Getting Smart with Statistics

nighthob

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Brown might one day be able to do what Smart does, he doesn't yet. Hayward's valuable on offense, but they have enough firepower to survive without him given the defense.
 

Imbricus

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I guess Smart was due for a really crappy shooting game: 2 for 16, and 1 for 8 from three (though I could've sworn he hit two three pointers).
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I think Jaylen Brown and Gordon Hayward are both better two players at the moment. Nothing against Smart, I'm glad he's doing what he's doing and is certainly contributing a lot. But, I think those two are more valuable to the team.
The metrics we have that recognize Smarf's value (PIPM, DWS) run counter to your take but I will grant you that Brown especially has the skillset to be a more efficient scorer than Smarf and a very good defender. Hayward is what he is and while he is clearly a better offensive player than Smarf, there is no way he has Marcus' versatility or impact on the defensive end.

In short, I am ascribing a lot of value to Smart's defense, hustle and IQ/field general skills in discussing who is the best all around player. That said, measuring those things is tough at best so its entirely possible that I am overrating Smart's value there.
 

InstaFace

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I guess Smart was due for a really crappy shooting game: 2 for 16, and 1 for 8 from three (though I could've sworn he hit two three pointers).
His foot was on the line for the other one. Sacto announcers caught it in the moment.

Shame about that final runner. Did he have another option prior to that drive, or did he just see his name in lights?
 

Imbricus

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The play-by-play guys noted he made a bad decision just before that. He ripped down an offensive rebound with 14 seconds left and could have tried to get the ball outside so the Celts could have dribbled down the clock with a 1 point lead. But he took the ball right back up and got blocked. That's typical Smart going all out, all the time. He makes bad decisions sometimes.
 

Eddie Jurak

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The metrics we have that recognize Smarf's value (PIPM, DWS) run counter to your take but I will grant you that Brown especially has the skillset to be a more efficient scorer than Smarf and a very good defender. Hayward is what he is and while he is clearly a better offensive player than Smarf, there is no way he has Marcus' versatility or impact on the defensive end.

In short, I am ascribing a lot of value to Smart's defense, hustle and IQ/field general skills in discussing who is the best all around player. That said, measuring those things is tough at best so its entirely possible that I am overrating Smart's value there.
Direct comparisons are hard because the value Smart brings is so different from the others.
 

lovegtm

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Direct comparisons are hard because the value Smart brings is so different from the others.
Right—the premium/rare skill in the NBA is offensive mismatch creation. This is why you’d probably prefer peak Steph to peak PG13, even though the latter seems better “all-around” when you factor in the defensive end.

At the same time, elite complementary guys matter: you’d probably rather have peak Steph+peak Draymond than 2 peak Stephs.

Marcus Smart with shooting is an elite complementary player, and those are worth way more than $12M/year.
 

benhogan

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Right—the premium/rare skill in the NBA is offensive mismatch creation. This is why you’d probably prefer peak Steph to peak PG13, even though the latter seems better “all-around” when you factor in the defensive end.

At the same time, elite complementary guys matter: you’d probably rather have peak Steph+peak Draymond than 2 peak Stephs.*

Marcus Smart with shooting is an elite complementary player, and those are worth way more than $12M/year.
Succinctly put.

Especially if the elite complementary player is aware of his role as a plus defender, deferring to Steph on offense and creating space for Steph on offense by screening/picking Steph's defender. Dray was amazing at that.

Getting those role players on the cheap, like Smart at $12MM, is important to roster/rotation building. It also gives me a chance to beat the drum for a certain Phoenix Sun big man.

*in fairness, GSW had two other "offensive Stephs" in Klay and KD, but your point still stands up as Dray played the role of Ringo to those 3
 

Pedro's Jheri Curl

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Zach Lowe and Doris Burke discussed (raved about really) Marcus on the most recent Lowe Post Podcast. Lowe said he has never been more wrong about a player than Smart. He goes on to say he used to think everything Smart can do wouldn't matter if he couldn't shoot, he said that was wrong, he's so good he doesn't need to shoot. They both also mentioned him as a DPOY candidate. They cover lots of good Celtics topics as well.

And Zach Lowe's guest on an upcoming episode....Marcus Smart.:)
 

lovegtm

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Zach Lowe and Doris Burke discussed (raved about really) Marcus on the most recent Lowe Post Podcast. Lowe said he has never been more wrong about a player than Smart. He goes on to say he used to think everything Smart can do wouldn't matter if he couldn't shoot, he said that was wrong, he's so good he doesn't need to shoot. They both also mentioned him as a DPOY candidate. They cover lots of good Celtics topics as well.

And Zach Lowe's guest on an upcoming episode....Marcus Smart.:)
It’s always funny to watch the national media’s 3-4 week narrative lag. Lowe is an attentive trend-setter, and it felt like after he wrote his 10 things column about the Celtics, it was suddenly cool to take them seriously. Everyone seeing them basically outplay the title favorites on national TV then locked that in, and now the team needs to stop sniffing its own farts.

(In fairness to the national media, I have my own multi-week lags wrt which Denver Nuggets roleplayer is killing it or whatever).
 

NomarsFool

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The play on Kawhi was pretty awesome. Smart has also made some significant improvements in his passing, I believe. I cringed on a few of his drives to the basket against LAC, but he did make most of those shots.
 

Jimbodandy

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Apologies if it’s in another thread, nice Smart article in the Players’ Tribune:

https://www.theplayerstribune.com/en-us/articles/marcus-smart-celtics-5-toughest
The most interesting things are:
1. He legitimately thinks that he’s an option to cover Anthony Davis and goes into detail how he tries to do it.
2. Brad Stevens thinks that, statistically, big men have a lot of trouble with guard pressure.
Loved it. His explanation for how he tries to get under AD makes all the sense in the world, but his confidence is insanely high.
 

bakahump

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I love Smart. And his confidence is awesome. He is basically in a no lose situation. the old "fighting a girl" thing.

If those guys in the article go off for 30 or even 40 against him, What ev. They are alpha alphas. Sure he might be let down but its not gonna crush his confidence.

If he holds them to 20 on mediocre shooting then he did a good job. And the confidence soars.

Not minimizing what he can do, just pointing out that its a good situation for him to be in, and he often does well in them.
 

benhogan

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Apologies if it’s in another thread, nice Smart article in the Players’ Tribune:

https://www.theplayerstribune.com/en-us/articles/marcus-smart-celtics-5-toughest
The most interesting things are:
1. He legitimately thinks that he’s an option to cover Anthony Davis and goes into detail how he tries to do it.
2. Brad Stevens thinks that, statistically, big men have a lot of trouble with guard pressure.
What are the odds Team LeBron read that article and looked up his numbers relative to the guys on that list?
 

PedrosRedGlove

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I noticed that too, that "hardest to guard" list is just a run down of the current perennial MVP candidates. He's throwing shade at Lebron and Harden.
 

dhellers

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Imbricus

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What Smart went through with his eye infection sounds horrible:
The first day was probably the worst, just because it built up so much that it started to scab under my eyelids, and they had to open the scab and then pull it out. It felt like they were putting needles in my eyes.
 

lovegtm

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It looks like Marcus missed the whole thing of passing up good shots for great that happened while he was out. The offense looks worse when he's jacking ok-ish looks from 3 with 14 on the shot clock, rather than continuing to hunt for better. I imagine he'll adjust, but it's noticeable.
 

NomarsFool

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I wish he could show more discipline in his offense. I'd love for Brad to sit him down and say "Look, if you get a wide open 3 on a catch and shoot - take it - but don't shoot contested 3's and don't shoot 4 feet from behind the arc". He brings ALOT to the table with his defense, and also his passing. Unfortunately, sometimes I think he is a negative on the offensive side. With the weapons this team has, Marcus should be the 4th or 5th option to shoot just about whenever he is on the floor.
 

lovegtm

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I wish he could show more discipline in his offense. I'd love for Brad to sit him down and say "Look, if you get a wide open 3 on a catch and shoot - take it - but don't shoot contested 3's and don't shoot 4 feet from behind the arc". He brings ALOT to the table with his defense, and also his passing. Unfortunately, sometimes I think he is a negative on the offensive side. With the weapons this team has, Marcus should be the 4th or 5th option to shoot just about whenever he is on the floor.
Yeah, a lot of his decision-making seems to be from a prior era of the team. Even last year, the spacing and overall lower offensive environment required him to take those shots to make the ecosystem work. Now they have at least 2 of the 4 shot creators on the floor at most times, and the offense is elite overall, so that moderately contested 3-pointer with 14 seconds left isn't as good an outcome.
 

Eddie Jurak

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When last Smart was playing, before the eye injury, Hayward had been out for a while and Smart's usage was ticking up as a result. This is the first time since very early in the season that the team has had all 5 top guys available. There is going to have to be an adjustment period.
 

NomarsFool

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Yeah, I remember some games from maybe a month ago or so - can't recall, where it seemed like the team really needed Smart to take some shots - he was driving and taking floaters in the lane (cringe worthy from my perspective - but he did hit at least some of them). I don't really want to see him driving much at this point - there are better people on the team to do that.
 

benhogan

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When last Smart was playing, before the eye injury, Hayward had been out for a while and Smart's usage was ticking up as a result. This is the first time since very early in the season that the team has had all 5 top guys available. There is going to have to be an adjustment period.
CBS was trying to speed up that adjustment period in yesterday's game ;)

Brad yelled at Smart for taking difficult/early 3's in Q2 (you could hear it clearly on the audio):
#1 (9:30): "You don't need to shoot these hard ones!"
#2 (6:54): "Why?"
 
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joe dokes

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Yeah, I remember some games from maybe a month ago or so - can't recall, where it seemed like the team really needed Smart to take some shots - he was driving and taking floaters in the lane (cringe worthy from my perspective - but he did hit at least some of them). I don't really want to see him driving much at this point - there are better people on the team to do that.
OTOH -- Outside of Kanter, he might be their best post-up option (non turnaround fadeaway division).
 

NomarsFool

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I really just feel like all of Smart's offense should be opportunistic, when the top 3 options on the floor don't work out - Smart takes the shot. I think they should never run plays for him or try and have him post up.
 

TripleOT

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The three wings and Kemba average 80 ppg combined. Smart should only be pushing his offense when wide open, and when they want to punish a smaller cover in the post. They don't need him to score much at all.
 

benhogan

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The three wings and Kemba average 80 ppg combined. Smart should only be pushing his offense when wide open, and when they want to punish a smaller cover in the post. They don't need him to score much at all.
yep, makes all the sense in the world. The Celtics Big4 (JT, Kemba, JB, GH) are all efficient offensive players, you want a defense-first/role player on the floor with them like Theis or Smart that defer to those 4 on offense.

Smart does not need to be hoisting fadeaway 3s with 14 seconds on the shot clock as he did recently. He should be more selective with his attempts and distribute more. He's currently 3rd on the team with 6.3 3PA/gm, hopefully that trends lower going forward.
 
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Jimbodandy

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Smart just came back from a frightening and debilitating illness and is clearly both "off" and forcing. He also has a track record of improvement in multiple areas (handle, shooting, vision) and a willingness to do whatever is necessary to help the team (the wet work).

I'm not worried about Smart.
 

Cesar Crespo

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I honestly don't know what to think going forward. I just know when he's hitting 35% of his threes, everyone loves him. When he's shooting under 30%, he becomes pretty divisive.

The bar isn't very high. I'd settle for 33%.
 

DeJesus Built My Hotrod

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I honestly don't know what to think going forward. I just know when he's hitting 35% of his threes, everyone loves him. When he's shooting under 30%, he becomes pretty divisive.

The bar isn't very high. I'd settle for 33%.
What time frame are you using to evaluate him?

As you know, small sample sizes are going to produce fluky results. His increased 3PA are a concern given the rate at which he is hitting them but some of that was a function of Hayward's absence/injuries. He showed last season that, while streaky, he probably was around league average from deep. I would guess that with the team getting healthier along with Smart, we will see him closer to your target than his 31.5%.
 

NomarsFool

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I’m a Smart fan, but I’m actually not that confident he knows to limit his shots. Didn’t he have a 1-10 game from 3 or something like that? I remember his teammates told him to keep on shooting. Unfortunately, teammates don’t often really tell you the truth