Farrell out

hbk72777

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I used to think 1 world title would get you 5 years of job security and 2 or more would let you keep the job until you were ready to retire.

But Torre and Coughlin have proven the "What have you done for me lately" mantra.

(We'll trade you Girardi extremely cheap)
 

TheoShmeo

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As has been proven pretty conclusively the last 24 hours, the case for this claim is extremely weak. The stats we can look at to try and pin down some of his value grade him out, at worst, as average. In some cases, they grade him out as pretty damned good. And most of the anecdotal evidence for him being bad is full of presumptions and projection.
That you think this has been "proved" is odd. The argument for Farrell being good, bad or in between is inherently subjective. Managers cannot be graded with tools like batting average, ERA or other stats that measure actual performance because there are so many variables at play. As to "anecdotal evidence," we can, at least, look at certain decisions he made and decide whether we agree with those decisions on a "before the fact" basis. Of course, we have to acknowledge that the Manager had more facts at his disposal than we ever do but decisions like whether to start Marrero over Devers or leave Sale in the game are things that we can evaluate. Maybe you mean something else when you say "anecdotal evidence."

Either way, I just don't see how you or anyone else can claim that anything in this regard can be proven conclusively. And even if you do say it, my response is that what I've read here has not proven it to me on any level. My subjective view is that the Sox did the right thing today.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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TBH, this scares me way more:



Of course, the "it's not my money!" people are the same ones that rip on Cherington for Sandoval, Crawford, Castillo, Craig, etc. so what do I know.
Yes, I strongly believe that Miggy is his target, if his back checks out well at all.

EDIT--oops, wrong guy. You meant Stanton. I still say Miggy
 

drbretto

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Go back and re-read any thread from SoSH's archives re: big signings.

Some fans lurved the Crawford signing. "He'll age well!" "Speed is undervalued!" "Who cares about the 5-6-7th years, the first 4 will pay for themselves!" I had to try and argue Sandoval against "he's clutch in the playoffs!" "the Sox needed a 3B and got the best one!" "we can keep his weight under control!" I don't know if it was 50% but there was definite discussion, it was not a few lurkers popping in to be like "spend all the $$$!" Someone (Fangraphs? THT?) did on a piece on this where they asked fans to estimate WAR curves given contracts and like 90% of people overestimated the back end of deals.

Maybe it's just because I post far, far less than I used to but the highly analytic bent of SoSH has tilted significantly in the mid-2000s.
It's a quibble, maybe, but supporting a signing doesn't automatically mean they're taking a "it's not my money" approach. It just means some of them thought that these players would live up to the contract.

Overall I agree with you, btw. I just thought you were kind of doubling up on the ignorance out there. I think it's just two different sets of people (which may even include someone who learned a lesson or two since the Crawford signing).

I do agree with your last paragraph, though.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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Either way, I just don't see how you or anyone else can claim that anything in this regard can be proven conclusively. And even if you do say it, my response is that what I've read here has not proven it to me on any level. My subjective view is that the Sox did the right thing today.
The only thing I'm saying has been proven is that the "Farrell is a bad manager" argument has been pretty heavily deflated. The subjective arguments against it alone do significant damage to the position and the statistical evidence that we can point to when trying to suss out his value all suggest he was somewhere between average and good. I've posted some of these data and a link to a fangraphs piece with more in other threads, but we're rehashing here.

It was just worth a moment to point out that taking for granted that he was a bad manager isn't really based on any truly compelling evidence or arguments.
 

Remagellan

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Aren't good teams supposed to beat bad teams?

If DD and co. fired Farrell because he was 2-6 versus HOU/NYY this year in Sept/Oct, then this team is utterly screwed.
Well, it could be argued he got fired because they went 1-3 in a series against Houston in October.

My point was that we shouldn’t look at the close to the season the same way we do 2013, when the team won tough series from the Tigers, MFYs, O’s, and Rays in September to hold off the Rays for the division. We beat up on cupcakes down the stretch this year. We can celebrate that, but let’s not go overboard about it.
 

InsideTheParker

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Depends on who the replacement is. I'm sure plenty of people thought kicking Tito to the curb was a great move after 2011.
, , ,

I hope they don't look back in a year and regret this. I just don't see an obvious upgrade right now.
I didn't see the hiring of Dave Roberts by the Dodgers coming. It took me completely by surprise, and seems to be working out beautifully. And, if one is to believe the stories, he won the job through his interviews. It would be great if such a process ended up with a surprise gem for the Sox.
 

Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat

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That's damning with faint praise. Francona isn't even the best manager in the game today that the Red Sox considered prior to the 2004 season, though most Sox fans can't stomach the guy who is (and admit to how good he is) due to his stint in Tampa Bay. There's very little of substance that differentiates Farrell and Francona, but recency bias (and weird nostalgia) vaults Francona way above him. It's the old "why can't we get (managers) like that?" tendency of Boston fans, and it's kind of annoying. Francona missed the playoffs with much better teams than the 2017 Red Sox (see 2010 and 2011).
The same thing is already going on with Lovullo, who managed pretty much exactly like Farrell, and got swept in the first round of the playoffs.
 

snowmanny

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Two of the last three times they fired the manager they won the World Series the next year.

The third, not so much.
 

uk_sox_fan

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Also had two teams in 2016 and 2017 that faded badly in September
You are probably talking about finishing the season 2-4. The september record in 2017 was 17-10. Some would call 6 games small sample size. Or what did you mean?
I saw this in the other Farrell thread. Check the record, we played a lot of shitty teams down the stretch and beat up on them, and went 2-6 against the only two playoff teams we played (MFYs and Astros). Our great September was due in a large part to schedule luck.
The Sox went 19-8 in Sep 2016 (114-win pace) and 17-10 this September (102-win pace). In 2016 they entered the month 2 games out and proceeded to go 18-5 to seize the title, only 'fading' after they reduced the Magic # to 1 with 6 games to play.

This year they entered Sep up 4 1/2 games in the division but had to hold off a white-hot Yankee club that was going 20-8 for the month. Not only did they do so, but they never even made it dramatic as they used an 8-1 road trip to reduce the Magic # to 2 with 7 to play.

If your point is that Farrell couldn't win the meaningless games then I guess so, but I still don't know how you get 'faded badly' out of that!
 

Laser Show

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That's a pretty damning comment from Dombo. (paraphrasing)

Pete Abe: "Is there any number of wins that would have changed your decision?"

Dombo: "No"
 

canderson

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Farrell had one question for DD, DD wouldn't disclose it of course. Why even mention it then?

That was a poor press conference performance IMO.
 

mt8thsw9th

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If your point is that Farrell couldn't win the meaningless games then I guess so, but I still don't know how you get 'faded badly' out of that!
2006 Red Sox entered August first in the division and went 22-35 to close out the season
2010 Red Sox entered July .5 game out, and went 30-30 the remainder of the season
2011 Red Sox went 7-20 in September

After 2005, not a single Red Sox team won as many games as the 2016 or 2017 (or 2015) teams did. For all of Farrell's faults, his teams not performing well down the stretch is not one of them.
 

TheoShmeo

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DD's comments hardly constitute the beginning of the dreaded and overstated "smear campaign," Rembrat and Greg29fan.

That said, I'm not sure how Pete asked the question, but if JF had guided the Sox to a WS win (and likely even a WS apperance), there's no way he would have been fired.
 

Tyrone Biggums

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Theres got to be an issue in the clubhouse or something for that to be the case. I watched the press conference as well. Something happened that we didn't see because I honestly thought he was safe if he made the ALCS.
 

paulb0t

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I mean, now I kind of feel bad for the guy.

His in-game decisions were oftentimes headscratchingly bad, but by all accounts he did seem to have the clubhouse in order. I just hope the next manager isn't big-name gimmick (here's looking at you, Leyland), or someone who completely disregards modern analytics (Ausmus).
 

SpaceMan37

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Every team in baseball would be interested........ and the Sox would be last on HIS list given the way things ended with them.
Maybe not since Lucchino is gone. I doubt he'll be available though.

My hopes are on Cora, Kapler, or Dave Martinez. Discarcina is probably in the mix.
 

TheoShmeo

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His in-game decisions were oftentimes headscratchingly bad, but by all accounts he did seem to have the clubhouse in order. I just hope the next manager isn't big-name gimmick (here's looking at you, Leyland), or someone who completely disregards modern analytics (Ausmus).
I don't understand why people say this. In this last season alone, we saw

- Price dress down Eck with no apparent response by Farrell (though maybe there was one)

- Pedey mouth the silly "its not me, it's them (presumably either his pitcher or manager or both)

- the Apple Watches incident

- Pomeranz yelling at Farrell on the bench

Yeah, shit happens, but I don't see those events as indicating that Farrell was the master of the clubhouse.
 

PaulinMyrBch

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I have to think this is related to the Jessica Moran situation, although normally HR related firings occur at a time that has some proximity to the incident or investigation. But in the course of a baseball season, maybe that line gets blurred. He may have been on some form of administrative probation where the time period was set as the end of the 2017 season. In that case, John knew this was coming. His comments from the post game press conference would seem to indicate that.

If we can take DD at his word and this was unrelated to baseball success, my guess is they all knew what was coming.
 

drbretto

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That DD had made up his mind prior to the end of the season and won't disclose the details doesn't automatically mean it's some salacious off-field story. It could just mean he didn't like how he was performing but decided to to wait until after the season was over. Not giving up details is pretty standard stuff for any company firing someone.
 

Sox and Rocks

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I don't understand why people say this. In this last season alone, we saw

- Price dress down Eck with no apparent response by Farrell (though maybe there was one)

- Pedey mouth the silly "its not me, it's them (presumably either his pitcher or manager or both)

- the Apple Watches incident

- Pomeranz yelling at Farrell on the bench

Yeah, shit happens, but I don't see those events as indicating that Farrell was the master of the clubhouse.
Correct. As fans, we'll never know exactly what the clubhouse dynamic is like, but what little anecdotal evidence we do have suggests it was more likely problematic rather than advantageous.
 

SpaceMan37

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That you think this has been "proved" is odd. The argument for Farrell being good, bad or in between is inherently subjective. Managers cannot be graded with tools like batting average, ERA or other stats that measure actual performance because there are so many variables at play. As to "anecdotal evidence," we can, at least, look at certain decisions he made and decide whether we agree with those decisions on a "before the fact" basis. Of course, we have to acknowledge that the Manager had more facts at his disposal than we ever do but decisions like whether to start Marrero over Devers or leave Sale in the game are things that we can evaluate. Maybe you mean something else when you say "anecdotal evidence."

Either way, I just don't see how you or anyone else can claim that anything in this regard can be proven conclusively. And even if you do say it, my response is that what I've read here has not proven it to me on any level. My subjective view is that the Sox did the right thing today.
A good manager today, won't be a good manager tomorrow if he can't adapt. Baseball has changed so much in the last ten years that it takes a smart and flexible manager to change from year to year, game to game and even inning to inning. Farrell was way too slow to change and usually had to be nudged along by someone talking to him.
 

Sox and Rocks

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That DD had made up his mind prior to the end of the season and won't disclose the details doesn't automatically mean it's some salacious off-field story. It could just mean he didn't like how he was performing but decided to to wait until after the season was over. Not giving up details is pretty standard stuff for any company firing someone.
Agreed, but the innuendo itself is unnecessary. He could/should just say it was a decision that baseball operations reached together and leave it at that. No need to suggest any other factors, even if they existed.
 

fiskfan75

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Did we all forget watch-gate? That happened on his watch and was embarrassing to the organization.
 

drbretto

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Agreed, but the innuendo itself is unnecessary. He could/should just say it was a decision that baseball operations reached together and leave it at that. No need to suggest any other factors, even if they existed.
Good point, but I couldn't watch the PC. Did he volunteer it like that, or did someone press for more info and Pete Abe condensed it to 140 characters?
 

21st Century Sox

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I don't understand the need to share precisely the why. I prefer more cryptic responses about moving forward. It seems the Sox trash everyone on the way out.

Plus, if we pulled out the series, went on and won a championship, we were moving on from Farrell no matter what? Right......
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Theres got to be an issue in the clubhouse or something for that to be the case. I watched the press conference as well. Something happened that we didn't see because I honestly thought he was safe if he made the ALCS.
If I had to bet, I'd say it goes back to the handling of the Price-Eck situation.

But no way of knowing for sure.
 

Harry Hooper

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Did we all forget watch-gate? That happened on his watch and was embarrassing to the organization.
DD said the rest of the coaching staff could stay on if the new manager desired, so the watch thing is likely not relevant.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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I don't understand the need to share precisely the why. I prefer more cryptic responses about moving forward. It seems the Sox trash everyone on the way out.

Plus, if we pulled out the series, went on and won a championship, we were moving on from Farrell no matter what? Right......
Well if the Sox had managed to win Game 7 in 2003 and then the WS, Grady was still gonna be canned.
 

SpaceMan37

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My theory on the why is that he was too resistant to advice from the analytics guys. They were probably telling him to play Lin over Holt and that Brentz would likely be a big upgrade over Chris Young and he just refused. I would believe this before I'd believe clubhouse nonsense.
 

ehaz

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My theory on the why is that he was too resistant to advice from the analytics guys. They were probably telling him to play Lin over Holt and that Brentz would likely be a big upgrade over Chris Young and he just refused. I would believe this before I'd believe clubhouse nonsense.
What in Dave Dombrowski's entire career makes you believe this?
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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That DD had made up his mind prior to the end of the season and won't disclose the details doesn't automatically mean it's some salacious off-field story. It could just mean he didn't like how he was performing but decided to to wait until after the season was over. Not giving up details is pretty standard stuff for any company firing someone.
Right, this could just as easily be a matter of Dombrowski wanting to shift the front office's philosophy and Farrell not being on board, or maybe the two haven't gotten along (interpersonally, not professionally) well over the last two seasons and Dombrowski finally decided enough is enough. Maybe he doesn't like the in game tactical decisions. Maybe it's the Eck thing (the ownership group seems to like Eck quite a bit and Farrell backed the team in that incident). Maybe it's the Applegate thing. Maybe it's something we haven't gotten even a hint of.

All we know is that Dombrowski is certain he needs to move on from Farrell and very little could have changed that.
 

paulb0t

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I don't understand why people say this. In this last season alone, we saw

- Price dress down Eck with no apparent response by Farrell (though maybe there was one)

- Pedey mouth the silly "its not me, it's them (presumably either his pitcher or manager or both)

- the Apple Watches incident

- Pomeranz yelling at Farrell on the bench

Yeah, shit happens, but I don't see those events as indicating that Farrell was the master of the clubhouse.
Fair enough. I should've said "was liked" by the clubhouse, although that was really only based on a glossy piece on the heels of the lone LDS win. I went to search for it, and instead found a metric ton of articles from May about players being unhappy with JF. Mea Culpa.
 

drbretto

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That's a dick move by DD. I wanted Farrell gone, but there's no reason to influence his ability to land his next gig.
Was this a dick move by DD or Pete Abe? Honest question because I couldn't hear the press conference.

Because based on that tweet, I can't tell that DD didn't just stick to the facts first, then someone asks "would the decision be different if they won the ALDS?" and he says no. Then pressed for more info, he says no.

I'm not necessarily defending DD here, I'm just looking for context.
 

Al Zarilla

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Ken Rosental called this a couple of minutes before MLBN had it: "educated guess, he's out". I'm paying more attention to Ken from now on.

Just catching up to the thread, but DD said twice he wants a new manager with prior manager, or, at least, coaching experience, so, no Varitek, if anybody's thinking Tek. Said you don't talk to other clubs about their in place managers. So, no Lovullo. Said he has a list of potential mgr candidates. Boston is one of three places where some people just don't want the hassle. NY for sure is one of the others. Philly?