Eovaldi to Red Sox, per Rosenthal

PrometheusWakefield

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Hate it. We have so few players in our minor league system that are projectable cost-controlled players coming up in the next couple of years. Beeks was the best shot we had. Eovaldi is interesting but only here for one year. He's nice to have, but I don't really think we needed him.
 

Pozo the Clown

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Kind of reminds me of Schilling who didn’t break out until 27 or so in 1993.
Beeks kind of reminds me of Casey Fossum who: 1) was part of the package sent to AZ to acquire Schilling: and 2) was the subject of an old SoSH thread titled "Awesome Fossum" in which Eric Van claimed that Fossum was the equal of the then-career-prime Bartolo Colon. Good times!
 

JimD

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I know I am in the substantial minority, but I can't really fault Lou Gorman for the Andersen-Bagwell deal. Yeah, it should have been just about anyone but Bagwell, but the idea of trading a prospect for a vital bullpen piece (or starter) made sense to me at the time in that case and makes sense to me now.
Not to get sidetracked here, but I will always fault Gorman, not only for having no idea what he had in Jeff Bagwell, but especially after reading that his own minor league staff implored him not to include Bagwell in the trade. 'Cooper-for-Anderson' should have been a long-forgotten footnote in Red Sox history by now.
 

Rovin Romine

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Not to get sidetracked here, but I will always fault Gorman, not only for having no idea what he had in Jeff Bagwell, but especially after reading that his own minor league staff implored him not to include Bagwell in the trade. 'Cooper-for-Anderson' should have been a long-forgotten footnote in Red Sox history by now.
Hey there, Cooper was twice the All-star Brock Holt is.
 

uk_sox_fan

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I hope Beeks has a fine future ahead of him but the odds that he becomes a front-end or #1 - 3 rotation guy are probably 20% at best. Eovaldi can help the rotation now, can improve our pen for the stretch and playoffs either directly or by pushing one of the other starters there and takes a low-cost, high upside starter off the list for our rival. I think it's a great answer to the Britton move - you don't have to buy the highest priced relief arms to improve your bullpen; you can do it by increasing your SP depth as well.

If all goes well (normally at this point) the Sox will have the luxury of experimenting with which starters will be most effective out of the pen and, if this lead holds up, can take the second half of September to experiment without worrying about losing the division. You might not like the move as much as I do but unless you're related to Jalen Beeks I can't understand why you'd hate it.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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Beeks kind of reminds me of Casey Fossum who: 1) was part of the package sent to AZ to acquire Schilling: and 2) was the subject of an old SoSH thread titled "Awesome Fossum" in which Eric Van claimed that Fossum was the equal of the then-career-prime Bartolo Colon. Good times!
Forgot all about Awesome Fossum. I remember Gammo had a piece comparing him to Jimmy Key. Jesus.

Beeks is just another guy. He’s actually replaceable and the team probably has someone with his upside in single A or lower. His upside was not high at all.
 

Rovin Romine

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Beeks kind of reminds me of Casey Fossum who: 1) was part of the package sent to AZ to acquire Schilling: and 2) was the subject of an old SoSH thread titled "Awesome Fossum" in which Eric Van claimed that Fossum was the equal of the then-career-prime Bartolo Colon. Good times!
The SoxProspect Forum features a surprisingly normal-ish response from old SoSH posters. . . .
 

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His career is the definition of mediocrity or even sub-mediocrity. His ERA+ has only been above 100 once since his rookie year, though he appears to have gotten screwed by a luck a few times according to FIP.

His good peripherals this year are completely out of line with his career numbers. The 6.63 K/BB ratio is galaxies above his previous best of 3.3 (and for most of his career he was under 2) And this is the first time his WHIP is under 1. It had never been 1.3 before.

This is probably a good risk and decent insurance, but I'm curious to see how he holds up as the year goes on post injury. A guy returning from an elbow injury and being that much better is a cause for caution.
He's always struck me as a guy with a big arm who didn't strike out enough batters and gave up too many hits. Sort of Joe Kelly, the starter. He doesn't put us over the tax threshold, and Beeks seems relatively fungible, so I'm fine with it. But I don't expect him to be much more than Fister was last year. Frankly, I'd like to move him to the bullpen and see if his stuff can play up like "good Kelly." But I doubt that happens, at least not prior to the playoffs.
 

https

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Among American League starters with at least 50 innings pitched, Eovaldi ranks:
  • 1st in strike rate
  • 4th in chase rate
  • 2nd in walk rate
  • 10th in SIERA
  • 12th in xFIP
His 20.1% K% – BB% trails only Sale, Verlander, Cole, Paxton, Bauer, Severino, Kluber, Morton, and Carrasco on the junior circuit.
 

gedman211

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Sunday would be Pom's day, so that's great news! Just turn Pom into Javy Lopez and we're good.
 

Plympton91

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this is my opinion as well. I would have rather given up two lottery ticket prospects than a guy who has had a taste of the majors and might be really close.

are we sure Eovaldi can handle the Boston climate? wasn't he a bit of a headcase for the Yankees?
This is also my opinion. I’ll add something else people haven’t properly weighted, Eovaldi isn’t a good bet be able to finish the year strong. Two TJ surgeries? What’s the track record on those? He may well have used up most of the effectiveness he’s going to have this year already

This deal has a bit of an Eric Bedard feel to it. Or that other Eric.
 
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Plympton91

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Fangraphs notes some changes in Eovaldi especially wrt his cutter. Good news!
https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/instagraphs/red-sox-acquire-nathan-eovaldi/

Also the Globe bothered to read SBNation's Rays page where they discovered that Eovaldi is basically Randy Johnson the first two times through the order and Joe Kelly the third time through.
This is a good catch. I remember watching Yankee games where Girardi would remove him early because of exactly that.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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If he turns into a pumpkin after two times, I can see him being used as a power righty out of the bullpen in the playoffs, given the note above about how well he does against good RH hitters on potential playoff teams.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Hopefully Eovaldi can be this year's Doug Fister without the bad start. I like Jalen Beeks but I'm not sure he's going to stick as a starter. Nothing I'd lose sleep over.
 

chrisfont9

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If he turns into a pumpkin after two times, I can see him being used as a power righty out of the bullpen in the playoffs, given the note above about how well he does against good RH hitters on potential playoff teams.
He could be a starter on a short leash, with the hopes that we are up 5-0 by the time he gets to the third time through.
 

grimshaw

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You guys are selling Eovaldi short unless you mean playoff starts.

He's only had one in 10 starts where he failed to go 5 and with 5 QSs. Pomeranz has failed to go 5 in 5 of his 9 starts, with 2 QS and Johnson in 3 of his 5 with 0 QS. And I'm really not buying Johnson long term with his stuff.

I don't see much of a chance where he is worse than those guys.
 

Mike F

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Regarding PGs comments on Awesome Fossum, I believe he said:
When I saw Fossum pitch I got a whiff of Colon.

Fossum pitching reminded me of a sunburn I got one day on the Jimminy Keys.
 

tonyarmasjr

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You guys are selling Eovaldi short unless you mean playoff starts.

He's only had one in 10 starts where he failed to go 5 and with 5 quality starts. Pomeranz has failed to go 5 in 5 of his 9 starts, with 2 QS and Johnson in 3 of his 5 with 0 QS. And I'm really not buying Johnson long term with his stuff.

I don't see much of a chance where he is worse than those guys.
That's a loose use of the term "failed" in Johnson's case. Yes, he failed to go 5 innings, but it wasn't because he failed to perform - which is what I believe you're implying. He gave up a total of 5 runs in those 3 starts. Maybe he gets rocked if left in, maybe he doesn't give up any more runs. Probably somewhere in between. My point is, we don't know, but he has been better than Eovaldi in the innings he's actually pitched. Also, his first start (before he went to the bullpen) was a QS.
 

Dahabenzapple2

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Johnson's 3.81 ERA is a mirage - look at that WHIP for this year an last. The guy is just too easy to hit and doesn't have good control.

Eovaldi's contuining issue is giving up too many HR's but his WHIP <1 is maybe an indication he could be successful. In the past - see 2015 & 2016 he gave up a zillion hits/inning - in 2015 it might have been the highest in the game. His W-L record of 2015 was a mirage.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Yeah, I'm not seeing the criticisms of Brian Johnson. He's been a reliever most of the year. His starts so far since being put back in the rotation have all been cut short out of concern for his pitch count rather than ineffectiveness. Given enough starts to build himself up to a 95-100+ pitch count, he'd pitch through the fifth and maybe the sixth more often than not.

That said, the move with the addition of Eovaldi is putting Johnson back in the bullpen where he has been effective and giving Pomeranz every opportunity to get himself going in the rotation. One lackluster start in his return from the DL isn't enough to relegate him to the bullpen just yet.
 

grimshaw

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That's a loose use of the term "failed" in Johnson's case. Yes, he failed to go 5 innings, but it wasn't because he failed to perform - which is what I believe you're implying. He gave up a total of 5 runs in those 3 starts. Maybe he gets rocked if left in, maybe he doesn't give up any more runs. Probably somewhere in between. My point is, we don't know, but he has been better than Eovaldi in the innings he's actually pitched. Also, his first start (before he went to the bullpen) was a QS.
I'm not sure that's necessarily true. Johnson has him beat in ERA, FIP and the home run thing. Eovaldi has him beat in k%, bb/9, groundball % xFIP and especially WHIP by a ton (.99 vs. 1.42.

I believe more in Eovaldi's peripherals than Johnson's stuff, but that is just my opinion. Regardless, I'm happy to have Johnson as a quality long guy.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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It was basically him or Brasier unless someone came down with an injury out of the blue. Apparently, they want to see more of Brasier, and you can't really blame them for that.
 

tonyarmasjr

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I'm not sure that's necessarily true. Johnson has him beat in ERA, FIP and the home run thing. Eovaldi has him beat in k%, bb/9, groundball % xFIP and especially WHIP by a ton (.99 vs. 1.42.

I believe more in Eovaldi's peripherals than Johnson's stuff, but that is just my opinion. Regardless, I'm happy to have Johnson as a quality long guy.
Sure. My argument was and is that Eovaldi (or any other SP we were going to acquire) is not a clear upgrade on Johnson (or Velazquez). Trying to parse peripherals and weighting the ones we deem more important to see who we think is better kind of proves my point. Johnson's not really a 2.22 ERA starter (or even a 3.80 guy), but that's the result of what he's done this year. Eovaldi should be a better starter than Johnson, but his ERA is a full 2 runs higher in 2018. I'm not saying Johnson is better. I'm saying it's closer than some are giving him credit for, close enough that it's not even clear Eovaldi is better. And I think he was the best starter we were going to get.

My point throughout this thread is that if we were going to trade for a pitcher, I'd rather keep Johnson in the rotation and get a reliever, since the upgrade from Johnson to X starter is probably not very significant. And that upgrade to a playoff roster, assuming one of Pom/EdRo/Wright are healthy and effective, is zero. The upgrade from our worst reliever to a good one would be a better use of resources.
 

Drek717

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That sucks. Workman has been their 2nd or 3rd best reliever since he came back.
He got touched up pretty good his last two outings. Maybe they think that’s something he can adjust to in AAA while having options to enable that choice.
 

YTF

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Sure. My argument was and is that Eovaldi (or any other SP we were going to acquire) is not a clear upgrade on Johnson (or Velazquez). Trying to parse peripherals and weighting the ones we deem more important to see who we think is better kind of proves my point. Johnson's not really a 2.22 ERA starter (or even a 3.80 guy), but that's the result of what he's done this year. Eovaldi should be a better starter than Johnson, but his ERA is a full 2 runs higher in 2018. I'm not saying Johnson is better. I'm saying it's closer than some are giving him credit for, close enough that it's not even clear Eovaldi is better. And I think he was the best starter we were going to get.

My point throughout this thread is that if we were going to trade for a pitcher, I'd rather keep Johnson in the rotation and get a reliever, since the upgrade from Johnson to X starter is probably not very significant. And that upgrade to a playoff roster, assuming one of Pom/EdRo/Wright are healthy and effective, is zero. The upgrade from our worst reliever to a good one would be a better use of resources.
In Eovaldi's 10 starts this season he's taken a no hitter into the sixth once, another into the seventh and was perfect through seven in another start. I get that you want to shore up the bullpen, but are you telling me that either of Johnson or Velazquez can't fill that role?
 

Byrdbrain

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He got touched up pretty good his last two outings. Maybe they think that’s something he can adjust to in AAA while having options to enable that choice.
I just think he is a pretty fungible body and was the obvious choice to be sent down since he had the options. Brasier has certainly shown enough to be given some higher lev opportunities.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I'm not sure that's necessarily true. Johnson has him beat in ERA, FIP and the home run thing. Eovaldi has him beat in k%, bb/9, groundball % xFIP and especially WHIP by a ton (.99 vs. 1.42.

I believe more in Eovaldi's peripherals than Johnson's stuff, but that is just my opinion. Regardless, I'm happy to have Johnson as a quality long guy.

Johnson has always over performed. Maybe there is something to it.
 

tonyarmasjr

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In Eovaldi's 10 starts this season he's taken a no hitter into the sixth once, another into the seventh and was perfect through seven in another start. I get that you want to shore up the bullpen, but are you telling me that either of Johnson or Velazquez can't fill that role?
Yes, adding Eovaldi does help shore up the bullpen by moving/keeping the other two there.

There are basically two "seasons" to consider.
Regular season - I don't know that it improves the rotation any/much, since Johnson and Velazquez have also been successful in that role. It does provide SP depth should EdRo/Pom/Wright not return to form. It also allows them to lengthen the bullpen and keep guys fresh, since BJ and HV go multiple innings out of the pen.

Postseason - There are two scenarios here. 1) If Pom/Wright/EdRo are healthy/effective, all of BJ/HV/NE are in the pen; they are likely not all on the playoff roster. Maybe Eovaldi becomes a nice piece out of the bullpen in this scenario; his success against righties and his pure stuff would seem to bode well for that. 2) If none of the first three are healthy and effective, Eovaldi is the 4th starter. It's even possible he just pitches his way into that rotation over the rest of the season. This is the scenario in which this deal is the most worth it (assuming he pitches decently).

I don't not like the deal. It helps. And Eovaldi has upside that I don't think any other starter we would've been in on offers. I don't think his <1.00 WHIP is quite real, but there are 8 other starters in MLB who match that. However, getting a high-leverage reliever would bolster the bullpen and be useful in both the regular season and postseason. This move may not. To answer your question, no, I wouldn't look forward to Johnson or Velazquez being a late-inning, high-leverage reliever. In the end, I hope Kelly can right the ship and Thornburg and Brasier keep showing well/improving. That would make the whole discussion moot. I wasn't set on DD making a move; if he did nothing I'd be ok with it. I just thought a reliever could be more useful than a starter, given that the starter we would acquire isn't a lock to be any/much better than the guys we've been running out there.
 

Sprowl

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That sucks. Workman has been their 2nd or 3rd best reliever since he came back.
I have more confidence in Workman spotting his fastball, cutter and curve than in Kelly, Barnes or Hembree hitting their spots with the fastball. He can't throw as hard, but he has a better idea where it's going.
 

VORP Speed

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Beeks scheduled to make his debut as multi-inning guy for the Rays today. He’s basically going to be replacing Andriese in the scheduled multi-inning arm pool.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Beeks scheduled to make his debut as multi-inning guy for the Rays today. He’s basically going to be replacing Andriese in the scheduled multi-inning arm pool.
I think he could actually do really well in that role if a right hander starts. He'd have multiple innings against a left handed heavy lineup.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I'm rooting for the guy... but really he was fungible AAAA fodder at the best. I was shocked that some here were against the deal. Sure, he'll definitely be better than this, but he's going to be the definition of Replacement Level pitcher (either starter or bullpen).
 

sean1562

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I feel for the guy. Working all your life to get to the show, dominate AAA only for your stuff not to work against big league guys. Has to be a hard pill to swallow
 

DJnVa

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I had to head out after the first inning, and with him at 20 pitches after one I was hoping we'd get 5+ today, but he must have really dialed it in after that. Very impressed with this stat line.