Foundation for next year?

[carnie207]

So I've been thinking about what this Sox team will be over the next 5 years or so. I think the first thing the Red Sox need to do is lock up Mookie Betts. This should be an absolute no brainers. The guy is a home grown super star with all five tools. Plus by all accounts he's a good guy. Locking him up long term should be priority numbers 1,2 & 3. I know we're looking at at least $30 M a year but it has to be done. Letting him walk would be like letting Carlton Fisk walk.
So that would give us a positional foundation of Betts, Bogaerts, Vazquez. Devers, & Benintendi for at least the next few years.
For me the question becomes do you really want to keep the super team together (and I do), you have to also find a way to hang onto Jackie Bradley Jr. and J.D.Martinez.Of the two Bradley would be the easiest to move on without, with Rusney Castillo just biding his time in Pawtucket. Or is it Worcester now? Castillo is a fully capable major league Center Fielder who needs to play or get traded to a team who will play him. Bradley probably has a lot more trade value, and I would like to see a good, cheap pitcher come back. I think I'll keep coming back to this thread as I try to flesh out my ideas on our position players and pitchers. Next I'll take a closer look at theoutfield.

 

[CarolinaBeerGuy]

I like what your saying, but Rusney is never getting an opportunity with his contract, for better or worse.

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

Some good thoughts there, Carnie. Pretty much everyone agrees Mookie needs to be resigned unless you want to restock the farm system. I'm not sure $30 million does it, and I'm not sure the budget allows for more than that without breaking the top salary cap penalty level.

Not sure where you get your info that Rusney Castillo is fully capable to play in the majors. I'd be interested in hearing your argument on that.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Wanting to lock Mookie Betts up long term is absolutely a no-brainer. Doing it is not so easy. I have no doubt that he would like to stay in Boston for his career, but I also have no doubt he won't sign a long term contract until he is able to test the free agent market next winter. The most I expect this winter as far as Mookie goes is a one-year deal. People need to accept that reality and not panic over it.

 

[chawson]

Wanting to lock Mookie Betts up long term is absolutely a no-brainer. Doing it is not so easy. I have no doubt that he would like to stay in Boston for his career, but I also have no doubt he won't sign a long term contract until he is able to test the free agent market next winter. The most I expect this winter as far as Mookie goes is a one-year deal. People need to accept that reality and not panic over it.

I’m probably reading this wrong, but do you mean that the most you expect is that Mookie would sign a one-year extension for 2021? Or just that he’d agree to arbitration terms for 2020?

Re the foundation, I wonder how much it’d take to extend Devers, and whether Acuña’s 8-year, $100 million deal could be some sort of benchmark even though Devers is a couple years further along his service time.

Mookie and JDM are clearly the first dominos, but I think there’ll be some shakeups this winter. Bogaerts, Devers, Sale, Price, EdRod, Casas, Taylor and probably Darwinzon all seem safe to me, but Chavis, Benintendi, Bradley, Dalbec, Duran, Barnes and Workman are all candidates to be moved, some more than others.

 

[JMDurron]

Mookie Betts being an awesome player that I love to watch and hope stays in Boston is absolutely a given. Locking him up long term, at presumably FA-equivalent length and AAV, on the other hand, is absolutely not a no-brainer. Unlike when David Price and JD Martinez were given their current deals, this team is no longer in the "up-and-coming young core to build around" phase, it is now firmly in the "pick and choose who leaves and who stays at much higher prices and fill in the gaps with FAs" phase, IMO. The team now has to pick where it's next holes are going to be, and still have sufficient resources left over to fill them in if they desire to have a competitive team in any given season.

The 2019 season proves that, even if the team can have the highest payroll in the game for consecutive seasons, there are levels past which the ownership/FO is not willing to spend. In other words, there actually is a budget, and deciding where to allocate scarce resources is going to be a major issue in the Betts-or-no-Betts discussion. This isn't the NFL, where a Betts-equivalent contract is almost certainly the kiss of death to the rest of the roster, but it's not a trivial matter, either. He's also a well-rounded player with two key components of that skillset (speed/baserunning and OF defense) unlikely to age well during his next contract. He's nearly guaranteed to be a poor value in his next contract, even if he remains a really good player - because he's naturally going to go from a great player to a really good (or just good) player while being paid at a great player level in that contract. I'd rather watch Mookie Betts than Mike Trout, but only Trout consistently displays the offensive output necessary to provide near-parity value on that kind of contract. Given the position that he plays, I'd suggest a closer analogy might be letting Fred Lynn walk instead of Carlton Fisk - I think it would be unwise to project Fisk's supernatural ability to play a critical defensive position to maintain itself for quite as long in Mookie's case.

Aside from Bogaerts, Devers, Vazquez, Sale, Price, Eovaldi, and Rodriguez, there's not much that can be assumed about the roster across the next few seasons. Mookie is (IMO) an obvious "maybe" in terms of being able to keep him for the long haul and still have a remaining roster that is competitive. Benintendi (barring a major bounceback year in 2020 defensively) seems like an obvious "year-to-year until a FA" guy to me. He's just good enough to want to keep while he is cost controlled, but not worth paying as a FA for that bat as a below-average defensive LFer who plays Fenway's LF quite well. JBJ seems similarly unlikely to maintain his value into his 30s, barring some kind of radical change in his offensive profile. JBJ is a trickier issue unless there are solid OF prospects in the pipeline, as the possibility of losing all 3 of the current starters in the OF (2 after 2020, 1 after 2022 if I'm reading this correctly) looms large. One of JBJ or Betts is likely necessary defensively, even with likely declines in range for both of them. Unless the team thinks that Benintendi would be a better defensive CF than he is in LF (better jumps on the ball from reading it off the bat, or something only they'd be likely to be aware of), having either a premium (JBJ) or at least average (Betts) defender in CF is necessary to pair with Benintendi in LF, and that's without even addressing the likely RF hole as well. JD Martinez seems to either be a DH or a butcher based on this season, so he's not a factor in the OF discussion in my mind.

So, it seems entirely likely that the team is going to need at least one premium defensive OFer for CF/RF after 2020, on top of needing a reliable starter in the rotation, a starting-quality 2B or 1B (that's assuming Chavis can be one of those two spots, which is far from certain right now), a possible JD Martinez replacement immediately, and the usual talent churn in the bullpen. Unless I'm radically misunderstanding something here, it looks like the team is facing a choice of either Mookie Betts and a weaker replacement OFer, 1B/2B, SP, and bullpen, or JBJ and more $ to spend on those positions on the FA market.

 

[Byrdbrain]

Some good thoughts there, Carnie. Pretty much everyone agrees Mookie needs to be resigned unless you want to restock the farm system. I'm not sure $30 million does it, and I'm not sure the budget allows for more than that without breaking the top salary cap penalty level.

Not sure where you get your info that Rusney Castillo is fully capable to play in the majors. I'd be interested in hearing your argument on that.

Yeah there is no evidence that Rusney is fully capable of playing in the majors. He's been a good, not great, player in AAA through and now past his prime. There is nothing to indicate he would be better than a below average MLB player. When you throw in his salary and what it would cost the Sox to put him on the 40 man roster it seems like there is no chance of him playing in Boston next year.

JBJ is an interesting case who has been discussed in a couple of different threads now. His fielding is still very good but it won't be getting any better as he ages and his hitting, well everyone knows the deal there. I can't imagine they will give him the $10M I've heard it is estimated he would get in arbitration so I think he'll be non-tendered. At that point he becomes a free agent and will the Sox then be able to bring him back at half of that price or will he go somewhere else?

 

[StuckOnYouk]

I get the feeling Mookie gets traded for 2 to 3 prospects and they lock up Devers this offseason.
Unless Mookie changes his tune on finding some kind of middle ground with the Sox.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

So I've been thinking about what this Sox team will be over the next 5 years or so. I think the first thing the Red Sox need to do is lock up Mookie Betts. This should be an absolute no brainers. The guy is a home grown super star with all five tools. Plus by all accounts he's a good guy. Locking him up long term should be priority numbers 1,2 & 3. I know we're looking at at least $30 M a year but it has to be done. Letting him walk would be like letting Carlton Fisk walk.

You do understand that there are two parties to a baseball contract, and that both parties have to agree to the terms for the contract to happen? Phrases like "letting him walk" are both unrealistic and a bit demeaning. It's not up to the Boston Red Sox where Mookie Betts plays in 2021 and after. It's up to Mookie Betts. I hope he stays here, and certainly (unless Mookie is dead set against staying) the Sox front office has some ability to influence his choice with what they offer and how they handle negotiations. But it's ultimately not their decision.

So that would give us a positional foundation of Betts, Bogaerts, Vazquez. Devers, & Benintendi for at least the next few years.
For me the question becomes do you really want to keep the super team together (and I do), you have to also find a way to hang onto Jackie Bradley Jr. and J.D.Martinez.Of the two Bradley would be the easiest to move on without, with Rusney Castillo just biding his time in Pawtucket. Or is it Worcester now? Castillo is a fully capable major league Center Fielder who needs to play or get traded to a team who will play him. Bradley probably has a lot more trade value, and I would like to see a good, cheap pitcher come back.

If by "a good, cheap pitcher" you mean something like a decent 7th-inning reliever in his first arb year, that sounds possible. But really, JBJ has very little trade value at this point. He's a league-average (at best), glove-first outfielder about to hit his 30s, with one year of control left. It's hard to imagine any teams looking at him this winter and saying "there's our difference-maker," unless perhaps somebody thinks they have a magic formula to make him more consistent at the plate. It'll probably make the most sense for the Sox to hang onto him for one more year, depending on how other dominoes fall.

 

[BaseballJones]

Castillo becomes a viable option in CF if two things occur: (1) He demonstrates that he can handle the job, and (2) his cost to the Sox is less than other, roughly equal, alternatives. JBJ could have made (2) a possibility if his expected salary moving forward was, say, like $15-18m a year. But I don't think he'll earn that much and so it's not really cost-effective to promote Castillo.

On Mookie...I agree with @JMDurron - we are in a different phase for this organization. The young kids have grown up and are about to make big money (not all of them, of course; see Devers, Rafael). So the Sox need to be judicious in who they give the big contracts to.

Here's the younger core and their situations:

Betts
- 2019 (26): $20m
- 2020 (27): arb (so he'll likely make north of $20m
- 2021 (28): FA

Bogaerts
- 2019 (26): $12m
- 2020 (27): $20m
- 2021 (28): $20m
- 2022 (29): $20m
- 2023 (30): $20m
- 2024 (31): $20m
- 2025 (32): $20m
- 2026 (33): FA (has a $20m vesting option) - God Bogey's contract is a beautiful thing, isn't it?

Benintendi
- 2019 (24): $717k
- 2020 (25): arb
- 2021 (26): arb
- 2022 (27): arb
- 2023 (28): FA

Bradley
- 2019 (29): $8.5m
- 2020 (30): arb
- 2021 (31): FA

Vazquez
- 2019 (28): $2.9m
- 2020 (29): $4.2m
- 2021 (30): $6.3m
- 2022 (31): FA ($7m team option)

Devers
- 2019 (22): $614k
- 2020 (23): pre-arb
- 2021 (24): arb
- 2022 (25): arb
- 2023 (26): arb
- 2024 (27): FA

Chavis
- 2019 (23): minimum
- 2020 (24): pre-arb
- 2021 (25): pre-arb
- 2022 (26): arb
- 2023 (27): arb
- 2024 (28): arb
- 2025 (29): FA

Rodriguez
- 2019 (26): $4.3m
- 2020 (27): arb
- 2021 (28): arb
- 2022 (29): arb
- 2023 (30): FA

To look at these guys another way, year by year:

2019
- Betts (26): $20m
- Bogaerts (26): $12m
- Benintendi (24): $717k
- Bradley (29): $8.5m
- Vazquez (28): $2.9m
- Devers (22): $614k
- Chavis (23): min
- Rodriguez (26): $4.3m

2020
- Betts (27): arb
- Bogaerts (27): $20m
- Benintendi (25): arb
- Bradley (30): arb
- Vazquez (29): $4.2m
- Devers (23): pre-arb
- Chavis (24): pre-arb
- Rodriguez (27): arb

2021
- Betts (28): FA
- Bogaerts (28): $20m
- Benintendi (26): arb
- Bradley (31): FA
- Vazquez (30): $6.3m
- Devers (24): arb
- Chavis (25): pre-arb
- Rodriguez (28): arb

2022
- Bogaerts (29): $20m
- Benintendi (27): arb
- Vazquez (31): FA ($7m team option)
- Devers (25): arb
- Chavis (26): arb
- Rodriguez (29): arb

2023
- Bogaerts (30): $20m
- Benintendi (28): FA
- Devers (26): arb
- Chavis (27): arb
- Rodriguez (30): FA

2024
- Bogaerts (31): $20m
- Devers (27): FA
- Chavis (28): arb

2025
- Bogaerts (32): $20m
- Chavis (29): FA

2026
- Bogaerts (33): FA ($20m vesting option)

 

[YTF]

Martinez is a bit of a wild card in this. Six weeks ago I'm thinking there is no way that he opts out of his current contract. Since then he's be incredibly productive and I wonder if he test's the FA waters again. Opting out will free up some cash that I'm guessing would go Mookie's way, because they can't afford to lose both if they trade Mookie can they? If JD doesn't opt out can the Sox realistically keep both under the restraints of the cap? If JD doesn't opt out, do you try to move Mookie for a "haul" and risk having neither in 2021 because Martinez has an out in each of the next three seasons? There is enough of a young core there that seems to be proven to this point where the offense would still be better than most if both left, but there is a lot to think about with this.

 

[soxin6]

I get the feeling Mookie gets traded for 2 to 3 prospects and they lock up Devers this offseason.
Unless Mookie changes his tune on finding some kind of middle ground with the Sox.

I tend to agree with this. It would be wonderful for the Sox to re-sign Mookie during the offseason, but he has indicated he desire to test free agency. I don't think the Red Sox will be willing to take that chance and will trade him, either in the off season or at the trading deadline, to make sure they end up with more than a draft pick.

 

[BoSox Rule]

- 2019 (26): $20m
- 2020 (27): arb (so he'll likely make north of $20m
- 2021 (28):

Bogaerts
- 2019 (26): $12m
- 2020 (27): $20m
- 2021 (28): $20m
- 2022 (29): $20m
- 2023 (30): $20m
- 2024 (31): $20m
- 2025 (32): $20m
- 2026 (33): FA (has a $20m vesting option) - God Bogey's contract is a beautiful thing, isn't it?-

Betts is going to be a lot closer to $30 million (possibly more) than $20 million. Also, Bogaerts can opt out after 2022.

 

[nvalvo]

In terms of near-term help from the farm:

So it looks like:

• The team has a shot to fill in the first base position from within from among Chavis, Travis, and Dalbec, with Dalbec likely possessing the highest ceiling: 27 HR in the minors is a ton, and 7 in 123 AAA PA is really a ton. Given the financial realities, I think that this is something that we should consider, especially given the positional flexibility each of those guys has (Chavis 1B/2B/3B; Dalbec 1B/3B; Travis 1B/LF). Of course, they're all right-handed...
• Jarren Duran is a possible September call up in 2020, and perhaps a future replacement for Bradley in CF. Pending continued progress (he had a somewhat rocky transition to AA, as many prospects do) Duran profiles as at least a 4th OF/PR, with good chance to start in CF; some doubt he has a great arm for right.
• CJ Chatham again looks like a big leaguer after a solid offensive season in Portland, but with all of the middle infielders we have around here, he might make as much sense as a trade candidate. (Of course, it would also be nice to have a good SS on the 40-man in the event of injuries...)

On the pitching side of things:

• We've now promoted a ton of our high-minors pitching into the bullpen, with some pretty tremendous results from Darwinzon Hernandez and Josh Taylor. Shawaryn is another guy who might follow that path next season, who looks like he has the repertoire (his plus pitch is a slider) and arm slot to be a strong option against righties. Durbin Feltman had an up and down season in Portland — mostly down — but showed flashes.
• In terms of near-term help in the rotation, RHP Tanner Houck and Bryan Mata are the only real prospects. Houck was successful in AAA down the stretch in a relief role, but is reportedly going to start in the AFL. He has mid-90s velocity and a good slider, and a changeup that remains a work in progress. He's 23. Mata, 20, is another RHP with a well-developed four-pitch mix. After a tremendous first half in the Carolina League, where he was the youngest player at the beginning of the season, he reached Portland mid-season and struggled a bit against much older competition. If he does well in AA in the first half next season, he could arrive pretty quickly.
• Groome is a wildcard. He's healthy now and looked good in his four innings of work, and so you could imagine him rising fast, but there's certainly no way one can count on anything from him in the near-term.
• Also, Darwinzon Hernandez could potentially be moved back to the rotation, but his high walk rates — more than tolerable from the bullpen while he's striking out half the hitters he faces — could be a liability in that role. If I'm Dombrowski, I leave him in a setup role.

All told, not a ton of help coming from the farm. A 1B and a depth SP option, and maybe a right-handed middle reliever, with a depth SS option and an outfield candidate behind them.

 

[DeadlySplitter]

a lot of the 2020 strategy is going to depend on Sale's health, for better or worse.

 

[YTF]

Yeah, but they may not truly know that until much of the off season FA/trade activity subsides.

 

[YTF]

In regards to Rusney Castillo, I just took a look at his contract status. He's a free agent after next season. Hard to believe that he's now 32 years old and it will have been seven years already.

 

[Plympton91]

I really appreciate the posts laying out the cost progression of the young core over the next 5 years.

Remember that you have to add to the total cost of those players over 2020-22, $77 million for Sale, Price, and Eovaldi, $20 million for JD Martinez (barring opt out) and $13 million for Pedroia in 2020-2021.

They absolutely have to keep Chavis at 2B and also have a jackpot on one of the other internal options for 1B (Ockimey actually ended up with an OPS very similar to Dalbec). Filling those two positions with high quality and near minimum salary is the only way they’re going to be able to make a deal for Mookie work within a roster that remains competitive.

 

[IpswichSox]

According to @redsoxpayroll, we have $49.8 million available to spend in 2020 that's under the first luxury tax, assuming no Martinez opt-out. That's the good news. The bad news is Mookie's ~$27 million final year of arbitration needs to be deducted from that, as well as the arbs for JBJ (who's making $8.6 million now), Rodriguez ($4.3 million now), and several guys in the bullpen, including Workman. Other increases, like for Benitendi and Devers, will be small but will add up.

There's also $15 million in benefits and ~$8 million for call-ups, bonuses and the 40-man roster.

Then there's a bunch of questions:

* Do we let Leon walk? If not he's arb-eligible for probably $3 million or more.
* We lose Porcello's $21 million, but how do we replace his his 180 IP?
* Do we let Brock Holt go as a free agent? He's making $3.6 million now, and could double his salary on a multiyear deal somewhere else.
* Assuming Cashner's 2020 deal at $10 million doesn't vest, do you let him go as a free agent? Or do we think there's something there in the bullpen?

Point is, if Mookie isn't traded and JD doesn't opt-out, we're virtually at the first luxury tax without addressing a host of needs:

* Porcello's replacement.
* Someone like Holt to back up Chavis/Lin at 2B.
* Someone like Moreland to backup Travis/Chavis/Vazquez at 1B.
* And the bullpen (can we really have 26 blown saves this year and not address the closer situation for 2020?).

There's just not a lot of financial flexibility. And Henry has said the second luxury tax isn't what's keeping him from spending. It's their budget, which he said they've exceeded ("It's a question of how much money do we want to lose. We're already over budget and we were substantially over our budget last year and this year," Henry said in July).

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

I’m probably reading this wrong, but do you mean that the most you expect is that Mookie would sign a one-year extension for 2021? Or just that he’d agree to arbitration terms for 2020?

Re the foundation, I wonder how much it’d take to extend Devers, and whether Acuña’s 8-year, $100 million deal could be some sort of benchmark even though Devers is a couple years further along his service time.

Mookie and JDM are clearly the first dominos, but I think there’ll be some shakeups this winter. Bogaerts, Devers, Sale, Price, EdRod, Casas, Taylor and probably Darwinzon all seem safe to me, but Chavis, Benintendi, Bradley, Dalbec, Duran, Barnes and Workman are all candidates to be moved, some more than others.

I mean he signs a one-year deal for 2020. He's not going to sign anything long term until at least November 2020. That's not a reason to trade him and it's not a reason to believe he's not re-signing with the Red Sox long term. It means he is not going to rob himself of the chance to at least see what he's worth on the free agent market.

Mookie Betts is not a player you let walk away at age 27 because you don't want to pay him what he's worth on the open market. I have faith that the owner and the GM of this team understand that. If they lose him, it won't be because they drew a line in the sand and wouldn't cross it.

 

[joe dokes]

* And the bullpen (can we really have 26 blown saves this year and not address the closer situation for 2020?).

Oakland also has 27 blown saves, the Dodgers 24, and the NYY 23.

 

[BaseballJones]

I really appreciate the posts laying out the cost progression of the young core over the next 5 years.

Remember that you have to add to the total cost of those players over 2020-22, $77 million for Sale, Price, and Eovaldi, $20 million for JD Martinez (barring opt out) and $13 million for Pedroia in 2020-2021.

They absolutely have to keep Chavis at 2B and also have a jackpot on one of the other internal options for 1B (Ockimey actually ended up with an OPS very similar to Dalbec). Filling those two positions with high quality and near minimum salary is the only way they’re going to be able to make a deal for Mookie work within a roster that remains competitive.

I agree on the 1b piece. This year, with one of the best offenses in all of MLB, here's where the Sox ranked in 1b production:

20th in HR (23)
16th in RBI (83)
23rd in AVG (.240)
26th in OBP (.306)
22nd in SLG (.429)
23rd in OPS (.735)

They should be able to do as well or better with Dalbec at 1b next year, for a fraction of the cost of what they've paid Pearce/Moreland (Pearce, of course, has contributed nothing this year; but hey, WS MVP in 2018 so I'll take it). That saved money ought to be freed up to pay Mookie. Chavis needs to stay at 2b. Marco should stay with the big league club as a versatile utility guy. That's several more dirt-cheap position guys who are actually helpful.

Ideally, I'd trade JBJ (though I like him a lot) for a decent prospect (probably won't get more than a "decent" prospect) and try to add a defense-first young CF. If he doesn't hit, oh well...there's lots of offense in the lineup anyway and probably can handle a black hole in CF.

Having low-cost players at C, 1b, 2b, 3b, LF, and CF should enable them to pay Betts, keep JD, and add some pitching help.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

Oakland also has 27 blown saves, the Dodgers 24, and the NYY 23.

Wait, don't all those teams have, whaddaya call'em....closers? (BTW, the A's have 28 blown saves this year)

The NL leaders in blown saves are the Nationals (27), Mets (25), Padres (24) and Cubs (23). All of them have traditional closers as well. In fact the Padres' closer leads the majors in saves.

Having a closer isn't a magical cure all for preventing blown leads. I think they should absolutely try to improve the talent in the bullpen where they can. That doesn't mean signing or trading for someone to be the "CLOSER".

 

[Lose Remerswaal]

It's as if the more leads a team gets, the more saves they end up blowing!

So an easy way to solve that problem . . .

 

[Sandy Leon Trotsky]

At this point, I think it's highly likely JDM will opt in (ideally, I'd just like the Sox to offer him a 4/$80M deal and just keep him as an overpaid DH).... who in their right mind would play him (and pay him) as an outfielder in the NL, and who has an opening at DH in the AL (that also has more than $15M to spend at that spot...)?
I just can't see the Sox trading Betts as it's going to be through him that they put together another chance at a deep playoff run, at the risk of getting nothing but a draft pick back if he signs elsewhere. Chavis and Travis at 1B, Holt/Chavis/Hernandez at 2B....seems like a good and low cost options there. IMO the bullpen is fine. Don't need to tinker with it. Don't need to tinker with the offense.

Starting pitching, more than anything else, was a mess this year and looks to be going forward. And I have no idea how to fix it.

Sale (fragile and not looking like he's a true ace when he's not injured)
Price (can't pitch more than 5 innings... also injury prone- although for shorter periods than Sale- but also simply not an ace anymore)
EdRo (still frustrating and likely who he is is who he is- can't go deep into games... looks great then has too many garbage outings to be counted on as anything more than a "no. 3" in a playoff caliber rotation. He does seem to have possibly turned the injury corner and should be counted to at least stay healthy for 180 IP.
Eovaldi (beyond fragile.... just shouldn't even be counted on)
??? (Porcello leaving (no way the Sox will offer him a one year) will only hurt having a guy who can be counted on to start every fifth day... but lately that 5th day has been absolutely crap)

At base improvement, the Sox need to replace Porcello with someone who can improve on his '2019. Good gawd it shouldn't be hard... but neither Johnson nor Velazquez nor Cashner seem to be that person, and I don't think anyone in the minors can be counted on to be a full time rotation member at this point. So somehow some money is going to be spent here (on whom????) but I don't think the Sox want to (or can) drop another $30M per year and it doesn't look like there's a realistic trade to bring someone in that's young and cost controlled.
They also need to think of Eovaldi and Sale as a combo 6th starter and replace them in the rotation too. Work is seriously cut out for DD here and I have absolutely no idea at all what to do.

 

[Byrdbrain]

I agree on the 1b piece. This year, with one of the best offenses in all of MLB, here's where the Sox ranked in 1b production:

20th in HR (23)
16th in RBI (83)
23rd in AVG (.240)
26th in OBP (.306)
22nd in SLG (.429)
23rd in OPS (.735)

They should be able to do as well or better with Dalbec at 1b next year, for a fraction of the cost of what they've paid Pearce/Moreland (Pearce, of course, has contributed nothing this year; but hey, WS MVP in 2018 so I'll take it). That saved money ought to be freed up to pay Mookie. Chavis needs to stay at 2b. Marco should stay with the big league club as a versatile utility guy. That's several more dirt-cheap position guys who are actually helpful.

Ideally, I'd trade JBJ (though I like him a lot) for a decent prospect (probably won't get more than a "decent" prospect) and try to add a defense-first young CF. If he doesn't hit, oh well...there's lots of offense in the lineup anyway and probably can handle a black hole in CF.

Having low-cost players at C, 1b, 2b, 3b, LF, and CF should enable them to pay Betts, keep JD, and add some pitching help.

I don't think it can be assumed that Dalbec will meet even that modest stat line. I hope he does and I think he may be given the chance to but it certainly isn't a sure thing.
I can't see them tendering JBJ and then being able to trade him for anything. It is possible they tender him but if so he'll have no trade value and he'll play for the Sox. It's also very possible they don't tender him a contract, at that point they may try to re-sign him.

 

[joe dokes]

At this point, I think it's highly likely JDM will opt in (ideally, I'd just like the Sox to offer him a 4/$80M deal and just keep him as an overpaid DH).... who in their right mind would play him (and pay him) as an outfielder in the NL, and who has an opening at DH in the AL (that also has more than $15M to spend at that spot...)?
I just can't see the Sox trading Betts as it's going to be through him that they put together another chance at a deep playoff run, at the risk of getting nothing but a draft pick back if he signs elsewhere. Chavis and Travis at 1B, Holt/Chavis/Hernandez at 2B....seems like a good and low cost options there. IMO the bullpen is fine. Don't need to tinker with it. Don't need to tinker with the offense.

Starting pitching, more than anything else, was a mess this year and looks to be going forward. And I have no idea how to fix it.

Sale (fragile and not looking like he's a true ace when he's not injured)
Price (can't pitch more than 5 innings... also injury prone- although for shorter periods than Sale- but also simply not an ace anymore)
EdRo (still frustrating and likely who he is is who he is- can't go deep into games... looks great then has too many garbage outings to be counted on as anything more than a "no. 3" in a playoff caliber rotation. He does seem to have possibly turned the injury corner and should be counted to at least stay healthy for 180 IP.
Eovaldi (beyond fragile.... just shouldn't even be counted on)
??? (Porcello leaving (no way the Sox will offer him a one year) will only hurt having a guy who can be counted on to start every fifth day... but lately that 5th day has been absolutely crap)

At base improvement, the Sox need to replace Porcello with someone who can improve on his '2019. Good gawd it shouldn't be hard... but neither Johnson nor Velazquez nor Cashner seem to be that person, and I don't think anyone in the minors can be counted on to be a full time rotation member at this point. So somehow some money is going to be spent here (on whom????) but I don't think the Sox want to (or can) drop another $30M per year and it doesn't look like there's a realistic trade to bring someone in that's young and cost controlled.
They also need to think of Eovaldi and Sale as a combo 6th starter and replace them in the rotation too. Work is seriously cut out for DD here and I have absolutely no idea at all what to do.

I think you're shorting Rodriguez. He's 10th in the AL in IP; 5 innings behind Morton (who has started one more game) in 6th. So while it may be true that he "can't go deep," it's only in relation to Verlander, Cole and a couple of others. he's also top 15 in ERA and top 10 for pitchers WAR (Bref).

 

[YTF]

Since we're discussion the foundation of the team for next season, let me pose a question. There are a few here that advocate trading Betts to free up some cash as well as to hopefully add a couple of young, cost controlled studs. I'm not sure I fall into that camp, but I am curious as to who folks thinks would make an ideal trade partner and what would one reasonably expect for a full season of Betts before his walk year? I wonder about the Mets and if they might make Jeff McNeil available. Though he's already 27, I see him as a Pedrioa type and he's not FA eligible until 2025. There would likely need to be other considerations, but might an infield of a locked down Bogaerts along with cost controlled McNeil, Chavis (one at third, the other at second) and Devers at first be something of interest? It leaves a hole in the outfield, but with the offense already available there can probably be a good hitting defender to be had at a decent price given the recent FA market for non superstars. Again, I don't know that I advocate moving Betts, but the Mets went all in on their pitching, have some good young players and considering the division they are in as well as the fact that BVW, might be looking to make another splash to atone for last year's debacle, maybe something between the two teams would be doable. Feel free to light me up, but if you do suggest something else that you think would be doable IF you think Mookie should be moved.

 

[carnie207]

So I've thought more about the outfield and I think trading Bradley might be a strong option, as much, as I love him as a player. It does depend on what JBJ gets in arbitration though. If he gets more than Castillo I would try and move him for some pitching and bring up Castillo. I think worst case is he's a similar hitter to JBJ with a decent glove and a good arm. Maybe in that case Mookie takes CF and Castillo mans right. And we do have some guys like Duran and Jimenez in the pipeline.
Now, even though he's not really an outfielder I'd keep Martinez around, especially if we could get him for 3 more years. IMO he'll conitinue to be very good for that long. And he seems to be very good at working with the other hitters.
The pitching staff is an entirely different story. We're spending way too much money on pitchers who aren't doing the job they're being paid to do. So IMO we need a radical reinvention of the pitching staff. I'll need to look at the numbers before I have any real ideas, but how about this for a start? Make Chris Sale the closer.

 

[jon abbey]

I think worst case is he's a similar hitter to JBJ with a decent glove and a good arm.

No, the worst case is he's worse both offensively and defensively than JBJ, and in fact that is extremely likely.

Would Rusney even be on anyone's 40 man if he was the same player but a US draftee? Looking at this year's International League, Mason Williams maybe seems like the best comp. He was a 2010 4th round pick by NY and always a fantastic athlete, a consensus top 50 MLB prospect in 2013 (BA #32, MLB #41, BP #51) and is 28 to Rusney's 31. He fizzled out in NY, couldn't stay healthy and didn't impress the rare times he did, he has been released by NY and CIN and played all three OF positions this season for Norfolk, BAL's AAA team. He has always has the rep of a good defensive CF and his OPS this year in the IL was .848 (442 ABs) to Rusney's .769 (460 ABs). Despite this, Williams didn't get called up by the horrible Orioles until this week, so it's not just Rusney's contract holding him down (although that would be enough).

I don't mean to divert the thread, but Rusney is as much a part of the 'foundation for next year' like the Yankees used to build around Kei Igawa. That is slightly overstating the case, Igawa was absolutely unusable but neither was ever coming back to the bigs after a year or two. Talking about him as a possible option going forward makes zero sense for both contractual and performance reasons.

 

[Red(s)HawksFan]

So I've thought more about the outfield and I think trading Bradley might be a strong option, as much, as I love him as a player. It does depend on what JBJ gets in arbitration though. If he gets more than Castillo I would try and move him for some pitching and bring up Castillo. I think worst case is he's a similar hitter to JBJ with a decent glove and a good arm. Maybe in that case Mookie takes CF and Castillo mans right. And we do have some guys like Duran and Jimenez in the pipeline.
Now, even though he's not really an outfielder I'd keep Martinez around, especially if we could get him for 3 more years. IMO he'll conitinue to be very good for that long. And he seems to be very good at working with the other hitters.
The pitching staff is an entirely different story. We're spending way too much money on pitchers who aren't doing the job they're being paid to do. So IMO we need a radical reinvention of the pitching staff. I'll need to look at the numbers before I have any real ideas, but how about this for a start? Make Chris Sale the closer.

Yeesh. Best case scenario is that Castillo is similar to JBJ at the plate and moderately close to him in the field. No way do I trade JBJ out for Castillo, I don't care what JBJ's salary ends up being. Even if you want to be rosily optimistic about Castillo's prospects, wouldn't that potential be more valuable than JBJ in terms of a trade? The receiving team would get one year of him at his ~$11M salary plus control of him for 5 more years. If his floor is JBJ (it isn't, but you are saying it is), seems like he would yield a better return than JBJ.

And Sale as closer? Not going to happen. A) They're not going to make anyone the closer and B) even if they did, they're not paying their closer $30M a year. If Sale's healthy enough to pitch, he's in the rotation. Period.

 

[Yelling At Clouds]

I am thinking they'll just get one 3/4-type starter, maybe one or two Brewer-type signings for the pen, a backup C, and call it an offseason. Unless something unforeseen happens, of course.

 

[Bob Montgomerys Helmet Hat]

I am thinking they'll just get one 3/4-type starter, maybe one or two Brewer-type signings for the pen, a backup C, and call it an offseason. Unless something unforeseen happens, of course.

Their biggest decision might end up being what to do with Holt.

 

[E5 Yaz]

Their biggest decision might end up being what to do with Holt.

Unless they want to give JD a 5/125 extension so he doesn't opt out

 

[Byrdbrain]

So I've thought more about the outfield and I think trading Bradley might be a strong option, as much, as I love him as a player. It does depend on what JBJ gets in arbitration though. If he gets more than Castillo I would try and move him for some pitching and bring up Castillo. I think worst case is he's a similar hitter to JBJ with a decent glove and a good arm. Maybe in that case Mookie takes CF and Castillo mans right. And we do have some guys like Duran and Jimenez in the pipeline.
Now, even though he's not really an outfielder I'd keep Martinez around, especially if we could get him for 3 more years. IMO he'll conitinue to be very good for that long. And he seems to be very good at working with the other hitters.
The pitching staff is an entirely different story. We're spending way too much money on pitchers who aren't doing the job they're being paid to do. So IMO we need a radical reinvention of the pitching staff. I'll need to look at the numbers before I have any real ideas, but how about this for a start? Make Chris Sale the closer.

I didn’t think your first post was very good but I figured you were new and the concept was fine so I just chimed in on the silly Rusney stuff.

Now you double down on that silliness, mention the Sox should keep JDM(he has the opt out), and throw in that Sale should close.

We really don’t need to hear any more thoughts.

 

[chawson]

I agree on the 1b piece. This year, with one of the best offenses in all of MLB, here's where the Sox ranked in 1b production:

20th in HR (23)
16th in RBI (83)
23rd in AVG (.240)
26th in OBP (.306)
22nd in SLG (.429)
23rd in OPS (.735)

They should be able to do as well or better with Dalbec at 1b next year, for a fraction of the cost of what they've paid Pearce/Moreland (Pearce, of course, has contributed nothing this year; but hey, WS MVP in 2018 so I'll take it). That saved money ought to be freed up to pay Mookie. Chavis needs to stay at 2b.

I don’t know if I buy it. When was the last time the Sox handed a job out of spring training to a prospect with no major league plate appearances?

I think the Sox sign Justin Smoak to something like a 2-year, $16 million contract as a bridge to Casas. Smoak’s not great, but he’s better than Moreland and had an absurdly bad luck year with a .227 BABIP (partially due to getting shifted on). He’d also free up a roster spot, since as a switch hitter we wouldn’t need to platoon him with Travis or Pearce, neither of whom really need to return.

 

[Plympton91]

Yeesh. Best case scenario is that Castillo is similar to JBJ at the plate and moderately close to him in the field. No way do I trade JBJ out for Castillo, I don't care what JBJ's salary ends up being. Even if you want to be rosily optimistic about Castillo's prospects, wouldn't that potential be more valuable than JBJ in terms of a trade? The receiving team would get one year of him at his ~$11M salary plus control of him for 5 more years. If his floor is JBJ (it isn't, but you are saying it is), seems like he would yield a better return than JBJ.

And Sale as closer? Not going to happen. A) They're not going to make anyone the closer and B) even if they did, they're not paying their closer $30M a year. If Sale's healthy enough to pitch, he's in the rotation. Period.

It’s not really 5 years of control, because if you tender a contract to Rusney, the maximum you can cut his salary is 20%. And his salary this year is $14 million ($11 is the AAV of the contract) So you’d still be paying $11 million for a replacement level outfielder. Thus, to get him for the low salary he’d be worth, you’d have to DFA him and try to resign him as a free agent.

 

[geoduck no quahog]

I’d love to hear more discussion about the value of Martinez versus Betts. The Martinez I’ve seen sure looks like a franchise hitter (I’m leaving defense out of it). I kind of think he’s on a very team-friendly salary right now and am hoping that’s addressed with a new contract that takes care of the opt outs.

Which leaves cost and performance projections for Betts and how his negotiation plays with payroll construction, which is being discussed here at a high level.

The thing that’s factoring in my mind is that JDM looks like a mechanic that’s going to age well as a predictably impactful hitter. He should probably be paid for that.

A long term Bogaerts - Devers - Martinez trio sounds devastating. Can the Red Sox add the magic Betts ingredient to that?

 

[chrisfont9]

I’d love to hear more discussion about the value of Martinez versus Betts. The Martinez I’ve seen sure looks like a franchise hitter (I’m leaving defense out of it). I kind of think he’s on a very team-friendly salary right now and am hoping that’s addressed with a new contract that takes care of the opt outs.

Which leaves cost and performance projections for Betts and how his negotiation plays with payroll construction, which is being discussed here at a high level.

The thing that’s factoring in my mind is that JDM looks like a mechanic that’s going to age well as a predictably impactful hitter. He should probably be paid for that.

There is no single statistic that says JDM is more valuable than Mookie unless you want to focus on home run totals. I too think JD looks like a guy who will age well for a while, possibly 7-8 years' worth, but Mookie is just entering his prime and has been completely durable and reliable. Obviously if you add in the defense and baserunning, it's no comparison. This makes it important for the Sox to not take the bait and overpay JD for his narrower (but very respectable) contributions. Mookie is going to command something like 10/$350 anyway.

 

[johnnywayback]

* Porcello's replacement.
* Someone like Holt to back up Chavis/Lin at 2B.
* Someone like Moreland to backup Travis/Chavis/Vazquez at 1B.
* And the bullpen (can we really have 26 blown saves this year and not address the closer situation for 2020?).

Marco Hernandez is the guy you're thinking of for 2B. Ideally, they'd re-sign Holt, but I imagine he'll get overpaid somewhere to start full-time.

I don't think they will or should waste money on a closer. The bullpen, as has been extensively documented, is already a lot better than people are giving it credit for, and adding a full season of Hernandez and possibly Houck to Workman's breakout, Barnes's steady above-average performance, and the wide variety of okay 6th/7th inning guys (Hembree, Taylor, etc.) means it should be a strength next year even if they add no one, let alone a "closer."

If there weren't the question marks about Sale's health, I would even be fine going without a Porcello replacement. Is a full season of Brian Johnson really that much worse than what Porcello's given us this year? Realistically, the only way you're going to sign an impact starter is if Betts is traded or Martinez leaves, and if it's the latter, you still have to sign someone to fill the hole in the middle of the order. I imagine they'll find someone off the scrap heap towards the end of the winter, though, if only because we'll need depth.

Same for 1B: Moreland, Thames, Smoak, Bour...someone's going to be ready to take a very cheap deal come January. And even before that, you have Travis at 1B and Chavis at 2B against lefties and Chavis at 1B and Hernandez/Lin at 2B against righties. Could be a lot worse.

 

[RedOctober3829]

Marco Hernandez is the guy you're thinking of for 2B. Ideally, they'd re-sign Holt, but I imagine he'll get overpaid somewhere to start full-time.

I don't think they will or should waste money on a closer. The bullpen, as has been extensively documented, is already a lot better than people are giving it credit for, and adding a full season of Hernandez and possibly Houck to Workman's breakout, Barnes's steady above-average performance, and the wide variety of okay 6th/7th inning guys (Hembree, Taylor, etc.) means it should be a strength next year even if they add no one, let alone a "closer."

If there weren't the question marks about Sale's health, I would even be fine going without a Porcello replacement. Is a full season of Brian Johnson really that much worse than what Porcello's given us this year? Realistically, the only way you're going to sign an impact starter is if Betts is traded or Martinez leaves, and if it's the latter, you still have to sign someone to fill the hole in the middle of the order. I imagine they'll find someone off the scrap heap towards the end of the winter, though, if only because we'll need depth.

Same for 1B: Moreland, Thames, Smoak, Bour...someone's going to be ready to take a very cheap deal come January. And even before that, you have Travis at 1B and Chavis at 2B against lefties and Chavis at 1B and Hernandez/Lin at 2B against righties. Could be a lot worse.

I would really, really hope that their solution to the pen is to bring the same people back and hope for improved results. They need to bring in 1 or 2 proven arms that have shown consistency rather than relying on what they did this year which is hope that flashes in the pan repeat their performances this year. Houck was moved back to being a starter. They'll also need a starter to replace Porcello that is much better than Brian Johnson. As bad as Porcello has been(86 ERA+), Johnson has been worse(73 ERA+). A contending team should not have Brian Johnson as their 5th starter.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

There is no single statistic that says JDM is more valuable than Mookie unless you want to focus on home run totals. I too think JD looks like a guy who will age well for a while, possibly 7-8 years' worth, but Mookie is just entering his prime and has been completely durable and reliable. Obviously if you add in the defense and baserunning, it's no comparison. This makes it important for the Sox to not take the bait and overpay JD for his narrower (but very respectable) contributions. Mookie is going to command something like 10/$350 anyway.

There is no way JDM is anywhere near as valuable as Mookie. Mookie is five years younger, is nearly as good a hitter, and adds significant value on the bases and on defense, which JDM does not. There's a reason why Mookie has half again as much WAR (conservatively) in about 3/4 the playing time. It's like comparing Edgar Martinez with Ken Griffey Jr., or (going way back) Willie McCovey with Willie Mays.

 

[chawson]

Marco Hernandez is the guy you're thinking of for 2B. Ideally, they'd re-sign Holt, but I imagine he'll get overpaid somewhere to start full-time.

I don't think they will or should waste money on a closer. The bullpen, as has been extensively documented, is already a lot better than people are giving it credit for, and adding a full season of Hernandez and possibly Houck to Workman's breakout, Barnes's steady above-average performance, and the wide variety of okay 6th/7th inning guys (Hembree, Taylor, etc.) means it should be a strength next year even if they add no one, let alone a "closer."

If there weren't the question marks about Sale's health, I would even be fine going without a Porcello replacement. Is a full season of Brian Johnson really that much worse than what Porcello's given us this year? Realistically, the only way you're going to sign an impact starter is if Betts is traded or Martinez leaves, and if it's the latter, you still have to sign someone to fill the hole in the middle of the order. I imagine they'll find someone off the scrap heap towards the end of the winter, though, if only because we'll need depth.

Same for 1B: Moreland, Thames, Smoak, Bour...someone's going to be ready to take a very cheap deal come January. And even before that, you have Travis at 1B and Chavis at 2B against lefties and Chavis at 1B and Hernandez/Lin at 2B against righties. Could be a lot worse.

“Could be a lot worse” is a pretty depressing mantra heading into Mookie Betts’ last arb year.

Marco Hernandez has been absurdly lucky this year. His expected wOBA is .269, which is a hair above Nuñez. I think he’s kept around, but he’s not a great candidate to be next year’s Holt.

Re your first base options, I can’t imagine Thames’ 6.5m option isn’t picked up, and Bour is probably looking at a minor league deal for an NL team.

The obscene glut of prospects the Padres have are gonna face a Rule V crunch. I’d be interested in liberating one of their top flight pitching prospects along with Wil Myers, who’s as good a bet as any available to play first base the next couple years while Casas gets ready. He’s a terrible contract at 3/$67m, but if Luis Patiño or Chris Paddack come with him, it’s worth it.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

They'll also need a starter to replace Porcello that is much better than Brian Johnson. As bad as Porcello has been(86 ERA+), Johnson has been worse(73 ERA+). A contending team should not have Brian Johnson as their 5th starter.

I agree with this, and also, this year there's a plethora of viable (though not necessarily exciting) starting pitchers hitting FA. It should be a relative buyer's market, and seems like the logical place for DD to concentrate on the FA side of things this winter.

 

[Patek's 3 Dingers]

I’d love to hear more discussion about the value of Martinez versus Betts. The Martinez I’ve seen sure looks like a franchise hitter (I’m leaving defense out of it). I kind of think he’s on a very team-friendly salary right now and am hoping that’s addressed with a new contract that takes care of the opt outs.

Which leaves cost and performance projections for Betts and how his negotiation plays with payroll construction, which is being discussed here at a high level.

The thing that’s factoring in my mind is that JDM looks like a mechanic that’s going to age well as a predictably impactful hitter. He should probably be paid for that.

A long term Bogaerts - Devers - Martinez trio sounds devastating. Can the Red Sox add the magic Betts ingredient to that?

I've never heard of a player being described as a "mechanic". Jim Rice dropped off quite a bit by his early 30's so I guess he wasn't one.

I doubt if JD can beat 3/60. Does he have to opt-out to test the market?

 

[sean1562]

considering that offense really isnt this team's problem, if JDM opts out, I think we have to let him walk.

 

[Byrdbrain]

I've never heard of a player being described as a "mechanic". Jim Rice dropped off quite a bit by his early 30's so I guess he wasn't one.

I doubt if JD can beat 3/60. Does he have to opt-out to test the market?

Officially, yes.
Unofficially you can be sure his agent will be making a bunch of calls to test the waters and see what kind of deal he can expect.

I don’t think he opts out but I wouldn’t be surprised either way.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

Officially, yes.
Unofficially you can be sure his agent will be making a bunch of calls to test the waters and see what kind of deal he can expect.

Would that be kosher? I would assume that negotiations (whatever you call them, that's what they'd be) regarding a player under contract to another team would be off limits until he actually opts out.

 

[Plympton91]

There is no way JDM is anywhere near as valuable as Mookie. Mookie is five years younger, is nearly as good a hitter, and adds significant value on the bases and on defense, which JDM does not. There's a reason why Mookie has half again as much WAR (conservatively) in about 3/4 the playing time. It's like comparing Edgar Martinez with Ken Griffey Jr., or (going way back) Willie McCovey with Willie Mays.

What if Betts costs $36 million a year for 12 years and Martinez costs $22 million a year for 4 years?

You have to treat $240 million as a salary cap. That means it’s not Betts or Martinez. It’s Betts for 12/$400 or Martinez for 4/$88 and Hamels for 3/$42

Maybe we pivot to the San Francisco Giants ‘12/‘14 or Red Sox ‘13 model in the next few years as the market inefficiency becomes 30- to 34-year-old veterans who are still productive but getting squeezed by the trendy younger players.

 

[Savin Hillbilly]

What if Betts costs $36 million a year for 12 years and Martinez costs $22 million a year for 4 years?

Wait, this is an argument against the idea that Betts is the more valuable of the two?