Edes: JBJ down to AAA, Betts up

[LostinNJ]

 
If Bradley can make himself a competent major league hitter, then he would be a well above average  player once his defense is factored in.  

Yes, of course, but he's very far from being a competent hitter right now. I meant that if he improves some as a hitter, he can be merely bad, rather than atrocious. As a bad hitter, he would be an okay center fielder (but not great) because his defense is so good. As a competent hitter, he would be much better than okay. He'd be one of the top contributors on the team.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Yes, of course, but he's very far from being a competent hitter right now. I meant that if he improves some as a hitter, he can be merely bad, rather than atrocious. As a bad hitter, he would be an okay center fielder (but not great) because his defense is so good. As a competent hitter, he would be much better than okay. He'd be one of the top contributors on the team.

Yes - I just mean that the offensive bar he needs to clear to be a plus player overall is ridiculously low (and yet his actual offensive production is well below that).  A .700 OPS makes him a star.

 

[jk333]

Yes, of course, but he's very far from being a competent hitter right now. I meant that if he improves some as a hitter, he can be merely bad, rather than atrocious. As a bad hitter, he would be an okay center fielder (but not great) because his defense is so good. As a competent hitter, he would be much better than okay. He'd be one of the top contributors on the team.

 

Yes - I just mean that the offensive bar he needs to clear to be a plus player overall is ridiculously low (and yet his actual offensive production is well below that).  A .700 OPS makes him a star.

 
I think it is unlikely that the Red Sox choose between Betts and Bradley this offseason because of Bradley's performance and potential. It would take another franchise that value defense as highly as Boston to give appropriate value for Bradley. (A's?) He can't be counted on as a starter in 2015 for the Red Sox. Yet he has too much potential to be given away. 
 
Even if Betts starts next year in CF, its better to have Bradley waiting in AAA working on his offense and as an injury replacement. His performance makes it difficult to start the year with him while his potential makes it difficult to trade him. (for the likely return)

 

[RetractableRoof]

Do we know if Bradley has the necessary work ethic to do this? I vaguely recall hearing how JBJ didn't believe in video work when he first came up claiming he was a "see it and hit" type of batter. The last time I heard this come from a Red Sox prospect was Donnie Sadler.

I guess it is semantics, but "work ethic" and "philosphical approach" to the game are different items. By all accounts he has a solid work ethic. As he approached MLB there were plenty of stories about the amount of extra work he was putting in to acclimate defensively. This included specific things that he devised or carried with him to make sure he was getting good reads, etc.

Will he be willing to change his philosophy on hitting... is another matter. He seems to have listened to a ton of people about his slump and worsened it because he did so... so he was/is willing to listen and not be stubborn - even to his detriment.

 

[bosockboy]

The possibly imminent signing of Castillo is a big part of this equation.

 

[joe dokes]

Yes. In Mookie's AAP thread - http://sonsofsamhorn.net/topic/79002-mookie-betts/ - the second post states that his arm strength moved him off SS.

 
I seem to recall Pedroia being handled the same way for the same reason. They didn;t think his arm woul "play" at SS over the long haul.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

The possibly imminent signing of Castillo is a big part of this equation.

 
How so?

They don't know if they "won" the Castillo bidding, and they don't have to add him to the roster at light speed if they did win the bidding.  They'd have time before the game to make the move if this is what it's all about.

 

[Hee Sox Choi]

Wasn't sure where to put this so I will stick it here.  A friend of mine scouts the South for an NL West team (Al Zarilla's REAL favorite team) and got a chance to catch Mookie Betts in Gwinnet last week for the entire series and wrote me this:
 
"Mookie will be your best player within two years.  A young Peedy."
 
We always talk about trading him but if he can reach his upside, that's a pretty exciting player to have and bat leadoff.  Anyway, just wanted to share his quote.

 

[Drek717]

Wasn't sure where to put this so I will stick it here.  A friend of mine scouts the South for an NL West team (Al Zarilla's REAL favorite team) and got a chance to catch Mookie Betts in Gwinnet last week for the entire series and wrote me this:
 
"Mookie will be your best player within two years.  A young Peedy."
 
We always talk about trading him but if he can reach his upside, that's a pretty exciting player to have and bat leadoff.  Anyway, just wanted to share his quote.

Pretty much.  You don't rake at a roughly .900 OPS at 21 in AA and AAA without having some serious game.
 
I think at this point he gets first crack at the CF job for 2015 and Bradley needs to re-prove the bat.  Maybe Bradley winds up in RF as Vic's replacement, maybe in CF and Betts moves to LF or RF, but that is all to be seen.

 

[Rasputin]

Pretty much.  You don't rake at a roughly .900 OPS at 21 in AA and AAA without having some serious game.
 
I think at this point he gets first crack at the CF job for 2015 and Bradley needs to re-prove the bat.  Maybe Bradley winds up in RF as Vic's replacement, maybe in CF and Betts moves to LF or RF, but that is all to be seen.

 
I think ideally for those two, it's Bradley in center and Betts in right, but that pushes Cespedes to left which pushes Craig to where, first? DH? 
 
Something's gotta give.

 

[joe dokes]

 
I think ideally for those two, it's Bradley in center and Betts in right, but that pushes Cespedes to left which pushes Craig to where, first? DH? 
 
Something's gotta give.

 
These things usually take care of themselves.

 

[Paradigm]

The goal in 2015 is to win the World Series.
 
I'm not sure if you can win the World Series with two below-average bats in the lineup. I'll definitely hear the other side of this argument, but I'm not sure if a lineup that features Bradley and Vasquez can win.
 
Yes, both are stunning, eye-popping, elite defenders at two of the three most important defensive positions in the game, but the tradeoff is great. 

 

[Rasputin]

The goal in 2015 is to win the World Series.
 
I'm not sure if you can win the World Series with two below-average bats in the lineup. I'll definitely hear the other side of this argument, but I'm not sure if a lineup that features Bradley and Vasquez can win.
 
Yes, both are stunning, eye-popping, elite defenders at two of the three most important defensive positions in the game, but the tradeoff is great. 

 
This notion that you can't have anyone below average in the lineup is ridiculous and embarrassing. The problem isn't that Bradley is below average, the problem that is that he is  dramatically lower than average. If his OPS+ were 90, nobody would be worrying about his offense.

 

[chrisfont9]

 
This notion that you can't have anyone below average in the lineup is ridiculous and embarrassing. The problem isn't that Bradley is below average, the problem that is that he is  dramatically lower than average. If his OPS+ were 90, nobody would be worrying about his offense.

2012: Gregor Blanco (94 OPS+), Brandon Crawford (86)
2011: Skip Schumaker (91), Ryan Theriot (85)
2010: Nate Schierholtz (85), Aaron Rowand (78)
 
And so on. It might be more arguable that you can't win the world series *without* two below average players.

 

[Paradigm]

You can't reference the 2010 or 2012 Giants -- both of those teams had deep, elite rotations to carry them through the playoffs. The 2011 Cardinals are a pretty good comp -- they had a number of weak spots and a supporting cast of sluggers (Berkman, Pujols, Craig, Holliday).
 
A lineup can support two weak hitters, especially if those hitters are as elite defensively as Bradley and Vasquez. But unfortunately, you have to question 2/3 of the slots in the lineup next year:
 
Lock
-- I think you can count on (1) Napoli, (2) Ortiz, and (3) Cespedes to do their thing next year. 
 
Questions
-- There are obvious questions about (4) Vasquez's bat
-- Who plays center -- (5) Betts v. Bradley. 
-- Is (6) Allen Craig healthy?
-- Who plays third base? (7) Will Middlebrooks has just never proven himself to be a major league hitter. 
 
Bounceback
-- The team needs bounceback seasons from (8) Pedroia and (9) Bogaerts.
 
The team needs improvements from Craig, Pedroia, and Bogaerts, and needs to get some expletive offense from third base. 
 
So maybe I phrased it wrong. A solid lineup can support two certifiably weak hitters. But a lineup additional question marks at critical positions may not be able to do so. 
 
Especially if the rotation takes a step backwards.
 
I'm as optimistic about the 2015 Sox as everyone. They have money to spend and I really like a lot of the guys on the farm (especially Betts). There's no juggernaut in the division.
 
And most importantly, the guys that need to bounce back are not David Freese, Trevor Plouffe types. It's Dustin Pedroia and an elite young talent in Bogaerts. But the puzzle is not complete.

 

[O Captain! My Captain!]

You can't reference the 2010 or 2012 Giants -- both of those teams had deep, elite rotations to carry them through the playoffs. The 2011 Cardinals are a pretty good comp -- they had a number of weak spots and a supporting cast of sluggers (Berkman, Pujols, Craig, Holliday).
 
 

 
The 2012 Giants didn't. Their team ERA+ was 96, which is below average, and their top 5 starters' ERA+ averaged 98. AT&T park is a hitters' graveyard, which makes their pitching look a lot better than it was. 

 

[Rasputin]

You can't reference the 2010 or 2012 Giants -- both of those teams had deep, elite rotations to carry them through the playoffs. 
 

 
And we can't have a deep, elite rotation? Sign Lester, sign Shields, get good Buchholz, have RDLR get a little more consistently good, and boom, a deep, elite playoff rotation.

 

[joyofsox]

2012: Gregor Blanco (94 OPS+), Brandon Crawford (86)
2011: Skip Schumaker (91), Ryan Theriot (85)
2010: Nate Schierholtz (85), Aaron Rowand (78)
 
And so on. It might be more arguable that you can't win the world series *without* two below average players.

 
2007: Julio Lugo (65), Coco Crisp (83)

 

[JimD]

So we're writing off Christian Vazquez's bat after 84 ML plate appearances?  Tough crowd.

 

[Sprowl]

So we're writing off Christian Vazquez's bat after 84 ML plate appearances?  Tough crowd.

Yea, I've been quite impressed with his approach at the plate, his strike zone judgment, and his willingness - nay, eagerness - to hit to the opposite field. He doesn't have any power, but he doesn't hit many flyballs either. He also runs hard and reasonably well for a catcher that inherited Loopner thighs.

 

[chrisfont9]

So maybe I phrased it wrong. A solid lineup can support two certifiably weak hitters. But a lineup additional question marks at critical positions may not be able to do so. 
 

No argument here. The more players that come with significant downside risks, the more it lowers their chances. And at this point, while they are stockpiling upside, the Sox are still riddled with downside risk for next year.

 

[maxotaur]

So we're writing off Christian Vazquez's bat after 84 ML plate appearances?  Tough crowd.

His performance in the lower leagues presage that.

 

[maxotaur]

So we're writing off Christian Vazquez's bat after 84 ML plate appearances?  Tough crowd.

But he is doing much better than I expected to be honest. So perhaps...

 

[OttoC]

 
This notion that you can't have anyone below average in the lineup is ridiculous and embarrassing. The problem isn't that Bradley is below average, the problem that is that he is  dramatically lower than average. If his OPS+ were 90, nobody would be worrying about his offense.

 
Almost every day, almost every NL team sends out a lineup with a player who is far below average a the plate (and pinch hitters in that league are batting .206/.286/.320/.606).

 

[Niastri]

Of course, every other team also is forced to send out a liability at the plate.
 
The Red Sox play in the American League, which allows a Designated Hitter.  Therefore, they can choose to have the pitcher not hit. 
 
In this new environment of not having pitchers hit, having a position player that hits like one is a bit of a liability.  Having two could be a big problem.  At the very least a team needs some very good hitters to overcome the problems generated by having some very bad hitters.
 
The Sox have worked with lineups that have no easy outs for at least a decade now, and it has worked spectacularly.

Choosing to play a Bradley for his superb defense when they know he can't hit would be a very significant departure from their previous way of operating.  My conclusion is that they believe he will be a good OBP hitter at the least, and possibly develop into an above average overall hitter who plays extremely good defense in a premium defensive position.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

With Castillo on board now, I think we could easily end up seeing Bogaerts, Betts, and Bradley all opening 2015 in Pawtucket. Maybe one of the latter two gets dealt, but I don't think they let Bogaerts play through half a season hitting .160 with the big league club if he's not in the long term plans.

Brock Holt may go from jack of all trades to starting SS, at least for a while.

This year, their OF depth was challenged and they had no answer. Next year, they have Castillo, Ceapedes, Victorino and Craig with health/performance concerns, Nava, Bradley, Betts, and Holt. Bradley and Betts have options so one or both could be "deep depth".

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

With Castillo on board now, I think we could easily end up seeing Bogaerts, Betts, and Bradley all opening 2015 in Pawtucket. Maybe one of the latter two gets dealt, but I don't think they let Bogaerts play through half a season hitting .160 with the big league club if he's not in the long term plans.

Brock Holt may go from jack of all trades to starting SS, at least for a while.

This year, their OF depth was challenged and they had no answer. Next year, they have Castillo, Ceapedes, Victorino and Craig with health/performance concerns, Nava, Bradley, Betts, and Holt. Bradley and Betts have options so one or both could be "deep depth".

 
 

I would be shocked if Bogaerts, Bradley, and Betts are all opening 2015 in Pawtucket, since there's virtually no way that all three of them are in the organization.  Trying to keep depth is fine, but the Sox need to make some trades.  
 
And not only for front-line pitching.  I expect the FO to put the full-court press on the Braves regarding Jason Heyward, using primarily the young positional players/prospects.  
 
The lineup badly needs a LHH other than Ortiz, especially now that Castillo will start taking PAs away from Holt and Nava.
 

 

[Eddie Jurak]

 
 

I would be shocked if Bogaerts, Bradley, and Betts are all opening 2015 in Pawtucket, since there's virtually no way that all three of them are in the organization.  Trying to keep depth is fine, but the Sox need to make some trades.  
 
And not only for front-line pitching.  I expect the FO to put the full-court press on the Braves regarding Jason Heyward, using primarily the young positional players/prospects.  
 
The lineup badly needs a LHH other than Ortiz, especially now that Castillo will start taking PAs away from Holt and Nava.
 

I could see either Bradley or Betts, most likely Betts because he has more trade value, being included in a deal. However, given the questions around many of their OFs, I doubt they will move players just to get rid of them. Cespedes and Victorino could be gone after 2015, Craig and Victorino have major health issues (and Craig may also have a gigantic fork sticking out of his back), Castillo is not a known quantity on offense or defense, Ortiz and Napoli have age/health issues, etc.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

 
 
 

I would be shocked if Bogaerts, Bradley, and Betts are all opening 2015 in Pawtucket, since there's virtually no way that all three of them are in the organization.  Trying to keep depth is fine, but the Sox need to make some trades.  
 
And not only for front-line pitching.  I expect the FO to put the full-court press on the Braves regarding Jason Heyward, using primarily the young positional players/prospects.  
 
The lineup badly needs a LHH other than Ortiz, especially now that Castillo will start taking PAs away from Holt and Nava.

 
Yes. Right now the only LHH on the 40-man besides Ortiz are Nava, Holt, JBJ, Kelly Johnson (who I assume will not be back) and Cecchini. The starting lineup for next year, as the team is currently constituted, would be likely to include only one (or at most two) LHH. This seems like a problem.

 

[Buzzkill Pauley]

I could see either Bradley or Betts, most likely Betts because he has more trade value, being included in a deal. However, given the questions around many of their OFs, I doubt they will move players just to get rid of them. Cespedes and Victorino could be gone after 2015, Craig and Victorino have major health issues (and Craig may also have a gigantic fork sticking out of his back), Castillo is not a known quantity on offense or defense, Ortiz and Napoli have age/health issues, etc.

 
The Sox won't get rid of players just to get rid of them, of course.  And Bradley's trade value is less than Betts but certainly not $0...not after putting on an absolute clinic defensively.
 
It all depends on how much a GM trusts his hitting coaches to "fix" his swing and mental approach at the plate.

 

[Gash Prex]

Seems very likely to me that Betts and Bradley will simply start at AAA next year, with Betts getting a chance to become an everyday outfielder.  There is no reason to trade any of them at this point - makes no sense.  I believe Betts to be almost untradeable at this point (unless its a young superstar deal) but he won't be traded for Hamels or something.  I think this forum really underrates his season in the ML.  He may be a top 10 prospect next year.  
 
X will start at SS, with Holt as the backup in case he falls flat on his face.  

 

[Eddie Jurak]

Gash, that is a likely scenario, but I think Bogaerts' struggles have been so bad this year that he will need to win the SS job in the spring to make the team (which he may do.)

 

[OttoC]

...Brock Holt may go from jack of all trades to starting SS, at least for a while....

 
To me, his best position has been RF and SS his worst; however, he has also stopped hitting. In his last 27 games he has hit .205/.280/.250/.530. Does that mean they have figured out how to pitch to him?

 

[EricFeczko]

I wanted to bump this thread to highlight Betts' performance in the MLB over his first 90 at-bats. So far, he's been hitting a 111 wRC+ with a 0.262 BABIP, a 0.165 ISO, while walking 10 percent of the time, and striking out 12.2 percent of the time.
This is a phenomenal start for a 21 year old, and easily the best we've seen in terms of sustainability and approach out of our 2014 rookies. He's managing this line while maintaining an above-average HR rate (10.7%; though given his size, not sure whether sustainable). His swing profile is phenomenal; he's making contact 88.8 percent of the time, while only swinging 35.3% (15.4% outside the zone), and whiffing 4.0%.
His an extremely selective hitter, but so is bogaerts. The difference is that Betts is better at making contact (close to reliable) and has fewer whiffs (not reliable).

Seems very likely to me that Betts and Bradley will simply start at AAA next year, with Betts getting a chance to become an everyday outfielder.  There is no reason to trade any of them at this point - makes no sense.  I believe Betts to be almost untradeable at this point (unless its a young superstar deal) but he won't be traded for Hamels or something.  I think this forum really underrates his season in the ML.  He may be a top 10 prospect next year.  
 
X will start at SS, with Holt as the backup in case he falls flat on his face.

Barring a slump/injury, I don't see Betts as a AAA player anymore. Like Xander, he needs to be an MLB starter next year. If you keep JBJ in Pawtucket, you can have Betts/Castillo in CF, Nava (career 124 wRC+ against righties)/Cespedes (career 128 wRC+ against lefties (462 PA), AND 117 wRC+ against righties) play left, and Castillo/Betts/Victorino in right.

 

[LondonSox]

The fact Betts is carrying his walk and strikeout ratios to the majors at his age is very exciting.
With his positional flexibility on top, he looks like a guy you want to get in the team for a looooong time to me.
I'm the guy who runs the adopt a prospect thread so it's no shock I'm a huge fan, but this kid is going to stick.
So is xander in the end btw

 

[Darnell's Son]

Outside of rehab assignments, Mookie should never see the Bucket again. He's a major league player.

 

[JakeRae]

Betts' HR rate is high relative to what he produced in the minors and, thus, likely to come down. But, his ISO is low relative to his minor league track record. So, while his HR rate is likely to decline, it's also reasonable to suppose his 2B and 3B rates might increase to compensate for that decline. Additionally, his BA will almost certainly go up as his BABIP regresses.
 
He certainly looks like a MLB hitter and has performed like one so far. Like with Bogaerts, it is probable that he will struggle at some point in his development, but he is also pretty clearly proving he belongs in MLB. I'd be pretty surprised if he doesn't enter next year as either our starting CF or 3B.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Two of his three HR have come on the road, even though two-thirds of his PA have been at home. His swing seems to naturally produce hard fliners that will usually hit the wall at Fenway but may often clear the fence elsewhere.

 

[chrisfont9]

 Like with Bogaerts, it is probably that he will struggle at some point in his development, but he is also pretty clearly proving he belongs in MLB. 

This is something everyone should bear in mind regarding both players. I'm thrilled for both, fully expect Betts to struggle eventually, and in some reasonable time frame (2016) we should have two of the league's most exciting young players.

 

[Pumpsie]

Barring a slump/injury, I don't see Betts as a AAA player anymore. Like Xander, he needs to be an MLB starter next year. If you keep JBJ in Pawtucket, you can have Betts/Castillo in CF, Nava (career 124 wRC+ against righties)/Cespedes (career 128 wRC+ against lefties (462 PA), AND 117 wRC+ against righties) play left, and Castillo/Betts/Victorino in right.

This.  Betts and Holt will give this team tremendous flexibility going forward.  No reason for either of them to start out at AAA next season.  JBJ is another story completely.  You start him in AAA, after he's had an offseason with a hitting coach, and you see what you have then.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Outside of rehab assignments, Mookie should never see the Bucket again. He's a major league player.

 
I'm sure we can find similar comments made after Bogaerts' play during the postseason last year

 

[ScubaSteveAvery]

 
I'm sure we can find similar comments made after Bogaerts' play during the postseason last year

 
Or after the first 4-5 weeks of the season. 

 

[EricFeczko]

 
I'm sure we can find similar comments made after Bogaerts' play during the postseason last year

 
Or after the first 4-5 weeks of the season. 

I'm not so sure.
Xander showed great patience at the beginning of the season, but his performance was also driven by an unsustainable BABIP ~.390. Xander was also selective at the beginning of the year, but he has also been poor at making contact (~75-80%) relative to Betts.
Although Betts has been weaker at run creation (wRC+ 111). His performance has been better than Bogaerts in terms of things that are sustainable, despite his lower than average BABIP.

 

[maxotaur]

Betts' HR rate is high relative to what he produced in the minors and, thus, likely to come down. But, his ISO is low relative to his minor league track record. So, while his HR rate is likely to decline, it's also reasonable to suppose his 2B and 3B rates might increase to compensate for that decline. Additionally, his BA will almost certainly go up as his BABIP regresses.
 
He certainly looks like a MLB hitter and has performed like one so far. Like with Bogaerts, it is probable that he will struggle at some point in his development, but he is also pretty clearly proving he belongs in MLB. I'd be pretty surprised if he doesn't enter next year as either our starting CF or 3B.

With 3 HR's it might be just a wee bit early to start deconstructing his HR rate. No?

 

[Paradigm]

I'm just impressed by the bat speed and the tight swing on the inside Archer fastball that he launched for a grand slam. Use your eyes, not the statline, with so few at-bats.

 

[strek1]

Seems very likely to me that Betts and Bradley will simply start at AAA next year, with Betts getting a chance to become an everyday outfielder.  There is no reason to trade any of them at this point - makes no sense.  I believe Betts to be almost untradeable at this point (unless its a young superstar deal) but he won't be traded for Hamels or something.  I think this forum really underrates his season in the ML.  He may be a top 10 prospect next year.  
 
X will start at SS, with Holt as the backup in case he falls flat on his face.  

 
 NO reason? You mean other than the fact that all we have for available pitching right now is back of the rotation guys?  I don't they want to pony up financially for both Lester & Max S. (And maybe neither).

 

[HomeRunBaker]

Would the Red Sox ever consider moving Pedroia? From a baseball-only perspective it makes too much sense, from a financial-only it does as well.......can the team withstand the massive PR hit?

Betts at 2B for the next half dozen years on the cheap would be a bargain and alleviate the OF logjam.

 

[OttoC]

Would the Red Sox ever consider moving Pedroia? From a baseball-only perspective it makes too much sense, from a financial-only it does as well.......can the team withstand the massive PR hit?

Betts at 2B for the next half dozen years on the cheap would be a bargain and alleviate the OF logjam.

 
Before the deadline, I suggested that trading Pedroia would be a good way to help rebuild the club. I think the politest way to describe comments I received would be to say they contained much derision. I thought it was a natural move. I don't think Pedroia is going to age well at the plate and as you say, it opens up second base for Betts.

 

[RochesterSamHorn]

With Pedroia out with concussion observations, I would love to see Betts at 2b. Wouldn't this be an opportune time to see what we have in Betts as a 2Bman?

 

[RochesterSamHorn]

Why? With Pedroia the 2B of the past, present and future, what's the point?

Nobody knows the future of Mookie Betts. If it is here, he's not playing 2B or CF (supposedly Castillo). They say there are very few teams where Betts would not be the starting 2B, and Boston is one of them. I'm assuming if he is traded, it's as a 2b. Why not shut down Pedroia for the rest of the year and showcase Betts at 2b for maximum value?
 
And Castillo will be playing CF for the last two weeks of the season, supposedly.