Expanded September rosters

Plympton91

bubble burster
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Oct 19, 2008
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@Plympton91 just said, “And, given their revenue advantage over Tampa, Toronto, and Baltimore, any year they don’t at least finish in second place in the East, is an abject failure of management.”
Yup. I don’t know how you can have the highest payroll in the game and accept 3rd place in the Division and 7th place in the League as a good ROI.
 

YTF

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In addition to the bad drafts, they also had the total breakdown of organizational discipline in the Latin American signing scandal that cost them 3 years of penalties there, and when they, like the Yankees, had the chance to sell off two highly valued top of the rotation starters at the trade deadline, they got back an expensive, recalcitrant one-dimensional slugger, a guy who had a potentially career ending injury and a 4 year guaranteed contract, an an enigmatic high upside swing man with only 4 years of control left. The Yankees got Glebar Torres, for a partial season of Chapman.
The Yankees also finished fourth in the division that year. It was easier to sell.
 

judyb

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Jul 18, 2005
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Who they proceeded to flip for a 25 year old pitcher who won the Cy Young for them a year later. Come on, be fair.
The guy who gave them that pitcher for that slugger is the one who's making decisions for them now, to be fair he's also the guy who got Max Scherzer when he had Curtis Granderson to sell.
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
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Jul 10, 2007
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The wrong side of the bridge....
The guy who gave them that pitcher for that slugger is the one who's making decisions for them now, to be fair he's also the guy who got Max Scherzer when he had Curtis Granderson to sell.
To also be fair, Porcello's overall record for the Sox suggests that DD's estimate of him may have been more on target than Cherington's. Over the course of his career, Porcello's Cy year is a clear outlier; he was a fringe-average pitcher for seven years before that, and he's been a fringe-average pitcher for the three years since.

Meanwhile, DD turned Cespedes around for Fulmer, who has turned out to be a reasonable Porcello replacement, and Cessa, who was then flipped by DD's successor for a decent reliever (who was then further flipped for a guy who is now a top-5 hitter in the Eastern League at 20, and a top 100 prospect per Baseball America). Not a bad return overall for a guy who, remember, had one cost-controlled year left when DD traded him.
 

stepson_and_toe

New Member
Aug 11, 2019
386
In the five seasons that Porcello has pitched for the Red Sox, he has a 71-53 record but if you take away his 22-4 season in 2016, he has been 49-49. So, has he been worth the $95M they are paying him for that time?
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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In the five seasons that Porcello has pitched for the Red Sox, he has a 71-53 record but if you take away his 22-4 season in 2016, he has been 49-49. So, has he been worth the $95M they are paying him for that time?
I don't think he was worth it even if you include his Cy Young Award season (4.8 WAR). Even if you go by $9 mil per 1 WAR, Rick Porcello has 9.1 WAR to date with the Redsox. That would put him at $81.9 million. He would have to put up another 1.5 or so WAR in September to be worth it. With that said, it was hardly a disaster of a contract and we did win a WS in 2018 and Porcello played a part in that.

He was pretty good in 2018 (3.1 WAR) too but he actually managed to put up a negative WAR in 2017 (-0.2), hasn't been much better this year (0.9) and was also terrible in 2016 (0.5). He's arguably hurt the team more than he helped in 3 of his 5 seasons here. So there's that.
 

axx

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Jul 16, 2005
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Aaron Judge is an exception, not the norm. Most highly regarded prospects make it to the show around 22, 23.
Judge hit .224 at 23 when he was first promoted to AAA. Had he done better he might have gotten a Sept callup.
 

stepson_and_toe

New Member
Aug 11, 2019
386
Not really the right thread for this, but you can cherrypick 75% of players one way or the other to suit your agenda
You didn't say which post you were citing as cherrypicking but since it followed immediately after my post on Porcello, I'm assuming it was mine.

I'm not sure how asking whether a pitcher's performance with one team that produced one great season out of five and four other seasons that added up to a .500 winning percentage merited the amount of money paid to him by the team amounts cherrypicking. And I didn't even mention what they gave up for him.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Dec 22, 2002
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@Plympton91 just said, “And, given their revenue advantage over Tampa, Toronto, and Baltimore, any year they don’t at least finish in second place in the East, is an abject failure of management.”
Yeah I don't agree with him there at all especially with the Yankees in the division. If a team finishes last 5-6 years in a row, they should have a pretty stocked farm system that allows them to compete for a few years until they can't afford to keep the group together. Baltimore would be in a completely different situation with a competent owner. The Rays are also on pace to win 92 games and won 90 games last year. It's basically saying the Sox need to win at least 93 games every single year or they are a failure.

The counter point here is that.... Basically it seems close to impossible. The only teams that have been anywhere nearly as competitive as the Sox over the past 20 years, along with having a consistenly top 10 farm system... don't really exist. Someone upthread pointed out the closest to those teams and they're respective post-season success is less than the Sox. I know in theory it'd be nice to have both... but it seems closer to impossible. You're either going to have success like the Cardinals, Astros, Cubs, Yankees, Dodgers over the past 20 years or success like the Sox have had over the past 20 years. And I suspect every fan of those other teams would pick the Sox level..... probably.....
But if the question is; going forward, due to new constraints... will the Sox farm system not be able to graduate in the talent that they have over the past 5 years along with using it to bring in additional talent in order to keep the team a playoff caliber team? Then that's a whole other issue than what's being discussed. And I'm not a prospect-phile but didn't they just have a Grade A draft only a month ago? Could this recent draft be the beginning of a new 6 year cycle?
We are talking past each other. I don't expect the Redsox to have a top 10 farm system, I expect them to have a middling farm system. Right now they are in the bottom 5. Granted the difference between a middling farm system and a bottom 5 system is about 2 top 100 prospects. 1 good draft can literally move a team from bottom 5 to top 10. I just want them to have another top 100 prospect besides Triston Casas and Casas himself will probably be ranked somewhere between 50-100 because he's completely 1 dimensional.
 

judyb

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Jul 18, 2005
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In the five seasons that Porcello has pitched for the Red Sox, he has a 71-53 record but if you take away his 22-4 season in 2016, he has been 49-49. So, has he been worth the $95M they are paying him for that time?
No, but if they hadn't given him that contract as soon as they traded for him, they might have been able to keep him for a lot less after his crappy 2015 season. He's like the JBJ of SPs awful stretches followed by useful ones where he at least eats innings, and has an occasional great game.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
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Dec 22, 2002
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Judge hit .224 at 23 when he was first promoted to AAA. Had he done better he might have gotten a Sept callup.
He was also drafted out of college. Betts, Xander, Devers were not. Benny was but Benny rose through the system really quick. Usually college players make their debut at older ages (duh) for obvious reasons.
Xander 20 years, 323 days old
Devers 20 years, 314 days old
Betts 21 years, 265 days old
Benny 22 years, 27 days

Other Sox players
Vazquez 23 years, 322 days
Chavis 23 years, 252 days
JBJ 22 years, 347 days
Sam Travis 23 years, 270 days
Marco Hernandez 23 years, 224 days
Swihart 23 years, 29 days
Lin 23 years, 129 days
Pedroia 23 years 5 days.


I'd also argue that the whole benefit of having young players on your team is that they are cheap and cost controlled. It's great Betts is 26 but the Sox are paying him $20 million because he's been around awhile. The Yankees are paying the 27 year old Judge less than $700,000.
 

chawson

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Aug 1, 2006
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The guy who gave them that pitcher for that slugger is the one who's making decisions for them now, to be fair he's also the guy who got Max Scherzer when he had Curtis Granderson to sell.
Cespedes for Porcello was a good deal for both sides, mostly because Yo didn’t want to be here and IIRC more or less said so.

Had Dombrowski had the guts to move Porcello after his lucky-as-hell 2016 season, that could have been interesting — though you can’t rewrite that story without affecting 2018. Some of the guys moved that offseason were Mitch Haniger, Ketel Marte, Jean Segura, Mallex Smith, Ryan Yarbrough, and Luis Castillo.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Mar 11, 2007
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Yeah I don't agree with him there at all especially with the Yankees in the division. If a team finishes last 5-6 years in a row, they should have a pretty stocked farm system that allows them to compete for a few years until they can't afford to keep the group together. Baltimore would be in a completely different situation with a competent owner. The Rays are also on pace to win 92 games and won 90 games last year. It's basically saying the Sox need to win at least 93 games every single year or they are a failure.



We are talking past each other. I don't expect the Redsox to have a top 10 farm system, I expect them to have a middling farm system. Right now they are in the bottom 5. Granted the difference between a middling farm system and a bottom 5 system is about 2 top 100 prospects. 1 good draft can literally move a team from bottom 5 to top 10. I just want them to have another top 100 prospect besides Triston Casas and Casas himself will probably be ranked somewhere between 50-100 because he's completely 1 dimensional.
Sure..... I wouldn't be surprised in 2 years or so that the Sox end up having a top ten system... but it likely will only last a few seasons before they drop back down. I'm not sure if it'll ever be consistent and likely only teams that are consistently out of contention will have consistently good farm systems. I don't think anyone would want that. I'd like to know which general club (farm system and MLB taken together) you would change places with putting the current Sox club at the middle of a 20 year expanse (last 15 year success and the next 5 year general outlook). I'd still hedge my bets that the Sox will have more success at the ML level between 2020 and 2025 than a team with a kickass farm system like the Braves right now.
Basically saying that while it would be nice to have both the level of Sox MLB success along with a consistently top ranked farm system, it actually looks like it's impossible.
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
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Jul 10, 2007
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The wrong side of the bridge....
Sure..... I wouldn't be surprised in 2 years or so that the Sox end up having a top ten system... but it likely will only last a few seasons before they drop back down. I'm not sure if it'll ever be consistent and likely only teams that are consistently out of contention will have consistently good farm systems.
Except that a team with a consistently good farm system would seem unlikely to remain consistently out of contention, unless their front office is addicted to Bagwell-for-Andersen trades.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Except that a team with a consistently good farm system would seem unlikely to remain consistently out of contention, unless their front office is addicted to Bagwell-for-Andersen trades.
Tampa Bay? But consider a team with Tampa's resources and with Red Sox payroll.... they likely wouldn't exist. Dodgers probably come the closest. The issue is that when you have a string of successful seasons, you're drafting lower. When you have success, you're less likely to take chances on the fringe players that you may already have a ML player at that position and they end up dealt for Middle Relievers to attempt to make a complete team. I don't think Bagwell for Anderson is exactly what prevents it... it's more like Josh Reddick for injured reliever X.... or dealing away top ten prospect Y for a half season of a bullpen rental.
This is all borderline hypothetical.... since the entire organization that we'd all love (top ten farm system, Red Sox level of success since '04) doesn't exist.
 

BaseballJones

ivanvamp
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Oct 1, 2015
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I think it's been made clear that a franchise that consistently is a big winner, that "regularly" wins championships (let's say, 4 every 20 years), *AND* has a consistently great or even good farm system.... is a unicorn. Simply does not exist.

The Sox have won 4 championships in the last 16 years, and has at various points had a loaded farm system. They've turned their young studs into MLB studs (by promotion or trade) that have helped them win championships. When that's happened, they've left the farm system somewhat barren and in need of replenishment.

Isn't that pretty much how it's supposed to work?
 

jon abbey

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Jul 15, 2005
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I think it's a mistake to combine past, present and future discussion, especially given the major changes in the past decade in terms of statistical analysis (launch angle, spin rates, a million other things) plus the multiple different CBAs that teams have been operating under. My quick perspective from the other side of the rivalry:

Past: Obviously the past 18 years since John Henry bought the team have been deeply successful overall, 4 WS championships since then is the most of any team in MLB.

Present: They are coming off the best team in franchise history and a dominant postseason run, they basically reassembled the same team and it hasn't worked, but still it's hard to complain here IMO given any big picture sense.

Future: This is the concern, and this is where IMO the past starts to matter a lot less. @Sandy Leon Trotsky says "I wouldn't be surprised in 2 years or so that the Sox end up having a top ten system" but that doesn't seem to be based on anything other than a belief that these things naturally go in cycles, sometimes they do but sometimes they don't. The Dodgers and Astros and Yankees are attempting to build personnel not just for now but for the longer term, the group of minor league pitchers that the Yankees currently have on the way (Deivi Garcia, Clarke Schmidt, Luis Medina, Roansy Contreras, Luis Gil, Miguel Yajure, Mike King) would scare the crap out of me as a Sox fan, not to mention the highly touted Jasson Dominguez. This is where the Sox seem to be falling behind badly, not just NY but TB and HOU and LAD and other teams also, this is what would deeply worry me if I were a Sox fan. How many of the 29 other organizations would swap talent with BOS right now, majors/minors combined, including salary commitments and spending power? I think less than half.
 

Sandy Leon Trotsky

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Mar 11, 2007
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I think it's a mistake to combine past, present and future discussion, especially given the major changes in the past decade in terms of statistical analysis (launch angle, spin rates, a million other things) plus the multiple different CBAs that teams have been operating under. My quick perspective from the other side of the rivalry:

Past: Obviously the past 18 years since John Henry bought the team have been deeply successful overall, 4 WS championships since then is the most of any team in MLB.

Present: They are coming off the best team in franchise history and a dominant postseason run, they basically reassembled the same team and it hasn't worked, but still it's hard to complain here IMO given any big picture sense.

Future: This is the concern, and this is where IMO the past starts to matter a lot less. @Sandy Leon Trotsky says "I wouldn't be surprised in 2 years or so that the Sox end up having a top ten system" but that doesn't seem to be based on anything other than a belief that these things naturally go in cycles, sometimes they do but sometimes they don't. The Dodgers and Astros and Yankees are attempting to build personnel not just for now but for the longer term, the group of minor league pitchers that the Yankees currently have on the way (Deivi Garcia, Clarke Schmidt, Luis Medina, Roansy Contreras, Luis Gil, Miguel Yajure, Mike King) would scare the crap out of me as a Sox fan, not to mention the highly touted Jasson Dominguez. This is where the Sox seem to be falling behind badly, not just NY but TB and HOU and LAD and other teams also, this is what would deeply worry me if I were a Sox fan. How many of the 29 other organizations would swap talent with BOS right now, majors/minors combined, including salary commitments and spending power? I think less than half.
While admitting, yes... as a Sox fan that the long term outlook due to the strength of other teams and especially The Yankees farm systems looks heads above the Sox... I also remember being terrified of the Yankees farm system in the mid 00's. Phil Phranchise, Joba, Kennedy, and so many others that were going to be the backbone of the team up through today almost all never even made it on to to have an impact with the ML level team. Teams that have expected competitive teams end up using a lot of those guys for short term rentals, trades at lesser value (due to having someone "blocking" them), or just trades that don't pan out (for either side usually). All that said... yeah... it'd sure be nice to have a team that had a Buchholz, Masterson, Bowden, (There was another "Killer B" pitcher that I'm blanking on....), also Pedroia, Ellsbury, Reddick, Anderson, Khalish all sitting in the farm system adding value, no question.
 

jon abbey

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While admitting, yes... as a Sox fan that the long term outlook due to the strength of other teams and especially The Yankees farm systems looks heads above the Sox... I also remember being terrified of the Yankees farm system in the mid 00's. Phil Phranchise, Joba, Kennedy, and so many others that were going to be the backbone of the team up through today almost all never even made it on to to have an impact with the ML level team. Teams that have expected competitive teams end up using a lot of those guys for short term rentals, trades at lesser value (due to having someone "blocking" them), or just trades that don't pan out (for either side usually). All that said... yeah... it'd sure be nice to have a team that had a Buchholz, Masterson, Bowden, (There was another "Killer B" pitcher that I'm blanking on....), also Pedroia, Ellsbury, Reddick, Anderson, Khalish all sitting in the farm system adding value, no question.
Again, you need to stop looking to the past for comparisons because they're almost always not as relevant as they may seem. And of course minor leaguers aren't sure things going forward, major leaguers aren't either. That being said, I have not seen a study but I am pretty sure that highly touted prospects are more successful on average these days than ever before, the game continues to get younger and scouting/projections continue to get better. If you look at a top 100 MLB prospect list from 2/3/4 years ago, I think you'll be surprised at how many of those guys have already been successful and how few have flamed out.
 

DanoooME

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Again, you need to stop looking to the past for comparisons because they're almost always not as relevant as they may seem. And of course minor leaguers aren't sure things going forward, major leaguers aren't either. That being said, I have not seen a study but I am pretty sure that highly touted prospects are more successful on average these days than ever before, the game continues to get younger and scouting/projections continue to get better. If you look at a top 100 MLB prospect list from 2/3/4 years ago, I think you'll be surprised at how many of those guys have already been successful and how few have flamed out.
To your point, here's the top 10 from BP in 2016.

1. Corey Seager
2. Byron Buxton
3. Lucas Giolito
4. J.P. Crawfford
5. Nomar Mazara
6. Julio Urias
7. Yoan Moncada
8. Joey Gallo
9. Steven Matz
10. Alex Reyes

Crawford isn't great, but is finally getting a full shot. Reyes has had injury issues, but he's still only 25 and if/when he gets healthy he'll have a job in the majors. The rest have ranged from average to pretty damn good.

Other notables from that year: #13 Trea Turner, #17 Jose Berrios, #18 Aaron Judge, #21 Blake Snell, #27 Dansby Swanson, #35 Rafael Devers, #37 Ozzie Albies, #39 Alex Bregman, #41 Gleyber Torres, #46 Andrew Benintendi, #49 Josh Bell, #57 Wilson Contreras, #60 Max Kepler, #92 Gary Sanchez,

There are a lot of injury cases, where the guy has the talent, but just can't stay healthy (Reyes, Tyler Glasnow, Brendan Rodgers, Jose DeLeon, David Dahl, Grant Holmes, Jameson Taillon, Brett Honeywell, Clint Frazier, Hunter Harvey, Francis Martes, Anderson Espinoza, Michael Fulmer, Kyle Zimmer, Franklyn Kilome, Michael Kopech)

True flops are few and far between: #43 Aaron Blair, #55 AJ Reed, #56 Javy Guerra, #64 Mark Appel, #97 Eddy Julio Martinez. That's about it.
 

Plympton91

bubble burster
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Oct 19, 2008
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So, getting slightly back on track, the Sox called up 4 more pitchers yesterday. There’s an article on MLB.com where it discusses a process in which Cora convinced the organization to give him more bullets after Porcello blew up again Tuesday night. It sounds as if we’re going to get a bunch of Joe Madden style 10-reliever games where you try to steal every matchup advantage going forward in a last ditch attempt to craft a 10-game winning streak and get back into this.

As long as you’re into 4-hour nine inning games this should be quite interesting. I’ve been wondering why this guy Kelly hasn’t gotten more run. His one major league game to date had an ugly box score but he got completely hosed by the home plate umpire. All he’s done is get people out at every level. Maybe he can be a Chad Bradford type.