Extreme Makeover: The Jarren Duran Edition

Rasputin

Will outlive SeanBerry
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Kinda like how if player A has a single, a double and two home runs in one game while player B has a single, a double, a triple and a homer then player B would get all the accolades for hitting for the cycle even though player A had the better game.

IIRC some time in the 90s Jeff Frye was on the Sox and hit a ball into the gap but stopped at first because he was a single short of the cycle. I'm guessing if that happened today there'd be a huge shitstorm over it in the media. (Maybe there was at the time too but I don't really remember)

EDIT: It was Jeff Frye but it was in 2001 when he was on the Jays. View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ig90f8OtolM
Remember when he had that injury in spring training that cost him a season? My fault. I made his name my password. When he got hurt, I changed it to Juan Pena which worked out perfectly. Never had a red sox player name as my password again.
 

azsoxpatsfan

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May 23, 2014
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Kinda like how if player A has a single, a double and two home runs in one game while player B has a single, a double, a triple and a homer then player B would get all the accolades for hitting for the cycle even though player A had the better game.

IIRC some time in the 90s Jeff Frye was on the Sox and hit a ball into the gap but stopped at first because he was a single short of the cycle. I'm guessing if that happened today there'd be a huge shitstorm over it in the media. (Maybe there was at the time too but I don't really remember)

EDIT: It was Jeff Frye but it was in 2001 when he was on the Jays. View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ig90f8OtolM
I have a distinct memory of Pedroia needing a single for the cycle, and hustling for a double on a ball into left center that easily could’ve just been a single
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I have a distinct memory of Pedroia needing a single for the cycle, and hustling for a double on a ball into left center that easily could’ve just been a single
Good memory! July 2, 2008

HR in his first AB. Triple in his second. Double in his third. Fly out to CF in his fourth.

In the top of the 8th, trailing by three and with two outs and Lugo on first, Pedroia lined one off the wall to drive in Lugo. Getting himself to second was way more important than settling for a single and the cycle.
 
If Duran plays every game for the remainder of the season at his current pace, he'll hit about 10.2 bWAR and 8.3 fWAR.

Here is the list of players that have marked 9 or more bWAR in a season since 2010, not including this year:

Judge
Betts (2)
Trout (4)
Harper

This year we'll likely see Judge get another one, and Witt Jr. added to the list with a chance of adding Soto and Henderson.

Acuna
Freeman
Betts (3)
Judge (2)
Arenado
Machado (2)
Turner
Bregman (2)
Bellinger
Trout (7)
Lindor
Yelich
J. Ramirez (2)
Altuve (2)
Bryant (2)
Harper
Donaldson (2)
Votto
Goldschmidt
Posey (2)
Lucroy
McCutchen (3)
Cabrera (2)
Carpenter
Y. Molina (2)
Davis
Cano
Headley
Ellsbury
Kemp
Bautista
Pedroia
Kinsler
Braun
Hamilton
Crawford
Longoria

There are a few concerning names, but overall it's a list of players that mostly put up several very valuable seasons. Keep in mind that most of the names on the fWAR list BARELY made it to 7 fWAR, a significantly lower bar than what Duran is likely to hit.

I just don't get the clamor to trade Duran. No, he is not likely to repeat this performance again. But even if he doesn't, he's still a VERY valuable player if he puts up a couple of 4-5 win seasons. Anthony's ceiling is tantalizing but we'll be lucky if he puts up even one five win season.

I get that Duran's speed may not last into his 30's, but it's not likely to degrade much over the next couple of years and he has enough power to retain value even if his speed drops off a bit.
 

Rasputin

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I have a distinct memory of Pedroia needing a single for the cycle, and hustling for a double on a ball into left center that easily could’ve just been a single
Pedroia only had one gear and he was pretty fuckin' hard on it.
 

The Gray Eagle

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Aug 1, 2001
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From Joe Posnanski's blog:
https://joeblogs.joeposnanski.com/p/a-few-foggy-sports-thoughts
This part we know about already:
Speaking of odd statistical wonders, Boston’s Jarren Duran has become the first 10-20-30-40 player in baseball history.
That would be:
  • 10 triples (Duran has a league-leading 13)
  • 20 homers (Duran has exactly 20)
  • 30 stolen bases (Duran has 32)
  • 40 doubles (Duran has a league-leading 42)
This part is funny though. If you're going to make up a stat combo, why not go all the way?
Yes, this is a totally made up statistical combination, but it’s pretty darned amazing. I actually want to keep it going and say that Duran is having the only 0-10-20-30-40-50-60-70-80-90-100 season ever. It could happen:
  • 0 intentional walks (so far!)
  • 10 triples (got it)
  • 20 homers (got it)
  • 30 stolen bases (got it)
  • 40 doubles (got it)
  • 50 walks (he has 49)
  • 60 games at two positions (got it!)
  • 70 RBI (he has 68)
  • 80 extra-base hits (he has 75)
  • 90 singles (he’s got 87)
  • 100 runs (he’s got 94)
If he doesn't get intentionally walked, he needs 1 unintentional walk, 2 RBI, 5 extra-base hits, 3 singles, and 6 runs scored to accomplish this historic feat.
 

BaseballJones

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Oct 1, 2015
27,600
Duran is #3 in MLB in bWAR at 8.6, behind Judge (9.6) and Witt (9.0). He's ahead of Henderson (8.3), Soto (7.3), and Ohtani (7.3).
 

EricFeczko

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Apr 26, 2014
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Just quietly having more than twice as many as anyone on the list. Dude may be a boring weather nerd, but he's a GOOD boring weather nerd.
*was* GOOD. 2022 was the last year he played more than 100 games in a season ( 116 ); remains to be seen if he can recover, again.
 

BaseballJones

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Oct 1, 2015
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Duran is presently at 8.5 bWAR. And he won't even come close to sniffing the MVP. Gets me thinking about the best seasons NOT to win the MVP. Let's just go for the last 25 years, so from 1999 to the present. I can think of some Ted Williams years where he didn't win that were absurdly good, as well as some in the 1920s that didn't win, but those were the days when you could only win the award once (crazy rule, obviously). This is just for the American League.

2022 - Ohtani: 9.6 bWAR, .875 ops, 34 hr, 95 rbi, 15-9, 2.33 era, 1.01 whip in 166 innings, lost to Judge (10.5 WAR)
2019 - Bregman: 8.9 bWAR, 1.015 ops, 41 hr, 112 rbi, lost to Trout (7.9 WAR)
2018 - Trout: 9.9 bWAR, 1.088 ops, 39 hr, 79 rbi, 24 sb, lost to Betts (10.7 WAR)
2016 - Betts: 9.5 bWAR, .897 ops, 31 hr, 113 rbi, 26 sb, lost to Trout (10.5 WAR)
2015 - Trout: 9.6 bWAR, .991 ops, 41 hr, 90 rbi, lost to Donaldson (7.1 WAR) - highway robbery
2013 - Trout: 8.9 bWAR, .988 ops, 27 hr, 97 rbi, 33 sb, lost to Cabrera (7.5 WAR)
2012 - Trout: 10.5 bWAR, .963 ops, 30 hr, 83 rbi, 49 sb, lost to Cabrera (7.1 WAR) - Cabrera's triple crown season
2004 - Ichiro: 9.2 bWAR, .869 ops, 8 hr, 60 rbi, 36 sb, lost to Guerrero (5.6 WAR) - holy cow
2002 - ARod: 8.8 bWAR, 1.015 ops, 57 hr, 142 rbi, lost to Tejada (5.7 WAR)
2001 - Giambi: 9.2 bWAR, 1.137 ops, 38 hr, 120 rbi, lost to Ichiro (7.7 WAR)
2000 - Pedro: 11.7 bWAR, 18-6, 1.74 era, 0.74 whip, 284 k, lost to Giambi (7.8 WAR)
1999 - Pedro: 9.8 bWAR, 20-4, 2.07 era, 0.92 whip, 313 k, lost to Ivan Rodriguez (6.4 WAR)


Of this list of non-MVP winners, obviously some of these guys deserved the award and some didn't. Look how many times Trout probably should have won it but didn't. And Pedro is on the list twice. The gap between Pedro's 11.7 and Giambi's 7.8 WAR is the biggest gap (3.9) between the non-winner and the winner, where the non-winner had a higher WAR.

Incredibly, Pedro finished *FIFTH* in the MVP voting in 2000, despite having by far the most WAR in the AL. It went:

Giambi: 7.8
Thomas: 6.0
ARod: 10.4
Delgado: 7.3
Pedro: 11.7

Insane.