Getting Smart with Statistics

BigSoxFan

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I would love to know what the Celtics offered Smart last summer. Seems like he and his agent may have really misread the market.
 

Swedgin

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Indiana still can get to around 12M if they wanted to fire it all at Smart. They're probably the best fit left for him.

My bad, you are right. They can even get a little higher if they wanted to stretch Big Al's partial guaranty. Marcus must be hoping Tyreke's meeting today goes poorly.
 

nighthob

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The problem with playing on a contract year is that his minutes will be reduced here with Hayward and Kyrie back along with Jaylen and Rozier.
You're right, Morris won't be happy here. Especially as his position moved west recently. On the bright side there are a lot of teams out that way that could really use him. Like Utah (it would be hilarious if Danny could find a way to slip Morris to the Jazz and they managed to topple the Lakers in the first round with his help).
 

Ed Hillel

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I would love to know what the Celtics offered Smart last summer. Seems like he and his agent may have really misread the market.
I don’t agree. He might lose money up front, but if he hits free agency next year he’s going to make bank, bro.
 

BigSoxFan

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I don’t agree. He might lose money up front, but if he hits free agency next year he’s going to make bank, bro.
We'll see about that. There will be more cap space next summer but a lot more competition. Teams know what they have in Smart and I'd be surprised if someone values that contribution at $14-15M / season or whatever he's looking for.
 

Swedgin

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Indy signed Evans for 1 year at 12. The market overall is looking brutal, meaning the RFA market is a hellscape.

At what point does the sheer number of guys signing one year deals makes next year equally tough for the non-stars?
 

HomeRunBaker

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Somewhere in Oregon, Evan Turner is smiling.

It's all about FA timing but the PA really screwed the pooch on this years class by not gradually increasing the cap rather than skyrocket it for one season.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Indy signed Evans for 1 year at 12. The market overall is looking brutal, meaning the RFA market is a hellscape.

At what point does the sheer number of guys signing one year deals makes next year equally tough for the non-stars?
And I hope it keeps happening because the only way we will see the death of the max contract is if only stars are getting paid.
 

lovegtm

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Somewhere in Oregon, Evan Turner is smiling.

It's all about FA timing but the PA really screwed the pooch on this years class by not gradually increasing the cap rather than skyrocket it for one season.
Hey, no fair. A consulting firm told them it was a good idea!
 

Papelbon's Poutine

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Sorry to be repetitive and I'm sure it's somewhere in one of these threads, but how close are they to the tax? Or rather, how much can they offer him and stay below the line? I've done a 180* on Smart and would like to see him stay a few more years, but I don't think he's worth the penalties.
 

nighthob

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Dante Exum's 3/33 seems like a reasonable comp for Smart, no?
Given that Exum has been injured for three years you can be certain that Hap’s using that terrible contract as a reference point.

Sorry to be repetitive and I'm sure it's somewhere in one of these threads, but how close are they to the tax? Or rather, how much can they offer him and stay below the line? I've done a 180* on Smart and would like to see him stay a few more years, but I don't think he's worth the penalties.
Once Smart’s contract is sorted out they’ll just move Morris and remain on the right side of the line. As of today Morris doesn’t really have much of a role here given that he’s competing against Hayward, Brown, Tatum, Horford, and Ojeleye for minutes.
 

Manzivino

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Sorry to be repetitive and I'm sure it's somewhere in one of these threads, but how close are they to the tax? Or rather, how much can they offer him and stay below the line? I've done a 180* on Smart and would like to see him stay a few more years, but I don't think he's worth the penalties.
Spotrac has them at a little under $8.5 assuming Williams gets 120% of rookie Basically if he signs the QO the Cs are fine, anything else they’ll have to make some moves to avoid the tax. Picking up Nader’s non-guaranteed option and waiving him frees up anywhere from $900k to $1.3M so if Smart signs at the MLE that’s a painless solution. As nighthob says, they can always flip Morris to free up room. One thing to remember is it’s not opening day payroll that determines luxury tax status, so the Cs could go into the year above the line and cut salary midseason.
 

Imbricus

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Celtics, Marcus Smart making progress toward new deal ... off a Keith Smith tweet this afternoon.

Smith said: "The Boston Celtics and Marcus Smart have had good dialogue on a new deal. Still not there, but neither side is in a rush."

Not much info there, but sounds like things are moving, if slowly?
 

InstaFace

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The longer they wait, the ever fewer suitors Smart will have who could outbid us.

Unless he's deep into talks with some of them already, and actually wants to let that process play out.

Come to think of it, we really can't draw much in the way of conclusions from this.
 

benhogan

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That Exum contract has to be driving Smart nutz. Especially with Dante getting drafted right in front of Marcus in '14.

Love the way Utah operates, but I don't get that deal in this free agent market.
 
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ishmael

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That Exum contract has to be driving Smart nutz. Especially with Dante getting drafted right in front of Marcus in '14.

Love the way Utah operates, but I don't get that deal in this free agent market.
What should actually drive Marcus nutz:
Screen Shot 2018-07-04 at 11.49.37 AM.png
 

benhogan

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What should actually drive Marcus nutz:
View attachment 21831
I know that drives most of us nuts around here.

Go take a look at Exum's shooting line (when he plays), not much better than Smart. He's probably bottom 10% in 3pt shooting % for a guard.

Exum is #9/10 in Utah's rotation. That's a lot of money to spend on a bench piece that can't shoot and is often injured. Not sure why Utah was in a rush to sign him? What other NBA team was offering him 3yrs/$33M?
 

Big John

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Both Exuum and Will Barton got $11M per from their existing teams. I think $11-12M is a fair starting number for Smart on a multi-year deal with a player option. There are teams with enough cap left to make that kind of offer, although that can change on an hourly basis at this time of year.
 

lovegtm

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I know that drives most of us nuts around here.

Go take a look at Exum's shooting line (when he plays), not much better than Smart. He's probably bottom 10% in 3pt shooting % for a guard.

Exum is #9/10 in Utah's rotation. That's a lot of money to spend on a bench piece that can't shoot and is often injured. Not sure why Utah was in a rush to sign him? What other NBA team was offering him 3yrs/$33M?
The only thing I can think is that Utah was burned when they made Hayward go out and get an offer, and they've decided not to let that happen again with anyone who they think has a decent chance to get good.

If Exum develops well and stays healthy, presumably he'll remember who paid him. I don't love the contract either, but the thought process isn't completely awful. I've lived in SLC, and I can't imagine signing there as a free agent unless I loved skiing or something (which the Jazz wouldn't let me do in any case).
 

Cesar Crespo

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Exum has missed so much time it's like Utah is paying him on his potential. He was a pretty good play maker in his limited time last year but it's still a head scratcher.
 

lovegtm

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Exum has missed so much time it's like Utah is paying him on his potential. He was a pretty good play maker in his limited time last year but it's still a head scratcher.
I think they feel like 11M/year isn't much more than a top 3 pick makes anyway, and they still seem him as having that potential, with the added benefit of physical maturity.

I should have added in my prior post that Utah seems to do a great job of generating loyalty in players who are there. Gobert loves them, Mitchell seems to love it, and they probably could have re-signed Hayward if they hadn't played games when he was an RFA. The more I think about it, the less I hate the contract, even if it is a bit marginal.
 

Cesar Crespo

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It would be great if Smart didn't get any offers though. I'd like to have him for one more year and then make a choice between him, Terry and possibly Kyrie.
 

TripleOT

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Exum a $11m a year and Favors at $19m keeps the band together another couple of years, before they have to pay Mitchell. It's not like max FAs are clamoring to sign with Utah. These signings will help Utah make the salary floor in 2020 and 2021.
 

Cesar Crespo

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Amazing Favors is still just 26. He rebounded a bit last year but 18m per for him seems like an awful lot. He did start shooting the 3 last year too. so if he continues that trend and improves his percentages, he may be worth it but meh.

I guess it was them or no one though, given how the NBA works.
 

lovegtm

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Amazing Favors is still just 26. He rebounded a bit last year but 18m per for him seems like an awful lot. He did start shooting the 3 last year too. so if he continues that trend and improves his percentages, he may be worth it but meh.

I guess it was them or no one though, given how the NBA works.
Yeah it's pretty hard to argue with big 1 year contracts. They pretty much never come back to bite teams, and also create salaries that make trades easier.
 

mcpickl

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Amazing Favors is still just 26. He rebounded a bit last year but 18m per for him seems like an awful lot. He did start shooting the 3 last year too. so if he continues that trend and improves his percentages, he may be worth it but meh.

I guess it was them or no one though, given how the NBA works.
I like Favors as a player, just wish he could find his way to another team. He should be a 5 in the NBA today.
 

The Mort Report

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I think the thing with Smart vs Exum is Smart is a finished product, Exum is not. Exum you throw a few extra million at in the chance that he realizes his potential since 3 of his 4 years have been derailed by injuries. Exum could easily outplay that contract, he could also flop, but his ceiling is still fairly high. We all have to be honest, Marcus is who he is. He’s most valuable to a contender as the 6-8th guy, I believe(would hope) most front offices know this. There is nothing is his game you can talk yourself into over paying
 

Big John

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Smart would be the perfect 3rd guard in Dallas. He can play the point when Smith is sitting, or the two when Doncic is out. Or they could go small and slide Doncic over to sf. Even with DeAndre Jordan arriving, they will have enough cap to offer Smart a good deal.

But Dallas has too many guards already. They drafted Jalen Brunson and they are waiting on RFA Yogi Ferrell. Plus Barea is still around. So who knows?
 

mcpickl

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Smart would be the perfect 3rd guard in Dallas. He can play the point when Smith is sitting, or the two when Doncic is out. Or they could go small and slide Doncic over to sf. Even with DeAndre Jordan arriving, they will have enough cap to offer Smart a good deal.

But Dallas has too many guards already. They drafted Jalen Brunson and they are waiting on RFA Yogi Ferrell. Plus Barea is still around. So who knows?
They have no cap space at all.
 

RedOctober3829

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Marcus is not too happy that the Celtics haven't had any contact with him since free agency has started.

LAS VEGAS — Though the NBA marketplace has overflowed with activity since the opening of free agency on July 1, Marcus Smart and his negotiating team are still waiting for their first call from the Celtics.

And according to someone close to the Smart camp, who requested anonymity to comment on the situation, the Celts guard is frustrated with the lack of outreach from his team.

“He loves the Celtics, but with these crickets he’s hearing, he’s hurt and disgusted by it,” said the source.

Though fellow 2014 lottery alumnus Dante Exum signed an eye-opening three-year, $33 million contract with Utah, for the most part the market has been bearish for restricted free agents.

However, limited prospects aren’t the main issue behind Smart’s disillusionment.

“I don’t think that bothers Marcus as much as no communication from Danny (Ainge),” said the source.

Reached yesterday, Ainge, the Celts president of basketball operations, declined comment.
For now, the only tangible bid from the team remains the $6.05 million qualifying offer tendered on June 29 to retain matching rights. For a player who projects his value in the vicinity of $14 million to $15 million, the lack of anything beyond a qualifying offer is being taken as an insult.

“He would have thought there would have been some kind of three- to four-year deal from them to show they’re interested,” said the source. “But the qualifying offer is the only one he has received, and there’s been no talk since free agency opened. He’s most disappointed that there has been no reaching out from their end.

“He’s just hurt and frustrated that Danny hasn’t reached out. That’s the most discouraging part of this whole thing. The last contact was a few days before free agency started."
http://www.bostonherald.com/sports/celtics/2018/07/marcus_smart_hurt_that_celtics_have_not_spoken_to_him_about_new_contract#.Wz7GNMax8FY.twitter
 

Imbricus

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Hard to tell what to believe anymore on the Smart rumors, but the Herald just moved this "Marcus Smart hurt that Celtics haven't reached out to him."
“He would have thought there would have been some kind of three- to four-year deal from them to show they’re interested,” said the source. “But the qualifying offer is the only one he has received, and there’s been no talk since free agency opened. He’s most disappointed that there has been no reaching out from their end.

“He’s just hurt and frustrated that Danny hasn’t reached out. That’s the most discouraging part of this whole thing. The last contact was a few days before free agency started.”
Negotiating ploy? Or is his agent just trying to get a phone call, to get things started?
 

Ed Hillel

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My guess is they really don’t want to sign him beyond this season right now because it could potentially interfere with max contracts, including next season if Kyrie leaves. There’s really no reason to say anything now, the market appears to be shaping up well for the Celtics, especially given Smart’s indication he’s worth 15 million plus. We also have no idea exactly what the extension talks last fall looked like. I’d personally let him walk if he signs an offer sheet, only because I don’t think anything he’d sign is going to be worth giving up cap flexibility.
 

Jed Zeppelin

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Until some of his young guys hit their second contracts in a better environment, Marcus is Happy Walters’ star client right now. I’m sure he’s very unhappy that the timing of this free agency turned out to be so bad. But that’s probably one of the reasons why Marcus Smart is Happy Walters’ star client right now.

Of course it is a ploy. He wants the Celtics to know that the fans now know how poorly they are (allegedly) treating a key piece of the team.
 

InstaFace

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The WEEI version of the story had this bit:

“He would have thought there would have been some kind of three- to four-year deal from them to show they’re interested,” the source added to Murphy. “But the qualifying offer is the only one he has received, and there’s been no talk since free agency opened. He’s most disappointed that there has been no reaching out from their end. He’s just hurt and frustrated that Danny [Ainge] hasn’t reached out. That’s the most discouraging part of this whole thing. The last contact was a few days before free agency started.”

Smart is valued around $15 million a year, so it can be seen why he's a little irritated the Celtics have not reached out.

With no new contract from the Celtics, it seems things are trending towards him becoming an unrestricted free agent next summer.

“If that’s the indication the Celtics are giving him — a one-year deal –— then absolutely, yes, he’s prepared for it,” the source said. “And that doesn’t bode well for the Celtics if it comes down to that.”
In case you're wondering if the news source is carrying water from one side or the other, this sort of turn of phrase is a great way to distinguish. Oh really, is that what he's valued at? Valued by whom? By what his agent told you, Ryan Hannable? What is the basis for such a declaration?

It's even better than the idea that after sending Smart a contract offer, somehow Danny still owns the next steps to reach out again and negotiate against himself.

I have a feeling when the deal is finally inked we're going to be singing Ainge's praises again. Smart will grumble for a bit and then get back to the business of being super fucking intense on a basketball court.
 

HomeRunBaker

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My guess is they really don’t want to sign him beyond this season right now because it could potentially interfere with max contracts, including next season if Kyrie leaves. There’s really no reason to say anything now, the market appears to be shaping up well for the Celtics, especially given Smart’s indication he’s worth 15 million plus. We also have no idea exactly what the extension talks last fall looked like. I’d personally let him walk if he signs an offer sheet, only because I don’t think anything he’d sign is going to be worth giving up cap flexibility.
This is what I've always felt. Which is worse....Marcus not receiving any offer or receiving an insulting offer from Ainge for a non-core piece?
 

Van Everyman

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So is this the part of the thread where because Smart has an overinflated view of his worth we all have an under-inflated view of the same?
 

benhogan

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So is this the part of the thread where because Smart has an overinflated view of his worth we all have an under-inflated view of the same?
I dunno, but I think its been pretty consistent around here that paying Marcus Smart what he thinks he deserves, $15M /yr, for multiple years, isn't a good idea. What do you think is the fair price for Smart?

I'll double down and continue to question both Utah (Exum deal) and Denver (Barton deal) front offices misreading the FA market. Marcus' agent also misread the market last year.

Stupid deals seem to happen in the NBA quite often, doesn't mean the Celtics front office should participate in it.
 

Jimbodandy

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I dunno, but I think its been pretty consistent around here that paying Marcus Smart what he thinks he deserves, $15M /yr, for multiple years, isn't a good idea. What do you think is the fair price for Smart?

I'll double down and continue to question both Utah (Exum deal) and Denver (Barton deal) front offices misreading the FA market. Marcus' agent also misread the market last year.

Stupid deals seem to happen in the NBA quite often, doesn't mean the Celtics front office should participate in it.
Exactly.

One thing working against Marcus is that the Celtics aren't in the position of trying to tie up cap space for later purposes or creating tradeable contracts for future deals. And they're not desperate to hold onto guys so badly that they will knowingly overpay. The core is in place for this year at least and likely beyond that. Marcus is a glue piece for sure, and Danny values him. That doesn't mean that Danny should bid against himself. Decisions made now will have tax effects down the road. Danny has to think about that. Marcus is thinking about Marcus. Both positions are understandable, and everyone is doing their job at the moment.

99% of what has been reported in the last week in NBA circles is agent and team-planted nonsense PR. Nobody should lose any sleep over it.
 

the moops

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One thing working against Marcus is that the Celtics aren't in the position of trying to tie up cap space for later purposes or creating tradeable contracts for future deals.
I don't think this is necessarily true. The Celtics really do need some tradeable contracts should Davis or KAT or some other young star become available. That does not mean that Smart should get a 14 million a year deal, but currently the Celtics hve few options to cobble together enough salary for matching purposes. Having a Samrt on a 8 or 9 million a year salary would go a long way towards helping that.
 

DJnVa

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Someone should tell Marcus that the QO *is* the Celtics opening offer. It's now his turn to find another team offering something he likes better or to counter with something else.
 

wade boggs chicken dinner

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99% of what has been reported in the last week in NBA circles is agent and team-planted nonsense PR. Nobody should lose any sleep over it.
Exactly.

Part of what is going on as noted above is that Smart's agent misread the market. They had some talks on an extension last October, and I would guess that DA offered something like Exum's deal which Smart turned down, and Walters said this at the time (bold added):

Happy Walters, the Celtics guard’s agent, said that both sides worked hard to reach an agreement before the deadline, but by all accounts the team wants to keep their talented guard on a long-term basis.


“But Wyc (Grousbeck) doesn’t want to pay the tax,” Walters said of the Celtics’ managing partner. “They’re into the tax already with three guys who make $30 million a year. If they want someone to take a discount, maybe it should be someone who has already made $150 million in their career, not someone who is just up and coming.”

Smart will become a restricted free agent next summer as a result of the impasse, and Walters anticipates a busy market for Smart, even if the Celtics can match any bid by making a qualifying offer.

“It will cost them a lot more then, I can tell you that,” he said.

Walters is trying desperately to drum up a market for Smart. Unfortunately, it doesn't look like one exists. There are something like 3 teams (ATL, CHI, and SAC?) with space to sign a RFA and Smart is competing against Jabari Parker and Nurkic and LaVine and (maybe Capela) - all of whom are (interestingly enough) dynamic players with pretty severe warts.

One other note. I just read that something like 1/2 of all free agents signed a one-year deal this year so for the RFAs who are going to sign QOs and then hit the market as a UFA next year, they better show their value or they might again misread how much the market is willing to give them.
 

benhogan

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I don't think this is necessarily true. The Celtics really do need some tradeable contracts should Davis or KAT or some other young star become available. That does not mean that Smart should get a 14 million a year deal, but currently the Celtics have few options to cobble together enough salary for matching purposes. Having a Samrt on a 8 or 9 million a year salary would go a long way towards helping that.
Sign me up for Smart at $8-9M for multiple years. BUT I'd expect Marcus to feel insulted by that offer. I'm pretty sure Marcus feels he is as good as Will Barton and much better than Dante Exum. And I'd agree with him. I suspect Marcus comes with a little off the court baggage that the rest of the league may be concerned about. I'll be in Vegas on Monday/Tuesday. I'm meeting up with a friend that is in the front office of a team I just criticized. I'll ask him about Smart.

KAT is cheap and needs no help in matching salaries. AD is a pipe dream, but we have 3 players over $20M, we would have to include one of them in an AD deal.

jimbodandy nailed it.
 

Montana Fan

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A two and one at $10 mil per year seems about right. Perhaps it would be a bit less or more but ~$30 million is nothing to shake a stick at. That kind of money provides a lifetime of financial security on top of the ~$15 million he's already earned. I'm sure he wants a $50 million plus deal but it doesn't seem to be out there for him.
 

BigSoxFan

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I think Smart is almost a victim of circumstance. The Celtics have added two $30M guys over the last 2 summers and traded for a soon-to-be $30M+ guy in Kyrie. Additionally, there's the added pressure of knowing that Tatum/Brown are both looking at max contract extensions in a few years. It's basically been a perfect storm to suppress his Celtics earning power and I'm sure he looks at guys like Barton, Covington, etc. and sees their contracts and wonders why he's not in their ballpark. Realistically, he probably should be since his on court impact is similar but he simply isn't getting there due to the Celtics' financial constraints and talent windfall. And since he's more of a role player, other teams aren't going to offer him that kind of money either because they'll be saving their cap space in 2019 for better players.

Rozier has to be watching this very intently and I think he might face similar issues next summer.