Fernando Tatis Jr. signs 14 year, 340M extension

Rovin Romine

Johnny Rico
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 14, 2005
13,479
Miami (oh, Miami!)
He has been absolutely elite for 629 PA as a 20-21 year old in MLB. The 154 career OPS+ is incredible. Mookie Betts has only once surpassed that (his age 25, 2018 season: 186 OPS+, career 135 OPS+). I honestly think he has been so good that the sample size becomes less worrisome.
I was thinking of durability and injury, not arguing that his statistical record is too small to project a talent level.
 

amRadio

lurker
Feb 7, 2019
527
I think Tatis is the next Griffey. This was a very smart deal. Those Barrel% and Hard Hit % stats vs. the field are eye popping and basically back up the eye test. I haven't been this interested in a non-Sox player since I was a kid. IMO, Tatis will push Trout out of the picture as the best player in baseball before too long. Give it a year or two.
 

opes

Doctor Tongue
SoSH Member
I think Tatis is the next Griffey. This was a very smart deal. Those Barrel% and Hard Hit % stats vs. the field are eye popping and basically back up the eye test. I haven't been this interested in a non-Sox player since I was a kid. IMO, Tatis will push Trout out of the picture as the best player in baseball before too long. Give it a year or two.
How do you figure? I'm curious to see a projection like that. edit: Tatis strikes out nearly twice as much, his OBP and SLG is definitely lower than Trout. Trout walks at an enormous rate compared to Tatis. His defense isnt any more impressive than Trout is, so I dont see how you can make a comparison with lower numbers.

I can understand a handful or so of arm-chair claims, but really I see most of your posts like that. I make a few bonehead posts occasionally, but never without backing up some slight bit of evidence.

You can look for yourself from 2019:

https://stathead.com/baseball/player-comparison.cgi?request=1&sum=0&type=b&player_id_1_hint=Mike+Trout&player_id_1_select=Mike+Trout&player_id_1=troutmi01&fromyear_1=2019&toyear_1=2019&player_id_2_hint=Fernando+Tatis+Jr.&player_id_2_select=Fernando+Tatis+Jr.&player_id_2=tatisfe02&fromyear_2=2019&toyear_2=2019
 
Last edited:

absintheofmalaise

too many flowers
Dope
SoSH Member
Mar 16, 2005
15,895
The gran facenda
I think Tatis is the next Griffey. This was a very smart deal. Those Barrel% and Hard Hit % stats vs. the field are eye popping and basically back up the eye test. I haven't been this interested in a non-Sox player since I was a kid. IMO, Tatis will push Trout out of the picture as the best player in baseball before too long. Give it a year or two.
Since you're comparing players here you need to show your work. That holds true for many of your posts. If you're going to just post your opinion without evidence don't bother.
 

sean1562

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 17, 2011
3,216
https://stathead.com/baseball/player-comparison.cgi?request=1&sum=0&type=b&player_id_1_hint=Mike+Trout&player_id_1_select=Mike+Trout&player_id_1=troutmi01&fromyear_1=2013&toyear_1=2013&player_id_2_hint=Fernando+Tatis+Jr.&player_id_2_select=Fernando+Tatis+Jr.&player_id_2=tatisfe02&fromyear_2=2020&toyear_2=2019
If you compare their age 21 seasons they are a lot more similar. Truncated season for Tatis but he did manage to drop his K% to 23.7 compared to Trout's 19%, his BB% rose to 10.5% to Trout's 15.4%, and he has a slightly higher slugging percentage. I don't think it is out of the realm of possibility that Tatis continues to improve considering his age and obvious talent and Trout has to start declining at some point right?
 

sean1562

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 17, 2011
3,216
https://stathead.com/baseball/player-comparison.cgi?request=1&sum=0&type=b&player_id_1_hint=Ken+Griffey+Jr.&player_id_1_select=Ken+Griffey+Jr.&player_id_1=griffke02&fromyear_1=1991&toyear_1=1991&player_id_2_hint=Fernando+Tatis+Jr.&player_id_2_select=Fernando+Tatis+Jr.&player_id_2=tatisfe02&fromyear_2=2020&toyear_2=2020
With the Griffey comparison, age 21 seasons they ended the year with the exact same OPS+, 155. Some of the Tatis numbers are probably fueled by his ridiculous 20.5% HR/FB percentage. Again, short season so that is all we really have.
 

grimshaw

Member
SoSH Member
May 16, 2007
3,603
Portland
I'd be curious how many players who sign 10+ year deals historically are performing on the tail end of them. In his case, I feel like $24 million will be a bargain for 7 years...about right for 4...and he will be DHing for the Yankees for 3.
Hell, Richie Zisk didn't even play the final 4 years of his deal. https://www.fangraphs.com/players/richie-zisk/1014455/stats?position=DH/OF
10 years 2.75 million in 1978.

We shouldn't speak his name here, but A-Rod was still above average after his first 10 year deal.
 

glennhoffmania

essential somewhere
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jul 25, 2005
8,403,581
NY
Well, yeah, if you could guarantee above-market returns with no risk every single year, deferring payment on the money to invest it makes sense. The problem is that there is no such thing as guaranteed above-market returns with no risk and the Wilpons should have known better.
Sure, and I wouldn't even defend the financial strategy. I'm simply saying that the annual joke about how the Mets are still paying Bonilla is dumb. Lots of contracts have deferred money. The main criticism should be the interest rate they agreed to but that isn't good comedy material.

Someone, I think at ESPN, did a financial analysis of the deal a while back and I think they concluded that if Bonilla got a lump sum payment and invested it well he would've been better off than with the deferral structure.
 

Tuff Ghost

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
523
The comparison to Griffey Jr. seems like a fair one, while Trout is a step too far. Below are the combined numbers for Tatis, Griffey, Trout, and A-Rod for their 20 and 21 year old seasons in MLB. It's really not crazy to see A-Rod potential in Tatis. The superficial comparisons to Griffey are also kind of fun: son of a big leaguer, exciting young talent, fast, good defender, great hitter, fun all around player. Tatis is such a joy to watch that I am leaning towards getting MLB.tv just to catch some Padres games this year. He's special.

Combined seasons in MLB for ages 20 and 21:
Player PA OPS+ BA OBP SLG OPS
Tatis 629 154 .301 .374 .582 .956
Trout 1,355 174 .324 .416 .560 .976
Griffey 1,299 145 .313 .382 .503 .885
A-Rod 1,315 141 .329 .383 .564 .947
 

Tuff Ghost

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
523
Some of the Tatis numbers are probably fueled by his ridiculous 20.5% HR/FB percentage. Again, short season so that is all we really have.
When you hit the ball as hard as he does, the HR/FB % is not really ridiculous. TangoTiger recently had a Twitter thread discussing how looking at a batter's top 50% of hard-hit balls will best teach you about the batter. The bottom 50% tend to get similar results from batter to batter, but the hard-hitting batters separate in their upper 50%, which is even better than looking at a simple average exit velocity for all of their batted balls.

I looked at all of the exit velocities for each at bat by Tatis last year and his median exit velocity was 99.1 mph. When you take the half of his balls he hit above that velocity, the average is 105.6 mph. TangoTiger found that players whose top-half of batted balls were 104 mph had a ridiculous wOBA of .841 on those balls. (A player with a top-half batted ball average of 94 mph would have a wOBA of .413, by comparison.)

His fly balls are hit hard. I looked at all of his balls hit at a launch angle of 25-50 degrees last year and the average exit velocity on those balls was 97.9 mph. When you hit your fly balls over 95 mph consistently, you are going to miss outfielders and leave the park. (If you don't hit balls that hard, it's probably better to aim for the 11 to 17 degree launch angle.)
 

VORP Speed

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
5,370
Ground Zero
I have never heard of this before in my life. An investment firm invested in Tatis early and now they are going to rake in maybe $30 million off this deal.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fernando-tatis-jr-340-million-investment-fund-padres-11613732572?page=1
Seems like these groups could really prey on families in need/financial distress.
Or it could be the financial cushion an 18-20 year old needs to be able to avoid signing an aggressively team-friendly extension.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

Well-Known Member
Silver Supporter
SoSH Member
Jan 23, 2009
14,235
Maine
Or it could be the financial cushion an 18-20 year old needs to be able to avoid signing an aggressively team-friendly extension.
How many 18-20 year olds are signing long term deals of any kind? While there are no doubt players in that age range who may struggle financially with the piss-poor salary structure in the minors, none of those players are being offered big league contracts that young. If they are that good that young, I would imagine they've commanded signing bonuses that take care of the economic anxiety worries.
 

VORP Speed

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 23, 2010
5,370
Ground Zero
How many 18-20 year olds are signing long term deals of any kind? While there are no doubt players in that age range who may struggle financially with the piss-poor salary structure in the minors, none of those players are being offered big league contracts that young. If they are that good that young, I would imagine they've commanded signing bonuses that take care of the economic anxiety worries.
Yeah, but that’s the point, isn’t it? The investment group is taking risk in cutting these deals with young players before they become sure things. And that level of risk drives the returns.
 

Lose Remerswaal

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Yeah, but that’s the point, isn’t it? The investment group is taking risk in cutting these deals with young players before they become sure things. And that level of risk drives the returns.
Does the article say what the payoff is? This strikes me as one of the deals where someone takes advantage of the young Latin American players in exchange for big percentages of their signing bonus,
 

Kliq

Member
SoSH Member
Mar 31, 2013
15,396
I have never heard of this before in my life. An investment firm invested in Tatis early and now they are going to rake in maybe $30 million off this deal.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/fernando-tatis-jr-340-million-investment-fund-padres-11613732572?page=1
Seems like these groups could really prey on families in need/financial distress.
They could, it seems weird that Tatis Jr. would go this route. His Dad made approximately $18 million in the majors, so he likely wasn't someone living paycheck to paycheck in the minors.
 

Ford Frick's Asterisk

Member
SoSH Member
May 5, 2017
953
Big League Advance already made headlines a few years ago when Francisco Mejia sued them. I find it odd that Fernando Tatis Jr hooked up with them. I guess I really don't know the details of his upbringing, but I'd have assumed the son of a former MLB player who made about $18M in his career wouldn't get involved with baseball loan sharks.
 

NDame616

will bailey
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2006
1,808
From what I've read they may hyper target Latin players who may not fully understand some of the language / nuances in the contract. Or have the legal guidance to steer them in the right direction
 

loshjott

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 30, 2004
11,431
Silver Spring, MD
Founder and CEO is former Phillie Michael Schwimer, who at least ought to be best remembered for giving up a game-tying home run to the first batter he ever faced and pointing at the ball off the bat as though it was a routine fly.

View: https://youtu.be/w5xZ71iMqAU?t=51
Watch the full clip, great game. After that HR Drew Storen blew the save in the top of the ninth then Ian Desmond tied it with a 2-strike, 2-out homer in the bottom - then Johnny Gomes won it on a walk off HBP from Brad Lidge.
 

DJnVa

Dorito Dawg
SoSH Member
Dec 16, 2010
44,376
Big League Advance already made headlines a few years ago when Francisco Mejia sued them. I find it odd that Fernando Tatis Jr hooked up with them. I guess I really don't know the details of his upbringing, but I'd have assumed the son of a former MLB player who made about $18M in his career wouldn't get involved with baseball loan sharks.
In an article I read, Tatis said he really didn't want to comment, said it was a "family decision".