Dombrowski: SP likely from FA. Which should we sign?

[nvalvo]

@brimac: 'Dombrowski said his "guess" is, based on conversations with teams in recent weeks, that he gets his ace via free agency.'

So let's set aside our trade targets Sale and Gray and Carrasco and Quintana, and turn our attention to the FAs.

SoxScout has been maintaining an awesome pitching spreadsheet here. Take a look.

I won't reproduce that considerable effort, but I will provide links to the B-R and Fangraphs pages for each starter, their 2016 baseball age, whether they would cost a draft pick to sign, and the Fangraphs median crowdsourced contract prediction — with the caveat that those estimates tend to undershoot reality by 10-20 percent.

Also, I've included more FA pitchers than I consider aces, but ran out of survey slots before I got to e.g. J.A. Happ. Please correct me if I've gotten any details wrong.

[BR | Fangraphs] Johnny Cueto, Age 30. No pick, 6/$132m, $22m AAV
[BR | Fangraphs] Wei-Yin Chen, Age 30. Pick, 4/$52m, $13m AAV
[BR | Fangraphs] Zack Greinke, Age 32. Pick, 6/$156m, $26m AAV
[BR | Fangraphs] Yovani Gallardo, Age 30. Pick, 4/$56m, $14m AAV
[BR | Fangraphs] Hisashi Iwakuma, Age 35. Pick, 3/$42m, $14m AAV
[BR | Fangraphs] David Price, Age 30. No pick, 7/$196, $28m AAV
[BR | Fangraphs] Jeff Samardzija, Age 31. Pick, 4/$64m, $16m AAV
[BR | Fangraphs] Jordan Zimmermann, Age 30. Pick, 6/$126m, $21m AAV

 

[JBJ_HOF]

I think it really boils down to, after the first two, would we pick Cueto or Zimmermann.

 

[nvalvo]

A lot of early support for Price. Even if we're looking at an 8/$220 type deal?

My own feeling is that Cueto+$70m additional payroll flexibility is preferable to Price. I want to lock up Betts and Bogaerts.

Edit: Also, I have no interest in giving up a 12th overall pick if it can possibly be avoided.

 

[LogansDad]

I have a serious man-crush on Zach Greinke, and it may be clouding my judgement in this poll. But I would absolutely give up a pick and 6/$156M for him, if he would sign for that amount.

 

[E5 Yaz]

I went for Zimmermann, basically because I think he's the most practical signee among the only four (Cueto, Price and Greinke being the others) that i like for the Red Sox on that list.

 

[67WasBest]

DD will be in at the end on both Price and Greinke, I think in the end they lose out on both, and we get Cueto @ 5/120. Possibly a performance based option for a 6th.

If DD stopped there, I'd be OK with where they are.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

I went for Zimmermann, basically because I think he's the most practical signee among the only four (Cueto, Price and Greinke being the others) that i like for the Red Sox on that list.

Ya know, I voted Price, but I'm starting to think Zimmermann would be a nice catch. He;s going to get a good amount less and doesn't represent that much of a downgrade. He will cost a pick, but if the difference is 7/$210 for Price and 6..what...$150? $140? for Zimm, I think I'd take that. I don't remember where I saw it today but since 2011, Zimm has produced about 3 WAR less than Price/Greinke and like 1 or 2 less than Cueto. I personally could give two shits about what they spend because I don't buy into the sox having a hard cp this year, but I also understand at some point they will have to make choices unless they completely abandon their principles.

And as an aside, if they wanted to swap some guys like Buchholz or Miley out for other pieces, I would love to see them take a one or two year flier on Doug Fister. I think he's a pretty strong rebound candidate that could be had cheap.

Zimmermann
Porcello
Fister
Rodriguez
Miley

I'd be pretty happy with that if we got one more bullpen piece, like a Sipp or O'Day (or traded for another power arm).

 

[E5 Yaz]

And just because Dombrowski says they aren't like to trade for a starting pitcher doesn't mean that the same will be true tomorrow. It's the Pitino Principle of Truth-Telling.

 

[Pilgrim]

The most incredibly brutal thing in the world for this team would be to sign another FA who busts in year one of a big FA deal. I like Cueto and Z a lot, but they seem most likely to be that guy.

Price is going to be absurdly expensive, but I feel like you would actually stand a good chance of getting some of the elite years that are being paid for.

Paying for actual performance is always rough, but paying for guys who end up sucking is the true killer. Last years team for example.

 

[grimshaw]

We haven't had a surly red-ass in a while. If they're going all in, I want Greinke

 

[geoduck no quahog]

Bracket 1: Price / Cueto...I go with Cueto

Bracket 2: Zimmermann/Iwakuma...I go with Zimmermann (but would accept Iwakuma at a discount)

Given the pick - I might reject bracket 2.

I went with Cueto.

 

[Drek717]

I'm betting they get Cueto, which is fine by me. Pitching is too volatile to have real certainty that the premium you pay for Price will actually get premium production over Cueto/Zimmerman and of those two Cueto is the one that lets you keep the 12th overall pick.

 

[Lowrielicious]

We haven't had a surly red-ass in a while. If they're going all in, I want Greinke

Same here.
If we're going long on a pitcher I want it to be a guy that by all accounts works hard at making adjustments constantly. Much better chance of elite pitching as his stuff ages.

There seems an awful lot of people not even seeing Greinke as an option. Is it assumed Dodgers will get him? Or the lack of monster K numbers?

 

[MikeM]

There seems an awful lot of people not even seeing Greinke as an option. Is it assumed Dodgers will get him? Or the lack of monster K numbers?

FG's estimate there is low, and especially so if we are speculating in terms that see us outbidding the field. Which is likely what it's going to take to get Greinke, or any of the other top guys for that matter. No way LA, or probably even SF, lets him walk to Boston on a $6/$156 deal.

I voted Zimmerman here, mostly due to an ongoing belief that we'd ultimately stay away from the highest level craziness surrounding Price/Greinke. After seeing today's GFIN type trade i'm feeling a little less certain that is how things are going to shake out now though.

 

[derekson]

My preference would be Greinke. He's a superb pitcher who has already shown the guile and adaptability to improve his off speed stuff and his strategy to compensate for lost velocity. Heck, e just posted the second best season of his career at age 31. Price has improved his off speed stuff, but he still doesn't strike me as the type that will succeed with a 90 MPH fastball. And I'm not generally a believer in chokers at the MLB level; you have to succeed in pressure situations just to make it to the majors. But Price seems to me the kind of guy who is too emotional and gets overly worked up in big games and can't control the adrenaline and overthrows, leading to sometimes disastrous performances in big spots. Jake Peavy was another classic example of this type of personality on the mound.

In reality though, I think the Dodgers sign Price and the Cubs sign Greinke, or the other way around. In either case i think those two clubs sign those two guys, leaving the Sox to choose from Cueto or Zimmermann. I'm not especially partial to either of these guys over the other one, though I think I'd lean towards Zimmermann.

 

[circus catch]

I think Greinke is staying NL because he loves to hit. I truly respect Price and he's certainly proven in the AL, but I've seen him as something of a whiner, and given his playoff history, I'm not sure his act will play with our fans and media. This brings me to Cueto, and while I don't see him as a lock to succeed, I do see that contract as relatively low risk. I'll relate it to Sandoval and Hanley. I know I'm of the minority here, but I don't think their contracts are deadweight yet. If they have just one quality - not even star - level year, then the remaining years of their contracts will be moveable. I see Cueto at 21 a year as the same. What will pitchers make in 3 years?

I voted Cueto.

 

[Rasputin]

I voted Grienke. If prefer a righty and I'd prefer to not give up the pick but as long as whoever it is is a real ace, ibl don't really care.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Having pushed so many chips in for Kimbrel, I think Dombrowski needs to go all-in for Price. If not Price, Cueto. Having pushed so many prospect chips in for Price, we need to hang onto that draft pick.

 

[OCD SS]

I'd prefer Greinke, but voted Price. I don't see Greinke leaving LA (or the NL, since he seems to really like to hit). I also have a hard time seeing Theo spend $200M on another SP after spending $150M on Lester, and I don't think Price will turn down the largest SP contract in the game to go to Chicago.

Given the previously mentioned volatility in arms, after blowing extra prospects to get Kimbrel, if the pitcher choices are equal (say Cueto to Zimmermann) they should grab the guy who doesn't cost the twelfth pick.

 

[Zimmer's Helmet]

If I'm DD, I go for Grienke - his pitching style will play out better as he ages and his velocity diminishes. Not sure I'd feel the same about Price as he approaches his mid-30's.

 

[Apisith]

Price because his control is great, has pitched and succeeded in the AL East and if I remember correctly, has shown success with diminished velocity, intentional or unintentional. Was it a year or two ago when he threw a bit softer but basically eliminated his walks?

I also don't want to give up the pick. It's a high pick.

 

[Alex Cole's Rec Specs]

I think it's Cueto, for the simple fact that he is the free agent most likely to pick Boston, money being equal (and unlike Zimmermann, he will not cost a pick). He loves Pedro and has said on a number of occasions in the media that he would pitch in Boston. I think the reality with Greinke and Price is that the Red Sox probably don't have the budget nor stomach to outbid the competition and neither pitcher has any reason to pick Boston, in the AL East, above all other suitors.

Cueto has an uneven track record in the postseason, and in a very limited sample size he seems to have trouble pitching in the postseason on the road, but the dude is a pretty darn good pitcher, has been excellent throughout his career in interleague play, and if nothing else ended his postseason with the Royals on a high note. I think the lure of being part of Red Sox lore with Tiant and Pedro is enough to bring Cueto here for something like 5/$125 or 6/$132, other offers being equal. They should have already spent that coin on Jon Lester last year, but so it goes.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I voted Grienke. If prefer a righty and I'd prefer to not give up the pick but as long as whoever it is is a real ace, ibl don't really care.

A lot of people probably don't care about the pick, which is what happens when a #7 turns into Trey Ball. But the real killer is losing the #12 slot money, because in a year the Sox had no free agents, that's the only real money the Sox get to pay over-slot money to later-round "reach" picks.

I voted Cueto, because these guys are human and I've never seen anything suggesting Price has Boston on his map any more than Cliff Lee ever did.

Meanwhile, Cueto and Pedro are DR friends, which won't mean he comes at a discount, but maybe that he'd choose to play for the Sox, all other things being equal.

 

[Apisith]

Price also threw harder last year than he did in the year before. So even if his fastball velocity drops, he can still be one of the most effective pitchers in the league.

 

[Adrian's Dome]

Vote me in camp Greinke/Cueto. Cueto if they're concerned about the budget, Greinke if not.

As far as Price goes, we're already LH-heavy in the rotation, he's going to be the most expensive, and he's had verbal issues with both Boston and Ortiz in the past on top of some well-documented performance issues under pressure (yes, I realize it's a small sample size, but still.) Out of any of the FA pitchers, talented as he is, he's the one I'd be least enthused with given the variables. Maybe it's the TB connection, but I'm getting a bit of a Crawford vibe from him as far as fit goes, whereas the two aforementioned guys strike me more like Holliday that same offseason who I still believe would've been a far better pickup.

If none of the above, Zimmermann would be a nice consolation prize at a more reasonable price.

 

[Clears Cleaver]

highly doubt Price or Greinke have any interest in coming to Boston for a myriad of reasons. Or maybe I should say, do not prefer to come to Boston. I think, if DD is confident that he can get a FA starter, then its Cueto

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

Better price point, 200+ innings the last three years, younger then Price/Greinke, and no pick?

Cueto makes too much sense.

 

[lxt]

Based on the signing estimates (above) why not try for both Cueto and Zimmermann. It would be a tad expensive but doable. Try to sign both for 5/$125. This would solidify the rotation with Porcello, Buchholz & Rodriguez. Wiley & Kelly would become trade chips (Would Chapman be a possibility for those two) or long-relief. The pen has been some what stabilized with the addition of Kimbrel and moving either Miley or Kelly in to the long role would further strengthen the pen.

 

[johnnywayback]

I'm hoping very much that we don't give up the #12 pick. Our farm system, which is a huge strength for us right now, is weak beyond the top tier. And, hopefully, we won't have high picks like this very often going forward.

So I guess I'm reluctantly on Team Price, although I could live with Cueto assuming his medicals check out.

 

[Mighty Joe Young]

I think the draft pick will be the overriding factor here .. It may not be a huge deal to DD but probably is to the rest of the FO. If that's the case then I think Plan A is Price, Plan B is Cueto.

That being said my money's on Cueto being the guy they sign. Price will probably go to the Cubs

Grienke is obviously a great pitcher but he's going to get a competitive offer from Dodgers so he'll probably go back there.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I think Cueto is the guy, Pedro will mentor him, and happiness ensues. Make it happen, DD

 

[Seabass]

I think the draft pick will be the overriding factor here .. It may not be a huge deal to DD but probably is to the rest of the FO. If that's the case then I think Plan A is Price, Plan B is Cueto.

That being said my money's on Cueto being the guy they sign. Price will probably go to the Cubs

Grienke is obviously a great pitcher but he's going to get a competitive offer from Dodgers so he'll probably go back there.

I don't understand why it's seen as a fait accompli that Greinke's going back to the Dodgers. A "competitive" offer isn't what Greinke wants. Here's what he said the last time he was a free agent:

"I could play for the worst team if they paid the most," Greinke said in an interview with CBSSports.com. "If the last-place team offers $200 million and the first-place team offers $10, I'm going to go for the $200 million no matter what team it was."

The projections I've seen have Greinke getting something around 5/160. If the Sox offer 6/175 or 7/200, I think he'd leave LA. Of course, the Dodgers could top that and there are reasonable arguments against offering him 6 or 7 years, but I don't think it's impossible that Greinke is pitching elsewhere next year.

He's who I'd like the Sox to sign. If not him, then Price.

 

[Devizier]

I think Price gets Scherzer money (at least) and that Greinke gets the projected Price money. Cueto and Zimmerman will probably get near Jon Lester's money and that makes sense as they are roughly in his class. Of those two, I would take Cueto. Iwakuma is too expensive for a late career guy with injury concerns, despite his excellence, and I'm leery of the other major options in free agency.

 

[Lockdown]

I like Cueto as the option to go with, with fair value for what he is. Should the team stop there, or consider holding onto their pick in potentially posting for Kenta Maeda?

 

[jimbobim]

Echoing what others have said. Voted Greinke would have Price as number 2 followed by Cueto and Zimm.

Also this was noteworthy, if unrealistic from Pete Abe.

■ Greinke will probably end up back with the Dodgers; that would seem to make a lot of sense. But the Red Sox could be an intriguing team for him.

Greinke came to the majors in 2004 with Kansas City. Allard Baird, now a Red Sox executive, was the GM of the Royals at the time. Greinke also played five years in Kansas City with Brian Bannister, who is now director of pitcher analysis and development for the Red Sox.

At 32, Greinke is unlikely to command a six-year deal. But the Red Sox may be willing to overpay for four years, perhaps dramatically so. Just something to keep in mind.

I mean if you assume Price and Greinke are going to start off demanding 30 AAV like Scherzer and Kersh overpaying puts you in the 35/40 AAV range on a 4 year deal. 4 yr 160 v 6 for 160 predict by Fangraphs. And if that's low... Don't think 4 year term gets Sox in the room but the money for either is going to be nuts...

http://www.bostonglobe.com/sports/2015/11/14/dave-dombrowski-did-not-mortgage-red-sox-future-for-craig-kimbrel/OoCiiAyVhWkWGIZ3hI8VxK/story.html?event=event25

 

[Rasputin]

Having pushed so many chips in for Kimbrel, I think Dombrowski needs to go all-in for Price. If not Price, Cueto. Having pushed so many prospect chips in for Price, we need to hang onto that draft pick.

It's one pick. IT'S ONE PICK!

Yes, it's a high one. Yes, if you continually give away picks you're gonna be fucked. Yes, this is a higher pick than the Sox normally have and thus one that you really don't want to give up.

BUT IT'S JUST ONE PICK, and the likelihood of any one pick being more than just a guy is pretty small.

Here (http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?overall_pick=12&draft_type=junreg&) is a list of guys that got picked 12th. There's some really good names on that list, but there are a heck of a lot more guys who are JAGs or worse.

We're not going to miss a pick all that much. It's much, MUCH more important for the next twenty years of this organization that it get the right pitcher than that it keep the pick.

 

[lxt]

I originally stated that all the Sox needed were Price and Chapman. Since I made that statement (end of the season - The DD thread) I've come to the conclusion that Price would just be too expensive. The money the Cubs, Dodgers and possible the Yankees and Giants will throw his way is just creating another Lester type scenario. There is a point to which Henry will go and then no further. I'd love to see Price come to the Sox but like so many others have already stated his Price (pun intended) is just to high.

 

[lxt]

It's one pick. IT'S ONE PICK!

Yes, it's a high one. Yes, if you continually give away picks you're gonna be fucked. Yes, this is a higher pick than the Sox normally have and thus one that you really don't want to give up.

BUT IT'S JUST ONE PICK, and the likelihood of any one pick being more than just a guy is pretty small.

Here (http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?overall_pick=12&draft_type=junreg&) is a list of guys that got picked 12th. There's some really good names on that list, but there are a heck of a lot more guys who are JAGs or worse.

We're not going to miss a pick all that much. It's much, MUCH more important for the next twenty years of this organization that it get the right pitcher than that it keep the pick.

Well Done.

 

[BaseballJones]

It's one pick. IT'S ONE PICK!

Yes, it's a high one. Yes, if you continually give away picks you're gonna be fucked. Yes, this is a higher pick than the Sox normally have and thus one that you really don't want to give up.

BUT IT'S JUST ONE PICK, and the likelihood of any one pick being more than just a guy is pretty small.

Here (http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?overall_pick=12&draft_type=junreg&) is a list of guys that got picked 12th. There's some really good names on that list, but there are a heck of a lot more guys who are JAGs or worse.

We're not going to miss a pick all that much. It's much, MUCH more important for the next twenty years of this organization that it get the right pitcher than that it keep the pick.

Agreed. But in Price, you get the right pitcher AND keep the pick. You just give up a dump truck full of money.

 

[jasvlm]

I think the age/durability concerns from the front office make Zimmerman the most likely FA signee. He fits the profile of what they are trying to do more than any of the other guys, even though they lose a pick if they sign him. I also believe that if the #12 overall pick is a huge factor to the team, they will sign Price before Cueto of the 2 top targets they could consider. Greinke may be the best pitcher of the group, but his age compared to Price/Cueto/Zimmerman makes him the least likely guy for the Red Sox to pay a huge price to get.

 

[ZMart100]

Price and Greinke are the best available pitchers, but I suspect the bidding will get out of control for them. Zimmerman's loss of velocity scares me, he seems like he is either going to be less effective going forward and/or is on the fast track to TJS (same story, but even more so for Fister).

I voted Cueto. While I don't think he deserves the title "ace" like Price and Greinke do, he isn't that far off. He is a good teammate and mentor, at least the KC broadcast team gave him a lot of credit for helping Ventura turn around his season. Cueto won't be cheap, but I think he'll provide the best combination of talent and value.

 

[Maximus]

I voted Price, Cueto is the 2nd option due to the draft pick implications. I like Zimmerman but not sure of him as an ace of the staff.

 

[Rasputin]

Agreed. But in Price, you get the right pitcher AND keep the pick. You just give up a dump truck full of money.

Price may or may not be the right guy. He certainly looks like he has what we need, but the information we have is so far from complete it's frightening.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Based on the signing estimates (above) why not try for both Cueto and Zimmermann. It would be a tad expensive but doable. Try to sign both for 5/$125.

Didn't glean anything informative from the first time you tried to suggest this, huh?

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

It's one pick. IT'S ONE PICK!

Yes, it's a high one. Yes, if you continually give away picks you're gonna be fucked. Yes, this is a higher pick than the Sox normally have and thus one that you really don't want to give up.

BUT IT'S JUST ONE PICK, and the likelihood of any one pick being more than just a guy is pretty small.

Here (http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?overall_pick=12&draft_type=junreg&) is a list of guys that got picked 12th. There's some really good names on that list, but there are a heck of a lot more guys who are JAGs or worse.

We're not going to miss a pick all that much. It's much, MUCH more important for the next twenty years of this organization that it get the right pitcher than that it keep the pick.

Q: What do Will Middlebrooks, Anthony Ranaudo, Mookie Betts, Blake Swihart, Jackie Bradley, Henry Owens, Gabe Speier, Carlos Asuaje, and Logan Allen all have in common?

A: They were all drafted by the Red Sox and signed to their first pro contract for at least $100K over-slot. And all of them you've either projected to directly contribute to your "next great Red Sox team" starting in 2016, or to indirectly contribute through inclusion in trades which brought in direct contributors.

As I said before, under the new system which links draft bonus pool to draft slots, giving up the #12 pick is about more than just giving up the chance to sign the next Jered Weaver or Nomar Garciaparra (or Mark Snyder or Ken Felder). It's also about what else can be done with the money that comes along with that chance.

 

[lxt]

Didn't glean anything informative from the first time you tried to suggest this, huh?

Nothing constructive was offered. A concern over the cost was voiced but other than that nothing. If I remember correctly your concerned seem to be more about my poor research (agree that was definitely an issue) and the fact that you felt Porcello could not be traded based on his last four starts and the size (4/$82.5) of his contract without subsidizing the trade.

 

[jasail]

I voted Cueto.

I'd prefer Greinke and Price to Cueto, but I just don't see these two signing in Boston. I don't see Boston being a good fit for either of these guys and I think there are other places they will be able to go for similar money (e.g., Dodgers, Cubs). So unless Boston is offering way above what market value bears out for these guys, then I just can't see either coming here instead of a better and more comfortable place.

IMO, leaves Cueto. He's younger than the other two and given his uneven performance for KCR this year his value is probably closer to JWH comfort zone. Plus, he has expressed an interest in coming here and has a relationship with Pedro. With Cueto, there is also the added benefit of not losing the pick.

As for the remaining guys, I very little interest in any of them. I don't really want to see the Sox commit >$100M on either of these guys and have less interest in doing it when it comes with the #12 draft pick and slot money. Sure, it's just one pick and I'd be more than happy to give it up for Greinke or Price (if he wasn't traded), because those guys are elite who will have a transformative effect on the team. Shark and Zimmerman aren't that for me, they are closer to more of what we have in Buchholz and Porcello (when right). So, the $100+M cost of contract, the slot money and the pick would be enough for me to walk away and explore trade options.

 

[BaseballJones]

Price may or may not be the right guy. He certainly looks like he has what we need, but the information we have is so far from complete it's frightening.

I guess that's true, but then that would also be true of any other pitcher we're talking about.

 

[JBJ_HOF]

It's one pick. IT'S ONE PICK!

Yes, it's a high one. Yes, if you continually give away picks you're gonna be fucked. Yes, this is a higher pick than the Sox normally have and thus one that you really don't want to give up.

BUT IT'S JUST ONE PICK, and the likelihood of any one pick being more than just a guy is pretty small.

Here (http://www.baseball-reference.com/draft/?overall_pick=12&draft_type=junreg&) is a list of guys that got picked 12th. There's some really good names on that list, but there are a heck of a lot more guys who are JAGs or worse.

We're not going to miss a pick all that much. It's much, MUCH more important for the next twenty years of this organization that it get the right pitcher than that it keep the pick.

It's not really 1 pick, losing it is a massive blow to our draft pool allocation and affects the talent we can sign is a major way.

 

[The Celtbot]

I don't think this would be realistic, is there even a small chance that we go after Chapman still and turn him into a starter again? I know it's unlikely, but he used to start in Cuba and his first year in the minors.