Getting Smart with Statistics

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
Again, because Ainge probably thinks Smart is significantly better than you think he is.

You know you're allowed to negotiate a long term deal even if a guy didn't get an offer sheet, right?

Nurkic didn't get an offer sheet, Aaron Gordon didn't, Dante Exum didn't, yet they all signed long term.

You don't have to hold your breath and say either offer sheet or qualifying offer only if you actually want to keep the player.
When you are facing the repeater tax it is foolish to extend a bench/role player when your entire starting 5 will be up for extension during that players contract. This is life in the new CBA. Exum and LaVine were extended because their teams aren't in this same predicament plus each have high upside whereas Smart is more of a finished product. When Marcus signs the QO will you come around to this side of thinking?
 

Manzivino

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2006
7,139
MA
Again, because Ainge probably thinks Smart is significantly better than you think he is.

You know you're allowed to negotiate a long term deal even if a guy didn't get an offer sheet, right?

Nurkic didn't get an offer sheet, Aaron Gordon didn't, Dante Exum didn't, yet they all signed long term.

You don't have to hold your breath and say either offer sheet or qualifying offer only if you actually want to keep the player.
Those aren’t the only options but in the scenario you lay out the point is to have Smart around to maximize winning potential this year, have him as Kyrie insurance next year and gamble that his contract is movable next year if Kyrie stays. There is really no need to take that gamble because Smart has no suitors so they’re guaranteed to have him this year; they have Rozier as insurance if Kyrie leaves and by my rough math will have somewhere around $12-15M in cap space to find a 3rd guard (depending on how many picks convey and how high they are). Also while flipping Morris is probable anyway, as a solution to the tax this year it really requires a team with cap space to take him without sending any salary back and there aren’t a lot of options (only the Hawks, Kings, Bulls, and Mavs can absorb him right now) Edit: I forgot about trade exceptions, there are actually a lot of teams that can take Morris for no salary. Short of needing Smart’s salary for a bigger trade and not having it, the best case scenario for the Celtics is Smart on a cheap one-year deal to delay the repeater tax and then if they want him long term they can make the best offer next offseason (when his market will also be soft IMO - regardless of views on his value, his skillset just doesn’t get paid on the open market).

Just from your examples, Nurkic and Gordon are starters and Exum at least you can squint and say maybe the injuries have hampered his development and maybe if he stays healthy he can make a leap. They also all play for teams that traditionally have had difficulty keeping guys when they hit UFA or attracting free agents without overpaying. Smart would be the 3rd guard On the Celtics (and arguably the 4th most valuable given Rozier’s leap and his role as Kyrie insurance). It doesn’t matter how good Ainge thinks Smart is or what he values him at in a vacuum, if Smart can’t get any offer on the open market why should the Celtics bid against themselves?

By all accounts they negotiated for a longterm extension last offseason. With Smart declining the extension and going on record after the ECF as feeling he was worth $14M+ per year, the Celtics have a pretty good idea of what he thinks his value is, and appear more than willing to let the market prove otherwise. This definitely reminds me of IT’s Brinks truck comments - and for the record I have no issue with IT or Smart wanting to get paid a lot or publicly talking about it. But when you talk to reporters about how much money you want, you shouldn’t be surprised when your team takes it at face value and acts accordingly.
 
Last edited:

mcpickl

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2007
4,546
Three words: repeat er tax.
Three words: Does Not Apply

You won't be in the tax this year if he signs long term, because they'll move Morris.

2019-20 as long as Kyrie/Horford stay, you'll be in the tax for the first time whether Smart is here or not.
 

mcpickl

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2007
4,546
When you are facing the repeater tax it is foolish to extend a bench/role player when your entire starting 5 will be up for extension during that players contract. This is life in the new CBA. Exum and LaVine were extended because their teams aren't in this same predicament plus each have high upside whereas Smart is more of a finished product. When Marcus signs the QO will you come around to this side of thinking?
No, because then he'll be gone next year which makes the team worse going forward.

You keep calling him a bench/role player as though that doesn't matter.

Do you think Golden State has been bummed out to have Andre Iguodala on their team during this run?

Smart is probably as close as you can get to that kind of player in the league, a guy really valuable for a contender, and you currently have his rights.

I don't get the risk of letting him walk then trying to find someone to replace him going forward. Makes no sense to me.
 

Manzivino

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2006
7,139
MA
No, because then he'll be gone next year which makes the team worse going forward.

You keep calling him a bench/role player as though that doesn't matter.

Do you think Golden State has been bummed out to have Andre Iguodala on their team during this run?

Smart is probably as close as you can get to that kind of player in the league, a guy really valuable for a contender, and you currently have his rights.

I don't get the risk of letting him walk then trying to find someone to replace him going forward. Makes no sense to me.
Iguodala has been one of the top 5 in minutes played every year he’s been in Golden State and is part of their lineup to close games. That’s not what Smart’s role would be here, especially in the playoffs.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
Three words: Does Not Apply

You won't be in the tax this year if he signs long term, because they'll move Morris.

2019-20 as long as Kyrie/Horford stay, you'll be in the tax for the first time whether Smart is here or not.
No this is absolutely untrue. Where do you keep coming up with this stuff? The math is out there for everyone to see.

No, because then he'll be gone next year which makes the team worse going forward.
So after Ainge doesn't make him a long term offer you'll continue to believe that Ainge wanted to make him a long term offer?
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
Iguodala has been one of the top 5 in minutes played every year he’s been in Golden State and is part of their lineup to close games. That’s not what Smart’s role would be here, especially in the playoffs.
If they sign Smart, they trade Marcus Morris so there is no reason to think Smart wouldn't be top 6 and still getting close to 30 minutes a game. I don't want him for more than the QO but there are minutes for him. Hayward would be replacing Morris, Larkin and Nader more than Smart.
 

mcpickl

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2007
4,546
Iguodala has been one of the top 5 in minutes played every year he’s been in Golden State and is part of their lineup to close games. That’s not what Smart’s role would be here, especially in the playoffs.
Iguodala has averaged 26.5 minutes in the playoffs the last two Durant years, my guess is Smart after being at 30 the last two playoffs as a bench guy would be in that same mid 20s ballpark on this team in the playoffs next year assuming the Celtics are reasonably healthy. Morris and Rozier combined to average 66 minutes a game in the playoffs this year. That's whose minutes Kyrie and Hayward will be taking, not Smarts
 

mcpickl

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2007
4,546
No this is absolutely untrue. Where do you keep coming up with this stuff? The math is out there for everyone to see.
You should check that math you can see then. Smart at 13.5ish minus Morris at 5.375 adds about 8M to the payroll. Would put them right around 123M. Tax is 123.7M

You're welcome


So after Ainge doesn't make him a long term offer you'll continue to believe that Ainge wanted to make him a long term offer?
Yet again, according to every report last year, he already made him long term offers then. If he accepts his QO, it doesn't necessarily mean Ainge now no longer wants him long term. It could just mean they couldn't agree on a long term price.

Crazy, I know.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
You should check that math you can see then. Smart at 13.5ish minus Morris at 5.375 adds about 8M to the payroll. Would put them right around 123M. Tax is 123.7M

You're welcome
Sorry I misread the earlier post. I thought for a second you were recognizing that Ainge isn't backing up the Brinks Truck for him and meant being above the tax without Smart.




Yet again, according to every report last year, he already made him long term offers then. If he accepts his QO, it doesn't necessarily mean Ainge now no longer wants him long term. It could just mean they couldn't agree on a long term price.

Crazy, I know.
What was the offer and who confirmed it? There is a vast difference in negotiating numbers to see where Smart is at and actually handing him an offer. I call BS on this offer being in the ballpark of what Smart feels he's worth while it "maybe" was a super lowball in the vacinity of the QO.....why isn't it on the table today?

You've been posting on this for days and you continue putting words in my mouth that Ainge doesn't want him long term. Of course he wants Smart at his price which isn't anywhere in the stratosphere of Smart's......that's why there is no offer and why I never believed for a minute that there was one designed for Smart to accept.
 

Manzivino

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 31, 2006
7,139
MA
Iguodala has averaged 26.5 minutes in the playoffs the last two Durant years, my guess is Smart after being at 30 the last two playoffs as a bench guy would be in that same mid 20s ballpark on this team in the playoffs next year assuming the Celtics are reasonably healthy. Morris and Rozier combined to average 66 minutes a game in the playoffs this year. That's whose minutes Kyrie and Hayward will be taking, not Smarts
Which, again, was 5th on the team and he was routinely in the closing lineup. Smart may average mid-20s (though I think it’s closer to 20 with the starters all at 35+ and Rozier taking all the backup minutes at PG) but he’s not going to be finishing games outside of purely defensive possessions; that’s a much less valuable role. It’s not that he’s not valuable, it’s that there’s no reason to pay your 7th most valuable guy above-market value when nobody else is bidding on him. The market does not typically pay very good defensive players who are historically bad shooters.
 

mcpickl

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2007
4,546
What was the offer and who confirmed it? There is a vast difference in negotiating numbers to see where Smart is at and actually handing him an offer. I call BS on this offer being in the ballpark of what Smart feels he's worth while it "maybe" was a super lowball in the vacinity of the QO.....why isn't it on the table today?

You've been posting on this for days and you continue putting words in my mouth that Ainge doesn't want him long term. Of course he wants Smart at his price which isn't anywhere in the stratosphere of Smart's......that's why there is no offer and why I never believed for a minute that there was one designed for Smart to accept.
Steve Bulpett wrote yesterday that the Celtics offered Smart a four year deal worth more per year than Exum just got. Woj reported last October that the Celtics and Smart were close on a long term deal, so not a super lowball. Steve Kyler reported the same. Shams reported that the Celtics and Smart were negotiating right up to the deadline last year as well.

Those are just ones I looked back on off the top of my head.

I suspect that offer they made last year is on the table, or something close anyway, but we haven't heard anything because team Smart was expecting more. That's just a guess on my part tho. I see nothing that changed from this year from last that would make them want him less. Ainge knew they'd be paying the tax in 2020 when they negotiated last year. I don't think the development of Jaylen/Jayson would make them want Smart less.

I plead guilty on putting words in your mouth on Ainge not wanting Smart long term. I wrongly extrapolated from you saying in reference to Smart getting an offer sheet or accepting the QO.

I apologize for that.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
Steve Bulpett wrote yesterday that the Celtics offered Smart a four year deal worth more per year than Exum just got. Woj reported last October that the Celtics and Smart were close on a long term deal, so not a super lowball. Steve Kyler reported the same. Shams reported that the Celtics and Smart were negotiating right up to the deadline last year as well.

Those are just ones I looked back on off the top of my head.

I suspect that offer they made last year is on the table, or something close anyway, but we haven't heard anything because team Smart was expecting more. That's just a guess on my part tho. I see nothing that changed from this year from last that would make them want him less. Ainge knew they'd be paying the tax in 2020 when they negotiated last year. I don't think the development of Jaylen/Jayson would make them want Smart less.

I plead guilty on putting words in your mouth on Ainge not wanting Smart long term. I wrongly extrapolated from you saying in reference to Smart getting an offer sheet or accepting the QO.

I apologize for that.
It's alright we get tense around here sometimes. I've crossed that line in the past as well.

The bolded part goes back to what I was asking earlier........if Smart doesn't come back with an offer and signs the QO will you then agree that the reports were bogus? You said no which I don't understand since you said above that you feel a bigger deal in the Exum range is still there right now. If Smart signs the QO then it clearly isn't (which obv is my position).
 

Eddie Jurak

canderson-lite
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 12, 2002
44,475
Melrose, MA
If they are at all thinking about an Anthony Davis trade (or trade for some other star) down the line, they may want Smart signed to a $10MM+ per year contract for salary matching purposes.
 

In my lifetime

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Dec 18, 2003
959
Connecticut
If they are at all thinking about an Anthony Davis trade (or trade for some other star) down the line, they may want Smart signed to a $10MM+ per year contract for salary matching purposes.
They certainly are not giving Smart more money then they feel is his market for the remote possibility of dealing him for AD. It is also unlikely they are giving him more money for any future deal salary match unless it is a sign and trade. It is just easier for the Celtics to find a salary filler player and not absorb the tax hit now, nor limit their flexibility in signing players in the future.
 

Montana Fan

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 18, 2000
8,880
Twin Bridges, Mt.
Smart really is the perfect 6th man for this version of the Celtics though. He can sub in for any of Kyrie, Tatum, Jaylen or Gord. I'd like to have him beyond this year and hope that he re-ups for at least a 2 & 1. He fits too well to potentially let him walk next year.
 

amarshal2

Member
SoSH Member
Oct 25, 2005
4,913
Is there anyone who thinks Smart is better or worse than the 6th or 7th best player on the roster?

Is there anyone who thinks Smart as 6th man is of little value and should be let go of casually? "We do this need him."

Is there anyone who thinks a team with 5 stars, many of whom will be due for raises, should pay their 6th/7th best player starter money for more than 2 years?

Is anyone's opinion outside of these goal posts? I'm just trying to figure out if there's a real discussion or not.
 

JakeRae

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 21, 2005
8,125
New York, NY
Is there anyone who thinks Smart is better or worse than the 6th or 7th best player on the roster?

Is there anyone who thinks Smart as 6th man is of little value and should be let go of casually? "We do this need him."

Is there anyone who thinks a team with 5 stars, many of whom will be due for raises, should pay their 6th/7th best player starter money for more than 2 years?

Is anyone's opinion outside of these goal posts? I'm just trying to figure out if there's a real discussion or not.
I think the main point of disagreement is what is starter money and that is really good 6th man money. There may also be disagreement as to whether Smart is a really good 6th man or just an ordinary 6th man.

I don't see anyone advocating paying Smart $15-$20M, even those of us, like me, that think he's worth that much as an abstract exercise in player valuation.
 

mcpickl

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2007
4,546
It's alright we get tense around here sometimes. I've crossed that line in the past as well.

The bolded part goes back to what I was asking earlier........if Smart doesn't come back with an offer and signs the QO will you then agree that the reports were bogus? You said no which I don't understand since you said above that you feel a bigger deal in the Exum range is still there right now. If Smart signs the QO then it clearly isn't (which obv is my position).
Again, no.

Why couldn't that mean the Celtics do want Smart back on a long term deal, but they just couldn't agree on the price?

Why would that be ruled out by him taking the qualifying offer?
 

Jimbodandy

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 31, 2006
11,405
around the way
I think the main point of disagreement is what is starter money and that is really good 6th man money. There may also be disagreement as to whether Smart is a really good 6th man or just an ordinary 6th man.

I don't see anyone advocating paying Smart $15-$20M, even those of us, like me, that think he's worth that much as an abstract exercise in player valuation.
At the other end of the spectrum, there may be some people hoping the door doesn't hit his ass on the way out. But nobody is arguing that.

The goalposts are currently set between "he can sign the QO, and who cares if he likes it" and "try to sign him 4/48ish and move MaMo and flotsam if necessary because winning".

Most of us have no real problem with either position.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
11,997
At the other end of the spectrum, there may be some people hoping the door doesn't hit his ass on the way out. But nobody is arguing that.

The goalposts are currently set between "he can sign the QO, and who cares if he likes it" and "try to sign him 4/48ish and move MaMo and flotsam if necessary because winning".

Most of us have no real problem with either position.
That's accurate. Unfortunately, the person who seems to have a problem with both positions is Mr. Marcus Smart.
 

PedroKsBambino

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 17, 2003
31,191
It's interesting that they'd go from Lavine to Smart---there's hardly two guys in the league with less in common. Kings, of course, probably just looking for assets but it's still odd to be on Smart rather than Capela or even Parker if you were that interested in Lavine in the first place, isn't it?

Note that this is mostly a criticism of being on Lavine at that price (and the thought process that would get you there) not so much about an offer to Smart
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,678
It would be the Kingsiest thing ever for a team that can’t shoot to sign Marcus Smart. I’m sort of surprised that they aren’t going for Parker, though, given that the Bucks hard capped themselves.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,678
Embedded Celtic? If they give him a 4/50 or 4/55 type offer, Danny is going to have a hell of a decision to make.
Maybe it’s going to be a sign & trade for De’Aaron Fox, since lord knows you can’t play them together on the floor in NBA2k19.
 

PedroKsBambino

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Apr 17, 2003
31,191
I guess one reason you'd leak that is if you're negotiating with Parker, right? You leak this to get him to drop his demand a bit as this is his last shot.

That would make some sense for the Kings. So, that's probably not what is going on!
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,678
I guess one reason you'd leak that is if you're negotiating with Parker, right? You leak this to get him to drop his demand a bit as this is his last shot.

That would make some sense for the Kings. So, that's probably not what is going on!
I think the Bucks have around $15 million under the hard cap, so you’d probably have to offer a deal whose first year salary was $20 million to force Milwaukee’s hand. Of course, it could just be a frontloaded deal and the overall contract be something semi-reasonable like 4/60.
 

mcpickl

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 23, 2007
4,546
I guess one reason you'd leak that is if you're negotiating with Parker, right? You leak this to get him to drop his demand a bit as this is his last shot.

That would make some sense for the Kings. So, that's probably not what is going on!
Since it's A. Sherrod telling this tale, if there's a leak from anybody it's the Smart camp trying to scare up interest.

I can't imagine A. Sherrod having many, maybe any, non-Boston sources.

Has he ever broken a story?
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,678
How long will Smart last there next season before the Kings develop buyer’s remorse when no one can score more than 12’ from the basket? Where are they going to find a team as desperate as the 2018 Cavs? Well, obviously the 2019 Cavs. Do they have enough expiring deals to make it work?
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
11,997
Agents at the craps table in Aria think that the Kings will do 10-12, and Danny won't match. I wanted to do a side bet that he'd snap match at 11 or under, but no takers.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,678
I think the Kings need to clear the $13 million mark to make Boston think about it, because Morris will be moving on anyway leaving the Celtics about $14 million under the luxury tax.
 

CreedBratton

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 6, 2009
3,753
I guess one reason you'd leak that is if you're negotiating with Parker, right? You leak this to get him to drop his demand a bit as this is his last shot.

That would make some sense for the Kings. So, that's probably not what is going on!
Kings have Bagley, they don’t want Parker. They also have a million centers but I’d at least offer Capela something large if I was them.
 

Soxfan in Fla

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 30, 2001
7,187
You know the Kings will offer Smart at a minimum 4/60. Smart is a good player but he’s not worth that type of contract. It would be the most Kings thing ever.
 

Big John

New Member
Dec 9, 2016
2,086
As an aside, the Kings could have solved many of their backcourt problems by drafting Doncic instead of Bagley. There is nothing wrong with Bagley as a player, but he largely duplicates what they already had.

IMHO Ainge should entertain a modest overpay to protect the value of next year's King's pick, unless he thinks that the addition of Smart will have little or no positive impact on the Kings.
 

lovegtm

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 30, 2013
11,997
You know the Kings will offer Smart at a minimum 4/60. Smart is a good player but he’s not worth that type of contract. It would be the most Kings thing ever.
Out of all the contracts the Kings have signed to provide "leadership" over the years, Smart is the one that would actually make sense.
 

HomeRunBaker

bet squelcher
SoSH Member
Jan 15, 2004
30,096
Kings have Bagley, they don’t want Parker. They also have a million centers but I’d at least offer Capela something large if I was them.
Yeah I've never understood the Parker angle for this reason. While Smart paired with Fox is an awful ideal there are at least minutes available to fill in the backcourt.

As an aside, the Kings could have solved many of their backcourt problems by drafting Doncic instead of Bagley. There is nothing wrong with Bagley as a player, but he largely duplicates what they already had.

IMHO Ainge should entertain a modest overpay to protect the value of next year's King's pick, unless he thinks that the addition of Smart will have little or no positive impact on the Kings.
What problems does Doncic solve? He shot the same 30% as Smart behind the arc last season against Non-NBA length and close out quickness.

Ainge should never overpay Smart or agree to what the "reports" said he offered him last year. I'll be on the beach all day so I'll find out cold turkey late this afternoon if anything happens.
 

cheech13

Member
SoSH Member
Jan 5, 2006
1,608
I hate the "preparing an offer" reports. Cool, how about you just tell us when the offer is made and how much it's for?
They aren't actually at the "preparing an offer" stage yet, they are just "preparing to put together an offer." One would assume that they are now sending out the Outlook Calendar invites.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,678
IMHO Ainge should entertain a modest overpay to protect the value of next year's King's pick, unless he thinks that the addition of Smart will have little or no positive impact on the Kings.
Or at least work out a sign & trade with the Kings in order to accumulate some extra picks and a nice large trade exception to be used on a replacement player. But, honestly, I'll be shocked if the story's true since I can't remember the last time Blakely broke a story.
 

nighthob

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
12,678
This seems to dash those hopes.


Jason Jones: "Was told “not true” when I asked about it."
 

bakahump

Well-Known Member
Lifetime Member
SoSH Member
Jan 8, 2001
7,520
Maine
Let me first say I do not condone overpaying for a player of Smarts caliber. And I would prefer he come back. (QO would be fine by me, as would a LT deal around 10 mil).

With that said, is anyone else worried that the "negative press" of Thomas last year (played through injury for the good of the team, playing through sisters death) and his "un-ceremonial" trade, and subsequent highlight video spat and Marcus this year and the "celtics ignoring him" will hurt the team?

I get that in both cases it was the player (or their agent) who is screwing up (or had bad luck). But to OTHER Players (both on an off the roster) the idea that Celts simply used up one "team leader" and then traded him while a year later "ignored their emotional Leader" cant look good.

I dont know how you fix it. I do know you dont over pay for Smart. But I wonder if these two sagas will hurt Boston even ever so slightly in the minds of Players.
 

Euclis20

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 3, 2004
8,016
Imaginationland
Maybe that's a risk with IT (although as bad as he looked this year, I think players would understand), but I don't see any potential FAs years from now caring at all if the Celtics didn't meet Marcus Smart's asking price (or worse, didn't flatter him by bidding against themselves). This negotiation (or lack thereof) only impacts one FA's willingness to sign with Boston, and that's Smart.