General NBA season thread: 24-25 edition

InstaFace

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They should start a senior league so they can keep putting Lebron and Curry against each other in prime time.
Jokes aside, the data posted upthread shows that while the 8pm (GSW / LAL) slot had the biggest jump, that does not account for most of the gains: 10:30pm (Nuggets-Suns, neither one a huge draw) was up 200%, and Noon (Knicks-Wemby) was up 70%. It was pretty well distributed. Just very encouraging for the league.
 

Kliq

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Anyone seriously concerned about NBA ratings should just look at the kajillion dollar TV deal the league signed, where every major broadcasting entity was bidding for it.
 

The Social Chair

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Jokes aside, the data posted upthread shows that while the 8pm (GSW / LAL) slot had the biggest jump, that does not account for most of the gains: 10:30pm (Nuggets-Suns, neither one a huge draw) was up 200%, and Noon (Knicks-Wemby) was up 70%. It was pretty well distributed. Just very encouraging for the league.
Those 3 games were not going up against the NFL, and they broadcast every game on ABC /Disney+ this year.

I'll also add there were 3 NFL games last year vs 2 this year, and the NFL games were on broadcast TV in 2023. Still positive trends though!

Anyone seriously concerned about NBA ratings should just look at the kajillion dollar TV deal the league signed, where every major broadcasting entity was bidding for it.

That says more about legacy media than the NBA. Broadcasting companies either wanted volume sports content to prop up rapidly falling cable fees (Discovery) or to use it as a way to drive interest to fledgling streaming services (Comcast, Amazon, Disney). I tend to doubt that the money will be there domestically in 10 years.

Adam Silver had perfect timing. I still think the NBA is mostly fine, people just need to stop comparing it to the NFL.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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What do we make of the Butler thing at this point? A few comments...

1) Riley I think knew what he was doing when he called Butler out in May. not playing enough, wanting a huge extension, Riley was greasing the wheels, imo. At time I thought that was most likely for a summer move, when Butler had a year left. That may or may not have been their intent but isn't how it played out.
2) Butler is angling for a big extension and Heat aren't going to give it - so that is likely why he's pushing now...his FA market is going to be limited, isn't it?
3) The player option Butler has cretaes some mess here for Heat---they are effectively trading a FA to be, but one who is encumbered by a big player option. I know Butler is saying he'll decline, but bet that doesn't end up in writing.
4) Regardless of what Riley says I suspect Jimmy is done in Miami by deadline. He wants a different situation and likely better positioning for an extension; Miami has a pretty strong incentive to get more out of him than they would this summer (zero, or maybe a S&T?)
5) Even though market is limited- teams need the right contracts, some picks or young players, and be a win-now situation---I think there's some possibilities out there
the only team with cap space this summer to sign Butler is BRK. So everyone thinks MIA is not going to lose Butler for nothing.

There might be a sign-and-trade this summer but that would lock the receiving team into a hard cap at the first apron (IIRC) and I’m not sure which teams would be to do this.

My guess - and I would guess Riley’s as well - is that Butler will opt into his option next year. At that MIA would have to get serious.
 

PedroKsBambino

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I’d guess Was, New Orleans, Charlotte, possibly Spurs could get towards a number Butler would take on a multi year deal too.

At least NOLA and Spurs a bit interesting to ponder—though former is overall an unknown and latter may not want the Jimmy show.

I do think Jimmy’s statement he won’t opt in should be taken at a lot less than face value.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Pels are over the luxury tax right now but have never paid the tax. They won’t pay it this year - they have made virtually everyone available in a trade and only have to clear something like $1.5M - but even if they move CJ and Ingram, they still have Zion at $46M; Murray at approximately $30M and Murphy gets a huge raise to $35M, plus whatever salary they have to take back. NOP will not be able to clear cap space to sign Butler to his desired max contract.

Butler isn’t going to WAS as he wants to play for a contender, and WAS is trying to lose next year too.

SAS could probably do it if it wanted to but I would be shocked if they thought Wesby and Butler is a good pairing.
 

InstaFace

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If he was a free agent, given his age (35) and production (holding up well) and health (intermittent), how much would he go for? I'd say probably $20-30M.

His option is for $52.4M. He's going to pick that up, no matter what team he plays for to earn it. This isn't even "Follow the Money 101", this is like remedial following-of-the-money.

And there will be teams out there who convince themselves they're a Jimmy Butler away from contention, and a 1-year deal is super easy to sell ownership on.
 

HomeRunBaker

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Miami has a fan base :)?
This keeps getting repeated and is flat out wrong. I don’t know if it comes from the lower bowl of the arena being mostly empty in the 1Q or what but the Heat’s fanbase have been ranked as one of the leagues best based off jersey sales and social media following. Miami has been in the Top-5 for Home attendance every year since 2019 and hadn’t been outside the Top-8 since 2010.

If you live north of Fort Lauderdale where the majority of fans reside you cannot get off work at 5pm and make it to your seat by 7 between traffic and the location of the arena. I haven’t gone to Celtics games here because it’s absolute hell to get to a game. The two games I’ve been the arena didn’t fill up until the 2Q….I mean they have a steak of over 600+ sold out games. They aren’t late arriving by choice they are late arriving because they don’t have a choice.
 

BigSoxFan

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This keeps getting repeated and is flat out wrong. I don’t know if it comes from the lower bowl of the arena being mostly empty in the 1Q or what but the Heat’s fanbase have been ranked as one of the leagues best based off jersey sales and social media following. Miami has been in the Top-5 for Home attendance every year since 2019 and hadn’t been outside the Top-8 since 2010.

If you live north of Fort Lauderdale where the majority of fans reside you cannot get off work at 5pm and make it to your seat by 7 between traffic and the location of the arena. I haven’t gone to Celtics games here because it’s absolute hell to get to a game. The two games I’ve been the arena didn’t fill up until the 2Q….I mean they have a steak of over 600+ sold out games. They aren’t late arriving by choice they are late arriving because they don’t have a choice.
Note to self: no more throwaway lines about Heat fans in the Port Cellar.
 

the moops

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That is quite the pupu platter though, would Miami really settle for that? Not that I disagree, but the Heat will need SOMETHING to show for losing their franchise player. For example, this won't happen, but an oft-injured high end player like Zion could at least be sold to the fanbase.
If they got either Sheppard or Thompson I would be shocked. If traded I don't think they get a top prospect like either of those guys
 

lovegtm

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If they got either Sheppard or Thompson I would be shocked. If traded I don't think they get a top prospect like either of those guys
Yeah, when it comes time to actually decide to trade for a 35 year-old or not, teams tend to err on the side of keeping their top prospects.

Totally different from trading for a 26-32 year-old.
 

BigSoxFan

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Yeah, when it comes time to actually decide to trade for a 35 year-old or not, teams tend to err on the side of keeping their top prospects.

Totally different from trading for a 26-32 year-old.
Yes, but Suns recently gave up Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, 4 first round picks and a pick swap for a 34.5 year-old Durant. Obviously, Durant is better than Butler and was signed for longer but it wouldn’t shock me to see a guy like Reed Sheppard going over to Miami if Houston were serious about Butler. They’d obviously prefer to hold onto Thompson but Riley isn’t going to hand Butler to another team for salary filler and a garbage 1st…I don’t think so at least.
 

lovegtm

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Yes, but Suns recently gave up Mikal Bridges, Cam Johnson, 4 first round picks and a pick swap for a 34.5 year-old Durant. Obviously, Durant is better than Butler and was signed for longer but it wouldn’t shock me to see a guy like Reed Sheppard going over to Miami if Houston were serious about Butler. They’d obviously prefer to hold onto Thompson but Riley isn’t going to hand Butler to another team for salary filler and a garbage 1st…I don’t think so at least.
Durant is such an outlier in terms of talent that I'm not sure how applicable he is.
 

BigSoxFan

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Durant is such an outlier in terms of talent that I'm not sure how applicable he is.
He went for far more than a Reed Sheppard type so I think he’s a valid example that can be used with the appropriate discount rate.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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It feels like the new CBA is going to limit these markets. I expect the Heat to ask for Thompson and in seasons past that would likely be the cost. But Butler is fully priced and doesn't have a lot of landing spots - GS feels like the other fit here - so I bet that Houston can get him for less.

The deal I want to see is what, if anything, pries Fox loose from Sacto.
 

BigSoxFan

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It feels like the new CBA is going to limit these markets. I expect the Heat to ask for Thompson and in seasons past that would likely be the cost. But Butler is fully priced and doesn't have a lot of landing spots - GS feels like the other fit here - so I bet that Houston can get him for less.

The deal I want to see is what, if anything, pries Fox loose from Sacto.
Fox is an interesting case. Would be a nice addition for the Spurs as Wemby’s sidekick. Castle, filler, and future picks?
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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Fox is an interesting case. Would be a nice addition for the Spurs as Wemby’s sidekick. Castle, filler, and future picks?
I don't know how a deal looks but if I am Sacramento I am asking for multiple young bodies plus picks. Fox feels like a great fit, especially for where both he and Wemby are in their careers. The Kings will know this of course and likely ask for a lot. If this rumored deal is even being discussed...
 

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I don't know how a deal looks but if I am Sacramento I am asking for multiple young bodies plus picks. Fox feels like a great fit, especially for where both he and Wemby are in their careers. The Kings will know this of course and likely ask for a lot. If this rumored deal is even being discussed...
Yup. I’d also ask for Vassell as well. Sochan doesn’t feel like a great fit with Sabonis. This just feels like a situation where Klutch is trying to steer their guy away from a team. Windhorst also mentioned Houston as a possibility, which makes sense since they have a ton of young players to deal.
 

BigSoxFan

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Seems well shot of what Kings would want, though they are tough to figure.
Yeah, I don’t think that gets it done but if you add Vassell, perhaps they listen. The Spurs also control the 2025-2027 Hawks drafts, which has the potential to be quite lucrative. They also own Minny’s 2030-2031 drafts.
 

BigMike

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He went for far more than a Reed Sheppard type so I think he’s a valid example that can be used with the appropriate discount rate.
Agreed, the real question is would Houston be willing to give up their desire to get Durant, which I am sure they still have, to settle for Butler instead.

If they decide they d want Butler, they will end up giving up at least one high end prospect, and potentially multiple picks
 

the moops

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He went for far more than a Reed Sheppard type so I think he’s a valid example that can be used with the appropriate discount rate.
Jimmy Butler is in the last year of his deal, has proven to be oft-injured, and causes a stink everywhere he has been. I just don't know if looking at super duper stars like Durant offers any sort of comparison. Maybe better to look at almost all-stars that have been traded and go upwards from what they were traded for
 

BigSoxFan

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Jimmy Butler is in the last year of his deal, has proven to be oft-injured, and causes a stink everywhere he has been. I just don't know if looking at super duper stars like Durant offers any sort of comparison. Maybe better to look at almost all-stars that have been traded and go upwards from what they were traded for
There aren’t too many samples to pull from here so just pulling the most recent example and then applying a heavy discount rate on the return for the variables you’ve mentioned. Not really disagreeing with you both on this. All really depends on how motivated Houston is. If they’re lukewarm, this doesn’t likely happen. If they want Butler in a semi GFIN type move, I could see Sheppard being pried loose. I’m also very bearish on his prospects, perhaps more than others here. Thompson is likely a pipe dream for Miami but I never say never with Pat Riley.
 

PedroKsBambino

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Jimmy Butler is in the last year of his deal, has proven to be oft-injured, and causes a stink everywhere he has been. I just don't know if looking at super duper stars like Durant offers any sort of comparison. Maybe better to look at almost all-stars that have been traded and go upwards from what they were traded for
....while I agree Durant is clearly worth more, amusing to note that "oft-injured, and causes a stink everywhere he has been" is also true of Durant! Though the stink is usually near the end/after the fact and less...stinky.
 

joe dokes

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Why doesn't one of the targets of his intent to injure just say the obvious out loud: "Its quite sad when a once-great player's skills erode due to age and he must resort to playing dirty without regard to injuring anyone." And add, just for grins, "I really hope the last couple of years of his antics don't cost him Hall of Fame votes."
 

Euclis20

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Looks like mike brown got the axe. Where does fox end up?
Gotta figure that’s about it for Mike Brown as a head coach. 3rd time being fired, even with a career winning % of .599, that’s tough to come back from without an NBA title on your resume. The NBA dream for Fox is the Spurs, right? That’s an interesting group right now if you pair him with Wemby, not for title contention but I’m dying to see Wemby with an all-star level teammate whose game fits.
 

Euclis20

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Yeah, and he had some not-so-veiled criticisms of Fox after the game. Wonder if this move was in the name of star appeasement.
Certainly a possibility (especially with Fox a real threat to leave at some point in the near future), but since finally climbing out of the lottery in 2023, it’s been a steep fall back to mediocrity. 2nd in the west in 2023, 9th last year, and 12th so far this year (and on pace for about 11 fewer wins than last year). Considering they’ve got mostly the same group of players (and their two best guys are still playing like all-stars), it’s understandably unacceptable.
 

LA_33

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Of the places who might actually value Bulter for the next year or two and where he potentially fits, GS seems like the best combo of motivated to make a real offer, and having pieces to move.

The value+salary matching isn’t ideal, because I’m sure they’d prefer to keep Wiggins if Kuminga is the primary value (which I think he would be) but it likely needs to be both of them.

Even if Miami can’t pry any real picks, Kuminga with Wiggins+Schroder as the match makes sense for the Heat.

I’m not sure many other teams will offer enough future value to outweigh the salaries that would need to go back to Miami (like, Jimmy can want Phoenix, but it only works with Beal, Bradley has a no-trade clause and isn’t positive value for the Heat anyway, but Suns don’t have any picks to add).

I think more teams will make real offers on Fox (Spurs certainly make sense, he fits better in HOU than Jimmy does, maybe Miami tries to add to their Butler return, Orlando could still use a lead guard, etc.) But Kings also have less motivation to move him.
 

jon abbey

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Certainly a possibility (especially with Fox a real threat to leave at some point in the near future), but since finally climbing out of the lottery in 2023, it’s been a steep fall back to mediocrity. 2nd in the west in 2023, 9th last year, and 12th so far this year (and on pace for about 11 fewer wins than last year). Considering they’ve got mostly the same group of players (and their two best guys are still playing like all-stars), it’s understandably unacceptable.
It’s still strange to extend him and then fire him 31 games later, good job KingsTown.
 

InstaFace

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It’s still strange to extend him and then fire him 31 games later, good job KingsTown.
Yeah your coach would need to be spending games in a drunken stupor on the sideline, like an actual embarrassment, to go from "coach of the year a year ago" and "3-year extension a few months ago" to "gotta fire him, has to be done" in that span of time.

They're 13-18, obviously a disappointment relative to expectations, but still plenty of time to turn it around. Instead... what are they possibly going to get out of the season now?
 

benhogan

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Yeah your coach would need to be spending games in a drunken stupor on the sideline, like an actual embarrassment, to go from "coach of the year a year ago" and "3-year extension a few months ago" to "gotta fire him, has to be done" in that span of time.

They're 13-18, obviously a disappointment relative to expectations, but still plenty of time to turn it around. Instead... what are they possibly going to get out of the season now?
Lighting the Beam was fun while it lasted.

Stauskas

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HomeRunBaker

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This is how we rank fanbases?
Engagement? I mean…yeah? Sellouts? Yeah. Shitting on a fanbase like Charlotte who once cared so much then cared so little that they voted for a new publicly funded arena without even knowing that they voted for it until the next morning would make more sense.
 

lovegtm

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Random thought from the Indy game last night: does anyone else play as small as Halliburton? He's 6-5 but plays like he's 5-11. Guys just go right through him consistently, like he's not even there. Pritchard took him right under the hoop with ease. Never is able to contest--may as well not have arms. It's definitely a strength issue, but there are plenty of guys with similar body types who don't play THAT small.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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Random thought from the Indy game last night: does anyone else play as small as Halliburton? He's 6-5 but plays like he's 5-11. Guys just go right through him consistently, like he's not even there. Pritchard took him right under the hoop with ease. Never is able to contest--may as well not have arms. It's definitely a strength issue, but there are plenty of guys with similar body types who don't play THAT small.
Lonzo?
 

the moops

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Random thought from the Indy game last night: does anyone else play as small as Halliburton? He's 6-5 but plays like he's 5-11. Guys just go right through him consistently, like he's not even there. Pritchard took him right under the hoop with ease. Never is able to contest--may as well not have arms. It's definitely a strength issue, but there are plenty of guys with similar body types who don't play THAT small.
I have been on the Halburton is the worst defensive guard in the league train for some time. Like worse than Trae Young. He offers such little resistance of any kind it is kind of shocking at times
 

lovegtm

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I have been on the Halburton is the worst defensive guard in the league train for some time. Like worse than Trae Young. He offers such little resistance of any kind it is kind of shocking at times
Yup. Trae gets into guys sometimes when he tries, and can provide some resistance. Halliburton clearly just doesn't care about building the strength he needs to compete defensively -- this is probably just who he is, barring some huge come to Jesus moment.
 

benhogan

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Random thought from the Indy game last night: does anyone else play as small as Halliburton? He's 6-5 but plays like he's 5-11. Guys just go right through him consistently, like he's not even there. Pritchard took him right under the hoop with ease. Never is able to contest--may as well not have arms. It's definitely a strength issue, but there are plenty of guys with similar body types who don't play THAT small.
He capitulates at the first bit of contact. He never digs in defensively (I'll probably eat these words tomorrow)

Halliburton came with a decent defensive reputation from college. It just shows the massive difference between the power/brute strength of NBA players relative to NCAA kids.

He was the only NCAA Division I true freshman, other than Zion Williamson, to accumulate at least 50 steals and 30 blocks.

Off the top of my head, bad defensive NBA guards that start & teams hunt:
Halliburton, Trae, Poole, Dame, DLo, Simons, Sexton, CJ McCollum, Ball