Eovaldi to Red Sox, per Rosenthal

tonyarmasjr

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Yes, adding Eovaldi does help shore up the bullpen by moving/keeping the other two there.

There are basically two "seasons" to consider.
Regular season - I don't know that it improves the rotation any/much, since Johnson and Velazquez have also been successful in that role. It does provide SP depth should EdRo/Pom/Wright not return to form. It also allows them to lengthen the bullpen and keep guys fresh, since BJ and HV go multiple innings out of the pen.

Postseason - There are two scenarios here. 1) If Pom/Wright/EdRo are healthy/effective, all of BJ/HV/NE are in the pen; they are likely not all on the playoff roster. Maybe Eovaldi becomes a nice piece out of the bullpen in this scenario; his success against righties and his pure stuff would seem to bode well for that. 2) If none of the first three are healthy and effective, Eovaldi is the 4th starter. It's even possible he just pitches his way into that rotation over the rest of the season. This is the scenario in which this deal is the most worth it (assuming he pitches decently).
Worth it! I didn't expect him to end up our #3 heading into the postseason. He certainly has been a welcome relief to watching guys not named Chris Sale against this mfy lineup.
 

sean1562

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Thank you Nathan. This game and your great season against the Yanks has bought you a lot of goodwill from a lot of Sox fans, I imagine. I really woudlnt mind seeing this guy in a Sox uniform for the next 3-4 years. 3-4-5 of ERod-Wright-Eovaldi? Sounds pretty good to me.

7 IP, 1 ER against out biggest rivals in Yankee stadium? Wasnt that his line last time out?
 

Adrian's Dome

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The guy came out in front of a hostile crowd, held his composure, and threw a damned good game. Held the lead when it was small, didn't let up when it wasn't, saved nearly the entire bullpen, and swung the momentum our way.

Not much else to be said about that performance.
 

Valek123

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What does a contract extension even look like for Eovaldi?

There is something about him that reminds me of Carl Pavano, except for the pitching part.

Could be an absolute season saving start following Price's disaster, a short start even with the day off would have put the BP and Porcello under heavy pressure tonight.
 

Soxfan in Fla

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What does a contract extension even look like for Eovaldi?

There is something about him that reminds me of Carl Pavano, except for the pitching part.

Could be an absolute season saving start following Price's disaster, a short start even with the day off would have put the BP and Porcello under heavy pressure tonight.
That start was huge for sure. It’s amazing that’s he’s struggled at times and been been shelled at times since coming over but he’s just mowed down the Yanks every time he’s faced them. He looks like an ace against them this year.
 

JimD

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The guy came out in front of a hostile crowd, held his composure, and threw a damned good game. Held the lead when it was small, didn't let up when it wasn't, saved nearly the entire bullpen, and swung the momentum our way.

Not much else to be said about that performance.
He's the anti-Price.
 

nvalvo

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What does a contract extension even look like for Eovaldi?

There is something about him that reminds me of Carl Pavano, except for the pitching part.

Could be an absolute season saving start following Price's disaster, a short start even with the day off would have put the BP and Porcello under heavy pressure tonight.
I think it’s a one year deal at good money, with a club option/buyout that vests if he finishes the year healthy.

He’s in terra incognita with all of the surgeries he’s had.
 

Rough Carrigan

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I loved his use of the curve today. The Houston hitters looked like vegetarians offered rare roast beef. They wanted no part of it and he got free strikes. How can you gear up for 98 and for that curve? This is Verlander's bread and butter.
 

joe dokes

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I loved his use of the curve today. The Houston hitters looked like vegetarians offered rare roast beef. They wanted no part of it and he got free strikes. How can you gear up for 98 and for that curve? This is Verlander's bread and butter.
All the pitchers are sticking to the scouting and game plan. Some are executing better than others. But even when not totally effective, like sale and price, they keep the team in the game
 

sean1562

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At this point, you have to try and bring him back right?
I would think so. Even if he just is what he was this year that is a 2.5 WAR pitcher over a whole season. I doubt he ever "takes the next step" but wouldn't mind seeing him as the 4/5 guy for the next 3 years or so
 

Dewey'sCannon

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Maybe it's wishful thinking, but perhaps Nate is tired of being a vagabond, and also recognizes that he has the best chance to maximize his potential by staying with the Sox (if he thinks he's been helped by the coaching staff's use of analytics and/or approach). The real unknown is how the market will value him given his injury history. he'd be great on a one or even two year deal, but maybe some team is willing to gamble on three or four years. Seems like a good candidate to offer a deal with vesting option based on IP.
 

TonyPenaNeverJuiced

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I came here looking for this conversation, but perhaps it should be broader. What is this teams 2019 rotation?

Under contract:
Sale
Porcello (do you lock him up for more than next year?)
Price (assuming he opts in)
ERod (Arb)
Johnson (Pre-Arb)
Velazquez (Pre-Arb)
Steven Wright

FA's:
Eovaldi

As I've stated in other threads, and I still hold true, I would LOVE to have Eovaldi over Johnson/Vela/Wright. We absolutely should bring him back. The only question is, does someone offer 2/3's the AAV we do, but over more years?
 

rajendra82

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I would love to see him be back. He looks to tun it up a notch, and goes after the hitters, when he has a chip on his shoulder. I would do a contract, just keep the MFYs to keep their grubby hands from getting back on him.
 

Apisith

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I came here looking for this conversation, but perhaps it should be broader. What is this teams 2019 rotation?

Under contract:
Sale
Porcello (do you lock him up for more than next year?)
Price (assuming he opts in)
ERod (Arb)
Johnson (Pre-Arb)
Velazquez (Pre-Arb)
Steven Wright

FA's:
Eovaldi

As I've stated in other threads, and I still hold true, I would LOVE to have Eovaldi over Johnson/Vela/Wright. We absolutely should bring him back. The only question is, does someone offer 2/3's the AAV we do, but over more years?
I don’t think there’s any chance we extend Porcello. Price will definitely opt in and we have to create some payroll space for Sale. Sale’s current salary and Porcello’s current salary combined is ~$33m, that’s close to what Sale will get.

I think our rotation can’t change much if we want to contend beyond next year, and that might mean Eovaldi can’t come back. We really need to develop some BP guys and hope we graduate one starter because we will need to spend a lot of money on Xander and Mookie really soon.
 

sean1562

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Is re-signing Sale after next season really the best move though? 33 mil a year, 7/231 for a guy that will be 31 on opening day 2020?

Price is making $32 mil through 2022, is committing $100 million in payroll to Price/Sale/Mookie something that will really be in the best interests of the franchise in 2021/2022? Then 65-70 mil just for Mookie and a 35 year old Chris Sale?
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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I thought all these offseason discussions were off limits during playoff runs! WTF?!?!?
The guy has now been the fulcrum for two playoff series. Of course, this being a 7 game series, it doesn't quite fully shift the way the MFY series did on Game Three. But shutting these guys down like he did.... going deep into the game... and guaranteeing that the playoffs will at least return (except they won't since we're sweeping these Cedar Choppers in Houston) to Boston IS HUGE.
Going back to the forbidden topic... just his performance these two nights will guarantee someone will overpay him. We know how these things work.
 

Clears Cleaver

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Isn’t the discussion really “is this guy really this good, and if so, what’s changed?” It looks to me without going back and analyzing pitchfx data that his cutter is a legit weapon now that hitters have not been able to square up. He is still not striking out a ton of guys but it used to be his fastball was sit on pitch and he’d give up tons of barrels.

If there is something real then you have sign him. Sale is not going to be here
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Isn’t the discussion really “is this guy really this good, and if so, what’s changed?” It looks to me without going back and analyzing pitchfx data that his cutter is a legit weapon now that hitters have not been able to square up. He is still not striking out a ton of guys but it used to be his fastball was sit on pitch and he’d give up tons of barrels.

If there is something real then you have sign him. Sale is not going to be here
It's not like he was a crap pitcher before, and now all of a sudden he's good. He had one bad (and clearly injury-related) year, 2016, which I think maybe folks are focusing on a bit too much. Before that he had three straight decent-to-good seasons, marred mostly by high BABIPs that may have been partly a function of weak defenses behind him (a mediocre infield in Miami, and a geriatric overall defense in NY). His main weakness was an inability to miss bats, yet even with K rates in the under-20% range, he was racking up FIPs in the mid-threes, thanks mainly to great success at keeping the ball in the park and low walk rates. Since adding the cutter, he's giving up more long balls, but also striking more guys out.
 

VORP Speed

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Kyle Snyder, Rays pitching coach, fixed his cutter and got him trusting it. He’s been solid all season, it’s not a fluke.




“One reason my cutter has gotten better is [Tampa Bay pitching coach] Kyle Snyder. We went over a couple different grips. It’s a pitch he has a lot of knowledge on. He’d thrown one when he pitched, and he suggested the way he held his. It was different from the way I had been throwing mine, but it felt good and I found that I get consistent cut with it. It’s been working out well for me.”
 

Rovin Romine

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I don't discount the idea that Eovaldi has made real progress, especially with the improved cutter, which might turn into his new baseline.

But to pump the brakes slightly, at this time last year wasn't there a hue and cry to sign Nunez, given that he'd so obviously turned a corner as a hitter that he was sure to be an .800 OPS lineup fixture?
 

amchin

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Kyle Snyder, Rays pitching coach, fixed his cutter and got him trusting it. He’s been solid all season, it’s not a fluke.




“One reason my cutter has gotten better is [Tampa Bay pitching coach] Kyle Snyder. We went over a couple different grips. It’s a pitch he has a lot of knowledge on. He’d thrown one when he pitched, and he suggested the way he held his. It was different from the way I had been throwing mine, but it felt good and I found that I get consistent cut with it. It’s been working out well for me.”
Kyle Snyder, embedded Sox
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Let's not forget how terrible Eovaldi was through most of August (his first two starts with the Sox were excellent, then blah). Then Pedro spotted the problem and came in to work with him for a couple days. Whatever Pedro did is clearly working.
 

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I don't discount the idea that Eovaldi has made real progress, especially with the improved cutter, which might turn into his new baseline.

But to pump the brakes slightly, at this time last year wasn't there a hue and cry to sign Nunez, given that he'd so obviously turned a corner as a hitter that he was sure to be an .800 OPS lineup fixture?
There was a lot of love for Doug Fister too
 

Cesar Crespo

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I'd like Eovaldi back, but it depends on the terms of the deal. I doubt teams are going to just ignore his injury history due to his post season heroics.

If it's something like 2 or 3 years at $10-12 annually, I'm on board. I could see an Eovaldi signing opening up some trade possibilities too but that's a topic for the off season.
 

mt8thsw9th

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If it's something like 2 or 3 years at $10-12 annually, I'm on board. I could see an Eovaldi signing opening up some trade possibilities too but that's a topic for the off season.
So you're not on board? Guy can throw 100. As @boogerpressley said last night, with any major improvement, he's one of the best pitchers in the game. Someone will take a chance on him, and that 5% chance he harnesses everything. At his age, Randy Johnson was walking 6 batters a game. I don't see him getting south of 3/50MM.
 

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Eovaldi is 28 while Fister was 33. Fister also signed for 1/3.5, with a team option for a 2nd year at $4.5 mil or a 500k buyout. Everyone would be doing cartwheels if we signed Eovaldi to that deal.
Not even close to my point. I'm talking about being a prisoner of the moment after two great playoff starts.
 

Cesar Crespo

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So you're not on board? Guy can throw 100. As @boogerpressley said last night, with any major improvement, he's one of the best pitchers in the game. Someone will take a chance on him, and that 5% chance he harnesses everything. At his age, Randy Johnson was walking 6 batters a game. I don't see him getting south of 3/50MM.
If that's the case, I'm definitely not on board. Even with his stuff, he doesn't strike guys out. He strikes me as a guy who might offer similar value to Porcello but with injury history, despite not being that similar a pitcher.

Re Randy Johnson: He was also striking out 10.2/9. The AL average was 5.4/9. For reference, his BB/9 was 6.2, the AL average was 3.4.
Eovaldi had an 8.2K/9, 1.6bb/9. The AL average was 8.5K/9, 3.2BB/9.

The two are nothing alike other than they both throw 100. Results wise, Eovaldi is more Greg Maddux or Roy Halladay than Randy Johnson. Keep the ball in the park and don't walk anyone.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Not even close to my point. I'm talking about being a prisoner of the moment after two great playoff starts.
I know, but age still has to factor into any contract, even the prisoner of the moment types.

Is Mike Lowell an example? I forgot what happened during the Mike Lowell negotiations and I'm not sure he really counts. He did pretty well for us anyway, minus being a statue the last 2 years.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
The difference with Nunez is thta
I'd like Eovaldi back, but it depends on the terms of the deal. I doubt teams are going to just ignore his injury history due to his post season heroics.

If it's something like 2 or 3 years at $10-12 annually, I'm on board. I could see an Eovaldi signing opening up some trade possibilities too but that's a topic for the off season.
That would be a very good deal. People seem to be forgetting that he's actually been a pretty good pitcher when healthy, and he's only going to be 29 next year. His WAR/30 starts since 2012 has been 2.4 (FG) or 1.9 (BBref), which would translate to between $15M and $19M/year in value. Of course there are a lot of question marks around his ability to make those thirty starts, but a deal in the $10-12M AAV range would be reasonably safe in terms of floor and leave room for some upside value. If they can get him for three years at under $40M, or even four years at under $50M, I'd do it.
 

nvalvo

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So you're not on board? Guy can throw 100. As @boogerpressley said last night, with any major improvement, he's one of the best pitchers in the game. Someone will take a chance on him, and that 5% chance he harnesses everything. At his age, Randy Johnson was walking 6 batters a game. I don't see him getting south of 3/50MM.
It's a singularly difficult season for FA contract predictions, because none of us know if last offseason was a blip or the new normal, but I don't think this is right.

Tommy John surgery is routine. Eovaldi's had two Tommy John surgeries. There are relatively few pitchers who have succeeded after two, let alone at a high level, and maintained that for a long period. It's true, and amazing, that Johnny Venters is back and pitching decently after his third TJS! A lot of guys come back. But usually, it's relievers, and usually a good outcome is something like Brian Wilson on the Dodgers; a bad one is Brandon Beachy on the Dodgers. There are exceptions, but the prognosis isn't amazing.

I can't see a team committing to him for three years, or even really two. My prediction: something like 1/$15, with a club option for 1/$18 that vests with some sort of moderate IP or G threshold, assuming he does not end the season on the DL.
 

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It's a singularly difficult season for FA contract predictions, because none of us know if last offseason was a blip or the new normal, but I don't think this is right.

Tommy John surgery is routine. Eovaldi's had two Tommy John surgeries. There are relatively few pitchers who have succeeded after two, let alone at a high level, and maintained that for a long period. It's true, and amazing, that Johnny Venters is back and pitching decently after his third TJS! A lot of guys come back. But usually, it's relievers, and usually a good outcome is something like Brian Wilson on the Dodgers; a bad one is Brandon Beachy on the Dodgers. There are exceptions, but the prognosis isn't amazing.

I can't see a team committing to him for three years, or even really two. My prediction: something like 1/$15, with a club option for 1/$18 that vests with some sort of moderate IP or G threshold, assuming he does not end the season on the DL.
I think this is spot on. People are disregarding, or at least minimizing the 2 TJS he's had. Committing 3-4 years to a guy like this is asking for trouble.
 

nvalvo

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I think this is spot on. People are disregarding, or at least minimizing the 2 TJS he's had. Committing 3-4 years to a guy like this is asking for trouble.
I looked into it a bit more. Jason Frasor had two, and succeeded for awhile, and Chris Capuano had 7 seasons of 85ish ERA+ starting pitching after his second.

There have been about 100 pitchers with multiple TJ surgeries. Those are the best outcomes.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I looked into it a bit more. Jason Frasor had two, and succeeded for awhile, and Chris Capuano had 7 seasons of 85ish ERA+ starting pitching after his second.

There have been about 100 pitchers with multiple TJ surgeries. Those are the best outcomes.
Did any sign long term contracts after their 2nd TJ? Did any get paid a significant amount? Capuano didn't, Frasor didn't either.
 

Cumberland Blues

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30 year old Brandon McCarthy - who seemingly never stays healthy for more than three weeks at a time - got 4x$12M. There is no way a 28yr old Eovaldi is signing for 3x9.

I think Eovaldi's stuff is terrific and I do hope they retain him - but only because I like watching him and it ain't my money. He's a high risk signing - because he will get paid, esp after performing well in October.
 

chawson

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30 year old Brandon McCarthy - who seemingly never stays healthy for more than three weeks at a time - got 4x$12M. There is no way a 28yr old Eovaldi is signing for 3x9.

I think Eovaldi's stuff is terrific and I do hope they retain him - but only because I like watching him and it ain't my money. He's a high risk signing - because he will get paid, esp after performing well in October.
Man, that offseason feels like a lifetime ago. A more recent comp could be Jhoulys Chacin, who put up a 2.5 bWAR season in 2017 (his age-29 season) before signing for 2/$16 million last season. OTOH, Chacin doesn't throw 100 mph.

We should see another shift in the pitching market this offseason after the Rays were so successful with the "opener" proof of concept, but somehow I doubt the Sox will be ahead of the curve on that trend. I don't see us adding Corbin, Ryu, or Happ as traditional starters, nor do we have many trade chips.

I'd give him the 3/$39m Cherington special. The injury risk is real but it's entirely possible this is Eovaldi's new baseline. That's the real reason to keep him. The fact that he's a Yankee killer and a former Yankee while under the age of 30 is just a bonus.
 
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When my kids allow me to have the remote, I turn on MLB network since it is usually the only baseball on at the time. The talk shows have a lot of clowns on them, including Eric Byrnes. Today he called Eovaldi the best pitcher in baseball. He didn't say hottest, or he has the best stuff, he said he was the best pitcher. I am glad Eovaldi is getting praise, but holy hyperbole. How do some of these guys get jobs? I think Chris Rose was legitimately embarrassed for him.
 

joe dokes

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Man, that offseason feels like a lifetime ago. A more recent comp could be Jhoulys Chacin, who put up a 2.5 bWAR season in 2017 (his age-29 season) before signing for 2/$16 million last season. OTOH, Chacin doesn't throw 100 mph.

We should see another shift in the pitching market this offseason after the Rays were so successful with the "opener" proof of concept, but somehow I doubt the Sox will be ahead of the curve on that trend. I don't see us adding Corbin, Ryu, or Happ as traditional starters, nor do we have many trade chips.

I'd give him the 3/$39m Cherington special. The injury risk is real but it's entirely possible this is Eovaldi's new baseline. That's the real reason to keep him. The fact that he's a Yankee killer and a former Yankee while under the age of 30 is just a bonus.
Maybe the newish normal is paying and just accepting that you might only get 2.5 of a 4 year deal.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
Maybe the newish normal is paying and just accepting that you might only get 2.5 of a 4 year deal.
I think that's pretty close to it. I think the (perhaps not so new) normal is to try to strike a deal where the value lies at about the mean between upside and downside scenarios. Let's say the downside scenario with Eovaldi is that his elbow falls apart again early next year and he's never any good again: 0 WAR. Let's say the upside scenario is that he's established a new level and builds on it, and can be a 3-WAR-ish pitcher for the next four years: 12 WAR. The mean of those two scenarios is about 4/$50M. I think that's a reasonable contract for him, but if people are leery of the 4-year commitment, say 3/$40M -- or what chawson suggested. I think that, or anything less than that, is a deal the Sox should be all over.
 

EllisTheRimMan

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3 yrs. @ 9 mil. per
If he wants to be a part of Red Sox Lore, I guess? To be honest I hope he gets a lot more because that likely means he wins impressively in Game 3 of the WS and is nails in potentially multiple relief appearances.
 
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Beale13

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When my kids allow me to have the remote, I turn on MLB network since it is usually the only baseball on at the time. The talk shows have a lot of clowns on them, including Eric Byrnes. Today he called Eovaldi the best pitcher in baseball. He didn't say hottest, or he has the best stuff, he said he was the best pitcher. I am glad Eovaldi is getting praise, but holy hyperbole. How do some of these guys get jobs? I think Chris Rose was legitimately embarrassed for him.
Don’t forget that when you’re talking about Eric Byrnes you’re talking about the guy that did this...


He’ll never be mistaken for a baseball genius.
 

gedman211

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I'd be shocked if he doesn't get at least a 4 year $72 million deal. Right now, he's the best pitcher on a World Series team. Hopefully after Sale's start tomorrow, he'll be the 2nd best. There are going to be a lot teams in on Eovaldi, the MFY foremost amongst them.
 

Average Game James

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I'd be shocked if he doesn't get at least a 4 year $72 million deal. Right now, he's the best pitcher on a World Series team. Hopefully after Sale's start tomorrow, he'll be the 2nd best. There are going to be a lot teams in on Eovaldi, the MFY foremost amongst them.
I get the he will be one of the better SP on the free agent market and has pitched well in the playoffs, but at least 4 years/$72mn? For a guy that has as many TJ surgeries as 2 WAR seasons and made 30 starts exactly once? If that's the case I hope he's wearing pinstripes next year because it will mean the Yankees are back to making stupid FA decisions again...