Fernando Tatis Jr. signs 14 year, 340M extension

jon abbey

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14 years ago the best young shortstops in baseball were Tulowitzki and Jose Reyes.
 

glennhoffmania

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24M/year doesn’t seem bad at all
I'm conflicted. In a vacuum, sure. But he's not even arb eligible until next year. What would those three years have cost otherwise?

Edit- and now that I see it starts this year, what would the first four years have cost? 24m for his last pre-arb year plus 72m for his arb years.
 

mauf

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Huge endorsement of Tatis’s character by Padres’ management.

I tend to view contracts through the lens of “is there any chance this contract is a bargain for the team?” (There’s always the chance a long-term deal will be a train wreck for the club, so a balanced long-term deal needs to be a potential bargain.) We need to wait on the details, especially on opt-outs, but this contract appears to pass my test with flying colors. Even assuming the pace of salary growth will slow a bit, Tatis could easily have been worth $50M a year when he hit free agency in five years.
 

Apisith

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Assuming he stays himself (no injuries, no unexpected decline), this would have been how much he would have earned without this deal over the next 14 years:
Year 1: 0.55m
Year 2: 1st year arb: 12m
2nd year arb: 22m
3rd year arb: 30m
Year 5-14 (ages 26-35): 35m/year: total 350m

Arb estimates I added ~10% to Mookie’s.

So he traded a chance at ~420m for a guaranteed 340m today. IIRC fangraphs did a study that the discount rates for long-term deals are around 30-40% (can’t find the article), so it looks like Tatis came out ahead based on that.
 

kelpapa

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Assuming he stays himself (no injuries, no unexpected decline), this would have been how much he would have earned without this deal over the next 14 years:
Year 1: 0.55m
Year 2: 1st year arb: 12m
2nd year arb: 22m
3rd year arb: 30m
Year 5-14 (ages 26-35): 35m/year: total 350m

Arb estimates I added ~10% to Mookie’s.

So he traded a chance at ~420m for a guaranteed 340m today. IIRC fangraphs did a study that the discount rates for long-term deals are around 30-40% (can’t find the article), so it looks like Tatis came out ahead based on that.
We will have to see the breakdown per year, but with the signing bonus, he's going to be making more up front. That is a major benefit as well.
 

Hendu for Kutch

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That seems like a great win/win contract. Tatis doesn't completely max out his potential income but protects himself from any career derailment possibilities, plus generations of his family will never have to worry about money. For the Padres, they have a franchise rock to build around who should provide great value for over a decade of his deal, even if they do take on some risk now. Love it.
 

bigq

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Rollins wasn’t young 14 years ago. (I mean, he was young relative to me, but not relative to someone like Tatis.)
True. That was his age 28 season. I overlooked the young qualifier which of course is directly relevant to Tatis.
 

LogansDad

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Love this for Tatis. Love this for the Padres. And, most importantly, I love this for baseball fans, and hope they don't have to trade him halfway through the contract and he gets to play his entire career with them.
 

ehaz

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Padres are having a dream off-season. They better start getting butts in seats in 2022 at least though.
 

grimshaw

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Juan Soto must be salivating. Same age (by about a month), Steamer projection 5.7 fwar, same arbitration year. Every bit as good as Tatis.
 

brandonchristensen

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Lol what a crazy contract. Meanwhile the Sox continue to lose the heart of their team while signing bit players to bit parts.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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14 years ago the best young shortstops in baseball were Tulowitzki and Jose Reyes.
I love Tatis Jr. but this was along the lines of my first thoughts upon reading about the contract. He's great. He should be great for a long time. But there's still a lot of risk for the Padres here. Hope it works out.
 

Tuff Ghost

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14 years ago the best young shortstops in baseball were Tulowitzki and Jose Reyes.
True, but to be fair, their bats were not nearly comparable to what Tatis, Jr. has accomplished already, so that should be added for perspective. He has another level of potential and ability than those two.

Player Age OPS+
Tatis 20 154
Tatis 21 155


Player Age OPS+
Reyes 20 102
Reyes 21 66
Reyes 22 81
Reyes Career 103


Player Age OPS+
Tulowitzki 21 53
Tulowitzki 22 109
Tulowitzki 23 85
Tulowitzki Career 120


As a 21 year old, Tatis, Jr. had the following percentile rankings for 2020:
  • Exit Velocity: 100th percentile
  • Hard Hit %: 100th percentile
  • xwOBA: 98th percentile
  • Barrel %: 100th percentile
  • Sprint Speed: 98th percentile
  • Outs Above Average: 99th percentile
His actual numbers were not just good, but his underlying numbers were incredible, too. I have questions about the Padres finances, but if the Red Sox had an opportunity for that contract, I'd do it 100 times out of 100.
 

grimshaw

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I was going to post something similar. Tulo was all star level when healthy and was always going to have a great floor because he was so good defensively. But he was never a perennial MVP candidate (2 times he was 5th). Tatis has already finished 3rd and his offense alone plays anywhere.

One minor concern is that he has already had a back and hammy issue, so wonder how long the speed part of his game when he's already playing a physically demanding position will hold up because he plays so hard. But a 24 mill AAV is clearable for above average shortstops (X has averaged 30 since his age 22 for comparison)

This is the first MLB megadeal I can recall thinking "yup, that guy is worth every penny," from an ownership perspective. The Padres have locked themselves in as a must watch team that will gain casual national fans, and their ratings and attendance are going to go through the roof.
 
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bsj

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I'd be curious how many players who sign 10+ year deals historically are performing on the tail end of them. In his case, I feel like $24 million will be a bargain for 7 years...about right for 4...and he will be DHing for the Yankees for 3.
 

johnnywayback

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Lol what a crazy contract. Meanwhile the Sox continue to lose the heart of their team while signing bit players to bit parts.
I know this talking point will endure forever, but the Red Sox tried to do a deal like this with Betts and he wasn't interested. Bogaerts was, and so they got it done. If Devers is interested, they'll get that done, too. Locking your young stars up to long-term deals as early in their careers as possible is different than paying market rate for impending free agents. Yada yada yada.

Anyway, this seems like a great deal for the Padres, if only because they'll never have to pay Tatis $40 million in a season. I'm trying to think of examples of contracts like these (pre-arb long-term extensions) that have backfired spectacularly for the team. Most of the really bad contracts that come to mind are guys who had reached or neared free agency -- Cabrera, Heyward, Shin-Soo Choo. Rougned Odor might be a minor example. Ryan Braun? I wonder if Arenado qualifies as a bad contract -- but even if he does, it's only because of the opt-out that forced their hand in the trade.
 

Bergs

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So this Tatis contract ends a year before Bobby Bonilla gets his last check from the Mets.
 

Bergs

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Or, you could read the thread before posting. Man this is happening a lot of SoSH these days.
Missed your post. Is self-flagellation pennace enough, or would you prefer I go for full-on self-immolation?
 

tims4wins

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Missed your post. Is self-flagellation pennace enough, or would you prefer I go for full-on self-immolation?
Not trying to pick on you, I've just seen it a lot on the board lately. Sorry if I was harsh. Someone else replied to my post too. So 2 of the previous 32 posts (all on this page) already referenced the same fact.
 

sean1562

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What are the odds that $24 million is even a ton of money for a starting player in 10 years? Trevor Bauer is getting paid 40/45 the next two seasons. Tulo was making $20 mil for his age 30-34 seasons from 2015-2019. Reyes made 22 mil for his age 32-34 seasons from 2015-2017. The Padres are in a big market that no longer has any other premier sports franchise. Even if he does suck the last 3 years of that deal, he just became the guaranteed face of the franchise for the 2020s. If I were a Padres fan, after seeing Tatis just signed a 14 year deal, I would buy a jersey if I hadn't already. This deal will drive fan engagement and sell a ton of merchandise.

edit: With all the discourse lamenting teams not spending, trading away their marquee players, I think this deal is actually great for baseball. San Diego is a wealthy large metro area, they can afford to have a large payroll, no? This isn't a small market team. If they make a deep playoff run and win a WS, I'm sure the value of the franchise itself will skyrocket.
 
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Kliq

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Wow, I just read that the Bobby Bonilla contract will expire one year AFTER this Tatis deal ends!
 

Kliq

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If you are Ronald Acuna and you signed that 8 year, $100 million extension in 2019 and now you see your peer already ink a $340 million deal, that has to sting. Of course, Acuna, barring injury, is probably still going to cash in when his current contract expires, as he will still just be 30 (although the 14 year deal will be off the table). Those team options in 2027 and 2028 have got to hurt though.

These early big-money extensions are good for both sides; it is better for the player to be making big money when they are putting up MVP-numbers, and it shows that the clubs are willing to spend. The unfortunate side is that they seem open only to players who happen to come up on clubs that are willing to pay big money for players. Something tells me that Wander Franco, Bobby Witt Jr. or Ke'Bryan Hayes will not be signing this kind of extension, no matter how good they are.
 

sean1562

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Ozzie Albies' agent should never work again. 7/35 with two team options for $7 mil a year? He is the player that really has to be kicking himself right now.
 

nattysez

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Padres are having a dream off-season. They better start getting butts in seats in 2022 at least though.
Their park is really great. If the team is halfway decent, I think people will start going to games.
 

Rovin Romine

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His actual numbers were not just good, but his underlying numbers were incredible, too. I have questions about the Padres finances, but if the Red Sox had an opportunity for that contract, I'd do it 100 times out of 100.
The numbers, raw and final, are impressive, and he's young enough for this to grab all of his prime years.

That said, I'm not sure I do it.

He hit very well in the minors, but at the end of the day he's a guy who has played half a MLB season at age 20, and a Covid-truncated season at age 21. Total MLB games: 143. In 2019, he missed 30 days with a strained hamstring, and was shut down in August with a stress reaction in his lower back. He only played 88 games in the minors in 2018, so I wonder if there's an injury involved (but maybe not - he was only 19 in AA!)
 

IpswichSox

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No one knows Tatis' medicals like the Padres do, so you have to give them the benefit of the doubt that they did their due diligence and went into this with eyes wide open.

Impressive offseason and a heck of a window that's just opening for the team.
 

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I think it's much more that they can see what happened with Mookie and see the value to locking him up while they're trying to rebuild the fan base. If the deal doesn't work out they probably figure they're better off going the Arenado route... the downside is much less palatable if his deal were to turn into Lindor Redux...
 

Tuff Ghost

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The numbers, raw and final, are impressive, and he's young enough for this to grab all of his prime years.

That said, I'm not sure I do it.

He hit very well in the minors, but at the end of the day he's a guy who has played half a MLB season at age 20, and a Covid-truncated season at age 21. Total MLB games: 143. In 2019, he missed 30 days with a strained hamstring, and was shut down in August with a stress reaction in his lower back. He only played 88 games in the minors in 2018, so I wonder if there's an injury involved (but maybe not - he was only 19 in AA!)
He has been absolutely elite for 629 PA as a 20-21 year old in MLB. The 154 career OPS+ is incredible. Mookie Betts has only once surpassed that (his age 25, 2018 season: 186 OPS+, career 135 OPS+). I honestly think he has been so good that the sample size becomes less worrisome.

Since Statcast started in 2015, his 62.2% hard-hit percentage in 2020 is the number one ranked hard-hit% season among qualified batters. His 19.5% barrel percentage in 2020 is the sixth best season on the list. No other players aged 21 or younger make the top 100. The only other players 22 or younger to make the top 100 best seasons for barrel % are Juan Soto (#8 on the list at age 22 with 18.3% barrels in 2020) and Ronald Acuna, Jr. (#38 on the list at age 22 with 15% barrels in 2019).

Maybe his elite defense and sprint speed will diminish in the latter half of the contract, but he hits so well he really could shift anywhere else down the defensive spectrum and still be a top bat.

To compare his career barrel% and hard-hit% to a few other top shortstops:
Player Barrel % Hard-Hit%
Tatis, Jr. 15.9% 51.7%
Story 10.9% 43.8%
Seager 9.0% 43.6%
Correa 8.5% 41.1%
Turner 6.5% 39.2%
Lindor 6.4% 38.0%
Bogaerts 5.6% 36.5%

Even if 2019-2020 was his peak (I'd bet against that), he could decline and still be one of the best hitting shortstops in baseball. The crazy thought, though, is not about a decline- what if he gets better?
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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I'm trying to think of examples of contracts like these (pre-arb long-term extensions) that have backfired spectacularly for the team. Most of the really bad contracts that come to mind are guys who had reached or neared free agency -- Cabrera, Heyward, Shin-Soo Choo. Rougned Odor might be a minor example. Ryan Braun? I wonder if Arenado qualifies as a bad contract -- but even if he does, it's only because of the opt-out that forced their hand in the trade.
Longoria? Initially signed a six year deal for $17.5M with three club options less than a week after he was first called up. With a year plus those options remaining, they picked up all the options ($30M) and added a six year extension for $100M with a club option for a seventh year ($13M). So all told, without sniffing arbitration or free agency, he got 15/147.5 with a possibility of it being 16/160.5. The Rays traded him after year 10 of that 15 year deal, right as the second extension kicked in and before his 10/5 rights kicked in (so he had no trade protections).

Didn't necessarily backfire on the Rays so much as maybe on Longoria. He took less money in order to commit himself to a cash-poor team then they dumped him right before he could have exerted any control over where he went next. I haven't deep dived the return package and what they might have gotten out of it if they flipped any of them, but they got Denard Span, Christian Arroyo (hello!), and two other prospects that have yet to get to the big leagues.
 

glennhoffmania

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The Bonilla thing is kind of funny but the idea that the Mets are still paying him for nothing totally wrong. And at the time the deferral made sense for the Mets. Deferred money isn't necessarily a bad thing. If Madoff didn't steal their money they would've made out bigly on the deal.
 

mauidano

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Happy for Don Orsillo who gets to be a part of the excitement in SD. The Dodgers obviously upped the game and the Padres went all-in with their off-season. Enormous pressure to live up to those contracts but you know how the saying goes; "Nice work if you can get it...".
 

HowBoutDemSox

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The Bonilla thing is kind of funny but the idea that the Mets are still paying him for nothing totally wrong. And at the time the deferral made sense for the Mets. Deferred money isn't necessarily a bad thing. If Madoff didn't steal their money they would've made out bigly on the deal.
Well, yeah, if you could guarantee above-market returns with no risk every single year, deferring payment on the money to invest it makes sense. The problem is that there is no such thing as guaranteed above-market returns with no risk and the Wilpons should have known better.