Free Agents aren't free, then again nothing for nothing

In my lifetime

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I realize we have other threads, but with 3 significant names off the board and the continued countdown for a RS move, I figured a free agent thread was appropriate (and the fact that no one likes mega-threads).

I’d read this. It covers most of the concerns: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/the-2018-free-agent-landmines/

Excerpted: “For the bulk of Hosmer’s career, he’s been a slightly above-average hitter while playing a position where hitting is the primary job description.”
As usual a well done fangraphs article with a conclusion that makes sense:
Homer at 4 years for 80MM is reasonable. Anything more than 20 MM/year ---> no thank you. Hosmer better fits a positional need for the RS (even if not a great defensive 1B)

Compared to JD Martinez: https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/j-d-martinez-is-worth-the-price/
If the conclusion is Martinez 5 years at 110MM is considered a deal for the club, so let's say 5 years at 120MM (24MM/year) is a reasonable signing.

What makes the negotiating interesting and complicated is that they are both represented by the same agent. It is difficult to go to Boras and tell him 1st one to accept the "RS value" offer gets the contract, which could certainly be done if both players had different representation. At this point with the RS' farm system depleted, the Yankee moves, the RS are clearly target #1 for Boras and conversely it is logical that these 2 free agents are target #1 and 2 for the RS. In the end, I think the RS need one of them and I would be on board either at the above (or close to the above) "reasonable" contracts. And much happier with either free agent signing than trading JBJ for a similar player presumably at a 20-30 MM savings over 4 yrs.
 

TomBrunansky23

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Is Hosmer that much of an upgrade over Moreland that it screams out for a 4 or 5 year commitment north of $20mm per? When healthy last year Moreland was fairly productive and he's arguably an equal defender to Hosmer. Wouldn't it make more sense to bring Moreland back on another 1 year deal at somewhere relative to what he made last year?
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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Is Hosmer that much of an upgrade over Moreland that it screams out for a 4 or 5 year commitment north of $20mm per?
Mitch Moreland was good in the first half: 267/353/466 and dreadful during the second half of 2017: 231/296/440. To break it out by month:

July: 145/264/171
August: 342/390/671 (not bad)
September: 190/260/407

Hosmer over the year:

First half: 318/374/492
Second half: 319/397/504

I'd say that Hosmer was significantly better than Moreland last year.
 

grimshaw

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Is Hosmer that much of an upgrade over Moreland that it screams out for a 4 or 5 year commitment north of $20mm per? When healthy last year Moreland was fairly productive and he's arguably an equal defender to Hosmer. Wouldn't it make more sense to bring Moreland back on another 1 year deal at somewhere relative to what he made last year?
He's way worse defensively than Moreland over the last three years (and before).
http://www.fangraphs.com/leaders.aspx?pos=1b&stats=bat&lg=all&qual=y&type=8&season=2017&month=0&season1=2015&ind=0&team=0&rost=0&age=0&filter=&players=0&sort=20,d&page=2_50
So ya, huge waste of money IMO.

If I'm spending a lot of money on a 1b, I want him to either be upper tier offense, or a really good all around player who isn't completely limited to first.
 

BigSoxFan

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Mitch Moreland was good in the first half: 267/353/466 and dreadful during the second half of 2017: 231/296/440. To break it out by month:

July: 145/264/171
August: 342/390/671 (not bad)
September: 190/260/407

Hosmer over the year:

First half: 318/374/492
Second half: 319/397/504

I'd say that Hosmer was significantly better than Moreland last year.
Wasn’t Moreland playing hurt for a good portion of the summer?
 

nvalvo

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Mitch Moreland was good in the first half: 267/353/466 and dreadful during the second half of 2017: 231/296/440. To break it out by month:

July: 145/264/171
August: 342/390/671 (not bad)
September: 190/260/407

Hosmer over the year:

First half: 318/374/492
Second half: 319/397/504

I'd say that Hosmer was significantly better than Moreland last year.
First half: 318/374/492, .352 BABIP
Second half: 319/397/504, .349 BABIP

Hosmer's career BABIP is .316. We just saw a well-timed career year from him.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Maybe, IDK. If that's the case, he probably shouldn't have been getting ABs.

Edit: if he was hurt, how much do you think he'd improve?
He got hit on the foot by a pitch and hurt his toe mid June and had to sit out for a bit. Pretty much coincided with his drop. With Hanley also hurting, I’m not sure who should have been getting ABs. Travis?

I’m not sure anyone is saying he’s better than Hosmer at the plate (he certainly is in the field), but if the difference is something like 2/$15 and 6/$150, yeah I’ll take Moreland, even without factoring I that Hosmer probably just had a proverbial ‘contract’ year.
 

nvalvo

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He got hit on the foot by a pitch and hurt his toe mid June and had to sit out for a bit. Pretty much coincided with his drop. With Hanley also hurting, I’m not sure who should have been getting ABs. Travis?
Yes, Travis. This is precisely what a 40 man roster is for. He likely would have played around replacement level, but that's a standard Moreland's month of .400 OPS didn't approach. And maybe Moreland would have healed up a bit faster on the DL.
 

Hank Scorpio

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Does Hosmer have any credible claim to all the Gold Gloves he's won? From reading the posts here, he sounds like a terrible defender, but doesn't seem to have the name power of a Jeter or Palmeiro to have GGs handed to him by default.
 

TomBrunansky23

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I’m not sure anyone is saying he’s better than Hosmer at the plate (he certainly is in the field), but if the difference is something like 2/$15 and 6/$150, yeah I’ll take Moreland, even without factoring I that Hosmer probably just had a proverbial ‘contract’ year."
I am certainly not taking the position that bringing back Moreland is a move made in a vacuum, but when I see speculation out there that DD is after BOTH Hosmer and JDM that doesn't make sense to me. I can see the need for JDM, but why handcuff yourself for the next 4-5 years with Hosmer when you can have similar (not the same) production from Moreland for 1/3 the price. Consider also that bring in Hosmer for next 4-5 years limits the positional flexibility available for Chavis, Devers or Travis.
 

pinkunicornsox

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Yes, Travis. This is precisely what a 40 man roster is for. He likely would have played around replacement level, but that's a standard Moreland's month of .400 OPS didn't approach. And maybe Moreland would have healed up a bit faster on the DL.
That is true and you can probably apply that to Hanley as well. That being said the team can't force a player onto the DL.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Yes, Travis. This is precisely what a 40 man roster is for. He likely would have played around replacement level, but that's a standard Moreland's month of .400 OPS didn't approach. And maybe Moreland would have healed up a bit faster on the DL.
Why is that ‘likely’? He managed to produce -.4 WAR in the 33 games they did give him.

Edit : which is not disagreeing they should have sat him. I just don’t think they had a reliable solution without making a trade. Which is all beside the point anyways.
 

tims4wins

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Maybe, IDK. If that's the case, he probably shouldn't have been getting ABs.

Edit: if he was hurt, how much do you think he'd improve?
Moreland from game 1 through June 13 (toe injury): .285 avg / .382 obp / .495 slg / .877 OPS
June 15 through July 29 (roughly six weeks): .149 / .226 / .231 / .458
July 30 through end of season: .266 / .326 / .526 / .852

This is obviously cherry picked but I like him back on a short small contract way better than a long term Hosmer deal. Hosmer is Panda 2 except he is obviously in far better shape and won't decline nearly as much.
 

sackamano

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Hosmer is Panda 2 except he is obviously in far better shape and won't decline nearly as much.
How did you miss the fist pumps and extreme high-fives Hosmer gave during the Royals World Series run? I mean, those combined with that look he gave to the camera? Come on.

Seriously, I'd take him at 5-100 and worry about finding spots for Chavis, Travis and whomever else, if and when they force themselves onto the ML lineup.
 

MikeM

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Does Hosmer have any credible claim to all the Gold Gloves he's won? From reading the posts here, he sounds like a terrible defender, but doesn't seem to have the name power of a Jeter or Palmeiro to have GGs handed to him by default.
Cameron did a good breakdown on the MLB channel concerning this the other day, in which he essentially pointed the finger at reputation. Basically concluding that the selective value in what Hosmer does do "better" defensively (scoops, arm, ect), and gets a lot of credit for, doesn't factor in with nearly enough frequency to make up for a complete full time lack of range.

Unlike JDM, who we are going to have to get splurge'y on, I honestly think the best after strategy there for DD if he really likes Hosmer as well is to simply do nothing and wait him out. I'm not sold this supposed massive interest coming out of SD amounts to anything more then Heyman fueled rumor, and with JDM already in hand we then wouldn't really be pressed to do anything. Some of those lesser free agents are going to struggle to even find starting gigs this winter, and beyond the min/max crowd wanting that "perfect" paper offseason it's not like our championship chances come crashing down around us in the event we were forced to settle latter on a Lucas Duda. Or even a Adams/Lind/Moreland for that matter. If that means you potentially miss out on Santana or Morrison multi year deals while you wait, then so be it.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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If 5/$100 were anything close to being reasonable, then there would be more of an argument. I don’t think anyone expects him to clock in that low and in fact likely will blow that out of the water.
 

John Marzano Olympic Hero

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July 30 through end of season: .266 / .326 / .526 / .852
Moreland had a nice August but was pretty terrible in September.

BTW, I completely forgot about his fractured toe. I can not believe the Red Sox FO let him gut it out. In retrospect, that was an absolutely stupid decision.

He got hit on the foot by a pitch and hurt his toe mid June and had to sit out for a bit. Pretty much coincided with his drop. With Hanley also hurting, I’m not sure who should have been getting ABs. Travis?
Nvalvo answered this prior, but yes, Travis would have been a much better replacement for Moreland.
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Moreland had a nice August but was pretty terrible in September.

BTW, I completely forgot about his fractured toe. I can not believe the Red Sox FO let him gut it out. In retrospect, that was an absolutely stupid decision.



Nvalvo answered this prior, but yes, Travis would have been a much better replacement for Moreland.
I absolutely agree they should have sat him, I’m just not sure Travis would have provided a whole lot more. I didn’t see much that impressed me and Moreland went one mediocre month, one really good month and one shitty month. I think the best to hope for out of Travis was three mediocre months, so it’s really a matter of preference I guess if you compare it to a player being steady vs streaky.

All that being said, it’s really about Moreland vs Hosmer. If you give him a little credit for the broken toe, I think the expected contract difference becomes more stark, both in length and aav.

Hosmer just strikes me as a Crawford/Lackey/Pablo type signing, in that they fill a need and are ‘the best available’ so they are willing to overpay to fill a hole, plus the QO comes into play to cost them more when they need to be restocking the farm. Especially in tandem with JDM, who will be another overpay for power (similar to Hanley was as tag team with Pablo), I’d rather they didn’t.
 

chawson

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Especially when Moreland, Alonso, Duda, and Frazier don't cost a pick.

The Sox have the 23rd or 24th draft pick next year, which is valued at roughly $20-21M (considering $8M a win, pro rating these estimations).

So you could make an argument that there’s an even wider gap between the cost of a Hosmer deal (5/$125M + $20M=$145M) vs. a Moreland deal (1/$8M).
 
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PapaSox

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This may be coming at the problem from a different perspective. Trade for Greinke (Pomeranz & Kelly - Est. $12 million) as it's a salary dump on their part with a drop out from the JDM hunt. Trade Hanley at a discount (Eat $12 million - including money for vesting) to KC and drop out of Hosmer race. Sign Moustakas to DH/3B/1B and move Devers to 1B/3B/DH.
 

sackamano

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Why would KC want Hanley Ramirez?

I don't understand the Greinke math. Are you suggesting the Red Sox take on all the salary AND give up Pomeranz and Kelly? Pomeranz may be a better starter than Greinke at this point.
 

PapaSox

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Why would KC want Hanley Ramirez?

I don't understand the Greinke math. Are you suggesting the Red Sox take on all the salary AND give up Pomeranz and Kelly? Pomeranz may be a better starter than Greinke at this point.
KC has little or no offense ... Hanley would provide some ... the key is to drop out of the Hosmer race which may hand him over to KC ... Sort of a Machiavellian move.

Yes take on Greinke salary - trade Pomeranz & Kelly to unload $12 million - drop out of JDM race - Sort of a Machiavellian move.

I disagree as to Pomeranz being better than Grienke but don't wish to go off into 10 - 12 message argument so let's just agree to disagree.
 

chawson

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KC has little or no offense ... Hanley would provide some ... the key is to drop out of the Hosmer race which may hand him over to KC ... Sort of a Machiavellian move.

Yes take on Greinke salary - trade Pomeranz & Kelly to unload $12 million - drop out of JDM race - Sort of a Machiavellian move.

I disagree as to Pomeranz being better than Grienke but don't wish to go off into 10 - 12 message argument so let's just agree to disagree.
Can you provide an example you recall of a rebuilding team doing something like this? Trading for an old, expensive, oft-injured hitter in the hopes of winning 78 games instead of 75?
 

scottyno

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KC has little or no offense ... Hanley would provide some ... the key is to drop out of the Hosmer race which may hand him over to KC ... Sort of a Machiavellian move.
Hanley was 95 ops+ last year, he wasn't even worth the $10m the Royals would be paying him. If he provides actual offense then the Sox would be much better off keeping him than paying half his contract and paying Moustakas
 

Sampo Gida

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I am not liking this market much. I dont care for Hosmer even at 6/150 and after seeing JDM spray charts am not comfortable with him either at 6/150+, especially if he wants to play the field.

In 2013 we had went after guys who were coming off down years and hoping for rebounds. That worked, maybe luck or genius or some combination. To that end maybe go for Bautista at DH and Hanley at 1B and cross fingers. If it goes south fix it at the trade deadline

I mean do we really want to win with a payroll more than 40 million over the Yankees and having to sit on the sidelines in one of the great FA markets of all time?

Maybe if we restrain ourselves, and a lot of guys bounce back, Price has a great year and opts out, etc we can win another championship and be in on someone like Harper next year
 

PapaSox

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Can you provide an example you recall of a rebuilding team doing something like this? Trading for an old, expensive, oft-injured hitter in the hopes of winning 78 games instead of 75?
The closes I can come is Pudge in 2004 with Detroit. He was not injury prone but was expensive. He was still one of the best catchers but his hitting was in decline. If Hanley plays like 2016 KC would most definitely gain. I think Detroit was trying to win 60 games. The main jest of the trade is to trade Hanley and drop out of Hosmer run. This takes the wind out of Boris sails and KC has to compete with Padres. I think KC gets Hosmer back.
 

PapaSox

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Hanley was 95 ops+ last year, he wasn't even worth the $10m the Royals would be paying him. If he provides actual offense then the Sox would be much better off keeping him than paying half his contract and paying Moustakas
To be honest if Hanley comes back to something like his 2016 performance the Sox would most definitely gain from a deal with Moustakas and going with Devers at 1B.
 

PapaSox

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The Tigers signed Pudge in 2004, didn't trade for him in 2004.
Correct. Its not like I'm saying KC gives us anything really in return. To be honest I think Ben signing Panda and Hanley may be a more recent similarity. And, yes again these were FA he went out and signed.
 

Green (Tongued) Monster

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To be honest if Hanley comes back to something like his 2016 performance the Sox would most definitely gain from a deal with Moustakas and going with Devers at 1B.
Are you trolling? This makes no sense. The Sox would be better off with signing Moose and switching Devers position than having a 2016 Hanley?

And you also want to trade Pomeranz, who was awesome last season, for the right to pay Greinke $35 million a year for his age 34-37 seasons? How do you expect anyone to take you seriously with this nonsense?
 

sean1562

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Are you trolling? This makes no sense. The Sox would be better off with signing Moose and switching Devers position than having a 2016 Hanley?

And you also want to trade Pomeranz, who was awesome last season, for the right to pay Greinke $35 million a year for his age 34-37 seasons? How do you expect anyone to take you seriously with this nonsense?
Does this post really add that much more to the discussion than the one you are deriding? Is any of the bolded really necessary?
 

Green (Tongued) Monster

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Does this post really add that much more to the discussion than the one you are deriding? Is any of the bolded really necessary?
Only a little bit more than yours.

I am sick of seeing ideas posted in these forums that have zero thought put into them and make absolutely no sense. I don't think it to be out of line to call out bullshit and ask for an explanation. How does anything papa sox suggested help the Red Sox?

Bottom line: Do better. Put some thought and reasoning behind your post or keep it to yourself.
 

PapaSox

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Only a little bit more than yours.

I am sick of seeing ideas posted in these forums that have zero thought put into them and make absolutely no sense. I don't think it to be out of line to call out bullshit and ask for an explanation. How does anything papa sox suggested help the Red Sox?

Bottom line: Do better. Put some thought and reasoning behind your post or keep it to yourself.
Sorry to have got you all "hot and bothered". It's nothing more than a simple suggestion/idea/thought. No more, no less. It's a thread about baseball. Baseball is suppose to be a game. It's fun. As a thread about baseball there should be some fun in it. It's a place for fans of the game to come and have some fun. Sure there are some real "Wild and crazy" ideas and people expect to be somewhat flamed. But, it's fun to discuss and see what others think. I find some of this stuff simple "insane" but I also find some great insight that I did not see before. There are different things we all find on the board that drive us "Bat shit crazy". It's part of the discussion. You breeze over it and let it go. I find us still talking about Stanton to "make absolutely no sense" but it is what it is. We are all welcome to out opinions but sometimes we don't have the need to speak them out loud. Let's keep the conversation fun.

Let's try to have some fun. And, please let us know what your thoughts are on this off season.
 
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smallball

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I am certainly not taking the position that bringing back Moreland is a move made in a vacuum, but when I see speculation out there that DD is after BOTH Hosmer and JDM that doesn't make sense to me. I can see the need for JDM, but why handcuff yourself for the next 4-5 years with Hosmer when you can have similar (not the same) production from Moreland for 1/3 the price. Consider also that bring in Hosmer for next 4-5 years limits the positional flexibility available for Chavis, Devers or Travis.
I agree with you about Moreland. The FO has been all too in a rush to bring in the next big thing without realizing what they've already got: just look at the revolving door at third base, first base, ss.

I disagree with the notion of "positional flexibility." What we've seen trying to move guys around the diamond is guys getting injured or losing their timing at the plate. Roster gridlock would be alleviated if the FO actually signed players to play a position and not just occupy a spot in a hypothetical batting order.

The willingness to trade away our center fielder with the hope that everyone can sort of slide over is a case in point.
 

sean1562

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It seems like DD has told Boras what he sees as reasonable prices for them both, and whenever they get down to that ballpark, to give him a call. DD is the kind of guy who drops 210 mil on former cy young award winner David price, and trades the farm for Chris sale and Craig Kimbrel. I don’t think he is the type of GM to drop 200+ on a DH or a younger version of Mitch Moreland. so we hear all these “the sox will need to pay a premium if they want JD to DH” and “hosmer on verge of signing with padres” stories to try and get him to budge. JD and Eric’s biggest problem is that everyone knows who they are and what they are worth. I would be surprised if anyone gets duped into an absurd deal for them, hence the really active trade market
 

scottyno

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To be honest if Hanley comes back to something like his 2016 performance the Sox would most definitely gain from a deal with Moustakas and going with Devers at 1B.
They'd be paying probably close to $30m next year for Moustakas at 3b plus Devers at 1b (when you include the Hanley subsidy) vs about $23m for Hanley at 1b/dh plus Devers at 3b. Hanley was a 3 win player in 2016, Moustakas was a 2 win player last year. Either Devers or Hanley would have to be really really bad defensively for the Sox to gain from that exchange.
 

E5 Yaz

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Sorry to have got you all "hot and bothered". It's nothing more than a simple suggestion/idea/thought. No more, no less. It's a thread about baseball. Baseball is suppose to be a game. It's fun. As a thread about baseball there should be some fun in it. It's a place for fans of the game to come and have some fun. Sure there are some real "Wild and crazy" ideas and people expect to be somewhat flamed. But, it's fun to discuss and see what others think. I find some of this stuff simple "insane" but I also find some great insight that I did not see before. There are different things we all find on the board that drive us "Bat shit crazy". It's part of the discussion. You breeze over it and let it go. I find us still talking about Stanton to "make absolutely no sense" but it is what it is. We are all welcome to out opinions but sometimes we don't have the need to speak them out loud. Let's keep the conversation fun.

Let's try to have some fun.
I'm pretty sure it's worded exactly that way in the SoSH Unwritten Rule Book
 

PapaSox

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I'm pretty sure it's worded exactly that way in the SoSH Unwritten Rule Book
I think you mean "SoSH Unwritten Rule Book."

It seems as if the rule books where Don't Suck was rule #1 all got lost in the oil spill.

EDIT--"oil spill"
You guys are right. I went a tad over board and let my thoughts outpace my logic. I broke Rule #1 and I stand here beside myself wondering who was that man. My apologies. Green Tongue Monster you were right by calling me out.
 

In my lifetime

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So with the low risk deal for Moreland done, at least DD has avoided a Hosmer/Boras overpay and kept RS options open. The RS can choose to spend big on JD Martinez if the price isn't stratospheric or wait until the winter of 2018 to attempt a big free agent splash. The positive side effect to a JDM signing is that Hanley's contract may legitimately not vest with another DH bat added to the mix. I think the best option with Hanley may be to ride his year out and if he earns the vesting with what would be a surprisingly good year, then great or if he is mediocre or hurt, then the result would be 2018 savings of 22MM. A salary dump isn't much of a savings if the RS have to subsidize 17MM or so to move him.
 

Savin Hillbilly

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The wrong side of the bridge....
So with the low risk deal for Moreland done, at least DD has avoided a Hosmer/Boras overpay and kept RS options open. The RS can choose to spend big on JD Martinez if the price isn't stratospheric or wait until the winter of 2018 to attempt a big free agent splash. The positive side effect to a JDM signing is that Hanley's contract may legitimately not vest with another DH bat added to the mix. I think the best option with Hanley may be to ride his year out and if he earns the vesting with what would be a surprisingly good year, then great or if he is mediocre or hurt, then the result would be 2018 savings of 22MM. A salary dump isn't much of a savings if the RS have to subsidize 17MM or so to move him.
This is a bit Machiavellian, but true and not irrelevant. If signing JDM effectively relieves the Sox from their 2019 Hanley contract obligation--and there's a pretty good chance it would--that effectively lops $22M off JDM's contract price. It's almost like getting a year free.
 

chawson

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This is a bit Machiavellian, but true and not irrelevant. If signing JDM effectively relieves the Sox from their 2019 Hanley contract obligation--and there's a pretty good chance it would--that effectively lops $22M off JDM's contract price. It's almost like getting a year free.
I still don't know why the Sox would burn the roster spot with Travis and Brentz on the team, who are at least as likely to mash lefties as Hanley and offer defensive value while doing it.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

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I still don't know why the Sox would burn the roster spot with Travis and Brentz on the team, who are at least as likely to mash lefties as Hanley and offer defensive value while doing it.
I doubt they'd DFA him, and I'm sure they'd be happy to move him to another team even if they have to pay the majority of the freight. But if they can't find a taker, even at 50% of his contract or less, then he'll be the short side of a platoon whether he likes it or not. And honestly, that would probably offer the most bang for their buck with the lineup next year.