Expectations for Patriots season, after game 8

[Eddie Jurak]

Preseason expectations (median expectation: 5 or 6 wins):

• 4 or fewer wins: 36.5%
• 5 or 6 wins: 49.0%
• 7 or 8 wins: 11.5%
• 9 or 10 wins: 0%
• 11 or more wins: 2.9%

After game 4 expectations (median expectation: 4 or fewer wins):

• 4 or fewer wins: 77.5%
• 5 or 6 wins: 20.9%
• 7 or 8 wins: 1.1%
• 9 or more wins: 0.5%

 

[Eddie Jurak]

I was 5-6 after the preseason and I stuck with 5-6 after 4 weeks, but the Miami loss and the defensive collapse that followed it broke me. I picked 3-4.

 

[Gash Prex]

Really depends on Maye’s availability - I think they will be competitive if Mayo can straighten out the defense to be average and Maye plays. There signs of progress on the offense line and AVP

 

[8slim]

Pretty sure I was in the 4 or fewer camp when the season started.

They’ll probably still pick off another W or 2 because it’s the NFL.

 

[Steve Dillard]

Who are the Chefs?

 

[cshea]

Give me 3 more wins and I will be ecstatic.

 

[mikeford]

I think that was probably the last W if Maye is out for a significant time. And he looks like an NFL QB so they should probably take it slow with a head injury.

 

[Justthetippett]

The Maye injury sucks but hopefully he'll be back within the next few weeks. They are in the soft part of their schedule the next 6 weeks. Would not be shocked if they win a couple. If the +\- was 4.5, I'd pick the over. Guys are playing and coaching for their jobs (probably more so than some others) and that will be a powerful motivator.

 

[Seels]

I don't care about w/l. The draft sucks so it makes no difference whether they're like 3 or 11 at this point.

My expectation is that we have answers prior to the draft of who is on this team, both in the FO and as the 53. I hope it's clear whether or not Wolf / Mayo and the some of the 1st and 2nd year players are the plan going forward. That's it.

 

[P'tucket rhymes with...]

I had a brief moment when five or six seemed possible after Maye came on, but I'll stick with four, where I started. Today's win was fun and exciting, but the Jets are so much less than the sum of their parts that it's hard to know what to make of it, particularly now that Maye has his first concussion on the books.

 

[Mugsy's Walk-Off Bunt]

Maye is going to miss THREE GAMES with that concussion?

 

[P'tucket rhymes with...]

Maye is going to miss THREE GAMES with that concussion?

I'm morbidly interested in hearing the hypothetical argument for bringing him back any faster.

 

[sal16cal]

Maye is going to miss THREE GAMES with that concussion?

He’s not.

 

[Gash Prex]

I’m no concussion expert but it seemed pretty mild given he stayed in and made a great throw that Boutte dropped - certainly no fencing response or other symptoms immediately after other than slow to get up. A couple of years ago he finishes that game and nobody blinks an eye

My guess is they are being extra cautious with a young player

 

[Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache]

I said 5 before the season and I really want to stick with that, but when I got over the rest of the schedule I see

• Two games that feel like plausible wins (Miami if Tua is limited/out, Titans next week)
• Four games against teams that are likely going to finish around 7-9 wins; maybe we steal one of these? (Bears, Rams, Colts, Cardinals)
• Three season-ending games against teams that should win 10+ (Bills, Chargers). Good night.

Three wins from that schedule feels like a bit of a stretch and probably hinges a lot on Maye coming back and leading us to a couple of those 'any given Sunday' upsets

Fuck it. I'll stick with five wins. Next stop: slightly-below-average, baby! LFG underwhelming mediocrity!

 

[Bergs]

I’m no concussion expert but it seemed pretty mild given he stayed in and made a great throw that Boutte dropped - certainly no fencing response or other symptoms immediately after other than slow to get up. A couple of years ago he finishes that game and nobody blinks an eye

My guess is they are being extra cautious with a young player

Also, it's really good for the organization to lose more games. They fucked that up today, and I enjoyed it just because of Aaron Rodgers, but winning games in 2024 is not good for this franchise.

 

[Justthetippett]

Also, it's really good for the organization to lose more games. They fucked that up today, and I enjoyed it just because of Aaron Rodgers, but winning games in 2024 is not good for this franchise.

I think they need a few wins to not go into the offseason wanting to kill themselves. I'd sacrifice a few spots in a draft where they don't need a QB for the team to start understanding what it feels like to not completely suck. That it came at Rodgers expense is a nice bonus.

 

[chilidawg]

Getting a taste of what it takes to win tough games is far more valuable long term than a couple slots in the draft. Tons of cap room on top of good draft choices could change things quickly.

 

[streeter88]

I said 5 before the season and I really want to stick with that, but when I got over the rest of the schedule I see

• Two games that feel like plausible wins (Miami if Tua is limited/out, Titans next week)
• Four games against teams that are likely going to finish around 7-9 wins; maybe we steal one of these? (Bears, Rams, Colts, Cardinals)
• Three season-ending games against teams that should win 10+ (Bills, Chargers). Good night.

Three wins from that schedule feels like a bit of a stretch and probably hinges a lot on Maye coming back and leading us to a couple of those 'any given Sunday' upsets

Fuck it. I'll stick with five wins. Next stop: slightly-below-average, baby! LFG underwhelming mediocrity!

Edit: @Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache did it better than me.

Titans might be a good win - as long as Maye can come back healthy. Otherwise, I can't see more than 2 more wins in the last 9 games. Maybe they beat Miami if something further happens to Tua? Maybe Indy could be beaten? Maybe the Cardinals could be had?

But to be honest it all counts for nothing if Drake Maye doesn't come back healthy and continue to develop.

 

[j-man]

as far as talent goes next game if your best shot at a win
@ TENN - 50% 60 with maye
@ chi 25% 40 with maye
rams 20%
@ mia 30%
indy 50% unless they start flacco than 35%
@ zona 30%
@ buff 5%
LAC 10%
Buff 50 if their seed is final 5% if not
6-11 at best
3-14 at worst

 

[Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache]

Also, it's really good for the organization to lose more games. They fucked that up today, and I enjoyed it just because of Aaron Rodgers, but winning games in 2024 is not good for this franchise.

It kinda depends on what you see as resulting in those wins

Just for the sake of the exercise, imagine we have a magic wand that let's us pick between two options:

• Door #1: After their early season yips and injuries, Ja'Lynn Polk and Caedan Wallace come back and play increasingly well over the last half of the season, both looking like league-average starters as rookies at their positions by the final month of the season. In addition, one of our '24 second-day draft picks gets into some games and surprises everyone (dealer's choice on who... I'll take Jaheim Bell replaces a benched Hooper and shows impressive blocking and receiving chops as a young TE). As a consequence of all this the Patriots pick three slots lower in each round of the upcoming draft.
• Door #2: None of the above happens. After Maye none of the other players drafted last year show anything to suggest they'll be average-or-above NFL starters. Compared to door #1 the Patriots pick three slots higher in each round of the upcoming draft.

I'm taking Door #1 every day of the week and twice on Sunday. Even if it means we win 5-6 games instead of 3-4.

But then I think we're drafting top 5 no matter what happens the rest of the way. So I'm 100% rooting for young player development and wins, since I suspect where we draft in the top 5 matters less than having a bunch of our younger players turn into starter-quality NFL players

 

[NoXInNixon]

Also, it's really good for the organization to lose more games. They fucked that up today, and I enjoyed it just because of Aaron Rodgers, but winning games in 2024 is not good for this franchise.

It's never good for an organization to lose games. If you want the Patriots back in the playoffs as soon as possible, you should be rooting for them to win. Losing games means you are bad. Winning games means you are good. Winning means it's more likely that Mayo is a good coach. Winning means the players on this team are better than we think they are. Winning means Maye is a good QB. All those things are worth way, way more than a slightly higher draft pick.

 

[cshea]

Yeah, I said it in the game thread, but I'd gladly sacrifice draft position for a few wins. They have the QB on the roster so it's not as dire as a year ago where they needed a top 2-3 pick to acquire a QB. I'd rather be 5-12 with the 5th pick this year than 2-15 with the #1 pick. 5-12 would mean they go 4-6 over their last 10 (3-6 now) and if Maye gets back and continues on an upward trajectory then you become a more attractive destination for free agents and can build it back up. Plus you still have a really high draft pick to work with, even if it's not the #1. With the right moves you can probably squint on playoff contention next season.

I just think it's really, really hard to turn around 2-15/3-14 disasters. Even if Maye is a bright spot it's tough to flip that around quickly.

 

[rodderick]

Yeah, I said it in the game thread, but I'd gladly sacrifice draft position for a few wins. They have the QB on the roster so it's not as dire as a year ago where they needed a top 2-3 pick to acquire a QB. I'd rather be 5-12 with the 5th pick this year than 2-15 with the #1 pick. 5-12 would mean they go 4-6 over their last 10 (3-6 now) and if Maye gets back and continues on an upward trajectory then you become a more attractive destination for free agents and can build it back up. Plus you still have a really high draft pick to work with, even if it's not the #1. With the right moves you can probably squint on playoff contention next season.

I just think it's really, really hard to turn around 2-15/3-14 disasters. Even if Maye is a bright spot it's tough to flip that around quickly.

100% in agreement. Not to mention, good luck flipping the first overall pick in a bad QB class.

 

[IdiotKicker]

After Week 4, I had them at 4-5 wins, and I’m still in that camp. They’re bad, but even bad teams find a way to win a quarter of the time in the NFL. They’ll likely have a top 5-7 pick that is either OL or WR, and with a few additions, they’ve got a platform to get to 6-8 wins in 2025.

 

[Mugsy's Jock]

I'd be good with a top 5 pick, which I think could still include just enough juice to trade down for an extra 2nd or something.

Just don't want to be south of maybe 1-8. I don't expect that'll be a problem.

 

[Justthetippett]

Getting out of the Top 3 in this draft means you are probably out of the desperate trade up for a QB conversation with others. But those teams (Car, Tenn, NO, LV etc) might be up there anyways. I think they can still make some hay with a Top 6 or so pick. It's must less stressful when you already have a QB in house to build with, that's for sure.

 

[Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache]

I said 5 before the season and I really want to stick with that, but when I got over the rest of the schedule I see

• Two games that feel like plausible wins (Miami if Tua is limited/out, Titans next week)
• Four games against teams that are likely going to finish around 7-9 wins; maybe we steal one of these? (Bears, Rams, Colts, Cardinals)
• Three season-ending games against teams that should win 10+ (Bills, Chargers). Good night.

Three wins from that schedule feels like a bit of a stretch and probably hinges a lot on Maye coming back and leading us to a couple of those 'any given Sunday' upsets

Fuck it. I'll stick with five wins. Next stop: slightly-below-average, baby! LFG underwhelming mediocrity!

So, we just lost one of those 'plausible wins' from the first group

20% chance we don't win another game the rest of the way: 2-15
40% chance they pull off one upset somewhere with Maye heroics: 3-14
30% chance they pull off two upsets (this scenario leans heavily on the Bills having nothing to play for the last week of the regular season): 4 -13
10% chance they win three of eight against significantly better teams: 5-12


updated guess: 3 wins

 

[wilked]

Anticipated point spreads the rest of the way:

@Bears (+6)
Rams (+6)
@Dolphins (+8)
Colts (+3.5)
@Cardinals (+7)
@bills (+13.5)
Chargers (+6.5)
Bills (+9.5)

Going to be a tough run...

 

[Bigdogx]

Anticipated point spreads the rest of the way:

@Bears (+6)
Rams (+6)
@Dolphins (+8)
Colts (+3.5)
@Cardinals (+7)
@bills (+13.5)
Chargers (+6.5)
Bills (+9.5)

Going to be a tough run...

I hope so, this team needs talent not worthless wins that mean nothing.

Do fans here understand that no good free agents are walking through that door, the draft is the only way to improve this team right now.
To get 2 or 3 more wins this season to put yourself in the 10-20 draft area would be just another setback for this team imo. Rooting for wins is essentially rooting to make improving this team more difficult. The point here is to give your young and cheap quarterback the tools needed to win before he demands top dollar. We dont have 3 years to piece it together here, this is why many of us screamed to not draft a qb for a team that clearly is not ready to win anytime soon. The cart before the horse method rarely if ever works out in the NFL.

I hope for this teams sake they lose every single game left on the roster!

 

[JoeSuit]

I don't think there's such a thing as a "win that means nothing" especially with a young team. There's experience, player development, coach development, team attitude, etcetera. My friend Herm says you play to win the game. Losing begats losers.

 

[Trapaholic]

Looking at the schedules of the other 2-7 teams, I really don't think we need to sweat out the possibility of the Patriots winning their way out of a top 2 pick. Jacksonville plays Tennessee twice. New Orleans plays the Browns and the Giants. The Raiders play Jacksonville and New Orleans. Hopefully, someone actually wins those games and they don't end in a tie.

Carolina has a pretty tough schedule, so they will absolutely be in the mix. Ideally, the coaching improves in the second half of the season and guys can play themselves into defined roles. We can root for tangible improvements on an individual level with the expectation that this team has very little talent and probably won't win more than 1 more game this season.

The whole thing sucks, and I really do believe that teams need to "learn" how to win. Next year, all bets are off. They'll need to hit on most of their picks and drastically improve coaching or they will need to slam the brakes and start over gain.

 

[dynomite]

I don't think there's such a thing as a "win that means nothing" especially with a young team. There's experience, player development, coach development, team attitude, etcetera. My friend Herm says you play to win the game. Losing begats losers.

I guess so, although i will say Dan Campbell went 3-13-1 his first season with the Lions, and Parcells and Belichick both went 5-11 their first season with the Pats. I'm just not too worried about winning games right now.

Getting out of the Top 3 in this draft means you are probably out of the desperate trade up for a QB conversation with others. But those teams (Car, Tenn, NO, LV etc) might be up there anyways. I think they can still make some hay with a Top 6 or so pick. It's must less stressful when you already have a QB in house to build with, that's for sure.

Right, all the coverage I've seen suggests this is one draft where there won't necessarily be a "desperate trade up" for a QB. Athletic today has Sanders #3 overall (to Raiders) and Cam Ward #6 overall (to Giants). https://www.nytimes.com/athletic/5902443/2024/11/07/nfl-mock-draft-2025-travis-hunter-cam-ward/

Reminds me a bit of the 2001 draft where Vick went #1 but there wasn't another QB taken until Brees (whoops) in the 2nd round. And as we all know, the Pats could have had impact players David Terrell or Koren Robinson or the last decent receiver in Robert Ferguson, and instead settled for Richard Seymour and Matt Light who wouldn't help anytime soon.

Anyway, I think it really depends upon the grade they have on these OT/WR/whatever available in the top 5. If one of them is worth the pick I don't mind taking them.

 

[Ferm Sheller]

Hopefully, someone actually wins those games and they don't end in a tie.

Actually, I think a tie by opponents would be the best possible outcome in a race to the bottom. A tie is as good as a win for each team (i.e., the opponents who you're competing with for the highest overall pick).

 

[Trapaholic]

Actually, I think a tie by opponents would be the best possible outcome in a race to the bottom. A tie is as good as a win for each team (i.e., the opponents who you're competing with for the highest overall pick).

I hadn't considered that as I didn't look into the different permutations. Now that I know, I guess we are lucky the Titans game didn't end in a tie lol

 

[NextBigThing8184]

I hope so, this team needs talent not worthless wins that mean nothing.

Do fans here understand that no good free agents are walking through that door, the draft is the only way to improve this team right now.
To get 2 or 3 more wins this season to put yourself in the 10-20 draft area would be just another setback for this team imo. Rooting for wins is essentially rooting to make improving this team more difficult. The point here is to give your young and cheap quarterback the tools needed to win before he demands top dollar. We dont have 3 years to piece it together here, this is why many of us screamed to not draft a qb for a team that clearly is not ready to win anytime soon. The cart before the horse method rarely if ever works out in the NFL.

I hope for this teams sake they lose every single game left on the roster!

Why would “no good free agents walk through the door”?

we saw plenty of bad teams in the league land plenty of high priced and/or quality FA last year

 

[sezwho]

Why would “no good free agents walk through the door”?

we saw plenty of bad teams in the league land plenty of high priced and/or quality FA last year

And the world can change real fast if the QB rep continues to grow.

You can’t tell me there aren’t going to be a couple WRs out there (or even a tackle?) that watched the atrocity of ‘receiver’ performance in this shit show season and think Maye could be their meal ticket if he keeps playing like this.

 

[Ferm Sheller]

I hadn't considered that as I didn't look into the different permutations. Now that I know, I guess we are lucky the Titans game didn't end in a tie lol

You know, this has me thinking: I've been a Pats fan since the late 70s and I don't think that I've ever seen a Pats game end in a tie.

 

[j-man]

u guys can beat the coits and maybe the bears

 

[Al Zarilla]

I guess so, although i will say Dan Campbell went 3-13-1 his first season with the Lions, and Parcells and Belichick both went 5-11 their first season with the Pats. I'm just not too worried about winning games right now.

Or, Mayo could end up on the scrap heap like a lot of other coaches that inherited mediocre to bad teams which didn’t improve while they were in charge. Rust, McPherson and Mazur were some with the Patriots. Gibron with the Bears, Saleh, Kotite and Coslet with the Jets, about ten different consecutive Browns coaches going back from current Stefanski to Belichick. It goes on and on. You’re talking about two HOF coaches and the fastest rising right now star coach in the league. Saying Mayo could follow in their footsteps is, like, whoa. Gun to head, I’d put him in the not gonna last category,

 

[dynomite]

Or, Mayo could end up on the scrap heap like a lot of other coaches that inherited mediocre to bad teams which didn’t improve while they were in charge. Rust, McPherson and Mazur were some with the Patriots. Gibron with the Bears, Saleh, Kotite and Coslet with the Jets, about ten different Browns coaches going back from current Strefanski to Belichick. It goes on and on. You’re talking about two HOF coaches and the fastest rising right now star coach in the league. Saying Mayo could follow in their footsteps is

No question, I'm not trying to suggest Mayo is the next Dan Campbell, just skeptical that we can tell based on the 2024 Patriots record whether Mayo is a good future HC.

u guys can beat the coits and maybe the bears

Possible, but as I said before the season started: I don't care whether the team finishes 3-14 or 5-12. They're bad.

My question remains whether Maye continues to look good. If they lose to the Bears 34-27 and Maye throws for 300 yards and 3 TDs and Polk flashes soft hands and makes contested catches, I'll be thrilled.

 

[Curt S Loew]

You know, this has me thinking: I've been a Pats fan since the late 70s and I don't think that I've ever seen a Pats game end in a tie.

I thought I remembered one from way back, so I went to the Google machine. Nope.

They haven't had a tie since OT was introduced in 1974. Their last one was 1967.

There's been 29 ties since OT was introduced in 1974.

 

[Ferm Sheller]

There's been 29 ties since OT was introduced in 1974.

I was thinking that there's been about one tie a year, but this suggests that there's been closer to one every other year. I'm surprised it doesn't happen more often given the number of games that go to OT.

 

[Curt S Loew]

I was thinking that there's been about one tie a year, but this suggests that there's been closer to one every other year. I'm surprised it doesn't happen more often given the number of games that go to OT.

Yeah. It averages out to about one every other year, but there's no consistency. In fact there wasn't one tie from 1990-1996 and also none from 1998-2001. There were 2 in 1997.

https://www.pro-football-reference.com/friv/nfl-ties.htm

 

[NomarsFool]

If they lose to the Bears 34-27 and Maye throws for 300 yards and 3 TDs and Polk flashes soft hands and makes contested catches, I'll be thrilled.

One can reasonably believe that if the Patriots do absolutely nothing of import this offseason, that next season the defense will be much better with the return of some of their injured players, the development of Gonzo, etc. So, I don't really need them to show signs of being a competent defense this season - I need them to show some life on offense (which they have started to do with Maye). But, he can't do it all on his own. He can't throw the ball and catch the ball.

 

[Eric Fernsten's Disco Mustache]

One can reasonably believe that if the Patriots do absolutely nothing of import this offseason, that next season the defense will be much better with the return of some of their injured players, the development of Gonzo, etc. So, I don't really need them to show signs of being a competent defense this season - I need them to show some life on offense (which they have started to do with Maye). But, he can't do it all on his own. He can't throw the ball and catch the ball.

This isn't wrong...

..and I'd just be careful about presuming health, or health to the players that matter most

 

[Justthetippett]

One can reasonably believe that if the Patriots do absolutely nothing of import this offseason, that next season the defense will be much better with the return of some of their injured players, the development of Gonzo, etc. So, I don't really need them to show signs of being a competent defense this season - I need them to show some life on offense (which they have started to do with Maye). But, he can't do it all on his own. He can't throw the ball and catch the ball.

They have to improve the depth and talent on their roster everywhere. Injuries have hurt them this year, but even if Barmore and Bentley were playing this is a weak unit with few, if any, elite playmakers. They need help at all three levels. I'd put EDGE in the discussion for the early R1 pick, along with WR and OT. Id settle for competence and good organization out of the unit the rest of the year.