Dope Divisional NFL Game Thread

mjm3773

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He probably has injury guarantees and the Ravens don’t want to be on the hook for $5M just because their 3rd string RB gets hurt in sparse playing time since they’re likely to cut him in the offseason.
 

Rudy's Curve

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Their offense isn't really good. Their offense, in fact, is one dimensional and a weakness.

Against a ridiculously bad Tennessee defense, (like, REALLY bad) they needed an otherworldly Lamar run to win their game. And they scored a mere 20 points. Buffalo is going to win this game, in my opinion. They will be able to get off the field on third down. Tennessee defense is allergic to getting off the field on 3rd down.
The Ravens scored over 29 points a game while also eating a ton of clock. It may be one-dimensional, but it ain't a weakness. The Bills offense is also one-dimensional - they finished 22nd in rush DVOA.

The Bills certainly have a better defense than Tennessee, but they don't have the multi-dimensional attack on offense. I'm not even saying Baltimore is going to win - I think Buffalo -2.5 is fair as they're at home and have a QB whose arm strength is an advantage in these conditions. The Ravens are really good though and I expect a very close game.
 

mauf

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You'd have to think if Brady can win this week, he's favored to win the whole thing.

The Packers keep getting the easiest possible path year in and year out. They also keep fucking it up.
This is the best Packers team since the 15-1 team. Whether it was the team drafting Jordan Love or something else, Aaron Rodgers found another gear and did an awfully good peak-TB12 impression this season, right at the moment the team had upgraded talent around him and brought in real coaching. They might not win the two home games they need to go to the Super Bowl, but they’re nothing like the team that lost in San Francisco this time last year or other Packer teams of the recent past.

Agree that the Packers are pulling for the favored Saints to beat the Bucs. The Bucs have been the better team by a considerable margin against the rest of the league.
 
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Rudy's Curve

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The Packers keep getting the easiest possible path year in and year out. They also keep fucking it up.
I have no clue what this means. Let's look at their playoff paths under Rodgers:

2009: lost first game
2010: beat all three top seeds in NFC and #2 seed in AFC
2011: bye, lost first game against team that went on to win SB
2012: won first game, lost divisional game against Niners team that went to SB
2013: lost first game against 12-4 Niners team that was way overqualified for WC and went to NFC CG
2014: bye, beat #3 seed, lost to #1 seed
2015: won WC, lost in divisional round (I guess since they played the 2 when they could've played the 1 this was easy?)
2016: beat #5, beat #1, lost to #2
2019: bye, beat #5 Seahawks (could've played the #3 Saints), lost to #1

That's two losses out of eight total as favorites (2009 when they were only -2.5 at Arizona and the 2011 debacle against the Giants). Their playoff failures have a lot more to do with the NFC being a minefield in the early part of the decade and their defense being outclassed time and again than fucking up games they were supposed to win. They also lost two games in OT without touching the ball - sure, they could've gotten a stop or held to a FG and given Rodgers a chance but they also could've had Rodgers get the ball and never give it back - and another where Rodgers was blatantly facemasked on a pick-6 in OT. As Pats fans know, sometimes the bounces go your way and sometimes they don't. For the most part, they haven't for the Packers.
 
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DeadlySplitter

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is the schedule a consideration for Bills Ravens? Someone said the Ravens have a better point differential. That is true but the Bills had to go through the double west gauntlet we did. the Ravens had the NFC Least and the AFC South with the Texans and Jags.
 

Rudy's Curve

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is the schedule a consideration for Bills Ravens? Someone said the Ravens have a better point differential. That is true but the Bills had to go through the double west gauntlet we did. the Ravens had the NFC Least and the AFC South with the Texans and Jags.
Yeah, that's what PFRs SRS does a good job of capturing. The Ravens did play an easier schedule (about two points worse than average per game while the Bills played basically an average schedule) but even accounting for that, they still had a slightly better adjusted point differential. Both teams are equally and really good; hence, I expect a great game.