Enes Kanter Freedom to Boston
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A key question with Kanter is what the team can do to limit the damage he does in the defensive end.
Offensively, he's a tremendous asset coming off the bench with his ability to crash the boards and with his effective post game. I think he's had a key role in the recent stabilization of the bench units.
Offensively, he's a tremendous asset coming off the bench with his ability to crash the boards and with his effective post game. I think he's had a key role in the recent stabilization of the bench units.
Brad is good at finding the right matchups for Kanter.
Which leads to limiting his minutes against perimeter shooting 5s.
EK is a plus rebounder, so we can't discount that in regards to his defense.
BUT he is still dreadful in the PnR, and the entire league knows it. Teammates that get screened/picked need to go over the screen and stay with their man as Enes drops back to guard the lane/rim. Kanter is not capable of guarding anyone on the perimeter, best if he stays close to the rim.
22 points allowed in the 13 minutes Kanter was on the floor in the first half in Toronto, 25 points in the 11 when he was off the floor. Kanter put up 10 points in the half. He played 7 minutes in the third, and the Raps put up only 8 points, after scoring 14 in the first five minutes.
Kanter is always going to have a spotlight on his defensive play, especially in p/r, but defense is a team thing, and with so many long, quick defenders around him, they can still get good defensive results with him on the floor.
Kanter is always going to have a spotlight on his defensive play, especially in p/r, but defense is a team thing, and with so many long, quick defenders around him, they can still get good defensive results with him on the floor.
Probably more than anyone could ever see.
One of the members here has a view from his window of the secret service snipers on the building below his watching Trump Tower st all times. Like, they’re there. But nobody wants to see that shit.
I need to watch film more closely to see if this is actually the case, but my guess is that playing guys like Tatum who can rear-view contest makes drop coverage more viable.
They also ice PnR even in the middle of the floor a lot. It’s an uncommon choice, because you’re conceding the midranger, but it mostly eliminates 3s off the screen.
Edit: watched more, and the scheme was definitely to force any high PnR away from the screen and into the big below the arc. Toronto’s counter was usually to hit the big on the short roll, but that’s already a win for the defense with Kanter out there. The other direct counter was to pop the big. Boucher hit some 3s out of that action, but the defense will live with that.
Toronto also tried was running Celtics style double screens, but Lowry and Van Vleet aren’t quite as fast or dangerous in the lane as Kemba, so their man was usually able to chase over and deter the 3.
To my eye, the best option for Toronto against Kanter was when they could run a lot of initial misdirection and then get a DHO or more dynamic PnR—that somewhat negated the Celtics’ attempts to funnel everything below the baseline.
Overall it’s a promising setup if you have to play Kanter vs sniper PnR guards, but there are things that could be attacked i. a 7-game series. Fortunately, Philly and Milwaukee don’t currently have the personnel to do any of this (although of course they have other strengths.)
(Wannamaker also had some great defensive clips, and I can see why he’s getting so much run.)
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Brad has some old man strength, built like a tank, active hands whenever anyone dribbles in the lane. He's a nice counter piece with Kemba when CBS wants to go double small and have Kemba play off the ball.
In control going to the rim on the break, nails FTs and is effective on catch/shoot 3s (according to my eye test). Nice veteran, deep depth, ball-handler at that salary, good job Danny.
Still don't get the snipe Wanamaker receives in the game thread.
Since Williams' injury, though, Kanter has played more minutes (with Brad less able to play matchups) and been more productive. And as bad as his defense may be, his on-off stats are way better than TL's.
I think (hope?) everyone expects TimeLord’s contribution to winning to be negative until he learns the game fully. That’s normal for young raw guys, and his minutes should be seen as developmental.
As I outlined in my post above, the Celtics have done some nice scheming to mask what I was sure would be Kanter’s downfall: PnR quick-trigger guards like FVV and Lowry.
Given how comfortable he looks executing handoffs in the base offense, I’m getting closer to Can Play Kanter, especially against Philly/Milwaukee. Hell, against Milwaukee you could just stick him out there on Lopez in Budnholzer’s potted plant offense and suffer no defensive consequences.
yep, I was answering your question:
Not surprising that Kanter's defense has been improving over the years. With the changing game, center defense takes longer than most to learn. CBS understands what Enes can and can't do. So while he sucks on the perimeter, when he drops back towards the rim he swallows up most rebounds at a high rate. Limiting 2nd chances has been a defensive weakness for the Celtics in the past.
I'd rather see Kanter on the floor than TL, who can't stay healthy and thus can't build the reps/rhythm needed to improve. Even if TL returns in a month (optimistic?) I don't trust his ability to stay on the floor going forward. So, I'd move on that deep depth center. This season has much more promise than any of us expected, it doesn't need to be derailed by a Kanter/Theis injury.
He is a nice player, but at times (recently) he takes on too much. For example (purely anecdotal) it seems like he is looking for his offense as opposed to being opportunistic. I think he needs to shoot wide open threes - but shouldn't take pull up threes...
I can only think of 2-3 pull-up threes he’s taken recently. It’s really nitpicking imo.
Haha - you are probably right. But even one makes me cringe a bit. Regardless I think he has proven to be an NBA player - and expect him to be back in the league next year. I wonder if it comes down to him versus waters next year for the last ball handler on the team or whether they can continue like this.
With a plethora of kids on the roster and draft picks, you pay Brad the $1.5MM/yr. If he has to play the room mom and drive the kids around in the station wagon, so be it.
Cheap, skilled, experienced, deep depth is a good way to build winning teams.
Waters and Edwards will find their way regardless.
Cheap, skilled, experienced, deep depth is a good way to build winning teams.
Waters and Edwards will find their way regardless.
He could be up for a big salary increase next year as an UFA. The C's have no Bird rights with him, so I think there's a good chance he moves on to another city.
Wannamaker is a decent player, but he’s not the kind of guy teams typically shell out for.
Speculating 3MM-5MM a year isn't too far off though is it? Agreed that I would like him back and is a quality deep depth guy. Just wondering if another team might like him as the primary back up.
see Larkin, Shane
Then you say thanks Brad, good luck with the Knicks
find the next veteran PG from Europe that's overlooked or go with Waters or Edwards or draft pick...lots of options.
Paying 2yrs for $10MM isn't one of them
No Bird rights, but they do have Brad rights, which is when the player and coach have the same first name.
Yeah, it looks like he could barely touch his knees if he tried to touch his toes.
But he's good at basketball (for how much he's paid and his role), and it's annoying when people can't see that.
I'm guessing Brad and Ainge will use all of Waters 45 days at the NBA level to see what they have. I don't think they'd go with Edwards as a back up PG next year barring some miracle. It's not his game.
Established bench players are usually divisive because bench players have flaws. It's why they are bench players. I hated Wanamaker at the start of last year, now I don't really care. I'd rather he get 15 minutes a game than 20-25 but there's really no one else to give the minutes to unless Waters is on the roster.
Back to the thread, the same thing can be said about Kanter. Some love him, some hate him. At one point, you could have said the same about Rozier and Morris but by the end of their stay, they were pretty much universally hated.
I really like post play, which is largely a lost art, and therefore enjoy Kanter.
I also happen to think having someone who you can feed for a tough bucket is really valuable.
I also happen to think having someone who you can feed for a tough bucket is really valuable.
Kanter's limitations in the PnR are well documented, but what's up with his issues around the rim this year? He's shooting .565 from 0-3 feet vs. .653 for his career. He keeps getting blocked on his put backs or missing bunnies. He has no lift at all, it's painful to watch. His offensive rebounding isn't as valuable if he can't finish. I'd like to see him dish back out to the perimeter for a wide open 3 rather than repeatedly get stuffed.
The data and the eye test match up in this case - he seems to be missing a lot more around the cup (and clearly overall) than he did in his OKC days.
Some of it may be rust but he is also taking - and to be fair making - more midrange-ish (3-10 feet) shots than in years past.
For me it raises questions about whether his knee is healthy or if there is something else going on. I have a hard time believing that the Celtics want him taking more shots further out longterm unless he magically develops a credible three point shot this late in his career.
What's the number of shots hes taken from 0 to 3 feet? I'd check now but about to board a plane. Variance is highest around 50% - he missed a straight up dunk yesterday, I wonder how confident we can be his lower numbers this year aren't purely due to a few fluky misses like that.
It looks pretty real. 67% of all of his 127 shots so far are in the 0-3 ft range, per bref. That's like 8 misses or so and would mean he made ~15+% more of his close-in shots. He's never had a full or partial season below .630 before.
Bref has him at 23.6% of his shots coming in 3-10 vs. a career average of 22.3%, so it looks pretty in-line. Not sure what it says about his knee. He's been around for a while but he's only 27.
I have defended Wanamaker since training camp from the Edwards/Waters believers but there isn't anyone going to give him 2/10 imho. Theis plays a position that has always paid top dollar for reserves/rotation players as their are a limited number of human beings who possess the size/skillset to compete at this level. There are many many many more players you can acquire on the cheap to provide what Wanamaker does...….that list just may not include an Edwards or Waters just yet (if ever).
As a 2-year veteran next summer, Wanamaker will earn a min of just over $1.6m. He'll probably get a little more tacked on but far short of the $5m AAV you're suggesting. The market for random backup guards has never been that of backup bigs who can compete with opposing 5's based on demand......that still holds true today.
So what's the probability a coin flipped 85 is times with true probability heads of 63% would produce a sample of observed heads < 55%? Id guess its actually a pretty good chance.
His career average from the 3-10 range seems heavily weighted by his time in Utah which was right before the league movement to eschew midranges in favor of higher percentage shots or threes. It was also bumped up by his stint with the Knicks - my .02 is that you can dismiss those prints given the state of that franchise.
Contrast that with his last Utah season as well as his time in OKC when he was shooting from the 3-10 range more around 15-20% of the time.
Maybe its just noise but his shooting overall bears watching. As for his age, he is 27 but he seems to be dealing with more injuries over the past few years. Again, that may not have anything to do with his shooting but its also may explain his relative fall off near the rim.
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I'm with Sammy on this one. Need to see more before worrying too much about that.
For example, a few times Brad has subbed Kanter in for Theis specifically against long, beefy bigs that give Theis problems down low. It goes to figure that those cats are more likely to bother a putback bunny.
Something worth tracking though. Good catch.
For example, a few times Brad has subbed Kanter in for Theis specifically against long, beefy bigs that give Theis problems down low. It goes to figure that those cats are more likely to bother a putback bunny.
Something worth tracking though. Good catch.
We're in luck. I found a binomial and cumulative probability calculator on the interwebs.
Probability of success on a single trial: 65.3% (his career rate 0-3ft)
Number of trials: 85
Number of successes (x): 48
Cumulative probability [P(X < x) ]: 5.7%
It could be normal variance but it looks pretty real.*
*unless i'm misinterpreting something in the calculator. I don’t think I am but it’s been a hot minute since I took probability and statistics.
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Established bench players aren't divisive when they accept their role, which both Kanter and Wannamaker have done. People didn't like MaMo and TRoz because they not only saw themselves as starters, they both wanted to play roles far beyond what the team needed them to do (or what they were good at, well at least last year).
This should be framed.
This was the #1 culprit to last season's underperformance. Not Kyrie.
Up and down the roster, roles were not defined last season. Rotations were bizarre and the players were confused. Frankly, that falls on Danny and Brad, which they have admitted to not handling well numerous times.
Since June 20th (NBA Draft Day) Brad and Danny have been on point and built this team, defined roles and executed with precision.
Many us, myself included, initially bitched about the signing of Enes Kanter. From the start, Brad said Kanter would come off the bench and used in certain matchups. Credit to Kanter for accepting his bench role and thriving.
Brad also came out right away and said Kemba, JB, JT, GH and Smart were the Celtics 5 best players. While obvious, he was defining roles early. The rest of the roster would be fighting for minutes. Its been effective.
Not that Brad needs defending, but it's awfully hard to define roles and establish rotations when three of the first seven players were all too willing to, well, go off on their own.
Brad admits that he didn't get total buy-in and he takes responsibility for that. I'm not sure I'd buy that it was his problem.
But I'm sure he's glad the year is over.
I supported and felt for MaMo because he was a starter prior to arriving in Boston and was going to be a starter wherever he signed last summer. I supported and felt for Rozier because he proved that he was a starter in this league and was going to be a starter wherever he signed last summer. They were bad fits on the roster.....that doesn't make them bad people it just meant they were terrible fits to be taking a back seat in their FA year to be rah-rah team-first guys. Frankly, I don't blame them. They were in their FA year and in frustrating spots on the team Ainge put together.
Edit: Responding to above......I don't feel Brad really believes he made mistakes with that roster. It's standard coach-speak alternative to saying his boss placed him in a position to fail and not succeed. Doc is as good as I've ever seen at managing personalities to get the best out of them and I don't think he would have succeeded with that cluster of a roster.
I agree with pretty much all of this and give you huge credit for seeing this problem before it happened. The lion's share of the blame for last year's shitstorm belongs to Ainge.
What I hold against MaMo, TR, and Kyrie is that they chose to coast on defense. Looking for theirs on the offensive end is understandable given their circumstances, and it's also understandable why they wanted more minutes and complained about it. But bagging out on defense more often than not really hurt that team and wasn't necessary.
Terry got his money, and Marcus got his starting job back. And Kyrie got back to NY and will get to play with his bud next year. I'm happy for them. Still pissed that their lack of effort at the defensive end caused the defense to fall apart like a house of cards frequently.
For all those people who still think Kanter's defense is a problem, I was poking around BRef in the "How Many Games Will the Cs Win This Year" and shocked to find out that Kanter is leading the team in WS/48. (With caveat that I know people think WS is a junk stat.)
Kanter's DBPM is also 2.1, which is by far the highest in his career and note that he had only one full season where he had a positive DBPM (2017-18 Knicks).
Here's a Celticsblog article that discusses the eye-test versus advanced stats thing with Kanter more in depth: https://www.celticsblog.com/2019/12/21/21031572/dissecting-the-enes-kanter-debate-boston-celtics-18-rebounds-pick-and-roll-defense
Kanter's DBPM is also 2.1, which is by far the highest in his career and note that he had only one full season where he had a positive DBPM (2017-18 Knicks).
Here's a Celticsblog article that discusses the eye-test versus advanced stats thing with Kanter more in depth: https://www.celticsblog.com/2019/12/21/21031572/dissecting-the-enes-kanter-debate-boston-celtics-18-rebounds-pick-and-roll-defense
Win shares is one of those that thinks the key to all basketball is offensive rebounding if I recall correctly. Which is a bit of an outdated perspective.
Real plus-minus also thinks pretty highly of Kanter, which places him 10th in the league at 2.36 (ORPM 0.78/ DRPM 1.58) among centers. By comparison, other Celtic centers:
Fall, 39th, at -0.91 (-0.64/-0.28)
Poirier, 47th, at -1.53 (-0.70/-0.82)
TL, 50th, at -1.71 (-0.18/-1.53)
Oddly, Theis is listed with the PFs, where he places 14th at 1.77 (-1.04/2.81).
Fall, 39th, at -0.91 (-0.64/-0.28)
Poirier, 47th, at -1.53 (-0.70/-0.82)
TL, 50th, at -1.71 (-0.18/-1.53)
Oddly, Theis is listed with the PFs, where he places 14th at 1.77 (-1.04/2.81).
Does anybody have a link to that old piece on the statistical analaysis of Dennis Rodman possibly being the most underrated player in the league? I can’t find it now, but the Kanter discussion has me thinking of it now and I can’t find it on Lord Google.
Kanter is still really bad at pick n roll defense. CLE should have run it every time Kanter was on Love and it likely would have resulted in a good look from three for either Love or whoever he ran it with
No, the thesis was that he was the greatest player of all time. It was by the guy who works at 538 now.