Extending Lester

Status
Not open for further replies.

Bone Chips

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2009
736
South Windsor, CT
bosockboy said:
Interesting timing of Lucky admitting talks will resume when they realize Clay may be done.  
I wouldn't read anything into it.  Sounds like he came on the show as a general appearance (probably related to last night's events), was asked a specific question, and gave a rather nondescript answer.
 

Sampo Gida

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 7, 2010
5,044
glennhoffmania said:
 
Also because they'd be taking on the risk of injury this season.  If they sign him to a 5 year extension they really need him to be healthy for 6 more years.  Anyone signing an extension before hitting FA should expect to take a discount.  Whether 4/70 is a reasonable discount is another issue.
 
How much of a discount depends on how far away a player is from free agency.  1 year away, not as much as 2-3 years away for example, but perhaps more than 3 months away.   4/70 is a discount in both years and AAV. Does not seem reasonable to me, or Lester obviously, but as LL said, it was only an opening offer. 
 
I think the Red Sox wanted to see which Lester came to pitch in 2014.  He has pitched very well, meanwhile guys who will be with the team next year (Doubront, Buchholz and Lackey) have had performances which have been below expectations.  Lester leverage has increased significantly as a result. I said during ST that 5/100 seemed a reasonable discounted deal, but that assumed a deal before opening day.  Now I think Lester tacks on a year and makes it 6/115. 
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

has big, douchey shoulders
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Sampo Gida said:
 
How much of a discount depends on how far away a player is from free agency.  1 year away, not as much as 2-3 years away for example, but perhaps more than 3 months away.   4/70 is a discount in both years and AAV. Does not seem reasonable to me, or Lester obviously, but as LL said, it was only an opening offer. 
 
I think the Red Sox wanted to see which Lester came to pitch in 2014.  He has pitched very well, meanwhile guys who will be with the team next year (Doubront, Buchholz and Lackey) have had performances which have been below expectations.  Lester leverage has increased significantly as a result. I said during ST that 5/100 seemed a reasonable discounted deal, but that assumed a deal before opening day.  Now I think Lester tacks on a year and makes it 6/115. 
Lackey's performance this season has not been below expectations, unless your expectations were ridiculous.
 

snowmanny

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 8, 2005
15,672
Sampo Gida said:
 
How much of a discount depends on how far away a player is from free agency.  1 year away, not as much as 2-3 years away for example, but perhaps more than 3 months away.   4/70 is a discount in both years and AAV. Does not seem reasonable to me, or Lester obviously, but as LL said, it was only an opening offer. 
 
I think the Red Sox wanted to see which Lester came to pitch in 2014.  He has pitched very well, meanwhile guys who will be with the team next year (Doubront, Buchholz and Lackey) have had performances which have been below expectations.  Lester leverage has increased significantly as a result. I said during ST that 5/100 seemed a reasonable discounted deal, but that assumed a deal before opening day.  Now I think Lester tacks on a year and makes it 6/115. 
 
90% of your post makes sense.  But if Lackey's performance - 3.27 ERA, 68K/14BB in 71 IP - is "below expectations" then I have to ask what sort of numbers you thought he was going to put up.
 

soxhop411

news aggravator
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2009
46,278
  • Red Sox starter Jon Lester tells WEEI’s Rob Bradford that he still wants to stay in Boston. “It’s all I’ve really known,” Lester says. “You don’t see many guys that get drafted by a team and end up staying there their whole career. It’s just something that I’ve always … wanted to do.” Lester cites his relationships with members of the Red Sox’s front office, and points out that his wife and kids would have to start their social lives anew if they were to move to a new city. Basic considerations like these rarely enter conversations about why a player might choose to sign with, or stay with, a team, but they’re clearly important. Lester, who is eligible for free agency after the season, says negotiations with the Red Sox will hinge on “what we think is a discount and still fair.”
(MLBTR)
 

BosRedSox5

what's an original thought?
Sep 6, 2006
1,471
Colorado Springs, Colorado
soxhop411 said:
 
  • Red Sox starter Jon Lester tells WEEI’s Rob Bradford that he still wants to stay in Boston. “It’s all I’ve really known,” Lester says. “You don’t see many guys that get drafted by a team and end up staying there their whole career. It’s just something that I’ve always … wanted to do.” Lester cites his relationships with members of the Red Sox’s front office, and points out that his wife and kids would have to start their social lives anew if they were to move to a new city. Basic considerations like these rarely enter conversations about why a player might choose to sign with, or stay with, a team, but they’re clearly important. Lester, who is eligible for free agency after the season, says negotiations with the Red Sox will hinge on “what we think is a discount and still fair.”
(MLBTR)
 
 
Am I being a homer to say I love how the Red Sox are run? This franchise is so well run, communication so good and relationships with the players so strong that we see star players giving them a hometown discount. Dustin Pedroia could be making massive amounts of money with Seattle or New York or whoever else needed a second baseman recently but he doesn't care. He likes this organization, the fans and his teammates so he decided he'd rather stay here and he took a pretty good sized discount. Sure, he's still "rich as fuck" as he likes to say, but he could have squeezed every penny out of some team and he decided not to...
 
Then again, if Lester is being genuine then why isn't he signed yet?  
 

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2007
18,783
The wrong side of the bridge....
BosRedSox5 said:
 
Then again, if Lester is being genuine then why isn't he signed yet?  
 
For all we know, what Lester thinks is "a discount and still fair" could be 7/140. And the Sox might see it as 5/85. And that's going to be a tough gap to bridge,
 
A player's professions of loyalty, even if taken at face value, don't really tell us much about where negotiations are or how they are likely to end up. I'm glad Lester wants to stick around, because I want him to stick around. But his expectations may still be a good deal higher than the FO's projection of his value, in which case he won't stick around.
 

JimD

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 29, 2001
8,681
I'm taking Jon's comments as a good sign that there is more to the story than just the $70 million lowball offer narrative that came out.
 

soxhop411

news aggravator
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2009
46,278
JimD said:
I'm taking Jon's comments as a good sign that there is more to the story than just the $70 million lowball offer narrative that came out.
same... I never really believed that offer...
 

bobesox

New Member
Jul 19, 2005
151
This reply does not piggyback on anything that was spoken recently, however I'm wondering if playoff Lester is somewhat of a product of better umpiring. Maybe the umpiring during the regular season, which may not be as good, puts him in a position where his emotions come into play over not getting strike calls that he believes he should.
 

BosRedSox5

what's an original thought?
Sep 6, 2006
1,471
Colorado Springs, Colorado
RedOctober3829 said:
If they eventually become sellers I'd entertain the thought of trading Lester, getting assets for him, then trying to sign him in the offseason.
 
Ah, the ol' Rick Aquilera. Seriously... it has happened before, but it seems a bit risky. I'd rather the Sox sign him long term. We could be highly competitive as early as next year so why risk losing him? 
 

curly2

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 8, 2003
4,887
People here debate whether he's an ace, but he's definitely the guy you want pitching AGAINST an ace. Outlasted Chris Sale and now outpitched Tanaka for probably the two best wins of the year. 
 

Bone Chips

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2009
736
South Windsor, CT
There's been some speculation in here that the 4/70 offer in the Spring was bogus or misreported. I think it's safe to say we can lay that to rest:

NEW YORK -- Red Sox pitcher Jake Peavy was grinning as he watched teammate Jon Lester slide in front of the TV cameras after outdueling Yankees ace Masahiro Tanaka in Boston's 2-1 win over the Bombers on Saturday night.

"Maybe they'll give him $85 million now," Peavy cracked mischievously, loud enough for a small smile to sneak across Lester's face.

http://espn.go.com/blog/boston/red-sox/post/_/id/38304/lester-stifles-yanks-deflects-contract-talk
 

soxhop411

news aggravator
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2009
46,278
“@Buster_ESPN: Filed to ESPN: Red Sox have re-engaged Jon Lester in contract talks -- but may face a tough choice, this close to his free agency.”
 

threecy

Cosbologist
SoSH Member
Sep 1, 2006
1,587
Tamworth, NH
I don't doubt the $70 million offer was presented.  I do doubt, however, that it was the Red Sox highest offer the season started.
 
I suspect that was their initial lowball pitch, which was then countered by Lester's agent, then countered by the Red Sox, et al, during the first round of talks.  Leaking the $70 million figure was probably smart damage control for Lester's agent to sort of get fans sympathetic to him not signing (as opposed to perhaps saying he turned down, say, a $100 million counteroffer before they broke off talks at the end of the spring).
 

koufax32

He'll cry if he wants to...
SoSH Member
Dec 8, 2006
9,092
Duval
If that was offered a good agent would not have countered or even acknowledged it happened.

I'll be the first pessimist to point out that management going to the media with news of "we're trying!" makes me very nervous. Sounds like round 1or damage control to me.
 

mattymatty

New Member
May 6, 2007
68
Portland, Ore
I was happy to hear they've re-engaged in contract discussions, but the more I think about it, the more I think, duh. Of course they've re-engaged. The trade deadline is a month away and the team, despite a good series win in New York (though the series opening loss to Vidal Sassoon sticks in my craw), is still unlikely to make the playoffs. That means the best thing the Red Sox can do is trade Lester for value now before they're left holding the bag next off-season. That is, unless he's part of the team's long term future, i.e. unless they can sign him to an extension. So this is likely the last gasp attempt to keep him and if no deal is to be had then I'm guessing they start talking to other teams and begin gauging his market. 
 

HriniakPosterChild

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 6, 2006
14,841
500 feet above Lake Sammammish
mattymatty said:
I was happy to hear they've re-engaged in contract discussions, but the more I think about it, the more I think, duh. Of course they've re-engaged. The trade deadline is a month away and the team, despite a good series win in New York (though the series opening loss to Vidal Sassoon sticks in my craw), is still unlikely to make the playoffs. That means the best thing the Red Sox can do is trade Lester for value now before they're left holding the bag next off-season. That is, unless he's part of the team's long term future, i.e. unless they can sign him to an extension. So this is likely the last gasp attempt to keep him and if no deal is to be had then I'm guessing they start talking to other teams and begin gauging his market. 
 
Huh? The draft pick after he declines the QO is worth more than what they'll get in trade for him.
 

Rasputin

Will outlive SeanBerry
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Oct 4, 2001
29,423
Not here
[QUOTE="Hriniak]
Huh? The draft pick after he declines the QO is worth more than what they'll get in trade for him.
[/QUOTE]
That's probably not true. The Sox would likely get more than one guy in return and one of them would be a fairly well regarded prospect that has already made it out of A ball.
 

MyDaughterLovesTomGordon

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 26, 2006
14,203
As a fan, yes, I see that winning is highly important, and the long-term health of the team is vital for sustained winning. No problem.
 
But I also want to see the best players play. You look around the league, and Kershaw is throwing 28 straight scoreless and Cueto gives up a run every other start and King Felix is putting up double-digit strikeouts on the regular. I want one of those guys. Lester is one of those guys.
 
The Dodgers backed up the truck for Kershaw, and while Lester is not at the same career point, I want the Sox to do the same. Give him all the money. He's a big strong lefty with a love of the big stage and low injury risk. I don't care if the last couple years of the deal are an overpay. The Sox need him as an anchor, and, as a fan, I need to see some kind of commitment to putting elite talent on the field.
 
Ok, Ellsbury isn't going to be elite talent going forward. I can get that argument. But it doesn't fly with Lester. Give him the money.  
 

BosRedSox5

what's an original thought?
Sep 6, 2006
1,471
Colorado Springs, Colorado
MyDaughterLovesTomGordon said:
As a fan, yes, I see that winning is highly important, and the long-term health of the team is vital for sustained winning. No problem.
 
But I also want to see the best players play. You look around the league, and Kershaw is throwing 28 straight scoreless and Cueto gives up a run every other start and King Felix is putting up double-digit strikeouts on the regular. I want one of those guys. Lester is one of those guys.
 
The Dodgers backed up the truck for Kershaw, and while Lester is not at the same career point, I want the Sox to do the same. Give him all the money. He's a big strong lefty with a love of the big stage and low injury risk. I don't care if the last couple years of the deal are an overpay. The Sox need him as an anchor, and, as a fan, I need to see some kind of commitment to putting elite talent on the field.
 
Ok, Ellsbury isn't going to be elite talent going forward. I can get that argument. But it doesn't fly with Lester. Give him the money.  
 
I agree. As a Red Sox fan I'm glad that the Sox wouldn't engage in this foolishness that the Yankees do with Jeter and keep around an aging, underperforming former star for the sake of nostalgia. Lester isn't a mega star type pitcher who's going to put up eye popping numbers but he's dependable, consistent and reliable. He's the type of guy who at this point in his career seems capable of maintaining his pitching ability to his mid to late 30's. He doesn't throw especially hard and he's got a repeatable arm motion and release point where he can help avoid injury. I say keep him, and give all these young prospects coming up someone to look up to and learn from. 
 

JimD

Member
SoSH Member
Nov 29, 2001
8,681
Bone Chips said:
There's been some speculation in here that the 4/70 offer in the Spring was bogus or misreported. I think it's safe to say we can lay that to rest:
 
 
I don't get it - how does Peavy's remark (or Lester's little smile) prove anything? 
 

twibnotes

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
20,232
I've never understood the "give him 'the money' " argument. What is "THE money?" I think we can all agree it's less than Kershaw and more than $70 million. We know it, the Sox FO knows it, Lester knows it...the whole challenge is finding the right amount. As soon as you get sloppy with those decisions, you're not running the franchise properly.

I also don't think it's appropriate to compare Lester to Kershaw or King Felix. I love Lester and hope they retain him, but he's not on the Kershaw level.
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
55,300
deep inside Guido territory
Give him 5/125 and be done with it. This isn't Somebody you screw around with. If you want to win, you need at least 1 pitcher (and most of the time 2) big-time SPs to win it all. Jon Lester has proven he's one of those big game pitchers. If they're going to plan on contending for the next couple years, they'll need Lester or someone of his ilk to do so. Relying on prospects to step in and replace his production isn't smart. Look at Bradley.

Hammer something out over the ASB and keep Jon Lester where he belongs.
 

dcmissle

Deflatigator
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Aug 4, 2005
28,269
BosRedSox5 said:
 
I agree. As a Red Sox fan I'm glad that the Sox wouldn't engage in this foolishness that the Yankees do with Jeter and keep around an aging, underperforming former star for the sake of nostalgia. Lester isn't a mega star type pitcher who's going to put up eye popping numbers but he's dependable, consistent and reliable. He's the type of guy who at this point in his career seems capable of maintaining his pitching ability to his mid to late 30's. He doesn't throw especially hard and he's got a repeatable arm motion and release point where he can help avoid injury. I say keep him, and give all these young prospects coming up someone to look up to and learn from. 
+1.

Never act out of fear or stupidity, but recognize he has a lot going for him and never forget he is a southpaw. I view Lester as a guy who can adapt his game and maintain his effectiveness maybe significantly longer than people expect. Kaat, Moyer, Petitte and, although he is not in this category from an ability standpoint, Carlton.

Consider also that the current mediocrity in this division may be more than a one-year phase, and in that connection consider his likely -- I'd argue, almost certain -- destination if he does not re-up with the Red Sox. There may be more near term opportunity than many people expect.

I totally get it that the As and Rays could never afford him in these circumstances, and that the Cardinals would choose not to afford him. And they would be okay. But unlike the first two, the Red Sox can probably afford some wasted years at the end of a contract. I would go the extra mile in these circumstances.
 

bankshot1

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 12, 2003
24,661
where I was last at
I'm sticking with my original thoughts.
bankshot1 said:
Given the nature of the FA market, (Ellsbury, Cano getting way more than pundits figured), the additional TV money teams have to spend, and the never ending demand for good LH starting pitching, IMO it is unrealistic to assume that Lester, who is a 1 1/2-2, will sign anything significantly under market. IMO, a 1 1/2LH, with a nice resume, pitching in the best division in baseball, and having post-season success, against 1s, has all the leverage.  IMO his market starts at 6/120-130. 
 
IMO they need this guy to anchor and stabilize the staff. I think the concern that Cherington has got to address is, can Lester be a Lackey quality pitcher 5-6 years from now. And if the answer is a "probably" then the just make the guy the 5-6 year market deal and get it done. Lester has pitched his ass and heart off here, and he's a winner. 
 
Whether his market is still 6/120-130 is open to debate, but its close. But it never was 4/70.
 

MyDaughterLovesTomGordon

Member
SoSH Member
Jun 26, 2006
14,203
twibnotes said:
I also don't think it's appropriate to compare Lester to Kershaw or King Felix. I love Lester and hope they retain him, but he's not on the Kershaw level.
 
I don't think anyone is on the Kershaw level, but look at these stats:
 
76.2 IP, 68K, 21BB, 59H, 2.11 ERA. 
 
That's Jon Lester in the playoffs for the Red Sox. 
 
Now these:
 
79.1 IP, 107K, 11BB, 62H, 2.04 ERA. 
 
That's Clayton Kershaw this year. 
 
Basically, Jon Lester turns into Clayton Kershaw for the playoffs. (Okay, minus 40K - truly, Kershaw is unreal.)
 

smastroyin

simpering whimperer
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2002
20,684
I think the Kershaw comparisons are kind of stupid in both directions.  First, we all know that Kershaw is a generational talent.  Second, when we start throwing these things around loosely, people start looking at Lester and saying "well Clayton Kershaw is a "true number 1" and Lester is not that so he's not a "true number 1."  Which is also kind of stupid, because outside of Kershaw you maybe have King Felix and...
 
So Lester is going to get paid.  Here is the current list of AAVs, numbers in million/yr.
 
Kershaw - $30.7 through 2020
Verlander - $25.7 through 2019
Hernandez - $25.0 through 2019
Greinke - $24.5 through 2018
Sabathia - $24.4 through 2016
Lee - $24.0 through 2015
Hamels - $24.0 through 2018
Tanaka - $22.1 through 2020
Cain - $21.3 through 2017
Wainwright - $19.5 through 2018
Lincecum - $17.5 through 2015
Weaver - $17.0 through 2016
 
On this list, some deals seem like overpays (Sabathia, now Verlander) while some guys are underpaid (mostly just Wainwright, maybe Lee believe it or not).
 
The Lester salary probably starts at $24 million per year (slightly less than Greinke, same as Hamels) and then will get discounted for the following.
 
1)  His age.  
2)  His poor 2012.  Advanced metrics tell us 2012 was not as bad as it seemed, and that 2013 was not quite as good (largely due to fluctuation of HR rates).  The question people will have is the chance that you will get three of the next 5 or 6 years looking exactly like that, or if you can expect him to remain in form he showed before 2012 and has shown this year (his best if he keeps it up).
3)  Hometown.  I would love it if Lester were to take a significant discount like it seems Wainwright did (though his injury played into it I imagine).
 
But I think if he wants 5/110 or 6/130 and you haven't gone there because you want the market to price him, you are going to lose out.
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
55,300
deep inside Guido territory
The FO can not possibly think they can let Lester go and build the rotation long-term around Buchholz and the kids and make the playoffs in the short-term.  Letting a pitcher like Lester go and not having a suitable replacement in this market is mind-numbingly short-sighted and frankly stupid.  I say this knowing I supported them letting Ellsbury go and replacing him with JBJ.  I thought Ellsbury's contract was vastly overrated from the Yankees and that JBJ provided some things that Ellsbury didn't(case in point: the throw last night to gun Beltran down at the plate).  But, you can not expect to replace Jon Lester's production with a kid.    If they let Lester go and expect somebody like Raunado or Owens to step in and replace his production, I will lose any admiration I gained for Ben Cheringon.  They did the right thing and extended Pedroia.  Now, please do the same with Lester.
 

3_games_down

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 1, 2007
137
Coastal NC
I think the Lester negotiation is an opportunity for the front office to utilize a club option that appeals to both the player and the agent.  Lester wants to stay.  The agent wants to maximize the deal.  
 
I don't know what the market for Lester is, but I trust the front office to know the market value cold. Does it benefit the Red Sox to increase the AAV and shorten the length of the contract to insure against injury and age?  Does it benefit the Red Sox to control assets for additional years when those assets perform to market value?  Does it benefit Lester to sign a high AAV contract that pays him market value, but asks him to provide the club with protection in the event of injury? 
 
Why not 4 years / $92M with two club options at $23M per year vs. 6 years / $120M?  I have no idea if $20M per year is the starting point for discussion.  I am throwing numbers against the wall for the sake of argument.  I'm interested in SOSH's take regarding the use of club options to bridge the gap between the player's and the club's interests. Would you prefer a discount off of market value or would you prefer to pay market value if you could get protection in the event of injury or significant erosion in skill due to age?
 

bankshot1

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 12, 2003
24,661
where I was last at
I think easy market value (ie. 2 or more teams bidding) for Lester starts at 6/144-150+. The question is whether the hometown discount is still there. If it is, maybe you discount that 6/150 to 6/135. Unless he's got the loyalty of somewhere between a boy-scout and Lassie, I really can't see him signing for materially less than that.
 

BosRedSox5

what's an original thought?
Sep 6, 2006
1,471
Colorado Springs, Colorado
Lester has gone on record as saying he will take a discount, but with every day that goes by without him signing, I think it's clear that he did not mean a Dustin Pedroia style discount. 

Not that we should expect everyone to be wired like Pedey, but when he took a discount it was at least $5 million a season less than he could have gotten on the open market (Josh Hamilton signed the offseason before for 24.6 AAV, BJ Upton for 15, Nick Swisher for 14). Then again, Pedroia has a history of this. He gave up part of his scholarship at ASU so the coach could add another talented player. Anyway, he definitely took a huge discount to play with the Red Sox. Not that I could fault him for it, but It doesn't seem like Lester is willing to do the same.
 
So what will it take? Honestly, I think Adam Wainwright is a great comparison. They're both home grown products of their team's farm system, came up at the same time and have big game experience. Wainwright is the better pitcher. He's the type who has eye popping stats and who regularly competes for the Cy Young. He took a really nice hometown deal with the Cardinals, 5 years at 19.5 per. On the open market, he could probably get about 5 million more a year, but presumably he likes St. Louis, he's been with the team for ten years (originally drafted by Atlanta and traded for JD Drew) and he wants to win. Wouldn't 17.5 or 18.5 be a good AAV? Wouldn't that prove that Lester is respected by the team but also that he is willing to take a discount if it means winning? At that rate, he'd most likely be the Red Sox's highest paid player for the rest of his career. 

Maybe Lester will push for north of 20 million and maybe if he does the team should give it to him, but being the highest paid player on a perennial contender, for the team that drafted him and for a team that he's won two World Series rings with seems like a really good position for him. 
 

smastroyin

simpering whimperer
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2002
20,684
Look at the rest of the guys I listed.  Wainright's contract breaks the curve.  It's nice for the Cardinals that he was so willing to sign it and that he has so far pitched to his upside instead of the priced in risk of having missed all of 2011 and being terrible in 2012 after coming back from Tommy John.  (he signed the contract before throwing a pitch in 2013)
 
I think it's pretty unrealistic to look at his contract as a single data point of comparison.  Someone else could counter "CC Sabathia is making $24.4 million per year and hasn't been nearly as good as Lester for two years so $27 is probably a fair number."
 

bankshot1

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 12, 2003
24,661
where I was last at
Wouldn't 17.5 or 18.5 be a good AAV? Wouldn't that prove that Lester is respected by the team but also that he is willing to take a discount if it means winning?
 
 
No it wouldn't. the 4/70 (17.5 AAV) offer was widely viewed as a low-ball ill-considered initial bid. Imo tossing him another $1m in AAV would just reinforce the low-ball offer, and lead to Lester's exit.
 

EvilEmpire

paying for his sins
Moderator
SoSH Member
Apr 9, 2007
17,184
Washington
smastroyin said:
Look at the rest of the guys I listed.  Wainright's contract breaks the curve.  It's nice for the Cardinals that he was so willing to sign it and that he has so far pitched to his upside instead of the priced in risk of having missed all of 2011 and being terrible in 2012 after coming back from Tommy John.  (he signed the contract before throwing a pitch in 2013)
 
I think it's pretty unrealistic to look at his contract as a single data point of comparison.  Someone else could counter "CC Sabathia is making $24.4 million per year and hasn't been nearly as good as Lester for two years so $27 is probably a fair number."
 
Yeah.  I think it is hard to look at the Wainright contract as anything other than a Pedroia-equivalent contract for the Cardinals.  If Lester was willing to sign a Pedroia-like deal, it would have happened already.  I think $22 million per is probably the discount floor.  It will be interesting to see how it works out.
 
edit:  Was thinking 22, wrote 20.  Couple million per less than CC.
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
55,300
deep inside Guido territory
Buster Olney ‏@Buster_ESPN 23s
IMO: Unless BOS offers Hamels-type deal, Lester talks are over. BOS wants to make an intermediate offer;his side wants to table discussions.
 
Buster Olney ‏@Buster_ESPN 5s
Handling of Lester talks by top of BOS leadership is baffling. Lester may well have taken 5/100 in Feb., but not this close to free agency.
 
I agree with Buster on the bottom tweet.  The time to get a big discount was before the season started.  Now, they are going to have to pay at or above market value to keep him.
 

KillerBs

New Member
Nov 16, 2006
911
This is the sort of strategy which leads to Lester in pinstripes next year. The FO would be wise to factor into its spreadsheets how pissed off its fan base would be, if that happens.  
 

TomRicardo

rusty cohlebone
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Feb 6, 2006
20,613
Row 14
Rudy Pemberton said:
How is it baffling? The team is having a terrible season. They want to know what it takes to sign him by making a better offer (guess John Henry no longer leads with his best offer), and if he declines, they'll more seriously gauge the trade market to see what he can brings back (while leaking that he declined a big offer).
 
It is baffling that they have been goofing this up so much.  fWAR has Lester as the second best pitched in the MLB this year.  The Red Sox have money and motivation but somehow are determined not to get this done.
 

bankshot1

Member
SoSH Member
Feb 12, 2003
24,661
where I was last at
TomRicardo said:
 
It is baffling that they have been goofing this up so much.  fWAR has Lester as the second best pitched in the MLB this year.  The Red Sox have money and motivation but somehow are determined not to get this done.
This is where I'm soon approaching.
 
At this point, with rookies and younger players likely to be a large part of the team next year, this nickel and dime approach to Lester seems mind-numblingly stupid and self-defeating.
 

smastroyin

simpering whimperer
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2002
20,684
I guess we can all hope for some illegal collusion where they have already drafted his FA deal and he's going to sign it but he's happy to be a deadline rental in order to bring some pieces to the club for next year.
 
In real life land, the Sox may also question why he has been so much better in contract year than he was just a couple years ago.  They may also have some left over association with him and the 2011 collapse and worry that he will repeat behavior if he is given a huge deal here.  I don't know that I buy into any of that, but it could be the explanation for some of the baffling behavior.
 

foulkehampshire

hillbilly suburbanite
SoSH Member
Feb 25, 2007
5,099
Wesport, MA
TomRicardo said:
 
It is baffling that they have been goofing this up so much.
 
We literally know nothing about whats really going on behind closed doors. I'd wait and see until some factual information comes out before we declare this as a gaffe. 
 

RedOctober3829

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 19, 2005
55,300
deep inside Guido territory
foulkehampshire said:
 
We literally know nothing about whats really going on behind closed doors. I'd wait and see until some factual information comes out before we declare this as a gaffe. 
He's not signed when he keeps saying he would've taken less money to sign.  This would be a sign that the FO blew their chance at a "hometown discount".  How is this not a mistake?
 

soxhop411

news aggravator
SoSH Member
Dec 4, 2009
46,278
RedOctober3829 said:
He's not signed when he keeps saying he would've taken less money to sign.  This would be a sign that the FO blew their chance at a "hometown discount".  How is this not a mistake?
We do not even know what "less" (hometown discount) money is to him.  
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
20,676
Maine
RedOctober3829 said:
He's not signed when he keeps saying he would've taken less money to sign.  This would be a sign that the FO blew their chance at a "hometown discount".  How is this not a mistake?
 
Because we don't know what they offered and we don't know what he considers "less money to sign".  Less money than what?  For all we know, "less money" to Lester is $1M a year lower than market, but only if it's for 5+ years.
 
No matter what we keep seeing speculated in the media, we're all flying blind here.  We know nothing, so we're really not in any position to judge one way or the other.
 

geoduck no quahog

not particularly consistent
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Nov 8, 2002
13,024
Seattle, WA
Any decision on Lester needs to be made based on what the market is, not what we want it to be.
 
Losing the number 1 starter creates a situation that needs remedy, and that remedy either involves getting better or getting worse. Other teams in the AL East are not going to congratulate the Red Sox for holding the line while they improve with the acquisition of a Lester or a Scherzer, Shields or some sort of arrangement with Price.
 
It would be nice if the (non Ray) competition decided to think the same as the Sox by refusing to overpay for Lester or others should the Red Sox deem Lester too expensive.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.