Does Cleveland Rock? The 2024-2025 Cavs Thread!

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Here are the last posts from the NYK thread that prompted this thread:

I know this is the Knicks thread but it is amazing to me that everyone simply looks over Cleveland. They have not one, but two, players who can make a case for being a Top-10 guy this year in Mitchell and Mobley, high level guys in Allen and Garland at their respective positions and another 6-7 players who fit in well with the top end of the roster. Belichick would say you are what your record says you are.....30-4 is pretty nuts.
It's criminal. They're not the same team as the 2023-24 Celtics, but they have a similar thing going: "2 elite scorers + shooting/playmaking around them = elite offense". They also have a defensive gear, given how elite Mobley is, and how Mitchell and Garland seem to be trying.

I'm not sure that Boston should be favored over them, unless KP is healthy and looking great.
I made that point last week and was informed that the Cavs lack playoff experience, don't have a top-10 player and aren't serious title contenders.
I don't think anyone is looking over CLE - after all, they are on a 72 win pace. However, while I've not looked at their schedule closely, buzz has it that they've played a lot of the dregs of the NBA and when they've played the better teams, they have missed stars. They are #1 in ORtg in the NBA in large part due to the fact that they are shooting 40.6% from 3P as a team - and most people think that probably won't hold (Caris LaVert is shooting 46% from 3P; Okoro is shooting like 49%).

Finally, while Mobley is certainly an All-Star, this team will go as far as he will take him. If he leaps into the top-10 conversation, yeah they'll be a problem but almost everyone has CLE a step below OKC and BOS.
I do keep forgetting that their 3P% is almost certainly unsustainable.

And you are correct: their remaining schedule is over .500, which is tough to do as an EC team that is elite and can't play itself.
At one point, CLE was undefeated against under .500 teams and X-4 against over .500 teams. But that statistic changes with how ATL is doing as CLE is 28-2 against the NBA other than ATL and 0-2 versus ATL.

If the NBA Gods have any sense of humor, ATL-CLE will be a first round match-up.
 

HomeRunBaker

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In regards to SOS. The 3 teams I have with the easiest SOS thus far are the Knicks, Celtics and then the Cavs. It is not correct however as I haven't eliminated their +26 wins from the equation, the Celtics +17 and the Knicks +12. On the inverse, 4 of the 5 "toughest" schedules are the Wizards, Raptors, Jazz and Pelicans. I don't place much weight in these small samples of scheduling unless they are heavily skewed to include long road trips or have yet to taken long road trips. Beating bad things is often associated with weakness.....I don't necessarily buy this angle as it requires a greater focus and process to do so. This is what people were saying about the Mavs down the stretch of last years regular season.
 

BigSoxFan

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I certainly didn’t have them as a threat to 70 wins.

Not sure what to make of them.
My take is they’re not as good as their record suggests but they’re clearly better than they were last year and a real threat to win the EC.
 

Euclis20

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It's really no mystery as to why people aren't taking them seriously yet:

-Other than the coach, this is basically the same team as the last two years that won a grand total of 6 combined playoff games.
-They don't have a clear top 10 player, let alone the top 5 player that is usually required to win the title.

Those are basically stronger versions of the arguments made against the Celtics last year, despite all evidence to the contrary Boston had plenty of doubters right up until they won the title (and in retrospect they dominated the whole season from start to finish and it was foolish to pick against them at any point, especially once Denver was eliminated). A couple of reasons to expect regression from the Cavs:

-They've been exceedingly healthy. Their top 4 has missed a combined 4 games.
-As noted in other threads, their 3P% seems to be unsustainably high. Again this is basically the exact same personnel as the last two years, when they shot .367 from 3 in both seasons, good for 12th and 15th league-wide. This season they are shooting .406 from 3 (best in the league) while significantly upping their attempts.

Darko has always really liked Mitchell (a bit more than popular opinion), and by DPM he's the 7th best player in the league right now(behind Jokic, SGA, Tatum, Wemby, Luka and Giannis). No one ever has had really high expectations for Mitchell or his teams (which is why no one cares that he's been to the playoffs 7 times and never gotten to the conference finals), and that's gonna continue right up until they get out of the EC. Mobley has taken a giant leap forward after a couple of relatively disappointing seasons, if his improvement is real (no reason to think it isn't, this is where people expected him to end up after his promising rookie season) then the Cavs are, too. One of the biggest lessons from Boston's win last year is that continuity should probably matter more than it does, and we're seeing that with the Cavs. Maybe they aren't a 70 win team with a +12 point differential, but it's not unreasonable to think that they're the biggest threat to Boston in the east. That won't stop the national talking heads from picking any of the Knicks/Bucks/Sixers over them should they meet in the playoffs.

*edited to add, a lot of people were waiting to see how they'd handle their first major WC road trip, and man did they succeed. 4-0 over the Nuggets, Warriors, Lakers and Mavs, by an average of 14 points.
 

benhogan

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30-4 is amazing, but the CAVs weren't overlooked around here, a bunch of us had their OVER to start the season.

I really liked what Atkinson did with the Nets until Coach Kyrie booted him. The CAVS have garnered a nice HC uptick. Moving off Bickerstaff was bold but smart.

Several good role players + a BIG4 + an overrated Max Strus on the DL instead of in the starting lineup has been helpful.

OKC is the real story in my book, 29-5 without Chet (3rd best player?) & the WC schedule.
The Thunder have been abusing good teams all year.
 
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wade boggs chicken dinner

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In regards to SOS. The 3 teams I have with the easiest SOS thus far are the Knicks, Celtics and then the Cavs. It is not correct however as I haven't eliminated their +26 wins from the equation, the Celtics +17 and the Knicks +12. On the inverse, 4 of the 5 "toughest" schedules are the Wizards, Raptors, Jazz and Pelicans. I don't place much weight in these small samples of scheduling unless they are heavily skewed to include long road trips or have yet to taken long road trips. Beating bad things is often associated with weakness.....I don't necessarily buy this angle as it requires a greater focus and process to do so. This is what people were saying about the Mavs down the stretch of last years regular season.
Curious - if OKC and CLE were to (god forbid) meet in the Finals, who would you have favored?

In addition to everything else said in this thread, CLE leads the league both in 3P% (.406; 2nd place is MIL at .383 and then NYK at .382) and 2P% (.585; 2nd place is NYK at .577 and then BOS at .575).

Between now and the ASB, they have an interesting schedule - playing home and away against OKC, IND, MIN, HOU, DET, and TOR. They also play BOS, DAL, PHO, and ATL at home. The gimmes are CHA (tonight), the two games against TOR mentioned previously, and @WAS, and likely @MIA.

If they are 50-4 when they get to the ASB, I think people will have a different opinion of them. :)
 

InstaFace

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Curious - if OKC and CLE were to (god forbid) meet in the Finals, who would you have favored?
Ask me in a week and a half, after they play a home-and-home against each other between now and then! That will be some appointment viewing.

(a lot depends on how much Garland's defensive improvement is real. DARKO thinks his defensive skills are flat from last year, and it's his offense that has gotten a lot better; I question a bit how that will translate to the playoffs, but a team like OKC will certainly put the proposition to the test)
 

benhogan

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Curious - if OKC and CLE were to (god forbid) meet in the Finals, who would you have favored?

In addition to everything else said in this thread, CLE leads the league both in 3P% (.406; 2nd place is MIL at .383 and then NYK at .382) and 2P% (.585; 2nd place is NYK at .577 and then BOS at .575).

Between now and the ASB, they have an interesting schedule - playing home and away against OKC, IND, MIN, HOU, DET, and TOR. They also play BOS, DAL, PHO, and ATL at home. The gimmes are CHA (tonight), the two games against TOR mentioned previously, and @WAS, and likely @MIA.

If they are 50-4 when they get to the ASB, I think people will have a different opinion of them. :)
FWIW - updated Vegas NBA Championship odds
BOS +200
OKC +350
NYK +1000
CLE +1100
DEN +1600

I'm kind of shocked that the Knicks are still ahead of the CAVs
 

jon abbey

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It will be a huge advantage for CLE getting through if they can keep the #1 spot, then they only have to play one of BOS and NY.

Those two beat them soundly in the past two playoffs (Knicks have changed a lot but Brunson/Hart/Robinson probably NY’s 3 best players that series, Hart really bothered Mitchell and Robinson abused Allen, 29 offensive boards in 5 games).

Anyway, BOS can beat the other two consecutively but I don’t think CLE or NY could, so for them the #1 seed is huge.
 

HomeRunBaker

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That’s Vegas. A lot more NYers betting on the Knicks.
That’s not really Vegas even though sports betting odds have always been associated with Las Vegas. Most originate offshore but even still the market is shaped from the money that enters from all over the world. Between offshores and sports betting now being legal in 38(?) states the actual dollar amount of wagers placed in Las Vegas is a small percentage of the money that shapes the market.
 

LA_33

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That’s not really Vegas even though sports betting odds have always been associated with Las Vegas. Most originate offshore but even still the market is shaped from the money that enters from all over the world. Between offshores and sports betting now being legal in 38(?) states the actual dollar amount of wagers placed in Las Vegas is a small percentage of the money that shapes the market.
Where the lines are set isn't really the point, though, is it?

Regardless of where the bets are being placed, NYK over Cavs feels to me like "Not a lot of sharp money on either team at those odds, and MUCH more casual action on the Knicks than the Cavs, even if the Cavs are clearly better."

You'd have a much better sense than me, though. Does that seem like how that line happens?
 

Bosoxian

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Where the lines are set isn't really the point, though, is it?

Regardless of where the bets are being placed, NYK over Cavs feels to me like "Not a lot of sharp money on either team at those odds, and MUCH more casual action on the Knicks than the Cavs, even if the Cavs are clearly better."

You'd have a much better sense than me, though. Does that seem like how that line happens?
That’s what I was getting at. Typing ‘Vegas’ is easier than typing ‘the sports betting industry ‘
 

HomeRunBaker

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Where the lines are set isn't really the point, though, is it?

Regardless of where the bets are being placed, NYK over Cavs feels to me like "Not a lot of sharp money on either team at those odds, and MUCH more casual action on the Knicks than the Cavs, even if the Cavs are clearly better."

You'd have a much better sense than me, though. Does that seem like how that line happens?
Overall it’s a casual players market as betting groups with partners aren’t getting involved in futures markets and individual sharp plauers are surely limited as to what they can get down. Hearing the word “Vegas” may be something some understand to not actually mean Vegas but from my experiences it usually does indicate something else as it is now one of the worst options available for sports bettors sans 1-2 books there. It’s always been a pet peeve of mine….no harm intended.
 

128

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With the caveat that we're not quite to the midpoint of the regular season, it seems likely that Boston, New York and Orlando will be battling for the No. 2 seed in the East.
 

HomeRunBaker

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73 win pace after tonight. I’ve been waiting for them to come back to Earth but it’s not happening.
Beginning next week they have a 10-day stretch which includes games IN Indiana, OKC, Minnesota, Houston and Philly. Their home games are Indiana, Phoenix and Houston. The Cavs life will be getting significantly more difficult over the next two weeks.
 

Euclis20

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Beginning next week they have a 10-day stretch which includes games IN Indiana, OKC, Minnesota, Houston and Philly. Their home games are Indiana, Phoenix and Houston. The Cavs life will be getting significantly more difficult over the next two weeks.
They're last ten wasn't a cakewalk, with wins over the Bucks, Nuggets, Warriors, Lakers, Mavs and Thunder. Even coming back to earth for them probably results in 65+ wins.
 

lovegtm

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I think if you like the theory of last year's Cs, you have to be high on the Cavs.

They can keep at least one really good creator on the floor at all times, and Boston showed how, if you have shooting and IQ around that, you can consistently leverage initial advantages into quality looks.

Defensively, they don't have Boston's 1-5 talent, but the bigs are very good, and that gives options.
 

Devizier

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I think if you like the theory of last year's Cs, you have to be high on the Cavs.
I am very high on the Cavaliers, people are sleeping on the fact that Donovan Mitchell is entering Tatum territory. Mobley has also taken a huge leap this year.
 

lovegtm

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I am very high on the Cavaliers, people are sleeping on the fact that Donovan Mitchell is entering Tatum territory. Mobley has also taken a huge leap this year.
Exactly. What Boston showed last year is that elite offense isn't a dick-measuring contest about "do you have a top-X player???".

It's about "do you have guys who can consistently put defenses in rotation, and can the rest of your lineup play off that?"

Cleveland internalized that, hard.
 

HomeRunBaker

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They're last ten wasn't a cakewalk, with wins over the Bucks, Nuggets, Warriors, Lakers, Mavs and Thunder. Even coming back to earth for them probably results in 65+ wins.
Hey I've been tooting the Cavs horns all year I'm just saying that they have had the leagues easiest schedule as of last week. I'm a proponent of a team running through bad teams being a GREAT sign and not a "yeah but look who they played" as taking care of business night in and night out is an enormous tell that a team is dialed in and playing great. That list of teams the Cavs beat above must however be taken into context of beating Bucks at home w/o Lillard, Mavs w/o Doncic and Kyrie but yeah winning in Denver and beating the Thunder isn't nothing. All I'm saying is an upcoming 4-4 or even 3-5 stretch shouldn't surprise anyone either.
 

Euclis20

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Hey I've been tooting the Cavs horns all year I'm just saying that they have had the leagues easiest schedule as of last week. I'm a proponent of a team running through bad teams being a GREAT sign and not a "yeah but look who they played" as taking care of business night in and night out is an enormous tell that a team is dialed in and playing great. That list of teams the Cavs beat above must however be taken into context of beating Bucks at home w/o Lillard, Mavs w/o Doncic and Kyrie but yeah winning in Denver and beating the Thunder isn't nothing. All I'm saying is an upcoming 4-4 or even 3-5 stretch shouldn't surprise anyone either.
They still have the league's easiest schedule, but part of that is that they are in the East, and don't have to play themselves. It's been relatively easy sledding for them, but they've played a harder schedule for a few weeks now. Sweeping their 4 game WC road trip (all comfortable wins) was impressive enough. Their record might dip a bit, but for me at least, they don't have anything left to prove in the regular season.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Hey I've been tooting the Cavs horns all year I'm just saying that they have had the leagues easiest schedule as of last week. I'm a proponent of a team running through bad teams being a GREAT sign and not a "yeah but look who they played" as taking care of business night in and night out is an enormous tell that a team is dialed in and playing great. That list of teams the Cavs beat above must however be taken into context of beating Bucks at home w/o Lillard, Mavs w/o Doncic and Kyrie but yeah winning in Denver and beating the Thunder isn't nothing. All I'm saying is an upcoming 4-4 or even 3-5 stretch shouldn't surprise anyone either.
Cavs now 3-5 in their last 8 after dropping their 3rd straight.