The Rangers won't win this series. The Hurricanes are a better team. But I'm glad they're still in it after going down 2-0.
East Round 2
- Thread starter The Napkin
- Start date
How are you defining my elbow out? It was tucked to his rib cage the entire time until he follows through. He was also half-crouched over when he hit him which is a weird thing to do when head hunting.
Canes are playing with all sorts of fire. Crazy shit can happen in a game 7 no matter how much you may control game.
Kreider has been doing stuff like that all season long. It's amazing.
But a long time to go in this one. I'm glad they scored first. And second. I know they're going to need more.
But a long time to go in this one. I'm glad they scored first. And second. I know they're going to need more.
Pretty good gig when you get nothing but third string and backup goalies as your opponent for two rounds.
Carolina has the same issues as the Bruins do when their opponent sits back and protects the house - stuck around the periphery and not much threatening. It really sucks that the B's only got the first goal once in their series.
Watching this series I can't help but think where would the Bruins be if they had a legit second-line center. They possibly could be in the ECF against a Lightning team that they had no less than 58% xGF in each of the four games against in the regular season.
This is going to be substantially less fun when the Rangers turn back into a pumpkin against the Lightning next round.
The Rangers have some youth, so if a team can handle the grind, it's them. Especially with Igor in net.
But, yeah, Tampa hasn't lost a playoff series in 4000 years. Taking them down is going to be really tough for any team, let alone a tired NYR team who has played 2 seven game series in 4 weeks.
No, they don't have much of a chance against an experienced and rested Tampa. They'll have to steal a game or two early in the series. Falling behind like they did with Pittsburg and early in this series will quickly turn a slim chance into no chance.
Pumpkin how? They have the best goalie in the league and a really young, energetic team capable of scoring in bunches. Tampa will win, but the Rangers were never out of this series vs Carolina. Carolina had two dominant games but were completely dominated for 2 out of 3 periods in game 1 and in basically all of their 4 losses.
Come on. They don't have much of a chance? They are underdogs by a long shot but they have a lot going for them. I agree they need to steal a game early but a lot went wrong for them in this series that was unusual for them. Short handed goals, terrible in faceoffs, Panarin was dead, Igor let a couple meatballs by, game 5 was not the same team we saw all year. I think this is a much better team than people are giving credit for and its not like they are an 8 seed here...
Eh. They've got a top heavy team and a lot of young players. Sure, the depth was improved at the trade deadline, but against a rested and experienced team like Tampa, who also happens to be playing pretty well right now, I think "slim chance" is probably the right answer.
Of course anything is possible if Igor absolutely shows out. I think he's going to have to.
Anyway, making it to the ECF is more than I expected for this team coming into the season. At this point I'm just enjoying the ride. There is a bit of resiliency with this bunch that I didn't expect. They're fun to root for.
The Rangers underlying stats are bad and would signal that a regression coming. The regression could come against Tampa, the Finals or they could crater next season. In the playoffs, the Rangers are getting 45% of the attempts, 45% of the shots, 42% of the scoring chances, 36% of the high dangers chances and only 40% of the xGF%. The Arizona Coyotes, worst team in the league, had a 42% xGF% in the regular season. For New York, it's not just isolated to the playoffs. Their regular season numbers are nearly identical to the playoff ones. Teams that run those kinds of numbers do not have long term success. They are winning because Shesterkin is having one of the top goaltending seasons of recent history. If he drops off at all, it'll look ugly like the first 4 games against Pittsburgh ugly.
We'll see. They are in the conference finals, which is awesome. There are just a lot of warning signs blinking on the dashboard that would concern me long term if I was a Rangers fan. I've said my piece on Gallant elsewhere but the scary thing for me would be they are virtually identical to what Quinn was doing last year, the only difference is Gallant had historic Shesterkin.
The first four games against Pitt had less to do with Shesterkin and more to do with the absolute lack of support around him. Again, don’t see that happening again.
Igor’s problem is a lot like Hank. They can be standing on their head all game and then let a shit goal go by. It’s maddening.
Igor’s problem is a lot like Hank. They can be standing on their head all game and then let a shit goal go by. It’s maddening.
The point was the Rangers get out shot and out chanced almost every single game, usually by a lot. It's impossible to win over the long haul with shot, chance and xGF% well below 50%. They are living a charmed life, getting all world goaltending and some unsustainable shooting luck. If/when either of those components regress, they are in a world of hurt.
The Rangers have made it this far, no reason to think they can't win it all given they only have 2 series left, but like I said, there's a lot of warning signs flashing. The cautionary tale here is the 2016/2017 Ottawa Senators who had a statistical profile similar to the 21/22 Rangers, smoked and mirrored their way to double OT of game 7 in the ECF despite horrendous shot, chance and xG differentials. They ran it back to the tune of a 67 point season in 17/18 and have not recovered.
The Rangers have made it this far, no reason to think they can't win it all given they only have 2 series left, but like I said, there's a lot of warning signs flashing. The cautionary tale here is the 2016/2017 Ottawa Senators who had a statistical profile similar to the 21/22 Rangers, smoked and mirrored their way to double OT of game 7 in the ECF despite horrendous shot, chance and xG differentials. They ran it back to the tune of a 67 point season in 17/18 and have not recovered.
If enough of the the younger players don't continue to develop, sure, I think the Rangers will have some challenges next year, especially if Shesterkin misses significant time. I'm encouraged by what we're seeing from the "kid line". I think think they'll get better.
But yeah, I don't think this team is a finished product. I don't think Drury thinks this team is a finished product.
But yeah, I don't think this team is a finished product. I don't think Drury thinks this team is a finished product.
I'd make a coaching change. The development of the kids, particularly Lafreniere Kakko has been stagnant, plus the system problems I've mentioned that they have been outperforming all season. On an idividual level and a team level, they are essentially the same team as they were with Quinn. The main difference between the two seasons is Shesterkin went from very good to best in the world. As good as Shesterkin is, you can't just let the goalie get peppered every night and expect to keep racking up the wins.
Regular season rankings of the final 4 teams:
Shot Attempts %
Colorado 7th
Edmonton 9th
Tampa Bay 12th
New York 25th
Shots on goal %
Colorado 9th
Edmonton 12th
Tampa Bay 13th
New York 21st
Scoring Chances %
Colorado 6th
Tampa Bay 10th
Edmonton 15th
New York 26th
xGF %
Tampa Bay 9th
Colorado 11th
Edmonton 12th
New York 24th
I think Gorton left a monster here. Panarin/Fox/Shesterkin is probably the best F,D,G core in the league. Zibanejad, Kreider, Strome, Trouba, Lindgren, Miller is a very good to great established supporting cast behind the elite 3. If Lafreniere and Kakko make a leap forward, this group of players is downright scary. I think a better coach and system and they could be as dominant in the East as Tampa Bay has been.
Regular season rankings of the final 4 teams:
Shot Attempts %
Colorado 7th
Edmonton 9th
Tampa Bay 12th
New York 25th
Shots on goal %
Colorado 9th
Edmonton 12th
Tampa Bay 13th
New York 21st
Scoring Chances %
Colorado 6th
Tampa Bay 10th
Edmonton 15th
New York 26th
xGF %
Tampa Bay 9th
Colorado 11th
Edmonton 12th
New York 24th
I think Gorton left a monster here. Panarin/Fox/Shesterkin is probably the best F,D,G core in the league. Zibanejad, Kreider, Strome, Trouba, Lindgren, Miller is a very good to great established supporting cast behind the elite 3. If Lafreniere and Kakko make a leap forward, this group of players is downright scary. I think a better coach and system and they could be as dominant in the East as Tampa Bay has been.