Duran is presently at 8.5 bWAR. And he won't even come close to sniffing the MVP. Gets me thinking about the best seasons NOT to win the MVP. Let's just go for the last 25 years, so from 1999 to the present. I can think of some Ted Williams years where he didn't win that were absurdly good, as well as some in the 1920s that didn't win, but those were the days when you could only win the award once (crazy rule, obviously). This is just for the American League.
2022 - Ohtani: 9.6 bWAR, .875 ops, 34 hr, 95 rbi, 15-9, 2.33 era, 1.01 whip in 166 innings, lost to Judge (10.5 WAR)
2019 - Bregman: 8.9 bWAR, 1.015 ops, 41 hr, 112 rbi, lost to Trout (7.9 WAR)
2018 - Trout: 9.9 bWAR, 1.088 ops, 39 hr, 79 rbi, 24 sb, lost to Betts (10.7 WAR)
2016 - Betts: 9.5 bWAR, .897 ops, 31 hr, 113 rbi, 26 sb, lost to Trout (10.5 WAR)
2015 - Trout: 9.6 bWAR, .991 ops, 41 hr, 90 rbi, lost to Donaldson (7.1 WAR) - highway robbery
2013 - Trout: 8.9 bWAR, .988 ops, 27 hr, 97 rbi, 33 sb, lost to Cabrera (7.5 WAR)
2012 - Trout: 10.5 bWAR, .963 ops, 30 hr, 83 rbi, 49 sb, lost to Cabrera (7.1 WAR) - Cabrera's triple crown season
2004 - Ichiro: 9.2 bWAR, .869 ops, 8 hr, 60 rbi, 36 sb, lost to Guerrero (5.6 WAR) - holy cow
2002 - ARod: 8.8 bWAR, 1.015 ops, 57 hr, 142 rbi, lost to Tejada (5.7 WAR)
2001 - Giambi: 9.2 bWAR, 1.137 ops, 38 hr, 120 rbi, lost to Ichiro (7.7 WAR)
2000 - Pedro: 11.7 bWAR, 18-6, 1.74 era, 0.74 whip, 284 k, lost to Giambi (7.8 WAR)
1999 - Pedro: 9.8 bWAR, 20-4, 2.07 era, 0.92 whip, 313 k, lost to Ivan Rodriguez (6.4 WAR)
Of this list of non-MVP winners, obviously some of these guys deserved the award and some didn't. Look how many times Trout probably should have won it but didn't. And Pedro is on the list twice. The gap between Pedro's 11.7 and Giambi's 7.8 WAR is the biggest gap (3.9) between the non-winner and the winner, where the non-winner had a higher WAR.
Incredibly, Pedro finished *FIFTH* in the MVP voting in 2000, despite having by far the most WAR in the AL. It went:
Giambi: 7.8
Thomas: 6.0
ARod: 10.4
Delgado: 7.3
Pedro: 11.7
Insane.