I doubt if it would change anybody's opinion of his value. Also, Pedroia wants to play and the people who attend games want to see him play.RochesterSamHorn said:
Edes: JBJ down to AAA, Betts up
- Thread starter RedOctober3829
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Night of the Keyboard said:
Ugh, I hate this argument. This team mints money. They would never put a player on the field if there was a long-term health risk (which would carry long-term financial repercussions) for some kind of short-term financial gain like selling a few more hot dogs because fans want to see Pedroia.
If Pedroia passes his concussion protocol tests, just what kind of long-term health risks are we talking about here?Paradigm said:
Now saying that, I believe that the Sox should be showcasing all month, and that the kids should be looked at every position, including Betts at 2b.
If Betts can play 2B, he should be able to play 3B. I would feel more comfortable with him there than Middlebrooks.
Betts has played over 220 games at 2B in the minors and is considered to be a plus defender. I don't believe a month at 2B in the majors is going to have much effect either way.bigyazbread said:
Teams that are out of play off contention are still playing games that have ramifications for other teams. There is an expectation for non-contenders to make their best effort to win those games and playing Pedoia is part of that best effort.
From what I've read, the knock on him is the accuracy of his arm. That has actually been on display a few times with wild throws from the outfield that are nowhere near the target. So, it's possible that he can't play 3B (or SS). However, like you, I wish they'd at least try it during winter ball and spring training.scotian1 said:
Night of the Keyboard said:
Sorry, but that argument doesn't hold much water when we are trotting out to the mound Webster, Workman, and the likes to "see what we have." And yes, I know that that is ALL we have to pitch at this point...prospects. So, playing Betts at 2b is not like we're replacing Pedroia with a slug. And besides, as a Red Sox fan, I would like to see Betts at his natural position in a Red Sox uniform before he's traded.
scotian1 said:
Why? Can all infielders (other than 1b of course) simply play any infield position?
He's never played 3B as a pro, or pre singing that I'm aware of, he was a SS pre pro ball and they immediately moved him off that.
scotian1 said:
You generally need more of an arm to play third base than you do second base. He is described on Sox Prospects as having a solid average arm in one place and in another it says that his arm strength is a question when it comes to switching to the shortstop position.
The main reason that Pedroia will play the rest of the season is that he wants to play; probably more than any other player. He won't be mollified by, "We want you to be healthy for 2015." Besides, unless he gets a serious injury, 4 months off should take care of any wear and tear.
I'm sorry, what are the arguments again for playing Betts at 2B for a couple of weeks?
1. Take away reps for him in his new CF position? Considering he's now penciled in (in my mind) to play CF in 2015...
2. Increase his trade value by showing that he can play the position he played in the minor leagues? Versus diminishing his trade value by indicating he's not a CF'r...
3. Replace the best defensive 2B in the major leagues, a guy who's going to play there well into his late career? I guess that opens up a Holt trade...
4. Fuck with his head?
I'm missing something.
1. Take away reps for him in his new CF position? Considering he's now penciled in (in my mind) to play CF in 2015...
2. Increase his trade value by showing that he can play the position he played in the minor leagues? Versus diminishing his trade value by indicating he's not a CF'r...
3. Replace the best defensive 2B in the major leagues, a guy who's going to play there well into his late career? I guess that opens up a Holt trade...
4. Fuck with his head?
I'm missing something.
5. Lots of people want to keep CF open for Jackie Bradley even though he can't hit.geoduck no quahog said:
In this scenario, what are the RS doing with their expensive Cuban investment? Assuming no trades are made, you have to make it at least an open competition.
With the Castillo signing, the trade for Cespedes and the Mookie emergence I don't see JBJ playing in Boston in 2015.
As for his trade value, even if he rakes in AAA there will still be concerns about his ability to make the transition to the majors. It would be good for both the Sox and JBJ to trade him to a team that will give him another chance to prove he can become an adequate hitter in the ML.
As for his trade value, even if he rakes in AAA there will still be concerns about his ability to make the transition to the majors. It would be good for both the Sox and JBJ to trade him to a team that will give him another chance to prove he can become an adequate hitter in the ML.
I'm actually somewhat encouraged by Bradley's struggles these last weeks in AAA. I suggests that his whole swing/approach is messed up — that he isn't the same guy right now who accrued his minor league stats.
If he had gone down and put up an .800 OPS or something in Pawtucket, that would raise doubts about the transferability of his skills. This suggests that he actually just needs to get back to his previously established mechanics and approach.
If he had gone down and put up an .800 OPS or something in Pawtucket, that would raise doubts about the transferability of his skills. This suggests that he actually just needs to get back to his previously established mechanics and approach.
wade boggs chicken dinner said:
We haven't seen him enough to get a feel if he's better in CF or RF (or even LF). It'll be interesting to watch him play.
I hear what you're saying, but I wonder what's going through JBJ's mind. For me, I think I'd rather be hitting the ball well, and then hope it transfers up to the majors next year, or whenever, and forget a giant nightmare. If I'm not hitting, I'd be like "what the hell do I do now". I mean, he must be working with coaches and using an approach and a swing that they think is best to produce hits. It doesn't, so what now?nvalvo said:
Why can't some combination of Betts and Castillo play CF/RF in 2015?
1. Its pretty well established that you need "two center fielders" in this ball park.
2. Mookie has slashed .300/.400/.500 at every level of baseball, and while its admittedly quite early, he looks awfully comfortable in the bigs for a 21 y/o (.267/.347/.433 to date).
I know Mookie doesn't look like a "prototypical corner outfielder" but if he can maintain his career trajectory at the plate somewhat he's in all likelihood a better hitter than this Castillo guy. And if you wear blinders when he's at the plate, based on his track record, you realize his lack of "power bat" status is somewhat superficial - 3 long balls already and 6 doubles. The real question is the defense - all of his "web gems" so far were balls Jackie Bradley Jr. catches standing.
1. Its pretty well established that you need "two center fielders" in this ball park.
2. Mookie has slashed .300/.400/.500 at every level of baseball, and while its admittedly quite early, he looks awfully comfortable in the bigs for a 21 y/o (.267/.347/.433 to date).
I know Mookie doesn't look like a "prototypical corner outfielder" but if he can maintain his career trajectory at the plate somewhat he's in all likelihood a better hitter than this Castillo guy. And if you wear blinders when he's at the plate, based on his track record, you realize his lack of "power bat" status is somewhat superficial - 3 long balls already and 6 doubles. The real question is the defense - all of his "web gems" so far were balls Jackie Bradley Jr. catches standing.
To clarify, I'm not saying the kid is untradeable or anything. I'm just saying that IMO the presence of Castillo should not have much to do with it. He appears to be a future leadoff hitter. He's cheap. He collects steals and XBH. Its not like with Bradley where the defense is the draw and away from CF, you aren't getting your money's worth anymore. He's really an offensive player first, and if all goes well, a damn good one. He can play another position and be valuable. Hell, if Cespedes can learn the secrets of RF I'd love to see a left to right outfield next year of Betts-Castillo-Cespedes.
The X Man Cometh said:
It really makes no sense to consider Betts in LF and Cespedes in RF. Betts is significantly faster and should have far better range for Fenway's RF, and the same goes for Castillo. As soon as Castillo signed, I think it killed any designs on switching Cespedes to RF. It'll be either Castillo or Betts in RF with the other in CF, most likely. The only way I don't see that happening is if they play Betts at 3B or are foolish enough to trade him.
I tend to prefer the extra 30 outs made by the RF catching the ball rather than the 10 extra outs made by the RF throwing out a base runner. But it would be certainly fun with Cespedes in RF .. If not the most efficient use of the personnel.Adrian's Dome said:
In that vein, I'd love to see the number of opponents at Fenway scoring from second on a hit to left be nil for the season.BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
But you don't necessarily need to see the RF throwing out base runners. They may choose not to try to go from first to third or second to home because of his arm. If an RF with a noodle arm makes the 30 more catches but the runner always goes from first to third or scores from second on a single to right, wouldn't that negate some of those extra outs?
What I would like to see is Red Sox outfielders stop making throws that have absolutely no change at getting the runner that let other runners gain an extra base.
BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
OTOH, Betts' speed makes him a better choice for RF only half the time, while Cespedes' arm makes him a better choice for RF all the time. So there's that.
To complete it, with Cespedes in right, runners may not tag up and advance so much from second to third on flyballs to right, or on rare occasions, from first to second on deep flies caught in right center. Will Cespedes, being the veteran, get a bit of a say on his preference of OF positions to play? OMG, OMG, we may have an outfield that can actually hit next year!OttoC said:
HomeRunBaker said:
Pedroia is a premier defender at 2B. He might be the best defensive second baseman in baseball. Betts was impressive in the minor leagues but I am not sure he is better than Pedroia.
What does the SABR community have to say on the arm vs. range debate for RFs?
Another thing to keep in mind with Betts is that he will get to the ball quicker than Cespedes will. This relates to an old discussion in one of the very early abstracts on why Mickey Rivers , of all people, used to get so many OF assists. For those not familiar with Rivers his modern equivalent might be Carl Crawford. The argument went something like "Rivers has a rag arm - so you run on him - but he has the ball sooner than you would of guessed and manages to throw out a large number of runners despite having what was a weak arm"
I really have no idea of the relative values. But an Out made is far easier to quantify.
Besides - from what I have seen Betts has a very average arm - certainly not in the Ellsbury of Crawford class.
Another thing to keep in mind with Betts is that he will get to the ball quicker than Cespedes will. This relates to an old discussion in one of the very early abstracts on why Mickey Rivers , of all people, used to get so many OF assists. For those not familiar with Rivers his modern equivalent might be Carl Crawford. The argument went something like "Rivers has a rag arm - so you run on him - but he has the ball sooner than you would of guessed and manages to throw out a large number of runners despite having what was a weak arm"
I really have no idea of the relative values. But an Out made is far easier to quantify.
Besides - from what I have seen Betts has a very average arm - certainly not in the Ellsbury of Crawford class.
Agreed, he's going to end up super valuable this year even with the offensive regression, he's not going to bring back a superstar in return, and the FO isnt gearing up for multi-season rebuild. This team has enough uncertainty to deal with, no need to trade away 5 WAR guys with reasonable contracts who aren't real likely to regress over the next year or two.TomRicardo said:
When you include offense I believe it's close to being a wash. Betts could generate a higher OPS and is a much better baserunner. As for defense, it might be the difference between the best, and one the best.TomRicardo said:
Betts could also generate a much lower OPS, as we learned from Bradley and Bogaerts this season. I also don't think I'd concede yet that Betts is a much better baserunner -- he's much faster, yes; that doesn't always translate.Night of the Keyboard said:
Let's not get carried away by a prospect's first four weeks in the majors ... again.
Stitch01 said:
I think Betts has a good shot at being in the top 10 of most prospect lists this year. As such, he could very easily be the center piece in a big trade.
Regardless of whether he stays or goes I think he has to play full time. The idea of turning him into a super sub seems insane to me.
It's not like Cespedes is Adam Dunn out there. He's very fast for a power hitter (he claims to have run a low sixes 60-yard-dash, which is probably an exaggeration) and could likely be a 20 SB guy on an aggressive team. He was 16 for 20 in 2012.
Considering Mookie's played all of 50 games in the outfield in his pro career, I think labeling him a de facto huge upgrade in right over Cespedes is reaching more than a little. There's no way it's a 20-out difference in getting to balls.
A big arm in right field in Fenway can have a huge impact - we've seen that with Evans and even a bit with JD Drew, a very under-rated defensive outfielder. There's value in left, too, but not nearly as much.
Considering Mookie's played all of 50 games in the outfield in his pro career, I think labeling him a de facto huge upgrade in right over Cespedes is reaching more than a little. There's no way it's a 20-out difference in getting to balls.
A big arm in right field in Fenway can have a huge impact - we've seen that with Evans and even a bit with JD Drew, a very under-rated defensive outfielder. There's value in left, too, but not nearly as much.
I agree. If he stays he needs a position. The reason Holt has played so much this year is because of the bad offensive performance of so many players. With Cespedes and Castillo there will be fewer opportunities for a super-sub in 2015. Also, Betts is right-handed so a platoon won't make much difference.BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
Fangraphs has Pedroia giving the 5th most WAR of all second basemen this year, and in the previous three years he was 3rd, 4th and 1st.Night of the Keyboard said:
His rank amongst all position players the last four years in reverse chronology is 26th, 18th, 30th and 4th. So, anyway, I don't think Betts as a second baseman is one of the twenty-five best position players in baseball so I wouldn't call it a "wash."
TomRicardo said:
The Oliver 5 year projections think so ... http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=13611&position=OF
Yes, I think he's the likeliest piece to move as part of a big trade. If not, and if he's really a 5 WAR OF, Im sure the Sox can find a home for him on the '15 team. Sign a 3B or SS (or trade for Beltre), roll out Cespedes-Castillo-Betts with Victorino/Craig/Holt making up 3/4 of the bench and PT sprinkled liberally with Bradley still in the wings in AAA seems like a reasonable option.BCsMightyJoeYoung said:
Is that in the outfield, or at 2b? I realize Mookie shredded AAA, but that's an extremely optimistic projection for any prospect.HillysLastWalk said:
Actually, I do. I know it's a SSS, but according to bbref he already has 1.0 WAR after only 102 PA. I'm on the West Coast so I've only seen him play a handful of games, but he seems to be far more advanced than X or JBJ. He does a good job of staying in the strike zone and is very quick to the ball.TomRicardo said:
The question isn't whether Betts is a 5 WAR player. Betts is already in the organization and in the lineup, putting him at 2B instead of CF still means you need to replace Pedroia in the lineup. So, in order to come out ahead, both Betts and the guy who ultimately replaces Pedroia need to be 5 WAR players.HillysLastWalk said:
scotian1 said:
Not trying to be a jerk, but I'm assuming this means you've never played either position.
O Captain! My Captain! said:
Yeah, I had the same question myself. Not sure.
Though, to echo NotK, Mookie already has a 1.0 bWAR and a 0.5 fWAR. In 27 games. And in a majority of the games, Mookie was just learning a new position (his call-ups before this recent one), and he still is (so the defensive component may be skewed negatively at this moment).
Also bear in mind that when discussing Pedroia, a lot of his value is tied to his defense. Dustin Pedroia has a 103 OPS+ this year, with this slash line: 280/340/379.
Don't get me wrong, my bias believes he's the best defesive second baseman in baseball. But I'm also smart enough to realize that WAR relies on shaky defensive components. I believe I was reading in one of Keith Law's recent chats that someone was throwing out a +/- 2.0 margin of error, which would make the WAR stat useless.
Also, don't look at Pedroia's 5 year projections (he ceases being a 5 WAR player!)
Big cautionary note that's already been offered:
We have no idea how good or bad Castillo is. We're assuming he immediately takes a starting position in the outfield (over Craig and Victorino). We don't even know if he can hit major league pitching. God hates pre-annointment.
We need to keep a critical eye on Betts. He hasn't really gone through the "pitching scout's learning curve" to the extent that Bogaerts and Middlebrooks have. He sure looks like a hitter, but we need to see more at bats.
Don't you agree that it's premature to say Betts is a better hitter today than either Victorino or Craig? Someone comped him to Ray Durham...which is certainly a good thing. Time will tell.
We have no idea how good or bad Castillo is. We're assuming he immediately takes a starting position in the outfield (over Craig and Victorino). We don't even know if he can hit major league pitching. God hates pre-annointment.
We need to keep a critical eye on Betts. He hasn't really gone through the "pitching scout's learning curve" to the extent that Bogaerts and Middlebrooks have. He sure looks like a hitter, but we need to see more at bats.
Don't you agree that it's premature to say Betts is a better hitter today than either Victorino or Craig? Someone comped him to Ray Durham...which is certainly a good thing. Time will tell.
A friend of mine is a scout for an NL West team that covered Mookie's region and I asked him a couple of questions about XB and Mookie. This quote is relevant to the discussion:Night of the Keyboard said:
"Mookie can do more. He's a Young Pedroia... Mookie would be one of the best two 2b in the game if he were playing his natural position"
I have not looked at defensive metrics for Middlebrooks, but to my eye he has great hands, and a strong and accurate arm. I have no problems with him defensively.
It's his bat that needs replacing.
It's his bat that needs replacing.
MyDaughterLovesTomGordon said:
I've been a big WMB supporter for the last few years, hoping like crazy that he becomes a 30 hr, .830 ops kind of guy. But I don't think it's happening. Time to move him to a team that is willing to take a chance on him, and can afford to wait. I know the return won't be much, but whatever.
Or just keep him in AAA and hope that someday it clicks.
I'm amazed by Pedroia. Let's face it: his hitting has been a huge disappointment this year. But even still, he's put up this line: .280/.340/.379/.719, with an ops+ of 103 and a 4.2 fWAR (4.9 bWAR).
So he's still an incredibly valuable player for this team, even if he never again reaches MVP-level.
So he's still an incredibly valuable player for this team, even if he never again reaches MVP-level.
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