Down on the Farm, 2019 edition

The Gray Eagle

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Chad Jennings in the Athletic reports on Baseball America's new Red Sox top 10 list:
https://theathletic.com/1389767/2019/11/18/the-tide-could-be-turning-takeaways-from-baseball-americas-ranking-of-top-10-red-sox-prospects/?source=dailyemail
Main message: we don't suck as much as we did last year!

At this time last year, the Red Sox top 10 included only two players who had played even a partial season in Triple A, and only one other with more than five games of Double-A experience. Those who just missed the cut were similarly inexperienced.

This year, half of the top 10 has spent significant time in Double A, suggesting they could be big-league options as early as next year. One who just missed, shortstop C.J. Chatham, played in Triple A last year, and one who’s no longer eligible, Michael Chavis, is out only because he’s graduated to the majors. Standouts from the 2018 and ’19 drafts have helped replenish the lower levels (with many of those already fast risers in the system).

Having a bottom-heavy system certainly contributed to the Red Sox being ranked the worst overall system in baseball at the beginning of last season. Moving some of that talent into the upper levels helped the Sox move up to 23rd in Baseball America’s midseason ranking. It’s still not a top system, but it’s clearing some hurdles and getting better prepared to contribute. Some of that talent has already arrived.
The Sox farm is still only ranked 23rd, but does seem to be making progress.

Ultimately, the Red Sox system still does not stand out as one of the best in baseball. But it’s clearly better than it was a year ago. Last year, the Red Sox had a top prospect graduate to the majors (Chavis) and had no first-round pick to fill the void, and they still moved up the organizational rankings. That’s a good sign.
 

burstnbloom

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if Noah song can actually pitch in the next five years, I think he could become the top prospect in our system very quickly. He just had a great stint whatever international tournament just happened

https://weei.radio.com/blogs/rob-bradford/red-sox-pitching-prospect-noah-song-making-impression
On the SoxProspects podcast last week they said the window for deferment on Song is ending at the end of this month, so we should know soon if he will pitch for the organization next year.
 

stepson_and_toe

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New DOD "guidelines to give graduates of military academies more latitude to pursue professional sports careers," according to an article by Alex Speier in the Globe.--“a strong expectation that a Military Service Academy cadet or midshipman’s future professional sports employment will provide the DoD with significant favorable media exposure likely to enhance national level recruiting or public affairs missions.”

Since Song has already graduated, it doesn't apply to him, per se, but the Secretary of the Navy is waiting on the new DOD guidelines before making a decision on him.
 

stepson_and_toe

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Tuesday, November 20th is the day that players must be protected from Rule 5 draft: players 18 and younger when signed with at least five seasons of pro ball are eligible for Rule 5 draft if not put on the 40-man roster and players who were 19 and older when signed with at least four seasons of pro ball are also eligible if not protected.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Who do we think will go on the 40-man today, if anybody? Dalbec? Chatham? Wilson? Possibly McGrath?
Maybe Ockimey? I know he's basically a no defense power bat, but he's at AAA so some team might take a flyer on him. Given the team's hole at 1B, he wouldn't be the worst plan C or D this spring.
 

stepson_and_toe

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Well, according to redsox.mlb.com, Pedroia is one of the 34 players the Red Sox currently have on their 40-man roster. He has to stay there until the 40-man roster is filled and then he can be placed on the 60-day IL, which would open another spot on the 40.
 
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Red(s)HawksFan

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Well, according to redsox.mlb.com, Pedroia is one of the 34 players the Red Sox currently have on their 40-man roster. He has to stay there until the 40-man roster is filled and then he can be placed on the 60-day IL, which would open another spot on the 40.
Not entirely true. There is no 60-day IL (or IL at all) in the off-season. So until late spring training, the only way to free up Pedroia's spot on the 40-man roster would be to DFA/release him.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Maybe Ockimey? I know he's basically a no defense power bat, but he's at AAA so some team might take a flyer on him. Given the team's hole at 1B, he wouldn't be the worst plan C or D this spring.
That's true. I'm so used to thinking of him as an ex-prospect that I didn't stop to consider him. I do find it hard to imagine a team committing to having him on their roster all year, given that he's such a one-trick pony and has never shown that he can do the trick in the bigs, but it's not inconceivable, and the Sox might want to keep that option open.
 

Plympton91

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That's true. I'm so used to thinking of him as an ex-prospect that I didn't stop to consider him. I do find it hard to imagine a team committing to having him on their roster all year, given that he's such a one-trick pony and has never shown that he can do the trick in the bigs, but it's not inconceivable, and the Sox might want to keep that option open.
Ockimey is 4 months younger than Dalbec, and he had an 811 OPS (353 OBP) to Dalbec’s 769 (301). Ockimey also had a .244 BABip, so there’s considerable upside.
 
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Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Ockimey is 4 months younger than Dalbec, and he had an 811 OPS (353 OBP) to Dalbec’s 769 (301). Ockimey also had a .244 BABip, so there’s considerable upside.
Yes, but Dalbec has defensive talent, and Ockimey does not. Also, the numbers you're quoting for Dalbec are for a 123 PA late-season promotion. There's a sample size issue there. Dalbec did similarly poorly in a similarly sized stint at Portland in 2018, and then did much better there for most of this year.

Regardless, I wasn't expressing a personal judgment so much as my understanding of the conventional wisdom about Ockimey, whose star seems to have plummeted over the past two years (for example, he's dropped from #7 on the SoxProspects list this time two years ago to #45 right now).
 

Cesar Crespo

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Ockimey had a better year with the bat in 2018, wasn't protected and wasn't drafted. I really doubt they are going to put him on the 40 after a worse season, and I doubt he's going to be picked.

He has no position and is totally useless vs LHP.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Ockimey had a better year with the bat in 2018, wasn't protected and wasn't drafted. I really doubt they are going to put him on the 40 after a worse season, and I doubt he's going to be picked.
I doubt he's going to be picked too, but it's perhaps worth noting that a year ago, (1) they had a LHH 1B under contract for the following year; (2) they weren't trying to get under the tax limit. Both those factors might make Ockimey more important this year than last; an Ockimey/Travis platoon at first doesn't seem impossible though I agree it's probably Plan Z.
 

jon abbey

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Also keep in mind that with the 26 man rosters, it will be a lot easier for teams to stash a rule 5 choice all year if they want. Not saying that will be Ockimey but I do think more players will be chosen and more kept this season because of that.
 

JBJ_HOF

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Hart is probably a worse Brian Johnson and Bazardo throws mid-90s with an elite curveball. Weird.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
I'm thinking it may boil down to the fact that Hart has a starter's repertoire and Bazardo does not, and starting depth is their most glaring weakness right now. In that sense it may have been more between Aybar and Bazardo than Hart and Bazardo.
 

steveluck7

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New DOD "guidelines to give graduates of military academies more latitude to pursue professional sports careers," according to an article by Alex Speier in the Globe.--“a strong expectation that a Military Service Academy cadet or midshipman’s future professional sports employment will provide the DoD with significant favorable media exposure likely to enhance national level recruiting or public affairs missions.”

Since Song has already graduated, it doesn't apply to him, per se, but the Secretary of the Navy is waiting on the new DOD guidelines before making a decision on him.
FYI CBS just reported that President Trump signed an EO in the Navy Locker room allowing players who play at the academies to play professionally and not have to serve.
Perhaps this brings some clarity to Song’s situation
 

stepson_and_toe

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FYI CBS just reported that President Trump signed an EO in the Navy Locker room allowing players who play at the academies to play professionally and not have to serve.
Perhaps this brings some clarity to Song’s situation
"Athletes must get approval from the Pentagon chief and it requires them to eventually fulfill their military obligation or repay the costs of their education." Or in trump's words: "to make a fortune and after you're all finished with your professional career, you'll go and you'll serve and everybody's thrilled."

Song is still up in the air as there is no indication of when the costs must be paid back. He has a bonus, which probably won't cover the cost, and if he doesn't make the majors or gets injured to an extent that he cannot fulfill his active duty commitment, what happens?

Edit: I should add that Song might want to become a fighter pilot (his younger brother is training as one in the Marines) or he might want to continue what he started when he applied to the US Naval Academy.
 
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JimD

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'Becoming a Navy fighter pilot' is not a bad fallback option if his professional baseball career fizzles out (I'm assuming of course that the door would open to that two or three years from now if he decides to leave baseball, I have no idea if that is true).
 

Cesar Crespo

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"Athletes must get approval from the Pentagon chief and it requires them to eventually fulfill their military obligation or repay the costs of their education." Or in trump's words: "to make a fortune and after you're all finished with your professional career, you'll go and you'll serve and everybody's thrilled."

Song is still up in the air as there is no indication of when the costs must be paid back. He has a bonus, which probably won't cover the cost, and if he doesn't make the majors or gets injured to an extent that he cannot fulfill his active duty commitment, what happens?

Edit: I should add that Song might want to become a fighter pilot (his younger brother is training as one in the Marines) or he might want to continue what he started when he applied to the US Naval Academy.
I'm sure the Sox would gladly pay off his college bills if it meant Song could continue his baseball career. He's owes the Navy about $1 million. He was drafted in the 4th round largely because of concerns his baseball career would be delayed.

Seems like a no brainer for the Sox or any team to pay off the bill of prospects like Song. If the only thing preventing him from pitching for Salem is money, he'll be pitching for Salem.
 

joe dokes

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There's something discomfiting about allowing academy graduates to pay the military not to serve as planned. Perhaps the PR is good. I'd like to believe that the PR is good. But for whom?
 

ookami7m

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The idea behind the athletes going to play in the pros after doing academy time has always been as a "recruiting effort" - where someone who goes to the pros will consistently be commented on being a graduate of said military academy and thus play into the ability to recruit more student. Caleb Campbell played for the Detroit Lions under this kind of program

Cadets accepted into the program, "will owe two years of active service in the Army, during which time they will be allowed to play their sport in the player-development systems of their respective organizations and be assigned to recruiting stations. If they remain in professional sports following those two years, they will be provided the option of buying out the remaining three years of their active-duty commitment in exchange for six years of reserve time."
- source his wikipedia page
 

P'tucket rhymes with...

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There's something discomfiting about allowing academy graduates to pay the military not to serve as planned. Perhaps the PR is good. I'd like to believe that the PR is good. But for whom?
Mostly for the service academies, probably. It probably influences the decisions of a small number of applicants, but the academies would no longer be a place where athletic careers go to die (or suffer a significant injury).

Not so great for the military, though, in the instance when an athlete does their hitch after a pro career without repaying the tuition. A 30-32 year old ensign is a pretty poor ROI for the navy. I wonder if it would be preferable to have the athletes commit to reserve or public relations duties in the off-season for a designated number of years in lieu of service following the sports career.
 

nvalvo

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I'm sure the Sox would gladly pay off his college bills if it meant Song could continue his baseball career. He's owes the Navy about $1 million. He was drafted in the 4th round largely because of concerns his baseball career would be delayed.

Seems like a no brainer for the Sox or any team to pay off the bill of prospects like Song. If the only thing preventing him from pitching for Salem is money, he'll be pitching for Salem.
Are they allowed to? Doesn't that circumvent the draft bonus cap? He accepted a $100k signing bonus, and the whole draft bonus budget was calculated based on that. The team can't just then give him $1m. Maybe they can lend him the money.

If a team signed an early pick for a fragment of slot, freeing up their budget for later, and then we learned that they had bought a couple houses for the prospect's parents and siblings, the league would sanction them.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Are they allowed to? Doesn't that circumvent the draft bonus cap? He accepted a $100k signing bonus, and the whole draft bonus budget was calculated based on that. The team can't just then give him $1m. Maybe they can lend him the money.

If a team signed an early pick for a fragment of slot, freeing up their budget for later, and then we learned that they had bought a couple houses for the prospect's parents and siblings, the league would sanction them.

That's a good question and one I don't know the answer to. I just assumed "paying for their education" wouldn't be a hold up because it's bad optics. I know further education has been part of contracts in the past though.

All I can find is this, which isn't really relevant in this case since he already went to college. https://www.mlb.com/official-information/scholarship/player-guide-2017

I think it would be a PR nightmare for the MLB to block such a move. I'm not sure how they could really. Even if they did, I'm sure someone like Nike would step up with the money. The $1 million will not be an issue at all. It's worth in PR alone and if he does have a successful career, it's a great for everyone involved because it's a cool story.

$1 million is a drop in the bucket when it comes to sports. Song is definitely worth the risk.
 

stepson_and_toe

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The idea behind the athletes going to play in the pros after doing academy time has always been as a "recruiting effort" - where someone who goes to the pros will consistently be commented on being a graduate of said military academy and thus play into the ability to recruit more student. Caleb Campbell played for the Detroit Lions under this kind of program
An earlier example (albeit one with some other issues), is David Robinson, who was two inches taller than the height limit at 6'8" when he was admitted to the Naval Academy with a waiver from its superintendent. He continued growing and considered dropping out before he reached the point when he would be required to serve on active duty. Because of his height, he might not have been able to serve on a ship as a line officer or even get a commission but the Secretary of the Navy allowed him to be commissioned as a staff officer in the Naval Reserve in the Civil Engineer Corps where he served his two years. He was regularly featured in recruiting materials. paraphrasing Wiki

I saw him one day in a local bar near the end of his college career; he was meeting a suit and I remember wondering what the Navy was going to do with him. I'm 6'4" and had been on a number of active naval vessels (destroyers to a nuclear-powered carrier) when I was in the service and I thought about the bulkhead doors that came up to mid-shin and down to nose-level on me. I wouldn't have survived.

Anyway, why was he accepted by the Naval Academy in the first place if not to play basketball?

addendum: One can go back a little farther with Napoleon McCallum, who graduated from the Naval Academy in December 1985 after receiving an extra year of eligibility from the NCAA because of an injury in the second game in his senior year. After staying at the academy for a while as a recruiter, he was assigned to an amphibious assault ship out of Long Beach. Because "the military does not prohibit outside employment that does not interfere with service," he played for the Los Angeles Raiders that year. The next year he was moved to another ship and had to give up his NFL career until he finished his active duty (he believed the move was because of the attention received from playing for the Raiders). Wiki paraphrased again
 

Xander Betts Jr.

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Despite the recent policy changes, Noah Song's waiver request to defer his service was officially denied. Reason for the denial appears to be some combination of a) he already graduated and the new policy wasn't in effect yet, and b) the new policy states that athletes deferring service won't be made officers upon graduation, but Song is already an officer as of his graduation last year.

https://www.capitalgazette.com/sports/navy/ac-cs-noah-song-denied-1218-20191217-ukpi6njz3jbvdg4csvalcgcpbe-story.html
This really sucks. I guess I see why it was denied, but it seems a better solution could have been reached.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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I'm sure the Sox would gladly pay off his college bills if it meant Song could continue his baseball career. He's owes the Navy about $1 million. He was drafted in the 4th round largely because of concerns his baseball career would be delayed.

Seems like a no brainer for the Sox or any team to pay off the bill of prospects like Song. If the only thing preventing him from pitching for Salem is money, he'll be pitching for Salem.
How does he owe that much? Just out of curiosity.
 

shaggydog2000

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Total cost of attendance at top universities is calculated to be pretty far beyond what they charge for tuition. MIT claims their cost is actually double what they ask for in tuition:

https://sfs.mit.edu/undergraduate-students/the-cost-of-attendance/annual-student-budget/
So that puts total cost including housing, etc at about 125k a year. I don't know how the military would add everything up for their top universities and the cost of the additional training beyond the university stuff they do, but I could see it hitting 500k. And to pay that after taxes you'd need to get close to a $ 1 mil bonus, right?
 

daltonsoxfan

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This is unfortunate. If he was a logistician or a signal officer he might have had a better chance - but flight school is different - much tougher to qualify - and once qualified the Navy wants to get their money's worth.