Game 7 Confidence Level

[BigSoxFan]

Probably my biggest frustration with last night is that the Celtics were chasing the Heat basically the entire game. Largest lead was 4 at 46-42 and they closed the half very poorly. Got a 3 point lead with 4+ mins to go and they once again closed very poorly. Game 4 against Bucks was the only game last 2 rounds where they closed out a tough opponent.

They’re certainly capable of it but I remain concerned about this team’s ability to close out tight games.

On the flip side, I generally like this team’s focus better on the road. Game 7 truly is a toss up and it largely depends on which Celtics team shows up.

 

[RorschachsMask]

10/10

 

[SemperFidelisSox]

My biggest concern is the Heat role players getting that extra boost at home, or someone unexpected on Miami pulling a Leon Powe.

 

[BigSoxFan]

My biggest concern is the Heat role players getting that extra boost at home, or someone unexpected on Miami pulling a Leon Powe.

I think you can live with that. If the Celtics go down, I want some scrub to have a big role in it. Can’t just have death by a thousand Butler cuts again.

 

[Auger34]

I'm serious.

My point wasn't that the Heat should beat the Celtics. It was simply pointing out the absurdity of completely discounting them.

The Cs are the better team. ALOT went wrong for them and right for the Heat, and the Cs still had the lead with a few minutes left.

They'll make adjustments, both teams will start with jitters, and the cream will slowly rise to the top throughout the game.

We're going to the finals.

That ending was quite a swerve and reveal! I feel like I just watched the ending of The Usual Suspects again for the first time

 

[Auger34]

My biggest concern is the Heat role players getting that extra boost at home, or someone unexpected on Miami pulling a Leon Powe.

One of the two biggest concerns has to be Strus doing what you described (or Gabe Vincent).
The other is the officials deciding to completely swallow the whistle and give the Heat some “home cooking”….

I am honestly at a 10/10 in confidence. This series has proven time and time again that the Celtics are the better team. The Celtics are a fucking resilient bunch who always get back up and take care of business when things look bleak. Truthfully, I would be a little surprised if the final score is within single digits

 

[Kenny F'ing Powers]

One of the two biggest concerns has to be Strus doing what you described (or Gabe Vincent).
The other is the officials deciding to completely swallow the whistle and give the Heat some “home cooking”….

I am honestly at a 10/10 in confidence. This series has proven time and time again that the Celtics are the better team. The Celtics are a fucking resilient bunch who always get back up and take care of business when things look bleak. Truthfully, I would be a little surprised if the final score is within single digits

We're the bigger, more athletic team. And, while the Heat are handsy, the Cs can certainly tighten up the D with the best of them. If the refs are going to let things go, the Cs size and defensive prowess would benefit more than a Heat team that relies on a flopping Lowry and Butler flying to the hoop while praying for a foul.

If the refs stay out of the way and both teams simply play around their standards, we're good.

 

[Helmet Head]

I am 50/50 at this point. Not really confident but think they absolutely have a good chance to win. One thing I will say is I think it’s likely going to be a tight game and Miami would 100% have the advantage in a close and late situation. With that said, Miami seemed like they shot 100% in high leverage situations last night. In no way shape and form is that sustainable. In short, I have 0 idea what’s going to happen but can’t wait to watch.

 

[128]

I am 50/50 at this point. Not really confident but think they absolutely have a good chance to win. One thing I will say is I think it’s likely going to be a tight game and Miami would 100% have the advantage in a close and late situation.

Yeah, Jimmy Butler's ability to get where he wants on the court and to get off a quality shot is superior to Tatum's or Brown's in those situations.

 

[Auger34]

Yeah, Jimmy Butler's ability to get where he wants on the court and to get off a quality shot is superior to Tatum's or Brown's in those situations.

You’re a very reasonable fan…how do you reconcile Game 6 for Jimmy vs 4 and 5? I honestly don’t think I’ve ever seen anything like it.

He basically didn’t get any criticism because he was so fucking bad in 4 and 5 that everyone assumed that his knee must have been fucked. Then he comes out and does that…I’m trying to think of what the reaction would be around here if Tatum did something like that and I really don’t know what it would be

 

[128]

You’re a very reasonable fan…how do you reconcile Game 6 for Jimmy vs 4 and 5? I honestly don’t think I’ve ever seen anything like it.

He basically didn’t get any criticism because he was so fucking bad in 4 and 5 that everyone assumed that his knee must have been fucked. Then he comes out and does that…I’m trying to think of what the reaction would be around here if Tatum did something like that and I really don’t know what it would be

No clue what was up with Butler. It's absolutely bizarre.

 

[yecul]

All outcomes are on the table. Overall I think the Cs are certainly better but Miami is a very strong team. A couple guys gimpy (or not), a couple guys hot (or cold), etc. either way and it's a blowout one way or the other or its a tight one. This is 50/50 as we have seen.

That said, I pick the Cs with modest confidence. I think they have a couple guys step up whereas the Heat play seems less likely to be replicated. Cs by... 7.

 

[timelysarcasm]

I chose confident but a little nervous.

After sleeping off the disappointment, I think we win game 7. Miami hit some absolute prayers yesterday, but I still believe we're the better team and this group is ready. Having had the pleasure of watching every game this season, resiliency is one of the hallmarks of this team. That and being really damn good. For whatever reason they play less tight on the road.

I can't imagine Horford having another bad game (and he's excused imo with the death of his abuelo), and I think this young team will get over the hump. I am sure Marcus's ankle is still smarting, but we really just need him to make the right decisions with the basketball.

 

[DGreenwood]

I think it’s a coin flip. The Celtics are the better team but that’s offset by the advantage Miami has of playing at home. The only outcome that would surprise me would be Miami winning a blowout.

 

[Eddie Jurak]

I'm going with the same keys as to yesterday' game for tomorrow. Don't turn it over, especially live ball. Get back on defense and cut down on Miami's transition opportunities. Box out in the defensive zone. If they can do those things, then they can win even if it is a rock fight of a game.

 

[Ed Hillel]

Naturally, I’m usually way more nervous when I think the team has a good shot of ultimately winning it all. Last week, I was convinced the Celtics were the best team in basketball and SHOULD win the title. I no longer think that, so really view this as a bit of house money, and I’ve enjoyed the past few games more than worrying about them.

I think they’ll win and then lose to GS in 5 or 6. If not, Miami will get trucked and the finals will suck. The Celtics could also win it all, and that would be awesome.

 

[djbayko]

We're the bigger, more athletic team. And, while the Heat are handsy, the Cs can certainly tighten up the D with the best of them. If the refs are going to let things go, the Cs size and defensive prowess would benefit more than a Heat team that relies on a flopping Lowry and Butler flying to the hoop while praying for a foul.

If the refs stay out of the way and both teams simply play around their standards, we're good.

Agree with this. I think a loosely-refed game is a big advantage for us. Also, with the number of shitty calls we've seen lately (both ways), I'd like the refs to have as little impact on the game as possible. Let them play, and let Lowry flop around the court like a beached salmon.

 

[Jakarta]

All 3 of Miami’s wins have come when they have been rested or coming off games where the starters have not had to play big minutes. And after the first 2 wins they have gotten blown out. I suspect that is not a coincidence. The style Miami needs to play to beat this Celtics team requires a lot of energy and it is hard for them to summon that energy twice in 3 days. I think game 7 will be closer than games 2 & 4, but feeling confident the younger Celtics will recover better from game 6 and have the energy needed to get a win.

 

[mauf]

If we were starting a fresh 7-game series tonight, I’d take the C’s. But I’d peg our odds of winning a single game in Miami at 50/50. I voted “other.”

 

[DourDoerr]

Confident but a little nervous here. One problem - I have zero idea which Celtics team is coming from quarter to quarter nevermind game to game. The short history of these playoffs suggest that we'll get a focused C's team that'll get the job done home court be damned. The status of MS and RW are major pieces to this puzzle though and if either is compromised, my confidence starts quivering further.

Not that a Game 7 requires much more motivation, but I can see the C's getting just a little extra oomph by rallying around Al over his grandpa and might get them a 1st Q burst. Al at the least should be locked in coming out. After that, they'll even out and they'll either play with pace and spread the ball around and win or they'll bog it down, go hero ball and we'll all gnash our nails below the quick. Pace is space. If we're down three on the last possession though, put me down for zero confidence then. It's astounding how poorly this team does at the end of any quarter. They either miss or make it a micro-second after the buzzer every time.

 

[m0ckduck]

I wonder if people would feel different if games 5 and 6 were swapped and C’s had just lost G5 in Miami but come back to win G6 at home. Let’s say the two games had unfolded in exactly the same way, but in reverse order, following the more conventional expectation of home court advantage.

As it stands, we should be feeling decent about the C’s chances of winning in Miami since they won the last two games played there. Plus, we get the 5-0 record after a loss working in our favor. I think recency bias is what has folks spooked— that we just saw Butler drop 47— but as others have said, it’s unlikely that he has that in him for back to back efforts. Not impossible, but unlikely.

As far as the idea that G7 favors the home team: I get it, I have the same anxiety. But since 2017, home teams are 9-9 in deciding game 7s.

I was ~55% Celtics when I started this post, but am up to 60-65% C’s after finishing it.

 

[Reverend]

 

[Royal Reader]

About 60% Cs. My instinct is that this is like the Bubble game six where, after Butler goes full Thanos to extend their season, the Heat fold like a cheap suit. But if it's at all close, I'm bricking it.