Ahh yes. The AFL hype train. They said the same about Devin Marrero. If any insiders are making that decision based off 4 games, they aren't very astute at all.
How about a bet as to Chatham's success with the Boston Red Sox in 2020?
I saw him a bunch in Portland too and came away thinking utility infielder unless he adds some power to his game. He's also played 3 games at 2b in the AFL and has made 2 errors. Errors aren't everything but I doubt he's wowed scouts with his glove during that time.
So the "astute baseball insiders" you referenced earlier were you and those sitting around you at Sea Dogs games?
Wilson is enticing, but his K rates scare the daylights out of me. If he's striking out 35 percent of the time in double-A, what's major league pitching gonna do to him?
Yeah, the K rate is his one weakness, and it's a huge weakness. He's a 5 tool player though, so if he can make enough contact at the MLB level, he'll be able to provide value in all facets of the game. With a little luck, he's what we wanted Blake Swihart to be. A league average hitter at a premium position, with Marcus having the added benefit of being a better defender. It would be pretty ironic if we ended up getting a decent player for Blake Swihart after all, just way after the fact.
There’s an article on MLB.com with running game summaries. One of them notes that Mata is throwing 97-99 out of the bullpen.
Makes all the sense in the world to make him a fair offer and buy out a few years of free agency. However, in light of the news yesterday that they're hoping to get under the luxury tax threshold, it is also a bit contradictory. An extension only makes him more expensive, which only makes it harder to shrink the overall payroll. It's not as though he's going anywhere if they don't do the extension, perhaps it would be prudent to wait another year.
It’s hard to say the Yankees would have been better with the healthy roster. It’s possible, sure, but they played out of their minds with the replacements. Who knows what would have happened.
I think it's more than a decade. AFAICT the most recent Sox draftee who has had any kind of success as a starting pitcher in the majors is Justin Masterson (2006). The year before that, Buchholz, and then three years before that, Lester. But that seems to be it for the 21st century so far. Three guys, none for 13 years. Am I missing somebody?
Felix Doubront.
Yeah, I was looking specifically at the draft. But even if you include Doubront -- and he's borderline from the "success" as well as the "draft" perspective -- that's four guys in 20 years. Not four #1s, just four starters who established themselves in a rotation somewhere for at least a couple of years. It's possible Kopech, Beeks, Logan Allen, or somebody still in the system like Groome could eventually achieve enough to fill out that list, but it still seems like a pretty meager harvest. What are we doing wrong that other teams are doing right?
We reach and draft "interesting" guys that scouts are mixed on like Trey Ball and Henry Owens. Injuries haven't helped either. I also remember an article from awhile back with Theo on the Cubs saying something like there's always pitching to be signed on the FA market, so develop positional players because they are more predictable. I wouldn't be shocked if there's a lot of TINSTAPP in the Sox front office.
The trouble with this philosophy -- as we're seeing now -- is that pitchers remain more unpredictable than position players (at least as to their health) even after they are established. And unpredictability can do a lot more damage when you're paying $20-30M a year for it.
Owens was a frustrating case to me. If you’re including Dubrount, you could almost have him in the same class. Owens blew through the minors and had 2 months with the Sox in 2015 that would have been half a decade of perfectly good “cheap 5th starter” innings.
I doubt Owens soft toss game would have aged very well once opposing teams got film on his tendencies.
He said any kind of success. He didn't say a successful career. Doubront's 2013 was decent. There's also a difference between pitching 160 innings for 2 years in a row and Brian Johnson who has all of 115 innings as a starter over 4 seasons.
Bradford used Alex Bregman as a comparison. The Astros first renewed Bregman's 2019 contract for $640,500 before announcing the extension a week later, which included a $10 million signing bonus. The new deal takes effect starting in 2020, so the bonus can be spread out over the length of the contract, correct?
Wait, so Devers could get the bonus immediately yet it wouldn't count toward the AAV till 2021? How is that kosher?
Is it because the extension wouldn't kick in until after the 2020 season?
I think Bradley is gone either way - can't afford him if they keep Betts and Martinez, and if those two are gone and they're rebuilding then why bother overpaying for his glove?
Benintendi can play center. Not as well as JBJ, but well enough to get by with. I'd be surprised if their strategy was to trade JBJ and then try to replace him with a CF. It's a lot easier to find corner outfielders.
Counterargument, he can barely play left field even with Fenway being his home park
If both JD and Betts are gone, does it really matter if there's a huge hole in CF? May as well try Benny in CF during a rebuilding season and see what you got.
Have the so-called “advanced” defensive context-dependent counting “stats” figured out how to adjust for Fenway’s left field yet?
What's your evidence for this proposition? His defensive stats in LF took a bit of a hit this year, but they were still more or less average, and that's a one-year blip. Overall, his numbers have been above average, and since he only just turned 25, he shouldn't be declining sharply for a few years yet. His career UZR/150 in CF is -3.4. He'd be a CF like Xander is a SS: we'd benefit from a better one, but the difference wouldn't bite us often or hard enough to worry about. And his good-not-great offense would play much better there.
Yes, statcast accounts for the wall in their outs above average which he is one of the the worst outfielders in baseball. the other metrics are based on stringers watching every play so that accounts for the wall now as well. for whatever reason benintinedi's speed has been getting worse every year.
Ok, but Betts has stayed between the 73rd and 76th percent in statcast speed the last 4 years while Benintendi has gone from 89th to 55th.
