Down on the Farm, 2019 edition

bosox79

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There's more than hitting to consider when deciding how to value a starting OFer. As discussed in the assigning blame thread, the OF defense this year has shown indications of taking a step backwards from 2018. Given the likely age impacts on defensive range for the entire starting trio of OFers to begin with, making the entire situation even worse by removing JBJ for Rusney without any real assurance that his bat will actually be measurably better than JBJ's seems like an awful idea to me.

In an era of uppercut swings and infield shifting, it seems to me that OF defense is not the best place to value offense exclusively.* This isn't 2001-2007 anymore, one-dimensional OFers are more of a liability than they ever were in my mind, therefore carrying JBJ the entire player for ~$12M is a different value proposition than just thinking of carrying JBJ's offensive production. This is particularly true relative to some other generic/borderline MLB OFer (like Rusney Castillo) who *might* match his relatively underwhelming batting line, while almost certainly failing to maintain the current level of OF defense in 2019, such as it is.

* I tried to find MLB-wide totals of GB%/LD%/FB% to back up my thinking with some actual data, but fangraphs doesn't seem to want to allow me to get league totals of the batted ball stats, only team totals. As a result, I'm stuck with trying to use Red Sox-specific data to try to put anything of substance behind this thought. Specifically, in terms of GB%, over the last 9 seasons (2011-2019), 4 of the 5 lowest GB%s are from the 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019 Red Sox. I'm using this as a shaky proxy for the idea that the relative value of IF defense is declining, which I am blaming on the combination of IF shifts and uppercut swings, and am therefore concluding that the relative value of OF defense is increasing.
I wasn't valuing offense exclusively, I just think he's redundant on this team. Would you give JBJ $12-13 million a year to be your LF? I also wasn't advocating for Rusney. I was doing the exact opposite. I'd rather have JBJ than Rusney.

Quoting myself from earlier in the thread: I'd guess JBJ gets similar money to Rusney, and that the Redsox could do better than both at a cheaper price point given Betts or Benny can play CF.
 

bosox79

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Could a mod move all the JBJ talk though? It's a good discussion but it's not the thread for it.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
* I tried to find MLB-wide totals of GB%/LD%/FB% to back up my thinking with some actual data, but fangraphs doesn't seem to want to allow me to get league totals of the batted ball stats, only team totals.
Go to the Leaders page, then click the League Stats tab at the top, then Batted Ball.

LD%/GB%/FB% for MLB is 21.4/42.9/35.7. FB% has gone up about 2 percentage points at the expense of GB% over the past 5 years (2015 numbers were 20.9/45.3/33.8).
 

richgedman'sghost

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Speaking of Rusney, can anyone who has PawSox season tickets or watches them regularly comment on his outfield defense. I don't trust minor league defense totals and Rusney's brief cameos at Fenway were so long ago as to being meaningless. Just wondering about anyone's first hand observations about his defense. My faulty memory is that Rusney was not a butcher in the outfield but also not a JBJ gold glover.
 

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The Sox *can't* eat money without adding AAV. Unless the Orioles or Tigers decide they actually want to pay him his contract, he's just going to have to play out the string as a wildly well-paid AAA OF.
FWIW, he's only got one more year at this point, so eating a bit of the contract to move him wouldn't necessarily cost that much. Would reducing him to a $6M player (and adding ~5M to the payroll) be worth it for the right return? Not sure it can be dismissed out of hand. The bigger question mark in that scenario isn't whether to eat the money, it's whether there's actually a trade partner out there at all.
 

Plympton91

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As far as getting a reasonable facsimile of JBJ for a fraction of the cost, keep in mind that Adam Jones signed a 1-year, $3 million contract with Arizona mid-way through spring training last year. I’m not suggesting the could or should sign exactly him for next year, but it does illustrate how devalued veteran outfielders are in this environment. Look what the Yankees are getting from Cameron Maybin for almost nothing this year as well.


In the mid-range free agents who are more offensively oriented, who might be in the $12-million or less range, you’ve got Corey Dickerson, Lonnie Chisenhall, and Avisail Garcia.

And of course you’ll add to that a half dozen intriguing nontenders or arb-eligible players other teams don’t want to pay arb prices to.

JBJ is a proud man, who would probably choose to go elsewhere if the Red Sox offered a pay cut. But they certainly should not offer him more than a token raise. And if he insists on going to arbitration after that offer, they should just nontender him and tell him to come back to them if he decides their offer was fair after all.
 

Brohamer of the Gods

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Speaking of Rusney, can anyone who has PawSox season tickets or watches them regularly comment on his outfield defense. I don't trust minor league defense totals and Rusney's brief cameos at Fenway were so long ago as to being meaningless. Just wondering about anyone's first hand observations about his defense. My faulty memory is that Rusney was not a butcher in the outfield but also not a JBJ gold glover.
He's fine in the outfield, with a strong arm. I have seen him mostly in RF this year. He would be a competent defensive corner outfielder in Boston by my eyes

The thing I have noticed about Rusney over the past few years in Pawtucket is he has all of the tools, but he doesn't seem to completely understand the game. Although he seems to be gaining in that respect too, to be fair. For example, I have seen him picked off twice which is a lot seeing as I only go to six or seven games a year. On Monday however he stole second entirely on the pitcher, taking off on the first move to the plate.

But even money aside, I would not see Rusney as a replacement for JBJ. At best Rusney would be a 4th outfielder.
 

chrisfont9

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You'd only have to replace his bat and I don't think that would be hard. Chavis in LF would be just as productive offensively and they could sign a 1b. Or they could go with Dalbec.

I don't know how people can justify spending $12 mil on JBJ. He's not worth the money. Even if he was the best option, the money is better spend elsewhere. Just get 80-90% of his production for 20% of the cost.
He's at minimum a 2-bWAR player, which puts you at about $18m if you believe in the linear cost per win valuations. At peak he was a 5-win player. So yeah, $12m is a decent price for what he's done.
 

bosox79

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He's at minimum a 2-bWAR player, which puts you at about $18m if you believe in the linear cost per win valuations. At peak he was a 5-win player. So yeah, $12m is a decent price for what he's done.
Do you think it's linear? I can't see any team signing a 1 b-WAR player for $9 million a year. Maybe I'm completely underestimating how hard it would be to find a player who could put up a 2-bWAR over the course of 500+ PA. Brock Holt offers similar value to JBJ and no one wants to sign him for 1/$12.

Have there been comparable players to Bradley that have hit FA the last few years? What is the normal going rate for 30 year old 2 WAR players on the FA market? I get JBJ isn't a FA, but that should work in the Sox favor and I don't think it does. I think JBJ would get less in FA than arbitration. I could be very wrong.

FWIW, he's only got one more year at this point, so eating a bit of the contract to move him wouldn't necessarily cost that much. Would reducing him to a $6M player (and adding ~5M to the payroll) be worth it for the right return? Not sure it can be dismissed out of hand. The bigger question mark in that scenario isn't whether to eat the money, it's whether there's actually a trade partner out there at all.
Trading him to another team puts his full salary on the book where it's not on the books at all right now. Reducing Castillo to a $6 million player for another team would actually add $6 million to the Sox payroll. Add in the luxury tax and it's even more.

There is ZERO chance Rusney gets traded unless another team basically takes on his full contract.


edit: It's kind of sad because Rusney is an MLB quality player but he has the poison pill of a contract.

double edit: Derp, you noted it adds payroll.
 
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jon abbey

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It's kind of sad because Rusney is an MLB quality player
Is he actually, though? He is a 32 year old corner outfielder with a .777 OPS, which looks like it is below average for the International League this year. Am I missing something?
 

bosox79

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Is he actually, though? He is a 32 year old corner outfielder with a .777 OPS, which looks like it is below average for the International League this year. Am I missing something?
He can play all 3 OF positions, has some power and some speed. I'm talking 4th/5th OF type. He would have at least been given a chance if not for the contract.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Is he actually, though? He is a 32 year old corner outfielder with a .777 OPS, which looks like it is below average for the International League this year. Am I missing something?
If not for his contract, he might be a fourth outfielder somewhere in MLB. I'm not sure he's a regular starter for anyone in the majors. It is wishful thinking that he'd represent even a lateral move from JBJ. Castillo's minor league OBP is comparable to JBJ's major league OBP and it's much more reliant on his batting average, which is sure to suffer in the majors. I'd be surprised if he could sustain a .700 OPS against big league pitching and defenses.
 

chrisfont9

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Do you think it's linear? I can't see any team signing a 1 b-WAR player for $9 million a year. Maybe I'm completely underestimating how hard it would be to find a player who could put up a 2-bWAR over the course of 500+ PA. Brock Holt offers similar value to JBJ and no one wants to sign him for 1/$12.
Holt is an 8-win player over 8 seasons, Bradley is a 14-win player in parts of 7 seasons. He's roughly twice as valuable as Holt at any given moment. As to whether anyone would pay JBJ $12m, if he gets to 25 home runs this season (with a warm-ish September), I think so. Bradley's defensive value at a key, somewhat scarce, position isn't going anywhere and his production is hardly nonexistent.
 

chrisfont9

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If not for his contract, he might be a fourth outfielder somewhere in MLB. I'm not sure he's a regular starter for anyone in the majors. It is wishful thinking that he'd represent even a lateral move from JBJ. Castillo's minor league OBP is comparable to JBJ's major league OBP and it's much more reliant on his batting average, which is sure to suffer in the majors. I'd be surprised if he could sustain a .700 OPS against big league pitching and defenses.
In the abstract it's possible to imagine this, but in reality, every team has guys who can do what he does. Loads of them, with more of a ceiling and probably cost-controlled as well. Bryce Brentz is at a .771 OPS and his market value is nonexistent.
 

chawson

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If the Sox have an inkling that Mookie would be more inclined to sign an extension as a center fielder, then I’d be up for moving JBJ to grant that wish (and white-knuckle it whenever Mookie has to make a play near the wall).

But in that case, you’d still need a CF-caliber outfielder to play right. Maybe Puig, Avi Garcia or Ozuna fit that bill, but imo if you can’t get one of them it isn’t worth the defensive downgrade.

Either way, Bradley is absolutely worth tending a contract.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
As far as getting a reasonable facsimile of JBJ for a fraction of the cost, keep in mind that Adam Jones signed a 1-year, $3 million contract with Arizona mid-way through spring training last year. I’m not suggesting the could or should sign exactly him for next year, but it does illustrate how devalued veteran outfielders are in this environment. Look what the Yankees are getting from Cameron Maybin for almost nothing this year as well.
The reason why both these guys were available for a song is that they were past 30 (in Jones' case, way past) and had been essentially replacement-level the previous year (in Jones' case, the previous two). In that scenario, you're gambling short money on a late-career rebound year; as those two cases show, sometimes you win that bet, sometimes you lose, but I'm guessing the success rate is way below 50%. A comparable FA in 2020 would be somebody like Leonys Martin or Carlos Gomez or Matt Kemp. If the Sox non-tender JBJ so they can sign a guy like that, they're basically taking a gamble where the payoff is a modest payroll savings ($5-10M-ish), and the most likely outcome is that they are a worse team, with a modest chance that it's a wash and a very slight chance it makes them better. Doesn't seem like JH or DD's style, but I suppose it's possible.

EDIT: Forgot Martin is committed to play in Japan next year.
 

bosox79

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Holt is an 8-win player over 8 seasons, Bradley is a 14-win player in parts of 7 seasons. He's roughly twice as valuable as Holt at any given moment. As to whether anyone would pay JBJ $12m, if he gets to 25 home runs this season (with a warm-ish September), I think so. Bradley's defensive value at a key, somewhat scarce, position isn't going anywhere and his production is hardly nonexistent.
Fair enough. I tend to have recency bias and it's been a lot closer in 2018 and 2019 despite Holt having considerably less playing time. It's very possible if Holt was a full time player, he wouldn't be able to maintain his pace. He's been around 500 PA 2 times before (2014: 492 PA, 2015: 509 PA) and put up up 2.1 and 2.6 WAR seasons but that's too long ago and a few too many injuries ago to really matter. Although ironically enough, the last 2 years have easily been his best offensively.


In the abstract it's possible to imagine this, but in reality, every team has guys who can do what he does. Loads of them, with more of a ceiling and probably cost-controlled as well. Bryce Brentz is at a .771 OPS and his market value is nonexistent.
Bryce Brentz can't play CF. It's very possible Rusney wouldn't have stuck around anyway but he would have at least gotten some PA in 2017 where he slashed .314/.350/.507 if he had a minor league contract. He did get injured August 17th so it's possible he may have been called up but I doubt it. From May 1st to August 17th, he hit .325/.361/.542 with a .338 BAbip in 296 PA with 13 HR, 11sb/1cs. That gets a call up.

Bryce Brentz also shot his career in the foot by shooting his foot.
 

Plympton91

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The reason why both these guys were available for a song is that they were past 30 (in Jones' case, way past) and had been essentially replacement-level the previous year (in Jones' case, the previous two). In that scenario, you're gambling short money on a late-career rebound year; as those two cases show, sometimes you win that bet, sometimes you lose, but I'm guessing the success rate is way below 50%. A comparable FA in 2020 would be somebody like Leonys Martin or Carlos Gomez or Matt Kemp. If the Sox non-tender JBJ so they can sign a guy like that, they're basically taking a gamble where the payoff is a modest payroll savings ($5-10M-ish), and the most likely outcome is that they are a worse team, with a modest chance that it's a wash and a very slight chance it makes them better. Doesn't seem like JH or DD's style, but I suppose it's possible.

EDIT: Forgot Martin is committed to play in Japan next year.
Taking Jones only as an example again, I agree it would be a downgrade from Bradley to Jones. But then you’d have $9-$10 million to spend somewhere else, or to not lose another 10 spots in the draft plus international signing money. So, it’s not a straight up trade of Bradley for Jones. It’s Bradley for Jones and a good 4th starter, or Bradley for Jones, the extra draft money that comes from picking 10 spots higher, and the extra international money that isn’t forfeited for being over the luxury tax thresholds.
 

chrisfont9

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Bryce Brentz can't play CF. It's very possible Rusney wouldn't have stuck around anyway but he would have at least gotten some PA in 2017 where he slashed .314/.350/.507 if he had a minor league contract. He did get injured August 17th so it's possible he may have been called up but I doubt it. From May 1st to August 17th, he hit .325/.361/.542 with a .338 BAbip in 296 PA with 13 HR, 11sb/1cs. That gets a call up.

Bryce Brentz also shot his career in the foot by shooting his foot.
Ha, well maybe. I wasn't thinking too specifically about Brentz as anything besides just how expendable a minor league .770 OPS can look. With some defensive prowess I suppose it's not a deal-killer.
I wish Rusney well but he looks like a career minor leaguer to me.
 

bosox79

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Ha, well maybe. I wasn't thinking too specifically about Brentz as anything besides just how expendable a minor league .770 OPS can look. With some defensive prowess I suppose it's not a deal-killer.
I wish Rusney well but he looks like a career minor leaguer to me.
Definitely, especially this year where offense is inflated in AAA because of the new ball. If you have a .770 OPS in AAA, you better offer value in other parts of the game and theoretically Rusney does that. You could also argue he got his chance in 2016 and failed. I guess it's really more semantics on what an MLB quality player is. I consider Josh Smith and guys who get call ups/a cup of coffee in September to be MLB quality players so the bar isn't very high. They aren't quality MLB players though. I just think Rusney would have a few more PA if he didn't have the huge contract, even if it's like 142 more scattered over 3 seasons.

Also re JBJ, he's been pretty meh for his last 166 PA. I don't say that as a bad thing because players go thru stretches. I say that because normally he's either OPSing 1.000 over a stretch of 150+ PA or OPSing under .500 for 150+ PA. He's hit .193/.278/.413 during those 166 PA. Bad/mediocre, not historically bad.
 

The Gray Eagle

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Chad Jennings in the Athletic with a nice article on the Red Sox amateur scouting team and how it's done a really great, underrated job over the past decade or so:

"Already this season, the amateur scouting department has seen nine of its selections make big league debuts... The Red Sox already have gotten 22.5 percent of their picks from 2007 to 2016 to the big leagues, and 10 percent already have a positive career WAR of 0.1 or higher. "
 

bosox79

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Mata had a pretty good game today. 7.0 ip, 1 hit, 0r, 5bb/9k. Feltman finished the game going 2.0 ip, 2 hits, 0bb/4k.

Denyi Reyes went 7.0 ip, 3 hits, 2 er, 0bb/9k yesterday.

Chavis went 2/4 with 2 HR yesterday.

Groome went 2.0 ip, 3 hits, 1r/1er, 1bb/3k today in the NYPL. He's now had 3 games and has put up a line of 4.0 ip, 5 hits, 1r/1er, 1bb/6k.
 

Brohamer of the Gods

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Woof, the umpires at McCoy are ready for the winter. Just called the infield fly rule on a flare the second baseman failed to make an over the shoulder catch on about 75 feet into the outfield.
 

RoDaddy

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Some positive notes as the season winds down:
Mata with a brilliant 7 IP, 9 SO shutout yesterday in Portland. I'm starting to get the feeling he's inconsistent, brilliant one outing and then wild and ineffective another. Maybe it's just his being so young.

McGrath's AAA debut also a success after his brilliant year in AA

Casas came up big in his Salem debut with a double and single. Real excited about this guy's future

Chatham also keeps hitting, although it's a pretty hollow .300 with no power or OBP

Even Feltman was dominant in relief yesterday.
 

Plympton91

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Much to my surprise, Salem somehow managed to make the playoffs, and they’re winning. So if you want to keep following one of the Red Sox true legitimate prospects, Tristan Casas, he’s playing for Salarm for a few more days.

Lowell also made the playoffs, and Song has had another fairly dominant 3 inning 1 H, 1 BB, 6 K, outing so far, but he did give up a run.

Lowell being in the playoffs is good, because it may also mean we get 1 or 2 more starts out of Groome this year.

Was just looking at Feltman’s numbers and seeing that he only pitched 51 innings all year. That just doesn’t seem optimal for someone they’re so high on. Would’ve like to have seen them manage his outings to get more innings. Something like just having him pitch 2 innings every fourth day (2 IP, off, side session, off, 2 IP) no matter what. Which would get you about 70 innings and 35 games.
 
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RoDaddy

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Yusniel Padron-Artilles with what might be the Sox minor league performance of the year! Six innings, one hit, no walks and 14 SO's including the FIRST TWELVE BETTERS HE FACED! He relieved Groome who went what looks like 3 quality innings
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Chatham also keeps hitting, although it's a pretty hollow .300 with no power or OBP
What does Chatham look like to people at this point? Is he more of a Jack Wilson or a Nick Punto? (I.e., glove-first starting SS or utility guy?)

It'll be intriguing to see whether the Sox try to shop him or work him into their own big league mix when he's ready (which I think is now looking like about this time next year?).

Given that Chatham appears to profile as a better defensive SS than Xander, is there any possibility the Sox try to move Xander over to 2B (or possibly to LF) to make room for him?
 

bosox79

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What does Chatham look like to people at this point? Is he more of a Jack Wilson or a Nick Punto? (I.e., glove-first starting SS or utility guy?)

It'll be intriguing to see whether the Sox try to shop him or work him into their own big league mix when he's ready (which I think is now looking like about this time next year?).

Given that Chatham appears to profile as a better defensive SS than Xander, is there any possibility the Sox try to move Xander over to 2B (or possibly to LF) to make room for him?
Nick Punto. At best Chatham is an average-slightly above average SS. There were questions whether he'd even stick at SS a year or so ago. I don't think Jack Wilson ever had those questions.

CJ Chatham seems like the RHB version of Tzu Wei Lin to me. Except Lin is the better SS.
 
Aug 11, 2019
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Rusney Castillo has told Sports Illustrated that he won't opt out of his $13.5M contract with the Red Sox (surprise, surprise). He lives in an apartment in Boston, convinced that he will return to the Red Sox and the majors, meanwhile he commuted to Rhode Island for home games.
 

billy ashley

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I believe Chatham has always been seen as a solid to good shortstop. Questions as to whether or not he'd have to move, if I remember correctly, were always driven by the fact that he's huge for a SS and that he's never been able to stay on the field (until 18/19).

Given his size and athletic ability, there has long been a hope that Chatham would grow into some power. That remains the tool that will define whether or not he's a major league starting position player or something else (up and down depth guy/ maybe utility player).He's averagish in terms of contact. If he hits .260 with a decent but not amazing BB rate and fewer than 10 homers a year... than yeah, its hard to see him stick. If that power develops, than he's a starting SS.

The trouble is that he missed a ton of development time due to injuries and isn't exactly young.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Rusney Castillo has told Sports Illustrated that he won't opt out of his $13.5M contract with the Red Sox (surprise, surprise). He lives in an apartment in Boston, convinced that he will return to the Red Sox and the majors, meanwhile he commuted to Rhode Island for home games.
There's a rather bleak dark comedy screenplay in there somewhere. Or a reality TV show.
 

chawson

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I believe Chatham has always been seen as a solid to good shortstop. Questions as to whether or not he'd have to move, if I remember correctly, were always driven by the fact that he's huge for a SS and that he's never been able to stay on the field (until 18/19).

Given his size and athletic ability, there has long been a hope that Chatham would grow into some power. That remains the tool that will define whether or not he's a major league starting position player or something else (up and down depth guy/ maybe utility player).He's averagish in terms of contact. If he hits .260 with a decent but not amazing BB rate and fewer than 10 homers a year... than yeah, its hard to see him stick. If that power develops, than he's a starting SS.

The trouble is that he missed a ton of development time due to injuries and isn't exactly young.
Maybe a bit too convenient a comparison but Chatham seems a little like Marrero, whom he doesn’t compare favorably to at the same point in the curve.

Age 24
Chatham - AA - .297/.333/.403 in 376 PA, 4.8 BB%, 17.6 K%, .330 wOBA (2019)
Marrero - AA - .291/.371/.433 in 307 PA , 11.1 BB%, 18.6 K%, .364 wOBA (2014)
 

johnnywayback

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Chatham seems like trade bait to me. If the hit tool develops a little, he can be a second-division starting shortstop. If it doesn't, he's kind of an awkward fit as a utility guy given that so much of his value is wrapped up in his ability to play a competent SS. I would think that proposition is more interesting to a higher-variance-seeking team than it is to a team like the Red Sox (who have an entrenched starting SS and no shortage of utility IF options).
 

The Gray Eagle

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If Holt comes back, the Red Sox will have 3 utility infielder/second basemen who bat left-handed, with Holt, Marco and Two-Way Lin. Even if Holt leaves, the other two would be the top candidates for utility IF and both are lefty hitters.

That is weird, as most utility guys bat RH. It's the main reason that we've had to endure Owings on the roster, because he is RH and Chavis is hurt.

Chatham is a RH hitter, so if he is playing second base and becomes good defensively there, he could have a role on the team next year as a utility guy, playing some second against lefties.

Chavis is a RH who can play second base, but I don't think they view him as a guy who they want playing a lot of second base, more of a guy who can cover it if necessary. He never played second in the minors until he got 7 games there this year before they brought him up.
 

chawson

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Chavis is a RH who can play second base, but I don't think they view him as a guy who they want playing a lot of second base, more of a guy who can cover it if necessary. He never played second in the minors until he got 7 games there this year before they brought him up.
That’s too bad, because his bat doesn’t project to be a very good fit for first base, and his glove doesn’t make up for it. (Plus, at 5’10”, he’d be the shortest starting first baseman by an inch or two.)

Chavis’s upside to me seems like Jonathan Schoop. A low average, decent power guy who can play an adequate second base in an era where the position doesn’t get as much action as it used to. Austin Riley is another possible comp, but that guy plays a solid third.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I disagree with the idea that the organization doesn't like Chavis at second. He played more at 1B primarily because both Moreland and Pearce were on the IL. After Moreland returned (July 23), in 20 team games, he made just two more starts at 1B (3 total appearances there) against 9 starts at 2B (13 total appearances) and 1 start (2 appearances) at 3B before he hit the IL himself.

Chavis was certainly adequate at 2B this year. SSS applies, but his metrics there weren't ugly. I don't think he should be written off as a regular option at second unless he takes a nosedive defensively next season.
 

sean1562

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this team desperately needs to develop some starting pitching. I really hope Mata and Groome can put it together to be serviceable major league players. ERod is probably gone once he can leave
 

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this team desperately needs to develop some starting pitching. I really hope Mata and Groome can put it together to be serviceable major league players. ERod is probably gone once he can leave
Perhaps this goes in the EROD thread but why do you assume he is gone thr moment free agency hits?
 

sean1562

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when his deal is up the red sox will have $79 mil invested in three pitchers on their starting rotation. I doubt that they will be in a financial position to give ERod a deal he might like. If he pitches like this the next two seasons, he is looking at a pretty nice contract at age 29. we cant just keep pumping huge money into our rotation, it is really critical for us to develop some cost-controlled starters these next two years or so
 

bosox79

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Dec 22, 2002
10,338
when his deal is up the red sox will have $79 mil invested in three pitchers on their starting rotation. I doubt that they will be in a financial position to give ERod a deal he might like. If he pitches like this the next two seasons, he is looking at a pretty nice contract at age 29. we cant just keep pumping huge money into our rotation, it is really critical for us to develop some cost-controlled starters these next two years or so
And if they are smart, they wouldn't invest big money in him anyway because of the very fact he'll be 29. Price and Sale have worked out so well.
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
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Jul 10, 2007
18,291
The wrong side of the bridge....
And if they are smart, they wouldn't invest big money in him anyway because of the very fact he'll be 29. Price and Sale have worked out so well.
Price hasn't worked out that badly. We've gotten about $85M in value from him while spending $120M. That's not real good, especially for the first four years of a deal, but it's not a disaster.

The problem is that if you commit to never giving sizable contracts to FA pitchers, then you have to become very good at developing pitchers, or else you're doomed to patching and toggling each year from 3rd-tier FAs and scrap heap gambles. That can work now and then; you could argue that it's worked for the Athletics this year. But it's not a high-percentage strategy, and the FO would get crucified for it in this town. We think we hate big-ticket FA pitcher contracts, but we hate whiffing on them even more.
 

sean1562

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Sep 17, 2011
2,422
the record of this team developing starting pitching is really bad. We do a great job with position players, but who have we developed over the last twenty years for the rotation? I am hesitant to include ERod since we got him as a AA pitcher, but even with him, is the entire list Lester, Bucholz, and ERod? pushing it back 20 years, I guess Derek Lowe? But idk how highly touted he was when he was traded here since I was 7 years old.
 

bosox79

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Dec 22, 2002
10,338
Yes. That Chris Sale age 29 year worked out so poorly.
Yeah because clearly my point was worrying about 1 season and not 2020-2024 where we owe the guy $145 million. The Redsox have to start developing their own pitching or they will have to do a "reset" every couple years because elite pitching on the FA market gets paid far more than it's actually worth. What long term contracts for starting pitchers 29+ have worked out for the team? People cry about Jon Lester but letting Lester go was the correct move. Or they can just keep on signing these guys and we can watch them fall apart and get injured 2 or 3 years into the contract.