Everything Must Go? The 2022 Red Sox as Sellers?

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moondog80

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Just that there is a real chance their record will normalize a bit after they start playing some of the league's dregs, and they could easily enter Father's Day being 1 or 2 back from that (horrible) 3rd wild card spot.
By "horrible", do you mean that you don't like the idea of it, or that it's a worthless goal to pursue? The former is of course reasonable, but the way the playoffs are set up, the last wild card is effectively the same as being the 3rd best division winner, save for the fairly minor edge of homefield advantage.

I suspect you are right, that even in late July they will be within striking distance of the 3rd WC. And I say that as someone who would lean toward being sellers if they are right on that edge of *maybe* having a reasonable chance at the postseason.
 

lexrageorge

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By "horrible", do you mean that you don't like the idea of it, or that it's a worthless goal to pursue? The former is of course reasonable, but the way the playoffs are set up, the last wild card is effectively the same as being the 3rd best division winner, save for the fairly minor edge of homefield advantage.

I suspect you are right, that even in late July they will be within striking distance of the 3rd WC. And I say that as someone who would lean toward being sellers if they are right on that edge of *maybe* having a reasonable chance at the postseason.
Horrible in that I hate it. I’m more of a small playoff person for baseball.
 

YTF

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There's essentially no excuse for being this far back in the division this early. No one expected them to start this badly. I suspect that run to the ALCS last year has overshadowed some of their endemic flaws which once again have not been addressed this season. Add to that the lack of extensions for X and Devers, and there's very little reason to this this year is going to be sunshine and roses.

And I can't emphasize enough how utterly disgusted I am with the "personal choices" of some of the players. It's killing the team.
You've mentioned this in a couple of different posts. None of us are happy with the performance of this team to date, but winning the division isn't the only path to the playoffs and a 5 game deficit in in late April isn't the same as a 5 game deficit in late September. Don't get me wrong there's a shitload of work to be done here by this organisation, but we are going to advocate selling every April when things go south?
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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You've mentioned this in a couple of different posts. None of us are happy with the performance of this team to date, but winning the division isn't the only path to the playoffs and a 5 game deficit in in late April isn't the same as a 5 game deficit in late September. Don't get me wrong there's a shitload of work to be done here by this organisation, but are going to advocate selling every April when things go south?
I advocate not being left in the dust one month into the season.

I wouldn't sell now. I would start getting my ducks in a row now, however, because the deficit now might be an indication that come June and July you'll be looking at selling.
 

BaseballJones

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I advocate not being left in the dust one month into the season.

I wouldn't sell now. I would start getting my ducks in a row now, however, because the deficit now might be an indication that come June and July you'll be looking at selling.
I'm sure the front office has about a dozen contingency plans and ideas they've been working on. It's not like they'll "suddenly" wake up on July 18 and see that they're 12 games out and think, OMG we need to do something quickly!
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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I have a major rooting interest in Tanner Houck because he's a really good, young pitcher on my favorite team.
I would question how good he is given his lack of commitment to the team due to his stupid and selfish decisions.

Talent isn't just arm strength and movement and control. It's intelligence and wisdom and selflessness.

I don't need my players to be Rhodes scholars; Papelbon was dumber than ten dogs but was an asset to the team for a while. His career ended when his arm talents declined AND his personality became toxic. Houck has immeasurably hurt the team this year and has been a net negative, that's not because of his arm talents.
 

BaseballJones

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Career numbers of: 25 g (19 starts), 101.2 innings, 2.92 era, 159 era+, 1.09 whip, 10.7 k/9

I'd say pretty damned good.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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Worth pointing out that when Sale comes back, assuming he does and is also in the "personal choice" camp with the vaccine, he also won't be able to pitch in Toronto. A quick look at the schedule shows three games there at the end of June and another three from 9/30-10/2, the penultimate series of the season. That's at least 6 games where he can't contribute, barring a change in mind. That means they won't have the left-handed or right-handed Chris Sale for either series, both of which (especially that first one, if they are somehow still in it) are critical.

Also worth noting that vaccination status may affect how they do trades. One would assume they won't be dealing for an impact player who can't cross the border. One may also assume that they might have a tough time dealing an unvaccinated player to any team that's going to play the Blue Jays in Toronto this year (unless it's a 26th man type of player, which probably means a throw-in or traded for cash). I realize that's a short list, for now (not sure of vaccination status of any farm players who might get summoned), but it includes two guys that several have advocated moving on from if possible. I'm less bearish on Houck, if only because he's still young and it's only going to hurt him financially to keep fighting it, plus I don't think the organization is that keen to give up on a pitching prospect from their system given the weak track record over the last few seasons, and doubt they could move Sale without having to subsidize the deal, so it might be moot anyway.
 

Niastri

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I have a major rooting interest in Tanner Houck because he's a really good, young pitcher on my favorite team.
Normally I agree with this sentiment.

Somehow, though, choosing to skip games because of his delusional thinking has made Houck into an exception. I hope Houck is off the team as quickly as possible because I'll never root for him and it makes rooting for the team less fun.

Previous players, say, not believing in dinosaurs was amusing, but didn't directly hurt the team.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Normally I agree with this sentiment.

Somehow, though, choosing to skip games because of his delusional thinking has made Houck into an exception. I hope Houck is off the team as quickly as possible because I'll never root for him and it makes rooting for the team less fun.

Previous players, say, not believing in dinosaurs was amusing, but didn't directly hurt the team.
Ok. You do you. I'm still going to root like crazy for the guy when he's on the mound for the Sox and I hope he turns into a stud pitcher for Boston.
 

sean1562

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They have had a particularly rough stretch this last 12 games, playing every day, traveling from Tampa to Toronto, and going 4-8. The Blue Jays and Rays are good teams and the Twins are not pushovers. Not having Houck and Crawford in the middle of a 17 day stretch of games every day is hard on the bullpen. This early in the season, they just need one small win streak to bump their record back up. We have a 3 game series against the Orioles and then 3 games against the Angels. We should be able to make some headway then.
 

SoxFanInPdx

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The sheer stupidity on the field for this team the past 2-3 seasons has made watching this current squad infuriating, besides the unexpected WS push late last season. Some of these mistakes are pretty inexcusable imo and should not be happening. It's one thing if something goes haywire, but the base running mistakes and this team just not producing in any aspect so far is just insane.

Last night was the first time this team scored 5 runs or more since 4/17 against the Twins. 6 of those runs came in the 8th inning against the Twins bullpen. This team has the 6th highest payroll in the game and they struggle to score runs against even mediocre pitching staff's. Currently, this team just has no discipline at the plate and the rate they're just up there hacking at everything is pretty damning. Currently, they're chasing 36.2% outside the zone. That is 15% more than any other team.

The last series they've won was against the Tigers and that was 2 weeks ago, even that series was a real challenge for them. The red flags are abundant in this first month and the body language they have is all wrong. That extra innings game in Tampa should have been the catalyst to turn it around, but instead the bullpen comes in and blows the game.

I get that it is early in season, but this team is showing some pretty bad signs out of the gate. If this keeps up for another 2-3 weeks, it is time for the front office to start compiling a list of players to offload. Problem is, the return on most of them is pretty low at the moment. The fact that Houke couldn't even make the trip is terrible and selfish - these games matter. These first two games in Toronto have been winnable, but with Houke not being there it puts the team in a pickle now and moving forward the rest of the season.

This team is just not a fun watch so far and the worst part is that they're boring and predictable. Bloom has a ton of work to do here.
 

Mr. Stinky Esq.

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Nope, he can't help the team in the games in Toronto. But he can - and does - help the team the rest of the season, which is a hell of a lot.
There are two more series in Toronto. Then say we're lucky enough to see the Sox make the playoffs. What are the chances their potential road to the World Series doesn't go through Toronto? Of course Cora could work around it for the most part but even just with respect to the recent tactic of using starters in relief on their throw days in the playoffs, it would alter the team's approach.
 

chawson

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It's too early, and there are so many weird factors this year to make sense of it right now. Kike is currently running an infield fly rate of almost 50 percent. The team should be trying like hell to fix this mechanical issue, but I expect he'll improve soon. Devers' plate discipline has not carried over. Verdugo seems to have taken a nice step forward, and I'm not worried about Story or Bogaerts.

I'm an In Bloom We Trust guy half the time. The other half I'm puzzled by what seems like a wasted opportunity to compete in the last year (or two) with this core, when spending money has no roster-building penalty. Bloom seems eager to get to his ideal next team.

My guess is that the expanded playoffs changed the trade market landscape last offseason. More middling teams would want to hold on to players to see if they can squeak in, and other tanking teams with trade assets (Oakland) may see a sellers' market in the summer with even more teams on the cusp.

I prefer winning to losing. I wish we had dropped $50M on Rodon or $90M on Seiya Suzuki, who's excelling in virtually everything the Sox are bad at right now. But I'm sure I could talk myself into some interesting seller trades if the Sox decide to put Kike, Eovaldi, JDM, Vaz, Wacha or even Bogaerts on the market.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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There are two more series in Toronto. Then say we're lucky enough to see the Sox make the playoffs. What are the chances their potential road to the World Series doesn't go through Toronto? Of course Cora could work around it for the most part but even just with respect to the recent tactic of using starters in relief on their throw days in the playoffs, it would alter the team's approach.
This is a great point. It's almost impossible for any playoff road to not go through Toronto at this point. With all the same caveats that it's still early, they have the third most wins in the league already behind two NL teams, and they do not have the flaws that some other AL East teams have. They are going to be a very tough out for anyone and I dare say that they have a slight competitive advantage with the vaccination requirements in Canada. It's not like the Red Sox will be the only team having to keep guys home when they go across the border, requirements not likely to end soon.

They have had a particularly rough stretch this last 12 games, playing every day, traveling from Tampa to Toronto, and going 4-8. The Blue Jays and Rays are good teams and the Twins are not pushovers. Not having Houck and Crawford in the middle of a 17 day stretch of games every day is hard on the bullpen. This early in the season, they just need one small win streak to bump their record back up. We have a 3 game series against the Orioles and then 3 games against the Angels. We should be able to make some headway then.
The Angels are 11-7 and have arguably the two best players in the AL. They may do what they always do, but they've come out hot and will not be a pushover for the light-hitting Red Sox. I wouldn't look too forward to that series. At this point, I'm not even sure we should look forward to the Baltimore series.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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There are two more series in Toronto. Then say we're lucky enough to see the Sox make the playoffs. What are the chances their potential road to the World Series doesn't go through Toronto? Of course Cora could work around it for the most part but even just with respect to the recent tactic of using starters in relief on their throw days in the playoffs, it would alter the team's approach.
If they had a 7-game playoff series against Toronto, I assume that Cora would simply arrange to use Houck in the games in Fenway. That would (a) take the load off his pitching staff in those games as Houck would get those innings, and then (b) free them up to pitch in Toronto.

It's not ideal because you'd rather be able to make a game-by-game determination regarding his usage, but it's something you could work around if you knew in advance it was going to be the situation.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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I prefer winning to losing. I wish we had dropped $50M on Rodon or $90M on Seiya Suzuki, who's excelling in virtually everything the Sox are bad at right now. But I'm sure I could talk myself into some interesting seller trades if the Sox decide to put Kike, Eovaldi, JDM, Vaz, Wacha or even Bogaerts on the market.
In my ideal world, Wacha pitches well enough for them to get something good for him at the trade deadline. Nothing personal against him; I just think he's not that great and so I don't have a lot of confidence in him being a key piece for the Sox at the end of the season. So my hope is that he pitches great and just as Sale and Paxton are returning, they're able to trade Wacha for a really nice little return.

Of course if he's pitching great, and the Sox are in the mix, this place will lose its collective mind if Chaim trades him. LOL
 

Mr. Stinky Esq.

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If they had a 7-game playoff series against Toronto, I assume that Cora would simply arrange to use Houck in the games in Fenway. That would (a) take the load off his pitching staff in those games as Houck would get those innings, and then (b) free them up to pitch in Toronto.

It's not ideal because you'd rather be able to make a game-by-game determination regarding his usage, but it's something you could work around if you knew in advance it was going to be the situation.
I don't think it's that simple or rosy. Planning to only use Houck at Fenway in a playoff series with Toronto would at least impact the team's ability to use him in relief on his throw day, which has been pretty effective in the team's recent playoff runs.

Take a 7 game series and assume the middle 3 games are at Fenway. He's probably only available to pitch once in a 7 game series. Even if he starts game 3, his throw day - the day he would conceivably be available out of the bullpen - would be the off day between games 5 and 6. So, given how deep he goes into games, we maybe get 5 or 6 innings out of him in a 7 game series if we're lucky.

Not great, Bob.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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I don't think it's that simple or rosy. Planning to only use Houck at Fenway in a playoff series with Toronto would at least impact the team's ability to use him in relief on his throw day, which has been pretty effective in the team's recent playoff runs.

Take a 7 game series and assume the middle 3 games are at Fenway. He's probably only available to pitch once in a 7 game series. Even if he starts game 3, his throw day - the day he would conceivably be available out of the bullpen - would be the off day between games 5 and 6. So, given how deep he goes into games, we maybe get 5 or 6 innings out of him in a 7 game series if we're lucky.

Not great, Bob.
Yeah, obviously it's not preferred, as I said in my post. I just think you can work with it to minimize the negatives. We'd all prefer him to be available in whatever ballpark they're playing in.
 

chawson

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In my ideal world, Wacha pitches well enough for them to get something good for him at the trade deadline. Nothing personal against him; I just think he's not that great and so I don't have a lot of confidence in him being a key piece for the Sox at the end of the season. So my hope is that he pitches great and just as Sale and Paxton are returning, they're able to trade Wacha for a really nice little return.

Of course if he's pitching great, and the Sox are in the mix, this place will lose its collective mind if Chaim trades him. LOL
Ha, true. I doubt anyone sees Wacha as substantially improved but he looks like a serviceable replacement-level starter right now, and that's not nothing. (I also think we underappreciate just how good a pitcher Paxton is, if healthy.)

One problem I see with the selling route is that we're already looking at a 40-man crunch, right? It seems like there's a ton of prospects (Casas, Hamilton, Jimenez, Rafaela, Walter, Ward, German, Wallace, et al.) getting into upper-level territory worth protecting. The roster already looks like it'll need to make a 4-for-1 deal or two soon enough.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Ha, true. I doubt anyone sees Wacha as substantially improved but he looks like a serviceable replacement-level starter right now, and that's not nothing. (I also think we underappreciate just how good a pitcher Paxton is, if healthy.)

One problem I see with the selling route is that we're already looking at a 40-man crunch, right? It seems like there's a ton of prospects (Casas, Hamilton, Jimenez, Rafaela, Walter, Ward, German, Wallace, et al.) getting into upper-level territory worth protecting. The roster already looks like it'll need to make a 4-for-1 deal or two soon enough.
Well I'd be okay with that too.

Maybe deal a few high level prospects to get a young stud from another team that sees the financial writing on the wall for that player in a couple of years. They get to rebuild with the prospects and the Sox get a stud. Then the Sox move players like Wacha and maybe some relievers and restock the farm system.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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FWIW, Houston - the defending AL champs - are just 8-9, and are in 4th place in their division, 3 games out of first. I wonder how much panic is happening over at SonsOfJRRichard?
 

Petagine in a Bottle

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It’s a frustrating start with some concerning signs, for sure, but there’s 144 games left. Plenty of time to right the ship.

Fangraphs currently projects the Sox to finish with 83 wins, with the Jays at 94, Yankees at 92, Rays at 84. Sox would finish tied for 6th in the AL with the Mariners.

So I think the biggest concern is that the Jays and Yankees appear to be much better teams than the Sox, but I think we knew that going into the year.
 

jon abbey

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That Astros team is minus Correa. That makes a big difference.
That's not it, his replacement (Jeremy Pena) has been a stud who has decidedly outplayed Correa so far (1.0 bWAR for Pena, -0.1 for Correa). HOU hasn't hit much collectively but it's not the SS's fault.
 

CreedBratton

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Yes. And this team is without Sale and Paxton, lost Schwarber and Renfroe from last year's squad, and has had JD and Story miss a good percentage of their games so far.
Not sure this team can count on those guys. Sale is a nothing going forward. If they make a couple nice trades tho Sox can definitely get a wild card.
 

Yelling At Clouds

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Not sure this team can count on those guys. Sale is a nothing going forward. If they make a couple nice trades tho Sox can definitely get a wild card.
I get that there are a lot of emotions tied up in the Sale situation, but a lot of the forecasts of doom for him have been over the top. In nine healthy starts last year, he had 52 Ks in 42 innings and a 3.35 xFIP. He had some bad batted-ball luck. That’s not Chris Sale, 2017 Edition, but it’s also not “nothing.”
 

jon abbey

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FWIW, BTV has Houck currently as valuable a trade commodity (projected performance, salary, years of control) (48.8) as Bogaerts (23.4) and Whitlock (24.2) combined. I completely get the frustration but if Chaim really wanted to move him, teams would be lined up and they could get a lot back presumably, vaccinated or not.

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/
 

gattman

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FWIW, BTV has Houck currently as valuable a trade commodity (projected performance, salary, years of control) (48.8) as Bogaerts (23.4) and Whitlock (24.2) combined. I completely get the frustration but if Chaim really wanted to move him, teams would be lined up and they could get a lot back presumably, vaccinated or not.

https://www.baseballtradevalues.com/trade-simulator/
Huh. This is really interesting. I get the X part ( rental, the $, not great D), but any idea why BTV has Houck that much more valuable than Whitlock? Would have guessed they’d be very close.

As an aside, I have a fevered dream where Sale, Eovaldi, Paxton, Wacha & Hill are all healthy in the 2nd half and the Sox have Whitlock, Houck & Pivetta as multi-inning relief aces . . .
 

jon abbey

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Huh. This is really interesting. I get the X part ( rental, the $, not great D), but any idea why BTV has Houck that much more valuable than Whitlock? Would have guessed they’d be very close.
Maybe just Whitlock’s guaranteed salaries? That site is still fairly new and sometimes buggy.
 

gattman

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Maybe just Whitlock’s guaranteed salaries? That site is still fairly new and sometimes buggy.
Thanks, I wasn’t too familiar with that site previously. I still think Houck right now reminds me of (& probably has a similar trade value to) Justin Masterson. I would happily take a Victor Martinez in return. (I’d throw in a Nick Hagadone to get it done)
 

Apisith

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Given the way Eovaldi is pitching, he's our most valuable trade bait. Trading him wouldn't preclude us re-signing him as well.
 

cantor44

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Wow. In the early sixties, the teams I followed were 40 games under .500, and such a list wouldn't have been even considered until July 4th. Impatience has become a virtue in the twenty-first century.
Speier: The Sox haven’t reached the playoffs after posting a losing record through 23 games since 1967, and they’ve never reached the postseason after a start that was this bad.
 

Lose Remerswaal

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From Speier:

"the Sox haven’t reached the playoffs after posting a losing record through 23 games since 1967, and they’ve never reached the postseason after a start that was this bad."
They have also never played a full season where 6 teams in each league qualify for the playoffs.
It’s a glib comment from Speier.
 

moondog80

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Given the way Eovaldi is pitching, he's our most valuable trade bait. Trading him wouldn't preclude us re-signing him as well.

*IF* they end up going that route, they'll have a few nice pieces. Eovaldi, Xander, JD should bring a nice return, especially give our ability to eat their money. Kike and Wacha could bring a couple of lottery tickets. And if they decide a Devers extension just isn't going to happen...
 

Apisith

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*IF* they end up going that route, they'll have a few nice pieces. Eovaldi, Xander, JD should bring a nice return, especially give our ability to eat their money. Kike and Wacha could bring a couple of lottery tickets. And if they decide a Devers extension just isn't going to happen...
Eovaldi’s xFIP is as good as his ERA right now, and he has a good track record at this stage. I think he would be our most valuable trade chip. We should get a top 100 prospect for him.

If the QO is still in place, I could see Xander waiving his no-trade clause to make him an even more attractive signing in FA. The trade deadline comes after the deadline to get rid of the QO, so this is something worth watching.
 

Mueller's Twin Grannies

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Is Bogaerts going to waive his NTC to switch teams mid-season before he opts out?
I think he will if he really thinks he isn't going to get the deal he wants here AND the new team commits to playing him at SS, especially if it's a contender. I don't think he'll go if he can't continue on at his desired position.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Thanks, I wasn’t too familiar with that site previously. I still think Houck right now reminds me of (& probably has a similar trade value to) Justin Masterson. I would happily take a Victor Martinez in return. (I’d throw in a Nick Hagadone to get it done)
Masterson isn't as good as I remember him being. I thought he had a few more 110-120 ERA+ type seasons but he only had 2. He went 94, 84, 122, 79, 110, 71 in his time with the Indians, for an ERA+ of 93. 924 ip of 93 ERA+ over 6 seasons or 775 PA of 126 OPS+ at the C position over 2 seasons. I'd do that too if I was convinced Houck was Masterson. I think he's a bit better. It's probably more like giving up Eduardo (value wise). If the C was young enough to keep around for longer than 2 years, bye.
 

Niastri

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Is Bogaerts going to waive his NTC to switch teams mid-season before he opts out?
Would you be willing to move for a few months in order to play baseball on a playoff team instead of a loser trading away it's best players?

Perhaps just as importantly... Would choosing to stay on a losing team instead of accepting a trade to a tank with Works Series aspirations hurt his value as a free agent?
 
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