Giants interested in JBJ

Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2008
27,644
Roanoke, VA
Figured this could use its own thread.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/giants-interested-in-acquiring-jackie-bradley-jr.html

The Giants are interested in acquiring Red Sox center fielder Jackie Bradley Jr., according to Jon Morosi of MLB Network (Twitter link). Bradley is one of “many” outfielders the Giants are eyeing, notes Morosi, who reported Friday that they have discussed right fielder Giancarlo Stanton with the Marlins.
I'll pull the two follow up posts from the new thread in here as well:

If they are acquiring another outfielder (via FA or trade) I could get behind a JBJ for Chris Shaw swap. I'd like to see another lotto ticket style prospect added to the package coming from SF, but Shaw steps in as the 1st baseman (probably in late May or so) giving them another cost controlled player with pop.

He just hit 24 HR with an .871 OPS across AA and AAA last year (only 37 of those games were in AAA), so he's nearly ready. You could start the season with Hanley at 1st, a FA or trade acquisition in LF with Benintendi in CF and Brentz as the primary DH, then move Shaw to 1st and Hanley to DH, moving Brentz to the bench with a second catcher (Leon or Swihart), Nunez (or another piece of infield depth) and maybe a defensive specialist like Marrero or Lin. That's a pretty deep and versatile bench.

Shaw was number 86 on BA's midseason top 100, so even with the strong full season he's likely not much better than a top 50-ish prospect. Shouldn't be a prohibitive ask if SF is serious about acquiring JBJ.
With the plethora of FA 1Bs available, I'd think it more likely that the Sox would be looking at this as a 3-way where the prospect(s) they get for JBJ get flipped for Stanton, maybe with another lower Sox guy thrown in.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
Figured this could use its own thread.

https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2017/11/giants-interested-in-acquiring-jackie-bradley-jr.html



I'll pull the two follow up posts from the new thread in here as well:
Shaw is interesting but at the same time, worrisome. He's never been that young for the league he's been in and has some pretty bad k/bb numbers. On top of that, he played his AAA games in the PCL. 20bb/106k in 360 PA at the AAA level. I don't see how he's worth JBJ unless you are selling really low.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2008
27,644
Roanoke, VA
With the plethora of FA 1Bs available, I'd think it more likely that the Sox would be looking at this as a 3-way where the prospect(s) they get for JBJ get flipped for Stanton, maybe with another lower Sox guy thrown in.
It depends on how much they "don't care" about going over the LT threshold. If it's not at all and the $237M which drops their first round pick down 10 spots isn't an impediment, then sure, they could prefer to go after a FA 1B. That said, they shouldn't have any real interest in Alonso, Carter, Moreland or Napoli. Hosmer and Santana should be radioactive now that they have QO's around their necks. So that really just leaves Duda.

And if the price for Stanton is too high and they don't want to risk waiting out Martinez and potentially ending up with no big bat, they may want to sign Duda as a left fielder or maybe use Shaw in left field, where he played in AAA last year.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2008
27,644
Roanoke, VA
Shaw is interesting but at the same time, worrisome. He's never been that young for the league he's been in and has some pretty bad k/bb numbers. On top of that, he played his AAA games in the PCL. 20bb/106k in 360 PA at the AAA level. I don't see how he's worth JBJ unless you are selling really low.
It's probably fair to say that in his first exposure to AAA a career high in K% and a career low BB%, both by a large margin, have a pretty good chance of improving next season. BA's mid season top 10 write up said the following:

In a power-oriented game, Shaw's significant lefthanded power and his improving barrel control makes him a pretty safe bet to be a useful big leaguer in the not-too-distant future. Shaw has played left field exclusively since being promoted to Triple-A, preparing him for his most likely spot in San Francisco.
Read more at http://www.baseballamerica.com/minors/2017-san-francisco-giants-midseason-top-10-prospects/#IvJF3RXmklRyTgjo.99
Baseball Prospectus's top 10 from January had this:

The Good: Shaw has power, and lots of it. A big, hulking slugger, he extends on the ball well to crush pitches with plane to the pull side. He has an idea about how to hit, too: he’ll hunt fastballs early, but have the good sense to work into the count when he doesn’t get one to his liking. He hangs in well against left-handers, indicating potential for more than platoon utility. His defense took at least a half step forward, as he was moving around the bag better by season’s end. For whatever it’s worth at first, his arm strength is above-average.

The Bad: He’s a stiff big, rather than an athletic one. The lower half of his swing is mechanical, with a short stride and some issues with his weight transfer, and he doesn’t generate consistent bat speed to catch balls up in the zone or on the inner third. The physical realities limit his hit tool to fringe-average range, and with that bring down the game power potential into something more like above-average territory. He’s a bottom-of-the-scale runner, and while the defense did improve last year it still projects to a below-average tool on account of poor mobility and hands that are not the softest.

The Irrelevant: Shaw hails from Stoneham, MA, a few miles down the road from where I grew up, and home to the Stone Zoo. When I was about eight I fed a giraffe there, and it tried to eat my scarf when I lingered too long after handing it a carrot. Not that the experience traumatized me, or anything. I just – AH! Oh…sorry. Thought I saw a giraffe there. Anyway…

The Role:

OFP 50—Average first baseman
Likely 45—Borderline second-division starter

The Risks: The profile offers precious little margin for error in his offensive development, and while there’s probably enough hit tool here to scrape by as a second-division starter, he’s unlikely to get to enough power in games to offset the runs he gives away with the glove to balance out as an average regular.

Major league ETA: Late 2018 —Wilson Karaman

https://www.baseballprospectus.com/news/article/31058/2017-prospects-san-francisco-giants-top-10-prospects/
Since he seems to be getting to his power in games, the risks section is mitigated to some extent. He's also spent time in left so his defensive floor is up a bit as well.

And MLB Pipeline has this:

The best college power hitter in the 2015 Draft, Shaw led the Cape Cod League with eight homers the previous summer and hit 11 in 40 games as a junior despite breaking the hamate bone in his right hand. The third first-round pick in Boston College history, he went 31st overall last June and signed for $1.4 million. He continued to mash in his pro debut, topping the short-season Northwest League in homers (12) and slugging (.551), and earned a promotion from high Class A to Double-A midway through his first full season.

Shaw's 6-foot-4, 235-pound frame packs plenty of strength and gives him huge raw power, especially to his pull side. His left-handed swing can get long and he can get too aggressive at times, but he also made some nice adjustments to use the middle of the field during instructional league. When opponents pitch around him, he's willing to take walks.

Shaw has some arm strength and played right field in his last two years in college, but he lacks speed and is limited to first base as a pro. He has good hands but will have to work to master the footwork needed there.
I love JBJ, but I don't think Shaw and a lower level prospect is selling all that low on him. I also don't think his 2016 is his baseline, particularly his power output. His expected home run rate in 2016 was just 56.3%, so I think it was likely an above average season for him at the plate. Something like 2015 is probably closer to his true talent level. And don't get me wrong, with elite defense, that's a very good overall player.

If the Giants are willing to include someone like Jalen Miller or maybe someone closer like Aramis Garcia who would give them some nice upper levels catching depth while they try to sort out the Leon or Swihart question, I think that's a deal we should be happy with.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
I love JBJ, but I don't think Shaw and a lower level prospect is selling all that low on him. I also don't think his 2016 is his baseline, particularly his power output. His expected home run rate in 2016 was just 56.3%, so I think it was likely an above average season for him at the plate. Something like 2015 is probably closer to his true talent level. And don't get me wrong, with elite defense, that's a very good overall player.
I'm not really sure how his 2015 and 2016 are all that different from each other minus the fact he played only 74 games in 2015 and random noise. He actually hit for more power in 2015 than 2016. I just don't see why people would want to trade a GG CF who puts up an .830 OPS for a 1b who might put up that kind of production, assuming 2015 is his true talent level.
 

Oppo

Member
SoSH Member
Apr 5, 2009
1,576
No Giants expert but can't see them moving a top catching prospect. Posey is the only catcher on the 40 man roster and will be 31 next year. While they may pair his 100-120 games caught per year with a veteran, they would be unwise to trade their top C prospect in Garcia.
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,662
It's probably fair to say that in his first exposure to AAA a career high in K% and a career low BB%, both by a large margin, have a pretty good chance of improving next season. BA's mid season top 10 write up said the following:



Baseball Prospectus's top 10 from January had this:



Since he seems to be getting to his power in games, the risks section is mitigated to some extent. He's also spent time in left so his defensive floor is up a bit as well.

And MLB Pipeline has this:



I love JBJ, but I don't think Shaw and a lower level prospect is selling all that low on him. I also don't think his 2016 is his baseline, particularly his power output. His expected home run rate in 2016 was just 56.3%, so I think it was likely an above average season for him at the plate. Something like 2015 is probably closer to his true talent level. And don't get me wrong, with elite defense, that's a very good overall player.

If the Giants are willing to include someone like Jalen Miller or maybe someone closer like Aramis Garcia who would give them some nice upper levels catching depth while they try to sort out the Leon or Swihart question, I think that's a deal we should be happy with.
Scouts are not convinced Chris Shaw is anything more than a fourth outfielder. He's unathletic and currently has a shoulder injury, and while he's got decent raw power, he just posted a 5.6 BB% while striking out 30% of the time in AAA.

Bradley had some injuries affecting his game last year, but he's a 3-5 win player when healthy. Belt is a reasonable target for him, but Shaw seems pretty light.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2008
27,644
Roanoke, VA
I'm not really sure how his 2015 and 2016 are all that different from each other minus the fact he played only 74 games in 2015 and random noise. He actually hit for more power in 2015 than 2016. I just don't see why people would want to trade a GG CF who puts up an .830 OPS for a 1b who might put up that kind of production, assuming 2015 is his true talent level.
I meant home run power and should have specified that. Sorry. This article does a good job of laying out my concerns with his offensive approach.

https://www.fangraphs.com/blogs/whos-the-real-jackie-bradley-jr/

That leaves the Killer Bs — Benintendi, Betts, Bogaerts and Bradley. Of the four, I feel like Bradley is the least predictable of the bunch. He’s had such wild swings in performance — he posted a 51 wRC+ in the second half, for instance — that it can be hard to separate out who is the real Bradley and who isn’t. The important thing is that his underlying skills don’t look to have changed, he just has to harness them for a full six months. If he does, there’s no reason he can’t be that 5 WAR player he was in 2016. But given the oddities in his past performance, banking on that no longer seems wise.
I just don't buy him as a 25 home run guy. I think his true talent level is below that and we will be seeing fluctuations that have 25 as the upper edge of that range. He's just as likely to hit 15, IMO. If they didn't have two other CF capable players in the outfield already, I'd be much more hesitant to move him. But with the need for more power trading him for Shaw and signing a corner outfield bat with big pop makes this a team better able to compete in the playoffs, I think.
 

grimshaw

Member
SoSH Member
May 16, 2007
4,220
Portland
Belt really does make the most sense, and it opens up the OF slot at the same time.
He has a seriously underrated bat because of the lack of home runs - but he hits like John Olerud.
The fans really don't like him in SF from what I have heard from a friend, but maybe he's blinded by rage.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2008
27,644
Roanoke, VA
Scouts are not convinced Chris Shaw is anything more than a fourth outfielder. He's unathletic and currently has a shoulder injury, and while he's got decent raw power, he just posted a 5.6 BB% while striking out 30% of the time in AAA.

Bradley had some injuries affecting his game last year, but he's a 3-5 win player when healthy. Belt is a reasonable target for him, but Shaw seems pretty light.
Do you have anything recent to point to? I'm seeing plenty from around when he was drafted and a few from mid 2016. Nothing that would take his growth through the end of last season into account. And again, having career highs in BB% and K% by a wide margin in his first exposure to the level, when he showed an ability to improve dramatically in his second run through AA suggests he's not going to continue forward striking out 30% of the time or walking just 5%.

Belt doesn't have the kind of home run power they need to add to this lineup to make a ton of sense to me. He's a good hitter, but I'm not sure I'm willing to bet on that jump in ISO over 104 games last year. Shaw has massive raw power and has been getting to it in games over the last year. That seems like a better bet to me.

And the shoulder injury is reported as minor and that it shouldn't impact his status for 2018.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2008
27,644
Roanoke, VA
Belt really does make the most sense, and it opens up the OF slot at the same time.
He has a seriously underrated bat because of the lack of home runs - but he hits like John Olerud.
Sure, but the Red Sox need to be adding home runs specifically. They were 27th in the majors last year. I don't think they need to be a threat to lead the league in home runs to win in the post season, but whatever the minimum threshold for home run power is, I'm confident they are below it right now, even with being high on Devers in his first full season. Belt offers them Mitch Moreland with less glove and a better walk rate. I don't see how that addresses their actual need.
 

grimshaw

Member
SoSH Member
May 16, 2007
4,220
Portland
Sure, but the Red Sox need to be adding home runs specifically. They were 27th in the majors last year. I don't think they need to be a threat to lead the league in home runs to win in the post season, but whatever the minimum threshold for home run power is, I'm confident they are below it right now, even with being high on Devers in his first full season. Belt offers them Mitch Moreland with less glove and a better walk rate. I don't see how that addresses their actual need.
My presumption is that Belt wouldn't be the only bat, if they are freeing up the OF spot.
And he is way ,way better than Moreland. CareerwRC+ 128. And no evidence he is appreciably worse in the field either.

http://www.fangraphs.com/statss.aspx?playerid=10264&position=1B
 
Last edited:

sean1562

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 17, 2011
3,620
I didnt realize Belt was so old. But he is a substantially better player/hitter than Mitch Moreland. This team needs power, but it also needs players who can hit. If Belt was on our team last year, he would have been our best hitter by a pretty wide margin. But he costs 17 million next season so I am not sure I want to trade anything all that valuable for him.
 

grimshaw

Member
SoSH Member
May 16, 2007
4,220
Portland
They'd also be increasing their payroll 10-11 million moving JBJ for Belt, which may or may not matter.
If he hit his career average he would blow away any bat they had last year. I'll take that for an extra 10 mill over spending that on the b-class.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2008
27,644
Roanoke, VA
My presumption is that Belt wouldn't be the only bat, if they are freeing up the OF spot.
And I don't think that would be enough. If they upgrade from JBJ's 17 to, say, 30 from Martinez that brings their total up exactly 1 spot in the team HR rankings, moving past Philly. Let's say Devers adds 15 to his total from 2017, that brings them to a tie with St. Louis at 196 for 18th. That might be enough, but it's still borderline at best.

Chis Shaw may not offer that much more home run production over Belt, but I'd rather take that chance or walk away and look for another trade partner before I swap JBJ for Belt. And bosox raises a good point about payroll. At some point there will be a limit. If they are in on Stanton or Martinez for real, that probably makes a prospect like Shaw a lot more attractive compared to a veteran like Belt.

There's a reason I like Schwarber despite the low BA/high K rate. The team needs a serious power infusion for the next two years. Maybe 15 more from Devers, 15 more from the outfield replacement from JBJ and Hyers having a positive impact on home run production across the line up (even just 3-5 more from each player) gets them where they need to be. I'd rather add a few more at 1st, though, and hedge my bets some.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
If he hit his career average he would blow away any bat they had last year. I'll take that for an extra 10 mill over spending that on the b-class.
If Belt+JD are a possibility, sure. I don't know if JD is really in the cards but he should be priority number 1 if they are willing to spend the money.
 

grimshaw

Member
SoSH Member
May 16, 2007
4,220
Portland
And I don't think that would be enough. If they upgrade from JBJ's 17 to, say, 30 from Martinez that brings their total up exactly 1 spot in the team HR rankings, moving past Philly. Let's say Devers adds 15 to his total from 2017, that brings them to a tie with St. Louis at 196 for 18th. That might be enough, but it's still borderline at best.

Chis Shaw may not offer that much more home run production over Belt, but I'd rather take that chance or walk away and look for another trade partner before I swap JBJ for Belt. And bosox raises a good point about payroll. At some point there will be a limit. If they are in on Stanton or Martinez for real, that probably makes a prospect like Shaw a lot more attractive compared to a FA veteran like Belt.
Don't you think Belt's home run totals will go up? He'll be playing 40 games a year in the AL East road parks.. 4 band boxes for lefties.

I have no interest rolling the dice on two unproven guys and don't understand people's obsession with Schwarber.

A 3-4 win upgrade is a 3-4 win upgrade.
 

InsideTheParker

persists in error
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
40,371
Pioneer Valley
Don't you think Belt's home run totals will go up? He'll be playing 40 games a year in the AL East road parks.. 4 band boxes for lefties.

I have no interest rolling the dice on two unproven guys and don't understand people's obsession with Schwarber.
Are people seriously thinking of Schwarber in the outfield or as a DH? Because he's brutal in the outfield. If jbj goes, one of my chief pleasures in life, watching him catch, will be gone. Agree with the notion of getting more power, but there's got to be a better way.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
Don't you think Belt's home run totals will go up? He'll be playing 40 games a year in the AL East road parks.. 4 band boxes for lefties.

I have no interest rolling the dice on two unproven guys and don't understand people's obsession with Schwarber.
Before his injury, Schwarber tore up the minors and was putting up a 130 OPS+ in 273 PA as a 22 year old. This year, from June 1st until the end of the season, he hit .244/.336/.557 with a .284 BAbip in 280 PA and 22 HRs. He also struck out 90 times but it's not hard to understand why people find Schwarber intriguing.
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,662
Sure, but the Red Sox need to be adding home runs specifically. They were 27th in the majors last year. I don't think they need to be a threat to lead the league in home runs to win in the post season, but whatever the minimum threshold for home run power is, I'm confident they are below it right now, even with being high on Devers in his first full season. Belt offers them Mitch Moreland with less glove and a better walk rate. I don't see how that addresses their actual need.
They need home runs, but those are hard to get from LHH in Fenway. Meanwhile, they still need productive left-handed hitters.

Belt hit the ball to the opposite field 27.3% of the time from 2016-17. Only LHH first basemen with higher marks were Mauer, Freeman, Loney, Votto, and Hosmer.

He also walks a ton, hits the ball in the air a lot — more than 46 percent of the time — and he hits it hard. (FWIW, Eric Hosmer's FB% in that span is literally half of Belt's — 23%.) Contracts aside, he's better than Jose Abreu, who I think most of this board would trade Bradley for.
 

grimshaw

Member
SoSH Member
May 16, 2007
4,220
Portland
Before his injury, Schwarber tore up the minors and was putting up a 130 OPS+ in 273 PA as a 22 year old. This year, from June 1st until the end of the season, he hit .244/.336/.557 with a .284 BAbip in 280 PA and 22 HRs. He also struck out 90 times but it's not hard to understand why people find Schwarber intriguing.
And his career mark is .222/.315/471 before giving back value from his fielding. He should be established already being 25 next season. We have seen long hot stretches from JBJ followed by extreme feebleness. Again - it's rolling the dice vs. a known commodity.
 

MikeM

Member
SoSH Member
May 27, 2010
3,051
Florida
Bradley had some injuries affecting his game last year, but he's a 3-5 win player when healthy.
Bradley also put up a second half slash line of .204/.277/.302, has yet to put 2 good halves together going in to his age 28 season.

I get the fear of potentially selling low here, but the other side of that coin flip possibility is that he drops to being viewed as more of a somewhat expensive 4th OF'er type with some upside. Which could happen fairly quick given our surrounding crunch to add more offense to the lineup, and in the event he starts the year off in one of his prolonged periods of suck.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
And his career mark is .222/.315/471. He should be established already being 25 next season. Again - it's rolling the dice vs. a known commodity.
His career mark is .222/.329/.471. You are kind of ignoring the fact that he missed the entire 2016 season with an injury and his timing was probably way off at the beginning of this year.

64% of his career PA came in 2017.
 

grimshaw

Member
SoSH Member
May 16, 2007
4,220
Portland
His career mark is .222/.329/.471. You are kind of ignoring the fact that he missed the entire 2016 season with an injury and his timing was probably way off at the beginning of this year.
I'm actually ignoring the 290 PA as opposed to the well below average production before that. Does the potential 10 extra home runs over an actual good 1st baseman really going to translate to more wins?

It's possible his break out is for real, but I'm not taking that chance if they can bank on someone else.
 

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
I'm actually ignoring the 290 PA as opposed to the well below average production before that. Does the potential 10 extra home runs over an actual good 1st baseman really going to translate to more wins?
It just doesn't add up to me.
2015: 273 PA, .246/.355/.487
2016: 5 PA.
2017: First 206 PA after missing a full season of baseball due to injury: .165/.286/.341
2017: Last 280 PA: .244/.336/.557

So actually, you are ignoring 553 PA and focusing on 206 PA following a missed season of baseball.

In 665 PA in the minors: .334/.434/.619.
 

grimshaw

Member
SoSH Member
May 16, 2007
4,220
Portland
2015: 273 PA, .246/.355/.487
2016: 5 PA.
2017: First 206 PA after missing a full season of baseball due to injury: .165/.286/.341
2017: Last 280 PA: .244/.336/.557

So actually, you are ignoring 553 PA and focusing on 206 PA following a missed season of baseball.

In 665 PA in the minors: .334/.434/.619.
And 3 career WAR since he is a shitty fielder. His all around game counts, does it not?
I know that translates to about 2.5 or so per season, but we're basing that on 2 hot stretches.

People are obsessed with upgrading home run totals, but adding good players is what is going to increase their bottom line wins. Driving in 30 more runs or so than what they had last year is great, but coughing up a good chunk of them is still not a huge net improvement.
 
Last edited:

Cesar Crespo

79
SoSH Member
Dec 22, 2002
21,588
And 3 career WAR since he is a shitty fielder. His all around game counts, does it not?
He would DH if he was acquired. I wouldn't trade JBJ for him and I'm not even advocating a trade for him. I can see why people are interested though.
 

Al Zarilla

Member
SoSH Member
Dec 8, 2005
58,909
San Andreas Fault
All the Brandon Belt chatter here...have the Giants said they’d consider moving him? Some things from watching him since he came up.
1. He’s a really good fielder, which is kind of tough to tell from Fangraphs with their big minus laid over all first basemen for defensive WAR.

2. He does hit the ball very hard, as mentioned upthread.

3. He has gotten hurt a lot. Some of it has been from concussions, a “no fault of his body” kind of injury.

I’d like to see him on the Sox, but hoping all the while he could stay on the field.
 

grimshaw

Member
SoSH Member
May 16, 2007
4,220
Portland
He would DH if he was acquired. I wouldn't trade JBJ for him and I'm not even advocating a trade for him. I can see why people are interested though.
And that moves Hanley to 1b where he is not good (SSS blah, blah)- which hurts the net postive. I understand their viewpoints - the minor league numbers are tempting and recent production adds to that, but if they can do better I would go for that instead.
 
Last edited:

nvalvo

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 16, 2005
21,510
Rogers Park
Anyone who watched more than a game or three of the 2017 Giants knows they desperately need OF defense. The OF, worst in the NL, and better only than the A's and O's, basically tore their pitching staff to pieces.

Turning outs into triples will do that to a pitching staff, and the Giants allowed 58 triples, precisely twice the league average. (The Red Sox allowed 23.)

Denard Span and Hunter Pence collapsed defensively in the same season, and the whole depth chart of young OF who were supposed to play left imploded one by one. They played 14 players in left: Jarrett Parker, Gorkys Hernandez, Austin Slater, Eduardo Nuñez, Brandon Belt, Chris Marrero, Mac Williamson, Orlando Calixte, Justin Ruggiano, Kelby Tomlinson, Aaron Hill, Ryder Jones, Michael Morse, Carlos Moncrief. There were some pretty ugly UZRs posted by this crew.

Bradley in CF might offer something like a 3 win swing from Denard Span, and allowing Span to push some of the non-OF they played in LF to the bench might improve matters further.

So it is no surprise that they are interested: they need a guy like him.

I think Bradley, only a season away from a 5 WAR season and with 3 years of control left, is worth a lot more than Chris Shaw, however, and the Giants don't have a ton more we'd find interesting.

A lot of this dude's power breakout corresponded with a move to the PCL.
 

grimshaw

Member
SoSH Member
May 16, 2007
4,220
Portland
A lot of this dude's power breakout corresponded with a move to the PCL.
Ya, a .289/.328/.530 in the PCL (49th) with a 29% k-rate is hardly a feat of strength. Add to that his 3 tool on defense with 4 upside and I'm not sure that helps the 25 man roster much next year.
 
Last edited:

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,662
Anyone who watched more than a game or three of the 2017 Giants knows they desperately need OF defense. The OF, worst in the NL, and better only than the A's and O's, basically tore their pitching staff to pieces.

Turning outs into triples will do that to a pitching staff, and the Giants allowed 58 triples, precisely twice the league average. (The Red Sox allowed 23.)

Denard Span and Hunter Pence collapsed defensively in the same season, and the whole depth chart of young OF who were supposed to play left imploded one by one. They played 14 players in left: Jarrett Parker, Gorkys Hernandez, Austin Slater, Eduardo Nuñez, Brandon Belt, Chris Marrero, Mac Williamson, Orlando Calixte, Justin Ruggiano, Kelby Tomlinson, Aaron Hill, Ryder Jones, Michael Morse, Carlos Moncrief. There were some pretty ugly UZRs posted by this crew.

Bradley in CF might offer something like a 3 win swing from Denard Span, and allowing Span to push some of the non-OF they played in LF to the bench might improve matters further.

So it is no surprise that they are interested: they need a guy like him.

I think Bradley, only a season away from a 5 WAR season and with 3 years of control left, is worth a lot more than Chris Shaw, however, and the Giants don't have a ton more we'd find interesting.

A lot of this dude's power breakout corresponded with a move to the PCL.
Solid stuff here. The Giants' farm is trash. Belt or Samardzija (at 3/$54M) or maybe Chris Stratton are the only guys I'm interested in that they'd possibly make available.

Sale and Bumgarner have nearly identical contracts through 2019. Their window mirrors ours.

It may be smarter for them to sign Lorenzo Cain rather than trade for Bradley. Though honestly, they may need both. Their 0.8 OF WAR last year was worst in baseball.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2008
27,644
Roanoke, VA
People are obsessed with upgrading home run totals, but adding good players is what is going to increase their bottom line wins. Driving in 30 more runs or so than what they had last year is great, but coughing up a good chunk of them is still not a huge net improvement.
In the regular season this is true. Good players are good players and you will win a lot of games if you have a lot of good players. The playoffs? I'm not so sure anymore. I think a team with a massive flaw in its offensive approach (like the Sox with their lack of home run power) going up against consistently good to great pitchers (instead of being able to feat on bat pitchers fairly regularly) are facing an uphill climb on top of the crapshoot nature of the post season.

I would bet that if you ran last years playoffs 100 times (starting with the divisional round) the Red Sox would end up winning a lot less than the 25% chance you'd give each of the 8 teams. They were overmatched against Verlander and Keuchel. I don't think that was a coincidence.

This team is built to try and win in October, so their objective this season shouldn't just be grabbing good all around players. They have plenty of them. They need to target home run power specifically.

I'll grant you that Belt may benefit from hitting in the AL East, though. Yankee Stadium and Camden seem like obvious good fits for a lefty. Here's Fenway, Rodgers Centre and Tropicana:



Here's Rodgers Centre:



And Tropicana:



So perhaps none of them would hurt him all that much as his pull power seems to be significant enough for the division parks. I guess the question is would his doubles be likely to convert, at least in part, to more home runs?
 

jon abbey

Shanghai Warrior
Moderator
SoSH Member
Jul 15, 2005
70,745
2015: 273 PA, .246/.355/.487
2016: 5 PA.
2017: First 206 PA after missing a full season of baseball due to injury: .165/.286/.341
2017: Last 280 PA: .244/.336/.557

So actually, you are ignoring 553 PA and focusing on 206 PA following a missed season of baseball.

In 665 PA in the minors: .334/.434/.619.
Also he can't hit lefties, which I didn't see anyone mention, .857 career OPS against RHP (605 PAs) and .582 against LHP (159 PAs), I guess Maddon kept him away from LHP as much as possible this year which helped his numbers some.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2008
27,644
Roanoke, VA
And that moves Hanley to 1b where he is not good (SSS blah, blah)- which hurts the net postive. I understand their viewpoints - the minor league numbers are tempting and recent production adds to that, but if they can do better I would go for that instead.
Terrible is an exaggeration. He was below league average, but looked mostly fine out there. He's a significant drop from Moreland, and with Devers having throwing trouble, Xander being what he is and Pedroia in question, I can see the argument against moving Hanley there. It's a trade-off for sure.

Of course, if strong defense at 1st is a must have, then I'm not sure Belt is a fit anyway.

Edit: I jumped the gun on Belt's defense. His UZR averages out to +7 runs per season over the last 3 years. I'm coming around on him a bit.
 

Hawk68

New Member
Feb 29, 2008
172
Massachusetts
Bradley also put up a second half slash line of .204/.277/.302, has yet to put 2 good halves together going in to his age 28 season.

I get the fear of potentially selling low here, but the other side of that coin flip possibility is that he drops to being viewed as more of a somewhat expensive 4th OF'er type with some upside. Which could happen fairly quick given our surrounding crunch to add more offense to the lineup, and in the event he starts the year off in one of his prolonged periods of suck.
To me, we are if this comes to pass we are moving JBJ one year too late. After almost 2000 PA his OPS is +0.93 - no star, just a MLB regular.
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,662
Terrible is an exaggeration. He was below league average, but looked mostly fine out there. He's a significant drop from Moreland, and with Devers having throwing trouble, Xander being what he is and Pedroia in question, I can see the argument against moving Hanley there. It's a trade-off for sure.

Of course, if strong defense at 1st is a must have, then I'm not sure Belt is a fit anyway.

Edit: I jumped the gun on Belt's defense. His UZR averages out to +7 runs per season over the last 3 years. I'm coming around on him a bit.
Digging in further, Belt's launch angle was extreme too. That's a direction the new coaching staff should embrace.

He seemed to be trying some new shit last year. Surprised to learn his average launch angle was fifth in baseball (Gallo, Napoli, Duvall, Carpenter). Boosted his ISO to .228 (and a pretty excellent .246 away from AT&T Park — the most extreme pitchers' park in baseball and especially cruel to lefties). It also spiked his IFFB% (from 6 to 11.7%).
 
Last edited:

Savin Hillbilly

loves the secret sauce
SoSH Member
Jul 10, 2007
18,783
The wrong side of the bridge....
Edit: I jumped the gun on Belt's defense. His UZR averages out to +7 runs per season over the last 3 years. I'm coming around on him a bit.
In fact, over the past three years, he's third among 19 MLB qualifiers in DRS (behind Goldschmidt and Rizzo, but that's largely because he's had only 80% as many innings) and first in both UZR and UZR/150. The numbers make a pretty good case for calling him the best defensive 1B in the game right now.
 

sean1562

Member
SoSH Member
Sep 17, 2011
3,620
I think Belt could be a great addition, I just didnt know he was going to make 17 million next year. The idea is to trade JBJ for Belt, then sign JD Martinez to play LF full time for 25+ mil? I think I would rather get Lucas Duda and hope Price returns to form. Devers and Benintendi could "break out" as well.
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,662

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,662
He's one year older, but Belt's last couple years look a bit like Freddie Freeman pre-breakout. I hadn't realized the park factors working against him.

Playing around with Statcast, also this:

Average fly ball distance 2017 (all MLB, min 100 PA.)
1. Joey Gallo - 227 ft.
2. Matt Carpenter - 222
3. Rhys Hoskins - 219
4. Brandon Belt - 217
6. Aaron Judge - 216
8. Freddie Freeman - 209
12-T. J.D. Martinez - 207
12-T. Lucas Duda - 207
99. Mitch Moreland - 185 (tops on Sox)
 

grimshaw

Member
SoSH Member
May 16, 2007
4,220
Portland
In the regular season this is true. Good players are good players and you will win a lot of games if you have a lot of good players. The playoffs? I'm not so sure anymore. I think a team with a massive flaw in its offensive approach (like the Sox with their lack of home run power) going up against consistently good to great pitchers (instead of being able to feat on bat pitchers fairly regularly) are facing an uphill climb on top of the crapshoot nature of the post season.
Solid stuff overall, Snod. A quick counter to that is that they barely won the division this year, and one would think the Yankees make some big moves. Really the premium should be on adding wins, period because there is no guarantee they even make the playoffs. I think right now he is the superior player to Schwarber and so gives them a better chance.

And really my argument is focused more on the fact that if they do make a run at Belt (no evidence whatsoever this is the fact anyhow) there is room to add someone else in the outfield, not that he solves all their power woes.
 

Devizier

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 3, 2000
19,472
Somewhere
Belt for Bradley does make sense from a talent perspective; they have almost the same three year value (by fWAR) although their performances have been distributed differently.

The AAV difference is significant, though. How do the Giants square up with that? From a cursory glance their bullpen is garbage and they don't have many players who would fit in/accept a utility role, either.
 

Snodgrass'Muff

oppresses WARmongers
SoSH Member
Mar 11, 2008
27,644
Roanoke, VA
And really my argument is focused more on the fact that if they do make a run at Belt (no evidence whatsoever this is the fact anyhow) there is room to add someone else in the outfield, not that he solves all their power woes.
Yeah, I would assume this move would be paired with another, whether that is Stanton, Martinez, Duda or someone else. And this discussion has convinced me that Belt is the better target (over Shaw). He's a better fit than I realized. Much better.
 

judyb

Member
SoSH Member
Jul 18, 2005
4,444
Wilmington MA
In the regular season this is true. Good players are good players and you will win a lot of games if you have a lot of good players. The playoffs? I'm not so sure anymore. I think a team with a massive flaw in its offensive approach (like the Sox with their lack of home run power) going up against consistently good to great pitchers (instead of being able to feat on bat pitchers fairly regularly) are facing an uphill climb on top of the crapshoot nature of the post season.

I would bet that if you ran last years playoffs 100 times (starting with the divisional round) the Red Sox would end up winning a lot less than the 25% chance you'd give each of the 8 teams. They were overmatched against Verlander and Keuchel.
You might be right overall, yet somehow with all their HR power, the Yankees scored 1 more run than the Red Sox off Verlander and Keuchel in 7.1 more postseason innings. And I suspect at least part of the reason they were able to get to game 7 of the ALCS was because unlike the Red Sox their pitching staff's postseason ERA was well under 6.
 

chawson

Member
SoSH Member
Aug 1, 2006
4,662
Belt for Bradley does make sense from a talent perspective; they have almost the same three year value (by fWAR) although their performances have been distributed differently.

The AAV difference is significant, though. How do the Giants square up with that? From a cursory glance their bullpen is garbage and they don't have many players who would fit in/accept a utility role, either.
Tyler Beede took a weird step back last year but he'd square the deal for me. I could also see Brian Johnson, an extreme fly-ball pitcher out of options, being a good fit in that park.