost the team anything to have on the roster next year. So he will get a chance to make the club again in training camp. He is 6'3" after all.
They took Kelvin Benjamin in the first this year.wutang112878 said:
wutang112878 said:
I don't think lumping together firsts and seconds makes sense, as about 2/3 of first-round WR hit and only about 1/3 of second-rounders do.
I think if you ran expected value for WR at various spots in the draft, you'd find the Patriots underperformed the amount of draft stock used, but not by a statistically significant amount (i.e., one that suggests they're worse than average at evaluating WR talent).
dcmissle said:
There it is again. Source?
wutang has done an admirable job proving they spend resources at relatively the same rate. It is this assumption that remains problematic and, IMO, "seems to me" isn't gonna cut it. Either we need the data or we need to acknowledge we don't know if the Pats are, indeed "relatively worse".
I literally think its impossible to determine from the outside with any certainty if a team is good or bad at drafting at a specific position. Its like a juiced up version of trying to prove that an specific active investor is beating the market, I'm pretty sure that good drafters and bad drafters at positions exist, but good luck figuring it out based on like five to ten picks.
Super Nomario said:
Gotcha, I only have up to the 2013 draft.
I dont think the 1st round numbers are that good. Here are the 1st and 2nd round WRs and I considered them a 'hit' if the average more than 2 receptions a game. Then I marked some guys as Misses who didnt stick around long like Mike Williams, Matt Jones, Charles Rogers, etc My criteria could certainly use some improvements no doubt.
On the whole its:
- 1st Round: 30 hits out of 55 picks = 55%
- 2nd Round: 19 hits out of 60 picks = 32%
If we split the 1st round into <17 and >=17, how many guys would you really consider worthwhile uses of a 1st rounder. My list would be Patterson, Roddy White, Reggie Wayne, Dez Bryant, Demaryius Thomas and Percy Harvin because other than those guys I'm much more confident that Bill could find a player at another position in picks 17+ who would have more impact to the team than the remaining 'hits'
My tables are below
Hits Round 1
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[tablegrid= Hits Round 1 ]Year Rnd Pick Tm Player G Played Rec Yds TD NFL Games Since Drafted % of Games Rec Per Game 2007 1 2 DET Calvin Johnson 110 593 9669 68 116 95% 5.4 2004 1 3 ARI Larry Fitzgerald 159 856 11474 87 164 97% 5.4 2003 1 3 HOU Andre Johnson 158 949 12923 61 180 88% 6.0 2005 1 3 CLE Braylon Edwards 112 359 5522 40 148 76% 3.2 2011 1 4 CIN A.J. Green 50 272 4066 30 52 96% 5.4 2011 1 6 ATL Julio Jones 38 203 3184 23 52 73% 5.3 2009 1 7 OAK Darrius Heyward-Bey 76 169 2380 12 84 90% 2.2 2004 1 7 DET Roy Williams 115 393 5715 44 164 70% 3.4 2013 1 8 STL Tavon Austin 15 43 452 4 20 75% 2.9 2000 1 8 PIT Plaxico Burress 148 553 8499 64 228 65% 3.7 2009 1 10 SFO Michael Crabtree 67 303 3859 24 84 80% 4.5 2012 1 13 ARI Michael Floyd 35 121 1855 7 36 97% 3.5 2004 1 13 BUF Lee Evans 118 381 6008 43 164 72% 3.2 2002 1 13 NOR Donte' Stallworth 115 321 4837 35 196 59% 2.8 2001 1 16 NYJ Santana Moss 187 722 10167 66 212 88% 3.9 2003 1 17 ARI Bryant Johnson 139 314 3938 16 180 77% 2.3 2009 1 19 PHI Jeremy Maclin 63 279 3817 29 84 75% 4.4 2012 1 20 TEN Kendall Wright 35 177 1881 7 36 97% 5.1 2010 1 22 DEN Demaryius Thomas 56 253 3839 31 68 82% 4.5 2009 1 22 MIN Percy Harvin 58 296 3425 20 84 69% 5.1 2007 1 23 KAN Dwayne Bowe 106 483 6554 44 116 91% 4.6 2010 1 24 DAL Dez Bryant 63 316 4395 43 68 93% 5.0 2006 1 25 PIT Santonio Holmes 107 387 6013 36 132 81% 3.6 2013 1 27 HOU DeAndre Hopkins 20 70 1093 5 20 100% 3.5 2005 1 27 ATL Roddy White 144 699 9623 57 148 97% 4.9 2013 1 29 MIN Cordarrelle Patterson 20 58 650 4 20 100% 2.9 2009 1 29 NYG Hakeem Nicks 74 323 4716 29 84 88% 4.4 2004 1 29 ATL Michael Jenkins 130 354 4427 25 164 79% 2.7 2001 1 30 IND Reggie Wayne 200 1029 13873 81 212 94% 5.1 2009 1 30 TEN Kenny Britt 60 163 2536 19 84 71% 2.7
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[tablegrid= Hits Round 1 ]
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Hit Round 2
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[tablegrid= Hit Round 2 ]Year Rnd Pick Tm Player G Played Rec Yds TD NFL Games Since Drafted % of Games Rec Per Game 2002 2 33 HOU Jabar Gaffney 158 447 5690 24 196 81% 2.8 2008 2 36 GNB Jordy Nelson 93 335 5049 39 100 93% 3.6 2010 2 36 KAN Dexter McCluster 62 176 1541 5 68 91% 2.8 2001 2 36 CIN Chad Johnson 166 766 11059 67 212 78% 4.6 2007 2 44 MIN Sidney Rice 81 243 3592 30 116 70% 3.0 2012 2 45 CHI Alshon Jeffery 30 133 2050 11 36 83% 4.4 2002 2 48 SDG Reche Caldwell 71 152 1851 11 196 36% 2.1 2008 2 49 PHI DeSean Jackson 91 371 6324 33 100 91% 4.1 2007 2 51 NYG Steve Smith 64 245 2641 12 116 55% 3.8 2006 2 52 GNB Greg Jennings 115 508 7545 58 132 87% 4.4 2001 2 52 MIA Chris Chambers 153 540 7648 58 212 72% 3.5 2003 2 54 ARI Anquan Boldin 160 878 11575 65 180 89% 5.5 2011 2 58 BAL Torrey Smith 52 172 2962 20 52 100% 3.3 2011 2 59 CLE Greg Little 48 155 1821 8 52 92% 3.2 2010 2 60 SEA Golden Tate 62 189 2512 15 68 91% 3.0 2005 2 61 SDG Vincent Jackson 127 435 7496 54 148 86% 3.4 2012 2 63 NYG Rueben Randle 36 79 1065 10 36 100% 2.2 2011 2 64 GNB Randall Cobb 40 157 2001 18 52 77% 3.9 2002 2 65 NWE Deion Branch 140 518 6644 39 196 71% 3.7
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[tablegrid= Hit Round 2 ]
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Miss Round 1
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[tablegrid= Miss Round 1 ]Year Rnd Pick Tm Player G Played Rec Yds TD NFL Games Since Drafted % of Games Rec Per Game 2003 1 2 DET Charles Rogers 15 36 440 4 180 8% 2.4 2000 1 4 CIN Peter Warrick 79 275 2991 18 228 35% 3.5 2012 1 5 JAX Justin Blackmon 20 93 1280 6 36 56% 4.7 2005 1 7 MIN Troy Williamson 49 87 1131 4 148 33% 1.8 2001 1 8 CHI David Terrell 54 128 1602 9 212 25% 2.4 2007 1 9 MIA Ted Ginn 107 200 2641 11 116 92% 1.9 2004 1 9 JAX Reggie Williams 79 189 2322 18 164 48% 2.4 2001 1 9 SEA Koren Robinson 96 294 4244 16 212 45% 3.1 2000 1 10 BAL Travis Taylor 101 312 4017 22 228 44% 3.1 2005 1 10 DET Mike Williams 56 127 1526 5 148 38% 2.3 2004 1 15 TAM Michael Clayton 95 223 2955 10 164 58% 2.3 2001 1 15 WAS Rod Gardner 90 242 3165 23 212 42% 2.7 2002 1 19 DEN Ashley Lelie 107 217 3749 15 196 55% 2.0 2002 1 20 GNB Javon Walker 83 267 4011 31 196 42% 3.2 2005 1 21 JAX Matt Jones 54 166 2153 15 148 36% 3.1 2000 1 21 KAN Sylvester Morris 15 48 678 3 228 7% 3.2 2005 1 22 BAL Mark Clayton 83 260 3448 14 148 56% 3.1 2001 1 25 PHI Freddie Mitchell 63 90 1263 5 212 30% 1.4 2011 1 26 KAN Jonathan Baldwin 33 44 607 2 52 63% 1.3 2007 1 27 NOR Robert Meachem 96 175 2860 27 116 83% 1.8 2000 1 29 JAX R. Jay Soward 13 14 154 1 228 6% 1.1 2012 1 30 SFO A.J. Jenkins 23 12 146 0 36 64% 0.5 2007 1 30 SDG Craig Davis 26 51 558 2 116 22% 2.0 2004 1 31 SFO Rashaun Woods 14 7 160 1 164 9% 0.5 2000 2 32 CLE Dennis Northcutt 144 399 4941 18 228 63% 2.8 2007 1 32 IND Anthony Gonzalez 40 99 1307 7 116 34% 2.5
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[tablegrid= Miss Round 1 ]
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Miss Round 2
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[tablegrid= Miss Round 2 ]Year Rnd Pick Tm Player G Played Rec Yds TD NFL Games Since Drafted % of Games Rec Per Game 2012 2 33 STL Brian Quick 34 45 693 5 36 94% 1.3 2008 2 33 STL Donnie Avery 75 217 2841 14 100 75% 2.9 2001 2 33 CLE Quincy Morgan 86 164 2466 17 212 41% 1.9 2013 2 34 TEN Justin Hunter 18 27 492 4 20 90% 1.5 2008 2 34 WAS Devin Thomas 55 43 482 3 100 55% 0.8 2005 2 35 PHI Reggie Brown 72 177 2574 17 148 49% 2.5 2002 2 36 BUF Josh Reed 115 311 3575 10 196 59% 2.7 2009 2 36 CLE Brian Robiskie 38 43 485 4 84 45% 1.1 2000 2 36 PHI Todd Pinkston 78 184 2816 14 228 34% 2.4 2006 2 36 NWE Chad Jackson 18 14 171 3 132 14% 0.8 2010 2 39 TAM Arrelious Benn 37 59 862 5 68 54% 1.6 2005 2 39 CHI Mark Bradley 57 92 1283 9 148 39% 1.6 2013 2 41 BUF Robert Woods 18 51 706 3 20 90% 2.8 2001 2 41 GNB Robert Ferguson 83 151 1993 13 212 39% 1.8 2008 2 41 BUF James Hardy 16 10 96 2 100 16% 0.6 2008 2 42 DEN Eddie Royal 86 293 3208 22 100 86% 3.4 2012 2 43 NYJ Stephen Hill 23 45 594 4 36 64% 2.0 2011 2 44 DET Titus Young 26 81 990 10 52 50% 3.1 2003 2 44 WAS Taylor Jacobs 56 37 384 2 180 31% 0.7 2006 2 44 NYG Sinorice Moss 37 39 421 3 132 28% 1.1 2003 2 45 NWE Bethel Johnson 50 39 606 4 180 28% 0.8 2007 2 45 CAR Dwayne Jarrett 32 35 428 1 116 28% 1.1 2008 2 46 CIN Jerome Simpson 57 145 2004 8 100 57% 2.5 2002 2 46 NYG Tim Carter 71 81 1090 4 196 36% 1.1 2002 2 47 CLE Andre' Davis 104 156 2470 17 196 53% 1.5 2000 2 47 OAK Jerry Porter 115 295 4120 31 228 50% 2.6 2004 2 50 NOR Devery Henderson 123 245 4377 20 164 75% 2.0 2009 2 50 CLE Mohamed Massaquoi 54 118 1745 7 84 64% 2.2 2008 2 51 WAS Malcolm Kelly 21 28 365 0 100 21% 1.3 2008 2 53 PIT Limas Sweed 20 7 69 0 100 20% 0.4 2012 2 54 DET Ryan Broyles 17 31 416 2 36 47% 1.8 2004 2 54 DEN Darius Watts 22 33 407 1 164 13% 1.5 2005 2 55 BUF Roscoe Parrish 90 134 1502 7 148 61% 1.5 2008 2 58 TAM Dexter Jackson 7 100 7% - 2005 2 58 GNB Terrence Murphy 3 5 36 0 148 2% 1.7 2013 2 59 NWE Aaron Dobson 13 38 532 4 20 65% 2.9 2003 2 60 TEN Tyrone Calico 27 42 501 4 180 15% 1.6 2002 2 62 PIT Antwaan Randle El 143 370 4467 15 196 73% 2.6 2004 2 62 CAR Keary Colbert 75 130 1629 8 164 46% 1.7 2002 2 63 DAL Antonio Bryant 106 372 5685 30 196 54% 3.5
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[tablegrid= Miss Round 2 ]
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I would definitely quibble with some of your categorizations, specifically that focusing on receptions overrates high-volume, low-production guys like McCluster, Patterson, and Austin, but the overall point stands: first-rounders definitely have a higher success rate.wutang112878 said:
And Patterson hasn't really done anything yet, either. I'm not arguing that the Patriots should have used first-rounders on WR, just that they didn't, and that needs to be factored in when evaluating their results drafting at the position.wutang112878 said:
wutang112878 said:
You might want to think twice about him, given that he's basically been benched as of late.
Super Nomario said:
Maybe I misunderstood your original point. I thought you were suggesting that the Pats should use a 1st on a WR, but are you just saying that considering they havent used a 1st on a WR the results should be looked at differently?
This gets into a chicken/egg debate but do you think they dont spend the resources because they think they are bad evaluating the position? The only hits they have had have been Branch and then Edelman and Givens who I dont think they would consider great evaluations because if they knew what those guys would have been they would have drafted them much earlier. I really wouldnt be surprised if Bill was so reluctant to use a 1st on a WR because he just thought he would basically be throwing darts at a board.
Rico Guapo said:
Totally valid, I didnt put too much time and effort into my list, just trying to get it roughly right.
Yes, I'm not suggesting that they use a first on a WR. I'm not not suggesting it, either, I'm just talking about evaluating the results.wutang112878 said:
I don't think so. As you noted above, they've used seconds, including a high second in the case of Chad Jackson. I wouldn't be surprised if Belichick is aware of the general risk factors around taking WRs late in the first (as you note, there's a dropoff after 18 or so) and feels other positions are better or safer bets at that point. I wouldn't be surprised if he generally places less importance on skill players or more importance on other positions. I wouldn't be surprised if he thinks having Brady means he doesn't need to invest as much in WR. I would be very surprised if he's avoiding WR because he thinks he personally (or his staff) can't evaluate them.wutang112878 said:
I don't think we can throw out Edelman and Givens, and if you do throw out all the late-rounders you're reducing what's already a small sample to a set that's so small it's basically useless.
Generally speaking, I think this (and, frankly, pretty much all draft analysis) is reading too much into tiny samples. The Patriots have used 6 picks in the second or third round on WR since 2000. One, Branch, is a hit. Mathematically, we'd probably expect what, 2 to be hits? It seems insane to me to say anything about Belichick's ability to draft WR based on that. And if we add the late-round picks (2 of 4 7th-rounders are hits), I see a draft record that's average.
Wutang has focused on the upper reaches of the draft, and that is fine. It also is limited.soxfan121 said:
As we're continually reminded in the cases of Moss and Welker, you should consider all inputs, the draft and FA too.
So that would include not only the serial lesser known failures, but guys like Ochocinco and Amendola too. Real money; clusterfuck acquisitions.
So look from a higher level. Are there not at least a dozen teams in this League with which you would exchange WRs corps quickly and without reservation? Very good teams and abysmal ones, e.g. Denver and Washington? And has that not been the case for a while?
I would feel better about this if they HAD starved the position from a resources standpoint, dollar wise and otherwise, but nobody has made that case. Indeed the opposite case has been made.
I know AH was a kick in the nuts, but he alone does not come close to explaining all of it.
The Patriots haven't starved WR, but they definitely haven't invested as much in it as a lot of other teams. Amendola is making real money, but not big money: he has the 26th-highest cap hit among WR this year. He's a bust and a disappointment at $4.7 MM, certainly, but that's a fraction of what Mike Wallace or Vincent Jackson or Pierre Garcon are making. Ochocinco had a 3-year, $6.35 MM deal, which is pretty modest. Moss averaged something like $8 MM / year in his time in NE, and they saved a bunch of money by dealing him in 2010. They traded Branch rather than pay him. They let Welker walk after he finished out his 5-year, $18 MM contract. They haven't ignored the position, but they haven't spent big, either, and they're the only team not to draft a first-rounder receiver this millennium. They don't have an elite group of WR, but if they're underperforming relative to the resources invested at the position, it isn't by a lot.dcmissle said:
Between 1995 and 2010, on average a WR was better than the next WR taken 54% of the time. The average gap was 7.75 draft picks between receivers taken. Between 2000, by my count 3 of 8 Patriots WR picks were better than the next WR taken** (4/9 if you count Matthew Slater). The average gap among those 8 picks and the next WR pick is 7.71 (8 if you include Slater). If you flipped a coin where "better" came up 54% of the time 8 times you would expect 3 or fewer "betters" 28% of the time (4 of 9 "betters" 40% of the time). As Super Nomario and others have pointed out, there isn't enough evidence to conclude that the Patriots are worse than the average team at drafting WR.
*Better here means started more games in their first four years, or started the same number of games, but made more appearances
** Better: Deion Branch, David Givens, Julian Edelman. Not Better: Bethel Johnson, P.K. Sam, Chad Jackson, Brandon Tate, Taylor Price
Edit: Oops forgot Chad Jackson
*Better here means started more games in their first four years, or started the same number of games, but made more appearances
** Better: Deion Branch, David Givens, Julian Edelman. Not Better: Bethel Johnson, P.K. Sam, Chad Jackson, Brandon Tate, Taylor Price
Edit: Oops forgot Chad Jackson
It doesn't change your overall point much, but Welker was franchised in 2012 with a 9.5m cap hit.Super Nomario said:
Some analysis I did on the "Pats aren't good at drafting and developing WRs" assertion.
http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?/topic/85971-Patriots-waived-WR-Kenbrell-Thompkins#entry5669953
http://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?/topic/85971-Patriots-waived-WR-Kenbrell-Thompkins#entry5669953
dcmissle said:
Even if we look deeper in the draft the pattern is the same:
[tablegrid= ]
Overall we're pretty close to the league average in draft resources except for the 4th and 6th rounds. How much deeper do you want to delve into the draft??
Super Nomario said:
This is certainly true for some seasons. I mean 2006 is the crowning jewel of examples, that was a pathetic receiving crew he gave Brady to work with.
My point with late rounders is if we're talking about do they use enough draft assets, I dont know how much of an asset those 7th round picks are when the hit rate has to be what maybe 5%?? And Edelman's chances were really super low considering the guy never played WR before entering the NFL.
One question I think is interesting to discuss regarding developing WRs here is the complexity of the system. Some WRs (hello Joey Galloway) just cant figure out when to adjust their route based on the defense. The counter argument to this is the WRs that leave here dont have much success. But the counter argument to that is that Bill has an amazing track record of coaching guys up and getting the absolute best football out of them. My overall take is that the disadvantage this puts them at developing receivers is less than the advantage this gives them exploiting defenses but its an interesting question to ponder.
Super Nomario said:
I dont disagree with anything you said, but if we're talking about the cap hits of guys we didnt draft, you could make this case for almost every position on the roster. Bill rarely gives out top of the pay scale for the position deals and very, very rarely does this in free agency. Outside of Adalius and Revis off the top of my head I cant remember the other big wasnt drafted here contracts he gave out.
I know this gets talked about a lot. But the reality is that guys like Joey Galloway and Chad OchoCinco were simply done. Galloway was 38 when he got to NE; #85 was 33 and was cut the following year by the receiver starved Dolphins. Receivers can fall off a cliff production wise any time after they hit 32-33. Their failures had little or nothing do with the complexity of the system. Consider that Branch was for all practical purposes done at 33, Moss declined dramatically at the same age, and even Troy Brown's production declined in his 33-35 years. Some guys can go longer, but they are the outliers.
As for rookies washing out, there are a number of causes. Some would be unable to pick up any NFL system; others simply cannot adjust to the speed of the game; some physically wash out, unable to endure the rigors of NFL training camp and practices. Figuring which ones would have succeeded elsewhere by failed in Foxborough would be almost impossible.
If anything Dobson's issue may be physical; it's the second time in his short career that he's ending the season with an injury.
The most disturbing aspect of Dobson's career is both of his injuries were non-contact injuries. Maybe, he is just not up to it. I do sort of blame the Pats for bringing him back for the 2013 playoffs, he contributed little and then needed an operation on his foot.lexrageorge said:
lexrageorge said:
We've definetely had this debate before because I totally remember trying to dig up a WR who didnt make it here but went on to be productive somewhere else and I couldnt find any. I'm starting to agree with you that the physical problems were a big issue for those guys. But, take Brown as an example, he's a guy that never, ever had great speed or great size but 'got it' and as a result was incredibly productive here and I'd make the case that Bill 'coached him up'. The more I think about it the more I feel like the Patriots dont really struggle in this area, its just that developing WRs is really difficult.
wutang112878 said:
As we've discussed before, the entire premise here is flawed.
The Patriots have drafted a pass receiver in the first round twice; they have drafted a pass catcher in the first two rounds of the draft in 50% of Belichick's drafts. They have an average amount of All-Pro honors and Pro Bowl recognitions when compared to their peers among pass receivers drafted or traded for (with draft picks). They have developed an average number of their own players, done better than average when acquiring pass catchers in trade and a little worse when acquiring pass receivers via free agency.
There is no evidence, whatsoever, that the Patriots are "worse" than other teams when it comes to drafting, developing or acquiring pass receivers. But it persists as "common knowledge" because defining it as "WR" allows one to construct a selectively-chosen case that they do, in fact suck.
http://i.imgur.com/dzzZDFF.mp4