Drew vs Tom vs Time

[Super Nomario]

Uh, why? Before 2006 their quarterbacks were losers like Aaron Brooks and Bobby Hebert.

It seems pretty straight forward that a dome that has no risk of adverse wind or precipitation conditions is going to benefit QB a great deal. It's not about the average game. It's that Brees doesn't ever need to worry about playing in conditions that teams like the Pats / Bills / Bengals/ Packers / etc need to a couple times a year. It's also easy to game plan a team around throwing it 40 times a game when you can just look at the schedule and have 100% confidence the conditions won't be a factor.

I agree with all that. My statement was in the context of the Superdome having some sort of special QB-enhancing properties beyond that of a normal domed stadium. You made the comparison to Todd Helton upthread; I think that's unfair because there's only one Coors Field while in the NFL more than a quarter of the teams play in domes or retractable roof stadiums. Brees has a significant advantage but hardly a unique one.

 

[Marciano490]

If you’re really going to get down to it, isn’t the whole division (NFC South) favorable to QBs? All the teams are warm weather and/or dome teams. It’s not just that Brady plays home games at Foxboro, he also plays away every year in NY and Buffalo.

 

[Time to Mo Vaughn]

5 games into the season and neither player is slowing down:

Brees 148 of 190 (77.9%) for 1658 Yards, 11 TDs, 0 INTs and a 122.3 Rating
Brady 121 of 179 (67.6%) for 1259 Yards, 12 TDs, 6 INTs and a 96.1 Rating

Brees just passed Peyton for the all time lead in passing yards. Brady looks like he'll need to come back next season to pass Peyton and Favre. Brady temporarily took a 1 TD lead on Brees with his 500th TD pass this past weekend and is now 8 shy of Favre and 39 shy of Peyton.

Including playoff numbers, Brady is now at 571 TDs to Peyton's 579 to Brees' 528. Brady has 77,644 yards to Manning's 79,279 and Brees' 76,312.

 

[bsj]

3 of those damn INTs are deflections (and at least 1 cost a TD)...13 and 3 looks so much better

 

[EricFeczko]

5 games into the season and neither player is slowing down:

Brees 148 of 190 (77.9%) for 1658 Yards, 11 TDs, 0 INTs and a 122.3 Rating
Brady 121 of 179 (67.6%) for 1259 Yards, 12 TDs, 6 INTs and a 96.1 Rating

Brees just passed Peyton for the all time lead in passing yards. Brady looks like he'll need to come back next season to pass Peyton and Favre. Brady temporarily took a 1 TD lead on Brees with his 500th TD pass this past weekend and is now 8 shy of Favre and 39 shy of Peyton.

Including playoff numbers, Brady is now at 571 TDs to Peyton's 579 to Brees' 528. Brady has 77,644 yards to Manning's 79,279 and Brees' 76,312.

The conventional wisdom is plain wrong. This idea that QB's magically breakdown later in their career is driven more by randomness within a single season than a downward trajectory. Especially for QB's with 10+ years experience.


http://www.advancedfootballanalytics.com/index.php/home/research/payroll-personnel/93-how-quarterbacks-age

One of the more interesting things in the numbers was that the final year of a QB's career, regardless of age, is usually pretty bad, but not necessarily worse than the usual year-to-year variation in any individual QB's resume. In fact, the final year of a QB's career, on average, represents a decline of -0.75 AYPA. This is far worse than any one year of average decline due to age--actually equivalent to about 6 years of decline. To me, this suggests that natural variance is helping end many QB careers.

In fact, if you simply remove the very last season of each QB's career from the data, age-related decline virtually disappears.

The other form of decline is injuries/surgeries, such as in the case of Peyton Manning.

 

[GoDa]

I remember Dan Marino being a QB who it felt like lost it pretty quick.

One season he seemed to still had a prime-ish quality arm, then the next he was a crafty vet throwing Manning-esque lollipops. I remember it being pretty brutal listening to the announcers, in denial, raving about how he still had it on any of the most mediocre throws.

 

[Papelbon's Poutine]

Didn’t he have a few significant injuries right before that?

 

[m0ckduck]

Remember those features like this one that had Mo Lewis among the most important figures in Pats dynasty history? By the same token, Miami's medical team could well have appeared in this list. Imagine if both these QBs had been playing in the same division. Consider the enhanced GOAT status rivalry and contemplate how much more fraught the Pats hold on AFC East domination would have been in some years.

 

[johnmd20]

Smith runs out of bounds. GJGE.

 

[Kliq]

Brees is having arguably the most efficient season in NFL history; he's completing an absurd 77 percent of his passes on a league leading 10.2 AY/A, which is just an insane combination. 25 TDs and only one pick. He plays in a dome and rules favor the passing game, but we are witnessing a masterpiece.

 

[bakahump]

Yea for awhile I thought Tom on pure longevity would beat out Brees for the "Most evers...."

But I am beginning to think he wont catch him even if he plays an additional year. If he plays 2 additional years he might nip him.

But Brees doesnt appear to be slowing down either.

 

[BaseballJones]

Brees is having arguably the most efficient season in NFL history; he's completing an absurd 77 percent of his passes on a league leading 10.2 AY/A, which is just an insane combination. 25 TDs and only one pick. He plays in a dome and rules favor the passing game, but we are witnessing a masterpiece.

I came here to post something similar. His numbers this year are just jaw-dropping.

257-334 (76.9%), 2,964 yds, 25 td, 1 int, 126.9 rating, 8.9 y/a, 10.2 ay/a

Last three games: 69-91 (75.8%), 974 yds, 11 td, 0 int, 149.5 rating, 10.7 y/a, 13.1 ay/a

Meanwhile his team has put up 45, 51, and 48 points in those three games.

These are truly video game numbers he's putting up. And yeah he throws a lot of short passes. But here are his numbers on passes 11-40 yards downfield.

51-74 (68.9%), 1,194 yds, 16.1 y/a, 7 td, 1 int, 137.5 rating

Compare those numbers to Brady's and Rodgers':

Brees: 51-74 (68.9%), 1,194 yds, 16.1 y/a, 7 td, 1 int, 137.5 rating
Brady: 57-110 (51.8%), 1,238 yds, 11.3 y/a, 10 td, 4 int, 107.3 rating
Rodgers: 50-112 (44.6%), 1,357 yds, 12.1 y/a, 8 td, 1 int, 109.9 rating

Brees is CRUSHING these two on downfield throws in terms of efficiency. The man is unbelievable and no, it doesn't look like he's slowing down at all.

 

[Super Nomario]

The Saints offense is stupid efficient. The 2007 Patriots scored on almost 53% of their drives, averaging almost 3.2 points per drive. That was substantially better than those imposter 2013 Broncos, who scored on "only" 47.5% of their drives, averaging a "mere" 2.8 points per drive.

This year's Saints? Scoring on 62.5% of drives, almost 3.6 points per drive. That might not be as efficient as the 2007 Pats given dome and what appear to be higher overall levels of scoring, but holy crap.

 

[Cesar Crespo]

Yea for awhile I thought Tom on pure longevity would beat out Brees for the "Most evers...."

But I am beginning to think he wont catch him even if he plays an additional year. If he plays 2 additional years he might nip him.

But Brees doesnt appear to be slowing down either.

Might be hard considering Brees is 18 months younger.

 

[Time to Mo Vaughn]

A lot has been made of Tom Brady's continued performance at an age where seemingly all other QBs in history have completely fallen off a cliff. Brady attributes this to his TB12 method and Alex Guerrero, and as he prepares for another season having just turned 41 I was looking up the sort of stats he would need this season (or next) to pass some of the all time passing records. I realized that Brady actually has some surprising competition even within the category of QBs who have not had HGH shipped to their house.

Tom Brady turned 41 two weeks ago. Drew Brees will turn 40 two weeks after the Saints final regular season game. They are currently tied at 488 TDs (51 away from the all time TD lead) and Brees sits nearly a full season ahead of Brady from a yardage perspective at 70,445 to Tom's 66,159, and Brees stands almost certain to pass Peyton's all time record of 71,490.

Now Brees' Yards and TDs were slightly down last year, his overall efficiency was at or better than his hall of fame career's averages and actually was in range of some of his best seasons. He lead the league with 8.1 Yards/Attempt, higher than all but two s of his previous seasons and his 1.5% Interception % was the lowest of his career and 4th in the league. His reduced counting stats could probably be almost completely attributed to having two of the best running backs in the league on his team.

Brady just this month expressed intent to continue to play in the 2019 season, and likewise Drew Brees signed a 2 year deal this off season. Are we entering an age where 40 is not three years passed the end of a QBs career and rather just a normal milestone for the exceptional talent regardless? Or perhaps we're seeing additional proof of the benefits of the anti-inflammatory diet.

Two of the greatest QBs in history showed no signs of slowing down this year and both have lead their teams to byes and now to the Conference championship. Brady has already said he's coming back next year. Brees hasn't made any comments (that I've found) since October, and at the time indicated he probably wouldn't retire even if the Saints won the Superbowl.

Brees turned 40 this week, led the entire league in QB Rating, set the career yards record and gained a 3 TD lead on Brady for career TDs. He'll enter next season 19 behind Peyton for the career TD mark.

Would make a hell of a finale to the season to see two guys with a combined age of over 80 competing for the Superbowl.

 

[Time to Mo Vaughn]

Bumping this thread almost a year to the day. Both QBs had remarkable seasons last year although Brees did tail off a bit at the end.

Brees finished with 3,992 yards, his lowest total since 2005 by a wide margin though a major reason was that he did sit out the final game. He was only down 4 yards/game from his 2017 season. He again led the league with a 74.4% completion percentages and had 32 TDs with only 5 Interceptions and a league leading 115.7 QB Rating. He also jumped over Favre and Manning to become the all time passing yardage leader.

Meanwhile, 41 year old Tom Brady led his team to another Superbowl victory although his interceptions were up a touch. He finished with 4,355 yards and 29 TDs to go with 11 interceptions for a 97.7 QB Rating.

Looking at some of the all time passing records, Brees remains about a full season of yardage ahead of Brady (3,923), but Brady should leap over both Manning and Favre in the first 5 games of the season. Ditto for completed passes which Brees also became the all time leader last year. Brady should pass Manning in the first few games and Favre in the second half of the season. Peyton's record of 539 TDs will almost certainly fall this season and remains the closest race between Brees (520) and Brady (517).

The biggest question in where these two finish between #1 and #2 in these passing stats is when each of them decides to hang it up. Brees signed a two year deal just before last season, but restructured it at the end of last season to provide $11M more in cap space to the Saints. The negative is that restructuring means there will be a dead cap hit of $21.3M for 2020 season whether or not Brees plays or retires.

 

[Time to Mo Vaughn]

Since I'm clearly somewhat obsessed with the two over 40 quarterbacks that are still tearing it up in the NFL, it's important to note Brees came out of the game yesterday and did not return after his throwing hand collided with the helmet of a defensive lineman. He's seeing a specialist in LA, but is very concerned. DaveRobertsShoes has suggested it's likely a torn UCL in his thumb, which would take 8 weeks to heal and longer to have the strength to properly grip a football. Unless it turns out to be a less severe injury, Brees will almost certainly end up on IR with the potential to return late in the season.

With Brady's 5 TDs on the season to Brees' 2, they're now again tied for the all time mark at 522 just 17 behind Peyton's record.

Brady is 3,726 passing yards behind Brees, which is a little under 12 games worth at the 302.5 yards he's averaged in the first two games of the season. If Brees is out 10-12 weeks, then the gap should drop to less than 500 yards.

 

[The Needler]

Since I'm clearly somewhat obsessed with the two over 40 quarterbacks that are still tearing it up in the NFL, it's important to note Brees came out of the game yesterday and did not return after his throwing hand collided with the helmet of a defensive lineman. He's seeing a specialist in LA, but is very concerned. DaveRobertsShoes has suggested it's likely a torn UCL in his thumb, which would take 8 weeks to heal and longer to have the strength to properly grip a football. Unless it turns out to be a less severe injury, Brees will almost certainly end up on IR with the potential to return late in the season.

With Brady's 5 TDs on the season to Brees' 2, they're now again tied for the all time mark at 522 just 17 behind Peyton's record.

Brady is 3,726 passing yards behind Brees, which is a little under 12 games worth at the 302.5 yards he's averaged in the first two games of the season. If Brees is out 10-12 weeks, then the gap should drop to less than 500 yards.

Looks like Brees will indeed be out for a while.

https://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/27629692

 

[Hendu At The Wall]

Bumping this thread with a bit of forecasting. Passing TDs:

TB12 is at 530
Brees is at 525

If healthy, both will pass Manning's 539 this year, probably in the next ~5 games. Should be interesting to see who does it first.

Brady's about 2500 yards (2nd all time) behind Brees (1st) in pass yards.

 

[Willie Clay's Big Play]

Is TB waiting out Brees? We know he only cares about rings, but he's always said something along the lines of having time to enjoy individual accomplishments later on in life. Maybe the individual records are his nest egg that will satisfy his competitive drive once he hangs them up.

 

[streeter88]

Brady has gained about 2100 yards and 14 TDs on Brees from 2017-present (of which ~1500 and 8 this year), so it’s a lot closer than it was post SBLI.

However, Brees is 1.5 years younger and arguably getting better per game results partially due to the stronger cast around him. Logical to assume that both are one injury / SB win away from retirement, but given both are crazy competitive to have kept going this long, it’s almost become a kind of Survivor game now.

Who will outlast will come down to luck I think.

 

[mikeot]

WaPo "analysis" for BB to tape to Brady's locker:

Tom Brady is no longer playing like an elite quarterback

 

[Kliq]

Not sure if this has been mentioned already, but Brees announced that he is donating $5 million to help fight Covid-19 and related issues in Louisiana. Apparently the money will go to help give out 10,000 meals a day to needy families. Drew Brees is a really good dude.

https://www.cbsnews.com/news/coronavirus-drew-brees-donating-5milllion-louisiana-new-orleans-during-covid19-pandemic/

 

[Time to Mo Vaughn]

A lot has been made of Tom Brady's continued performance at an age where seemingly all other QBs in history have completely fallen off a cliff. Brady attributes this to his TB12 method and Alex Guerrero, and as he prepares for another season having just turned 41 I was looking up the sort of stats he would need this season (or next) to pass some of the all time passing records. I realized that Brady actually has some surprising competition even within the category of QBs who have not had HGH shipped to their house.

Tom Brady turned 41 two weeks ago. Drew Brees will turn 40 two weeks after the Saints final regular season game. They are currently tied at 488 TDs (51 away from the all time TD lead) and Brees sits nearly a full season ahead of Brady from a yardage perspective at 70,445 to Tom's 66,159, and Brees stands almost certain to pass Peyton's all time record of 71,490.

Now Brees' Yards and TDs were slightly down last year, his overall efficiency was at or better than his hall of fame career's averages and actually was in range of some of his best seasons. He lead the league with 8.1 Yards/Attempt, higher than all but two s of his previous seasons and his 1.5% Interception % was the lowest of his career and 4th in the league. His reduced counting stats could probably be almost completely attributed to having two of the best running backs in the league on his team.

Brady just this month expressed intent to continue to play in the 2019 season, and likewise Drew Brees signed a 2 year deal this off season. Are we entering an age where 40 is not three years passed the end of a QBs career and rather just a normal milestone for the exceptional talent regardless? Or perhaps we're seeing additional proof of the benefits of the anti-inflammatory diet.

Kind of crazy that I started this thread nearly 5 years ago. Where'd things turn out:

Yards
1 Tom Brady 89,214
2 Drew Brees 80,358
3 Peyton Manning+ 71,940
4 Brett Favre+ 71,838
5 Ben Roethlisberger 64,088
6 Philip Rivers 63,440
7 Matt Ryan 62,792
8 Dan Marino+ 61,361
9 Aaron Rodgers 59,055
10 Eli Manning 57,023
11 Matthew Stafford 52,082
84 Patrick Mahomes 24,241

TDs
1 Tom Brady 649
2 Drew Brees 571
3 Peyton Manning+ 539
4 Brett Favre+ 508
5 Aaron Rodgers 475
6 Philip Rivers 421
7 Dan Marino+ 420
8 Ben Roethlisberger 418
9 Matt Ryan 381
10 Eli Manning 366
11 Fran Tarkenton+ 342
12 Matthew Stafford 333
13 Russell Wilson 308
58 Patrick Mahomes 192

Completions
1 Tom Brady 7,753
2 Drew Brees 7,142
3 Brett Favre+ 6,300
4 Peyton Manning+ 6,125
5 Matt Ryan 5,551
6 Ben Roethlisberger 5,440
7 Philip Rivers 5,277
8 Aaron Rodgers 5,001
9 Dan Marino+ 4,967
10 Eli Manning 4,895
11 Matthew Stafford 4,508
81 Patrick Mahomes 1,985

Wins
Tom Brady 251
Brett Favre 188
Peyton Manning 187
Drew Brees 172
Ben Roethlisberger 166
Aaron Rodgers 150
John Elway 149
Earl Morrall149
Dan Marino 147
Philip Rivers 137
Johnny Unitas 132
Joe Montana 127
Mahomes 64

Favre, Brees and Peyton are the only players that have as many GP as Tom Brady has wins.

Most Importantly Super Bowl Wins
Brady 7
Montana 4
Bradshaw 4
Aikman 3
Eli 2
Peyton 2
Roethlisberger 2
Elway 2
Mahomes 1

 

[tims4wins]

Thanks for that. My main takeaway is just how far Mahomes has to go to get into that class. Add Ben's entire career to Mahomes' career to date and he still wouldn't pass Brady in any category!

 

[streeter88]

Go Eagles!

 

[Time to Mo Vaughn]

Thanks for that. My main takeaway is just how far Mahomes has to go to get into that class. Add Ben's entire career to Mahomes' career to date and he still wouldn't pass Brady in any category!

Agreed. People seem to be actively rooting against Mahomes for fear that he's going to break or catch Brady's records. He'll be 28 at the start of next season and has been the full time starter for 5 seasons. If he plays at the same level for the next 10 years as the last 5 years (nice easy math just multiplying by 3) he'll be at:
72,723 yards
576 TDs
5,955 Completions
192 Wins

Now I'm going to bet against his next 10 looking like his last 5 anyway. He takes a lot more hits than Brady and in the last few years we've seen a few more injuries like the knee dislocation and this high ankle sprain. His brother may be a turd, and Tyreek Hill is a horrible human being, but let's just enjoy Mahomes for what he is. He's not touching Brady in any category any time soon (and likely ever).