General NBA season thread: 24-25 edition

HomeRunBaker

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At least Franz has that max extension. Mo just has a team option for next year, which I assume Orlando picks up but still.
He was about to get PAID too.

In more sad news, watching Trayce Jackson-Davis dunking all over the Timberwolves only minutes after watching Jordan Walsh jog through garbage times is giving me agita.
 

LA_33

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Is there a scenario in which the NBA is really popular, but can't get big TV contracts because it's not consumed in that format?

I'm the exact target audience for a TV contracts: older millenial, significant disposable income that I spend on entertainment, really into the NBA....and I refuse to shell out for a cable or streaming package. I have League Pass, but I absolutely will wait 3 hours until a game is done to watch it on LP or via highlights.

I can only imagine what the consumption habits of zoomers are in this regard...
I strongly suspect that this new TV contract is the last time the NBA’s games broadcast rights contracts will be correctly described as “TV contracts”.

it seems like the NBA made a very careful flip in how they thought about game delivery with this negotiation, prioritizing and likely insisting on two things:

1. Starting next season when the new right deal starts, essentially every national game will be available to stream without needing a full cable-style TV provider to access them live.

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Disney has announced a stand-alone ESPN streaming subscription that will allow watching all of the “cable” broadcast content directly without also paying for non-ESPN channels, to launch right around when the 2025 NBA season starts. It might be expensive, but it will be much less than the cheapest option to watch live ESPN games now (SlingTV, YouTube or Hulu live TV, etc.)

Eveything broadcast by NBC will supposedly be in Peacock, and Prime is obviously stand-alone.

2. MANY more games available on free OTA channels, with more of Disney’s package on ABC compared to the current deal, and NBC adding significant freely available OTA games in additional nights.

That feels like both:
A) an acknowledgment that a big part of the NFL’s dominance is that everyone has been able watch most of the games on a free antennea for decades, because there are still significant numbers of households that don’t have cable, OR all of the streaming services (or even good broadband) AND

B) A way to combat the reality of piracy in a “games are all streaming” world, with two of the national rights holders shifting more of their thinking about monetizing their game rights to focus on ad sales (because the ads still broadcast on pirated streams).

The next time around, the NBA’s right seem likely to shift even further in those two directions, and we’ll be talking about “streaming rights” more than “TV rights” and live-broadcast ratings will stop being nearly as relevant (because the games WILL be available live, but will also be available on-demand more immediately, and consumed that way a LOT more by younger demos, likely via highlight/recap packages and condensed games, as much as full games, but those shorter formats offered on ESPN/Peacock/Prime/etc. might be monetized with ads, and are also viewership-track able, outside of Nielsen ratings…)

With an ongoing push to get NBA games in front of the broadest audiences (lowest-income households (seniors), free broadcast in bars, etc.) via OTA network TV.
 

lovegtm

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I strongly suspect that this new TV contract is the last time the NBA’s games broadcast rights contracts will be correctly described as “TV contracts”.

it seems like the NBA made a very careful flip in how they thought about game delivery with this negotiation, prioritizing and likely insisting on two things:

1. Starting next season when the new right deal starts, essentially every national game will be available to stream without needing a full cable-style TV provider to access them live.

I don’t think it’s a coincidence that Disney has announced a stand-alone ESPN streaming subscription that will allow watching all of the “cable” broadcast content directly without also paying for non-ESPN channels, to launch right around when the 2025 NBA season starts. It might be expensive, but it will be much less than the cheapest option to watch live ESPN games now (SlingTV, YouTube or Hulu live TV, etc.)

Eveything broadcast by NBC will supposedly be in Peacock, and Prime is obviously stand-alone.

2. MANY more games available on free OTA channels, with more of Disney’s package on ABC compared to the current deal, and NBC adding significant freely available OTA games in additional nights.

That feels like both:
A) an acknowledgment that a big part of the NFL’s dominance is that everyone has been able watch most of the games on a free antennea for decades, because there are still significant numbers of households that don’t have cable, OR all of the streaming services (or even good broadband) AND

B) A way to combat the reality of piracy in a “games are all streaming” world, with two of the national rights holders shifting more of their thinking about monetizing their game rights to focus on ad sales (because the ads still broadcast on pirated streams).

The next time around, the NBA’s right seem likely to shift even further in those two directions, and we’ll be talking about “streaming rights” more than “TV rights” and live-broadcast ratings will stop being nearly as relevant (because the games WILL be available live, but will also be available on-demand more immediately, and consumed that way a LOT more by younger demos, likely via highlight/recap packages and condensed games, as much as full games, but those shorter formats offered on ESPN/Peacock/Prime/etc. might be monetized with ads, and are also viewership-track able, outside of Nielsen ratings…)

With an ongoing push to get NBA games in front of the broadest audiences (lowest-income households (seniors), free broadcast in bars, etc.) via OTA network TV.
Interesting, I didn't realize that standalone NBA streaming packages were a big part of the new deal, makes a lot of sense in the context of the prior discussion!
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I just read the above and my brain nearly exploded. I don't doubt what WBCD is saying...but are we headed toward a world where AI creates leagues and various competitions, and the willing audience wants and expects ONLY the results and some highlights? I dunno. I'm old. It's the games - the entire games, the competition, plays, etc. all of it that matters. Aren't you supposed to consume and enjoy the whole meal (or at least parts of it...some of the banal makes the good parts more memorable), not just dessert?
For the record, I don't MySpace, Instaface, X, Y or Z, and I don't condemn any of them or the folks that enjoy their use...so maybe I'm just out of touch!
I think there's just more going on in our kids' lives. On a random weekday night, if he has free time, he's going to spend it playing Fortnite with his friends - it's a form of socialising - rather than sitting down and watching a basketball game. Or a football game, mind you. And especially a baseball game.

And with regards to watching basketball for the competition / strategy / matchups etc. - that's how I like to watch but my son (and most of his friends) spends hours a week doing this for their own sports that they compete in so I understand if they just want to follow along the NBA narrative. When I was young, we used to play sports. Now my son is "training" hours a week. Don't know if it's better or worse but it sure is different.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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He was about to get PAID too.

In more sad news, watching Trayce Jackson-Davis dunking all over the Timberwolves only minutes after watching Jordan Walsh jog through garbage times is giving me agita.
Posted without comment:

View: https://twitter.com/Mahcus_Smaht/status/1869220460162142221


I really can’t get over this. Walsh isn’t a threat to shoot or drive, and the Celtics are still all time great offensively with him on the court.
It’s beyond insane lol.
I think my favorite net rating stat is that in 231 non garbage time possessions with Walsh in the game, the Celtics are +18.6. 99th percentile in points per 100, too.
They have solved the equation.
 

lovegtm

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Posted without comment:

View: https://twitter.com/Mahcus_Smaht/status/1869220460162142221


I really can’t get over this. Walsh isn’t a threat to shoot or drive, and the Celtics are still all time great offensively with him on the court.
It’s beyond insane lol.
I think my favorite net rating stat is that in 231 non garbage time possessions with Walsh in the game, the Celtics are +18.6. 99th percentile in points per 100, too.
They have solved the equation.
(Tatum or Brown) + Mazzulla = offensive system

It's getting ridiculous: you can put almost anyone with Tatum or Brown, and you get a good offense. I can't stress enough how anomalous this is in the NBA, particularly since neither of those two has eye-popping efficiency. (Brown's individual offense is extremely inefficient this year.)

The ability to then plug in anyone around that and get good results is very peak Spurs-ian.
 

RorschachsMask

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Posted without comment:

View: https://twitter.com/Mahcus_Smaht/status/1869220460162142221


I really can’t get over this. Walsh isn’t a threat to shoot or drive, and the Celtics are still all time great offensively with him on the court.
It’s beyond insane lol.
I think my favorite net rating stat is that in 231 non garbage time possessions with Walsh in the game, the Celtics are +18.6. 99th percentile in points per 100, too.
They have solved the equation.
More proof of Brad/Mazz’s genius, and obviously how good the other players are lol.

Walsh literally does nothing offensively, just stands there, and they are still an unstoppable juggernaut when he’s in with real rotation players.
 

Montana Fan

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@the moops - ya’ gotta love it. There’s no official in the league that is going to give Green that call. He flails around on everyone and it was a pleasure to see him be manhandled.

@luckiestman - There is no way I would trade either JB or JT for “send da’ video/not gonna dunk”. The quintessential million dollar skill & a 5 cent head.
 

InstaFace

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I really can’t get over this. Walsh isn’t a threat to shoot or drive, and the Celtics are still all time great offensively with him on the court.
It’s beyond insane lol.
I think my favorite net rating stat is that in 231 non garbage time possessions with Walsh in the game, the Celtics are +18.6. 99th percentile in points per 100, too.
They have solved the equation.
I'll say this for him, he has his moments where he looks like an NBA starter - like, you can see the projection there - and had one last night:

View: https://twitter.com/DanielleHobeika/status/1870666455978852409


You can say whatever you like about how often that level of skill is on display by him on an NBA court, and I won't argue. But it's in there somewhere.
 

RorschachsMask

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I'll say this for him, he has his moments where he looks like an NBA starter - like, you can see the projection there - and had one last night:

View: https://twitter.com/DanielleHobeika/status/1870666455978852409


You can say whatever you like about how often that level of skill is on display by him on an NBA court, and I won't argue. But it's in there somewhere.
Yeah when he plays in garbage time he will show some aggression. With the starters though? He’s pretty much a corner statue lol.
 

InstaFace

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Yeah when he plays in garbage time he will show some aggression. With the starters though? He’s pretty much a corner statue lol.
Between Williams, THT and Buzelis, that's 1 starter and 2 other rotation players still out there for Chicago. That wasn't against some G-Leaguers, he beat their hot young Lithuanian star, Buzelis, off the dribble. Give the man some credit.

Yes, when playing with some Celtics starters in non-garbage time, Walsh will act as if he's the worst offensive option out there - which he is - and position himself accordingly. All I'm saying is, he does show flashes of starter-level ability on both ends, so Walsh having a not-terrible rating when he's out there is at least partially a testament to how hard he's working to maximize his talent, and not solely a testament to how amazing our starters are at organizing the team on the floor and working together.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I'll say this for him, he has his moments where he looks like an NBA starter - like, you can see the projection there - and had one last night:

View: https://twitter.com/DanielleHobeika/status/1870666455978852409


You can say whatever you like about how often that level of skill is on display by him on an NBA court, and I won't argue. But it's in there somewhere.
Agree with this. Yes he's super deferential to the older players when he plays with them - I mean most guys are going to be, except maybe PP, but he's a case all unto himself. But maybe his defense also helps to generate some easy looks on the other end.

It will be interesting to look back at that draft and see who has a long career and who doesn't. Lot of interesting names starting at 25 when BOS traded out, including Marcus Sasser, who looked good against BOS when they played DET, the aforementioned TJD, AJax, Julian Phillips, GG Jackson, Toumani Camara, and a bunch of others who look to be rotation players at the minimum.
 

RorschachsMask

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Between Williams, THT and Buzelis, that's 1 starter and 2 other rotation players still out there for Chicago. That wasn't against some G-Leaguers, he beat their hot young Lithuanian star, Buzelis, off the dribble. Give the man some credit.

Yes, when playing with some Celtics starters in non-garbage time, Walsh will act as if he's the worst offensive option out there - which he is - and position himself accordingly. All I'm saying is, he does show flashes of starter-level ability on both ends, so Walsh having a not-terrible rating when he's out there is at least partially a testament to how hard he's working to maximize his talent, and not solely a testament to how amazing our starters are at organizing the team on the floor and working together.
I love his physical tools, and they’ve kicked ass with him playing with the regulars. I just think it’s almost entirely a testament to Joe and the other players lol.

He hasn’t hurt them, and he’s very good defensively.
 

InstaFace

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I really loved him at 4 years / $9M per, for ages 27-30. Great positive value on that contract.

4 years, $20M per, for ages 31-34... I dunno how positive value that will be.
 

benhogan

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I really loved him at 4 years / $9M per, for ages 27-30. Great positive value on that contract.

4 years, $20M per, for ages 31-34... I dunno how positive value that will be.
Right. I know the narrative is they have the space now and they can always move him (esp since they own a gazillion picks) BUT J-Dub & Chet will get expensive quick.

Different style players but once again highlights the excellent work Zarren/Brad did on PP/Hauser contracts, who combined will make less than Caruso for the next 4 seasons.
 

Devizier

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That’s the market rate for a player like Caruso, which is why it’s so damn hard to build what the Celtics have. I think the era of teams like the Spurs unlocking overlooked veterans on near-minimum contracts is past.
 

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That’s the market rate for a player like Caruso, which is why it’s so damn hard to build what the Celtics have. I think the era of teams like the Spurs unlocking overlooked veterans on near-minimum contracts is past.
I think Brad has shown you have get them while they’re young. Pritchard, Hauser, even Queta are all guys that developed through the system and the deals are favorable for the C’s because Brad is negotiating when the player doesn’t have much leverage. When you sign older guys like Grant or Caruso you‘re gonna pay more. In a league that is so deep that LW4, Oshae Brissett and Lamar Stevens can’t even get a roster spot, taking shots on Schierman and Hauser types and having a few pop is as valuable or maybe more valuable than having a top 10 draft pick.

@wade boggs chicken dinner, is there a site that ranks player contract value? I know that the metrics for valuing players in the NBA are a bit dubious but I’d like to see a ranking of the entire league, best contract value to worst.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I think Brad has shown you have get them while they’re young. Pritchard, Hauser, even Queta are all guys that developed through the system and the deals are favorable for the C’s because Brad is negotiating when the player doesn’t have much leverage. When you sign older guys like Grant or Caruso you‘re gonna pay more. In a league that is so deep that LW4, Oshae Brissett and Lamar Stevens can’t even get a roster spot, taking shots on Schierman and Hauser types and having a few pop is as valuable or maybe more valuable than having a top 10 draft pick.

@wade boggs chicken dinner, is there a site that ranks player contract value? I know that the metrics for valuing players in the NBA are a bit dubious but I’d like to see a ranking of the entire league, best contract value to worst.
Not that I know of but someone else may. Here's a list of contracts: https://www.spotrac.com/nba/rankings/_/year/2024. Someone would have to take something like contract amount divided by some metric to determine value but . . . .

Seems like the #1 contract value is Jokic (depending on how much better one thinks he than everyone else in the league) or SGA - as top-end talent is what drives teams in the NBA and who knows what Jokic would be paid if there wasn't a salary cap?

Or Wemby, if one looks strictly at dollars/value.
 

Kliq

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Warriors have been trying to float Kuminga out there for a while because they view him as the asset they could trade that could get them the best return for a win-now star, but I find that pretty unlikely given the asking price of most of the star players in the NBA.

Impossible to dislike Steph but watching the Warriors flounder is great. Kerr and Green are as unlikeable of a duo as the league has--Kerr in particular just feels like an entitled finance executive wearing a vest over a dress shirt and yelling at the refs during his sons games.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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I really loved him at 4 years / $9M per, for ages 27-30. Great positive value on that contract.

4 years, $20M per, for ages 31-34... I dunno how positive value that will be.
Doesn't matter if it's positive value; as someone on Reddit pointed out, OKC can attach one of its 17 1st round draft picks or a couple of its 17 second-round draft picks to Caruso or any other contract if they feel like they need to move him.

OKC's real limiting factors will be the 2nd apron and roster spots. After next year, the cap/tax/aprons will make roster decisions increasing difficult.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Remember our 2008 team and how Doc patched together the disconnect between veterans and youth? I’m sure this isn’t uncommon everywhere with guys needing numbers and being pressured by family, friends, representatives to get those numbers but something similar going on with the Warriors as well. I saw a nearly identical play from the same game where Podziemski ignored a wide open Curry with only one ball swing needed to get off a step back contested 3…..the only difference between his shot and Kuminga’s is that he made it.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Remember our 2008 team and how Doc patched together the disconnect between veterans and youth? I’m sure this isn’t uncommon everywhere with guys needing numbers and being pressured by family, friends, representatives to get those numbers but something similar going on with the Warriors as well. I saw a nearly identical play from the same game where Podziemski ignored a wide open Curry with only one ball swing needed to get off a step back contested 3…..the only difference between his shot and Kuminga’s is that he made it.
I presume by the bolded you were referring to this shot: Video and Shotcharts | Stats | NBA.com

Agree that the best part of Doc's coaching in 2008 was to get buy-in from everyone and agree that the "two timeline" idea is really hard to pull off. One of the beauties of this iteration of the Cs is that everyone has gotten paid so people are willing to take a back seat when necessary.

I'm sure Kerr is trying to hammer home ball movement and getting the ball to Steph but Kuminga literally has tens or even riding on this year so is it even possible to convince to "sacrifice for the good of the team"? Not sure winning cures that.
 

Ed Hillel

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That’s peak Jimmy btw. Shiv on Xmas to Riley. He’s been waiting for this moment since Riley called him out after they got eliminated.
 

tims4wins

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I'm old enough to remember the days of (semi) serious discussion whether the Celts would be better off trading Jaylen for Jimmy (or even Tatum). Yikes.
 

Pablo's TB Lover

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This Dunk the Halls Disney broadcast is a cute change of pace, but secretly I want a "Malice at the Palace" situation to see what they do with the animation. Do they players and characters start fighting patrons in the souvenir shops along main street?
 

PedroKsBambino

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What do we make of the Butler thing at this point? A few comments...

1) Riley I think knew what he was doing when he called Butler out in May. not playing enough, wanting a huge extension, Riley was greasing the wheels, imo. At time I thought that was most likely for a summer move, when Butler had a year left. That may or may not have been their intent but isn't how it played out.
2) Butler is angling for a big extension and Heat aren't going to give it - so that is likely why he's pushing now...his FA market is going to be limited, isn't it?
3) The player option Butler has cretaes some mess here for Heat---they are effectively trading a FA to be, but one who is encumbered by a big player option. I know Butler is saying he'll decline, but bet that doesn't end up in writing.
4) Regardless of what Riley says I suspect Jimmy is done in Miami by deadline. He wants a different situation and likely better positioning for an extension; Miami has a pretty strong incentive to get more out of him than they would this summer (zero, or maybe a S&T?)
5) Even though market is limited- teams need the right contracts, some picks or young players, and be a win-now situation---I think there's some possibilities out there
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Butler (and Fox) is(are) pretty clearly being teed up by representation if my feeds are accurate. The new CBA undoubtedly limits their markets more than before so perhaps that freezes things but I suspect both will be moved by the deadline. Riley is just talking his book imo - of the two, Butler is the one who probably needs to be moved sooner. If I had to guess, negotiations might be a bit thornier given that they can trade with fewer counterparties. So maybe we get a lot more bluster around transactions going forward.
 

BigSoxFan

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What do we make of the Butler thing at this point? A few comments...

1) Riley I think knew what he was doing when he called Butler out in May. not playing enough, wanting a huge extension, Riley was greasing the wheels, imo. At time I thought that was most likely for a summer move, when Butler had a year left. That may or may not have been their intent but isn't how it played out.
2) Butler is angling for a big extension and Heat aren't going to give it - so that is likely why he's pushing now...his FA market is going to be limited, isn't it?
3) The player option Butler has cretaes some mess here for Heat---they are effectively trading a FA to be, but one who is encumbered by a big player option. I know Butler is saying he'll decline, but bet that doesn't end up in writing.
4) Regardless of what Riley says I suspect Jimmy is done in Miami by deadline. He wants a different situation and likely better positioning for an extension; Miami has a pretty strong incentive to get more out of him than they would this summer (zero, or maybe a S&T?)
5) Even though market is limited- teams need the right contracts, some picks or young players, and be a win-now situation---I think there's some possibilities out there
I’ve been toying with this and the team I keep coming back to is Houston. For salary match purposes, I believe they could offer Brooks/Adams and then a young prospect like Thompson or Sheppard. Given the presence of Herro, another all offense white Kentucky Wildcat, you’d think Thompson would appeal to Miami more.

Houston’s new lineup:

Sengun
Smith
Butler
Green
VanVleet

That’s a damn good lineup. On the flip side, Miami gets a young starter with upside that they desperately need and probably a future pick.
 

Kliq

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I don't think Butler can go to Houston just based on the fact that they desperately need outside shooting and Butler is a high-volume guy that is a negative in that regard.

When Miami didn't give Butler the extension, it was basically a lock he would be traded. I suppose he could have played lights-out to start the season, Miami looked like a true contender, and he does get that extension, but it has been more of the same from him--inconsistently on the court and the team just isn't that good. If the salary situation wasn't so complex now, he likely would have already been traded.
 

Pablo's TB Lover

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I’ve been toying with this and the team I keep coming back to is Houston. For salary match purposes, I believe they could offer Brooks/Adams and then a young prospect like Thompson or Sheppard. Given the presence of Herro, another all offense white Kentucky Wildcat, you’d think Thompson would appeal to Miami more.

Houston’s new lineup:

Sengun
Smith
Butler
Green
VanVleet

That’s a damn good lineup. On the flip side, Miami gets a young starter with upside that they desperately need and probably a future pick.
That is quite the pupu platter though, would Miami really settle for that? Not that I disagree, but the Heat will need SOMETHING to show for losing their franchise player. For example, this won't happen, but an oft-injured high end player like Zion could at least be sold to the fanbase.
 

BigSoxFan

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That is quite the pupu platter though, would Miami really settle for that? Not that I disagree, but the Heat will need SOMETHING to show for losing their franchise player. For example, this won't happen, but an oft-injured high end player like Zion could at least be sold to the fanbase.
Miami has a fan base :)?

I think with a public trade demand, Butler’s age, and contract status, you’re simply not getting more than the pupu platter for him. Getting a younger guy with promise and a cheap pick is probably the best Riley can do.
 

BigSoxFan

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I don't think Butler can go to Houston just based on the fact that they desperately need outside shooting and Butler is a high-volume guy that is a negative in that regard.

When Miami didn't give Butler the extension, it was basically a lock he would be traded. I suppose he could have played lights-out to start the season, Miami looked like a true contender, and he does get that extension, but it has been more of the same from him--inconsistently on the court and the team just isn't that good. If the salary situation wasn't so complex now, he likely would have already been traded.
They do but VanVleet and Jalen Green returning to career averages would solve some of that. I was thinking Houston because Butler fits Ime’s defensive mentality and they have some expendable young talent. Thompson is a guy who I’d want if I were Riley. Way too soon to call Reed Sheppard a bust but my bust senses are tingling with him. Feels like a guy who, if everything works out, is basically Payton Pritchard. And those types have far more value on contenders than rebuilders.

Ultimately, given his salary, finding a trade isn’t going to be easy. Just aren’t a whole lot of realistic options.