Franchy Cordero recalled to the major league team

cannonball 1729

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View: https://twitter.com/dakern74/status/1528488462579548160

Franchy Cordero: Third walkoff grand slam in Red Sox history against the Mariners. First in extra innings. Others were both in 1998, by Nomar Garciaparra (Sep 2) and Mo Vaughn (Apr 10).
And the Mo Vaughn slam
View: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lD5ZY5G8KLM
Oh man - I remember that Mo one! That was Heathcliff Slocumb's return after he was shipped to Seattle for Lowe and Varitek. It was so nice to get to root against Slocumb for a change because him because he was really, really good at making the opposing team win baseball games. I remember he started off that ninth inning and was pulled long before the inning ended - BR tells me that he didn't get anyone out. Then the rest of the inning happened.

It was also the home opener and Good Friday, so there was all this bizarre chatter on local radio from (Catholic) people who wanted the Pope to say it was cool for people attending the home opener to skip the "fish on Friday" rule and eat a hot dog. Unsurprisingly, the Pope...did not do that.
 

Philip Jeff Frye

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It was also the home opener and Good Friday, so there was all this bizarre chatter on local radio from (Catholic) people who wanted the Pope to say it was cool for people attending the home opener to skip the "fish on Friday" rule and eat a hot dog. Unsurprisingly, the Pope...did not do that.
There was also some idiotic stink about the Bosox serving beer on Good Friday. This apparently was some terrible heresy in some people's eyes.
 

Jimbodandy

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He put the ball in play 5 times today, the softest hit ball was 95.6 exit velo, and he ended up 1/5. His triple on Saturday was 111 mph, and his pinch hit single Friday was 106. He's absolutely killing the ball, which isn't abnormal, but when it comes with much better K and BB %s it's going to lead to great results.
Yeah, his ABs were awesome today. He had a couple of outs that were fantastic plate appearances that just ended up as rockets in gloves, long before the bomb.

His plate discipline has been great to watch.
 
Yeah, his ABs were awesome today. He had a couple of outs that were fantastic plate appearances that just ended up as rockets in gloves, long before the bomb.

His plate discipline has been great to watch.
Earlier in the season it was looking like Franchy was trading quality of contact for more walks and fewer Ks, but since then his statcast data has driven back up toward his career norms in terms of quality of contact. If he keeps this up he could really break out in a serious way.
 

Harry Hooper

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McAdam quotes Cora lauding Franchy:

"He's been disciplined with fastball up,'' said Cora, "which is very important. He got rid of that toe-tap, trying to make contact. When he swings, he swings. Last year, I think he was thinking, 'I have to make contact, I can't strikeout,' and it worked against him because he was actually swinging and missing. And when he did make contract, it was weak contract. He's been great, driving the ball to center. Now that he's confident, we're probably going to see him hitting the ball in the air a little more and the power is going to play. He's a very smart baserunner and he's made an impact.''
 

Yo La Tengo

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Can someone remind me of the mechanics of how the Sox moved Franchy from the 40 man roster last October? Did they give him a raise to make it less likely that another team would be interested? I feel like there was some effort taken to avoid losing him and staying on good terms.
 

Smiling Joe Hesketh

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Can someone remind me of the mechanics of how the Sox moved Franchy from the 40 man roster last October? Did they give him a raise to make it less likely that another team would be interested? I feel like there was some effort taken to avoid losing him and staying on good terms.
I think that's right. He was DFA'd on October 21, but then re-signed with the club on October 25. They purchased is contract and re-added him to the 40 man when he was called up this year.
 

Red(s)HawksFan

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Can someone remind me of the mechanics of how the Sox moved Franchy from the 40 man roster last October? Did they give him a raise to make it less likely that another team would be interested? I feel like there was some effort taken to avoid losing him and staying on good terms.
They signed him to a 2022 contract that was a modest salary increase ($800K to $825K) just before designating him for assignment. It's possible that locking him into a contract made him less appealing for teams to claim on waivers, but it was also after the season so a team claiming him could only have been doing so with an eye toward 2022.

I think the contract was more about incentive to stay in the organization because once he cleared waivers, he could have opted for free agency which would have negated the contract. He chose to accept the assignment to the minors and stick around, much to his and the team's benefit (so far).
 

bosox188

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I just hope the improved plate discipline isn't some short-lived thing at the MLB level. He actually hasn't drawn a walk since May 14th, the date of that tweet. And his AAA walk rate this year (12.2%) is basically the same as it was in AAA last year (12.5%). In fact the AAA K rates are both 28% between this year and last year as well. So there's nothing in the numbers to suggest that he's made some drastic change, aside from the small sample of MLB at bats so far this year. The eye test might tell a better story at the moment, so I'm cautiously optimistic.
 

Heating up in the bullpen

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I just hope the improved plate discipline isn't some short-lived thing at the MLB level. He actually hasn't drawn a walk since May 14th, the date of that tweet. And his AAA walk rate this year (12.2%) is basically the same as it was in AAA last year (12.5%). In fact the AAA K rates are both 28% between this year and last year as well. So there's nothing in the numbers to suggest that he's made some drastic change, aside from the small sample of MLB at bats so far this year. The eye test might tell a better story at the moment, so I'm cautiously optimistic.
Re: walk rate. It could be as simple as when he came up pitchers thought they could get him to chase. He didn’t, and they walked him. So pitchers adjusted to throwing strikes, so he swung more.
 

burstnbloom

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I just hope the improved plate discipline isn't some short-lived thing at the MLB level. He actually hasn't drawn a walk since May 14th, the date of that tweet. And his AAA walk rate this year (12.2%) is basically the same as it was in AAA last year (12.5%). In fact the AAA K rates are both 28% between this year and last year as well. So there's nothing in the numbers to suggest that he's made some drastic change, aside from the small sample of MLB at bats so far this year. The eye test might tell a better story at the moment, so I'm cautiously optimistic.
I don't think its realistic to expect an 18% walk rate going forward. That's elite plate discipline. Franchy has never been that. If he can walk 10% of the time and keep his K% lower than 30% with his batted ball profile, he's going to be a very serviceable player for this team. It's all small sample stuff but his xBA is .47 higher than his actual BA, his xSLG is .162. He's always hit the ball hard but his swing in miss is what will determine what kind of player he can be. Last year his o-swing% was 36.9, this year its 26.8%. He's making a lot more contact because he's swinging in the zone at a higher rate. It's 50 PA but its encouraging.
 

chawson

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Yo La Tengo

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Franchy is putting together a pretty good looking line of .282/.346/.479 over 81 plate appearances. The underlying numbers look even better.
 

ledsox

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He is one extra base hit behind Beni this year in 110 fewer plate appearances.
 

ngruz25

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I haven't been able to watch most of the West Coast swing, but it looks like Franchy has cooled off significantly. Since homering in Oakland, he's gone 0-18 with 8 strikeouts and no balls hit over 100 mph. His pretty awful June has brought his season OPS to .661, in line with his career OPS of .663. His OPS+ stands at 83 for 2022 and his bWAR at... 0.0.

Is it just a slump, are pitchers adjusting to Franchy's newfound plate discipline, or is Franchy regressing?
 

moondog80

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Still way too early to tell, but when you factor in Josh Winckowski, this trade turning into a win for Bloom is very much in play.
 

Ganthem

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Any idea why the results haven't matched up with the stats? Are there similar players in MLB history who have had identical stats as Franchy and didn't make it? Or is the fact that he has the ability to hit the ball hard as well as the other stats an indicator that his slash line will eventually be what is expected?
 

Cesar Crespo

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Any idea why the results haven't matched up with the stats? Are there similar players in MLB history who have had identical stats as Franchy and didn't make it? Or is the fact that he has the ability to hit the ball hard as well as the other stats an indicator that his slash line will eventually be what is expected?
I don't know, but he has 21k in 65 PA in June, for a 32.3% K%. He has 7bb (10.8% BB%) in that time too, which is totally acceptable but the ks are not. He was also hit by a pitch and has 1 HR. So in the last month, 30 of his 68 PA, he didn't put the ball in play.

He had 20k in 87 PA up until June, a 23.0% K rate. 8bb (9.2% BB%).

To date, he has 603 PA in the majors and 202 ks, a 33.5% K%. 53bb (8.5% BB%).

Long winded way of saying, it's probably all the strike outs. I would guess going forward, his K rate will be closer to what it is June than what it was in May... though 600 PA scattered across 6 seasons can definitely skew things.
 

chawson

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Any idea why the results haven't matched up with the stats? Are there similar players in MLB history who have had identical stats as Franchy and didn't make it? Or is the fact that he has the ability to hit the ball hard as well as the other stats an indicator that his slash line will eventually be what is expected?
This is an interesting question. Turns out you don't have to go very far back in history. Here's Cordero and six other 2022 hitters who are underperforming their expected stats this year (per FanGraphs, excluding today's games).

Player A: .227/.288 BA/xBA, .428/.573 SLG/xSLG, 11.1 Barrel%, 44.2 HardHit%, 9.0 BB%, 18.1 K%, 35.3 O-swing%, .313 wOBA, .387 expected wOBA (-.74 wOBA)
Player B: .224/.283 BA/xBA, .373/.526 SLG/xSLG, 11.6 Barrel%, 53.7 HardHit%, 9.9 BB%, 27.0 K%, 27.3 O-swing%, .298 wOBA, .374 expected wOBA (-.76 wOBA)
Player C: .244/.272 BA/xBA, .378/.468 SLG/xSLG, 10.7 Barrel%, 49.5 HardHit%, 11.3 BB%, 24.6 K%, 23.8 O-swing%, .316 wOBA, .354 expected wOBA (-.38 wOBA)
Player D: .239/.303 BA/xBA, .394/.524 SLG/xSLG, 8.4 Barrel%, 43.6 HardHit%, 13.1 BB%, 14.7 K%, 26.1 O-swing%, .329 wOBA, .394 expected wOBA (-.65 wOBA)
Player E: .251/.287 BA/xBA, .373/.498 SLG/xSLG, 6.6 Barrel%, 40.2 HardHit%, 5.8 BB%, 10.9 K%, 31.6 O-swing%, .289 wOBA, .344 expected wOBA (-.55 wOBA)
Player F: .230/.264 BA/xBA, .383/.478 SLG/xSLG, 10.7 Barrel%, 43.6 HardHit%, 11.9 BB%, 25.9 K%, 32.3 O-swing%, .314 wOBA, .356 expected wOBA (-.42 wOBA)
Player G: .245/.278 BA/xBA, .389/.507 SLG/xSLG, 10.4 Barrel%, 38.0 HardHit%, 12.8 BB%, 22.0 K%, 29.2 O-swing%, .325 wOBA, .376 expected wOBA (-.51 wOBA)

Player A is Corey Seager
Player B is Franchy Cordero
Player C is Christian Yelich
Player D is Max Kepler
Player E is Alex Verdugo
Player F is Josh Donaldson
Player G is Jorge Polanco

These names are among Franchy's closest comps on a player similarity table available here if people wanna play with it. There's some small differences here and there, no one's a perfect comp, but Seager and Yelich are both pretty close in those core metrics (walks, barrels). Donaldson is one that I didn't expect to see so close. Verdugo has been similarly penalized (both he and Cordero have hit several balls that would have been home runs in other parks), but they're fairly different players and Verdugo takes much fewer pitches.

It's already been well documented how hard he hits the ball. But the stats that have me most optimistic about Cordero right now are the following:

1) His chase rate (O-swing): Among 269 qualified hitters, Cordero ranks 57th-best in laying off pitches out of the zone. That helps a lot, because he's terrible at making contact with pitches out of the zone (261st of 269).
2) His Launch Angle/Ground Ball rate: Cordero had struggled some with getting the ball in the air, putting up aa 47.6% career GB rate coming into this year. Not this year. In 2022, that GB rate is down to 38.3. (League average is 42.9%).
3) His pop-up rate: Despite that decrease in ground balls, he hasn't hit an infield fly all year.

Finally, that 53.7% HardHit rate is juicy as hell. Here are the sum total of players who have higher hard hit rates this year: J.D. Davis, Aaron Judge, Yordan Alvarez, Jose Abreu, Joc Pederson, Franmil Reyes, Vladimir Guerrero Jr., Austin Riley, Giancarlo Stanton and Rafael Devers. That's it.
 

Ganthem

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Crespo and Chawson thank you. I am now more optimistic that we are going to be happy witg Franchy's slash line at the end of the year.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Since the start of June, Verdugo has done this (not counting last night): .333/.400/.467/.867, with 6 2b, 2 hr, 16 runs, and 15 rbi. Pretty solid. He's really lengthened the lineup.
Start of Season-May 18th: .206/.245/.313, .207 BAbip
May 19th to Now: .321/.375/.471, .342 BAbip
YTD: .266/.312/.395, .276 BAbip

Career: .285/.341/.435, .315 BAbip.

Considering his K% and BB% are at career lows, his BAbip returning to average should be pretty beneficial.

OPS+ is now at 96. It gives the Sox 6 players close to average or better in the lineup. They also have Refsnyder, Duran and Cordero eating a lot of at bats at plus production, and production at position of need.