Expectations for the 2022 Pats

[Super Nomario]

I think it's a middling team. The two best units from the past couple seasons have been the OL and the secondary, but both got tangibly worse with the losses of Mason and JC Jackson. What is the best unit on this team? What is it good at? I don't know. There probably aren't any fatal flaws, but I'm not sure they have anything to hang their hat on, either.

 

[Bongorific]

I think it's a middling team. The two best units from the past couple seasons have been the OL and the secondary, but both got tangibly worse with the losses of Mason and JC Jackson. What is the best unit on this team? What is it good at? I don't know. There probably aren't any fatal flaws, but I'm not sure they have anything to hang their hat on, either.

The running backs room?

 

[Jungleland]

I expect them to be playing good football come Thanksgiving. While the improvements across the AFC make comparisons to the 2020 and 2021 rosters somewhat moot, I’m pretty optimistic that the roster is better than last year outside of JC. And though he’s a big loss, I expect a healthy Jon Jones and two promising rookies to offset the secondary downgrade some.

My main worry is that it will be too late, especially with the December schedule as tough as it is. A win against Miami in week 1, even if completely ugly, would go a long way for my season expectations.

 

[Harry Hooper]

The running backs room?

Could be rendered a non-factor if the OL cannot block well.

 

[lexrageorge]

Could be rendered a non-factor if the OL cannot block well.

Don't disagree. But I do find it interesting how much the bad practice days get noticed, but yesterday's practice was given positive reviews across the board, especially for the Pats offense and OL.

 

[Salem's Lot]

A win against Miami in week 1, even if completely ugly, would go a long way for my season expectations.

If the offensive line can get it together in time to win in Miami in week 1, then the entire trajectory of the season changes for me.

 

[nattysez]

I like doing this Mike and the Mad Dog style:

L @ Miami
W @ Pittsburgh
L vs. Baltimore*
L @ Green Bay
W vs. Detroit
L @ Cleveland*
W vs. Chicago (MNF)
W @ NY Jets
L vs. Indy
BYE
W vs. NY Jets
W @ Minnesota (Thanksgiving)
L vs. Buffalo (TNF)
L @ Arizona*
L @ Las Vegas (SNF)
L vs. Cincy
W vs. Miami
L @ Buffalo

7-10, which could jump to 10-7 if they win the three asterisked games.

If the defense is excellent, I think they can beat Arizona and Baltimore, but I can't count on that at this point.

Beating Cleveland requires good offensive line play, which seems optimistic.

I'm glad we're all mentally preparing for the post-Thanksgiving stretch - it could be pretty rough.

 

[54thMA]

If the offensive line can get it together in time to win in Miami in week 1, then the entire trajectory of the season changes for me.

The comical thing is of all years, watch them go to Miami and win.

 

[4 6 3 DP]

We still have BB and a good quarterback, voted 11-12, and almost voted 12+. I think we are about to make run #3 of this dynasty.

 

[The Social Chair]

The defense will be OK against lesser teams, but it's the offense that is the major concern for me. Patricia and Judge learning on the job, with a 2nd year QB and a shaky o-line, is not ideal.

7 - 8 wins seems about right.

 

[The Social Chair]

I think we are about to make run #3 of this dynasty.

Show your work.

 

[Mugsy's Jock]

6 or 7 wins. The talent level is fair to good, but coaching may not be the big advantage it has traditionally been due to all the changes in the staff.

But most importantly, the AFC is just so imposing. I wouldn’t count on more than 3 wins division, maybe not more than two.

 

[Garshaparra]

7-10. The DBs are unproven, or proven as sub-par (I'm looking at Mills and Bryant especially). The d-line remains undersized to stop runs, and when they put the extra man in to cover the run, the DBs will get carved up by any decent QB. Thankfully, the Pats will not be playing against many decent QBs, so they'll still win a good number of games. Going through the schedule, after the first month, this is likely to be the wildest 2 streaks in team history:

@MIA - L
@PIT - W
vBAL - L
@GB - L - 1-3 through the first month, uh oh

vDET - W
@CLE - W
vCHI - W
@NYJ - W
vIND - W
vNYJ - W - OMG they're 7-3 now, In Bill We Trust!

@MIN - L
vBUF - L
@ARZ - L
@LVR - L
vCIN - L
vMIA - L
@BUF - L - 7-10, we're like everybody else

The only games I see swinging during that brutal last 7 game run are @MIN and vMIA, but I think Tua with weapons will truly be dangerous and will spell doom. Cousins is still an above average QB, and I expect that to be the beginning of the end.

 

[ifmanis5]

9 wins, miss the playoffs in a strong AFC.

Same here.
Likely a better team than last year but the AFC is stacked.

 

[axx]

6 or 7 wins. The talent level is fair to good, but coaching may not be the big advantage it has traditionally been due to all the changes in the staff.

But most importantly, the AFC is just so imposing. I wouldn’t count on more than 3 wins division, maybe not more than two.

I am not really feeling it either but they should be able to sweep the Jets. I mean it's the Jets. I like 8 wins but could see 9. Making the playoffs looks tough.

 

[BuellMiller]

My spreads may be way off from expected, but I'm thinking something like this:

[TH]Game[/TH] [TH]Spread[/TH]

at MIA	6​
at PIT	-4​
vs BAL	0​
at GB	6​
vs DET	-7​
at CLE	-5​
vs CHI	-9​
at NYJ	-4​
vs IND	-3​
vs NYJ	-10​
at MIN	1​
vs BUF	2​
at ARI	2​
at LVR	4​
vs CIN	2​
vs MIA	-3​
at BUF	8​

which gives an expected win total of 8.92 (using the simple regression for each game of win% = -0.0303*spread+0.50), which seems right to me. (and of course that last game against Buffalo could be a lot different, if they don't have anything to play for)

 

[EvilEmpire]

I think 9-10 wins and borderline for the playoffs. Two biggest unknowns being how the O-line and offensive unit coaching perform. If the line is as problematic as it could be, even if he manages to stay upright, I think Mac's development will be impeded and the offense will suffer. What offensive playcalling and coaching/coordination will look will be interesting. Not sure why BB is doing things this way, but he's the GOAT, so we'll see.

Maybe BB just doesn't want to deal with the hassle of losing any more senior coaches before he retires. Given this weird setup, I don't think Patricia and Judge are going to get poached anytime soon.

 

[SawtoothPatsFan]

I doubt I'm covering any new ground here, but I'm not too worried about the RBs, WRs, TEs, special teams or even the OL. May not always be pretty or flashy, but I expect that these units will get the job done. However, that still leaves two BIG question marks.

(1) Mac Jones. It's a QB driven league. If he takes a step forward performance wise, 10 wins should be the baseline, unless the defense is non-functional (more on this below). He doesn't have to be Tom Brady 2.0, but I would happily sign up for "2021 regular season Joe Burrow." That said, if Mac gets injured, or doesn't improve on last year's play, then I agree with posters above predicting 7 wins or fewer.

(2) The Defense. I have no idea what to expect here. Bill has forgotten more about coaching defense than I will ever know. But whether due to injury, age or scheme, they were non-competitive at times down the stretch last year. They should field a faster defense this year, and have a handful of young players that could end up being solid contributors (Josh Uche, any Jones not named "Jon" or "Mac," etc.) but are essentially untested. Even if the best case scenario plays out, Mac Jones is probably going to have to win some shoot outs.

Long and short, put me down for 10-7. Mac Jones builds on last year, and the defense (eventually) figures out how to get a stop or two when it counts.

 

[Rico Guapo]

I doubt I'm covering any new ground here, but I'm not too worried about the RBs, WRs, TEs, special teams or even the OL. May not always be pretty or flashy, but I expect that these units will get the job done. However, that still leaves two BIG question marks.

(1) Mac Jones. It's a QB driven league. If he takes a step forward performance wise, 10 wins should be the baseline, unless the defense is non-functional (more on this below). He doesn't have to be Tom Brady 2.0, but I would happily sign up for "2021 regular season Joe Burrow." That said, if Mac gets injured, or doesn't improve on last year's play, then I agree with posters above predicting 7 wins or fewer.

(2) The Defense. I have no idea what to expect here. Bill has forgotten more about coaching defense than I will ever know. But whether due to injury, age or scheme, they were non-competitive at times down the stretch last year. They should field a faster defense this year, and have a handful of young players that could end up being solid contributors (Josh Uche, any Jones not named "Jon" or "Mac," etc.) but are essentially untested. Even if the best case scenario plays out, Mac Jones is probably going to have to win some shoot outs.

Long and short, put me down for 10-7. Mac Jones builds on last year, and the defense (eventually) figures out how to get a stop or two when it counts.

Just looking at the playoff game last year at Buffalo: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/202201150buf.htm#all_vis_snap_counts

KVN played 97% of defensive snaps, Hightower 84%, SlowJuan Williams 74%, Jamie Collins 61%

IMO the defense is immediately better by not having these four on the field and while the loss of JCJ hurts I think they may have hit on Marcus and Jack Jones. Yes there will be growing pains and mental mistakes along the way but as a whole the unit will be much much faster. I'm also cautiously optimistic some of the younger DL and edge players will have more of an impact and take pressure off Judon.

 

[sodenj5]

(1) Mac Jones. It's a QB driven league. If he takes a step forward performance wise, 10 wins should be the baseline, unless the defense is non-functional (more on this below). He doesn't have to be Tom Brady 2.0, but I would happily sign up for "2021 regular season Joe Burrow." That said, if Mac gets injured, or doesn't improve on last year's play, then I agree with posters above predicting 7 wins or fewer.

I know this is a Pats thread and board, but Joe Burrow threw for 4600 yards and 34 TDs last year.

Mac needs to take a significant step forward to have a season that good.

 

[djbayko]

Quick hijack to let everyone know that the annual SoSH Survivor Pool is currently underway. Visit the thread below and put your name in ASAP if you want to buy any shares or half shares. I know a lot of you probably don't visit the Fiskful subforum often.

https://sonsofsamhorn.net/index.php?threads/2022-survivor-pool-logistics.37293/

 

[rodderick]

The middle of that schedule is ridiculously soft, as long as they don't have a disastrous start and go 0-4 in that tough stretch at the beginning of the season, they'll win 10-11 games. As far as them being a contender or a tough out in the playoffs, I really have to see how the offense looks but as of now I don't see much reason to believe they'll improve enough over last year to make waves in the postseason. As long as Mac takes the next step in his development 2022 will be a success, it just sucks that I don't have that as a given considering their coaching situation.

 

[Super Nomario]

Just looking at the playoff game last year at Buffalo: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/boxscores/202201150buf.htm#all_vis_snap_counts

KVN played 97% of defensive snaps, Hightower 84%, SlowJuan Williams 74%, Jamie Collins 61%

IMO the defense is immediately better by not having these four on the field and while the loss of JCJ hurts I think they may have hit on Marcus and Jack Jones. Yes there will be growing pains and mental mistakes along the way but as a whole the unit will be much much faster. I'm also cautiously optimistic some of the younger DL and edge players will have more of an impact and take pressure off Judon.

Being better than the D played in that playoff game is a low bar considering they turned in literally the worst results possible (TD every drive). But over the course of the regular season, the D finished 2nd in points scored, 4th in yardage, and won them a few games where the O wasn't producing. I'd expect them to be worse this year.

 

[SawtoothPatsFan]

I know this is a Pats thread and board, but Joe Burrow threw for 4600 yards and 34 TDs last year.

Mac needs to take a significant step forward to have a season that good.

That was said with a wink and a grin, which I realize doesn't translate well to the page.

Just needed to point out that there's a very recent comp for year 1 to year 2 improvement at the QB position. And from a player with a somewhat similar skill set. Mac has a long (LONG) way to go, and unfortunately I don't think we have any idea whether he'll show the same sort of jump until the games start for real, and probably not even for some time thereafter.

And I agree that even with a 17 game season, I'll be surprised if Mac equals those topline passing stats. Particularly considering that he won't have a stud WR to throw to (if you want to tell me on behalf of Dolphins fans everywhere that Davante Parker just needed a change of scenery and will be that guy, please do!). I could see Mac putting up an efficient ~4000 yds and ~30 TDs, and if paired with an effective running game, should get the job done. On that side of the ball at least.

 

[sodenj5]

That was said with a wink and a grin, which I realize doesn't translate well to the page.

Just needed to point out that there's a very recent comp for year 1 to year 2 improvement at the QB position. And from a player with a somewhat similar skill set. Mac has a long (LONG) way to go, and unfortunately I don't think we have any idea whether he'll show the same sort of jump until the games start for real, and probably not even for some time thereafter.

And I agree that even with a 17 game season, I'll be surprised if Mac equals those topline passing stats. Particularly considering that he won't have a stud WR to throw to (if you want to tell me on behalf of Dolphins fans everywhere that Davante Parker just needed a change of scenery and will be that guy, please do!). I could see Mac putting up an efficient ~4000 yds and ~30 TDs, and if paired with an effective running game, should get the job done. On that side of the ball at least.

It’s hard to tell sometimes.

I’m bearish on Parker, but I could be proven wrong. It isn’t a coincidence that his best season came when he had Ryan Fitzpatrick as his QB. Parker doesn’t run great routes or separate well or run well with the ball in his hands after the catch. What he is amazing at is winning contested balls along the sideline. And that takes a certain level of trust and belief in him.

If I were the Pats, I’d dial up two to three designed shot plays to Parker a game, and tell Mac “if you see Parker 1 on 1, throw the ball regardless of how covered he looks.” That simple.

 

[j44thor]

Hate to put a lot of stock into a pre-season game but that was as bad as I've seen them in a preseason game 3. Dominated by LAS 2s vs. their 1s on both sides of the ball. I don't think they've had nearly enough practice time and unfortunately will be working out the kinks for the first few games and probably don't get things together until DET. Think they will start the season 5-5 but starting with Thanksgiving that is a brutal end of season. 7 wins is suddenly looking like a stretch.

 

[JFK35]

I’m sorry but I think many of us are in serious denial about this team. “9 or 10 wins” is… hopeful at best. The defense might be decent but the offense is next level putrid. Remember how bad the D looked in the first few weeks of the ‘17 season? That’s what the offense will be every week of this season.

Not to mention the schedule is actually
pretty difficult and the easier games are all bundled together. So the whole thing looks like the potential to be a cluster F.

Doing the “schedule thing”
______________________________

@ Miami • LOSS
@ Pittsburgh • LOSS
vs. Baltimore • LOSS
@ Green Bay • LOSS
vs. Detroit • WIN
@ Cleveland • LOSS
vs. Chicago (MNF) • WIN
@ NY Jets • WIN
vs. Indy • WIN
BYE
vs. NY Jets • WIN
@ Minnesota (Thanksgiving) • LOSS
vs. Buffalo (TNF) • LOSS
@ Arizona • LOSS
@ Las Vegas (SNF) • LOSS
vs Cincinatti • LOSS
vs. Miami • LOSS
@Buffalo • WIN*****

***** (I think Buffalo might already it’s postseason position locked in - so it might be resting all starters - and knowing Bill he’ll try to win even though it’ll hurt our draft spot)

 

[snowmanny]

See, I don’t totally disagree with you but even with a mediocre team Pittsburgh seems very winnable, Cleveland seems pretty winnable, a split with Miami seems probable.

But maybe they will be awful.

 

[rodderick]

I’m sorry but I think many of us are in serious denial about this team. “9 or 10 wins” is… hopeful at best. The defense might be decent but the offense is next level putrid. Remember how bad the D looked in the first few weeks of the ‘17 season? That’s what the offense will be every week of this season.

Not to mention the schedule is actually
pretty difficult and the easier games are all bundled together. So the whole thing looks like the potential to be a cluster F.

Doing the “schedule thing”
______________________________

@ Miami • LOSS
@ Pittsburgh • LOSS
vs. Baltimore • LOSS
@ Green Bay • LOSS
vs. Detroit • WIN
@ Cleveland • LOSS
vs. Chicago (MNF) • WIN
@ NY Jets • WIN
vs. Indy • WIN
BYE
vs. NY Jets • WIN
@ Minnesota (Thanksgiving) • LOSS
vs. Buffalo (TNF) • LOSS
@ Arizona • LOSS
@ Las Vegas (SNF) • LOSS
vs Cincinatti • LOSS
vs. Miami • LOSS
@Buffalo • WIN*****

***** (I think Buffalo might already it’s postseason position locked in - so it might be resting all starters - and knowing Bill he’ll try to win even though it’ll hurt our draft spot)

I think even if they don't make a serious jump on offense it isn't hard to envision four additional wins there. The middle of the schedule starting with Detroit up until the Vikings game seems really soft to me and I'd be stunned if they didn't win at least three of the harder games they have left. I think they could easily beat Cleveland, Cincy, Miami at home, Arizona and Pittsburgh.

 

[radsoxfan]

I’m trying to stay optimistic but I think a 5 win-type season is definitely on the table.

I think Mac needs to have a REALLY good year for this team to sniff 9-10 wins. I like him and not impossible, but the overall talent level and offensive coaching staff is concerning.

 

[jsinger121]

This season screams the 1995 Patriots to me. Last years team reached the playoffs unexpectedly with meh talent just like 1994 and then we all saw what happened in 1995. I can see the exact thing happening this year as I think BB is way in over his head with this weak coaching staff.

 

[tims4wins]

This season screams the 1995 Patriots to me. Last years team reached the playoffs unexpectedly with meh talent just like 1994 and then we all saw what happened in 1995. I can see the exact thing happening this year as I think BB is way in over his head with this weak coaching staff.

Interesting comparison. What did that 95 team in anyway? How did they get so much better in 1996?

 

[Kramerica Industries]

Hearing and reading all the reports from camp and now watching the way it looked last night I’m not sure how you can’t be alarmed.

The more you look at it the more it seems they are setting Mac up to fail. New OC (or whatever they have), a shaky oline and a lack of elite playmakers is a recipe for disaster for any QB, never mind a second year QB. It’s the type of thing we mocked the Jets, Bills and Dolphins for 20 years.

I want to trust in Bill but I’m not seeing it. 6 wins. Hopefully I’m wrong.

 

[jsinger121]

Interesting comparison. What did that 95 team in anyway? How did they get so much better in 1996?

1995 they drafted Ty Law, Ted Johnson and Curtis Martin in rounds 1-3 and they were rookies in 1995. 1996 they drafted Terry Glenn, Lawyer Malloy and Tedy Bruschi in rounds 1-3 and had Adam Vinateri as a rookie free agent. Hence the reason they were good in 1996 plus their first overall QB was in his 4th season coming into his own.

 

[BaseballJones]

I think this has been as rough a preseason as I’ve seen in two decades. I have a great deal of faith in BB and they did win 10 games last year. But this preseason has been alarming. I expect it to be a little rough early on but I think they’ll pull it together.

 

[Dr. Gonzo]

Once the regular season begins I’d hope to see some RPOs because Mac showed at Bama he is perfectly capable. While I don’t see much of a new offense outside of an increase in zone blocking runs, they should look to more RPO. At Bama, 19% of Mac’s throws in 2020/21 were from an RPO. He can run it and it plays to a strength of his.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Last night made me realize exactly what the beat writers were seeing every day for 5 weeks. If you want to call it new stuff or more emphasized areas, the outside runs and play action passes were ineptly blocked and we've heard this from camp day in and day out. Last night looked worse than the week before and in both instances they were going up against the backups of the other teams. That's alarming. Phil Perry mentioned that the transition was the hardest on the OL since they went from numbers to words on the line calls, but after this amount of time there should be at least some progress. I also get that Andrews missed a lot of the spring on the field and Wynn has been hurt, but it should look better than this with 2 weeks to go before the season.

Mike Giardi was saying this yesterday afternoon before the game that players are frustrated and having issues buying in to these changes. From a player's perspective, I can see this being true. If I was in that locker room, I'd have a hard time buying into what is being told to me by coaches that have next to no experience on the offensive side of the ball. It would be different if the OC and others on the staff had a track record of success and you could trust what they're telling you eventually is going to work. But the players aren't robots or dumb. They know that last year what they ran had a decent amount of success and had a rookie QB at the helm so you'd expect the level of play to improve. So that's where the frustration may be coming from. There has to be the thought going through the room of "Why are we switching systems when what we did last year worked?"

The staff has a few days to figure all this out then it has to be full focus on getting ready for Miami. I don't have a lot of confidence in this coaching staff to do so. I hope to be proven wrong.

 

[chilidawg]

1995 they drafted Ty Law, Ted Johnson and Curtis Martin in rounds 1-3 and they were rookies in 1995. 1996 they drafted Terry Glenn, Lawyer Malloy and Tedy Bruschi in rounds 1-3 and had Adam Vinateri as a rookie free agent. Hence the reason they were good in 1996 plus their first overall QB was in his 4th season coming into his own.

That's an amazing back to back draft.

 

[Old Fart Tree]

Yeah that '95 draft in particular was amazing. Still waiting for Jimmy Hitchcock to get his knees sorted out, he's gonna be a huge asset someday.

 

[Ralphwiggum]

I voted 9-10 wins, but even though I missed last night’s game the recaps and the pre-season in general do have me concerned. BB is the best coach of all time and I don’t think he’s lost his fastball overnight. But he will lose it eventually and as he reaches 70 and has had some brain drain amongst coordinators (and continues to have his sons heavily involved in the staff, which I have mentioned several times I believe is a mistake) I think it is fair to question whether this means a team with talent that Bill could ordinarily coach to 10-11 wins might only win 8 or 9. They certainly don’t seemed to have a stacked roster than any coach could nudge into the playoffs.

Hope I am wrong but the team just seems to be sort of middling now like pretty much every other NFL team has done at some point during the BB era other than the Pats.

 

[BigSoxFan]

Yeah that '95 draft in particular was amazing. Still waiting for Jimmy Hitchcock to get his knees sorted out, he's gonna be a huge asset someday.

Dave Wohlabaugh in the 4th as well. They absolutely nailed that draft.

 

[ifmanis5]

Yeah after last night I downgraded my vote for the reasons RO explained. They are a few more good drafts away from the level we are used to. They only look good in spread and two big weapons for that look just got hurt. It has the makings of a long bridge year.

 

[j-man]

@ Miami 40% likey loss L
@ Pittsburgh 50% pure tossup lean towad win here W
vs. Baltimore 48% balt is very phyical kinda plays dirty leaning loss L
@ Green Bay 35% i just do not u can score enough to win here L
vs. Detroit 53 % will be close but i do not trust det W
@ Cleveland 60% unlees their running game goes off u win like 24-13 W
vs. Chicago (MNF) 65% Bears have no off this will be a 17-7 type of game W
@ NY Jets 50% Lean loss other than QB the jets roster has inproved a lot esp at WR and d-line L
vs. Indy 50% Pure tossup can u stop taylor if so u win if not u lose W
BYE
vs. NY Jets 53% The jets will not sweep u W
@ Minnesota (Thanksgiving) 50% Tossup lean loss L
vs. Buffalo (TNF) 38% unless weather comes in to play u are not winning this L
@ Arizona 51 % can u make a play at the end idk lean win W
@ Las Vegas (SNF) 40% Loss here hope i am wrong L
vs. Cincy 50% pure tossup can u slow down their off lean L
vs. Miami 60% W miami in dec big edge to u
@ Buffalo the q here is will buff need the game if they do u lose if they dont u win

Best case for u 10 wins
Worst case 6 wins a fegler offseason dream

 

[luckiestman]

@ Miami 40% likey loss L
@ Pittsburgh 50% pure tossup lean towad win here W
vs. Baltimore 48% balt is very phyical kinda plays dirty leaning loss L
@ Green Bay 35% i just do not u can score enough to win here L
vs. Detroit 53 % will be close but i do not trust det W
@ Cleveland 60% unlees their running game goes off u win like 24-13 W
vs. Chicago (MNF) 65% Bears have no off this will be a 17-7 type of game W
@ NY Jets 50% Lean loss other than QB the jets roster has inproved a lot esp at WR and d-line L
vs. Indy 50% Pure tossup can u stop taylor if so u win if not u lose W
BYE
vs. NY Jets 53% The jets will not sweep u W
@ Minnesota (Thanksgiving) 50% Tossup lean loss L
vs. Buffalo (TNF) 38% unless weather comes in to play u are not winning this L
@ Arizona 51 % can u make a play at the end idk lean win W
@ Las Vegas (SNF) 40% Loss here hope i am wrong L
vs. Cincy 50% pure tossup can u slow down their off lean L
vs. Miami 60% W miami in dec big edge to u
@ Buffalo the q here is will buff need the game if they do u lose if they dont u win

Best case for u 10 wins
Worst case 6 wins a fegler offseason dream

I mostly agree but think the lower bound is 5 not 6. So I predict 7-11 (Indy Zona beat Pats but Jets don’t, BUFF throws game) but that’s plus or minus two meaning 5 wins is reasonable and 9 is possible. 10 is tough, 4 is unlikely. I don’t get what the Pats are doing with the O coordinator situation. I need to see how this plays out because it seems nuts but BB is BB.

 

[Mugsy’s Walk-Off Bunt]

This is about as nightmarish a scenario as BB could have envisioned when he chose to “switch up the offense“ (simplifying or not) in the second year of a QB who was absolutely “getting it” last year AND chose to install TWO coaches in the general area of OC, both of whom have little to no experience on that side of the ball.

Given that, plus the fact that Patricia in particular had already established a not so great rep as a coordinator the last time he was here, it’s just a super bad look. Whether or not ”looks” matter or Belichick gives a shit (he doesn’t), this has played out almost precisely the way outside observers worried it might. The fact that the OL is struggling despite spending their first round pick on a lineman…I mean, holy jesus. If he DID care, is this not pretty much the worst case scenario?

edit typos

 

[ShaneTrot]

The one thing you could always count on with BB coached teams was that they would get better and improve over the year. The last 3 teams have sucked in December and January. Their record from December though the playoffs is 6-11 since 2019. This December is brutal.

I want to see this coaching staff game plan on offense before I throw them under the bus. Preseason tends to be pretty vanilla. I am very nervous about the offensive line but they figured it out last year and they probably will this year.

I think they win 9 or 10 games. The skill positions on offense are deep, they have no superstars but they have a lot of guys with good track records. The QB is decent and has guts.

The younger faster defense will be a strength as long as Judon and Barmore stay healthy.

 

[SMU_Sox]

I voted 7-8 wins. I believe they could be a 9-10 win team but the OL gives me a lot of pause. If they can't solidify that group the entire offense will implode. Defense will regress and the offense doesn't seem to be able to get all 11 guys executing well enough and on the same page - or at the very least not consistently.

at MIA L
at PIT W
vs BAL L
at GB L
vs DET W
at CLE W
vs CHI W
at NYJ W
vs IND L
vs NYJ W
at MIN L
vs BUF L
at ARI W
at LVR L
vs CIN L
vs MIA L
at BUF L

 

[Cotillion]

I voted 7-8 wins. I believe they could be a 9-10 win team but the OL gives me a lot of pause. If they can't solidify that group the entire offense will implode. Defense will regress and the offense doesn't seem to be able to get all 11 guys executing well enough and on the same page - or at the very least not consistently.

at MIA L
at PIT W
vs BAL L
at GB L
vs DET W
at CLE W
vs CHI W
at NYJ W
vs IND L
vs NYJ W
at MIN L
vs BUF L
at ARI W
at LVR L
vs CIN L
vs MIA L
at BUF L

I was a 7-8 guy. The O-line is the issue for me too as a casual. The thing I remember from last year was wondering if the o-line was going to get Mac killed before he had a chance to settle in. Once the o-line started to stabilize they were a lot better team.

 

[j-man]

I mostly agree but think the lower bound is 5 not 6. So I predict 7-11 (Indy Zona beat Pats but Jets don’t, BUFF throws game) but that’s plus or minus two meaning 5 wins is reasonable and 9 is possible. 10 is tough, 4 is unlikely. I don’t get what the Pats are doing with the O coordinator situation. I need to see how this plays out because it seems nuts but BB is BB.

happy to hear from u big fan of yours

 

[GB5]

The only thing I feel solid about is that Miami nukes them in week 1. I am buying in heavy on Mia this year. I think McDaniel seems to run a great scheme historically. I think they will have a great run game and use bootleg and misdirection with Tua and have him hit his speedy receivers on crossing patterns and quick hits down the seam. Every now and then they will use play action and send Tyreke deep. I think their defense is solid average to above average. I think they are going to have a great year.

Bills 12-13 wins
Miami 10-11 wins
NE 7-8 wins
NYJ 6 wins.