Euro 2020, round of 16, day 4: ENGvGER, SWEvUKR

dirtynine

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England vs. Germany in London
12 p.m. ET on ESPN
Latest odds: England +160, Draw +225, Germany +195


Sweden vs. Ukraine in Glasgow
3 p.m. ET on ESPN
Latest odds: Sweden +145, Draw +215, Ukraine +230
 

Kliq

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There will be a lot of attractive people in the stands for the Sweden vs Ukraine game, even if its in Scotland.
 

67YAZ

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After yesterday’s incredible display, can’t help but think today is going to be a dud.

Sweden is going to sit back and look to counter, but what is Ukraine going to do with the ball?

Plus, I’m doing my best to avoid the existential gnashing of English teeth that this English squad seems specifically designed to elicit.
 

coremiller

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After yesterday’s incredible display, can’t help but think today is going to be a dud.

Sweden is going to sit back and look to counter, but what is Ukraine going to do with the ball?

Plus, I’m doing my best to avoid the existential gnashing of English teeth that this English squad seems specifically designed to elicit.
As someone interested in the England team but without a strong rooting interest for England (although I'll be supporting them against Germany), watching the existential teeth-gnashing from afar is part of the fun.
 

Kliq

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I want to see England beat Germany; the ensuing days of pessimistic English fans getting rushed into "It's Coming Home" optimism will be glorious.
 

coremiller

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I want to see England beat Germany; the ensuing days of pessimistic English fans getting rushed into "It's Coming Home" optimism will be glorious.
Especially when follow it up by going out on penalties against Sweden.
 

67YAZ

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As someone interested in the England team but without a strong rooting interest for England (although I'll be supporting them against Germany), watching the existential teeth-gnashing from afar is part of the fun.
It triggers in me pre-2004 PTSD. Not every match is a referendum on your national character.They already had that big referendum and decided to become “Singapore on the Thames,” so their football should match that ambition.
 

coremiller

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That looks like a 3-4-3 with Trippier and Shaw as wing backs and Sterling/Saka flanking Kane in attack?

I really don't get Southgate. Saka is a nice player but he's starting him over Sancho, Grealish, Mount, and Foden, all of whom are better. And I get wanting 2 defensive midfielders but 2 DMs AND 3 CBs is extremely conservative. This could well turn into a broken 5-2-3 where the front 3 are isolated with no one to organize the midfield in possession and link play.
 

Kliq

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That looks like a 3-4-3 with Trippier and Shaw as wing backs and Sterling/Saka flanking Kane in attack?

I really don't get Southgate. Saka is a nice player but he's starting him over Sancho, Grealish, Mount, and Foden, all of whom are better. And I get wanting 2 defensive midfielders but 2 DMs AND 3 CBs is extremely conservative. This could well turn into a broken 5-2-3 where the front 3 are isolated with no one to organize the midfield in possession and link play.
Seems like the kind of game where Kane is going to drop further back to try and receive the ball and maybe make the key pass to one of the wingers/fullbacks running into space. They really don't have any creativity in central midfield, unless they get a monster game from Phillips.
 

coremiller

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Seems like the kind of game where Kane is going to drop further back to try and receive the ball and maybe make the key pass to one of the wingers/fullbacks running into space. They really don't have any creativity in central midfield, unless they get a monster game from Phillips.
Amazing that Southgate watched the last premier league season play out and his takeaway was to copy Mourinho's tactics.
 

DJnVa

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So, take lunch from 12-1 and watch first half at home or from 1-2 and watch second half? And then if it goes to ET I gotta rush back to work...and watch there.

Decisions, decisions.
 

Dummy Hoy

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2010 World Cup had the
E
A
S
Y
group for England...I was watching the final match day at The Field in Cambridge, knowing full well what a zoo the Landing would be. It was such a zoo that overflow quickly found its way around the corner to my pub. If you've been to The Field (R.I.P) you know there's a front room when you come in and a smaller back room with pool tables (where a few SoSHers watched me melt down during the playoff final 6 years later). The front room with the bar has the US/Algeria game on, and the back room they put on the England/Slovenia game. I had grabbed a seat at the bar which was important as the rest of the room soon became wall to wall with other humans.
*Side note, but on the bar stool to my right was RMPS favorite Naoko Funayama. She was quite plesant and had a good eye for the footy*
At half time things weren't going very well, England had a 1-0 lead and the US was tied 0-0 with Algeria; if the results held the US would be out. I went for a piss (and if anyone remembers, the men's room was very narrow there, you could barely squeeze past someone at a pisser or the sink) and bumped into two English chaps from the other half of the bar. I said something along the lines of "good for you guys, hopefully we can both get out" and they laughed and said something to the way of "we're quite happy with how things stand Yank" and left me dumbfounded at their attitude. That moment crystalized for me all English Arrogance...I felt a veil had been taken from my eyes. As far as I can remember I haven't rooted for England since, and that sure as shit isn't changing today.

Southgate is trying to match the 3-4-3 of the Germans. I know he'd been practicing 3 at the back in the qualifiers and pre-tournament games, but switching your system and throwing in players who haven't played in weeks mid-tournament doesn't strike me as a great idea. It cost Deschamps yesterday, hopefully the same is true today.

 

Zososoxfan

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That looks like a 3-4-3 with Trippier and Shaw as wing backs and Sterling/Saka flanking Kane in attack?

I really don't get Southgate. Saka is a nice player but he's starting him over Sancho, Grealish, Mount, and Foden, all of whom are better. And I get wanting 2 defensive midfielders but 2 DMs AND 3 CBs is extremely conservative. This could well turn into a broken 5-2-3 where the front 3 are isolated with no one to organize the midfield in possession and link play.
I came to post this exact sentiment. While Low was smart enough to start Goretzka this match, his continued use of 3 ATB is dumbfounding. I like Germany today 3-1, maybe 3-2 if England can pull one back late and make for an exciting finish. Or 0-0 with PKs with Germany going through.
 

teddykgb

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I’m going to go the other way. In spite of Southgate, England are better and Germany haven’t looked good to me except when Portugal failed to adjust to Gosens. Southgate looks to be making potentially a similar mistake starting 2 CDMs like Portugal did but it looks like he may have matched wingbacks and I just don’t know if Germany can create if you nullify them wide. I predict a cagey England win followed by a soul crushing defeat to Sweden because England are still England
 

The Gray Eagle

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That looks like a 3-4-3 with Trippier and Shaw as wing backs and Sterling/Saka flanking Kane in attack?

I really don't get Southgate. Saka is a nice player but he's starting him over Sancho, Grealish, Mount, and Foden, all of whom are better.
That's extremely debatable.

And I get wanting 2 defensive midfielders but 2 DMs AND 3 CBs is extremely conservative.
That's not.
Playing Saka isn't the problem, he is a good attacking player. The problem is playing too many defensive players and leaving tons of attacking talent on the bench.
 

coremiller

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So both sides matching 3-4-3s. My big concern for England is that matched formations tend to result in lots of individual battles, and Kroos/Goretzka in midfield are a lot more dynamic than Rice/Phillips. That means Germany are going to have a lot more of the ball in threatening positions.
 

Zososoxfan

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Pickford did really well to get off his line and clear that through ball for Werner. Germany were able to find 2 balls through the middle so far, but otherwise both sides pretty happy to hoof it up.
 

teddykgb

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So far I’m feeling less confident in the prediction because the two CDMs don’t seem to be able to show and progress the ball. Typically Phillips is wonderful at making himself available but they are really struggling to give options to the back line
 

coremiller

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England need more of that: a CB stepping into midfield to set up Sterling coming inside. That kind of positional fluidity will be needed to create attacks.
 

teddykgb

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Outside the Arsenal bubble, it’s really not. Sancho is miles better than Sako. Southgate is a moron for stapling him to the bench for Bukayo-fucking-Saka
I’m not sure it’s miles and Sancho doesn’t seem to be many manager’s favorites. Saka has been good anyway and England just have a strange amount of depth at that Cam/winger role. I think if Saka weren’t toiling away at a desolate Arsenal he’d have a lot more hype
 

DJnVa

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I never fail to enjoy a player yelling at the ref because he wants a foul called when his team was given advantage.
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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What's going on with Germany's tacking (or lack thereof)? It has been really terrible so far.

Fake edit: Well, there's a decent one.
 

coremiller

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I’m not sure it’s miles and Sancho doesn’t seem to be many manager’s favorites. Saka has been good anyway and England just have a strange amount of depth at that Cam/winger role. I think if Saka weren’t toiling away at a desolate Arsenal he’d have a lot more hype
I mean . . .


Code:
                                                           Play                            Perf                       Per                    Expe                         Per 
Player           Span  Nation Pos    Squad  MP Starts  Min  90s Gls Ast G-PK PK PKatt CrdY CrdR  Gls  Ast  G+A G-PK G+A-PK   xG npxG   xA npxG+xA   xG   xA xG+xA npxG npxG+xA
Jadon Sancho   Career eng ENG  FW Dortmund 104     82 7500 83.3  38  45   37  1     1    4    0 0.46 0.54 1.00 0.44   0.98 26.2 25.4 25.8    51.3 0.31 0.31  0.62 0.31    0.62
Bukayo Saka    Career eng ENG  FW  Arsenal  59     49 4314 47.9   6   8    6  0     0    7    0 0.13 0.17 0.29 0.13   0.29  8.2  8.2  8.2    16.5 0.17 0.17  0.34 0.17    0.34
Provided by FBref.com: View Stathead Tool Used
Generated 6/29/2021.
 

teddykgb

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I mean . . .


Code:
                                                           Play                            Perf                       Per                    Expe                         Per
Player           Span  Nation Pos    Squad  MP Starts  Min  90s Gls Ast G-PK PK PKatt CrdY CrdR  Gls  Ast  G+A G-PK G+A-PK   xG npxG   xA npxG+xA   xG   xA xG+xA npxG npxG+xA
Jadon Sancho   Career eng ENG  FW Dortmund 104     82 7500 83.3  38  45   37  1     1    4    0 0.46 0.54 1.00 0.44   0.98 26.2 25.4 25.8    51.3 0.31 0.31  0.62 0.31    0.62
Bukayo Saka    Career eng ENG  FW  Arsenal  59     49 4314 47.9   6   8    6  0     0    7    0 0.13 0.17 0.29 0.13   0.29  8.2  8.2  8.2    16.5 0.17 0.17  0.34 0.17    0.34
Provided by FBref.com: View Stathead Tool Used
Generated 6/29/2021.
Saka has just had his first season playing meaningful minutes in Prem I don’t really see the point of comparing their stats to this point
 

DennyDoyle'sBoil

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A couple of flawed teams. Footie is weird and momentum matters but it's hard to see the winner winning three more.
 

Zomp

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Saka has just had his first season playing meaningful minutes in Prem I don’t really see the point of comparing their stats to this point

Correct. One has just started playing meaningful minutes and the other is one of the top 5 players in the Bundesliga.
 

teddykgb

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A couple of flawed teams. Footie is weird and momentum matters but it's hard to see the winner winning three more.
That side of bracket is so open the winner here will fancy their chances.

One thing that would give me an ulcer if I were an England fan is the thought of Pickford vs Neuer in penalties
 

coremiller

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Germany are playing much more conservatively than I expected. They are not pressing and letting England have a lot of the ball in non-threatening positions, and then trying to hit transitions. England have struggled to generate anything dangerous from open play.
 

The Gray Eagle

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Outside the Arsenal bubble, it’s really not. Sancho is miles better than Sako. Southgate is a moron for stapling him to the bench for Bukayo-fucking-Saka
I'd take that opinion a little bit seriously if you knew how to spell his name. But hey you know all about him!
And the point is that it's very debatable that all 4 of those guys are better than Saka. Southgate stapled Sancho to the bench to play 3 central defenders and 2 defensive midfielders.
 

SocrManiac

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I can't figure out what either team is trying to do. England look like their back three haven't even had informal introductions to the guys in front of them.

I've seen a couple of long balls high in to Werner and I can't understand what the play is. He isn't going to hold up play even if he somehow wins it in front of Stones (and he won't, since he doesn't seem to like playing in the air). So weird.
 

Kliq

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Man, Hummels came so close to putting that clearance right on Saka's foot for a tap-in.